DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Iran War II

U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months
May 7, 2026 in News
U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.

The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.

Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.

Trump painted a rosier picture in Oval Office remarks on Wednesday, saying of Iran: “Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”

Three current and one former U.S. official confirmed the outlines of the intelligence analysis, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

Asked for comment, a senior U.S. intelligence official emphasized the blockade’s impact. “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse. Iran’s military has been badly degraded, its navy destroyed, and its leaders are in hiding,” the official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, said in a statement. “What’s left is the regime’s appetite for civilian suffering — starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.”

Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other officials have consistently presented the war as an overwhelming U.S. military victory, despite Iran’s rejection of Washington’s demands that it abandon nuclear enrichment, surrender its uranium stockpiles, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and take other steps.

Trump called the blockade “unbelievable” on Wednesday. “The Navy has been incredible. The job they did … it’s like a wall of steel. Nobody goes through,” he said.

A day prior, he said Iran’s economy “is crashing,” their currency is “worthless,” and they “can’t pay their soldiers.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, touting the president’s sanctions regime, dubbed “Economic Fury,” noted in late April that Iran’s main oil terminal would soon reach capacity, “causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure.”

But Iran has proved resilient, despite losing its supreme leader and many other top officials to missile strikes, as well as much of its military hardware.

One of the U.S. officials who spoke to The Washington Post said they thought Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even the CIA estimate. “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”

Since the war began Feb. 28, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for shipping oil from the Persian Gulf.

A week after the ceasefire was reached April 7, Trump imposed a blockade on Iran, applying it to all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. His move followed the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan. “I think Iran is in very bad shape. I think they’re pretty desperate,” he said at the time. “I don’t care if they come back [to negotiations] or not. If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”

On Sunday, Trump launched a mission he called “Project Freedom” with a goal to help commercial vessels transit the strait, including with U.S. Navy escorts, only to say Tuesday that the operation had been pausedbecause of “Great Progress” in peace talks.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Wednesday that it was reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the war and would relay its response via Pakistani mediators.

Iran’s economy is reeling from the effects of the war, as well as from persistent inflation and economic mismanagement.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Iran is losing half a billion dollars daily because of the blockade. “During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily,” Kelly said in a statement. “Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States Military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports. The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”

But the CIA estimate says Iran can survive the U.S. blockade for 90 to 120 days — and maybe longer — before facing more severe economic hardship, the four people familiar with it said.

Tehran is storing some of its oil aboard tanker ships that otherwise would be empty because of the blockade, one of the people said. It is also decreasing the flows in its oil fields to ensure the wells remain functional. “It’s nowhere near as dire as some have claimed,” this person said of Iran’s economic situation.

The CIA analysis might even be underestimating Iran’s economic resilience if Tehran is able to smuggle oil via overland routes. Truck and rail convoys can’t replace the volume of ships and open sea lanes but might provide an economic cushion, one of the U.S. officials said. “There’s a belief they could begin moving some oil via rail through Central Asia,” the official said.

On the matter of Iranian weapons, the confidential intelligence assessment says that Iran’s inventory of missiles and mobile launchers remains formidable.

Iran is thought to have had roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war began, as well as thousands more unarmed drones. Iran has used those weapons to launch retaliatory strikes against U.S. allies in the Gulf as well as U.S. military sites across the region. A Post visual investigation found that Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East, a level of destruction far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government.

The timeline for when Iran can again start producing ballistic missiles in substantial quantities has shortened, one of the U.S. officials said.

To control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, however, the missiles matter less than the lower-cost drones, analysts inside and outside the government say. And unlike medium–range missiles that can strike, say, Israel, these drones can be built in small warehouses and easily concealable facilities, another U.S. official said.

“All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance” to the oil tankers, said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

In early April, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that more than half of Iran’s missile launchers were still intact and that it had thousands of one-way attack drones in its arsenal, The Post and CNN reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch in Israeli military intelligence, said that even if the blockade lasted several months, it would not force the regime to bend to Washington’s demands. “The problem is they don’t think they need to capitulate,” he said.

In the end, he said, despite U.S.-Israeli military successes in Iran, the outcome still could be strategic failure.

“What started as a war supposedly aimed at toppling the regime and dismantling its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities,” Citrinowicz posted Wednesday on X, “may instead leave Iran’s regime stronger than before — empowered by sanctions relief, still retaining significant missile capabilities, continuing support for its proxies, and almost certainly preserving uranium enrichment on its own soil.’’

