DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Future of Nick Chubb

Last year he also had the third most yards after contact.

There are things in life I am glad I don't have to do and tackle Chubb is one of them.

I'm a loyal person. I don't want to see Chubb leave. By the same token, I know a little about how things work. It is what it is.

On a side note - "there are things in life I'm glad I don't have to do....." reminded me of our high school football team. I was out of school at the time. But, our h.s. team played whatever team O.J. McDuffie played for - in I think regional semis. OJ was a running back then. The guy was unbelievable! His speed, his cuts. Fond memories of watching him in that 1 game back when. yeah, tackling him was, uh, tough, as even when you had him dead to rights, he could stop, pivot, and watch you go flying through the air. There's a reason he went to D1, and then the nfl.

Time will tell what happens...

I'm a Georgia guy, so I for sure what him to be a brown for at least til he's 30.

Well...he was (3) carries away from being 4th. Just kidding...that is certainly more than I thought.

Also interesting is that Chubb has played his whole career-to-date with Hunt...and with Hunt taking a lot of short-yardage carries...I would have thought that number would be lower. I looked at each of his years in the league for where he stood on # of carries by year:

2018 - 18th
2019 - 3rd
2020 - 14th (played in 12 games)
2021 - 8th
2022 - 3rd

Also interesting, but the total over (5) years is certainly more meaningful to the present discussion. Yards per carry are also interesting.

It certainly doesn't "feel" like we've run him like a rented mule.

He's also been pretty durable... which drives those yearly attempts up higher than players who always seem to miss a few games.

He's 10th in attempts per game over the last five years.

Link

I stumbled across the initial stat at the end of last season, and yes, it was surprising. I think there are a number of reasons for surprise: He never looks 'run down'. He never goes from week to week with ongoing nagging injuries. He usually finishes a season strong rather than looking 'burned out'. In short, all those 'tell-tale' signs aren't present in Nick Chubb. He just looks the role from every angle. He could probably close in on Henry-type usage and not really look beat down. Just another part of what makes him a great running back.

I don't know how other RBs train but Chubb seems to take his craft very seriously in many of the videos I've seen. I'm sure that plays a part.

And he still goes back to his hometown in the offseason... and shows up at his high school nearly everyday for his workout. All those videos showing his incredible 'feats of strength' are from Cedartown's weight room. Still works out with his personal coach who has been training him since he was 14.

“He is like a father to me beyond football. If I need anything, I come to him. I owe everything to him. Every year, he makes sure I'm in the best shape ever, makes sure I'm strong and fast. He doesn't take it easy on me. He pushes me every day.

“He knows me so well. I could go pay a bunch of money somewhere I don't know, and they could kind of take it easy on me. That's what I feel like would happen. They wouldn't really know me that well. The biggest thing for me is just staying down, staying humble and going back to my roots.”

https://www.beaconjournal.com/story...ason-opener-panthers-week-1/65742951007/

Good article, BTW.

So you combine all the other tangibles and intangibles and put them in the perfect RB body -- great strength, low center of gravity, balance and stability of a bowling ball. And then... the perfect running style... no b.s., no dancing, quick cut and pound, economy of movement that is unparalleled.

Alright, I'll stop. 🤣

Figure out the money and let this dude retire in Brown and Orange.

I agree. The only weak sport in his running is straight ahead. Nick likes to seek a hole to attack. That doesn't work as well in goal line situations. That is why we saw Hunt in many of those situations.

If I recall correctly, Coach Stefanski has shown it's possible to lose a game where your rbs combine for over I70 all purpose yards, so Chubb is solid but there are no guarantees.

JMHO, we are about to leave the run game dominate OFFENSE for the DW option/passing OFFENSE- I hope Coach S doesn't forget Nick- with fewer people in box, he should even be better.....time will tell....GO Browns!!!!

Nick Chubb doing what he does to prepare for the upcoming season...setting an example to the rest of his Browns teammates.

[video:youtube]https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KqOwCQWvmbE[/video]

The market is always set by what the market will will bear. That's the nature of the beast in any corporation. As much as fans would like to believe otherwise, that's exactly what the NFL is. A corporation. All one has to do is look at the decline in the cost of NFL RB franchise tag numbers to see what a RB is worth in the NFL. There are some great RB's out there who can't get what they believe is a fair contract.

You may be correct with Chubb still being very good for the next three seasons however. There are facts that support just how fast a RB's stats fall off the cliff after 1800 carries. Chubb has currently had 1210 carries. Last season he had 302 carries. At that pace he wouldn't "fall off the cliff" until the end of the 2024 season which is two more years. I do believe his intense training may buy him one more season which would add up to your three year prediction.

Here is a breakdown of the 1800 carry cliff.

Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news...gevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

His current contract has him being a Brown through the 2024 season. The question becomes that after all we've seen in regards to the Browns investment in the passing game and the apparent evolution into becoming more pass heavy, will they be willing to continue paying Chubb his high salary?

