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AAANNNNND.......DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!!

Kentucky Derby 2023 odds, picks, post positions: Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire predictions after Forte scatch
By CBS Sports Staff
1 hr ago

If history has shown us anything, post position matters at the Kentucky Derby. Post 17 has never won a Kentucky Derby. Post No. 5 has produced the most winners with 10, most recently Always Dreaming in 2017. What's the post going through the longest losing stretch? That would be No. 14, which last produced a winner in 1961 via Carry Back. Forte was the 3-1 favorite after winning six of seven career races, but was scratched on Saturday morning. Tapit Trice (5-1) now has the best 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Angel of Empire at 8-1 among the 2023 Kentucky Derby contenders. Derma Sotogake is 10-1, followed by Kingsbarn and Two Phil's at 12-1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby 2023.

The 2023 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before you make any Kentucky Derby 2023 predictions, you'll want to see elite horse racing handicapper Jody Demling's 2023 Kentucky Derby picks and analysis.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2023 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last five years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also nailed Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic last November.

Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2023. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 14 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but four times in the last 14 years. He's also called nine of the last 18 Preakness winners, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset, and nailed the 2022 Preakness trifecta. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.

Now, Demling has handicapped the 2023 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. Click here to see them.

2023 Kentucky Derby predictions for Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire
One surprise: Demling is fading Tapit Trice, even though he's one of the favorites at 5-1. One of three horses trained by Todd Pletcher in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, this son of Tapit by Danzatrice has won his last four starts. After finishing third in his debut at Aqueduct last November, Tapit Trice returned to the same track six weeks later and managed to break his maiden.

He followed that up with a win in an allocation race at Gulfstream Park and then collected 150 qualifying points with wins at the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. Distance may not be an issue given his pedigree, but the legendary sire Tapit has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Plus, for all Pletcher's considerable successes, he's only managed a 3.2% win rate and a 12.9% cash rate in 62 previous Derby starts. See who else to fade here.

Demling also has a strong read on Angel of Empire, the third favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2023 at 8-1. He got off to a mediocre start at the Arkansas Derby, but used a late push to pull away in a convincing victory to punch his ticket to Churchill Downs. Angel of Empire showed the acceleration needed to win the Kentucky Derby and has trained well over the past month.

However, his running style could become an issue if the Kentucky Derby 2023 is run at a slower pace, and the competition in the Arkansas Derby was lackluster. The second-place finisher was a 58-1 longshot, potentially making it tough to gauge how Angel of Empire will fare on Saturday. He has produced four victories and one second-place finish in six career starts, though, giving him the form needed to be considered a contender in the biggest race of the year. See where Angel of Empire finishes here.

How to make 2023 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a big longshot who "has looked outstanding training at Churchill Downs and will be there with a shot in the end." Anyone who backs this horse could hit it big. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

Where do Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and every other horse finish in the 2023 Kentucky Derby? And which enormous long shot is a must-back? Check out the Kentucky Derby odds 2023 below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 14 years.

2023 Kentucky Derby odds, horses, post draw
HORSE ODDS PROGRAM # PROJECTION
Forte SCR SCR
Tapit Trice 5-1 5 SEE PICKS
Angel of Empire 8-1 14 SEE PICKS
Derma Sotogake 10-1 20 SEE PICKS
Practical Move SCR SCR
Kingsbarn 12-1 6 SEE PICKS
Two Phil's 12-1 3 SEE PICKS
Mage 15-1 8 SEE PICKS
Verifying 15-1 2 SEE PICKS
Confidence Game 20-1 4 SEE PICKS
Mandarin Hero 20-1 22 SEE PICKS
Skinner SCR SCR
Cyclone Mischief 30-1 21 SEE PICKS
Disarm 30-1 11 SEE PICKS
Hit Show 30-1 1 SEE PICKS
Lord Miles SCR SCR
Rocket Can 30-1 18 SEE PICKS
Continuar SCR SCR
Jace's Road 50-1 12 SEE PICKS
King Russell 50-1 23 SEE PICKS
Raise Cain 50-1 16 SEE PICKS
Sun Thunder 50-1 13 SEE PICKS
Reincarnate 50-1 7 SEE PICKS


Let this sink in..... On 12-31-23 it be will 123123.
On the flip side, you can tune a piano but you can't tune-a-fish.


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This year there has been some odd happenings surrounding the derby..............

