DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Texas floods and Trump spending cuts...

BS... Yes, it's an act of god.. No question. One that could have been somewhat predicted. We'll have to wait and see if the firings had anything to do with the inability to get the word out.


You wanna talk about 20-30 minutes? How about both Obama and Biden offered Big Bucks to Kerr county to build an early warning system... BOTH DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS OFFERED. What did Trump Offer?

Kerr County decided to use the money for the sheriff department,,, INSTEAD OF INSTALLING A EARLY WARNING SYSTEM which is what the money was earmarked for.

So yes, an act of God no doubt...But did you ever hear the old saying, God Helps those that help themselves. A 20 minute warning might have saved a bunch of those folks... BUT NOOOOOOOOOOO.,,,, Biden and Obama are communists and we can't take the money they give out.... YIKES.. I've not sure I've ever heard anything so damn dumb in my life.

But Hey Peen, you keep right on trying to justify the stupidity of the MAGA cult.

Pheeew, wow. Don't miss any of this mess. 😬

It is an act of God. Yet we have tornado sirens to warn people about another acts of God. We have hurricane warnings to warn people about that act of God. Multitudes of lives are saved because of that.

You see, there are things beyond human control. On that we certainly agree. I think the only difference we have is most understand that you can put systems in place to greatly decrease the loss of life. A system this community asked the state of Texas to help them with. The state of Texas said no.

Should we not have tornado sirens because tornado's are an act of God? I would think God expects people to use at least an ounce of common sense. It took 45 minutes for that water to rise and the national weather service knew it was likely coming. The local government didn't have the resources to warn the public properly.

Yet here you are.

Here were the warnings issued for that area-



The National Weather Service shared a timeline of alerts sent ahead of catastrophic flooding in Texas after an NYT report questioned whether staffing shortages may have made it harder for forecasters to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials.

The NWS said that on the morning of July 3, the office in Austin/San Antonio held forecast briefings for emergency management and issued a Flood Watch that afternoon. The NWS said Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, "giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met."

An unedited timeline provided by the NWS is below.

The National Water Center Flood Hazard Outlook issued on Thursday July 3rd morning indicated an expansion of flash flood potential to include Kerrville, TX and surrounding areas.

A Flood Watch was issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio at 1:18PM CT on Thursday, in effect through Friday morning.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions for the excessive rainfall event as early as 6:10PM CDT Thursday indicating the potential for Flash Flooding.

The National Water Center Area Hydrologic Discussion (AHD) #144 at issued 6:22 PM CDT on 7/3/2025 messaged locally considerable flood wording for areas north and west of San Antonio, including the city of Kerrville.

The first Flash Flood Warning for the event was issued at 11:41 PM CDT Thursday for Bandera County.

At 1:14 AM CDT Friday: Flash Flood Warning with a considerable tag was issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties. Flash Flood Warnings with the Impact-Based Warning tags “Considerable” or “Catastrophic” denote high-damage threats and will automatically trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) on enabled mobile devices, ensuring only the most life-threatening flash flood events prompt urgent public notifications. All alerts are also sent out over NOAA Weather Radio.

First reports from Kerr County Sheriffs Office of flooding at low water crossings had 201 minutes of lead time (4:35 AM CDT).
Flash Flood Warning was upgraded to a Flash Flood Emergency for South-central Kerr County, Including Hunt, as early as 4:03 AM Friday.

The 5:00 AM CT July 4th National Water Center Area Hydrologic Discussion #146 included concern for widespread considerable flooding through the day. The Flood Hazard Outlook was also upgraded to considerable and catastrophic.
Flash Flood Emergency issued for the Guadalupe River at 5:34 AM CDT.

For Business
|
Warnings
Data Suite
Newsletters
Advertising
Superior Accuracy™
Death toll in Texas reaches 129 as flash flood threat expands.
Life-threatening flash flooding ongoing across central Texas. Get the forecast
North Lima, OH
80°F
Search
Location


AccuWeather Early
Hurricane Center
Top Stories
Trending Today
Astronomy
Heat
Climate
Health
Recreation
In Memoriam
Case Studies
Blogs & Webinars

News / Weather News
How did we get a dozen '1,000-year floods' in 3 days?
Both Texas and North Carolina experienced '1000-year floods' this week. How is that possible, and is the danger increasing?

