DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Sigh…the economy... Part 3

People only follow them when they're going up but never when they're going down. So I would venture to guess yes, at the current time people are following them.

Is 3.79 for premium in charlotte supposed to be a high price or a low one? It's three twenty nine, to three forty nine for the basic here, depending on the day.

Not supposed to be high or low. Just a factoid.
I don't really pay that much attention to the price of gas.

1, I have no choice but to buy it
2, My car takes premium. If you have to worry about a couple hundred dollars/year in gas then you shouldn't be driving a car that takes premium.

Seems to be around where the pice has fluctuated around, to the best of my recollection.

Didn't know you are also in Charlotte. Gas prices seemed to have fluxed between 3.09 - 3.39 for most of the last few months. It pops up over that every once in a while but hasn't seemed to ever stay there. There are pockets like Mathews, Carrowinds (SC) that are regularly 10-15 cents a gallon cheaper. I only keep an eye on gas prices because it has such an impact on inflation and like everyone I'm looking forward to inflation dropping.

Gas around here jumped from 3.09 two days ago to 3.49 today.

I noticed a couple months ago that you were in Charlotte.
As the season got closer, i was planning on PM'ing you to get together to watch a Browns game or 2 this upcoming season.

$3.79 is the price of non premium gas here in Portland.

j/c

Oil prices surge 5% after OPEC’s surprise output cut; analysts warn of $100 per barrel

The voluntary cuts will start from May, Saudi Arabia announced, saying it was a “precautionary measure” targeted toward stabilizing the oil market.

Oil prices surged as much as 8% at the open after OPEC+ announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day.

Brent crude futures last jumped 5.1% to $83.95 a barrel on that news, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures soared 5.2% to $79.64 a barrel.

The voluntary cuts will start from May to end 2023, Saudi Arabia announced, saying it was a “precautionary measure” targeted toward stabilizing the oil market.

The move comes on the back of Russia’s decision to trim oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023, according to the country’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

In addition to Saudi Arabia’s output cut of 500,000 barrels per day, other member states have also pledged cuts: the UAE will be cutting output by 144,000 barrels per day, while Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria and Kazakhstan will also be reducing output.

“The selected involvement of the largest OPEC+ members suggest that adherence to production cuts may be stronger than has been the case in the past,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Oil at $100 per barrel?

“OPEC+‘s plan for a further production cut may push oil prices toward the $100 mark again, considering China’s reopening and Russia’s output cuts as a retaliation move against western sanctions,” CMC Markets’ analyst Tina Teng told CNBC.

Teng noted, however, that the cut could also reverse the decline in inflation, which would “complicate central banks’ rate decisions.”

In March, oil prices tumbled to their lowest since December 2021, as traders feared the banking rout could dent global economic growth.

The oil cartel and its allies are looking to avoid a repeat of the 2008 crash, one analyst said.

“They’re looking into the second half of this year and deciding they don’t want to relive 2008,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, citing oil prices crashing from $140 to $35 in six months in that year.

McNally added that while it’s not his base case, oil prices could “make a dash for $100 … if Chinese demand goes back to 16 million barrels a day second half of this year [and] if Russian supply starts to go off because of sanctions and so forth,”

“Then these cuts, if they stick with them, are going to super tighten the market,” he said.

According to Wood Mackenzie, China could make up 40% of the world’s demand recovery in 2023.

In October, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day.

The White House said at that time that President Joe Biden was “disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+” to cut production quotas while the world was still grappling with the war in Ukraine.

Significant, but not ‘set in stone’

However, some analysts say the latest cut is set to deliver a more significant impact than the one set last year.

“Most of the cuts will be made by countries that are producing at or above quotas, which implies a higher share of the announced cuts will translate into real supply reductions than in October 2022,” said Energy Aspects’ founder Amrita Sen, who also expects prices to hit $100 per barrel.

However, Sen holds the view that the output cut could potentially be reversed, hinging on easing global market pressures.

