DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The bigger picture..

JMHO, the expectation level will be so high next year that anything less than a Super Bowl appearance could generate a house cleaning so fast our heads will spin.

The Browns have set themselves up for that because of the over performance of this year's team. Every time anyone talks about the use of 4 (5) QB's, the massive number of injuries to the offense & defense and going 11-6 with (0-1 playoffs) would clearly set expectations of no less than 12-13 wins, an AFC North crown, and a Super Bowl appearance.

Read the posts on this forum, the number of continual comments about how great the Browns would have done with Watson, Chubb, and both starting tackles this year is overwhelming. Don't you think Haslam is thinking the same thing? There is literary almost no excuse left in that bucket that will be acceptable for not achieving better than this year's results.

The last time our Browns were thought this highly of was in 2021 and we all seen what happened then. JMHO, and I've been consistent, Stefanski doesn't do well with super high expectations. I'm also concerned about Watson having too much say in what happens going forward but that's speculation on my part. It's early and I realize that but what I am sure of is the expectation level will be very very high next year and that that's not a "what if." The pressure on Watson, Stefanski, and Berry will start week 1 and will intensify as each week passes. The Browns have 9 games scheduled against teams with winning records in 2023 and 8 of those games are against playoff teams from the 2023 season. That leaves 8 games against teams that had a losing record which includes CIN (2) and the LAC (1) who also lost elite QB's to injury in 2023.

So, we have to play in the SB because we did so goodly this year?

Yep, SB or bust.

And we better win it by 20... or heads are gonna roll. We'll be kicking heads down the road instead of just cans.

"Whether it is because of the AFC North or the lack of optimism with QB Deshaun Watson taking back over for QB Joe Flacco, DraftKings has very low odds on Cleveland winning the Super Bowl next year:


For reference, the Jaconsonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets have better odds than the Browns +3500 despite not making the playoffs this year.

Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league, 18th best odds overall, which indicates DraftKings believes they won’t even make the NFL playoffs next year."

I guess their expectations are a little different

I don't know who's examining those odds. +3500 indicates they think the Browns won't even make the playoffs? The Browns were +3500 this year after having been one of eight teams to actually make the playoffs.

Pre season SB odds don't really have anything to do with whether a team is expected to make the playoffs.

"Stefanski doesn't do well with super high expectations."

Really?

Whose expectations? Yours?

The AFC North in 2023 had all four teams over 500. Three played with injuries to their quarterback. The Ravens are in the AFC championship game.
Joe Burrow was injured most of the year.

Why would the Browns be favored to win the North?

DW and how he will play is unknown. Nick Chubb's health and when he will return is unknown.

The Browns are searching for an OC. We don't even know the scheme we will be running. And the Browns should have higher expectations than the Ravens?

In the AFC here are the quarterbacks: Lamar, Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Stroud, Tua.

What do we know now about how DW will perform?

So you refused to answer I straight forward question. I get it. Now do go on and give is another lesson about soccer coaches.

What, you don't like hearing about how Sir Lord Lancelot or whoever had his team winning futball games in Europe?

I just skimmed that part since it wasn't actually relative to the debate. I thought he said Prince Andrew.

That's the craziest thing about all this 'reaction'.

People use the here and now, in the most narrow of scope (one game reaction while ignoring the season), then use that to predict problems in the future. While totally ignoring the road that has led to our greatest success in 25 years.

I know this is "not good enough", but the bottom line is 31 other teams will be saying the same on February 12th.

Quit trying to use the arc to predict doom. It should be making you feel happy and hopeful, not fearing for the worst.

When people fail to use context and instead label it as excuses they're telling you a lot. if they use that type of mentality in every part of their life I feel sorry for their children.

"Well Jimmy you didn't win the state championship in wrestling so you suck! I don't want to hear the excuse that your hamstring was injured most of the season."

"But dad, don't you think that's a little harsh?"

"No Jimmy, excuses are for losers!"

Interesting bashing to say the least.

So, what are your expectations for 2024?

If Stefanski does win Coach of the Year, is the level of expectation a last place finish the next 2 years as previously demonstrated?

Whether you want to admit it or not, the Browns have invested heavily in a number of players but none more than the 230M in Watson. With the Browns having come off a season where they qualified for the playoffs playing their 4th choice at QB, to the simplest mind, wouldn't you expect better with an elite QB being paid 230M and a defending "Coach of the Year" in place for next season? A solid offensive line with the return of injured players and the top RB in football included. Afterall, Berry has an open checkbook so wouldn't the expectations be that he fills the positions of need?

