DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Liberation Day

Numbers don't lie. It's more expensive living under Trump that at any other time in history.

Honestly that's not a very smart thing to say or try to form an argument about - unless there is negative inflation, at any momement in time it will be the most expensive time in history.

Now - you can accurately argue that tariffs as introduced by Trump only create increased inflation and price increases - that's factual. But being specific with how you say something is important.

As of now.

I can't intelligently say whether we should be hopeful or scared that all of this has gone down within the first 100 days of his term.

I think we have to resist urges and be prudent in terms of looking at the big picture. If we keep chasing the daily headlines, which is easy to do, we get caught up in the game. So far, it looks like he's crushing it on border stuff, but things like cost savings, efficiency, spending, economy, defense readiness, markets, Ukraine, etc. are going pretty poorly in comparison to the campaign promises, but, to be fair, that's not to say it will be assumed that trend will continue. The admin is saying that this is all part of a bigger plan. I hope all of us - including his election supporters and detractors - can acknowledge the facts of that trend over time.

If he could get a law (at this point, any law) passed that helps address the border then you could make the argument that his term was worthwhile just on that topic alone.

The last time there was a proposal to pass a comprehensive immigration bill trump instructed congress not to pass it. I think people need to start understanding that he loves to play king and doesn't really care about laws.

A 5000 person-per-day turnstyle is still not a comprehensive border bill. You can say it til you're blue in the face, that will never make it true.

ICYTDTSI the border is closed now. Didn't need any laws other than the ones that already existed.

The laws that existed allowed the situation to happen, and corrected laws would prevent that beyond the current term. Given what was on the table from the last border bill and the results of the subsequent election, you'd think passing a strong border law would be easy given the majorities in House, Senate and even the Judicial branch.

So you don't believe that people are still allowed to come into this country to apply for asylum anymore? Because that's what you're twisting into calling "A 5000 person-per-day turnstyle". It's odd how republicans were even supporting this bill until King trump told them not to. They must have been in favor of open borders too huh?

So you think a president can "write immigration laws"? News flash. They can't. Ruling by decree doesn't change the laws.

Those 5000 people you claim created a turnstyle would have been allowed to apply for asylum at legal ports of entry and nothing more. 80% of asylum applications are denied. You may wish to adjust your numbers....

80% of asylum-seekers rejected, DHS official says

https://fox5sandiego.com/news/border-report/80-of-asylum-seekers-rejected-dhs-official-says/

Instead of having every discussion be about the border - maybe some more about the impact of tariffs? Increasing inflation, preventing Powell from reducing the interest rate... causing the entitled child in the WH to lose his temper and lash out. Again. It's funny how every country in the world has keeping inflation under control as a top priorty and yet ....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollyb...ell-after-fed-doesnt-cut-interest-rates/

Key Facts
In the Truth Social post just after 4:15 p.m. EST, Trump criticized “Jay Powell and the Fed” and claimed he will have to stop inflation by “unleashing American Energy production,” and “reigniting American Manufacturing.”

“If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, gender ideology, “green” energy, and fake climate change, Inflation would never have been a problem,” Trump said in the post.

Trump’s rant came hours after the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates at the same level set last month—at 4.25% to 4.5%—despite cutting rates several times last year, leaving borrowing costs relatively high after the Fed hiked rates in 2022 and 2023 in a bid to quell sky-high inflation.

In its announcement, the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee cited unemployment stabilizing and inflation staying “somewhat elevated,” both things that point to fewer interest rate cuts, and an “uncertain” economic outlook.

Trump previously said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately,” and has often pushed for lower rates, which can boost economic growth, but at the risk of sparking inflation.

The comments were the latest by Trump about Powell amid a rocky history between the pair, the latter of whom was appointed by Trump in 2017 but has been regularly criticized by him since.

Just clicking:

What exactly were we liberated from?

