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j/c

I actually think tomorrow is when teams may start showing interest in Hopkins and even Hopkins and his agent weren't seriously trying to ink a deal until at least tomorrow. Few teams had the ability under the salary cap to bid for his services which meant little to no competition to sign him. Certain teams will see some salary cap relief starting tomorrow with June 2nd coming. From a bargaining standpoint that's more favorable for Hopkins.

Six Teams Set to Gain Salary Cap Space on June 2

https://overthecap.com/six-teams-set-to-gain-salary-cap-space-on-june-2

In actuality only the top four teams in this article will gain enough to really help with signing Hopkins but that does widen the potential market for him and his agent.

Have you seen him play?

Appearing on the I AM ATHLETE podcast, Hopkins named Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Herbert as the top five QBs he wants to catch passes from.

https://boltbeat.com/posts/chargers...Wjzyz8-LHy86r82kvX7z4jrwna-YOdGaoQvou6vo

At this point, no mention of Watson or the Browns.

I have. That's why I said another player like him. We already have a #1 Cooper and a perfect #2 in DPJ.

I also said... There are not enough footballs to go around. We averaged 65.65 offensive snaps last year.

I think if we added Hopkins it would be easier for teams to key in on 3 players vs playing our offense honest.

To keep our core happy/useful/effective
Chubb is going to command about 20-25 of those
Cooper is going to command about 10-15 targets
Hopkins would command about 10-15 targets

That's 40-55 of your 65 snaps (70%-85%) in a game between 3 players.

That leaves...
Moore getting about 1-5
Juke getting about 1-5
Ford/Felton would get 1-5 a game
Our 4th (DPJ - who is on pace to have a 1,000-yard season) and 5th WR/QB Run/Tick Plays/2nd TE/etc would only get about 5-10 a game.


I think it would be easier for defenses to play against us. They would just focus on 3 players and could potentially double team Cooper/Hopkins in obvious passing situations.

Allegedly, the odds shifted from +550 to -150 in one jump.

If you actually consider DPJ "the perfect #2 WR" I think we can see where the issue is. With the signing of Moore I think the Browns FO also disagree with you.

What do you consider the perfect #2?

I consider it 750-1000 yards.

The way the team operates recently, figuring the top receivers for 2024 is futile b/c it will be about five generations of roster reshuffling away.

so they may as well let This year play out, for better or for worse.

If you take a look at the top 5 elite QB's teams in 2022, you'd see that those 5 teams averaged 64.3 (KCC-62.8, LAC-65.6, TBB-66.9, MIN-63.3, CIN-63.0) offensive plays per game during the regular season. The Browns averaged 63.1 offensive plays in 2022.

If we take this a little further, the elite QB'd teams from 2022 averaged pass attempts per game:
KCC - 38.3
LAC - 41.8
TBB - 44.2
MIN - 39.5
CIN - 38.1
While the Browns averaged: 31.7 pass attempts per game.
To meet the average, the Browns would have to throw 8.68 more times per game (a 27.4% increase).

Running plays per game by those same teams:
KCC - 24.5
LAC - 23.8
TBB - 22.7
MIN - 23.8
CIN - 24.9
While the Browns averaged: 31.3 rushing attempts per game.
To meet the average, the Browns would have to run the ball 7.4 less times per game (a 23.6% decrease).

If we dig a little deeper, we'd see season the passing yardage per elite QB'd team as:
KCC - 5,250
LAC - 4,791
TBB - 4,746
MIN - 4,818
CIN - 4,520 (16 games only)
While the Browns totaled: 3,710 for the season.
The Browns passing game would have to generate an additional 1,171.5 yds to be a top 5 elite passing team (a 31.6% increase).

So, what would the expectations of the Browns receivers be as a group?
KCC - 485 receptions
LAC - 435
TBB - 499
MIN - 448
CIN - 418 (16 games)
While the Browns totaled 335 receptions
The Browns receivers would have to generate an additional 127.2 receptions to be consider atop 5 elite QB'd team.

So, the question becomes, do the Browns with basically the same core of receivers as 2022 (Njoki, Cooper, and DPJ) have the skill set to account for an additional 127 receptions on top of what the exhibited in 2022 with a new #3? What effect will it be on Chubb's contribution with 7-8 less rushing attempts of more per game?

