DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Election Day is 3 Weeks Tomorrow

Starting a new thread about the election as it is 3 weeks tomorrow. Discuss early voting number of ballots returned, polling for Presidential or State races.

The first thing I will post is that I was looking at polls yesterday on 538 and it was showing the race really tightening-
Then I saw on twitter that somebody grouped the 7 battleground states and it showed trump winning all of them, 4 of them by 1 point and the other three by two or three points. Then I went and checked where the polls were linked to and it was on the 538 website and all 7 of these polls for the battleground states were sponsored (paid for) by donald j trump.
So then I went through some other polls that I never heard from and they were all new-One was sponsored by The Center for Rural America, Article 3 Project, American Greatness, Sentinel Action Fund (Superpac). If you look at the polling from Pennsylvania using the NY Times/Sienna poll and a couple of these polls-there is a 5-6% point difference for the same polling period (Oct 7-10) time period.





Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’
Updated: Oct. 13, 2024, 6:56 p.m.|Published: Oct. 12, 2024, 8:10 a.m.
Trump Harris
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)AP





By Kevin Manahan | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
As polls seem to indicate that former president Donald Trump has momentum in some swing states with 24 days remaining until the Nov. 5 presidential election, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says: Don’t buy it.

About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has happened.

What role could third-party presidential candidates play in the 2024 election?What role could third-party presidential candidates play in the 2024 election?
The purpose is two-fold, Rosenberg said: To excite Trump’s base and discourage Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters, while also providing Trump with ammunition to say the election was rigged if he loses.


In a tweet thread, Rosenberg explained:

“Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12 have right/GOP affiliations. Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning — when he isn’t — escalated in last few days.


“I urge journalists and researchers to dive into FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have flooded the zone again. MT, PA, NC were initial targets but now it’s all 7 battleground states.

“This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon — and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian.”


Rosenberg pointed to a New York Times autopsy on the 2022 midterm elections: “The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative.”

Rosenberg also referred to a recent New York Times report — “Elon Musk is going all-in to elect Trump” — that shows coordination between Twitter/X owner Elon Musk and the Trump campaign.

Musk shut down a Twitter/X account that published hacked materials from the Trump campaign. And according to the New York Times, Musk and his team have set up a war room in Pittsburgh to strategize with a team of lawyers and public-relations professionals to help Trump win.

On Thursday, American Muckrakers posted about emails it received detailing how the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports, which claims to be nonpartisan, shared polling results with Trump advisers and campaign officials like Dan Scavino, Susie Wiles, and John McLaughlin.


“More than 25 organizations are now involved in red wave 2024,” Rosenberg tweeted. “Last week, they dropped 27 polls. This week it’s more. Ferocity of effort to make it look like Trump is winning clearly means they don’t think he is.”

and then there is polls like the Morning Consult-who do data mining for a business who showed middle of last week that Harris is up about 6% nationally. But you can't go into the data breakdown without going through a paywall.

I think this election is much too close to call. You are right that certain polls are manufactured often times with political interests that want to slant data in a manner to discourage people from voting because it presents their side as already having lost. But I certainly don't think either side has monopoly on that. We are however now the point that we even see states making last minute changes in their voting laws to try to sway the election results. We are seeing election conspiracy theorists now in charge of, if not at least a part of running election and/or certifying elections.

If trump outright wins this election I think the transition will be pretty smooth. If he loses? If you thought the $#!+storm you saw in 2020 was bad, it will look like a walk in the park compared to what we'll be seeing this time. The win at all costs message we saw then will reach an entire new level. They have been honing their craft.

It occurred to me over the weekend, that Trump is really on his last best chance to stay out of jail on election day, and I’m thinking there is a plan in place to steal the election and some sort of call for civil war or another coop attempt if he loses… I hope he just goes away quietly, but we all know, that’s not who he is. And if he wins, we are all doomed.

