1. First Round: Roughly 97% to 99% of players drafted in the first round make it onto an NFL roster. These are usually the most promising or "sure-bet" players coming out of college and NFL teams tend to take more risks on the first round.
2. Second Round: Approximately 94% to 96% of players drafted in the second round make NFL rosters. These athletes are still high-value but may not have been the first pick due to a position not being a priority for teams drafting early, or they may have minor limitations or concerns.
3. Third Round: Generally, around 85% to 90% of players drafted in this round end up securing a spot on a roster. Despite being drafted later, third round players still show significant potential.
4. Fourth to Seventh Rounds: The success rates can drop a bit from here, but it's not uncommon for these rounds to have some hidden gems. Approximately 60%-70% of fourth-round players make a roster, which dips to 50%-60% in the fifth round, and roughly 30%-50% for the sixth and seventh rounds.
5. Undrafted Players: Only about 15% to 20% of undrafted players (UDFAs) end up securing a spot on an NFL roster. These athletes might not have been picked during the seven rounds of the NFL Draft, but that doesn't mean they don't have potential – they often have to prove themselves more than drafted players.
Maybe someone should look at the actual success rate of draft picks made in the later rounds and say they expect success despite very long adds against it in those later rounds. At least that would be honest.
pit..I did exactly that and you didn't care for the answer..!
You used Dawand Jones, drafted in 4th round last year as an example of drafting a hidden gem in a later round...and I agreed with you.
Since it was Berry's draft room and scouting department that drafted Jones, I went back to Berry's first draft as the Browns GM...2020.
...I counted up the players that Berry had drafted in the 4th round and below the 4th round since becoming the Browns GM...I counted 19 total draft choices.
...the only player to step into a starting role and be considered a solid starting material in the year he was drafted was Dawand Jones...thus he is the standard I used as being a legit "hidden gem". Dawand proved to be better than back-up material, part time material or simply special teams material.
Therefore, Daward is 1 out of 19 picks that meets the standard of drafting a hidden gem.
There's a difference between the standard and the exception to the rule. Rarely is an OT of that talent level who can perform in the NFL to his level found in the fourth round. That's the very definition of "exception".
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
Maybe someone should look at the actual success rate of draft picks made in the later rounds and say they expect success despite very long adds against it in those later rounds. At least that would be honest.
mac, better yet break down each team's success rates in rounds 5-7 in the last five years. It is easy to say Berry missed on this player. If you want an honest grade on Berry, give a count on teams who re-signed their late-round pick to a second contract.
pit...I even used the standard you cited and now you want to fall back on "word games" rather than admit, the Browns ability to find such hidden gems is not so good...1 out of 19 tries.
The boys in the draft room and scouting department need to continue to improve at finding late round talent...find us some more like Dawand.
Maybe someone should look at the actual success rate of draft picks made in the later rounds and say they expect success despite very long adds against it in those later rounds. At least that would be honest.
pit..I did exactly that and you didn't care for the answer..!
You used Dawand Jones, drafted in 4th round last year as an example of drafting a hidden gem in a later round...and I agreed with you.
Since it was Berry's draft room and scouting department that drafted Jones, I went back to Berry's first draft as the Browns GM...2020.
...I counted up the players that Berry had drafted in the 4th round and below the 4th round since becoming the Browns GM...I counted 19 total draft choices.
...the only player to step into a starting role and be considered a solid starting material in the year he was drafted was Dawand Jones...thus he is the standard I used as being a legit "hidden gem". Dawand proved to be better than back-up material, part time material or simply special teams material.
Therefore, Daward is 1 out of 19 picks that meets the standard of drafting a hidden gem.
Interesting definition of "hidden gem." Late rounder that has to be a starter in his rookie year. We had Nick Chubb, no other RB was going to be a starter while he was here. In places where we needed starters, we drafted them by round 3.
You don't expect late rounders to be starters immediately. Especially not on teams with good rosters with no glaring holes. You might draft future starters ("developmental" players.) The only reason Jones started was because Conklin got hurt.
Using your definition, a team that has good starters will hardly ever find hidden gems.
DPJ was a 6th rounder that started 30 games for us. He didn't start as a rookie because we had 2 (former) Pro Bowl WRs in Landry and OBJ.
