DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk NFL Draft 2026 Sports Betting for the Draft

I feel like some posters chimed in on this topic last season (or maybe it was just me) about odds to consider for draft spot selection. I thought we could consolidate the topic to one thread. In the spirit of that, here are the current odds on Draftkings of the top 5 players to be drafted at #6, the Browns current selection spot.

Carnell Tate +185
Monroe Freeling +250
Francis Mauigoa +600
David Bailey +900
Jordyn Tyson +950

There are some interesting odds to consider if one thinks the Browns' preference is to trade down and a team wants to leap frog another to draft a high-end player. For example:

Caleb Downs +1200
Sonny Styles +1500
Jeremiyah Love +1800
Arvell Reese +3000

The odds are high for because the sportbook assumes some of these players might be gone at tispoint, but you never know how it could fall.

Always a fun time of the year. Good stuff, Memphis.

I may have to recklessly sprinkle some coupons on Downs and Fano (have not seen his odds).

The monsters over at FD only current draft betting options is "who will be selected at #3 overall." They need to get with the program and get more options released. Hopefully, as the draft approaches.

The season win total for the Browns is a betting option:

Over 6.5 wins (+140)
Under 6.5 wins (-165)

Vegas is piling the juice on the under win total.

All I know is I don't want to have anything to do with Tyson. The guy is frail.

A very good player, when he plays. Broken bones. Torn up knee. Hamstring issues.

No thanks.

Same here, we’ve had good young players who were made of glass.

Lee Suggs was one of them.

Tate is my guy for WR.

It would be a fun story to draft him since his brother plays for the Cavs, but like you, a bit concerned about the injuries.

Some other interesting ones:

Over/Under on OL being drafted in the first round is 7.5.....-115 in both directions.
Over/Under on QBs being drafted in the first round is 1.5.......Over is -280
Over/Under on WRs being drafted in the first round is 5.5....Under is -225. Interesting.

Amen. The risk is way too high for a team like the Browns.

I need the odds of Ty Simpson to the Browns at #24.

Carnell Tate +185
Monroe Freeling +320
Francis Mauigoa +500
Spencer Fano +1000
David Bailey +1000
Jordyn Tyson +1000

Although the odds haven't changed for Tate, he separated a bit from Freeling. And Fano has entered the field.

Over/Under on OL being drafted in the first round is 7.5.....-155 Over, +120 Under. This seems to mirror of lot of the things I've listened to and/or read. Other OL are in the conversation in Rd. 1. Not sure if this is media catching up with the league with 2.5 weeks to go.
Over/Under on QBs being drafted in the first round is 1.5.......Over is -205, Under + 155. Thinking about taking the Under.
Over/Under on WRs being drafted in the first round is 5.5....Over is +170, Under is -225. Thinking about taking the over w/ Tate, Tyson, Lemon, Concepcion, Cooper, Boston going in Rd. 1.

Carnell Tate +150
Monroe Freeling +425
Francis Mauigoa + 550
Spencer Fano +900
David Baily +1200
Jordyn Tyson +1300

Tate continues to separate.

One of my entered bets.....a 5 Pick Parlay

These five players will go in the first round.

KC Concepcion
Blake Miller
Malachi Lawrence
Akheem Mesidor
Caleb Lomu

+265

Nothing crazy but maybe a couple on the fence. Putting the Jackson Hole property on the line once again!

Pick #6 Update:

Carnell Tate +140
Spencer Fano +500
Monroe Freeling +600
Francis Mauigoa +650
Sonny Styles +1000
Kadyn Proctor +1400

Spencer Fano makes a significant leap, Styles and Proctor make the top 5, but Tate continues to separate even more.

Happy NFL Draft Week to all who celebrate!

Carnell Tate +300
Spencer Fano +380
Sonny Styles +450
Francis Mauigoa +600
Monroe Freeling +800

WOAH! Major changes are afoot! Tate's odds plummeted with Fano moving up significantly to only separate by +80. Freeling plummeted (not surprising to me) and this looks like quite a toss up at 6. I wonder if Vegas is thinking a trade could be in the works.

I agree.. I think the Dallas trade rumors are hitting the betting floor...

I think they are thinking Fano at #12

I would not draft Mauioga. He already has back issues, and we cannot afford taking a chance on our future LT having back problems. Again, as I stated on another post, I would NOT take a chance drafting any player that already has injury concerns, and I base this on our history with this issue. Injury history is a red flag IMO and should be avoided.

I wouldn't be surprised it if was for Tyson.

If we draft Mauigoa, it won't be for the LT tackle position, it will be either RT or more likely guard. That being said, I agree.

Which leads me to:



Jordyn Tyson also has those injury issues. I have been doing a lot of mocks and though they are by no means accurate.. When making this trade down with Dallas, Tate, Lemon AND Tyson have been gone more times than not by #12. It leads to taking another position, including offensive line and then sometimes I can get Boston, other times he is also gone by #20.

Under no circumstances do I want Concepcion. Issues with drops have never worked out positively for us, could he be the exception? Sure, but I would rather stay away if at all possible.