Finally, in addition to the additional 1,171,5 yards and 127.5 receptions, the Browns would also have to replace that production from the highlighted players and/or those that may still be released not being with the team anymore.
BROWNS 2022 RECEIVING
Nick Chubb_____________27 receptions/239 yards
Kareem Hunt___________ 35 receptions/210 yards (released)
Anthony Schwartz________ 4 receptions/51 yards
D'Ernest Johnson_________ 3 receptions/7 yards (released)
David Njoku_____________58 receptions/628 yards
Donovan Peoples-Jones____61 receptions/839 yards
Harrison Bryant__________31 receptions/239 yards
Michael Woods II_________ 5 receptions/45 yards (season ending IR)
Demetric Felton__________ 2 receptions/8 yards
Amari Cooper___________78 receptions/1160 yards
David Bell______________24 receptions/214 yards
Pharaoh Brown__________ 5 receptions/45 yards
Daylen Baldwin__________ 2 receptions/25 Yards

To date that would be an additional 48 receptions and 307 yards brings the total needed to 175.5 receptions and 1,478.5 yards to reach top 5 elite status in the passing game while maintaining at a minimum last year's numbers.

Just something to chew on as to how much the offense will have to change for a top 5 elite QB status.

Aren't you taking the averages of the top 5 to come up with these numbers... So making us "elite QB team #2.5"?

Seems like you're making a "listen guys, this hill is too big to climb" proposition, while making a mountain out of a molehill.


I really don't care about those stats or analytically extrapolating a future scenario that isn't even necessary. Three of those "elite QB teams" didn't win a playoff game. None of those teams have Nick Chubb. No one in our front office is designing an offense based on finishing in some pigeon-holed statistical categories; they're trying to get into the playoffs and win a Super Bowl. I'd much rather do that than have statistical bragging rights.

When you're paying elite QB money you are expected to be an elite passing team. If you're not you failed. Simply watching the emphasis on upgrading the WR position with the combination of letting Hunt go during the off season and with the signing of watson makes it obvious to anyone who is watching that the Browns plan to be a pass first team.

So, if we win a Super Bowl but Watson doesn't have "elite" numbers, we have failed??

You're looking at the statistics and saying what does it matter. However, if the Browns are going to have an elite top 5 QB and it's a requirement to winning as has been stated here so so so many times, then your QB is going to have to throw for 4,500 yards or more. You don't get to that point of being elite without the elite QB, elite receivers and a comparable running game. Your receivers can't be guys with potential in waiting and you won't have the top rusher in the league.

That's why it has been said here that the offense would have to dramatically change. If it doesn't change, then you will not have a top 5 elite QB. I posted the stats just to bring things into perspective with the other elite QB'd teams. No matter which way you cut it, if Watson is going to return to elite top 5 form, then he's going to have to throw about 10 more times per game than the Browns have done in the recent past. That would also mean that the running game, mostly Chubb, is going to get 8-10 less carries per game. The receiving core is going to have to generate an additional 175 receptions from what they posted last year.

I'm not being negative here. I'm just saying that "IF" Watson is going to be a top 5 elite QB as advertised and the only way we can win is with an elite QB, then the offense has to change dramatically. Just a note by the way, all five of those players made the playoffs last year including the Super Bowl winner. Before you can win the Super Bowl, you have to make the playoffs first. In the last 5-year's, the average yards passing in the regular season for the Super Bowl winning QB is 4,689 yards.

Did all of those teams listed as having elite QB's win the SB? I made that obvious to you in my previous post. If the Browns don't become an elite passing team they failed. Since you seem not to have seen it the first time I'll quote it from that post.


I hope that clears it up for you. What they will have failed at would be a lack of return on the investments to turn the Browns into an elite passing team. The signing of watson, FA investment and draft investment will not have accomplished the goal they set out to reach.

A lot has been done to improve this team on both sides of the ball including some much-needed coaching changes.

Exactly.

Add in a supposedly new offense to boot and that post is basically meaningless.

Would the offense operate faster with Deandre Hopkins on the field,
when that option is put up against
Moore on the field,
Cooper,
Tillman on the field
Goodwin,
or D. Peoples Jones on the field.

Does the offense operate faster, score faster with Hopkins in than one of those???
and if not?

then what are you doing to get better by signing Hopkins? It could end up subtraction by addition if it messes with the whole offenses chemistry just to add him to the mix?
No???