By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior weather editor

8 Jul, 2025 3:50 PM EDT | Updated 9 Jul, 2025 9:38 AM EDT



After nearly 2 feet of rain fell in central Texas on July 4, causing flooding that killed more than 100 people, almost a foot of rain struck central North Carolina as Tropical Storm Chantal moved inland on July 7. Both are considered to be at least "1,000-year flood" events. But what does that mean, and how could we see so many events in such a short time period?

The terms researchers use to rank floods and heavy rainfall are complex, nuanced, and often confusing.



For home insurance purposes, a 100-year flood means that there is a 1 percent chance of that flood happening in any given year at your home's location. A 1,000-year flood would be a 0.1 percent chance, so in 1,000 years, you'd expect 1 such flood to occur. But statistics don't dictate when during that period the floods will occur, and the floods could happen in rapid succession without violating the rule.

These flood statistics are based on how often the nearest USGS river gauge (there are about 7,500 nationwide) would exceed a certain amount of water flowing past it, based on records at those stations that go back as far as 175 years.


1,000-year rainfall, for meteorologists
For meteorological purposes, when we say "1,000-year flood," we are really talking about the frequency of a certain amount of rainfall at one of tens of thousands of points that have weather station records going back to the 1800s. In meteorology, this is called the "return interval." Again, a 1,000-year rainfall return interval would be a 0.1 percent chance of rain that heavy, or something you could expect in 1,000 years. While that's not exactly the same as the flood definition, they are often used interchangeably.

There are tens of thousands of discrete points on land for which these rainfall amounts are determined, and each has its own 1,000-year amount. There's no reason that multiple locations in the United States couldn't have a 1,000-year rainfall at the same time. In fact, this week, half a dozen points in Texas and North Carolina both had 1,000-year rainfalls.



To complicate things further, each point has different time periods that define the floods, from minutes to hours to days. So, a location could set a 100-year rainfall for 24 hours while setting a 10-year rainfall for 1 hour, at the same time.

Those combinations produce millions of possible records to be broken, so it's not unusual to see multiple records broken every day.

How many 1,000-year rainfalls have there been this year?
Looking at 24-hour time periods of rainfall return intervals, Colorado State University says that 30 points in the United States have broken their 1,000-year rainfall amounts so far this year. There were 35 last year.

The deal is floods can't been seen on radar like the events you mentioned.

Floods are river gauge readings are a good distance from each other and I don't think those reading are reported immediately as are doppler radar images.

you sure about that?
The National Weather Service had lots of different tools for their scientists to use.

One of them is the HRRR model-it is a short term model updated every hour-
here is the description from NOAA on what the HRRR model can do

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) - NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (.gov)
https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov › hrrr
The HRRR is a NOAA real-time 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model, initialized by 3km grids with 3km radar ...
HRRR
HRRR-Smoke
HRRR SFO 1km Nest
Things to know
Description
.
What is the HRRR weather model?
AI Overview
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is a weather model developed by NOAA that provides high-resolution, hourly updated forecasts for the United States. It's known for its ability to resolve smaller-scale weather features and is particularly useful for short-term forecasting and severe weather events.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
High Resolution:
HRRR has a 3-km grid resolution, meaning it divides the atmosphere into a grid with cells that are 3 kilometers wide. This allows it to represent smaller weather features like thunderstorms and localized precipitation with greater detail than models with lower resolution.
Rapid Refresh:
The HRRR model is updated hourly, providing fresh data and forecasts more frequently than many other models. This rapid updating is crucial for tracking rapidly evolving weather conditions.
Real-time Updates:
The HRRR is a real-time model, meaning it's constantly running and providing updated forecasts as new data becomes available.
Key Applications:
HRRR is used for a variety of applications, including:
Severe weather forecasting: It helps predict and track severe weather events like thunderstorms, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
Aviation forecasting: Its high resolution and frequent updates make it valuable for aviation weather forecasts.
Wildfire prediction: The HRRR includes smoke and fire plume prediction, making it useful for wildfire management.
Quantitative precipitation forecasting: It provides detailed precipitation forecasts.
Wind forecasting: It helps with wind energy forecasting and understanding wind patterns.
Comparison with other models:
While the HRRR is excellent for short-range, high-resolution forecasts, other models like the GFS (Global Forecast System) provide broader, longer-range forecasts.
Key Features:
The HRRR model incorporates radar data assimilation, which significantly improves its ability to represent and forecast storms and precipitation. It also includes features like smoke and lake-effect snow prediction.




