DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Key to "winning"...talent evaluation

Here's a quick hit look at the WR position in free agency. How did the current Browns receivers perform when compared to the FA class of WR's according to PFF? Though only one small snapshot, it can give you a pretty good idea where our current players stand compared to the FA class and who the Browns might (or should) be targeting in FA:

PFF Rank_____________________PFF Grade
NR________Baldwin, CLE_________83.3
15________ Cooper, CLE_________ 81.2
29________ Meyers, NEP_________75.6
44________ Smith-Schuster, KCC__ 70.4
47________ Chark, DET__________69.6
53________ Lazard, GBP_________ 69.0
60________ Hardman, KCC_______ 67.9
62________ Landry, NOS_________ 67.3
68________ Slayton, NYG_________66.0
NR________ Harry, CHI__________ 65.1
80_________Peoples-Jones, CLE___ 64.9
98_________Carter, LAC__________61.6
101________Campbell, IND_______ 60.8
105________Brown, DAL_________ 59.5
NR_________Shepard, NYG_______ 58.5
111________AJ Green, ARI________55.5
NR________ Woods, CLE__________53.5
115________Pettis, CHI__________ 53.3
NR________ Darden, CLE_________ 52.9
117________Bell, CLE____________52.5
NR_________Schwartz, CLE_______ 50.8
NR_________Felton, CLE__________50.8

I'll be posting the other positions of need or concern as available.

Agreed and we usually do better in the 2-4th rounds than we do in the 1st. The constant busts we've had in the 1st round are the reasons why we've been what we've been for the last 23 years.

Who the heck is Baldwin?

Here's a quick hit look at the DT position in free agency. How did the current Browns DT's perform when compared to the FA class of DT's according to PFF? Though only one small snapshot, it can give you a pretty good idea where our current players stand compared to the FA class and who the Browns might (or should) be targeting in FA:

PFF Rank PFF Grade
13_______Hargrave, PHI______77.0
19_______Wormley, PIT______ 74.3
22_______Tart, TEN__________73.1
22_______Rankins, NYJ_______73.1
50_______Robinson, LAR______64.4
51_______Onyemata, NOS____ 64.0
53_______Jones, DEN________ 63.6
NR_______Stille, CLE_________62.0
59_______ Hicks, TBB________61.8
60_______ Ogunjobi, PIT_____ 61.7
66_______ Bryan, CLE_______ 60.0
68_______ Lowry, GBP_______59.3
69_______ Gaines, LAR______ 59.1
72_______ Payne, WAS______ 58.4
NR_______Perry, CLE________ 57.8
73_______ Cox, PHI_________57.7
78_______ Ford, SEA________56.6
116______Winfrey, CLE______41.6
118______Elliott, CLE_______ 40.6
NR_______Togiai, CLE_______37.3

I'll be posting the other positions of need or concern as available.

Daylen Baldwin (born November 24, 1999) is an American football wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football at Morgan State, Jackson State, and Michigan. He spent most of the year on the practice squad and was activated for the game against the Ravens in week 15 where he had 2 targets for two receptions and 25 yds.

I won't attempt to get into a deep dive on this but rather hit on a single part of the topic. And that's about players already in the league and playing who hit the market. I'll use a player most Browns fans know as an example. Jordan Poyer.

He really never appeared to be anything special here. Yet the Bills have made him an important part of their defense. Now we can pontificate about why that happened. But what the Bills have managed to do is take the things he does well and make it work in their defense. And while that may not be the only factor in why he found success elsewhere, it is often the case that a good player is simply being used wrong. That the things you are asking him to do don't fit well with the players strengths. Sometimes it's as simple as a player not playing in an offensive or defensive scheme that they are suited to play in.

I think a very important part of player evaluation is to be able to identify those players and understand how their skill set fits your team and your teams needs. If a FO has the ability to do that they can fill holes on their roster with players that they can get at a below market rate who have not been put in a situation to showcase their talent.

bone... I looked at the thread titles when I logged on and thought you were posting about the Browns defensive front. I have been considering this thread for some time (months) and now that we down to two teams competing in the Super Bowl and before the beginning of the new season, I thought this would be a good time to start the discussion.

While I agree that the draft evaluations are a concern for the Browns, my thread wants to focus on all areas of evaluation in..roster, free agent and draft talent. IMO, teams that focus on all areas have an advantage over teams that focus on one area, such as the draft.

The Browns seem to put their efforts into the category of 'draft talent' and I wouldn't even consider the Browns near the top of the NFL in their evaluation of player in that category.

The Browns have to do better in talent evaluation in all areas.

