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#2001437 01/24/23 09:32 PM
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Good video!


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Jack Duffin and Quincy Carrier also do a really good explanation about how Berry is drafting players 2-3 years out and how they value depth etc.


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Originally Posted by superbowldogg


Good video!

That helps me understand more of the moves we make like I knew Hunt was going to be let go, but hearing what I thought helps me understand other moves also ... I thimk we are blessed having AB running this roster thumbsup


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Originally Posted by superbowldogg
Jack Duffin and Quincy Carrier also do a really good explanation about how Berry is drafting players 2-3 years out and how they value depth etc.
This is the prudent approach, of course given the fact that you can develop guys like Isaiah Thomas, David Bell, etc


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Salary cap increasing by almost $17 million.



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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Salary cap increasing by almost $17 million.



Actually, this number is $200,000 less than what Over The Cap had predicted and has been using for their cap figues. That means the Browns are actually $200,000 more over the cap for 2023 currently with a cap space of ($14,845,606) in the hole.


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Does this account for rollover cap?


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Originally Posted by MemphisBrownie
Does this account for rollover cap?

Unfortunately, yes, the rollover cap has already been spent.


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2023
Browns Current Liabilities: $266,541,854
Team Salary Cap plus Rollover: $251,696,248 ($224,800,000 NFL Cap + $26,896,248 Rollover from 2022)
Cap Space: ($14,845,606)


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2023
Browns Current Liabilities: $266,541,854
Team Salary Cap plus Rollover: $251,696,248 ($224,800,000 NFL Cap + $26,896,248 Rollover from 2022)
Cap Space: ($14,845,606)


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Actually, no one mentioned the prediction. I posted a tweet that gave an update on the new salary cap number.

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And I followed up with what the cap was predicted to be and the current status of the Browns cap. Problem?


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I posted a tweet and you start off your reply w/the word, "Actually." I wasn't telling an untruth. I didn't even comment. The problem is you are constantly confrontational.

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Did I direct the comment to you or towards you? Tell me where in my post that you're referenced anywhere? The tweet says that the cap has been raised to a high level. The actually was in reference to the figure that Over The Cap has been using which is clearly detailed in my post. You spew so much hatred that even when comments are not directed toward you - you try to make it about you. I apologize if my Over The Cap comment offended you. Let's move on.


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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Salary cap increasing by almost $17 million.




So, it had been going up 10M per year (minus the covid year) and this season it goes up over 16M. Can't be a bad thing no matter how much anyone tries to psycho-analyze it.


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Originally Posted by FATE
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Salary cap increasing by almost $17 million.




So, it had been going up 10M per year (minus the covid year) and this season it goes up over 16M. Can't be a bad thing no matter how much anyone tries to psycho-analyze it.

I wish I got a 5-7% yearly raise


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Originally Posted by steve0255
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Salary cap increasing by almost $17 million.



Actually, this number is $200,000 less than what Over The Cap had predicted and has been using for their cap figues. That means the Browns are actually $200,000 more over the cap for 2023 currently with a cap space of ($14,845,606) in the hole.

I'm sure Berry had been basing all his upcoming moves on overthecap.com and is now frantically trying to cover the 0.088% shortfall.


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Originally Posted by FATE
Originally Posted by steve0255
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Salary cap increasing by almost $17 million.



Actually, this number is $200,000 less than what Over The Cap had predicted and has been using for their cap figues. That means the Browns are actually $200,000 more over the cap for 2023 currently with a cap space of ($14,845,606) in the hole.

I'm sure Berry had been basing all his upcoming moves on overthecap.com and is now frantically trying to cover the 0.088% shortfall.

That is too funny!!! People think that NFL insiders with knowledge of what the actual number will be is using an outsider's web site to calculate the cap projection. WOW! Just WOW!


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Originally Posted by FATE
So, it had been going up 10M per year (minus the covid year) and this season it goes up over 16M. Can't be a bad thing no matter how much anyone tries to psycho-analyze it.

That was actually predicted to happen all along. And there's a reason for that. The NFL and the networks signed new contract deals this year. There's also the new Sunday ticket contract. The TV deals are where the NFL makes a lot of its money. So while you're correct nobody can spin the increase in a bad way, it's the type of influx of cash that only happens when new TV deals are reached. Everyone who understands that knew that it would have an impact on how much the cap would go up. The bulk of those deals run through 2033 so the NFL won't see this type of rise from a percentage standpoint again until 2033.