If I am assured to get Dezel Boston at either #20 with a trade or #24 staying put, I am ok with taking someone other than Tate at #6. There are no guarantees though...

I agree with your post Irish. Freeling and Proctor would be the guys we would draft for LT and I hope we can get one of them. I don't want Concepcion because of the drop issues. I remember Braylon Edwards and Quincy Morgan and there was probably another guy or 2. No Thanks. Too many other options to take that chance.

I actually like KC Concepcion for us. I think he'd be a good fit with Sanders. Easy separator. Not the biggest catch radius which hurt with a QB that sprayed the ball at times. The drop percentage could very well be a lot lower if the QB hit him when he was wide open. Having a guy that can get open quickly is something we kind of lacked. Throwing fade balls to him is never going to be his forte. Feed him slants, option, screens and crossing routes. Plus he has ST value as a returner. He may have the occasional drop, but he'll probably pull more rabbits out of hats, turning what looks like its dead on arrival into chunk plays. He appears to be kind of a one speed runner (full bore.) His drops mostly seem to come when he has to slow down for an off target throw. Hopefully Sanders' accuracy mitigates the number of those potential instances he finds himself in. He's just dangerous with the ball in his hands. We need more of those kinds of players. Deep ball winners are great... if your OL can hold up long enough to get it out to them. But, even with time, those are lower percentage plays. You can scheme up quick game for Concepcion. Put it in front of him and let him run (full speed) through it. Concepcion has twice as many TDs in his college career as Carnell Tate (28 to 14.) Tyson had 23 though had an additional year and has the injury concerns. (4 years in college vs 3 for Tate and KC.) Only will be 21. I also like that KC had an early breakout age. He balled as a freshman. Makai Lemon on the other hand had 6 total catches as a freshman.

Take someone like Ja'Kobi Lane later for those fades and back shoulder throws. Let Bond have the field stretching, low percentage deep shots.

I kind of like Brugler's mock. I think Fano and KC mesh well. Fano is good/great in space/on the move. Could see him popping Concepcion free on screens.

But then I'm trying to look more at accentuating strengths this draft and what might work together with what we've got than my normal find what is wrong with guys approach.

I feel the same way. Catching is obviously uber important - think of how many drops Braylon Edwards had thru lapses of concentration, think of Jeudy the last 2 seasons - but I do love the idea of having a guy who separates consistently. And I have read plenty to suggest that it's technique as much as ability for Concepcion. Technique is most definitely coachable. At 24 - I would be happy with that pick, but I do get there is an element of risk. 8% drop rate is very high.

The drops are definitely a bit concerning, but drops aren't really a "sticky" stat to me. Dez Bryant had a year with 12 drops. Sometimes they happen. It can be pretty volatile year to year, and not all drops are created equally. I don't see a "stone hands" situation with Concepcion.

I don't really see it as a "technique issue." I see it more as a waiting isn't naturally in his DNA issue. When he has to slow down for a late, behind and slow pass it can throw him out of synch. It sort of seems like at times he's thinking three moves ahead at lightning speed, but when the ball isn't where it's supposed to be when he expects it to be there, he has to hit rewind and his hands aren't always in synch with the recalculations. Sort of a mental overload where time's still going forward while he has to mentally go backwards, while also physically still adjusting to what's happening around him. Because he's so sudden/explosive, it can be hard to "slow down" when he's already made a move.

I think theoretically Shedeur's natural accuracy could limit the times he would need to recalculate. At the same time, I think his ability to get open quickly could limit Shedeur's issues when he holds the ball too long.

KC can stop quickly and will find the spots to sit down against zone. He just kind of has to have planned to stop.

100% ...

OUCH in the Quincy memory. I groaned out loud at my keyboard.

The issues I have is that if this were a single season issue it wouldn't be as much of an concern. it also appears his drops weren't mainly highly contested balls it was more the garden variety that he simply just dropped by loss of concentration. One may think it was an anomaly if it weren't two seasons in a row. But from the information I have found his drop rate was actually fairly consistent from 2024 to 2025. Depending on the source it appears his drop rate in 2025 is estimated between 10.3% to 11.1%. In 2024 his drop rate ranged between 9.1% to 11.7%.

The thing that brings his drop rate down as much as it is for his college career is in 2023 he had a very low drop rate of 4.8%.

I'm not 100% sure of the accuracy of these stats but I'm pretty sure they're it's at least close to being accurate.

I can't argue that accuracy should improve with Sanders over Marcel Reed. Reed was his QB for both of those high drop seasons... still..


I side with PitDawg on this one. If you have that type of issue, there are ways to make a marked improvement year over year, he didn't from 2024 to 2025. That tells me either he didn't have good enough coaching, doesn't understand, or worse, he doesn't care. The last one is why I caution against him. There is no way to know until he shows up at camp. A first round bargain, I'm just not willing to risk.

Wasn't his QB CJ Bailey in 2024 when he was still at N.C State and Marcel Reed his QB at Texas Tech in 2025?

