DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus The Economy Part 2

Now you have gone off the deep end.... again.

It's okay, buddy. We know you can't help it.


By the way, what do you think obtuse means?

We both know what it means. With you the sad part is that it's only an act to pretend you don't know what you claimed. Some people refer to it as playing stupid.

You have claimed all along that the two parties want to convince you that nobody outside their nominees can get elected. Once it was shown to you with the time constraints involved that can not happen at this juncture you pretend that wasn't your assertion all along. Anyone who has been following our discussion on the topic knows this.

The time constraint isn't zero, you "annoyingly insensitive or and slow to understand" (the definition of obtuse, which you claimed to be) nincompoop. There is still time for possibilities if you obtuse "party-poopers" (nincompoops on either side of the political aisle) could get your heads out of your behinds and stop supporting Lousy and Lousier.

That's the only two choices we have in this election at this juncture since they're both still breathing. We both know that no matter how much you proclaim otherwise. And if you can't see the difference between the two, which you have already been admitted you do, that's a you issue at this point.

It's the only two options you see. But then, you're obtuse.

Please show me the other options based on the timeline given to qualify to get on the ballots in the 36 states I have shown you? You've never given a scenario where that will work while continuing to spout the same nonsense. Don't you think it's time you do more than just make noise?

We could use the time still left to find options if everyone wasn't so busy clubbing each other over the head with how bad the other "popular" (sheeple) option is.

I am "doing more." I'm preparing to go the expat route. Yet, I hold out hope that sanity might somehow prevail in my native (in your case, you can drop the "t") country.

You're the bleating sheep that reads himself his posts as he types just to hear the noise.

So even though your assertions previously you were referring to this coming election, you're actually referring to future elections. Because the "we" you mentioned is part of your problem here. You would have to have enough people agreeing on one single candidate in less than two months to make any of that happen. While the "we" you mention may have enough people to agree we need a better candidate, which I too am included in that group, that same "we" would have to agree on who that candidate should be in less than two months and in 11 states less than one month. That's the biggest glitch in your hypothesis. And you deciding go the expat route won't change any of this. If that's your idea of doing more have at it.

Facing the reality of the current situation we're in doesn't make anyone a sheeple.

I'm still referring to this and future elections.

I'd actually just need everyone to realize not to support these pathetic candidates which most people including yourself have agreed are bad.

It wouldn't necessarily matter how many voted for whomever else if nobody voted for either of those two.

There are provisions for write-in candidates, as well. So not being on the ballot isn't a non-starter.

Sometimes the best one can do is accepting the things they can't change and avoiding the shitshow. I should probably just go back to avoiding you.

Your (and others) being a "sheeple" contributes to one of those two bad partisan figureheads being elected again becoming reality.

Have a nice life in lemming America.

Once again, you would need enough people to agree on a single candidate to vote for in order to win the 2024 election. I'm not any happier about that than you are but that is the reality as it stands.

There is certainly enough time to change that in future elections however if people can organize. But they will need to start that soon. It's not going to happen in the span of a couple of months. It will take a groundswell that will take time to build. It will take a lot of money to run a national campaign.

Facing the reality of where we stand at the current time doesn't mean someone is happy about it. It doesn't mean they support it. It means they have a firm grasp on where things stand..... for now. Trying to make that into something it isn't I don't think is something even you believe.

I think you must have taken yourself off the truth serum again. It gets tough for you then. Since what I said is “fake news” point out the wrong information.

Our economy is the BEST-IN-THE-WORLD by ALL METRICS. Thanks Joe, you’re doing a fine job. Haters will crap on that fact.

link

Best in the World!

We’re doing good. It’s not the best, but people need to stop acting as if we’re in a depression.

Conservatives favorite metric is the stock market. I’m doing just fine on there. Maybe they should just invest better.

yuk

4.3% is super low historically, and while it’s only 114k this month, what’s the total job openings?

Unless this is just fake outrage to try and convince the fed to cut rates. The interest rates smacking y’all that bad, huh?

You must remember, he's still praying for the economy to collapse under Biden.

https://reason.com/2024/08/02/whats-the-sahm-rule-alarming-jobs-report-raises-recession-risk/

What's the Sahm Rule? Alarming Jobs Report Raises Recession Risk.
A key indicator has predicted every recession since 1970, and the alarm just sounded.