NFL announces new broadcast deals running through 2033 season

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-new-broadcast-deals-running-through-2033-season


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It would be funny if almost all major football outlets hadn't predicted almost the exact same thing. But they did. And anyone and everyone following along knew why. Hopefully Berry did too.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Yep. And I know that the whole league was spending money it didn't have in anticipation. Hell, salary caps are just a credit card statement anyway.

It's just nice that the big bump comes in the first season we've had to worry about a salary cap since extending Jim Brown lol.

Hard for me to paint that as a negative.


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Originally Posted by FATE
It's just nice that the big bump comes in the first season we've had to worry about a salary cap since extending Jim Brown lol.

The largest salary cap bumps are expected in 2024 where the cap is expected to skyrocket to $255M-$260M.

Here is a good article on the subject. It's written in 2021 and explains how new TV deals and Covid impacted and will impact the salary cap.

An NFL Spending Boom Is Coming, Just Not Right Now

Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com said his “guess is our first real big spike year hits in 2024 with the cap probably in the range of $260 million. It should reach $300 million by 2027.” This means that any wishful thinking that this year’s bad deals won’t matter is misguided. They will. NBC Sports’ Peter King speculated this week that there could be a way next season for teams to have a “bank” to borrow from in future seasons, because “by 2023 lots of teams that pushed bigger 2021 deals than they could afford will need room desperately.”

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/3/23/22345865/nfl-free-agency-media-rights-deals-future-spending

Here's an article that also discusses the major spike in salary cap and how teams (specifically the 49ers in this article) worked deals back in 2021 free agency anticipating restructuring deals in the future knowing the major increase is/was coming in 2023 and 2024.

How the expected salary-cap spike in 2023 made 49ers’ restructures for Arik Armstead and George Kittle feasible

The salary cap, which was $198.2 million in 2020 before the pandemic’s impact on revenue led to 2021’s severe reduction to $182.5 million, began a dramatic recovery this year. It’s set at $208.2 million for 2022. Based on that upward trajectory, the cap is expected to approach pre-pandemic expectations — perhaps $220 million to $225 million — by 2023.

By 2024, Fitzgerald expects a salary cap in the range of $260 million. By 2027, he expects it to reach $300 million.


https://theathletic.com/3189662/202...rik-armstead-and-george-kittle-feasible/

Like you have said, Berry is aware of all this and has planned for. It's why I have zero concerns about the Browns managing their salary cap space.

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35M increase next year? That's crazy.

Seems like this is the very best time to have a huge QB contract. Obviously it sucks that the first year was flushed, but still, we're ahead of the curve.

Do whatever "reworking" we're going to do with DW now (we will) because we're a season or two from that looking like a pedestrian QB contract.


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Berry was trained well.


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Originally Posted by FATE
35M increase next year? That's crazy.

Seems like this is the very best time to have a huge QB contract. Obviously it sucks that the first year was flushed, but still, we're ahead of the curve.

Do whatever "reworking" we're going to do with DW now (we will) because we're a season or two from that looking like a pedestrian QB contract.

Most fans that studied the Watson contract thought that before the contract expires it would be looked back on as a bargain. Now the poor Ravens and Lamar Jackson might think otherwise. But we do not care what they think. The Bengals and cheap Mike Brown will need to pony up to keep Burrow. Just watch what LA will have to do to keep Hurbert!!!


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Burrow's contract should be pretty large... will be interesting to see if he signs a new one this off season or waits until next year..


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Tyler Greenawalt
Mon, January 30, 2023 at 2:04 PM EST

The NFL also made adjustments to franchise tags for each position for the 2023 season. Here they are, per MMQB:

QB: $32,416,000
RB: $10,091,000
WR: $19,743,000
TE: $11,345,000
OL: $18,244,000
DE: $19,727,000
DT: $18,937,000
LB: $20,926,000
CB: $18,140,000
S: $14,460,000
K/P: $5,393,000


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j/c:

Wasn't sure where to put this but considering the trade ramifications:



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Originally Posted by Day of the Dawg
Do whatever "reworking" we're going to do with DW now (we will) because we're a season or two from that looking like a pedestrian QB contract.

Originally Posted by FATE
Most fans that studied the Watson contract thought that before the contract expires it would be looked back on as a bargain

The thought process is correct, but the reality of the situation tells a completely different story.