They haven't won 2 post season games in the same post season for about Seventy years.

they have failed,

Look at the schedule, if the Browns begin 3 and I. it will be historic because they haven't done that since about nineteen ninety four, and that was a @uarter Century ago.

Forget the super bowl, until they make the playoffs
Watson can't throw for 4400+ yards in one game.
The coaching planners ought to get it together and find out how to make this team start 3 and one,
instead of one and 3, or 0 and 4, because they haven't done well in September lately.

Cincinnati
at Pittsburgh MNF
Tennessee
Baltimore
Bye Week
San Francisco 48ers

They need off season preparedness

These stats invite some serious consideration in what I considered a good post as I read. I wouldn't call it a tweak to get to yje elite stat achievement levels. One factor promoting our differential has to be game prep. I also still believe that our average performance, a couple steps behind the hottest offensive performers, has to be in large part due to the play mix, choice, and play calling. Whether that is Ski, some faceless committee, offensive quality coordinator, OC, whoever, 1) you are your record, and 2) you are your stats. Our pass run mix will be changing, I suspect. But it will not be limited to who is in the mix on the field; it is also the game called for them. We neglected some things in our game that some wildly successful teams do. I want to see these stats improve. We should open it up a little more a little more often IMO.

Just a simple question: what offensive chemistry are you referring too? Watson has never played a down with Moore, Goodwin, Grant, or Tillman. So, how does he have offensive chemistry with them?

There's not a single person on the Browns currently that would provide more offensive chemistry than a reunion between Hopkins and Watson.

I'm not advocating for or against Hopkins, but I can tell you why it would be a bold move that would be beneficial.

First the age factor posted here, Hopkins will be 31 this season. Grant will be 31 and Goodwin 33 - Hopkins is actually younger than Goodwin and just 4 months older than Grant.

Production: if you add Grant and Goodwin's numbers together, they don't come close to Hopkins production even with missing games the last couple of seasons.

Hopkins is a proven commodity with 5 Pro Bowls and greater potential of returning to form than the potential of 2 players as old or older that haven't had 400 yards receiving any season in the last 3.

Though I don't disagree with the upside of E. Moore, I believe that it's foolish not to recognize that in his 2-years in the league - his best year was 538 yards. Even with missing 8 games last year and 6 in 2021, Hopkins posted better numbers than Moore and almost double Moore's production in 2022 playing in 4 less games with a poorer team.

The Browns currently have 12-13 WR's planned on heading to training camp. About half of those players won't make the roster.

According to Bleacher Report: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1640782-the-anatomy-of-a-53-man-roster-in-the-nfl

Most teams will keep six wide receivers on the active roster but will only dress five for the game unless the sixth player is a warrior on special teams. This allows the coaching staff to line up in four-wide formations without losing speed or talent.

Normally the top four wideouts will not play on special teams unless they are a returner like Baltimore’s Jacoby Jones. Rarely is one of the team’s top three wide receivers also the primary returner. That role is typically held by the fourth wide receiver or another position.

The sixth wide receiver on the roster will normally be inactive on game day and is either a talent the team wants to work with in the future or a high draft selection that needs work at the NFL level. Think of San Francisco wide receiver A.J. Jenkins.

If Hopkins was added, what would the Browns have to do to afford him and what would the roster look like?

Roster:
WR1 Cooper, age 28
WR2 Hopkins, age 31
WR3 DPJ, age 24
WR4 Moore, age 23 (building for the future)
WR5 Bell, age 22 (building for the future)
WR6 Tillman, age 23 (building for the future)

PS - Baldwin, age 23
PS - Harley, age 25
IR - Woods, age 23

Cost:
Let's assume that Hopkins would cost between 12M and 15M
Post June 1 Cuts:
Cutting Grant would return $1,130,000 in cap savings.
Cutting Goodwin would return $1,240,000 in cap savings.
Cutting Schwartz would return $1,102,094 in cap savings.
Cutting Darden would return $940,000 in cap savings.
Cutting Felton would return $940,000 in cap savings with Kelly taking over RB3 position.
Total cap savings by these moves would be $5,352,094 making Hopkins new money cost between $6,647,906 and $9,647,906 in new money from the current cap surplus of $13,864,088.

It can be done.

Yes and no. No, winning a Super Bowl would be the best win ever. But if DW plays at any level less than elite, we lose on that deal and morally.