Churchill Downs: After four horses die, home of Kentucky Derby calls circumstances ‘unacceptable’ and ‘troubling’

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/03/sport/churchill-downs-kentucky-derby-horse-deaths-spt-inl/index.html

Trainer suspended from Kentucky Derby after two of his horses mysteriously die after races

The decision comes after the deaths of Parents Pride on Saturday and Chasing Artie on Tuesday. Both collapsed on the track and died after races.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...o-horses-mysteriously-die-race-rcna83021

I'm not sure exactly what the hell is going on here but I find this very disturbing.


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It says post is 6:57PM. At 2:30 they still have several races and thousands of Mint Julips to sell


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I am rooting for Angel of Empire


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Gotcha.....

Spectrum has the "Kentucky Derby Prep Races" till 2:30 pm followed by the "149th Kentucky Derby" at 2:30pm.

No doubt other races before the "actual" Kentucky Derby. thumbsup .....and/or more focused on the hoopla till the race is ran.

Last edited by TTTDawg; 05/06/23 01:51 PM.

Let this sink in..... On 12-31-23 it be will 123123.
On the flip side, you can tune a piano but you can't tune-a-fish.


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NBC has live coverage that began at noon E.S.T. and continues until 7:00 P.M.


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Originally Posted by PitDAWG
NBC has live coverage that began at noon E.S.T. and continues until 7:00 P.M.

Do they think this is the Super Bowl or something...

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The actual Kentucky Derby race is at 6:45pm.


And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir

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Originally Posted by FrankZ
Originally Posted by PitDAWG
NBC has live coverage that began at noon E.S.T. and continues until 7:00 P.M.

Do they think this is the Super Bowl or something...

It depends on who you ask I suppose. I know I wouldn't watch it for 7 hours. But then again I don't watch SB coverage for 7 hours on SB day either.


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Originally Posted by FrankZ
Originally Posted by PitDAWG
NBC has live coverage that began at noon E.S.T. and continues until 7:00 P.M.

Do they think this is the Super Bowl or something...

Its a giant all day drinking and gambling and dress up party for rich people. Us commoners can participate from home. I have my mint leaves ready.


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Omg Cody's Wish won his early race. What a story! I have goosebumps.


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That was awesome!! That was quite a story and race.

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Welp, I looked at the horses for the first time five min. ago, and,
as they walked up, 2, looked stout, so I said I liked, mage, and jaces road,
and then picked said jaces road probably picking the wrong one, and,, so I picked the wrong one,
when the left the gate they said jaces road had an early lead and never mentioned him again,
and then
mage won, ... or crossed the line first, ... who knows how the usa will take it away from him, but sadly that seems what American sports has come to.

I've not been that close in picking, in the last few years, but I think that's a fun way to do it,
didn't even learn the horses until they were walking up to the line.


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I may have had it tuned in for more than 4 hours but didn't even pay attention to it until after they blew the trumpet thing, so NBC probably has a money maker to keep the coverage. It is almost like the super bowl,
I certainaly haven't watched, any golf tournament, or tennis thing, or even the world series for 30+ times
but,
I'm pretty sure it just ends up I see the Kentucky derby every year,
because it's the first of the 3.
and it' not boring,
and there is only one thing to watch, not 4000 golfers individual shots,


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Mage wins star-crossed Kentucky Derby amid 7th death

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — After seven deaths raised questions about the future of horse racing, Mage earned a surprising Kentucky Derby victory on Saturday, capping a nerve-rattling day that included two more fatalities ahead of the 149th edition of the world’s most famous race.

Mage, a 15-1 shot, had only one win in his career, giving little indication that he could triumph against 17 rivals in a race that is not kind to the inexperienced.

Still, he made a gutsy stretch run, overtaking Two Phil’s to his inside and winning by a length. Mage, who didn’t race as a 2-year-old, ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.57.

Mage joined Justify (2018), Big Brown (2008) and Regret (2015) as Derby winners with just three previous starts.

“He proved today that it didn’t matter,” assistant trainer and co-owner Gustavo Delgado Jr. said.

The colt was in the skilled hands of Javier Castellano, a Hall of Fame jockey who hasn’t been as in-demand lately. The 45-year-old Castellano snapped an 0-for-15 skid in the Derby.

“I never give up,” Castellano said. “I always try hard to do the right thing. It took me a little while to get there. I finally got it.”

Castellano and trainer Gustavo Delgado are from Venezuela. Mage joined Canonero II as Derby winners with Venezuelan ties. Canonero II won the Derby and Preakness in 1971.

