DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Future of Nick Chubb

I think many people here would list Nick Chubb as one of their top 3 favorite current Browns, maybe one of their favorite players ever. That said, Chubb is reaching the golden years for a RB and we've all seen the value drop on the position in the modern day NFL. Below is his 2024 salary and cap info. Many on here have suggested, correctly so IMO, that the 2024 year of the contract breakdown will be addressed by the FO in the sense of a restructure/extend or an outright release. Releasing him would add $12,200,000 to the books in 2024. I suppose the progress of other RBs plays into the equation but what should the Browns do with Chubb moving forward in your opinion? Cut bait and reallocate resources elsewhere while losing a player who could still produce or look to restructure that would most likely include an extension to a position group whose value has diminished and with a player who would hit his 30s??

Base Salary: $11,775,000
Cap Hit: $16,200,00
Dead Cap (if released): $4,000,000

-------------------------------------------

PRE-6/1 RELEASE
2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000
2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000

PRE-6/1 TRADE
2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000
2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000

POST-6/1 RELEASE
2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000
2025 Dead Cap: $0
2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000

POST-6/1 TRADE
2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000
2025 Dead Cap: $0
2024 Cap Savings: $12,200,000

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/nick-chubb-25134/#:~:text=Nick%20Chubb%20signed%20a%203,dead%20cap%20value%20of%20%2410%2C860%2C000.

As has been discussed many times before, many people, me included, do not expect Chubb to be here next year. First one has to look at this from a business aspect. Because for the decision makers that's what it all revolves around. Their actions tell the story of what their strategy is moving forward and you can look around the NFL to see how that strategy plays out.

They signed watson to that 230 million guaranteed contract. So their chips are all in on him becoming the QB he used to be and not the one they saw the last six games of 2023. As such they upgraded the WR position by not only signing FA WR's but by also using their first draft pick to upgrade the position. Their hopes and investment show they are planning on watson once again becoming what they see as a prolific QB. If that comes to pass opposing defenses will have to play the passing game heavily while no longer being able to stack the box against the running game.

We have seen across the league where teams no longer have to have a top 5 or even top 10 RB to produce well in the running game when they can achieve such a scenario. So why would a team pay big money at the RB position when they can get good production in the running game while paying a fraction of that cost? From a business standpoint they wouldn't. And in this case I don't believe they will.

It was too cost prohibitive to make such a move this year, but not so much next season. Don't get me wrong, Chubb is a prime example of the very type of player I love seeing on the Browns roster. I would love nothing more than to see him spend his entire career as a Brown and retire as a Brown. But the NFL isn't the same as it was 30, 20 or even 10 years ago.

The Browns have a plan in place whether that proves to be a successful one or not. At this point they are all in. And paying big money at the RB position won't be a part of that plan moving forward.

As sad as it is to say, I don’t think he finishes his career in Cleveland. The moment we traded for Watson, that was gonna be our identity and direction. And we can’t afford to pay a RB what Nick deserves

I list Chubb in my Top 1 favorite players on this team.

I'm not sure how much longer he will be around, and I am not even going to try and guess, but I know I will be sad when he is no longer a Brown.

I think the bottom line is that the FO would like Chubb to stay but it's a matter of economics.

Why would they like him to stay? He's still a very productive RB. And if he does stay, the goal would to transcend him into the second half of a one-two-punch while making a younger back the 'jab'.

Why should Chubb want to stay and take a pay cut? Because he's had a very productive, five year career. We're getting close to the time when the right situation can prolong his career, in the city he was drafted, with a fan base that loves him, on an above-average-to-good team, that doesn't need to run him into the ground. Over the long haul, if the numbers are decent, that would/could actually benefit him.

My question to you Memphis: Although we obviously can't forecast the future or extrapolate his past productivity into the future; what would a three year extension for Chubb look like if your were GM?

I believe that the Browns actually like Nick Chubb and he will be around for as long as he is productive.

What is crazy is that Chubb has played in 75 games as a Brown. Chubb will likely be here another 3-5 years. He is only 27 and is super healthy.

He should get to 10k rushing yards and 2500 in receiving.

Jim Brown played in 118 total and has more than 2x as many yards as Chubb and is averaging 30 more yards a game.

People need to enjoy Nick Chubb instead of listening to that (OBR) bean counting green horn from across the pond.

A player is not just a number Jack! ... and speeking of numbers Chubb is have a HOF career to this point.