If not, I guess the question is then, when is this FO going to be held accountable for their results and ROI for the largest spend of any team the last 3-years and on pace to be the highest again in 2024?

Look, I'm as happy about the Browns results this year as the next guy but I'm disappointed with the inconsistencies. The amount of money Haslam has spent combined with the desire to acquire elite players should result in consistent victories. That has not happened the last 4 seasons and you're already banking up excuses for next year's team. I'm tired of waiting and especially tired of watching a FO going up and down in the standings like a yoyo. I didn't like the trade for Watson due to the slutty bagage that came with it but him not producing just proves me right as each season that passes. It's way past time for him to earn his money!

So you're okay with this season, you're just still pissed about 2021 and '22? Like, the success this year makes our FO look even worse, because of the inconsistency?

And now you're saying "What's gonna happen when it happens again? Will they be held accountable?!?"



And our coach over-performing is actually a bad thing that helps bolster your argument?


I feel like you're trying to pull some Jedi mind trick.

I’m so sorry I missed that and it was totally unintentional but please help me and ask me that question again.

I had to spend time with my wife this weekend because she’s going back to Brazil tomorrow and visiting our grandchildren so I didn’t have time to follow this thread so closely and on Sunday evening it was playoff games.

Today I had to attend a couple of meetings and do some paper work so now is my first moment paying attention to what’s going on. You have to realize that I’m 6 hours before you in time so maybe I sometimes miss a few posts whenever I return in the mornings to read what’s going on. Anyway I apologize if I didn’t answer you properly.


Regrading the bigger picture I always try to factor a player’s personality when I try to evaluate the future to a former offender. I can’t walk around that I think Watson is a bad apple. What he did in Houston isn’t normal and some unintentional mistake. It’s a calculated decision and done by a person who don’t factor consequences. The old saying about a Zebra is fitting and that’s why I’m worried about giving him to much power. I could be wrong but normally when we talk about these type of personalities the odds often is in favor of the history repeating itself one way or another.

Why do I feel so tiny ?

Am I walking on stars ?

Is that big hairy animal really drinking a beer and talking ?

Dang Jedi

You're going to make me believe the Browns won three SBs back to back

Mind games ! just give me a gummy please ! Not as crazy as a Jedi mind game !

I followed you to the winning part…

Floquinho: These aren’t the front office/coaching staff your looking for

Never say never...

Same age as me.These "going under the radar" type of elder men often has unexpected experience and wisdom who's valuable when it most is needed.

If I was a betting man I would definitely put my money on someone who have "been there and done it"... These new slick addicted abusers, Oh sorry I used the wrong tangents, off course I mean very nice sons like "C(H)unter" and the other female abuser, hmmm, I forgot his name... has always been a patented recipe for disaster if you care about the history but you can never count out idiotic decisions, without them we wouldn't have something to talk about

And what I do is differentiate the person form the player. My opinion of a players character and deeds I can separate from my evaluation of him as a player. Which is a total distraction from my question. That seems to be a go to strategy of yours. So let's try this again.....


And please, no "putting your eggs in one basket" No BS, discussion of soccer coaches or dancing around it. Based on those actions what conclusion do you come to?

Big picture.....I was just comparing our back, Ford, with KC's back, Pacheco. Ford is a 5th rounder, P is a 7th rounder----similar size...BUT Pacheco is WAY FASTER.

I'm of the opinion speed kills- NFL stands for Not For Long- if KC can find a fast good RB in 7th round- we should be able to also. I haven't been happy with Ford- I'd move on.....and somehow we need to find fast receivers who can catch- not our Auburn track star clone- in the later rounds.....GO Browns!!!

So since the 49'ers hit on a starting QB with the last pick in the draft would you also say that the Browns should be able to find a staring QB late in the late 7th round of the draft?

Big picture thinking for this off-season:

1. Offensive tackle: Do they create competition between Jones and Willis at LT? Hypothetically, if Jones wins, does Willis demand to be traded or waived? Conklin can't be relied on. I am good with Willis at LT and Jones at RT. Depth at OT is lacking for sure.

2. Berry should look at the guard positions too. How many more years does Bitonio have left? What about backups for Bitonio and Teller? I feel the OL is a much higher priority over LB and WR.