“I do believe if the market over tightens, exogenous issues or shocks fade, they will reverse this cut down the line so this isn’t set in stone for the rest of the year — but very clearly defending a [price] floor,” she said.

“Unlike [the cut in October], the momentum for global oil demand is up, not down with a strong China recovery,” Goldman Sachs also said in a note.

That could nudge up Goldman’s Brent forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023, the investment bank said in a note after the surprise decision overnight.

Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven said the surprise cut is “consistent” with OPEC+’s doctrine to act preemptively.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...ByCCGDJFnVbS8_SvyNyL7_pvV-O2g5JvKXsKQcX8

So none of this will go into effect until May but oil has already gone up by over 5% now. Hmmmm... I guess they must have adopted the W Bush preemptive strike policy.

Oil barrel price goes up and down....don't understand- JMHO, nobody controls except producers. Gas in Tampa Fl area is 3.45 most retailers, yet if you think/shop- Costco and Sam's Club- 3.13 and they aren't losing money- greed by some retailers. What's new.

Very little margin in retail gas sales, it's more a tool to bring customers in, that hopefully run inside for a coffee, snack or soda, cigarettes, beer, than a profit producer.

Costco and Sams has memberships, and the gas is more of a perk in their situation, and in some markets a tool to get you to choose one wholesale club over the other.

Nothing to understand. The working poor got a little too uppity and demanded raises, this world wide inflation is more about greed than anything else. Every damn bit of what we've been experiencing in our economy is was and always has been controlled by big business. This is just them putting the poor in their places.

I do realize that the bulk of the profit gained from what we still call gas stations but are actually more convenient stores, come mostly from the products they sell other than gas. My son in law is actually a district manager for such a company. While he's fully aware of that fact even he can't explain or understand how the price of gas can fluctuate as much as 30 cents a gallon in only a few days time when the price for a barrel of oil fluctuates very little during that same time period. Here in Tennessee just over last ten days or so the price went from $3.09 a gallon up to $3.49 a gallon then back down to $3.19 a gallon.

We are back to 4.00 a gallon for regular. My gas is over 5.

Brutal!

What did you expect? OPEC is the controlling factor. Time to free ourselves. But no. Renewables will never replace oil. So here we are.

renewables that exist today will not get it done.

There is zero doubt this is gouging now.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...lunge-as-investors-worry-crisis-not-over

US regional banks plunge as investors worry crisis not over
US officials are assessing the possibility of ‘market manipulation’ behind recent big moves in banking sector stocks.

Uncertainty continued to pummel the banking industry, despite assurances from financial regulators and bankers such as Jamie Dimon that the worst of the recent crisis is over and the health of the banking system remains strong.

Shares of smaller regional lender PacWest Bank plunged nearly 50 percent Thursday after the company confirmed reports that it was considering “strategic options,” that may include the possible sale of the company.

Uncertainty continued to pummel the banking industry, despite assurances from financial regulators and bankers such as Jamie Dimon that the worst of the recent crisis is over and the health of the banking system remains strong.

Shares of smaller regional lender PacWest Bank plunged nearly 50 percent Thursday after the company confirmed reports that it was considering “strategic options,” that may include the possible sale of the company.


PacWest, based in Los Angeles, said in a statement that it was not experiencing any out-of-the-ordinary deposit withdrawals and still plans on selling off some assets to free up cash on its balance sheet.

With $44bn in assets, PacWest is roughly one-fifth the size of the three regional banks that failed over the past two months — Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. The bank experienced significant deposit outflows after Silicon Valley Bank failed in mid-March, but said deposits have increased since March 31, including in its venture banking division, which serves technology and start-up companies.

Still, investors feared that PacWest’s fate could mirror that of another California bank — First Republic — which spent weeks looking for a buyer before failing Monday. The regional banks that have run into trouble have seen heavy outflows of deposits and need to raise capital. Nearly all have large amounts of low-interest bonds and commercial real estate assets on their books, and would record losses if they sold them on the open market.