Like I said, lets enjoy the ride and let AB and Chubbs agent do the rest, because Chibb needs to be a Brown for life, followed by his bust down the road.

Chubb is right up there with Joe T as my favorite Brown since 1999. Third choice would be a distance behind.

Yeah. I’m of the same mindset.

I tend to agree with you but I am hoping otherwise ... and yet if it had been a different poster that said this, I could see them being vilified for it as a hater, instead of it simply being a (probable) truism.

To add, who’s to say he won’t be the next Frank Gore and be productive into his 30s? I can see that happening, especially if, as others posted here, we can get a back to lighten Chubb’s workload?

If he even needs lightening of the workload.

He’s only played five seasons, let’s not be hasty in picking out his burial plot. He’s strong and tough.

Class act, a great back and a great teammate.

Well if we are gonna not just list current Browns.. then yes. Every bit of this, yes.

In short, I don't really know and RBs hit their decline in production at various points, whether based on # touches or naturally as the body gets older. But, on the macro level according to this site, that age is 28.

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-shelf-life-nfl-running-backs#:~:text=The%20main%20contributor%20to%20running,lot%20of%20time%20with%20injuries.

There is a graphic in at the article but it stops afterwards because it is a paid article, but I think you get the gist of it. The topic is also identifying fantasy RBs in leagues, admittedly, but the reasoning still stands for a team paying top $ for running backs on their rosters.

From PFF back in 2017:
(I deleted the article while writing this response but if anyone questions one sentence, I'll try and find it again)

Nick Chubb is currently 27 and turns 28 in December according to wikipedia. He never had an injury 'history'. He has one season-ending injury as a sophomore at Georgia. And until last year, he did get rest with Hunt playing a decent amount of snaps. That should all be taken into consideration re: longevity.

As far as a 3-year extension in concerned, and the basis of your question, I suppose it could happen. If so, maybe something akin to (1) restructuring the current contract including 2024 money, (2) adding two additional years that amortizes bonus/guaranteed money through 2026 or beyond (as all teams do to manipulate the cap) and (3) while leaving the Browns in a cap situation where they save "cap" money heading into the 2026 by releasing him.

Just my thoughts.

It really isn't much of a choice. Trade him, cut him, or get a salary reduction.

I like Chubb as much as anyone, but I like the Browns more.

My feeling on backs is that if you have a decent O line, average backs won't give you all that much less than a stud back. Nick is super, but he really isn't the type of back who can create yards like a Barry Sanders could create yards out of nothing.

If Ford looks ready to carry the load, and one of the other backs looks decent enough as a back-up, I would consider trading Chubb before the deadline if some team buys high and make a good offer.

I think it was Belicheck, but someone said it is better to get rid of a player a year soon than a year late.

Remember not long ago when Ray Farmer and others thought that the WRs' were of low value to a team?

Things changed in that respect and the defenses followed accordingly ... last year teams started to exploit that weakness as we all know only too well, but many teams got ran on last season ... I don't think it necessarily helped the value of the RB postion overall, but I think that it did cause a pause in their being under valued on a roster.

As far as age is concerned, I think that it is more of a case by case thing, some of the better RBs' have been successful into their 30s' and the thing with Nick Chubb is that taking care of his body is a daily process and it is a high priority to him compared to most players at any position ... I think that it's safe to say that he is not out partying it up and burning the midnight oil nightly.

I think that is an ungreatful attitude.

shouldn't this topic be on the future of the Head Coach who can't win with another set of new players.

at, about 8:30 last morning, It dawned on me, I can pretty much guarantee the Browns won't win it all this year, b/c teams that win it all have a characteristic, among others, the players, stick around and grow together in their roles,
not constantly change.

Just being realistic. Being grateful or ungrateful has nothing to do with it.

Nicks future is so bright we all gotta wear shades


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https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-c...e6ebff693558ee6f1e8af34aa12&searchtype=0[/image]

Haha Ray Farmer was so bad. Content to get mid WRs and then literally within the next 5 years the NFL becomes a straight passing league and WR contracts explode

May sound crazy, but I love Chubb and I want him here for as long as he's productive. Every player reaches a point where they no longer meet the dollar value. That's when it should end. Ideally, I'd like him to retire a Brown.

Why not talk about it? I am pretty sure next year is his contract year.

If he wants to extend a year, then keep him through next season. If he wants to retire after next season, then keep him next season. If he wants a big contract after next season beyond a 1 year deal, trade him before next season.

