DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum 10 things I think I think.

Peter King used to do a section like this on the radio - or on whichever web site it was. I always like Peter King - he was well connected, intelligent and always seemed to have a soft spot for the Browns ... not a Nate Ulrich kind of way, but just like he seemed to WANT the Browns to get it right.

Anyway - for whatever reason I thought of this today and with the season starting tomorrow I figured it might be an interesting thread for folks to post 10 things they think they think about the season.

1 - I think I think the Browns will probably under perform because of Stefanski and Watson - neither of whom do I think it elite in their respective positions for the Browns. For as much as I enjoyed Stefanski's inteligent interviews and professionalism after Freddie Kitchens... I think the best of Stefanski was under Covid conditions where he probably prepared the team better than most other HC's and while that's commendable it feels like with a level playing field or more traditional coaching operation within the NFL he's falling behind. We've seen a history of getting pass happy in games - that was at a time when many/most fans thought the QB was bad and very limited. We even got pass happy with that same 'bad QB' who was playing injured and who clearly was playing even worse than normal (QB rating was right at the bottom in the NFL that year). We've seen a reliance on going for it on 4th down - which while statistically can be "the right call" - it's only true if you are making conversions at minimum NFL wide averages (we weren't). And while I hope for better from Watson - at some point you have to move on from the time away from the game and simply be a really good NFL QB and make throws. That time is right now - obviously I want it to happen but I think I think I am expecting middle of the road performances.

2. I think I think I believe some of if not quite all the Jets Hype. I know I think Aaron Rodgers is supremely talented. I Know I coveted Garret Wilson when he came out and I think he's going to be great. I know Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook is a great RB tandem. Last year the Jets D was really good ... so often the off season 'super team' that put all the pieces together falls flat on it's face. But I think the Jets will go deep into the playoffs.

3. I think I think the Browns Defense will be really really good. Top 6. Maybe top 4. And even if they aren't statistically leading lots of catagories - I think they are going to play the type of defense I want to see and do it well and do it consistently. I still love the Jim Schwartz hire.

4. I think I think Jim Schwartz will be a HC somewhere next year. I know damn well I think he'll be a HC in 2 years time if he's not next year. I think I think it might even be with the Browns.

5. I think I think this is going to be the last year Nick Chubb is a Brown - and that makes me truly sad. As with many - he's my favorite player since the return. He's the best RB in the NFL (in my eyes) and I would not swap him for any other RB. To not keep that talent, that attitude and work/team ethic - would be egregious. But if we are an analytics based team (guided strongly / heavily influenced) then I think RB is going to be a position we don't value as highly as Chubb is worth.

6. I think I think CJ Stroud is going to look like the best rookie QB in the NFL this year. I don't know if that will be true next year - but I think he will this year.

7. I think I think I might be been wrong about Kenny Pickett - I thought he was a Mason Rudolph clone. I think he's a lot better than that - maybe not top 10-12 in the NFL but certainly not bottom 10-12 either. I think George Pickens is as good (or better) than I thought - and it sticks in my craw to say it after all these years, but I think I think Mike Tomlinson is a much better HC than I ever wanted to give him credit for.

8. I think I think that - while we mention Garret Wilson - that the 2022 WR draft class will go down as one of - if not in the conversation for the best - WR draft class ever. There were so many I wanted for different reasons, and none more than Olave and Wilson, and they pretty much seem to be shaping up inline with high expectations. . . . So a quickie google::: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2886225-the-best-wide-receiver-classes-in-nfl-draft-history ::: Certainly the top 3 classes they have listed are phenominal. But 2022 has a dearth of top talent. Can't wait to see them play again this year.

9. I think I think Myles Garrett will have a career year - I'm rechewing a little bit of the Jim Schwartz love here, but between Schwartz and the rest of the DL talent, I think he's going to make multipe impact plays in most games. And when he's not I expect someone else to be making a play because of the double team MG drew .... I think I think (I think I hope more like) that Schwartz will do more to get the ridiculous holding non-calls on MG called in contrast to Stefanski just accepting them.