A bummer of a jobs report released Friday morning triggered a sharp drop in the stock market and stoked fear of a coming recession—thanks to something known as the "Sahm Rule."

So what is that?

It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, who served as a top economic advisor during the Obama administration and identified a historical indicator of coming recessions in 2019: every time since 1970 that the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is more than half a percentage point above the lowest three-month moving average from the previous year, a recession has soon followed.

That's a bit complicated, admittedly. If you want to know what it looks like in practice, check out today's jobs report. Unemployment in July ticked upwards to 4.3 percent. Over the past three months, the average unemployment rate has been 4.13 percent. That's quite a bit higher than the lowest three-month average from the past year—which was 3.63 percent, between June and August 2023.


Thus, the Sahm Rule has been triggered.

But the "rule" is also a set of guidelines. In the 2019 paper where Sahm identified this historical early warning system for a coming recession, she called for governments to begin distributing stimulus payments as soon as this alert was triggered. Doing so, she argued, would allow for a speedier response to a recession by eliminating the lag that occurs while politicians and other observers debate whether a recession is coming and what to do about it. Essentially, it is meant to be a technocratic solution to a recurring problem.

The political system has not adopted that approach—and thank goodness, because the federal government is $35 trillion in debt and already on pace to run a $2 trillion deficit this year. There's literally no money for stimulus checks right now.

The markets, however, seem to be taking the Sahm Rule seriously. There was a huge sell-off on the stock market Friday morning and bond yields fell as well—an indication that investors are essentially "pricing in" the cost of a coming downturn.

But there's one more complicating factor. Sahm herself says this might be a false alarm.

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Sahm doesn't think the economy is on the immediate cusp of a recession. She reckons that changes in the supply of labor since the pandemic, including the recent jump in immigration, have led the Sahm rule to overstate how weak the job market is."

"We are still in a good place, but until we see signs of stabilizing, of leveling out, I'm worried," Sahm, who also worked at the Federal Reserve and is now the chief economist at New Century Advisors, an investment firm, told the Journal.

It's good to be cautious about the predictive power of historical trends. Indeed, in that 2019 paper, Sahm warned that "the Sahm rule is an empirical regularity. It's not a proposition; it's not a law of nature."


Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell echoed that sentiment this week. He called the Sahm Rule "a statistical regularity" on Wednesday, adding that "it's not like an economic rule, where it's telling you something must happen." At a meeting earlier this week, the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady, though it indicated that a rate cut could be coming in September.

So are we heading for a recession or not? As always, it's impossible to know until we're already in one. The commonly used definition of a recession is back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth—but the economy grew by 2.8 percent during the second quarter of 2024. By that metric, it would take until the end of the year for the country to be in a recession.

The official arbiter of recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private entity whose definition of a recession takes into account monthly indicators like employment, personal income, and industrial production along with quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth (by their terms, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth often, but not always, correspond with an official recession).

Still, the outlook is certainly darker after Friday's jobs report. If a recession is coming, the federal government's and Federal Reserve's ability to respond will be severely limited by the poor fiscal and monetary decisions that have left the Treasury deeply in debt and the central bank's balance sheets overstretched.

The Sahm Rule has correctly predicted every recession in the past half-century. Let's hope it got this one wrong.

This cracks me up. Biden’s economy is humming along just fine, yet after picking through a mountain of coarse ground black pepper, they finally found a spec of fly crap… Woot Woot! Am I the only one who finds American’s trying to wish economic woes like recession into existence REALLY WEIRD?

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...prices-2024-07-31/?utm_source=reddit.com

Electricity 800% higher priced. Yeah, that's Biden's economy. The wheels are falling off.

I am going to assume you did not know what you were looking at. That was PJM's capacity auction-and yes it did go up, but rates are not going up 8x. This part of the auction accounts for about 8% of a consumers bill.
And after the last auction that increased our price thru our power company, we just shopped the rate and got a lower rate than what we were paying and locked it in for a few years.