Cam Mitchell actually did start a few games last season. He didn't start more because he was behind Ward, Emerson, and Newsome.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
The only one playing word games here is you. An exception isn't a standard by any definition. Claiming it is, is the word game here. Hoping they will find them is not only our hope but there's as well. But the odds of that happening are low and somehow you have decided that beating the odds by a wide margin is now "the standard".
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
The squabbles on here are endless. At this point, I expect them and don't get too invested in any of them. With that being said, it seems that the definition of a "hidden gem" draft selection is nebulous. What I mean is it's arbitrary to say it has to be a late round pick or even a pick at all because player acquisition happens in a number of ways.
Martin Emerson qualifies in my opinion. Drafted in round 3 of 2022 he was not on my radar. He didn't seem to be on the radar of most media or Browns fans if we're being honest. He has outperformed his draft status to date.
JOK has outperformed his draft status as well. Berry recognized the value and aggressively moved up to get him when he was sliding.
Given Grant Delpits' medical history and questions about his ability to withstand injury he was a steal.
Alex Wright is on the verge of becoming a steal and he continues to develop on the arc he appears to be on this time next year we might say confidently that he was a steal.
Since the argument seems to be about the franchise as a whole and not just Berry the acquisition of Wyatt Teller who had a so-so career before coming to the Browns should also be considered a hidden gem.
Im hoping that we'll be talking about Jerry Jeudy as a hidden gem because a 5th and a 6th for that talent could be huge.
In the end it is about building the entire roster 1 to 53. Depth is often the key to winning by the end of the season.
Berry has done a good job. No GM hits 1000%. If you have a good roster with depth that is what counts.
Mike Mayock was a TV draft guru. He leveraged that into becoming a GM. Once in that position he found out that it is not as easy as it is talking about the draft.
How many number one draft picks have failed? Winston and Baker were not busts but neither has had the expected careers as most predicted.
The history of the draft proves it is a crap shoot.
Since the argument seems to be about the franchise as a whole and not just Berry the acquisition of Wyatt Teller who had a so-so career before coming to the Browns should also be considered a hidden gem.
guard..I just want to add a bit of information concerning the Browns acquisition of Wyatt Teller.
Teller was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the 5th round of the 2018 draft after playing 4 seasons at Virginia Tech. After his senior season Teller was named to the All-ACC first team and was named the runner up for the ACC Jacobs Blocking Trophy.
As a rookie, Teller was a back-up OG for the Bills until game 10 when he was named the starting OG for the last 7 games of the 2018 season. John Dorsey, the Browns GM, worked out a trade for Teller just before the start of the 2019 season..Dorsey traded a Browns 5th and a 6th round pick of the 2020 draft for Teller with the Bills throwing in their 7th round pick of the 2021 draft to complete the deal.
Teller became a starting OG for the Browns in week 9 of the 2019 season and remains the Browns starter, earning all-pro honors in 2020 and 2021 along with Pro-Bowl honors in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
The Bills might have under valued Teller's potential after his rookie season but the Browns made them an offer that was good enough to steal Teller away from them.
Whether drafting or acquiring talent via trade, recognizing player potential and talent are a must for the Browns if they expect to win a Super Bowl in the next few years. The Browns need to hit on as many of their draft picks as they possibly can... and make smart trades that improve the performance of the offense, defense and special teams.
There is a 20% probability that Troy Franklin will be there when we select at 54.
IMO if he is there we need to draft him. I think it would be a big mistake if we did not.
Which simulator is giving you that probability? The one I tried didn't seem very accurate. I didn't mind drafting guys that only had 10% chances of getting where they fell repeatedly, but the percentages didn't seem to make sense/play out that way.
Franklin could be a good player. I'm not sure I see it for us. WR projections seem to be all over the place now. Hard to know which ones might be available.
I could actually see us going LB. Trevin Wallace could be a fit, maybe. Someone that can cover, and also would seem to have the range to help corral Lamar.
I'm starting to wonder if LB and TE might be the play "early", then OL and RB on day 3. Of course, if the right player drops in our lap that goes out the window.
It's kind of hard to find spots on the 53 for rookies. It's almost weird to not be needing instant starters.
I was on board with the there are so many good receivers in this draft we should take one approach. However, the more I think about it, the less I want to go that direction. There will be a bunch of good receivers every draft. That room looks pretty well stocked for this coming season. With Cooper, Jeudy, Moore, and Tillman, I'm not sure a rookie would see the field.