The post U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months appeared first on Washington Post.

https://dnyuz.com/2026/05/07/u-s-in...tlast-trumps-hormuz-blockade-for-months/

“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”

- Not a surprise really, not if anyone is paying attention. There's so many things wrong and questionable with everything the administration has done. Putting aside the reason for going to war (Netanyahu) and the war being illegal (international law) and not being anything what so ever that NATO would be involved with. . . .

- Trump and Hegseth have thumped their chest and crowed about how totally annihilated Iran's military capacity was - even as they fired missiles and attacked their geographic neighbors.

- Trump and Hegseth have gone on and on and on endlessly about how desperate Iran is to make a deal - while Iran has essentially given the middle finger back in return while telling the world there is no negotiations.

- Trump's rhetoric and proclamations have gotten wilder and more unhinged - indicating to anyone with a brain, the US and Trump has lost or doesn't have any leverage.

- Deadlines have been set repeatedly - and they always sail by and get extended or ignored. Project Freedom lasted 24 hours.

=== The result of this military action by the US and Israel has done one thing - it has made Iran realise how much leverage they have, how much pressure and military force they can sustain while still being essentially in the driving seat. The US does not want a ground war no matter what - and Israel can't launch a ground war no matter what.

We aren't stronger and safer - we've essentially empowered Iran. The Orange Clown in office together with his He-Man wannabe Sec of War have made a huge mess. . . . and just wait for the continued accusations that to point all of this out is somehow treasonous and un-American.

One big "glow"?

Trump Rejects New Iran Peace Offer as ‘Totally Unacceptable’

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s latest peace proposals to end the 10-week conflict as the two sides struggle to maintain a fragile ceasefire.

“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives,’” Trump said in a social media post. “I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”

Iran offered to transfer some of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country, but rejected the idea of dismantling its nuclear facilities, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier. Iran disputed the report, according to the country’s semi-official news agency Tasnim.

It was unclear whether the exchange of proposals would offer a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Under its latest proposal, Iran would dilute some of its highly enriched uranium and have the rest sent to a third country, the WSJ said, citing people familiar with the response, but it also called for guarantees the transferred uranium would be returned if talks fail and ruled out dismantling its facilities.

Iran’s semi-official news agency Tasnim said the WSJ’s reporting on proposals for handling nuclear material was “not true.” The statement emphasized Iran’s desire for an immediate end to the war, the release of its frozen assets, a lifting of US sanctions on oil sales, an end to the US blockade of the Gulf of Oman, and ultimately Iranian management of the strait. State-run IRIB News added that Tehran rejected Trump’s plan as tantamount to surrender and insisted the US must also pay war damages.

Trump had proposed that Iran permit passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington end its blockade on Iranian ports in the next month, with nuclear talks to follow.

Oil rose with the dollar after Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal. Brent was up about 3.5% to above $104 a barrel, recovering some of last week’s losses. US equity-index futures edged lower as the standoff weighed on risk sentiment.

Iran has been “playing games” with the US and other countries, Trump said in a social media post earlier Sunday. “They will be laughing no longer!”

Trump and his advisers have repeatedly suggested the war is over, even while threatening to escalate attacks if Tehran does not agree to a peace deal. Trump is scheduled to travel to China this week despite the ongoing conflict.

The president has said repeatedly that Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and claimed as recently as last week that the country had already agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions.

The president did not say in his social media post what the consequences, if any, of his dissatisfaction with Iran’s response would be. In recent weeks, Trump has appeared eager to draw a line under the conflict as he faces rising political pressure to bring down gasoline prices across the US ahead of the November midterm elections, when his fellow Republicans hope to hold on to control of Congress.

The conflict has killed thousands of people across the Middle East and upended oil and gas markets, with soaring fuel prices piling pressure on governments and consumers worldwide.

Here’s more related to the war:

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, warned it would take several months for the market to return to normal even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes that he would like to end US financial support for Israel’s military over the next decade. The US currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion a year in military assistance under a 10-year agreement originally negotiated by the Obama administration that lasts through 2028.

Despite the ceasefire in place since April 8, a drone strike briefly set a cargo vessel ablaze off Qatar in the Persian Gulf, marking the latest shipping attack in the region. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait both said they had intercepted hostile drones.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trum...r-as-totally-unacceptable-013346837.html

Trump Says Iran Ceasefire ‘On Life Support’ After Bragging He Has ‘The Best Plan Ever’

President Donald Trump said Monday that the ceasefire with Iran is not in a great place at the moment because he believes Iran’s proposals to end the war have been “unacceptable.”

“It’s unbelievably weak,” Trump said of the ceasefire. “It’s on life support.”

"Life support is not a good thing," he continued. "I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support where the doctor walks in and says, 'Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living.’”