They also have Hydrologic data-a Hydrologist studies the following-O


"Hydrologic" generally refers to anything related to water, its properties, distribution, and movement, particularly on Earth. It encompasses the scientific study of the hydrologic cycle, water resources, and drainage basin sustainability. A hydrologist is a scientist who specializes in this field
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Hydrologic Cycle:
.
This is the continuous circulation of water on, above, and below the surface of the Earth. It involves processes like evaporation, condensation, precipitation, runoff, and infiltration.
Water Resources:
.
Hydrology studies how much water is available, where it is located, and how it can be used sustainably.
Drainage Basin Sustainability:
.
This aspect focuses on how water moves through a drainage basin (watershed) and how to manage it to prevent issues like floods or droughts.
Hydrologic Disasters:
.
These are extreme events, like floods and droughts, caused by alterations to the hydrologic cycle.
Hydrologic Systems Science:
.
This field examines the impact of climate change on water resources, particularly hydropower, and how hydropower might affect the climate.
Hydrologic Modeling:
.
This involves using computer models to simulate and predict how water moves through the environment, helping with water management and disaster prediction.
Hydrologic Instrumentation:
.
This area focuses on developing and using equipment to monitor and measure water levels, flows, and other hydrological parameters.
Hydrologic Hazards:
.
These are extreme events related to water, such as floods, droughts, and landslides.
Hydrologic Outlooks:
.
These are forecasts issued by weather services to warn of potential flooding or other hydrologic hazards, often when details are uncertain



Of course, the Senior hydrologist the covers the area that flooded was from the San Angelo office and was laid off and they did not fill the position-I mean why would your need a Hydrologist when you have tots and pears.

Once again, you aren't right!

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Can+Flooding+be+predicted

Can floods be predicted: YES Sometimes weeks in advance and sometimes minutes in advance.

Obama and then Biden offered MILLIONS upon MILLIONS to Kerr County to set up and install an early warning system.... The level of stupidity and hate for the Left caused them to decline or misuse the funds.

Honestly, I don't know how many lives that system could have saved. 10, 20, 50? I don't know but wouldn't it have been smarter to have that in place then to deny it because some ass hat told you "Democrat bad, republican good" and without research, you just believed it.

The point you're trying to make is definitely valid. There's enough nonsense coming from all directions to swear off this forum.


But there's a large disparity in the makeup of the folks that decided to not post here after the election. They are the same people that would be defending the actions of this admin. So instead of taking that well-earned victory lap, certain folks have decided to cut bait and run. I find that curious.

Others have already shown you that there are most certainly ways to see when floods are coming and warnings be sent. This is all very simple. The state of Texas refused to fund a warning system when this community requested it. While I can't say it would have prevented all loss of life it would have certainly saved the life of many. No excuses for that are acceptable. And that's all that you're giving, excuses. It's amazing how people rail for personal responsibility from some and make excuses not to hold people accountable for their actions when it involves others.

Sort on like the Epstein list. It was right on the desk but suddenly it vanished.

I disagree about the disparity of folks that have decided to not post here.

Here's why: EVERY single this is "negative" trump. It gets old.

This thread, for example. Trump is getting blamed for the lack of action on the flood.

Perhaps we ought to blame, oh, I don't know? FEMA? The gov't. agency that allowed Camp Mystic to expand in flood zones? Perhaps the rain amount in what WERE flood zones?

https://apnews.com/article/texas-fl...igation-e12bee8d5f88301363861ca12c19b929

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/f...deadly-warnings-records-show/ar-AA1IzMAM

Interesting reading. But, no, blame trump.

It was the warning system that the state refused to pay for which would have saved lives. And in this case the rainy season was well over with. That ends in may in that art of the country. Nobody could have foretold of this type of flooding in July. Much like tornado alley. People live there but there are warning sirens that serve to help save lives. Trump has nothing to do with decisions made by the state of Texas. But if you don't think that all of the cuts to NOAH and the NWS won't have negative consequences moving forward, stay tuned.

