DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Does the road to the AFC North crown run through Cleveland in '08?

Very brash statement for the only team who has not won the AFC North crown once yet, but hear me out on this.

We seem like the only team with upward momentum going into this offseason.

The Ravens, objectively speaking, look like they need to blow up and start over like they did in 2002.

The Steelers...some of their fans I talk to already wanna throw Tomlin to the wolves because they think they see what the future holds with him at the helm and it ain't nearly as pretty as it once seemed when they went on a tear the first half of this year (but if you ask me, that was the ghost of Bill Cowher coaching them the first half). History suggests the Steelers always bounce back and fix what was a deficiency the year before and turn it into a strength...but Cowher ain't running the show there anymore. Tomlin, Arians and Zierlein are and we know how much damage the last two did for our team...we already saw Zierlein's lack of ability when he took gold and turned it to coal with the Steelers line. Without Faneca, will this continue?

The Bengals? They're the one team that scares me because offensively they can bounce back. Palmer is the real deal and if they could just get a couple playmakers on D that would help them immensely...but, their leader (Palmer) thinks that Marvin Lewis can't coach them further, has Marvin lost the locker room?

Then there's us...while our past couple seasons before this did not have good records, we've always had momentum going into the offseason cuz we've had cap room and we've been aggressive. Well, we finally had a good season, and we still have cap room and I expect us to be aggressive fixing the defense and putting the finishing touches on our offense.

This isn't even the Browns fan in me, objectively speaking we have all the momentum going into this offseason, and I can promise we're not gonna cut a bunch of core pieces to our team and sign the likes of Barry Gardner (aka the '02-03 offseason where we had to get under the cap).

I know the phrase "Until we knock off the champ, the road still runs through there." But let's throw history out the window and look at this from a year to year basis...we'll know more after FA and the draft but right now it REALLY looks like the road to the AFC North runs through the Dawg Pound.

Valid projections into next year, but as we found out by some of our "tough" opponents from this year, that doesn't always translate.

I think the argument could be made that with all of our division's teams playing half their schedule against playoff teams, the AFCN won't be full of heavy-win records next year. Someone else said it, but based on the Cowboys, Giants, Colts, and Jaguars all playing our division next year, this division could be won with a 9 win season. One thing that favors the Browns to get 9 wins as opposed to the Steelers is the two other AFC conference games. Steelers will be going against the Chargers and Pats. Browns will have to face the Broncos and Bills. These two games could be the turning point in the battle for the AFCN crown.

I think even if the Steelers beat us twice again next year as long as we can beat the same shared opponents they beat, our games against Denver and Buffalo will make or break our chances to win. We need to beat Denver when Pittsburgh falls to San Diego. We need to beat Buffalo when Pittsburgh falls to New England.

When was the last time the Browns won their division?

Ravens are never down for long and if Rex Ryan is their next HC they will be a force.

Pitt won the division and willie parker will be back. Plus they will have another year under Bruce Ariens and Mike Tomlin. They are the team to beat.

Browns still have a lot of questions. Who will be the starting QB? Who will be the starting RB? Can they fix D? Is Romeo going to the Phins?

Bengals well they are in the proces of rebuilding through destruction.

Rex Ryan or not, the Ravens still need an upgrade to over half of their OLine, and even THAT would only make them a mediocre offense.

As for the Steelers, once Willie Parker gets back he'll have a tough time running behind someone who is not Alan Faneca.

As for the Browns, their QB is Anderson, and if someone offers a good trade for im, then their QB is Brady Quinn. Their RB is Jamal Lewis, who I'm sure will re-sign. And Romeo won't be in Miami in 2008. It's not even that big of a controversy. Just because Parcells said he was top of the list for HC doesn't mean he would get him. With Crennel on the hot seat, it's not far fetched to think Tuna wants him only if he's let go. And Cleveland won't do that.

No one's saying that Pittsburgh will be a crappy team next year. Just saying they ended the year atop the division, but with the same record as Cleveland, and with Cleveland on the rise (i.e. having their OLine and receivers locked up in contracts) and Pittsburgh on the decline (i.e. free agent loss in Faneca) it's not hard to imagine the Browns could pull out a division win.

