Today could be another rough day
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.htmlFrom the write up
..Ohio Valley and vicinity...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop in one
or two organized arc or lines of lift related to:
1. The front impinging on a destabilizing boundary layer up and down
western parts of the outlook area, and perhaps
2. A prefrontal/lake-breeze convergence zone over western Lower MI.
Damaging to severe gusts and large hail are likely as activity
organizes upscale following an early, discrete to semi-discrete
stage.
Supercellular tornado and large-hail threats will exist along nearly
the entire corridor. That said, potential for strong tornado(es)
and significant/damaging-hail should be relatively maximized across
the eastern IN/western OH and perhaps southern Lower MI sector,
where the supporting CAPE/shear parameter space will overlap best.
In that swath, large low-level hodographs will develop ahead of the
main convective band, leading to 150-300 J/kg effective SRH and
40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes.
That will be collocated with a northward-directed corridor of
afternoon destabilization and increasing buoyancy related to:
1. Warm/moist advection behind the morning activity,
2. Steepening low-level lapse rates from diabatic heating, and
3. Increasing midlevel lapse rates from a combination of the
northeastward-advected EML plume and large-scale ascent preceding
the progressive cyclone.
This should lead to a plume of MLCAPE ranging from around 3000-4000
J/kg over the lower Ohio Valley to 1500-2000 J/kg in parts of
central/northern Lower MI, to where greater severe probabilities
have been expanded northward. Severe potential overall should
diminish with time and eastward extent tonight as activity gradually
moves into lower theta-e.