It's obvious we need double down and invest more into analytics. Maybe we can steal some PFF folks?? Football Outsiders??

Are they from Harvard too?

He earned himself a week 15 gameball!

J/c

There’s always the narrative that we let talent slip away, which i don’t always believe … BUT, IMO, had we kept Poyer and Gipson our defense would have been much better off

The last analytics hire came from Ambercrombie and Fitch. I'm thinking a drive down to New Albany and raid Les Wexner's offices of all the analysts in the building! Maybe stop by Bath and Body Works HQ if there's time.

Talent evaluation and development.

Here's a quick hit look at the LB position in free agency. How did the current Browns LB's perform when compared to the FA class of LB's according to PFF? Though only one small snapshot, it can give you a pretty good idea where our current players stand compared to the FA class and who the Browns might (or should) be targeting in FA:

PFF Rank_________________PFF Grade
NR________Ragland, CLE_____86.4
3_________ David, TBB______ 85.1
NR________Walker, CLE______ 82.7
7_________ Edmunds, BUF____81.9
NR________Speed, IND______ 78.4
13________ Long, TEN_______76.2
18________ Perryman, LVR___ 74.2
21________ Okereke, IND____ 73.3
23________ Vander Esch, DAL_73.1
25________ Littleton, CAR____72.2
27________ Smith, BAL______71.4
32________ Takitaki, CLE_____67.6
34________ Holcomb, WAS___ 66.6
36________Tranquill, LAC_____66.3
41________JOK, CLE________ 64.4
52________Evans, ATL_______59.6
53________Bush, PIT________58.8
55________Anzalone, DET____58.5
64________Morrow, CHI______54.0
NR________Kunaszyk, CLE____52.4
NR________Carter, CLE_______51.5
NR________Fields, CLE_______50.0
71________Jones, CLE_______48.3
NR________Phillips, CLE_____ 36.7

I'll be posting the other positions of need or concern as available.

That's fine posting one seasonal score that already has sub-layers to it, but what about:

- How is the score broken down? Like run-stopping score vs pass-rushing vs coverage? Special teams in certain situations?
- Age heading into next year?
- Injuries (see: Walker and JOK)
- This score compared to their scores in prior years. If wildly different, why?
- Their score relative to others at their particular position and not an overall position group.

With the injuries....Walker only played in three games. How do we know this score would have been predicative of playing an entire year? Same w/ JOK. He missed a ton of games, what would a full season have given in terms of a score?

My point is there are too many other factors needed and simply posting these numbers as a comparison between players is not all that great of a starting point to go from, IMO.

and then did nothing in Weeks 16 through 18 because he finished the season with only those two receptions.
He should be filtered out of the PFF rankings; it should have a minimum of 30 receptions because without that much, your contributions are generally insignificant.

Agree that they should not be included just because they have a PFF grade. PFF only ranks WRs with at least 20% of league-highest volume.

No real value in listing the 'Not Ranked' players when the sample size is so small.

As a matter of fact, those 2 receptions for a total of 25 yards are the only receptions he had all year.

and he finished the season with only those two receptions.

I suppose the question is: Is Baldwin a member of the Cleveland Browns? Since he is, I listed him even though he didn't qualify for a PFF ranking. Neither did Woods, Darden, Schwartz or Felton. Should all those players be excluded, or should we just pick and choose which players we want to take a look at? This was not meant to be a negative post. The sole purpose was to take a snapshot in time as how our players did compared to FA's that are getting ready to hit the open market. nothing more and nothing less.


I agree with your point and a deep dive would be required to see the basis for the numbers. However, you have to have a starting point, and this is just that point. The point is that many players get overvalued where their overall numbers don't necessarily match the opinion of the player. This gives you a starting point and each can be researched deeper and should be.

Because the Chiefs have a GM and scouts that are good
At their jobs. Their criteria's on players is different than
What Andrew Berry's is.
Brett Veach is one of the better GMs in the league.
Andrew Berry is a bottom 5 GM.

There is a fourth basic area! Coaching

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs wouldn't be in another Super Bowl without an incredible success rate in the NFL Draft
link



One of the areas where the Browns have room to improve is the evaluation of 'draft talent'.

The Browns cannot afford to MISS on their draft selections, regardless of which round we draft in.

The idea of the Browns allowing their draft picks 3 seasons to develop must be scrapped, imo. The Browns simply don't have time to allow players such as Anthony Schwartz, to occupy a roster spot for 3 seasons because someone in the draft room fell in love with him, that has to stop. I know "what quality" most impressed the Browns draft team that selected Schwartz.

I don't know 'who' is responsible for judging our WR talent as it relates to draft selections but maybe it's time to add some people who have a proven track record of success in evaluating the WR prospects.