3. I still think Berry needs to do more at DT. Tomlinson has one year remaining. They need another Ika-like and someone to replace Shelby Harris.

4. Everyone is clamoring for an upgrade at the receiver position. I think WR and QB are the two most "got to have" positions needing upgrades by every fanbase! Without a bit of luck, Berry is not going to find a backup/replacement for Cooper in the draft or free agency. What I think they need at WR is someone to replace Goodwin. Browns have no one reliable with speed. Adding the speed receiver to the mix opens the intermediate routes. Browns have ample mid-range guys.

5. I see most want another LB. Do we need an upgrade at LB or another Delpit/JOK? Is stopping the run more important than stopping a TE or intermediate receiver? Can the Browns make do stopping the run with adequate DTs?

6. You can't have enough corners and defensive ends!

7. Backup QB? I am good with DTR, but I get the argument about having someone with Flacco's credentials.

8. Running-backs. This is a tough decision. If Stefanski is moving toward an 11-personnel scheme, what type of RB is needed if Chubb is not available or gets injured? It is easy to say replace Ford, but you need a good utility type back (blocker, pass-catcher, and runner). These guys are difficult to find. So, do Ford and Strong fit the back by committee? Draft a late-round power back?

9. Coaching? Does it not surprise anyone no one is interviewing any coaches? Houston, with a rookie HC, has two coaches getting looks. This tells me a lot. We have the talent to win 11 games, but the coaching staff lacks innovation. The Browns have become too predictable. I think changing the offensive coaching staff is a big plus. I would like to see changes on the defense side. DL goes stagnant at times. The secondary may benefit from playing more zone. Adding another secondary and DL coach can help diversify.

Naturally, this is what I think needs to be done. Do I think they are critical problems? No. Browns won 11 games. Every year is a new team. I think most fans forget that. It is not simply built on what you had last year. We will see about a 40% roster change.

If you are still reading, thank you!

After watching DTR play and seeing just how raw his skil set is at this juncture I find it amazing anyone would say "I am good with DTR" in relationship to going into next season at the backup QB position.

It's not as if the question is should it be DTR or Flacco. There are several candidates that will be on the market to fill in the backup QB role with a far better resume' at this time than what the raw skills DTR can provide. Let DTR develop and grown into the role over time.

I understand your argument I really do.

There is also the argument about overpaying for insurance.

Berry was able to adapt and overcome by hiring Flacco.

Just for debate, would you say Berry needs to sign a quality replacement for Garrett? Cooper?

Both positions would be a huge loss. Yes, QB is the most important position. Losing either player greatly diminishes the chances of success.

Would having Chubb, help take the pressure off DTR?

I have already answered that question to you earlier in this thread but probably the moderators took that post away because I was too critical of other things connecting to the Brown. I can't remember what it was but probably something offensive

Anyway. To your question, despite you taking cheap shoots and throw insults at me, I agree with Andrew Berry and his gang that they must change OC, and connected coaches, to move forward even if it comes with pros and cons. With a guaranteed 230M contract that's hanging around our neck we have to do what it takes to maximize our investment.

I will later in this thread give my opinion why huge guaranteed contract for most of the time is bad business decisions in general from a standpoint of ROI. The chances to get some decent financial return from such a deal is small and that's why organizations, the Cleveland Browns or whoever, should as a general rule stay away from making such deals. When we do the maths the numbers isn't directly favourable to such financial gambles.

Pacheco also runs HARD while Ford runs weak.

So Pacheco has more yards than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a RB the Chiefs drafted in the 1st round, who has taken a back seat. But the Chiefs are better at drafting RBs than the Browns.

Obviously their gooder at not getting their RBs injured. That crappy Chubb dint even last two games!

Some of your takes bro... Pacheco was ignored 251 times and performed better than 16 RBs drafted ahead of him. This is called an anomaly, not KC being 250 picks smarter than everyone else.

First, I was commenting on hitt's comment/question..
"if KC can find a fast good RB in 7th round- we should be able to also."

My comment pointed out that the Browns had the same opportunity that KC had in 2022 when they passed on Pacheco, preferring to take Ford in the 5th round of the 2022 draft.

If the Browns draft room ever hopes to be considered on the same level as KC, They will need to improve their ability to judge football talent.




fate...any idea why KC decided to draft Pacheco in 2022..?