If we win a Super Bowl no matter who we have at QB and no matter how he plays is a tremendous, unprecedented success for us. We've never accomplished this, never even been to one why wouldn't it be?

Now those odds have gotten even better. Now at +100.

UPDATE: Browns Emerge As Betting Odds Favorite To Land WR DeAndre Hopkins

On Friday, Draftkings Sportsbook released updated odds that now have the Cleveland Browns as the favorite to land wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland...g-odds-free-agent-con-211067847/#2176589

Read what I said again. I said No, (we would not have failed) winning a Super Bowl would be the best win ever. Yes, (even winning a SB is a fail on the DW signing) if he doesn’t play at an elite level. Top 6-10 is not where you want your 230 million dollar QB to finish a season, you want him top 5.

You’d have to be nuts as a true browns fan to not want a SB win/appearance!

But starting at a starting point of disgusted by the DW trade morally, to being elated that he did just enough for the other talent to get to a Super Bowl and win, while still showing a lot of struggles and not being elite as advertised… Yes, I would then condemn the deal for DW with all my being. I simply don’t give a damn if he can play good once in a while, it needs to be consistent elite level ball with the browns always in the hunt for me to want him to stay, or for me to keep following this team. If he plays like he did last year, I’m out at the end of this season, if DW is not out, that is. But if he is what everyone projects him to be, an elite top 5 QB, AND DOESN’t HAVE MORE SIMILAR ISSUES, then I’m good. I can justify the deal in my mind.

And no matter what we do or DW does, I will lose my mind if Baker get’s deep into the playoffs or to a SB before us. At this point, I would much rather have him under center. At least watching him have a bad game doesn’t feel slimy. Same if DW doesn’t show he’s consistently elite, Baker is easily top 10 when he’s playing his best ball, and watching him struggle never felt slimy. I couldn’t even enjoy the games DW played last year. I don’t like DW the person one iota.

j/c

I do not think we will end up with Hopkins, which means he probably is already picking out a house in the Cleveland suburbs.

But if we do, I wonder which WR gets pushed off the roster? If we keep 6 WR then I think, right now, it is Cooper, Moore, DPJ, Goodwin, Bell, and Tillman. If we keep 7 then Grant as KR. So, who is the odd man out if we bring in Hopkins?

I think it might be DPJ, as odd as that may sound. Hopkins coming in pushes DPJ from WR3 to WR4 and a big reduction in opportunities. This year he is playing for his next contract and being buried on the depth chart will run counter to that. If we bring in Hopkins I can see DPJ looking for a trade or release so he can go somewhere where he can get the chances to earn that next contract.

DPJ would lose his trade value if we signed Hopkins before trading DPJ. We would likely get a 4th/5th for him.
If we kept him I think DPJ would be our #4 which is absolutely insane

Moore is definitely our #3/slot

I don't believe that this FO is concerned with DPJ's future contract. It's obvious to most that the Browns will run a more pass centric offense and as such WR3 and WR4 will have more opportunities than they would have had in the past. He is still on his rookie deal and while he has been a pretty good WR, I don't think he rises to the level of having the sway or influence enough to position himself to demand a trade. And I think DPJ understands that.

well, it seems like we can get Hopkins for pennies on the dollar if we really want him.

Bills are basically out on DHOP per Beane

This is an OBJ situation more name than substance at this point and would bring inflated expectations. He is still very good but it would be puzzling but also an immediate upgrade over DPJ.

J/C. It should send up a flag when a player go his prior caliber is just released. I think we should roll with OUR guys and have some faith in our development of those people. This whole Hopkins thing just don’t smell or feel right. At 31 he is not getting better. I really don’t want to screw with team chemistry. This ain’t the same old desperate Browns who need this baggage. Watson has enough weapons, the D has added weapons, now they just have to execute the game plan. Go Browns

I think DPJ is a middle of the road WR. Yeah his catches
And yards have improved but......that's because his targets
Has increased. But his YPC average dropped in 2022.
And what's the most alarming....he still isn't a end threat
By any means. 8 TDs in 3 years.
DPJ isn't a WR that can take a game over.
He is a steady WR.
At this point Hopkins is a better WR than DPJ. Hopkins has
Bested other teams #1 CBs for years now
DPJ doesn't command the defenses #1 CB. He isn't that good.