10. I think I think I need a Baker Mayfield take! I still wish him well. I think I know that all the talk last year about him being out of the NFL was wrong. I think I think if Baker plays "ok" and posts decent numbers - people will find reasons to hate on him. I think I think that if Baker plays anywhere nearly as well as Watson, then we'll see some excessive excuse making for the $250 million dollar man no matter what, while at the same time lots of Baker Hate. Because the more things change the more they stay the same !

What about you - what do you think ?

I'll do mine (and just a shorter version lol)

1. I think we win less than 9.5 games (which is the Vegas line)
2. I think our QB will not live up to the hype
3. I think we will have a new head coach in 2024
4. I think a bright spot will be our front 7
5. I think we will be clamoring for safeties and linebackers in the draft
6. I think the kicking problem is still a problem
7. I think Chubb begins to show signs of wearing down by the end of the year
8. I think our OL will look much different next season
9. I think we finish last in the division
10. I think the Bengals win the Super Bowl

1. I think the AFC and the AFC North, AFC East, and AFC West are scary deep and good and some very good football teams are going to get left out of the playoffs.
2. I think Joe Burrow is the best pure QB in the NFL (hopefully rusty Sunday missing most of the preseason)
3. Deshaun Watson is a playmaker more than pure QB and he will make plays in 2023. There is a reason Dabo Sweeney said passing on Watson in the draft will be like passing on Michael Jordan. His first 3 years proved his talent and he will again this season.
4. I think Myles Garrett has a monster year in 2023 (20+ sacks) Defensive MVP
5. Nick Chubb will again be a 1,000-yard rusher but he will show receiving skills with this new offense.
6. The Browns will be positive in the turnover numbers in 2023 due to the pass rush causing turnovers.
7. The Chiefs will take a step back in 2023. Not make AFC Championship game. They let too many playmakers go last few seasons.
8. Going out on a limb and saying the NFC Championship game will be same 2 teams the Eagles vs the Niners.
9. Mike Tomlin is a great coach, but someone is going to be last in the North and the Steelers will finish last, and he will have first season under .500.
10. The Browns will not only make the playoffs they will win the Division for the first time since 1989.

I'll do mine (and just a little shorter)

1. I too think the Browns will probably under-perform because of Stefanski, we win less than 9.5 games, and people on this forum will be calling for Stefanski's head by midseason.
2. I think Watson will eventually live up to the hype, but the team will become pass happy making Chubb a non-factor.
3. I think we will have a new head coach in 2024 and Watson will demand a say in the hire.
4. I think a bright spot will be Garrett with a monster year, but he'll hold out in 2024 for higher than Boza money or forcing a trade because we are not winning.
5. I think we will be clamoring for WR's, linebackers and OL in the draft and FA.
6. I think the kicking problem is still an issue.
7. I think Chubb is a non-factor in the 2nd half of the season because we become pass happy and will be released in the off season due to next year's big contract.
8. I think our OL will look much different next season due to Wills poor play and Conklin's continued injuries resulting in the replacement of both tackles.
9. I think we finish last in the division
10. I think the Ravens will pick up Aaron Donald from the Rams as they dump salaries before the trade deadline and vault the Ravens to the AFC North crown, deep into the playoffs and/or the Super Bowl.

Wow...I'm pretty pessimistic, but not that much!

Honestly, I think I don’t know what to think about the Browns.
I think the team is loaded with talent, yet I think we will again be disappointed.
I think that I think that because I’m a Browns fan.
I think not liking DW as a person should not be the reason I feel he might fail to deliver Eliteness.
I think I’m going to wait and see this entire year, and if DW plays well, I’ll be good with the team.
I think if they don’t make a serious run this year, I’m done with this team.
I think most of the players and FO are great people.
I think the QB, HC, and Owner (Jimmy) ruin that feeling.
I think Ski will lose his job if we don’t make the playoffs.
I think Dee Hallam has her work cut out for her.

Your whole post is spot on, but those first 3 lines got me.


I think the marriage of Watson and Stefanski will tell a LOT about both (Stefanski's feel for playcalling and Watson's ability to execute within a system and feed all the weapons he has)
I think if Garrett can't pull off that season we've all been waiting for this year, then it just might not be in the cards.
I think I'm not as worried as I normally would be about missing a player like Ward (sorry if that's callous, just saying we have a pretty deep rotation of corners).
I think our offense really needs to gel fast.
I think there isn't going to be as much patience as their should be if we stumble out of the gate.
I think I'm about at the end of my rope if we decide to blow things up after a failed season.