I don’t think it will even be close in REAL voting, but who knows what kind of crap GOPers have set up on the local and state levels to steal this election. And I mean steal it by CHEATING, throwing away dem votes, or any other nefarious crap. I’m just glad Springfield Ohio called him out for the trash that he and Vance are. That gives me a little hope that it won’t get violent on a massive level.

Get ready for Trump and the insanity that will be his second term in office.

Polling is trending to him and he has momentum with the short run to election day. National polls mean diddly squat, only about 5 battle ground states matter. It may come down to PA.

And yes of course there is a plan in place to steal the election if he does lose .... it's been in the works for a long time and every close race will be bogged down with legal challenges.

Trump, if he does loose, will do more to undo democracy in the USA than he already has and it will be ugly.

That’s the scenario we should plan for, that and voting. I personally think Kamala wins. I don’t think the polls are anywhere close to accurate, but I was stunned and disappointed in 2016, when those polls were so wrong. And like you I worry, I vote, and do everything I can to get others to vote for democracy, but it’s scary just 3 weeks out, very scary imo.

I know you’re Canadian.

You know you sound exactly like Trump in this post.

Yeah, he makes me that crazy. I can’t wait until he is no longer.

sureee..If he was going to destroy it, he would have first term.. anyone voting for Harris/walz after all we have seen about these clowns, deserve whats coming. Voting for that ticket after Biden is like crapping your pants and changing your shirt
BAHAHAHAHAHAH I think you need to follow the appeal proceedings, you'll think differently if you think he's going to jail.. someone might be, but its not Trump

"anyone voting for Harris/walz after all we have seen about these clowns, deserve whats coming"

You must have a short memory. Trump version 1 was an utter disaster. Add the fact he's now been found liable for sexual assault. And He's felon.

And if you don't want to listen to reason.... Listen to all the people who worked closely with him. Listen to his former VP. Claiming to have some sort of political high ground while voting for Trump is beyond unbelievable.

I wonder *if* Trump loses, does he run again in 2028? does MAGA go the way of the tea party?

He could, he should be out of prison by then.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

With a bunch of polls combined - they are saying it's 50-50


https://www.breitbart.com/2024-elec...s-paths-victory-weeks-from-election-day/

"Trump’s easiest path to victory includes three swing states, all on the East Coast: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. These three states would put Trump precisely at 270 votes, securing him a second term."

-- I think GA and NC are most likely to go red - so it may come down to PA as I mentioned before. PA seems to be literally 50-50. 49-50. 50-49 depending on the day you look at it.

We lose no matter which side wins.

Wrong, you can’t see the difference between right or wrong if that’s what you think. We loose if we get a dictatorship on day one.

Meanwhile early voting started today in Georgia while Trump is promoting mail in voting all of a sudden and sway dancing for 40 min in a rally instead of answering questions and taking interviews. What a maroon.

The question is what and how much of it do you lose.

Pray tell who? They spent years trying to do that to Hillary and failed. They've been trying to find any excuse to impeach Biden since he was elected and have failed. But of course trump calls everyone who has been against him "the enemies from within" and has threatened to use the National guard and even the military to round them up. In case you missed it, this is exactly what a dictator sounds like.



In case you missed it, he will not be president on election day. He will not have the power to use the National Guard or the military. but he's now so delusional he doesn't seem to be able to comprehend that. Yet after his felony convictions, a jury having found him to have committed sexual assault, his attempt to over throw the 2020 election, you don't give a damn about any of this.

Again, it's unlike anything I've ever seen.

As if it weren't bad enough, this whole new "enemies from within" where he threatens using the military against his opponents takes things to yet another level all together. This latest BS makes it obvious they would be voting far a wannabe dictator. And still they don't care.

What the hell is the value of Fake Polls? I mean, if the Right is pushing poll data that is not accurate, what's the value? Make Trump happy? I mean, I get wanting to keep your candidate happy but isn't it a disservice to the candidate by giving him a false sense of security? Just feels like it's dumb.