Andrew Brandt was vice president of the Packers from 1999-2008, negotiating all players contracts, managing the salary cap and handling all players legal and business matters. He warns of the excessive use of prorated bonuses in the NFL. "Myth: Cap gurus magically create cap room by moving it into future years."

"No. You can do that and, sorry, no, you wouldn’t be a cap guru. You can take a big salary or a big bonus (not currently prorated), turn it into signing bonus (prorated) and, in the stroke of the player’s pen, cap room would magically appear, and the problem would be deferred, although not solved."

"The Saints have done this repeatedly with Drew Brees. The Steelers have done this repeatedly with Ben Roethlisberger. Pain is now being felt by these two teams. Some NFL teams are doing this now to alleviate some existing cap problems, continuing the vicious cycle of stacking additional proration upon already existing proration and creating more problems down the road. No one doing this is a cap guru. A true cap guru sets a team up so it never needs to do much of this, if any at all."

So, let's talk about just 2 moves the Browns are most likely to make this off season.

The 2023 NFL Team Cap has been set by the NFL to be 224.8M per club. The Browns have a cap rollover of $26,896,248 from 2022. The Browns Team Salary Cap plus Rollover for 2023 is thus $251,696,248.

Unfortunately, the current contracts the Browns are accountable for in 2023 is already at a staggering level of a $266,605,854 cap hit meaning the Browns currently sit ($13,534,606) over the cap for 2023. This number has to change to free up cap space before the Browns can sign any FA's, draft, or trade for any players because the Browns are required to be at or below the cap availability by the start of the new league year which is March 15 at 4:00 P.M. EST.

Now, the consensus is that the Browns will restructure Watson's contract again (2nd year in a row) moving his salary to a prorated bonus. This would free up 33.69M in cap and when applied to the team cap would give the Browns $20,155,394 in excess cap space to operate with in 2023. All good and problem solved - but is it?

In response to the above posts that state Watson's contract will look like a bargain in a couple of years or that his contract will look like a pedestrian contract just went out the window with the restructures. Watson's cap hit for the final 3-years of his contract (2024, 25, and 26) will balloon to $66,223,000 per year. If you want to put that in perspective, Watson's annual cap charge will be more than 20M per season higher than Patrick Mahomes contract cap hit each of the next 3-years. It will also be 30M more than Russell Wilson in 2024 and more than 10M more than Wilson in 2025 and 2026. Even if the Bengals, Ravens, and LAChargers sign their young QB's too long-term deals paying an unheard of 50M per year, Watson's cap charge his final 3-years will be over 16M more per year to the Browns. This is what happens when you kick the can down the road.

Ahhh, but it gets better. The proposed team cap for 2024 is projected to be 256M (with no carryover) or an increase of 31.2M from 2023. The current Browns contracts in place for 2024 with the proposed Watson new 2023 restructure gives the Browns contract liabilities of $276,401,171 or $20,401,171 over the proposed 2024 cap. Now part 2, on May 1, the Browns have to decide whether they will exercise Wills 5th year option. If the Browns do that (as expected), Wills will have a 15M-17M guaranteed contract for 2024. Adding that to the current cap liabilities, the Browns projected cap costs will be $291,401,171 or higher which would be $35,401,171 over the cap in 2024 for just addressing Wills and Watson.

The real issue with all that is listed above is that there is nothing about any trade cost in 2023. There is no reference to any 2023 free agent cost the Browns might incur short or long term. The is no inclusion of player draft cap costs for 2023. Nothing is included as additions to the 2024 cap liabilities except Wills and Watson.

2023 key Browns Free agents not included in the above costs: Jones, Pocic, Hubbard, Harrison, Bryan, Brissett, Hunt, Walker, and Clowney

If you don't believe this is serious, the following players are key Browns FA's next year and not included in the 2024 cap liabilities: Delpit, Bryant, Elliott, Phillips, Bojorquez, Harris, Forbes, John Johnson, DPJ, and any other 1-year deal Berry spins.

The cap casualty merry-go-round will start in earnest in 2024 - shizz happens when you "just kick that can down the road!" You can ignore this if you want but cap hell is just around the corner for the Browns.


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^ I didn't post that ^ Not sure how you ended up attributing to me.


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Originally Posted by FATE
35M increase next year? That's crazy.