The doom and gloom room.

I think I’ve come to terms with both the fact that we have a dirtbag at QB and also the cognitive dissonance that I continue to root for the team somehow.

I think almost everyone outside of the city of Cleveland is dearly and desperately rooting for us to fall because of the QB and that contract and that plays a part in the near universal absence of the browns in playoff predictions.

I think that might make us a solid bet for the over quite frankly.

I think I hope that it lends us a chip for our shoulders and causes us to play with some added fire

I think we simultaneously have our best shot in decades and have an unusually steep hill because of the level of competition in the AFC and our division.

I think if we have playoff success we will need injury luck. The second team is not deep.

All I got for now

Some of the specific comments I agree with in particular:

I think that I think that because I’m a Browns fan.

I think Ski will lose his job if we don’t make the playoffs.

I think there isn't going to be as much patience as their should be if we stumble out of the gate.

I think I’ve come to terms with both the fact that we have a dirtbag at QB and also the cognitive dissonance that I continue to root for the team somehow.

I think we simultaneously have our best shot in decades and have an unusually steep hill because of the level of competition in the AFC and our division.

I'm pessimistic about our team (for the most part ... I do think we have some talent and improvements) mostly because we have been an embarrassment for 95% of my life. The first real season I remember is 1995. Think about that lol.

We suck until we don't. I'm tired of getting my hopes up.

let's hope you're correct my friend. Objectively, I think Watson is VERY shaky from what I've seen. And I don't think we have that toughness factor needed.

Well, he also played in 6 games last year at a very pedestrian rate. Albeit, he was rusty and it was a weird circumstance. The verdict is out for sure.

"Toughness factor" is an attitude and making plays when it really matters. You ever see the Steelers or 49ers on defense? They fly to the ball, gang tackle, and have energy that jumps off the screen. This group of defenders doesn't display that same fortitude (albeit again, I do think our front 7 should be improved). What else signifies a team that is tough? Making plays and executing in the tight spots ... like within the 5 yard line. Have you noticed a trend of us getting down there and stalling, getting stuffed, calling horrible plays, etc? There's no coincidence there. We are like last in the league inside the 10.

Go to YouTube and find highlights of Watson and Clemson vs Alabama in the National Championship game. That is clutch and tough. Watch Watson vs the Buffalo Bills in the 2019 playoff game and see him go from a sure sack to making the play that won that game. He is tough. He is a Pro Bowler that has lead the NFL in passing. Although. I would not say he is pure QB. I would say he is a playmaker with his arm and legs. Great vision and awareness. His playmaking ability is the factor that he did not have last year and that was the missing piece and I think that was lack of playing with the talent that was around him. He has now had an offseason to prepare with that same talent and I think it will be better early and grow better as the year goes along.

No doubt he is talented. He's had some crazy good stuff in his past, but we're also not allowed to talk about the past to predict the future per bone's post.

If he balls out, then that's GREAT! We deserve it and we'll be good.

Problem is, if he doesn't and we start 1-4 or whatever (and with division losses) the year is pretty much a wash. He's gotta be GOOD immediately.

I think I'll wait and see what happens and try to enjoy whatever comes.

I think the team's biggest obstacle is psychology exacerbated by a large portion of the fan base that seems rather neurotic.

"A man who does not learn from history is doomed to repeat it."

I think I think this team is a mystery with more questions than answers.

I think I think that the Browns will have more trouble right out of the gate than both Pittsburgh and Cincinatti because both of those teams have long established systems on both sides of the ball which gives them long established continuity in those systems on both sides of the ball. The Browns will be starting from ground zero on both O and D in new systems.

I think I think this new O may cut back on Chubb's productivity to the point that the Browns won't see the RB worthy of the money invested in it. Remember it's an analytics driven league.

I know I think that the rah, rah boys on the board that try to claim anyone who has serious questions about the Browns should STFU about them getting ready to jump off a cliff. Only those who think football is life and death would even consider something like that. And as much as they rail about "You haven't even seen this team play yet!"... Neither have they.