Quote:

---

Does the road to the AFC North crown run through Cleveland in '08?

---

Nope.....We proved we can compete...We proved were a force.....Until we win the North on the field, what ever is written or said in the media means nothing....

I think the Ravens are pretty much done as far as AFCN goes for the next few seasons...if they are smart they will completely blow up and start over. Chance of AFCN Crown: 500:1

The Steelers are losing a HUGE part of their line in Fanaca who will not, under any circumstances, return to the Stillers. They are quickly getting old on both their lines and at some point they will need some new talent ot flourish. That being said...when was the last time we beat them? The road to the AFC North Crown ALWAYS goes through the Steelers...until we can show we can beat them.
Chances of AFCN Crown: 25:1

Bengirls are a team that can go either direction. If they do trade Chad Johnson and Housh then I'm almost positive they will get better, espically if they can help their D. If they keep Chad and Housh then they will sink lower...and lower...and lower. With the team and talent they have right now...i think the most games they can win is 10...with who they play next year...they'll be lucky to break 8-8
Chances of AFCN Crown: 100:1

Now this is where it gets tricky...are we really as good of a team as we've shown? Can we build a better D? Is DA going to repeat the year he had last year? We have the talent and stability to make a run for it...but really it depends on if we can beat the steelers and a few OOC teams. NFC East gives me no worries except for Dallas, who can beat us. AFC South...ugh, Colts and Jags are not going to be fun to play. As another poster said, our chances may come down to the Broncos and Bills and if we can beat them. But under NO circumstances can we win the AFCN Crown without beating the Stillers.
Chances of AFCN Crown: 10:1

I heard Grossi talking about the same thing as you are saying in your post Ammo, in his season recap.

Mark this down because I rarely agree with anything Grossi says but sense he jumped off his own bandwagon and onto the Browns bandwagon, I find him more tolerable.

He said that he thought that the Browns had the most promise for the future , and while it could very well come to pass that the Browns are the team to beat in the AFCN, at this juncture that honor if you will still belongs to the Steelers. (sigh)

I think or I hope we can get the defense fixed once and for all. I trust PS and RAC to shore this area up, and so I won't state or venture a guess as to what they will do. I trust them, and for once in forever, I don't feel the need to worry about the direction of the Browns. I get to assume my roll as a fan, and just support and encourage the trusted ones( PS and RAC).

I think everything will take care of itself at the end of the day, and that includes the Browns assuming their rightful place at the very top of the NFL elite franchises. So while I from time to time may express my concern for the direction we are headed, I am quite comfortable and confident from my rightful place on the couch..LOL

Brown to the Bone

I'm waiting to see how the Steelers draft this year. If they don't draft a GOOD guard within the first two rounds, then I'm sure they'll be in a lot more of a mess than they were this year on offense. Hell, they might need more than a guard. The problem, IMHO, is that they're making their drive blockers drop back into pass coverage a lot more than they were used to in seasons past.

As for now, the road to the AFC North Crown runs through them. If we beat them in the first game, then it runs through us.

JMHO.

They need offensive and defensive line help.

I can tell you one thing, they won't draft the 'sexy' picks.

See my sig

clearly a ref didn't like my sig?

Why? It's still there.

Quote:

---

Very brash statement for the only team who has not won the AFC North crown once yet, but hear me out on this.

---

Ammo...this is "your" statement, correct?

Ammo, your the person making the "Very brash statement", correct?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I hope the Browns are not going into the off season with the attitude that we are the team on the top, because we are not.

The Steelers won the division and Cinci put it on us to knock us out of the playoffs. How anyone could think the road to the AFC North runs through Cleveland, is beyond me.

But you are allowed to dream... ...WOOF...mac

Until we beat the Stoolers They OWN it.

Isnt this Dick Lebeaus last season as D-cooridinator?

that reminds me of when they first hired tomlin, i think he wanted to change more to a tampa 2 defense but held off....it could be possible that he eventually starts to draft guys to make that change...