Speaking before reporters and allies gathered in the Oval Office moments earlier, he boasted about his "plan" to end the war.

“You know, a lot of people said, ‘Well, does he have a plan?' Yeah, of course I do have a plan. I have the best plan ever," Trump said. “I have a plan. It’s a very simple plan.”

Trump then laid out his plan, which is no plan at all: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”



https://www.huffpost.com/entry/late...3Q&brid=YWdncwGqwKmG8cReBnbkchAEu24r

Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz won’t return to normal until next year even if war ended tomorrow, warns energy boss

Full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to resume before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the current Middle East conflict were to end immediately, the chief of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm has warned.

Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, said it would take “at least four months to get back to 80% of ​pre-conflict ⁠flows” even if the conflict ended tomorrow, while full flows would not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.

His stark assessment, delivered at an Atlantic Council event on Wednesday, represents one of the most pessimistic outlooks from top industry executives amid stalling efforts on both sides to secure a peace agreement.

The International Energy Agency has labelled the situation the "largest ever energy crisis" due to the near-closure of the strait, a vital chokepoint through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. Iran has established de facto control over the waterway, leading to a surge in energy prices, heightened inflation, and growing fears of a global economic downturn.

Mr Al Jaber’s concerns echo those of Amin Nasser, chief executive of neighbouring Saudi Arabia's oil giant Aramco, who previously cautioned that the oil market might not recover until 2027 if the situation persists through mid-June.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Iran is solidifying its control over the strait through checkpoints, vetting procedures, and sometimes imposing fees. Tehran began attacking vessels in the strait to impose a de facto blockade after the ⁠US-Israeli assault against Iran began on 28 February.

Since then, Iran has broadened its definition of the waterway to encompass the UAE's Gulf of Oman coastline, just outside the strait. This area has become a crucial lifeline for the UAE, with a crude pipeline terminating at the port of Fujairah on that coastline, enabling some Emirati crude to reach international markets.

Mr Al Jaber emphasised the wider implications beyond economics. "This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished," he said.

Mr Al Jaber emphasised the wider implications beyond economics. "This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished," he said.

"If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences."

The ADNOC chief highlighted the conflict's exposure of supply chain fragility, noting a 30 per cent rise in fuel prices, a 50 per cent increase in fertiliser costs, and airfares climbing by a quarter. He urged renewed investment to bolster global energy resilience.

He said: "Every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price, and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load."

Mr Al Jaber also pointed out that "just over 80 days into this conflict, almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/oil-flows-strait-hormuz-won-112955901.html

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2026/04...he-iran-war-a-global-supply-chain-shock/

An OECD report in mid-March made a brave attempt to forecast the war impact on the global economy with a downside scenario of oil prices averaging $135/b in 2Q2026 and, although falling thereafter, remaining higher than before the war into 2027. This suggested that global GDP growth could slow from 2.9% to 2.6% in 2026 and from 3.0% to 2.5% in 2027.

But these forecasts could be underestimates depending on how long the war will last, if it escalates, or how it will end.

-------------------------

But it's okay because MAGA will convince themselves that THIS time Trump (and Netanyahu - who has said Iran was weeks away from a nuke for 20 years) was telling the truth.

The ironic part is that, when all is said and done, Trump will have done more to push EV's than Biden ever could.

I don't think people really understand how (relatively) "easy" (with readily available technology Iran already has access to) it is to make a nuclear device. It's not some super complex, decade spanning process. The hard part is acquiring the (nuclear) materials. Once you have the materials, a device can come together fast. And since Iran already has a nuclear power plant, uranium enrichment facilities, and rockets....

I'll take the IAEA's word over Trump and Netanyahu. That is up to the point some knuckle head who simply wanted to undo anything "Obama" and cancelled it in a hissy fit. As I mentioned ... Netanyahu is on record (video, audio and print) over the last 20+ years continuously stating Iran is imminently close to having nuclear weapons - weeks or months away. As easy as you stated it is - funny how for 20+ years they just didn't finish it.


* And you side stepped the fact that Trump destroyed Iran's nuclear capability months ago with perfect airstrikes. "completely and totally obliterated" were his words. But now he's telling the truth.
* You also side stepped the global economic impact of this war that so far has not made anything safer. Not created regime change (unless you think the son of the Supreme Leader taking over is regime change).
* Instead you've pivoted to a discussion about how easy it is to make a nuke. Maybe you think that's a more important point - but I would disagree.

Yet it has had all of these things for a very long time now. I'm still not sure why nobody seems to address this. In June of 2025 after the initial bombing trump stated he had "obliterated Iran's nuclear capability". That he had set it back "many years if not decades".