Going into the backstretch, Mage was ahead of just three horses. Castellano and Mage began picking off the competition and on the far turn launched their run.

“Turning for home, he had a lot of heart,” Castellano said. “He’s a little horse with a big heart.”

Two Phil’s stormed to the lead at the top of the stretch. Mage swung to the outside and took aim on the leader. Mage passed him at the eighth-pole and went on to victory.

“Everything went according to plan,” Delgado Jr. said. “This is the dream I have, a year-and-a-half ago, I wrote a note: ‘We’re going to win the Derby next year.’”

Forte, the early favorite, was scratched in the morning with a bruised foot, one of five horses that dropped out in the run-up to the race.

Mage paid $32.42, $14.58 and $9.08. The colt earned $1,860,000 for the biggest win of his brief career.

Two Phil’s returned $10.44 and $6.52.

“Man, he tried so hard and ran his heart out,” said Larry Rivelli, who trains Two Phil’s.

Angel of Empire, the 4-1 favorite, was another half-length back in third in front of a crowd of 150,335 on a warm and partly cloudy day at Churchill Downs. He paid $4.70 to show.

Earlier in the day, Chloe’s Dream, a 3-year-old gelding, and Freezing Point, a 3-year-old colt, were euthanized after being injured in their races, becoming the sixth and seventh horses to have died at the track in recent days.

“It’s a very difficult subject to touch upon,” said Ramiro Restrepo, part of Mage’s ownership and a blood stock agent. “I’m sure there’s going to be some investigations done as to the reason behind that, and hopefully that provides a few more answers.”

The string of horse deaths was on the mind of some Derby-goers.

“It’s concerning, and I hope they’re quickly trying the best they can to correct whatever’s going on,” said Michael Freeze, who along with his friend dressed up as jockeys. “They need to do whatever is best for the horses, and the sport in general.”

Chloe’s Dream injured his right front knee, trainer Jeff Hiles told The Associated Press.

“He just took a bad step out there,” Hiles said. “They could do the same thing running in the field as they could on the track. So it’s very unfortunate. That’s what we deal with.”

Freezing Point suffered a left ankle injury in the Pat Day Mile, trainer Joe Lejzerowicz told the AP.

“He just got bumped in the backstretch,” Lejzerowicz said. “He never took a bad step or bobble. He had a big heart.”

New antidoping and medication rules enforced by a central governing body of the sport are scheduled to take effect May 22.

“All I can say is we do our best to take care of our horses. We treat them better than we treat our children. And we have full confidence in the soundness of our horse,” Restrepo said. “We’ve been training here for two weeks, and he actually has been flourishing at this racetrack.”

The deaths included Derby contender Wild On Ice. Two of the horses were trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. He was indefinitely suspended by the track, although investigators have yet to determine a cause for the deaths of his horses.

A relieved Tim Yakteen, who trained Reincarnate to a 13th-place finish, said, “The most important thing is the horse came out of it OK.”

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, a two-time Triple Crown winner, is nearing the end of a two-year ban issued by Churchill Downs Inc. One of his horses, Medina Spirit, crossed the finish line first in the 2021 Derby and failed a post-race drug test. The horse was disqualified and Baffert was punished.

In 2019, over 30 horse deaths occurred at California’s Santa Anita racetrack, rattling the industry and leading to safety reforms. Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Rick Dutrow had his license revoked in 2011 for 10 years by New York officials. Regulators found syringes loaded with unauthorized medication in a desk in his barn. Dutrow served his punishment and re-opened his stable last month.

Four horses were scratched — Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar and Skinner — in recent days. Practical Move and Skinner had fevers, while Continuar wasn’t in peak condition, according to his Japanese trainer. Lord Miles was Joseph’s Derby horse.

Disarm was fourth, followed by Hit Show, Japan-based Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice and Raise Cain, Rocket Can, Confidence Game, Sun Thunder, Japan’s Mandarin Hero, Reincarnate, Kingsbarns, King Russell, Verifying, Jace’s Road and Cyclone Mischief.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-ne...Z3H-sZgsSGawDyhR9pk8wMY97aTwGiW45FhHHl-Q


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Originally Posted by EveDawg
Omg Cody's Wish won his early race. What a story! I have goosebumps.

Loved that he won!!

Overall, great day of racing...


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Back in the day I enjoyed horse and harness racing. I was never a big bettor, but most time I had $200-300 in hand to wager if I felt the need. I finally cam to the conclusion that racing is too hard to rig. Most jocks, especially at the local lower levels don't make all that much money. The rig happens not so much on who wins, but who doesn't win.