Sorry Ammo, but in the grand scheme of things, I think the much bigger overall question would be................ "Can the winners of the AFC North be Super Bowl Contenders?"

You see, as much as you've set up a question, the answer to your question has so many variables, that there is no pat answer. Nobody can possibly know at this juncture.

QB; Firstly, if we go with Quinn, will he pan out? How much maturity and production will we see from him as a rookie? If we stay with DA? Will the same problems we saw from OSU untill today "magicly work themselves out"? Or is he close to "reaching his ceiling"?

No matter the choice, there is a "risk factor" involved with NO "pat answer". Can we win the AFC North with "mediocre QB play in 08"? Yes, it's quite possible. We almost did it with a QB who ranked 28th in accuracy this year, right?



Problem being, we won't win a "Super Bowl" with a mediocre QB unless you have a "top rated D". Which we will need a couple of years minimum to achieve IMO.

RB; Sure JL seems like a "no brainer". But how long of a contract is he looking for and what kind of numbers? A couple of things I have learned are that Savage ALWAYS keeps his eyes on the future and doesn't overspend. ( No, I don't feel he overspendt on JT or Steinbach )

DL; How much help and upgrade will we get here? The three four D has become far more popular with an eye on speed overall in the NFL. With no first round pick and our second rounder coming late in the round, how much "long term draft investment" can we make in this department? I'm quite sure we can make upgrades and maybe even ONE "major one" in the FA market. But how many teams are you expecting to just "cast off DL studs"???

OLB; We need someone with speed and power to line up opposite Wimbley. I can see DQ,CT and Wimbley being great keepers and Peek is pretty good depth. But we need that great threat opposite Wimbley. Will our FO consider that a priority as well?

I could gop on and on. What about our "second post WR"? JJ is a great posession WR, and even at that, he's only talking about playing one more year. But we have no "legitimate deep threat" at the other post opposite Braylon. So where is that on their priority list? No second post WR and your posession WR will be gone after next year?



Is the Sowells experiment over? Will we be looking at round three or four for yet another G in this draft for the future?

Point being, if the REST of the AFC North has digressed so much, how much does that say for "our progress"? Winning the AFC North ( in its current state ) is something we ALMOST DID with a patchwork D, an innaccurate QB, only one legitrimate post WR and an OL where our right side was playing out of their "normal positions" and our LT was a rookie. (although a damned GOOD rookie )



So as you can see, we "can win the AFC North" and still NOT be a "good team" in the grand scheme of things.

So I will answer your question just about as open ended as it is asked................



I see two paths that the FO might tend to follow. Most of us see our D as our "biggest weakness". And Phil seems to be building this thing in "departments". DQ and Wimbley. JT, Steinbach and Quinn. So a very natural progression, if the oppertunity arises, will be the DL/OLB. But with no first round pick, will the FA market and a late second round pick, make that a possibility this off season?

Secondly, he may feel with the limitations we have in the draft, that he once again look at the "bargains in the draft and the FA market" at "ALL positions of need"? Possibly for now AND "the immediate future". That second post WR? A RB who "fell through the cracks" sitting there in round 2?

Either way he goes with this, I can see us as possibly winning the AFC North. But also either way he goes, I don't see us "measuring up" to the likes of the Pats, or Indy, or hell, even the Cowboys in 08. So in the big picture, what will we have gained?

I think Phil knows this.


I think our most likely way to get ahead this year, is to find a cash strapped team in dire need of a QB. It may become quite necassary for such a team to "unload" a big time contract just to sign a long term QB. In such a scenario, you might get a DL/OLB stud and a second rounder. I think that is the most likely trade scenario for DA IF they "decide to trade him".

So from my perspective, we'll pick up a couple of key FA's and Phil will do everything "within his power that is within reason" to get us back into the first round. I don't think he will do anything it takes to "win the AFC North in 07". But instead, he understands that "We are still building with quite a ways to go yet" before we are "elite".

I just hope the fan base is as honest and objective in that department.................

JMHO

It goes through every team in this conference... any given year, any team can dominate... And that is why you MUST get those division wins...

Had the Browns beat the Steelers just ONCE of the two games, the Browns would have been in the playoffs...