Powell has been a pretty steady figure. It's amazing how well some of our institutions perform when they are not overlorded by the politicians as much.

Interesting comment by POTUS on "fake climate change."

I'm also not sure how we can reignite American manufacturing quickly enough and/or how that would theoretically stop inflation.

One thing I'm curious about is connecting the dots from the tariffs to inflation to the interest rates remaining high. It seems logical that tariffs would increase inflation because it would naturally cause upward pressure on prices via both the CPI and PPI. Do we have any hard math evidence looking at inflationary trends since the tariffs were implemented or is it still too early?

Having friends around the world.

You are correct - as exemplified by the EU Commisioners speech yesterday with specific references to Trump and his administration. And a comment that 'The West' is dead. As in - China, Russia and the West. It is now - China, Russia, USA and Europe.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...s-von-der-leyen-says-amid-trump-tensions

"Europe is still a peace project. We don't have bros or oligarchs making the rules. We don't invade our neighbours, and we don't punish them," Ursula von der Leyen said in a wide-ranging interview with the Zeit newspaper.
"The West as we knew it no longer exists," Ursula von der Leyen has declared

I am sure Trumptard isolationists will think this is great.

Almost right on cue with my last post. Interesting line about "STOP PLAYING POLITICS" in reference to a guy he appointed...to a position that is agnostic of politics.

Trump: 'Powell's termination cannot come fast enough'

Jennifer SchonbergerSenior Reporter
Thu, April 17, 2025 at 7:34 AM EDT3 min read

Powell warns of higher inflation due to tariffs.

President Trump turned up the pressure on Federal Reserve Jerome Powell again on Thursday, saying in a social media post that he should lower interest rates and that Powell’s "termination cannot come fast enough!"

The president's comments posted to Truth Social came one day after Powell said the central bank will "wait for greater clarity" before considering any rate adjustments as he warned Trump’s tariffs would likely generate "higher inflation and slower growth."

He predicted those twin developments could create a major dilemma for the Fed — which is obligated to keep prices stable while also maximizing employment.

"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension," Powell said.

Trump certainly made Powell's job more difficult this month as he unveiled the steepest tariffs in more than 100 years, before pausing some of them for 90 days.

The tariffs roiled markets and stoked new uncertainties about the direction of the US economy, putting pressure on the Fed to consider a rate cut as a way of preventing a downturn.

Trump on Thursday said Powell is "always TOO LATE AND WRONG" and "should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago," referencing recent monetary policy easing on the part of the European Central Bank.

"He should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

Powell’s time as chair expires in May 2026, and he has said he intends to serve out the entirety of his term. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week he expects to start interviewing Fed chair candidates in the fall of this year.

The Fed chair on Wednesday again reiterated the independence of his institution and his own job, saying it’s "a matter of law," and pledged not to act in response to any political pressure.

He did discuss a case now before the Supreme Court that is testing Trump’s ability to remove board members at other independent agencies in Washington, D.C., a case that some Fed watchers worry could threaten Powell if the administration wins.

But Powell said, "I don’t think that’s a case that will apply to the Fed." Nonetheless, the central bank is "monitoring it carefully."

Trump started his second term in office by softening his criticisms of the Fed's monetary policy decisions and even made it clear he didn't intend to fire Powell, someone he criticized repeatedly during his first term.

Bessent and other Trump aides repeatedly stressed that the president was not focused on the Fed and was instead trying to bring down 10-year Treasury yields.

But it's clear the White House does want a closer relationship with the central bank — and other independent agencies — after issuing an executive order in February that gave Trump's appointees more power over such agencies.

The order makes clear that monetary policy — the direction of interest rates — will remain under the Fed's full control but that the Fed's oversight of the country's biggest banks will now have a closer connection to the policies and priorities of the White House.

And then Trump began ramping up his pressure on Powell following the president's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcement.

On April 4 he said on social media that "This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly."

"CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"

On April 7 he added in another post "that "the slow moving Fed should cut rates!"