It doesn't take a whole lot of money to get a couple of jocks to work to block up a odds on favorite. Make him run wide here, squeeze him there.

I think it happens at the track level. It cheaper for the track to pay some longer shot not many people pick over a favorite everybody picks. I saw that in harness racing all the time. Some broken down trotter and have dollar joke make the favorite run wide to avoid locking up the wheels.

I went to the dogs. No jocks to worry about, but then trainers became the target, so now I don't bet at all, or very little. In comparable dollars to then, I go with about $50 in my pocket, which might be $100, and go with simply for entertainment value.


Don't even get me stated on Jai-alai. The most rigged of wagering sports ever.


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Originally Posted by jaybird
Originally Posted by EveDawg
Omg Cody's Wish won his early race. What a story! I have goosebumps.

Loved that he won!!

Overall, great day of racing...

Glad you quoted that, I had no idea. Great story!


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Not sure what is going on, but the deaths of all these horses is extremely alarming.

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Not sure what is going on, but the deaths of all these horses is extremely alarming.

I don't know. Maybe bad training.

All I know is broken ankles and legs have turned in to dead horses for as long as people have been riding horses. When they were running wild a free I am sure many broke a bone, couldn't run any longer and dies a slow death to wolves and vultures. Neither waits for the animal to die before starting to eat them.

So should we put them down or set them out in to the wilds?


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Only this year, some of those deaths didn't come from injuries to the horses and the total number of scratches on race day hadn't been equaled since the 1930's. Something odd is going on here. Here is a portion of an article from a Louisville newspaper.

Quote
Two Joseph-trained horses both collapsed and died under similar circumstances. The former was Parents Pride after April 29's eighth race, and the latter was Chasing Artie after Tuesday's eighth race.

Churchill Downs called the deaths of Parents Pride and Chasing Artie “highly unusual" and rationalized Joseph's subsequent suspension with a call for utmost caution.

“Given the unexplained sudden deaths, we have reasonable concerns about the condition of his horses and decided to suspend him indefinitely until details are analyzed and understood,” said Bill Mudd, President and Chief Operating Officer of Churchill Downs Inc. “The safety of our equine and human athletes and integrity of our sport is our highest priority. We feel these measures are our duty and responsibility.”

“Something’s not right,” Joseph said. “These horses, it wasn’t because of injury. They left the gate and didn’t even try and then dropped down. … Theories aren’t going to help. We need facts."

Joseph said Parents Pride and Chasing Artie had been stabled at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs. Before the KHRC's ruling Thursday afternoon, Joseph had scratched several horses set to run Thursday, Friday and Saturday who also had been stabled at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill.

"If there is something going on over there like contamination — or we don't know what it is — some virus or something, we don't know," Joseph said Thursday morning. "We have no answers. I mean, there's a lot of questions. There's a lot of thoughts, but there's nothing right now."

https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...l-downs-kentucky-derby-2023/70186871007/


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Thoroughbred breeders are irresponsible. They don't breed to remove defects and produce good strong stock. They breed to whoever might give them the fastest foal. As a result they are horribly inbred with a lot of defects. It's one of the reasons the horses break down.


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only gambling I do is playing poker occasionally and buying lotto tickets...


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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Not sure what is going on, but the deaths of all these horses is extremely alarming.

Agree.. can't remember a time this many horses died at an event..


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Originally Posted by EveDawg
Thoroughbred breeders are irresponsible. They don't breed to remove defects and produce good strong stock. They breed to whoever might give them the fastest foal. As a result they are horribly inbred with a lot of defects. It's one of the reasons the horses break down.

I agree. It's all about this Sire or this Mare. Sooner or later you have too many cousins breeding. It is now Thorouglyinbred breeders.

They need to start breeding some Clydesdale stock in to some of these horses to build up the horses a few generations down the line. Sleek is one thing. Sleek and frail is another.

That is what made Secretariat a freak. Big Red was called that for a reason, he was a big ass horse. At his necropsy, it was found his heart weighed 22lbs. That is twice the size of a typical horse.

I still like watching this as I did live back in college.



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Originally Posted by Ballpeen

Wow. Haven't seen that in quite a while. Goosebumps.


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He still holds the track record today....like 2 seconds. Two seconds for a horse at full speed is what, maybe 40-50 yards? It's a lot.

If a fast human can cover 40 yards in 4.3 seconds, a horse at full gallop can do 50 in 2, give or take.


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