If we continue along the same path and make the next leap in productivity,, sure, we could be a contender and yeah, we look like the up and comer going into this off season for sure..

This comment you made:

Quote:

---

but, their leader (Palmer) thinks that Marvin Lewis can't coach them further, has Marvin lost the locker room?

---

I'm not sure where you got that. I'm not sure I saw or heard anything where Palmer is calling out his coach. And Palmer doesn 't seem to be that Lame or stupid to take his frustrations out in public. He strikes me as the kinda guy that would sit across the table from you and tell you what's on his mind..

So I'm betting that if he did say that, he said it behind closed doors.. which makes me wonder how you could say it.

And that changed the entire idea of the Bengals.. Let's face it, with TJ, Chad, Palmer and Rudy, they have the talent with a few minor changes and a recommitment to make a run.. Offensively.

From a D standpoint, if they would quit drafting criminals, they'd get a lot further.. I don't know if they can fix that in one off season.. if they can, then you can't discount them at all... Remember, they stoppped us from scoring in the last game and we seem to have a decent offense.. they aren't all bad either ya know.

As for the Ravens,, yeah, it's looking more and more like a rebuild there.

The Steelers limped into the AFC north Champion position. But that doesn't make them a shoe in for a collapse next season.

Personally, I don't want to win the division because our AFC North opponents aren't worthy, I want to win because they are tough as hell and we were just flat out better.

What you are describing is that we win because our opponents have fallen apart.. And I don't think you can count on that happening..

Yes I agree if we win the division it should be because were the best team.

IMHO- When your QB throws four INT's and you only lose by six points?

THEY didn't "beat you".

Quote:

---

He doesn't come out and bash Lewis. But its there.

---

Only if you read between the lines... and unfortunatly, that's a pretty grey area.

What he's saying (this is me reading between the lines) is that his team lacks dicipline.. That winning teams have that.

Perhaps he's saying that Chad Johnson needs to go because he's undisiplined.. not the HC.

The way that Ammo wrote his comment, it indicated that Palmer basically came out in favor of a coaching change.. based on this article, it's not even close.

No. To be the best you have to beat the best. Until we beat Pittsburgh, the road tot he AFC North crown runs through Pittsburgh. JMO.

Hard to say. A couple of things have to happen.

1] We must improve defensively.
A] We need a block eating NT.
B] We need to get more pressure on the QB. Not just sacks, but force hurries.
C] We need better play from our FS position, which will not only help our pass defense, but our run defense.


2] We need another good year from our QB. That is a concern because of:
A] DA might have been a one-hit wonder.
B] BQ might not come close to accomplishing what DA did.

There are no guarantees on that either will happen. That is why I am inclined to keep both QBs and only trade one of them after the other has thoroughly established himself.

Other than that......I think we are fine. And no, the schedule does not concern me that much. I should add this though.........we were relatively injury free this year. If we got hit big time by injuries....that could be a big factor. We still aren't real deep.

Quote:

---

Sorry Ammo, but in the grand scheme of things, I think the much bigger overall question would be................ "Can the winners of the AFC North be Super Bowl Contenders?"

---

Solid post.

Quote:

---

That is why I am inclined to keep both QBs and only trade one of them after the other has thoroughly established himself.

---

Thanks...I really don't remembering that the keys to the car were to be given to BQ in the 2nd year. DA turned out to be a pleasant surprise for this team and I agree that there is no need to let one or the other QB go after this season. How many teams have needed 2 decent QBs to fill the season. Where would Indy be w/ Sorgi? Keep them both we do not have alot of money tied up in either of them.

No.

We could very well have a QB playing his first season as the starter. He is bound to have ups and downs.

If DA is back, how will he handle the tougher defenses? He struggled against them this year and need to improve alot on his touch passes to be successful again.

Will JL be back? If not, who will carry the load?

On paper, the schedule is brutal. How it pans out is anyones guess, but it could be very tough.

JJ started dropping balls at the end of the season. He needs to be upgraded. Will we?

Will the D improve? It hasn't in three years.

Alot of question marks going into next season.

I think the AFC North still goes through Pukesburgh.