Healthier banks have been reluctant to step in to buy struggling lenders. All assets of Silicon Valley, Signature and First Republic were bought after regulators seized these institutions and their remnants were transferred to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.


In another sign of potential trouble for the banking industry, a major deal was called off Thursday. TD Bank Group and First Horizon Corp said they called off a planned merger, citing regulatory hurdles. Toronto-Dominion Bank had said in February that it was buying regional bank First Horizon in a $13.4bn all-cash deal.

Western Alliance shares were among the most volatile and were down 39 percent when trading was halted. The Phoenix-based bank put out a statement overnight saying it has not experienced any unusual withdrawals and its plans to readjust its balance sheet were under way. Thursday morning, The Financial Times reported that the bank was also considering strategic options. The bank strongly denied the report.

“Western Alliance is not exploring a sale, nor has it hired an advisor to explore strategic options,” a bank spokesperson said.

Other regional banks come under selling pressure Thursday morning. Zions Bancorp dropped 10 percent, Comerica fell 12 percent, and KeyCorp fell more than 6 percent.

‘Tumultous enviornment’
The Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation has played a key role in the banking turmoil. The Fed on Wednesday raised its key interest rate by a quarter-point to the highest level in 16 years as part of that campaign, its tenth consecutive rate hike.

The higher rates have prompted depositors to move money into higher-paying certificates of deposit and money market funds. They also played a role in the slowdown in the tech industry, which had major implications for West Coast banks such as Silicon Valley.

Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would monitor several factors, including the turmoil in the banking sector, in deciding its next move on rates.

The Fed chair stressed his belief that the collapse of three large banks in the past six weeks will likely cause other banks to tighten lending, and that would help the Fed in its inflation fight. Powell also said the seizure of First Republic was an important step towards “drawing a line under” the recent bank stress.

But some analysts on Wall Street saw continued turbulence for the industry.


“Banks have weathered a tumultuous environment for the past two months and uncertainty lingers in the smaller regional bank segment,” JPMorgan told clients.

The firm anticipated bank stocks continuing to be pressured due to regulatory and economic uncertainty, among other factors.

“Regulatory concerns primarily would translate into how much banks need to add to capital, liquidity, and debt, all of which would strengthen them longer term but hurt [earning per share],” it said.

with the feds increasing rates by another .25 and all the other chaos like debt ceilings being hit ...

make sure your $ has no more than 250k per account

Many experts are saying there is a high probability that things are going to be as bad or worse than 2008.

Most feel we will have some sort of a recession this summer.

j/c

US labor market heats back up, adding 253,000 jobs in April

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/business/april-jobs-report-final/index.html

Democratic party is like...

We want to promote equality and for everyone to have access to the same things.

Meanwhile, they are like...

We need to raise interest rates to keep everything the same.

You do realize you have been posting pretty much the same BS for several months now and have been wrong to this point, correct? And what do your comments have to do with the fact you keep claiming job growth will stop while it still continues to rise? Let me give you a clue. Nothing.

Question: when they say 253,000 jobs added, are they talking about openings or filled positions?

The banking industry is a sh*tshow. Most major industries are in one way or another but banking might be the worst. They are encouraged to take risks with other peoples money (or with money they don't even have), if those risks payoff in good times, they keep windfall profits, if they fail, we all pay the price and the government bails them out. The whole industry is artificially controlled by the pseudo-government federal reserve.. and any industry that is that heavily manipulated to go against market forces, is going to fail frequently.

It means the number of people who are on a payroll compared to the last period.

Job growth with inflation and low unemployment is only going to punnish the working class more.

If you actually read my posts I have always said stuff would stsrt falling apart in July and almoat all of the models back that up.

Wages increased 4.4% in April. Both you and the models have been on a revolving calendar the entire time. You do realize that the economy revolves both up and down so no matter your prediction, if you stick with it long enough, eventually it will come true.