I'm a huge Nick Chubb fan. I would love nothing more than to see him remain a Browns until his retirement. But I'm also fully aware that it's the business side of this on the part of not only the team but on the side of Nick Chubb himself that will decide that. I think one must consider that a top RB is far more valuable to a team that does not have a prolific QB. They have to depend a lot more on the production of their running game that a team like the Chiefs don't have to. So if watson turns out to be a huge success that may help sway the scales for the Browns not to wish to make a huge investment in the running game moving forward. You don't need a great RB to have a productive running game when the opposing defense has to respect your passing game and can no longer stack the box.

Maybe Chubb will be willing to accept a huge discount. Maybe not.

I do too.

we really have seemed to be smart about his usage too. Having a healthy Hunt did help in that regard.

I think this will be Chubb's best year yet. If this offense clicks, he can be a devastating asset. It has always been the opponents task to stop him. Hopefully Watson takes some pressure off of him having to carry the offense. Stacking the box could end up being a bad decision for defenses. And if they can't, Chubb should have a great year.

I'm anticipating us trying to use him more in the passing game too. I think our offense should be more dynamic

Well said.

All one has to do is look at other teams to see where NFL teams are at in regard to backs. Guys like Barkley haven't gotten extensions. The reality is teams aren't all that eager to extent a 4 year back in to more expensive, long term contracts. Some guys might buck the trend, but the facts show that back production starts to decline after year 5.

I see a lot of posts talking about Chubb playing longer using words like should, could, might, and if. If we are going to use those words, we need to add the words maybe, possibly, and hopefully. Those are the words that bring on words like can't, won't, and isn't , which cause contract numbers to decline. If even offered.

The elite ones usually do.

Nick sounded a bit frustrated in yesterdays presser

about the pay and respect RBs are getting

Yeah, it's obvious he's not going along with the devaluation of the RB position quietly.............

Browns’ Nick Chubb has something to say about the state of the running back position

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. — Over his first five seasons, Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has been dependable, productive and, at times, dominant.

He might be the NFL’s best running back, but he’s never been loquacious. Chubb never says much about anything, actually. So when he stepped to the podium after the Browns’ practice Sunday and started giving long answers about Saquon Barkley’s contract situation, the importance of the running back position in today’s NFL and even his own future, it was as rare as Chubb getting dropped for a loss.

“We’re definitely in a tough situation, running backs as a whole,” Chubb said. “Saquon is a great player and you can ask anyone around the league or even on the Giants how much he means to that team. So it’s hard seeing him not get what he deserves.”

On the first night of the Browns’ training camp trip to the Greenbrier Resort, Chubb joined some of the league’s other top running backs on a Zoom call. The primary topic of discussion was the reluctance of teams — not just the Giants — to make long-term financial commitments to running backs and kick around some possible (but unlikely) solutions to help backs who have already logged four or more NFL seasons to get paid like top players at other positions. The players shared ideas and frustrations about what Chubb called the “myth” that running backs age faster or more poorly than players at other positions.

“Well, I mean, right now it’s just tough — there’s really nothing we can do,” Chubb said. “We’re kind of handcuffed with the situation. The biggest thing is that we’re the only position that our production hurts us the most. If we go out there and run for 2,000 yards with so many carries, the next year they’re going to say you’re probably worn down. That’s the biggest thing that I took from it. It’s tough. It hurts us just to go out there and do good. It hurts us at the end of the day.

“I feel like I had to be (on that Zoom) … and listen to what everyone’s saying, and I feel like it was important for me to be there because we got young guys who’ll be up next like (Jonathan Taylor), Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins. I feel like it was important for them to see my face and to hear my voice there just supporting everyone.”

Chubb is the first player in NFL history to have five straight seasons of at least 5.0 yards per carry on 100 or more rushes in each of those seasons, and in 2022 Chubb posted a career-high 1,525 rushing yards while tying a career high with 12 touchdown runs. He did that on a career-high 302 carries.

Even with the Browns set to open things up offensively with Deshaun Watson fully eligible and entrenched as their quarterback, Chubb is in line for another big season. Chubb said he still feels as valuable to the Browns as he ever has, and Kevin Stefanski — the Browns’ head coach and play caller — said he still views the running back position as important.

“For us it is,” Stefanski said. “I mean, we’ve got the best in the business, in my opinion (in Chubb). I know that (positional value) conversation and I know it’s complicated, but for us, we’re thrilled with the guys we have.”

Chubb, who will be 28 in December and has logged 1,210 career rushes, is under contract through 2024. But most of the guarantees in the deal he signed ahead of the 2021 season expire this year, and the Browns have significant financial commitments across their offensive roster for 2024 and beyond.

To this point, Chubb has aged well. So has the team-friendly contract he signed almost exactly two years ago, which included a signing bonus of $12 million and $20 million in guarantees. His $12.2 million average annual salary ranks fourth among running backs, and his 2023 salary-cap number is $14.85 million. Things could potentially get sticky in 2024 when Chubb’s cap number is around $16 million, but the Browns would incur just $4 million in dead money if Chubb is not on the roster.