Powell thus far is showing no signs of blinking.

"I fully intend to serve all of my term," he said on April 4.

Well, at least the tariffs are lowering interest rates somewhere:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...b03544e69846b0ebb51a95a7c6cc5d&ei=30

The European Central Bank lowered interest rates, as expected Thursday. Europe is being squeezed as trade tension between the U.S. and China, worsen.

The ECB reduced its benchmark lending rate by a quarter-point, the seventh cut since it started lowering borrowing costs in June.

The reduction lowered the deposit rate to 2.25% from 2.50%. That’s down from 4% when the bank began cutting. Investors are likely to focus on what the central bank says about how much more it believes it needs to cut to support the euro zone economy in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The ECB is in more of a hurry to cut rates than the Federal Reserve because the risk of slower growth in Europe appears to be greater than the danger of a boost to inflation. European inflation ticked down to an annual rate of 2.2% in March, approaching the ECB’s 2% target.

“The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop as staff expected, with both headline and core inflation declining in March,” the ECB said in a statement. ” The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.”

Trump noted the swift pace of the ECB’s cuts in a social-media post on Thursday ahead of the latest decision. He also accused Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of acting too slowly.

“’Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete mess!…Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Although Trump has paused the bulk of his tariff agenda for 90 days, including a 20% levy on goods from the European Union, ECB policymakers are assessing how the threatened duties will affect growth and inflation.

“The ongoing trade tensions as well as a high level of uncertainty could force the ECB to cut interest rates further than it would currently like to admit,” said Carsten Brzeski, ING’s global head of macro. “At the same time, the strengthening of the euro exchange rate, not only vis-à-vis the dollar, will insert more disinflationary pressure on the euro zone. Pre-empting some of this pressure could push the ECB to at least verbally open the door to accommodative monetary policy.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference after the decision in Frankfurt.

just to remind everyone, especially MAGA: Trump appointed Powell in his first term.

None of that has anything to do with the fed or Powell's job at the fed. This is what it sounds like when people put an unhinged idiot in charge.


Further indications he thinks he is a king, not a president.

Jon Stewart used a phrase today that I think resonated with my perception: "Executive dominance" I think captures the current governmental construct.

I don't agree with Stewart about everything but it's hard to deny just how smart he is. I think something that has not only surprised me but I am pleased about is just how much Bill Maher has moved to the center.

Absoltuely nothing wrong witht he center.

Sadly for some people the center either no longer exists or is now some evil entity. The center is either called a lefty or slammed for not being woke enough. In actually when neither extreme agrees with me that's my happy place.

Check out his weekly podcast if you ever get the chance. He doesn't just talk to people of like minds. He's had Chris Christie on there somewhat recently, libertarians, liberals who are critical of the Democratic party (Ezra Klein), and some others. It's very thought-provoking. I listen to it on my way to/from work now that I have to go in. Silver lining.

I'll give that a try. I don't know how it has impacted his ratings but he's also followed that pattern on Real Time as well.

Jon Stewart's "The Weekly Show" is right up your alley. Long format interviews, interesting guests, lively exchanges are the norm.

I've been listening since the first episode. He's incredibly well-informed and super smart. You won't be disappointed.


.02

Then that was Dumb...LOL

yea, but sadly expected. Same thing happened in his first term, countries were just more tolerant of the BS and rode it out. You should check out his latest oval office conference. That's a face and posture of a man who wasn't expecting China to push back this way.

More than that... isn't Powell just a figurehead? "The Fed" in terms of setting policy is a board on which Powell sits and votes.

Why China curbing rare earth exports is a blow to the US

As the trade war between China and the US escalates, attention has been focused on the increasingly high levels of tit-for-tat tariffs the two countries are imposing on one another.

But slapping reciprocal tariffs on Washington is not the only way Beijing has been able to retaliate.