That's one way to look at it. But from a different perspective I think they believe that if they can convince the voters of their opponent they have the election secured it may discourage liberals from voting because they feel it's a lost cause.

I think the statistics support that GOP voters always show up. Spreading apathy among liberals seems to be an easier goal to accomplish.

The only thing I could think of is to change the narrative and to appease trump. If the R's flood the zone with a bunch of polls that offset the other polls and they are running neck and neck, does it give him ammo to go on a stump speech and claim that this great poll from American Greatness or TIPP that shows him ahead and rile up the base (I don't think they need any). It also gives him ammo after so he can cry and moan that it was taken from him and set up the next round.

There is a couple polls I was looking at in Georgia. One poll is by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates/McLaughlin taken from Oct 6-9 sponsored by trump. It shows he has a lead of +5. There is another poll by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates/GBAO for the Wall Street Journal taken from Sept 28 to October 8 that shows Harris +2. It has got to be in the methodology behind the polls-the old garbage in garbage out-We will see in three weeks.

I was watching a clip last night of somebody going through the methodology of a poll that showed trump +1 in Pennsylvania. Yes, it was right leaning. It showed trump up but was using numbers that only 10% of the black vote in Philadelphia will show up for this election-The national average of blacks voting going back to the 60's is between 48 and 64 percent. The two highest numbers (both above 60%) were when a black man named Barack Obama was running for president. 10% is a little bit light-by like 40%. And this is where the dems are getting a big number of votes-Philadelphia is about 6-1 dems. The methodology of this poll also assumed trump would get 30% black vote. The high number of polling I saw for 2024 was about 13% and that is going down some. Biden won the black vote in Pennsylvania by getting 95% of the vote in 2020.

Not sure why the polls matter to the GOP or Trump. Considering they’ll basically call for a civil war if they loose.

And that's one of the very reasons why they use fake polls. It will help reinforce their lies to their supporters that the election was "once again stolen" if they lose. I can almost hear it now..."They stole this election! Did you see the polls!? They had me winning easily. There's no way if this election had been fair that I could have lost!"

The stage is being set and this is one of the props they will use if they lose. We've seen this song and dance before.

Arguing fake polls over actual election results is futile. But I guess Trump will do Trump.

538 used to be very neutral. It's now owned by ABC so I'm sure that will get negative reaction from some.... But their polls are all close and they use a range of polls many of which are left leaning.

Oddly, it is a lost cause, especially if she wins.

Look at California. It has turned to crap. The big problem we face is the spread of the cancer across the land.

First Day early voting in Georgia was today.

In 2020 there were 134,000 votes cast on the first day.

Today at 5 pm, there were 263,000 votes cast

The tea party became MAGA. It’s a bigot magnet.

According to the Polymarket, as of October 15, the US former president is ahead of the vice president with a 57.9% chance of victory.

https://polymarket.com/elections

crazy

Peen - I think you need to read wider and from a more neutral source. Calling the Dems communists and Marxists and referring to what the democrats do in power or their ideology as cancer is as extreme as it gets.

I think racism is a cancer. I think bigotry and hate is cancerous. I would never say that the Republicans are cancerous or even Trump supporters ... individuals based on individual actions maybe but doubtful.

I do think Trump doesn't respect law and order or the constitution - that's based on what he did and said when in power, it's based on his convictions, it's based on telling a GA official to find the number of votes he needed to win GA. It's based on Jan 6th.

It's also based on the myriad of statements made by people who worked closely with him in his administration from Pence and Barr to Generals. In case you missed it General Miller said Trump is without doubt a fascist and "He is now the most dangerous person to this country,"

Trump is now (again) a heavy favorite to win the election with Vegas. I'd say Harris is done at this point. Get ready for Trump 2.0

** and I would trust Vegas more than Polling to predict the outcome.

The right has gone to far right.
The left has gone to far left.

Most folks are in the middle and those are the real losers here.

You're probably right. Pretty unreal.

You do not know what is crap and what is not. California has its issues, like every other state, and you are full of your own crap.