Only eight months later he claimed they were on the verge of having a nuclear weapon.

Benjamin Netanyahu has been consistently warning that Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon for over 30 years. Throughout this period, he has frequently stated that Iran is only months or a few years away from a bomb.

So considering they have had the materials to build a nuclear weapon for all that time and still haven't managed to do it. After having heard The Boy who Cried Wolf for decades now and considering we were told two entirely opposite stories within an eight month time period, color me skeptical.

I didn't sidestep something that wasn't mentioned in the post I was responding to. I just was commenting on a different aspect that was mentioned.

Just because some comment Trump made elsewhere that I wasn't commenting on was false, doesn't make an entirely different statement, by someone else, false.

I never said the statement was true.

Again, my not talking about what you want me to talk about isn't sidestepping. I was replying to a specific idea presented in the post I was replying to. If you asked me about global impact and I talked about something else, that would be side stepping.

This looks like people just looking for things to take offense at.

I think all the points are important. It has nothing to do with more or less. I don't think people understand how close Iran is to a nuke. Not just Iran, but any group with bad intentions. It's scary. It seems you think because they haven't that means they couldn't if they tried. Unfortunately, the one doesn't preclude the other.

Yes, Trump is frequently lying about the efficacy of what he does.

They are "on the verge." If we allow them, they could very quickly.

They haven't because there is/had been oversight. The nuclear material has been closely monitored. Yet, the pieces are in place to allow rapid manufacture.

They were monitored until trump made sure they were no longer monitored.

To claim they're "on the verge" that must mean that somehow you have determined which statement trump made that was a lie and which one of those statements was true. You must have also determined that after 30 years of Netanyahu lying about Iran being close to a nuclear weapon that this is finally the time he is telling the truth.

For someone who claims that they don't trust anyone it seems odd you now seem to be putting trust in Netanyahu who has been lying about this for decades and or trump who has told you two opposite stories about this in eight months.

Or maybe it's just a belief you have come to on your own. But if that's the case do you have anything that would be basis in factual evidence to support your belief?

As I've stated before, those pieces have been in pace for quite some time now. None of that has changed in several years.

You think I'm saying one thing while I'm actually saying the opposite. I'm saying Trump, if anything, has made things worse.

"International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight in Iran remains significantly constrained. Following military strikes on several Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-2025, Tehran suspended cooperation and blocked access to key locations. Despite an agreement in principle between the IAEA and Iran to resume inspections, monitoring efforts face major hurdles." (Google nuclear inspection in Iran)

Outside agencies don't know where the nuclear material is right now.

edit: Personally, that seems pretty important.

I fully understand that part of what you have posted and we certainly agree to that extent. 100% agree.

This is the portion I'm taking issue with...........


This, while it's only one of the reasons trump used to start a war with Iran, it was certainly a top reason given. It's as if you have accepted and endorse that part of the reasoning to have started all of this as I'm understanding it but I may be wrong. That's why they questions I'm posing are related to this specifically.

I have a hard time understanding what you're taking issue with in the quote. It seems a fairly straight forward laying out of the situation.

I accept that part of the reasoning, I think. I don't really see a reason given in the quote. But, If you're implying removing nuclear capability from a terroristic regime was the reason, sure. (I'm not sure if the public reasons were Trump's actual reasons)

Planning and execution were pathetic. (Which could perhaps be partially explained if the actual reasons were different. I.e, personal financial, distraction, or machismo-- which would all be awful reasons)

There's also just the very real possibility that there are idiots in positions of power now that don't understand how things actually work.

I suppose it's more the vagueness in parts of it. What we've witnessed doesn't seem to align with some of your assertions......................


I'm not privy to how much or how little technology Iran has access to. I'm sure there are far less advanced technology and far more advanced technology in developing nuclear weapons and it seems as long as it has taken Iran to this point it's been a very slow process.


Yet once again Iran has had nuclear materials for decades now.


In 1957, Iran and the US signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement as part of President Dwight Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" program. This led to the construction of Iran's first nuclear research facility at Tehran by the U.S. which was completed in 1967.

The much larger Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, was completed in 2011. Fifteen years ago. So after fifteen years of having nuclear power Iran still hadn't completed a nuclear weapon.

Iran first had uranium enrichment capability in 2006. Twenty years ago.

Iran first launched ballistic missiles in March 1985, firing Soviet-supplied Scud-B missiles against an Iraqi oil installation near Kirkuk during the Iran-Iraq War. Twenty six years ago.

For something that is supposed to advance so easily after these capabilities are available to a country, this seems to have all been happening at a snails pace. Something about all of that isn't adding up.