And in this case the rainy season was well over with. That ends in may in that art of the country. Nobody could have foretold of this type of flooding in July"

Well, apparently the 'rainy' season wasn't over.

But I love how you say "no one could have foretold of this type of flooding in July.

Yet not a word about FEMA allowing camp Mystic, and probably other camps, to expand into flood zones?

OK,, FEMA didn't do it's job.. Neither did the NWS.. But why? How about the dumbest cuts to staff ever... Who did that? TRUMP

Well, if trump would stop doing stupid , negative things then there would be nothing to post about

See what I'm talking about? Trump, bad. Regardless of facts.

You have to understand Texas geography and climate. That varies depending on your proximity to the coast. I have to chuckle about the rainy season stopping in July. There are these things called hurricanes that are also prevalent in the area, and they can drop a lot of rain in a short period of time. I have done a fair bit of work in my life near Corpus Christi and at least have some familiarity with the issues.

Texas is Texas, they are totally reactive today, as that is the Republican mantra. Remember a few years ago, when the ice storms collapsed the electrical grid. Texas had decided that it did not need weatherization until it did. Before that, winds associated with hurricanes tore the crap out of the state, then the requirements for wind became serious.

There is a long history with disasters in the state of Texas, and I have heard the school blowing up and killing a number of children due to a natural gas issue numerous times. They wait for disasters to address the problem. That is the Texas way.

I am not making stuff up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_London_School_explosion

So what does that have to do with President Trump? As Daman pointed out, the warning could be measured in minutes., if that.

Again, you can't protect everybody against everything, but I get your urge to point fingers because it seems that finger pointing and rioting is all you people have left in the arsenal.

It’s horrible all around…. If it’s true that the county had money for a siren and choose to not use it for that, then that’s horrible….

We also have to respect this was the worst flooding in like 150 years…..

I read a story today that the Mystic camp owner didn’t start evacuating until 45 min after he received the national warning because of warning fatigue,…. Which I understand… my wife gets pissed at me because I always blow off the tornado warnings because we get them too frequently…..

Yes there probably are things that could have gone better… but I also feel it’s generally a tragedy that couldn’t have been totally prevented…. I do hope the area tries to learn from what happened and improves….

Reason the stories have been heartbreaking…. I don;’t know anyone personally who has lost someone but we’ve got several friends who have close ties to people who have been lost… just so sad….

FEMA also went through a RIF at the end of April. That's what people are yapping about. If it's been anything like the other DOGE RIFs, it was poorly communicated (if at all) impacted areas/roles it shouldn't have, and probably took the org weeks if not months (so, ongoing) to figure out how to move forward.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/23/politics/fema-staff-cuts-hurricane-season


The folks you're complaining about aren't posting significantly more than they were before, but you have folks like Fate, Eve, yourself, and others that have been absent in these threads. I get it's annoying, but you all never seemed to have an issue going around in circles with Pit before the election... so what's changed? My opinion/feeling is that I wouldn't want to be in the position of constantly having to defend the policies, as they are, that are rolling out right now. Even policies that I would consider well-intentioned have suffered greatly from extremely poor execution (ex. DOGE and addressing govt waste). I do appreciate this admin doing more than just hand-waving at the issue, but the execution is hard to put into words how bad it's been.

I'm someone that usually doesn't have much trouble finding things to criticize about whatever admin is currently doing its thing, but it's been next-level since the start of this calendar year. Admittedly, the type of stuff he's doing is nothing new (doing more than he should via EA, overpromising on the campaign trail and under-delivering, etc), but like most thing Trump does, he takes things to the next level. Yes, the use of exec action/order has been rising with each subsequent admin regardless of political alignment, but no pres has (to my knowledge, please correct me if necessary) taken aim at a portion of a Constitutional amendment with EO. Each subsequent admin has, with Congress's tolerance/acceptance, eroded the systems of checks and balances between Legislative and Executive, but Trump is making a move towards taking the power of the purse.

My point is, there is a certain level of legit criticism going on in each of these threads. I would argue the that amount of muck you have to wade through to get to substantive debate is marginally higher compared to pre-election. IMO, that doesn't fully explain the sudden lack of counter-argument. I know I've gotten a little scrappy, myself, in some of these threads... but this post here is an honest observation.

I think you just earned best PP post in my book.