Don't allow their rants to interfere with your honest opinions. Just because they see everything all sunshine and roses doesn't make them superior to you. Despite what they may think.

While true, the corollary is "those who learn the wrong lesson from history are... numerous."

If anything should be learned form Browns history is that the smart thing to do would be cautiously optimistic at best. But to each their own.

We have been pretty underwhelming in the redzone recently. I was encouraged by the Njoku TD. Its what I've been looking for since we drafted him. We seem to finally understand that when the field tightens you can/should take advantage of a different dimension (the vertical axis/up and down.) Tillman can help there as well. I think Watson's ability to ad lib also presents advantages in the scoring area.

The D also seems to be "flying to the ball" more under Schwartz. Hopefully that continues.

We'll see.

The smart thing is to try to go in without expectations.

Like I said. Many people take away the wrong lessons. Sometimes those "lessons" contribute to what they are hoping to avoid. Expect the worst, and a fair amount of times its what you get.

The sense that a lot of people are expecting the worst has a (psychological) "weight" of its own.

I agree we need Njoku near the red zone. We rarely throw it INTO the end zone, which needs to happen more too

I don't know about that. Expecting the worst but hoping for the best helps keep you prepared. If everyone went through life not being prepared for the worst while hoping for the best we would see what happens to people that aren't prepared for the worst and we see it all the time. It generally doesn't turn out well. And in terms of the Browns, what we hope for or expect as the case may be, has zero impact on the outcome.

There is a difference between preparing for something and expecting something.

I also disagree with your assertion of zero impact.

And as I stated, what fans expect has zero impact on what they will get in terms of the Browns season. In this case we are specifically talking about how the Browns season will go and what you posted here doesn't apply.

I'm not naive enough to think that any of our players give a damn about what I think. They don't. I just have been worn down by disappointment. Until things change, I'll continue to prepare for it.

Intellectually, they probably don't care. But, teams feed off of crowds. If a crowd turns on a team, it has an effect. Expecting the worst can lead that "turning" to occur (earlier.)

I'm not buying any hype or have any illusions of grandeur. Stop talking about it and DO it. Show me. Then I will believe. It's a new season. Hopefully we, as fans, will see something NEW. That's where I'm at right now.

"I know I think that the rah, rah boys on the board that try to claim anyone who has serious questions about the Browns should STFU about them getting ready to jump off a cliff. Only those who think football is life and death would even consider something like that. And as much as they rail about "You haven't even seen this team play yet!"... Neither have they."

Please do you really think I meant it literally? How about you STFU.

Right, we have not seen the 2023 Browns play. And last year or years before don't have any impact on this season at all.

I didn't predict a thing about the teams record for this year. I have no idea what it will be.

So, don't get on a high horse and tell me to STFU. Stick the rah rah crap back where it comes from.

My point is clear if you really read "what I think I think.

I don't think Dawgs4 Life had any problem with what I wrote.

You're hilarious!

Waiting for the games is sound. But makes for a bit of a boring forum. And my thread wasn't intended to be only about the Browns, it's really just few thoughts in the last couple days before the season starts.

I heard a podcast interview with a Browns assistant GM, a female this week, well the point is,
if she had 300 expressions of answers to topics, she started 30I of them with "I think"
which makes me go hmm on the thread title.

otherwise, I think that I think the Browns secondary will miss, Greedy, Troy Hill, and JJ3, this year.

Not sure how long the Bengals O & D have been "established" but I read their message boards frequently and 1/2 way through the 2021 season they wanted their head coach fired and considered their D coordinator the worst in the league. Funny how a a half season later with a Super Bowl appearance, followed by an AFC title game will fix things.

BTW, Bengals fans were saying all the same stuff about Zac Taylor that I read on here about KS. A lot of comments that Taylor had little experience and was too young for the job. No imagination on offense.

Not saying KS is the answer, just found it interesting that you referred to the Bengals systems as long-standing.

There is something to be said for teams with well established systems. I believe Tomlin expects his players to perform his bread & butter plays to perfection. His players will continued to practice those plays until the timing, and execution is perfect. They don't need to get fancy because they do what they do so well. I definitely think we will be sluggish out of the gate, some plays will develop slow until they become routine.