Seems that Clyde Edwards-Helaire was susceptible to injuries and the Chiefs could not depend on him to be available.


As for your take on Chubb...he lasted 77 games before suffering the knee injury in 2023. No idea what point you might be attempting to make with your inaccurate interpretation of the facts concerning Chubb.






fate...'anomaly' you say...I will call that term exactly what it IS...an often and overused..."EXCUSE"...for the Browns draft room to cover for their inability to judge football/draft talent,





fate...the quote above is what I said and was my final take concerning the hitt comment. You are attempting to debate the conclusion I made...that the Browns draft room need to "improve"....

...some of your takes...

Thats an unwatchable clusterF. Id take most of the posters on DT to have a more constructive and comprehensible discussion.

Let's ask Nick Chubb.

#199 = GOAT

/story

The bigger picture from my POV about why a fully guaranteed contracts is a gamble that's very unlikely to pay off from a ROI.
We can argue about the if's and the why's but this is so far the un maskered reality.


Maximum ROI for a fully guaranteed 5 year contract is 100 games availability and 5 Super Bowl appearances. (17 regular season-/ and 3 playoff -games)
If we break down these numbers it means a cost of 1% per game of 5 years total salary.

Let's look at the Golden standard.

Tom Brady - between 2013 - 2022 Played 158 games and won multiple division, conference and SB titles. (ESPN stats) A average of 15,8 games per season.
Patrick Mahomes - 2018 - 2023 Played 95 games and won multiple division, conference and SB titles (ESPN stats) A average of 15,8 games per season.

Let's look at the Silver standard.

Josh Allen - 2018 - 2023 Played 94 games but only division and conference appearances. (ESPN stats) A average of 15,6 games per season.
Lamar Jackson 2018 - 2023 Played 86 games and only a few division titles (ESPN stats) A average of 14,3 games per season
Joe Burrow 2020 - 2023 Played 52 games and division, conference and SB appearances. (ESPN stats) A average of 13 games per season.

None of these players has/had a fully guaranteed contract. Brady played almost his whole career with a team friendly contract. The rest had first delivered some sorts of success, then they got their contracts.

We must look at Watsons numbers so we can fully understand why a guaranteed contract almost never gives even a decent ROI.

Deshaun Watson - 2017 - 2023 Played 66 games with zero playoff success. (ESPN stats) A average of 9,4 games per season. (injuries and his conflict with HT played a part but his absence in Houston and his first time with the Browns is self made.
Deshaun Watson - 2022-2023 Played 12 games. (ESPN stats) A average of 6 games per season.

Let's say Watson play 3 more seasons with an average of 14 games/season. This gives us a total of 108 games in 9 seasons. A average of 12 game per season.

If we factor all these players salaries then the numbers for Watson are even worse. We literally so far have paid him USD 7,66M per game. Zero trophy's. Zero playoff wins. That's insane.

Not to mention all the other costs that comes with his trade. 3 seasons of draft picks

That's why a fully guaranteed contract for a player that haven't delivered any success to his team is extremely bad business.
Not to mention that the Browns traded for a player with a highly questionable history both as a franchise QB and as a private individual. That's badwill from the first second.

All of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson and Burrow first delivered success, then they got paid. That's how to do it because its a correlation between the outcome and the future income.

I'm 100% sure that this contract will be a case study of how you should't run an organization.

I really really hope that our FO has learned from this mistake. From a viewpoint of an investor it's mind-blowing. Almost fiction.

For the sake of this discussion, let's assume Jackson and Burrow finish the next two or three years on the injured list while Watson equals the production Burrow and Jackson experienced.

Since both Jackson and Burrow don't have a guaranteed contract, will either be released out of their contract? Is the difference of $20 million nonguaranteed creating relief for these teams?

Technically, yes, the Bengals and Ravens can get out from under their contracts. But, will they?

Ravens could have easily walked away from Jackson instead of signing him to a 3/4 guaranteed contract. If I am not mistaken, it was near what Cleveland offered Watson. In the end, Ravens are just as committed as the Browns. If you ask me, I think the Ravens took an even bigger risk thinking Jackson could be more than just a running QB.

All a guaranteed contract does is make the owner pay upfront. A majority of the owners do not have that much-liquidated cash. Guaranteeing contracts allows Haslam an advantage to sign high-quality players over other teams. Is it risky? Yes. Business is risky. It is no more risky than a company taking out a loan to boost a potential profit.