I could see us drafting for future needs, and a WR would make more sense in that light, but I still think it's more likely that a good receiver would be available to plug and play in next year's draft than other positions.
Because there appears to be a lot of depth at some positions (WR, OL,) I kind of wonder if teams might try to wait on those and they fall a bit (probably not the top 3 WRs.) It will be interesting to see how this draft plays out.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
I did not look at offensive linemen. I looked Braden Fiske who I like a lot.
However, I am zeroing in on two guys. Trey Benson and Troy Franklin.
Benson I believe is going to be a good pro. Because of the entire situation surrounding Nick; I think we should draft him.
Franklin has skills that I believe will fit the Browns. He was the very first guy I looked at in the draft. Then I started looking at other receivers.
I kept coming back to Franklin. His tape when you keep watching is very impressive. Greg Cosell sealed it for me. Nobody studies more tape than Greg Cosell.
Bone I mentioned that I felt we should take an OL or a DL with pick 54. However, whomever we choose at whatever position if he turns out to be a good player for us that's all I'm concerned about. That to me is the bottom line.
Bone I mentioned that I felt we should take an OL or a DL with pick 54. However, whomever we choose at whatever position if he turns out to be a good player for us that's all I'm concerned about. That to me is the bottom line.
Yes. Berry's put us in a position where we can and should draft BPA.
And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul. - John Muir
And what you saw is the problem. No matter how you slice it some of these "draft gurus" are no better at predicting the draft than some posters on this board.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
Bone I mentioned that I felt we should take an OL or a DL with pick 54. However, whomever we choose at whatever position if he turns out to be a good player for us that's all I'm concerned about. That to me is the bottom line.
Yes. Berry's put us in a position where we can and should draft BPA.
I agree. We went in with guardrails everybody agreed upon. We selected players in a methodical way to build the team inside the parameters set. The FO has done a good job of addressing needs before the draft to give us the flexibility to just draft good players without needs dictating 85% of the selection. We are at the point where Berry's idea of needs isn't simply this year. It is more about next year and the year after when selecting players.
We are finally a professional football team with a competent staff from planning, to player aquation, to on field management. We are in a good spot.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
I feel as though the biggest deal by far that they've made to date is still undetermined. That one still weighs pretty heavily. Outside of that I must agree with you.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
I feel as though the biggest deal by far that they've made to date is still undetermined. That one still weighs pretty heavily. Outside of that I must agree with you.
Fair comment, and no doubt the final results are undetermined. I do think that on the whole the FA selections have been at least on the good side. You are never going to hit on every move. I guess to define good...in a classic grading system, "B-" would be my grade.
But Watson will be like that final test one takes that accounts for a larger portion of your overall grade but isn't the entire grade.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
The two guys I have been pimping were Troy Franklin and Trey Benson.
That's not definitive, but I have some hesitation with Franklin. He could work out, but I see some bust potential.
He probably wouldn't be the route I'd go.
Edit: I'm under the impression that that was taken from Bob McGinn's work, and he's had some notable misses (CJ Stroud.) But, it resonated with the concerns I felt.
Last edited by Bull_Dawg; 04/17/2408:42 AM.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
"In 1984, Greg Cosell with NFL Films President Steve Sabol created a show titled Monday Night Matchup (now known as NFL Matchup) which was initially hosted by Chris Berman."
He watches over 40 hours of film a week.
I posted his video and his take on Franklin and other receivers in this draft.
"In 1984, Greg Cosell with NFL Films President Steve Sabol created a show titled Monday Night Matchup (now known as NFL Matchup) which was initially hosted by Chris Berman."
He watches over 40 hours of film a week.
I posted his video and his take on Franklin and other receivers in this draft.
Billy M???
Yeah, don't know Billy M, but someone I follow retweeted it. Some digging indicated that it's pulled from something by Bob McGinn, a sportswriter that covered the Packers for ~40 years.
I generally like Cosell, but nobody bats 1,000 in the draft.
Franklin has some things he does well. I just see some things that could hold him back. I'd rather take a player that I have more conviction in. Especially when I don't see WR as a need. Franklin is only 21, so he's definitely not a finished product. I wouldn't hate it if we picked him, it's just not what I would do.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
I would just as soon take our picks and package them into moving up in the draft. We don't have a ton of spots on the roster .... and if I could add a couple of potential impact players, I would rather do that,
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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