But you may be right about one thing and you didn't even know it-Bidens Economy-There is so much new projects out there, it is insane. They are building every where. We are working on new manufacturing plants, EV Battery plants for automakers and for the microgrid. And the data center work just won't stop coming-its insane how much new building is going on. And that doesn't even go into the other projects that are out of our territory or that we can't man-like the insane amount of work at the Intel plant and the amount of work going on at hospitals also-especially around the Pittsburgh and Columbus areas

And that also doesn't even touch the other parts of our business-high voltage and highway/transportation-the projects from the infrastructure bill are really just now starting to hit and they are coming in waves.

One thing, this auction and the one last year do say-demand is increasing-a lot-and the power plants are either not keeping up with expansion of existing plants or they are retiring too many-they need to step up and start spending some money on additional capacity-whether they build new plants or start buying from other means-like solar

That is peak power selling. Spot market pricing. So companies are preparing for a shortfall.

Thanks Lima. Are you in that field?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Updated Mon, Aug 5 20249:32 AM EDT
Dow drops 1,000 points, Nasdaq craters 6% in global market rout: Live updates


U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday as part of a global market sell-off centered around U.S. recession fears. Japan’s Nikkei 225
plunged 12% in its worst day since the 1987 Black Monday crash for Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
dropped 1,068 points, or 2.7%. The Nasdaq Composite
lost 6%, and the S&P 500
slid 4.2%.

Fears of a U.S. recession were the main culprit for the global market meltdown after Friday’s disappointing July jobs report. Investors are also concerned that the Federal Reserve is behind in cutting interest rates to bolster an economic slowdown, with the central bank choosing instead to keep rates at the highest in two decades last week.


There’s also an unwinding of the once-hot artificial intelligence trade going on. Tech shares were among the worst performers in early trading Monday:

Nvidia
tumbled 9% Monday after going into the session already down more than 23% from its recent high.
Apple
cratered more than 8% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway cut its stake in the iPhone-maker in half.
Other losers included Tesla
, down 7%, and Broadcom
and Super Micro Computer
down more than 9% apiece.
In Asia overnight, Japan stocks confirmed a bear market as Asia-Pacific investors had their first chance to react to the sour jobs figures in the U.S. from Friday. The 12.4% loss on the Nikkei — which closed at 31,458.42 — was the worst day for the index since the “Black Monday” of 1987 hit Wall Street. The loss of 4,451.28 points on the index was also the largest in terms of points in its entire history. The Dow lost more than 22% in a single day on Black Monday.

Other global markets were also severely impacted:

U.S. Treasury yields tumbled on the recession fears and as investors flooded into bonds for a global safe haven. Bond prices move inversely to yields. The benchmark 10-year note on Friday yielded 3.76%, down from where it was one week previously at 4.20% and the lowest in a year.
Bitcoin tumbled from nearly $62,000 Friday to around $52,000 on Monday.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was off by 2.6% in London.
The CBOE Volatility Index
shot higher to above 53, its highest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020.
There is also chatter about the unwind of yen “carry trade” adding fuel to the global market decline after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week. The yen is rising in value vs. the U.S. dollar, ending a practice of traders borrowing in the cheap currency to buy other global assets.

“It’s painful,” said Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” “I think there’s a lot being absorbed that happened over the weekend between Berkshire cutting Apple...you had the Japan sell-off... you have the yen spike and the end of that carry trade...You have a lot of bad news getting priced in.”

“This is a pullback, a correction,” she added. “We’ll probably hit oversold at some point...rather quickly at these levels.”

On Friday, the Nasdaq capped a third straight week of losses, bringing the tech-heavy index down more than 10% from a record set last month. The S&P 500 also posted a third straight losing week, down 2% for the week. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been outperforming, snapped a four-week win streak, falling 2%. The S&P 500 went into Monday’s session down 5.7% from its recent all-time high.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, while avoiding commitment to a specific course of action, indicated that interest rates at their current level may be too “restrictive” on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.

If economic conditions meaningfully deteriorate, the central bank will “fix it,” Goolsbee added.

Economic data due out Monday include the July ISM Services PMI, a measure of the performance of U.S. services companies that’s set to show a rise to 50.9, up from 48.8 previously.