It’s not that anybody’s thinking Chubb will have a subpar year or that the Browns want to move on from one of the best players — at any position — of the team’s new era. But Watson’s current cap number for 2024 is $63 million, and even once that’s inevitably reworked again into a more manageable number, the Browns still have four offensive linemen under cap numbers of at least $12 million for 2024, David Njoku at $18.3 million and Amari Cooper at $23.7 million. That’s why it was more than fair to ask general manager Andrew Berry about Chubb’s long-term standing with the team Sunday, which someone did.

“Nick Chubb is the type of player and person that you hope is with the organization as long as possible,” Berry said.

That’s not a firm answer, obviously. And there’s no way Berry can project much of anything ahead of a crucial season for the Browns. But Berry’s longer answer about positional value and how general managers with roster authority view budgets and contract values revealed how the Browns view Chubb — and understand his value.

“I think as you look at our sport, it has changed from — let’s call it the 1980s and ’90s — where at that point, a lot of offenses were built on maybe (having) a bell-cow runner,” Berry said. “I think now, unequivocally, the central protagonist in our sport is the quarterback, and as a result, positions that are the quarterback plus positions that are tied to the passing game, the market has dictated that those values have shifted because of their impact on winning.

“I think you see that over time, as the game changes, the game evolves. Now that being said, the rarest thing that you can find is a difference-maker regardless of position, regardless of your organizational philosophy. And now we have (across the league) a defensive tackle that’s making north of $30 million. We have a guard that’s making north of $20 million. We have off-the-ball linebackers that are making $20 million because there are players that break the mold. And for us, when we made our decision at running back (in 2021), we felt like we had a superstar at the position who embodied everything that we wanted within the organization, so we didn’t overthink it. It is Nick Chubb, right?

“So for us, it was a pretty straightforward decision because those difference-makers are hard to find.”

To anyone who’s followed Chubb’s reluctance to either say much or go down on first (or second) contact over the years, it’s no surprise that his answers about his own future included that his focus is on the season ahead and helping Cleveland get back to the playoffs. He said there’s been no talk between his representatives and the Browns to this point about a possible extension.

If you know Chubb, you know he’s genuine when he’s standing up for running backs everywhere but still insinuates he’s more focused on outrunning the Bengals than he is in outrunning Father Time.

“I got another year (on my contract), so, it’s easy for me to say it’s not a big deal,” Chubb said. “But next year it could be me in the same situation. For right now, I do have one more year (and) I’m here, I’m all in. I’m ready to work with my guys.”

Just before the Browns reported for camp, a video of Chubb squatting an absurd amount of weight at his high school popped up on social media. Chubb wouldn’t reveal how much weight was on the bar in the video, but he did say it was a personal best. That kind of video has become sort of a summer tradition, and kind of a subtle message of readiness from Chubb, who played in all 17 games last season and has only missed seven in his career.

“I think Nick has shown himself to be durable for us,” Berry said. “Look, I think you all see on social media how well he takes care of his body, obviously, and he’s a consummate professional. We’re hopeful that he can play as long as possible.

“I always tell Nick, whenever that (video) comes out, I shoot him a text like, ‘Nick. This is always my favorite social media clip of the offseason and the most anxiety-producing one as well.’ He’s a freak of nature.”

https://theathletic.com/4714612/2023/07/24/browns-nick-chubb-running-backs-training-camp/

That doesn't explain Barkley and Cook. Both ranked just barely under Chubb.

I'm simply following trends and considering the huge investment the Browns have made in their passing game. I've watched how teams have handled their RB investments after they switched over to making such investments in the passing game and employing such a strategy. Mine too is just an opinion. My opinion however is based on the actual trends and events happening within the NFL. And it's also my opinion that if watson doesn't came back to performing as he did in Houston they will keep Chubb. I mean who knows who is right here, correct?

However, the Vikings and the Giants are just the latest to have joined other teams in employing that strategy. I just find this ongoing devaluation of the RB position too much to ignore. The fact that the franchise number for RB's is on the decline isn't a fluke.

But I certainly agree with you in terms of Elliot. His production didn't justify the cost. The Browns are very driven by analytics as are many teams these days. I'm sure the analytics will come into play here.

I think a clear compromise between the league and RBs may be some sort of incentive based happy medium. As long as they continue to be productive and available, then maybe they can get increased pay BEFORE a contract is ending

[video:youtube][/video]

Nick Chubb speaks! Great interview

Love pivot.. and was surprised to see Chubb as a guest. Guess this is an example of him trying to be more vocal.

This was the most I've ever heard Nick Chubb say.
And he's exactly as advertised.

He's the kind of guy My Parents wanted me to have as a friend, growing up.

We were Baptists.

I think that's most of our hopes too. He should be a Brown until retirement. He's everything you want in a player

The Future of Nick Chubb?……HOF

There are folks out there in Fandom that actually think it's a good idea to trade him while he's still productive. Not Me

You could argue that would be a good move if the roster was in need of a rebuild and/if their current window was about to close. Browns have been in a perpetual rebuild for so long it's hard for me to make fun of these knee jerk reactions that have become habitual.

NO NO NO NICK CHUBB Should RETIRE a CLEVELAND BROWN !!!

watching our backups makes you really appreciate him. Just the total package