China has now also imposed export controls on a range of critical rare earth minerals and magnets, dealing a major blow to the US.

The move has laid bare how reliant America is on these minerals.

This week, Trump ordered the commerce department to come up with ways to boost US production of critical minerals and cut reliance on imports - an attempt by Washington to reclaim this critical industry. But why exactly are rare earths so important and how could they shake up the trade war?

What are rare earths and what are they used for?

"Rare earths" are a group of 17 chemically similar elements that are crucial to the manufacture of many high-tech products.

Most are abundant in nature, but they are known as "rare" because it is very unusual to find them in a pure form, and they are very hazardous to extract.

Although you may not be familiar with the names of these rare earths - like Neodymium, Yttrium and Europium - you will be very familiar with the products that they are used in.

For instance, Neodymium is used to make the powerful magnets used in loudspeakers, computer hard drives, EV motors and jet engines that enable them to be smaller and more efficient.

Yttrium and Europium are used to manufacture television and computer screens because of the way they display colours.

"Everything you can switch on or off likely runs on rare earths," explains Thomas Kruemmer, Director of Ginger International Trade and Investment.

Rare earths are also critical to the production of medical technology like laser surgery and MRI scans, as well as key defence technologies.

What does China control?

China has a near monopoly on extracting rare earths as well as on refining them - which is the process of separating them from other minerals.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China accounts for about 61% of rare earth production and 92% of their processing.

That means it currently dominates the rare earths supply chain and has the capacity to decide which companies can and cannot receive supplies of rare earths.

Both the extraction and processing of these rare earths are costly and polluting.

All rare earth resources also contain radioactive elements, which is why many other countries, including those in the EU, are reluctant to produce them.

"Radioactive waste from production absolutely requires safe, compliant, permanent disposal. Currently all disposal facilities in EU are temporary," says Mr Kruemmer.

But China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain didn't take place overnight - but rather, is the result of decades of strategic government policies and investment.

In a visit to Inner Mongolia in 1992, the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, who oversaw China's economic reform, famously said: "The Middle East has oil and China has rare earths".

"Beginning in the late 20th century, China prioritised the development of its rare earth mining and processing capabilities, often at lower environmental standards and labour costs compared to other nations," said Gavin Harper, a critical materials research fellow at the University of Birmingham.

"This allowed them to undercut global competitors and build a near-monopoly across the entire value chain, from mining and refining to the manufacturing of finished products like magnets."

How has China restricted exports of these minerals?

In response to tariffs imposed by Washington, China earlier this month began ordering restrictions on the exports of seven rare earth minerals - most of which are known as "heavy" rare earths, which are crucial to the defence sector.

These are less common and are harder to process than "light" rare earths, which also makes them more valuable.

From 4 April, all companies now have to get special export licenses in order to send rare earths and magnets out of the country.

That is because as a signatory to the international treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, China has the ability to control the trade of "dual use products".

According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), this leaves the US particularly vulnerable as there is no capacity outside China to process heavy rare earths.

How could this impact the US?

A US Geological report notes that between 2020 and 2023, the US relied on China for 70% of its imports of all rare earth compounds and metals.

This means that the new restrictions have the ability to hit the US hard.

Heavy rare earths are used in many military fields such as missiles, radar, and permanent magnets.

A CSIS report notes that defence technologies including F-35 jets, Tomahawk missiles and Predator unmanned aerial vehicles all depend on these minerals.

It adds that this comes as China "expands its munitions production and acquires advanced weapons systems and equipment at a pace five to six times faster than the United States".

"The impact on the US defence industry will be substantial," said Mr Kroemmer.

And it's not only in the field of defence.

US manufacturing, which Trump has said he hopes to revive through the imposition of his tariffs, stand to be severely impacted.

"Manufacturers, particularly in defence and high-tech, face potential shortages and production delays due to halted shipments and limited inventories," said Dr Harper.