________________


let's see where the market ends up. It was down over 1200 points today...

I hope it will crawl back to end up around -600

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...y-unemployment-rate-rises-43-2024-08-02/

Interesting article diving into the jobs #s and what they (could) mean.

https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/...ecession-fears-intensify#google_vignette


Dow Futures Retreat 1,200 Points as Recession Fears Intensify
Fed fears are continuing to bubble
avatar
Emma Duncan
Managing Editor
Aug 5, 2024 at 9:21 AM

Recession fears continue to rock Wall Street this week, with futures on the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and S&P 500 Index (SPX) sharply lower before the bell. Extending the pullback that followed last week's disappointing jobs data, investors are continuing to retreat from Big Tech, with Apple (AAPL) leading the way after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) cut 49% of its stake in the iPhone maker.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

Recession panic wiped out Wall Street's gains.
Seasonal tailwinds could boost this China stock.
Plus, COIN dragged with Bitcoin; and 2 stocks suffering pre-earnings drops.
futureschartaug5
5 Things You Need to Know Today
The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 2 million call contracts and 1.6 million put contracts exchanged on Friday. The single-session equity put/call rose to 0.81, while the 21-day moving average remained at 0.66.
Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) is down nearly 20% before the bell, suffering a steep selloff alongside crypto leader Bitcoin (BTC). BTC was dragged below the key $50,000 mark for the first time in 2024. Heading into today, however, Coinbase stock boasted a 17.5% lead.
Software giant Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) is off more than 15% to trade at $20.90 premarket, with investors anticipating its earnings report, slated for after the close. The shares pulled back Friday, captured by the ascending 80-day moving average. For 2024, PLTR has added 44%.
Lucid Group Inc (NYSE:LCID) is another security suffering pre-market losses ahead of its earnings report, the shares down 8% at $3.12 ahead of the open. A loss per share of 27 cents is estimated for the auto manufacturer, which has already shed 54% over the last 12 months.
The S&P final U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) and ISM services index are due out today.
buzzaug5

Japan Suffers Worst Day Since "Black Monday" Crash
Asian markets settled firmly lower on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei shed 12.4% for its worst day since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987, brushing off a stronger yen and turning negative for the year, while South Korea’s Kospi lost 8.8%. Elsewhere, investors unpacked better-than-expected July services data out of China and a rising purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading. Nevertheless, China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both fell 1.5%.

European markets are also in the red amid recession fears and sinking oil prices. Services data for July is in focus as well, with the U.K.’s PMI reading beating analysts’ estimates, while similar data out of Italy and Spain suggested growth. Still, the German DAX is down 3.3%, London’s FTSE 100 is 2.9% lower, and France’s CAC 40 is off 2.6%




hopefully, this will be the lowest it goes today.

Assets that are Drip’d are gonna see a nice boost!

j/c

But, hey, just as we've been told about Sleepy Joe being just fine, and as the libs have told us "the economy is booking under Bidenomics", we get this: https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-covid-surge-stronger-longer-100010378.html

Prepare your recession pants.

Time to buckle down folks. GO Biden!!!

The market is crazy. Taking big hits on investments.

Buying opportunity awaits. The market is on sale!

probably not for a few days

As long as it doesn't keep going down.

I buy whether it’s up or down, baby!!!

If you can't take the ups and downs, put your money between your mattress and box spring.

I can understand how a disappointing jobs report combined with high interest rates that struggle to get inflation under control can stoke fears of a recession. Unemployment edging higher is never good, but I'm wondering if this is just us doom-and-gloom'ing. It was written that the jobs numbers are being led by the Tech sector, which is experiencing a correction. Intel just laid off like a gajillion people. I'm wondering if an isolated industry is having an outsized influence on the overall numbers.

You wonder if it's the doom and gloomers? Just read the posts. Even on this very board people are salivating over just the possibility that the economy may tank because a democrat is president. And all it took was one day. Wonder no more.

j/c:

OR ~ it's a response to people constantly touting how strong the economy is and that "Bidenomics" was a good thing even though we have to sell sex on Brookpark to buy bread. Just yesterday Biden says his gift to the world was that he fixed the economy.