“Ukraine War Causalities Near Half a Million, U.S. Officials Say”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000,
U.S. Officials Say
Ukraine and Russia have lost a staggering number of troops as Kyiv’s counteroffensive
drags on. A lack of rapid medical care has added to the toll.
The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in
Ukraine began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said, a staggering toll as
Russia assaults its next-door neighbor and tries to seize more territory.
The officials cautioned that casualty figures remained difficult to estimate because Moscow
is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, and Kyiv does not disclose
official figures. But they said the slaughter intensified this year in eastern Ukraine and has
continued at a steady clip as a nearly three-month-old counteroffensive drags on.
Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number
includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The
Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000
killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
But Russians outnumber Ukrainians on the battlefield almost three to one, and Russia has
a larger population from which to replenish its ranks.
Ukraine has around 500,000 troops, including active-duty, reserve and paramilitary
troops, according to analysts. By contrast, Russia has almost triple that number, with
1,330,000 active-duty, reserve and paramilitary troops — most of the latter from the
Wagner Group.
The Biden administration’s last public estimate of casualties came in November, when Gen.
Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 100,000
troops on each side had been killed or wounded since the war began in February 2022. At
the time, officials said privately that the numbers were closer to 120,000 killed and
wounded.
But that number soared in the winter and spring, as the two countries turned the eastern
city of Bakhmut into a killing field. Hundreds of troops were killed or injured a day for
many weeks, U.S. officials said. The Russians took heavy casualties, but so too did the
Ukrainians as they tried to hold every inch of ground before losing the city in May.
The opening weeks of Kyiv’s counteroffensive this summer were particularly difficult for
Ukraine. In the early phase, Western-trained Ukrainian troops struggled to employ
“combined arms maneuvers” — a method of fighting in which infantry, armor and artillery
are used together in synchronized attacks.
Ukrainian troops initially tried to break through dug-in Russian lines with
mechanized combined arms formations. Equipped with advanced
American weapons, the Ukrainians nonetheless became bogged down in
dense Russian minefields under constant fire from artillery and
helicopter gunships.
In the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the
weaponry Ukraine sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to U.S. and
European officials. The losses included some of the formidable Western fighting machines
— tanks and armored personnel carriers — that the Ukrainians were counting on to beat
back the Russians.
More significantly, thousands of troops were killed or wounded, officials said.
A senior U.S. official acknowledged the high number of Ukrainian casualties but said
combined arms is “very, very hard.” He added that in recent days, Ukrainian troops have
begun to punch through initial rings of Russian defenses.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has shifted its battlefield tactics, returning to its old ways of
wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into
minefields under fire.
American officials are worried that Ukraine’s adjustments will race through precious
ammunition supplies, which could benefit President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and
disadvantage Ukraine in a war of attrition. But Ukrainian commanders decided the pivot
reduced casualties and preserved their frontline fighting force.
American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty averse, one reason it has
been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive. Almost any big push
against dug-in Russian defenders protected by minefields would result in huge numbers of
losses.
In just a year and a half, Ukraine’s military deaths have already surpassed the number of
American troops who died during the nearly two decades U.S. units were in Vietnam
(roughly 58,000) and about equal the number of Afghan security forces killed over the
entire war in Afghanistan, from 2001 to 2021 (around 69,000).
The number of dead and wounded reflects the amount of lethal munitions being expended
by both sides. Thousands of rounds of artillery are fired every week, tanks batter buildings,
land mines are everywhere and drones hover overhead picking off troops below. When
close combat does occur, it resembles the battles of World War I: brutal and often taking
place in trenches.
The numbers also point to a lack of rapid medical care on the frontline. Wounded soldiers
are increasingly hard to evacuate given how much artillery and gunfire bookend each
engagement. Unlike the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, where American forces strictly
adhered to evacuating casualties within an hour to a well-stocked medical facility, there is
no such capability in Ukraine.
Instead, injured troops are often thrown into any vehicle available or leave the front on
foot. In some cases, the wounded and dead are left on the battlefield, because medics are
unable to reach them. Hospitals and aid stations are often overwhelmed.
And across Ukraine, in big cities and rural villages, almost everyone knows a family that
has lost someone in the fighting. Dry flowers from funerals litter quiet roads, and
graveyards are filling up in every corner of the country.
The estimated figures for Ukraine and Russia are based on satellite imagery,
communication intercepts, social media and news media dispatches from reporters in the
country, as well as official reporting from both governments. Estimates vary, even within
the U.S. government.
According to Pentagon documents leaked in the spring, Russia had suffered 189,500 to
223,000 casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action. One document said that as of
February, Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with as many as 17,500
killed in action.
While several U.S. officials and one former senior Ukrainian official said
about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the conflict so far, other
American officials said the number could be lower.
The estimates vary so widely partly because of Ukraine’s reluctance to disclose its wartime
losses even to the American government. U.S. intelligence analysts have also spent much
more time focusing on Russian casualties than those of Ukraine, their ally.
Russia analysts say the loss of life is unlikely to deter Mr. Putin. He has no political
opposition at home and has framed the war as the kind of struggle the country faced
during World War II, when more than eight million Soviet troops died. U.S. officials have
said they believe that Mr. Putin can sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine,
although higher numbers could cut into his political support.
While Mr. Putin appears somewhat reluctant to initiate a widespread mobilization, he has
raised the upper age limit for men eligible to be conscripted into the army. And should
Russia decide to mobilize more people, its larger population could quickly overwhelm
Ukrainian reserves of manpower.
The troop deaths could have a greater impact for Ukraine in a war that is far from over.
And while combatants are dying in droves, the civilians caught between the guns have
died in the thousands while millions have been displaced.
“These are people,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former top Pentagon official for Ukraine who is
now the executive director of the McCain Institute.
“Ukraine is a democracy, so the loss of lives could have greater political
impact,” Dr. Farkas said. “But even in an autocracy, Vladimir Putin knows
that public sentiment can make a difference.”
https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116768/documents/HHRG-118-ZS00-20240130-SD002.pdfWith half million dead and a lopsided kill rate favoring Ukraine, I honestly thought Putin would go for a stale mate where he is now and try to claim the territory he was able to hold. But this summer he seems to have doubled down sending floods of conscripts, north Koreans, and Iranian weapons. I bet there are Iranian troops there too but don’t remember reading it. Without American led NATO influence I think NK and Iran would have joined in full force.
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