"Prices for critical rare earth materials are expected to surge, increasing the immediate costs of components used in a wide range of products, from smartphones to military hardware," he says, adding that this could result in potential production slowdowns for affected US companies.

If such a shortage from China persists in the long-run, the US could potentially begin diversifying its supply chains and scaling up its domestic and processing capabilities, though this would still require "substantial and sustained investment, technological advancements and potentially higher overall costs compared to the previous dependence on China".

And it's clear this is something already on Trump's mind. This week, he ordered an investigation into the national security risks posed by the US' reliance on such critical minerals.

"President Trump recognises that an overreliance on foreign critical minerals and their derivative products could jeopardise US defence capabilities, infrastructure development, and technological innovation," said the order.

"Critical minerals, including rare earth elements, are essential for national security and economic resilience."

Can't the US produce its own rare earths?

The US has one operational rare earths mine, but it does not have the capacity to separate heavy rare earths and has to send its ore to China for processing.

There used to be US companies that manufactured rare earth magnets - until the 1980s, the US was in fact the largest producer of rare earths.

But these companies exited the market as China began to dominate in terms of scale and cost.

This is largely believed to be part of why US president Donald Trump is so keen to sign a minerals deal with Ukraine - it wants to reduce dependency on China.

Another place Trump has had his eye on is Greenland - which is endowed with the eighth largest reserves of rare earth elements.

Trump has repeatedly showed interest in taking control of the autonomous Danish dependent territory and has refused to rule out economic or military force to take control of it.

These might have been places that the US could have sourced some of its rare earth exports from, but the adversarial tone Trump has struck with them means the US could be left with very few alternative suppliers.

"The challenge the U.S. faces is two-fold, on the one hand it has alienated China who provides the monopoly supply of rare earths, and on the other hand it is also antagonising many nations that have previously been friendly collaborators through tariffs and other hostile actions," said Dr Harper.

"Whether they will still prioritise collaboration with America remains to be seen in the turbulent policy environment of this new administration."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1drqeev36qo

Yea but they needed a scapegoat quickly.

jc


im bout to liberate myself from any empathy I had left for people running the agriculture industry. what yall taking? over/under $75 billion bailout for farmers.

Govt liberating itself from what little common sense it had.

Liberation day is being put on hold..... again.

Trump blinks after he finds out China and Powell aren't about to kiss his azz..........................

The Dow soars 1,000 points as Trump blinks on Powell and stocks roar back

U.S. stocks opened sharply higher Wednesday, buoyed in part by President Donald Trump’s retreat on the prospect of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his indication that tariffs on China “will come down substantially but it won’t be zero.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,052 points, or 2.7% shortly after the open. The S&P 500 added 3.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged an eye-watering 4%.

Boeing and Tesla lead early gains

Boeing stock jumped 5% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter losses and reaffirming its full-year forecast, despite continuing trade tensions with China.

Tesla stock also climbed 5% following CEO Elon Musk’s comments that he would reduce his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to focus more on his company, even as the automaker reported a 71% drop in quarterly profits.

Markets rally as Trump backs off Powell threats

After days of escalating attacks, including calling Powell a “major loser” and saying his “termination cannot come fast enough,” Trump reversed course late Tuesday, telling reporters he has “no intention” of ousting the Fed chief. The remarks came after a series of dramatic market moves made clear that the price of firing Powell — or even threatening to — is measured in trillions.

Eyes on Bessent, Beige Book, and big earnings

Investors will be closely watching Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s scheduled speech Wednesday for further insights into the Trump administration’s trade policies and their potential impact. Investors will also be sifting through Tesla’s (TSLA) results and earnings from a packed slate of companies, including Boeing (BA) and AT&T (T).

Flash PMI data — early readings on the health of both the services and manufacturing sectors — land Wednesday morning, followed by the Fed’s Beige Book in the afternoon. Less about hard numbers and more about business vibes, the Beige Book distills anecdotal feedback on wages, hiring, and consumer demand. It’s a mood board for monetary policy.