Seems like this is the very best time to have a huge QB contract. Obviously it sucks that the first year was flushed, but still, we're ahead of the curve.

Do whatever "reworking" we're going to do with DW now (we will) because we're a season or two from that looking like a pedestrian QB contract.

Sorry, the quotes were inverted but basically saying the same thing.


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Ah, I see what you did now.

Yeah, that's my opinion on the situation.

More than this, I'm really not concerned about the salary cap. If I had a nickel for every time I've heard of a team being in "cap hell", I'd be the owner of the Browns.

I know this part of the algorithm is confusing... but it's necessary.

Here's the scoop...

Young talent becoming unsustainable contracts is exactly why we should be pushing the chips in right now. You keep that window propped open for as long as possible. I understand the salary cap is a credit card. That, and the escalating cap, allows us to prop the window open for a longer time. We're taking advantage of what the cap provides as far as cheap credit.

Is that a sustainable model? Only if you propel yourself into upper-echelon talent quickly. At that point, the free agents flock to you on cheap(er) contracts.

If it all goes to $%*#, you flush the turd and start over... two years of pain, back to competing at a high level.

This model beats the hell out of 'meandering' at 5-11, like we did for years a decade on end; no FAs wanting to touch us with a ten-foot-pole, no draft pick high enough to get past the Weedens and Johnny Manziels of the world.


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Wow was I ever under the wrong impression. Yikes. Somehow, I thought the Browns set up Watsons ENTIRE contract to be the like the first year. Guess that wasn't the case... again, YIKES

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/cap/


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Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. It also gives the perfect example of how you need so many players on rookie contracts and low priced FA's to make it possible to pay your high priced players. A fact that's true for all NFL teams and not just the Browns. Identifying those draft picks and undervalued FA's is just as important to building a team as the guys you pay at the top. Because you can't have one without the other.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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I get what you're saying, and I agree somewhat. But here's the kicker, the Browns have been dishing out these high paid contracts and surrounding them with late round draft picks and cheap FA's the last 2-years. The Browns might not have been 5-11 but 8-9 and 7-10 isn't nothing to brag about. Actually, it got the Browns the same result, sitting at home during the playoffs. To make it worse, before the Browns do a single thing this off season, they are already more than 13M over the cap for players on a team that has sported 2 consecutive losing seasons.

Nobody knows if there are FA's wanting to touch us with a ten-foot-pole and the Browns still have no draft pick high enough to get past the weak players they continue to draft. Since most of the Browns picks are falling in the 3rd round or later, Berry's 3rd round picks have been a lot to be desired: 2020 - Elliott and Phillips, 2021 - Schwartz, and 2022 - Emerson, Wright, and Bell. Three years with six 3rd round picks and only one, Emerson, being a solid contributor to the team. The jury might still be out on Bell and Wright, but they look to me like nothing better than a backup at best in their career. A Super Bowl contending team can't continue to miss like that and expect to win.


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j/c:

When one trashes the Browns w/every post they make because one is so butt-hurt about Baker, one has to be a good dancer. When discussing Stefanski on one thread, one will say things w/how Stefanski is wasting years of a team w/a great roster and how we are not taking advantage of those great players in their prime. Then, on a thread that is about the FO, that same poster will talk about how poor the roster is and how many misses that FO has made.

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When one says getting DW will be the end all be all, yet sees the results of his first year in Cleveland (after a whole off season of working with the team), yes, one must dance.

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Originally Posted by archbolddawg
When one says getting DW will be the end all be all, yet sees the results of his first year in Cleveland (after a whole off season of working with the team), yes, one must dance.

Provide a quote when of anyone who said that "getting DW will be the end all be all." You can't You are lying yet again. Go back to the Political forum where you belong.

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j/c:

I'm bullish on the Stefanski/Watson combo heading into next season. I respect Stefanski's ability to elevate Brissett's game and expect he'll put in similar work to bring Watson back to the form we remember a couple seasons ago.


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Watson was w/out a play book all year. Stefanski did wonders w/Jacoby. Got him to play far greater than he ever did before. He even made Baker look somewhat decent for half a year.

I think Watson will play very well next year. If I am wrong, I will admit it. On the other hand, those trashing him now won't admit they were wrong if he does play well, just like they can't admit that Baker's flop was of epic proportions this year and that they were wrong about him, Stefanski, and the injury.

Last edited by Versatile Dog; 02/16/23 08:33 PM.
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