I'm actually more worried about Chubb in '23 in a pistol-heavy offense. I think our pistol looked very clunky last year...I don't think that set fits Chubb all that well. To be fair, everything Watson looked clunky last year...so maybe they just need to get familiar/comfortable...I sure hope that's the case.

The pistol look is a concern for me too. Our run game didn’t look as smooth (of course, our OL was banged up too).

The patented Chubb/ZBS running may not be in the cards

Agreed Peen.

When this was talked about at the beginning of the off-season, my opinion was this will be his last good year then he will start trailing off. He has two at the most in him. It's not his fault. It's not his work ethic, b/c that is what will/has pro-long the inevitable. But Mother Nature will win out.

I posted this link before:


RBs 29 or older

and here's another for the whole league

ages for the league

Do we want him to leave the team....that's like asking if we wanted Joe Thomas to retire. The answer is a resounding no.

And that's pretty much it in a nut shell. We all know that the decision making with the Browns relies highly on analytics. Sure people can point to RB's that had longer careers. But those are far more the exception to the rule than the rule itself. Even Jim Brown chose to walk away from the game at 30.

Some people love the idea of using analytics to make football decisions. Others not so much. I think analytics are a very good tool in the process. But do fans actually expect a FO whose decision making process is highly influenced by analytics to go against the analytics here? He's already under contract for the 2023 season. So that would mean a three year extension would go well beyond peak years for a RB in the NFL.

What we have here is a situation where the two parties will most likely see things very differently. Athletes have a very hard time saying they are past their peak. They may also be the exception and not be past their peak. I'm sure Chubb and his representatives will see that the next contract will be his last shot at a huge dollar contract even it it's only a two year deal. Why wouldn't they want that? The Browns on the other hand would play the analytics and not be willing to offer it.

Is that written in stone somewhere? No it's not. It's simply a logical conclusion.

Context is everything ... Jim Brown did not quit because he lost it. No! he quit to pursue his movie career and other passions of his life.

Jim Brown was not a run of the mill RB ... and neither is Nick Chubb.

After only five years and people are already planning his demise.

Nobody is planning his demise. Age will dictate his demise. He plays a position with a fairly short shelf life.

The Future of Nick Chubb: Canton.

Could be. He is about half way there.

I feel about Nick Chubb much the way I felt about Joe Thomas after he had been here for a while. He's everything you want in a player and I hope he gets to compete for championships. I hope it's here, but if it's not, I'll still root for him.

The numbers are what they are and have been posted. Are you suggesting this FO will ignore the analytics on RB's in order to give Chubb some huge amount of money for an extension? Or are you saying that Chubb will take a much lower contract amount than what he thinks he can get on the open market?

You do realize the game has totally changed since Jim Brown was a RB and that the value of RB's isn't nearly as high as it was back then, right?

Here's the rub in all of this. If a team has a top 10 QB, they can get great production in the running game without a prolific RB. They have no need to pay big money for a prolific RB. So much of this may hinge on watson's 2023 season. We'll have to wait and see on that.

What a slap in the face to Browns fans that would be. To watch your player from your team win a championship for another team.

Why can't this organization, your own team just get it's act together, get it's head out of the water, and compete and win something for your own team.

I don't care about feel good stories from hallmark cards.

I care about the BROWNS freaking winning something, in my lifetime.

While it is evident that RB's longevity and long-term value are diminished...it's also fair to say that Chubb has not been used/worked like a rented mule. There is always the chance that that will increase his longevity.

It isn’t fair to say that.

He’s had the third most carries in the past five years in the entire NFL.


Link

Chubb is one of my favorite Browns along with Leroy Kelly, Brian Sipe and Ozzie Newsome ...

I do not believe there is even a remote chance the Browns pay Chubb $16.2M next season, especially not with an offense that is going to skew heavily towards passing.

My thought last year was that 2023 was without a doubt Chubb's final year as Brown due to his huge cap hit for the RB position.

Stefanski and Berry have talked recently about the huge importance of team building and team chemistry. The importance is highlighted by the team spending the first week+ of training camp at the Greenbriar Resort away from family with sole focus being on the team. Nick Chubb is a glue guy, a locker room guy and well respected by his teammates. If the Browns outright release a team guy like Chubb due to salary cap issues it sends a poor if not contradictory message to the team.

I believe Berry finds a way to sign Chubb to an extension and rework Chubb's contract to lower his cap hit for 2024 and remain with Browns for a couple more years.