After the close, IBM (IBM) rounds out the day with earnings that will shed light on its enterprise services and cloud business.

Philip Morris smokes estimates

Philip Morris International (PM) reported first-quarter results that exceeded expectations, with adjusted diluted earnings per share growing 12.7% to $1.69. Smoke-free products now account for a significant and rapidly increasing portion of revenue and profits — over 40% of both the top and bottom line.

Shares gained nearly 5% heading into the open.

Markets climb on trade optimism

Wednesday’s jump into the green followed Tuesday’s broad and sharp rally. The Dow surged 1,017 points Tuesday, or 2.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5% and the Nasdaq climbed 2.7%. It was a dramatic rebound from last week’s selloff. The spark: Bessent’s reported comments that the U.S.-China tariff standoff is “unsustainable” and likely headed toward de-escalation.

That was all markets needed to hear — for now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trum...dD92RvMNKijL1r_ImIkaloRlYoaBwj0uaYko9itO

Yet it’s still the most expensive time in history to live or visit in the US.

While Goper’s are still taking a victory lap. MAGA pfft.

China says US should stop threats if it wants tariffs agreement

STORY: :: China says the U.S. should stop threats and coercion if it wants an agreement on tariffs

:: April 23, 2025

:: Beijing, China

:: Guo Jiakun, Foreign Ministry spokesperson

"If the U.S. truly wants to resolve issues through dialog and negotiation, it should stop making threats and resorting to coercion, and engage with China on the basis of equality, mutual respect, and mutual benefit. Saying they want to reach an agreement with China while continuing to apply maximum pressure is not the right way to deal with China, and it will not work."

The U.S. should stop making threats and resorting to coercion if it wants to make a deal, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday (April 23) when asked about U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about potentially lower tariffs on China.

Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun accused the U.S. of continuing to exert "extreme pressure" even as it tried to reach an agreement, saying that was not the right way to deal with China.

When asked about Chinese Premier Li Qiang's letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Guo said China has maintained communication with all parties on the issue of tariffs.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-us-stop-threats-110439397.html

Another gangster move.

And there is is!

You would think that Dems would stand up and lay that out for folks.. Haven't heard on do that as of yet.

If any dem stood up and did that trump would sic his MAGA bunch onto them pronto. And there is no dem on Capitol Hill right now with the nads to do so.

Sometimes when something doesn't make sense to you it's worth looking a little deeper into it to see if what you thought adds up. I haven't dug too deeply into it as I'm pretty sure it applies in many cases. But the one that came to mind first was the tariff rate trump claimed he would impose on Vietnam.......................

Vietnam tariff rates on goods imported from the U.S. goods averages 9.4%.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...s-to-zero-will-that-be-enough-for-trump/

Trump proposed a 46% tariff rate on Vietnam in what he called "reciprocal tariffs". Reciprocal means done in return or equal.

So this obviously isn't reciprocal in terms of evening the tariff rates. What we have learned since he made that deceptive statement is that included in that formula was the trade deficit factor. But let's take a quick look at how much sense that makes. Let's see if that's in any way a practical or even reachable goal to base tariffs on.

Vietnam has a population of just over 100 million people. The U.S. has a population of well over 300 million people.

The average monthly salary in Vietnam is about 697 dollars America...................

The average salary in Vietnam is 17.3 million Vietnamese Dong (VND) per month or 697 USD/month (according to the exchange rates in August 2024) — which is significantly lower than the average salaries in countries like the USA or UK.

https://www.timedoctor.com/blog/average-salary-in-vietnam/

Can anyone explain to me how a nation with one third the population as the U.S. making a fraction of the income as the average American worker is realistically expected to import as many goods from us as we do from them?

This has nothing to do with reciprocal tariffs. It's nothing more than some strong arm tactic that doesn't even make any sense.

Can someone help me make this make sense?