You are right, he was a transfer to Texas A&M from NC State... Marcel Reed was the QB at A&M

CJ Bailey was his QB at NC State in 2024, Brennan Armstrong, the lefty, was his QB at NC State in 2023.

None of these QBs show a lot of accuracy in their stats.

I think honing in on one statistic loses sight of the bigger picture. Here's every target this season. The Auburn drop was bad, but how much good was there around it. The LSU drop not great, but he came right back and housed a punt. I like that the drops don't seem to linger. How many worm burners are in there? How many hospital balls? He makes contested catches. He makes acrobatic catches. He'll make catches where he knows he's going to be lit up. He finishes plays. He makes people miss.

I'm not going to completely dismiss the drops, but I think the good far outweighs them, and he fits the profile of what I believe the offense is really missing. Plus, he's just a football player. He's got that dog in him so to speak. He reminds me of Antonio Brown.

You can focus on the drops. I tend to put a bit more weight on the other ~90% of his tape. As far as anomaly or not, 2 seasons in a row isn't really a whole lot of data.

There are a lot of good catches to watch. I have only watched 3 or 4 minutes. Some of the drops are really not on the WR but they are still drops. Maybe I will watch more - he doesn't look like a burner when he is running as it's pretty effortless and he is very shifty, the idea that he will get open and run good routes in the NFL seems well founded.

I have commented a couple of times on his drop rate. If we draft him, that will be in the past and I hope he is awesome, same as I feel with anyone we draft. I do know he has PAC abilities that our WRs seem to currently lack. I am in my mid-sixties and have be a crazy fan since 1969. I really don't care about who plays, including QB, I want to see the Browns in a SB.

Final Draft Day look for #6

Spencer Fano +300
Carnell Tate +350
Sonny Styles +550
Francis Mauigoa +650
Jordyn Tyson +700

And Fano leapfrogs Tate at the very end. Tyson pops on the list which is very appealing to me. I think Sonny Styles is there for trade possibilities.

Here are my bets. I might sprinkle in some more but here is where I am losing all my money tonight:

- #3 Pick- Jeremiyah Love +500: I think there are many ways this can happen as he is arguably the one of the top three players in the draft. Either ARZ will take him or a team could trade up. I did sprinkle some of him at #4 too.

- #4 Pick- David Bailey +550: I made this assuming Love and Reese are gone. I did sprinkle a little of him at #3 as well.

- #5 Pick- Sonny Styles +195: Took this awhile ago and I don't really feel any differently. Downs could be in play here but they might feel they can get him at #10.

- #6 Pick- Carnell Tate +180 & +300: I made an extra bet once the line moved so much earlier in the week. I do think WR will be the pick if they can't trade down. Hell, Browns might trade down to let someone take Tate as well if they like Tyson more. That is not out of the realm of possibilities if a team thinks Washington likes Tate one pick after. I think Tyson is in the mix for the Browns and might make a small bet there too.

- #10 Pick- Caleb Downs +285: I made this bet before Cincy made their trade but could see NYG taking him here as well. So I might have gotten lucky.

- Over 7.5 on total OL taken in the first round -155: Not a strong value bet but seems like that is where we might be headed down tonight.

- My parlay on players picked in the first is posted earlier in this thread.

I might make mid-draft bets but here are the few I've made over the past several weeks. Let me know where I am wrong! Haha.

I don't know what to make of Love. The player part makes sense early (or at least the perception I'm seeing written, though haven't really dug in myself.) The contract/money part is tough.

I think he could "fall" a bit. I think KC, or somebody else, could move up to 3 for Reese if Bailey goes 2.

I don't know that Salah would go RB that early. He had good RBs with the Jets, but it didn't actually do a whole lot for him. I don't think Tennessee's RB room as is is the problem. They do have plenty of other problems. Could be another trade down candidate.

I could possibly see him with the Giants. More likely now that they have 10 also. But the money makes me hesitate still. They do have the rookie QB contract to offset the big RB guarantees, and don't have to pay Dexter Lawrence any more.

You've inspired me to have a wager on an event I would never bet on before:

Sonny Styles to be picked in the top 5 - even money.
First WR drafted: Tate 10/11
Third WR taken: Tyson 10/1 (banking on injury making an impact)
Fano to be drafted 11th or later - even money.

When your main job is to catch the ball and you're having trouble catching the ball that's a pretty good stat to hone in on. I would venture to say that's probably the #1 stat you want to hone in on. If you have trouble catching the ball, every other thing surrounding that really doesn't matter. Catching the football is MUCH more than 10% of a WR's job. Did you really call the other parts 90% of it?

You have 3 years of data. 66.6% of that data, and that 66.6% being his last 2 years is all you have to go on. Trying to marginalize the data you do have is not a smart decision to make just because a WR runs good routes and is quick. They are both fine qualities but none of that makes a difference if you don't catch the ball.

One thing I know about highlight tapes or just tapes in general. You get shown what the person who made the video wants you to see and not what he doesn't want you to see.

A WR catching the ball. Priority #1.