Pit Kudos to you brother.

I often see posts that get long but there are soooooooooooo many things that play into the choices that are made, there are in fact no pat answers. Choose a path to follow, and it changes a lot of other things as well.

Just a for instance. We decide that JL wants more then we are willing to pay, and so JL decides to move on. That changes the entire off season plans of the Browns. Now they have to look for a RB, where they may not of planned to do so.

The long and the short of it, is that there are so many variables that it's really impossible to know which direction the wind will blow a team in. We spend a great deal of time trying to figure it out, but there truly are no PAT answers. One problem leads to another, and the solution to one problem can lead you to other problems, the end never comes.

I agree tho Pit you have to consider EVERYTHING and not leave anything out, and there are no short answers when you take everything into account, and tie everything together..


Brown to the Bone

until the browns can prove they can beat the steelers -the road to the AFC North goes thru Pitt. But i do think the steelers have alot of offseason work to do, their o-line is a mess (or will be once Faneca leaves)

The AFN runs throught the team that wins it , which usually is Pukesburgh..my remark is UNTIL the Browns put away the Squealers they won't win the division since we haven't beaten them in so long..
Think about it.
Both teams had identical records..but we lost twice to them..

Quote:

---

I bet they draft O-line and do well at a fraction of the cost for retaining Faneca

---

While I'll admit that the Steelers in the past have drafted well when the Oline is considered, but not lately. Max Starks? He is horrible. They really haven't had a good Olineman drafted for a few years. Marvel Smith is the best next to Faneca, but he's not a great player, servicible at best. They are hurting at RT with Starks and Colon. With Faneca gone, they are in trouble in the middle. Mahan is not a good lineman, and the Steelers are finding that out now. Without Faneca at his side they will be in trouble.

Just because we lucked out and found a rookie Olineman who stepped right in at a high level, don't think it will happen every year. The Steelers have a good team, but their offense is going to struggle without Faneca. Ben is a good QB, although I feel he is a little overrated, but you can gaurantee that he will be missing Faneca next year. Their line, or the anchors on their line, have played together for a while until this year. Unless they resign Faneca and get another stud tackle for the right side, IMO their reign as a top Oline is coming to an end.

Drafting well at a fraction of the cost, will not replace Faneca, you can take that to the bank. Gaurds are the new big money guys on the Oline now, and teams with good ones are not going to let them go.

Might I add that Kendall Simmons is HORRIBLE as well.

Quote:

---

Both teams had identical records..but we lost twice to them..

---

I'd like to add a thought here.

If the Steelers played out their season as they did, and Cleveland had won just ONE of either the Oakland or AZ games, Browns would have won the division outright- by virtue of a better overall record.

I would have taken that gladly, but there still would have been something a bit hollow about it, because of those losses to Pittsburgh. For me (and a good number of diehard Dawgs out there) it won't feel like Cleveland is a total champion until this stumbling block is hurdled.

I think it can happen as early as next year., and that isn't just homerism talking. Savage said he was building Cleveland to beat the Steelers, and you can see how much closer we are to accomplishing that. Considering the way Pittsburgh played down the stretch, I don't think there was anything about them that would have intimidated our team if we were to have seen them in the '07 playoffs. They weren't exactly looking like Goliath down the stretch, and got handled by Jax pretty well.

To me, the REAL hurdle is overcoming the inertia of dominance they've enjoyed. We've lucked out the occasional win since 99 with inferior talent, but the tide was never going to turn until we acquired some real talent. That is happening now. We still have holes to fill, but the gap has closed considerably. As the talent levels become more evenly balanced, it then comes down to each team's attitude, more than any other factor.

Browns have been scared of Pittsburgh in the past.
Browns have been unsure of themselves in the past.
Browns have been surprised when they've found themselves ahead on points in the past.
Browns have NEVER played a full 60 minutes against Pittsburgh in the past.

The road to the AFCN will wind through Berea the instant we put all that....
...in the past.

I predict a split w/Pittsburgh next year, if we lose the first meeting in a close one. If we win the first one, we could sweep. I honestly do think we're that close.

h.02