Schwartz is not the only example but he is the best recent draft selection that has been "given a roster spot" rather than "earning a roster spot".

The Browns entire talent evaluation process must be examined and improved, starting with "draft talent", imo.

All talk of KC and Super Bowl start and end w/Patrick Mahomes. Everyone knows that. Thankfully, the Browns realized that they did not have an adequate qb to reach the Super Bowl and they did everything in their power to obtain one of the handful of QBs that are in the elite class.

And the Eagles did it with a 3rd year QB (2nd year starting) still on his rookie deal. The difference is the Eagles took their money and surrounded their QB with elite weapons, o-line, and a great defense. San Francisco did the same as did Jacksonville this year. So, now the Browns have their elite QB, and they spent 46M for 6 games in 2022 (actual cash amount that transferred hands). However, as of today, the Browns still don't have elite offensive weapons, 2 question marks on the o-line (center and LT) and far from a great defense. I'm certainly confident that Watson will improve - to what level is a question but he'll be better. The Browns are still missing at least 5 players on defense (2 DT's, 1 DE, 1 LB, 1 FS) and the hope that the others improve - at a minimum, 2 WR's for the offense a #2 TE a solution at center and what to do at LT. Watson may be elite going forward but the Browns will not win consistently without the other pieces being addressed.

The ball is in Berry's court now.

You used to hear some of these same people say that defense wins championships. That you build through the draft. That it's a team sport and you win by building a complete team. Suddenly their tunes have changed.

Which people? Will you please stop telling lies?

I'm not telling lies. This was the mantra of many of self proclaimed "board experts" from the beginning when the team returned. That description should narrow your list down somewhat. I'm not getting into a knock down drag out with you because you feel some need to be offended every time you turn around or take a general statement as a personal attack and try to blame the poster as trying to start a fight. That's a you problem.

I'm simply saying these were the very things you saw posted on this board by the vast majority of the posters on this very board until the watson trade. Then selling the future in draft picks seemed like a brilliant idea. And it may turn out to be if watson gets back to his old form and the Browns win a SB. The jury is out on that one.

Since it was the mantra of many, name one...

I want one self-proclaimed board expert who said defense wins championships, you build through the draft, football is a team sport and you win by building a complete team.

THEN suddenly changed their tune.

Thanks in advance.

You said "these same people..." Well, I'm the one who said that all talk of KC and Super Bowl starts and ends w/Patrick Mahomes. So obviously, you are talking about me. The problem is that I never made the claims you are making. As usual, you fabricated those comments because you want to start trouble and win some stupid argument that only exists in your head. For the record...........I have ALWAYS said that if you don't have a qb, you need to try and get one. That's a straight up fact, Jack.

Please stop spreading lies.

I don't believe that it's an all or nothing proposition. You can look at most any teams roster to show this but I'll use the Browns as an example. Looking at Spotrac as it applies to cap hits for the top paid players on the Browns roster, 8 players alone are set to make 10 mil plus and eat up a great deal of the cap space. Just the top four highest paid players eat up over half of it.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/cap/

Now sure you can restructure some of those contracts but let's not fool ourselves here.

You need quite a few players on your roster on rookie deals to compensate for all of those high priced players which consume a lot of your cap space. You can't just continue to sign FA's to fill in all of your gaps. That's a formula that simply won't work. So the draft is critical in keeping your team together at a high level talent wise and under the cap.

I never mentioned you. Once again you have decided that everything I post is about you. News flash. It isn't. Once again it seems you think you're so important everything must be about you. There are many posters who now espouse that selling three first round draft picks down the road was smart that never would have before. If you're gong to quote me, at least put it in context. What I said was "some of these very same people". That tends to change the meaning somewhat now doesn't it?

If you didn't read the board for years since the return of the Browns don't blame me. Everyone honest enough to admit it knows it's true. I'm not going to waste my time looking up posts pre-watson to show you something everyone already knows. Even you know it's true.

Still not one name...

I wonder if there were ever any threads about which QB to take? I wonder if those threads became heated? I wonder if they sometimes dominated the conversations on this board? Or, were more about building a complete team?

You don't wonder at all. You were here and know exactly what went down. I won't call you a liar but your creative way of trying to rewrite history could certainly be called that.

I'll tell you one guy that always preached that. eotab. The only difference is he didn't change his story while many posters did.

What you fail to mention is that those same heated discussions were about which OT to draft, which LB'er to draft, which DE and DT to draft. In fact even which positions of need should be addressed early in the draft. Because it takes a team to succeed.

But I guess you forgot about those things too.