DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Iran War... MoU and forward

https://apnews.com/article/mou-transcript-iran-us-war-8576fbe2be1309977e903463fbf57ee6

The link above is a straight transcript of the MoU. Below are my thoughts based on my understanding of what I just read. While there is heavy sarcasm below, please do correct me if I'm misunderstanding anything. I am very interested in understanding how this war is settled.

1. Termination of hostilities... which includes Lebanon... but Israel isn't signing the MoU? This seems... flawed, especially since Israel is saying they are fighting Hamas.

4. Part of the agreement is to remove US forces "from the proximity of Iran". We have 16 military bases/locations along the border of Iran and on the shores of the Persian Gulf.

5. I don't see the same type of strict deadlines for resuming of commercial traffic past Hormuz as there is in paragraph 4. Also, passage of commercial traffic at no charge is only for 60, which I assume overlaps with a ramping up period as the strait still has to be demined. This paragraph also leaves open the possibility of fees being instated after the initial 60-day period. This has been left open enough to really turn around and bite us hard.

6. I can't wait to see how Trump is going to spin giving Iran $300B (on top of paragraphs 7, 10, and 11) for reconstruction. Maybe this is a standard arrangement that's given to the country that got bombed by the aggressors, but paying the regime you said you'd dismantle $300B to rebuild their infrastructure is gonna sting DJT's ego. Bet he's not gonna sign that check with his comically large signature and one of those stupid sharpies.
Also... "regional partners"? So who else is getting in on paying this bill? Israel? The Saudis?

7. Termination of all sanctions. This seems reasonable and is WAY more valuable chip to them than it is to us.

8. "... Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons". BAHAHAHAHA! So after all that, all we got on the main issue (Iran's nuclear program) was to get back to what Obama negotiated back in 2016. I realize this issue is the main point of the ongoing negotiations, but the fact we huffed and puffed and this is all we have to show for it does not bode well. Honestly, I can see this being the symbolic turning point of America losing it's top spot among the world powers.

11. So the thing that Obama got all that flack for (paying Iran in the form of unfreezing financial assets), we are going to do again. That's a tough look for this admin... and that's on top of signing a big fat check to repay for all the stuff we blew up. Is this the reason we laid off all those federal workers and slashed the federal budget for public education? So we could drop a gajillion dollars worth of bombs that now we have to replenish and then pay Iran for the inconvenience. Wow...

Are we trying to make Russia feel better about how they're doing in Ukraine? "Don't worry, Putin... it happens to the best of us".

So it was all part of the weaving plan.

I see. Start a war spend billions. Get people killed.

And then pay them for the damage.

Already then what leadership. I feel so much safer.

I'm trying to figure out what was gained compared to before we started this war.

As deal takes force, Trump says ‘it’s okay’ for Iran to have some ballistic missiles

“If other countries have them, it’s a little bit unfair for them not to have some,” Trump said in France, where he held a press conference on the sidelines of a G7 summit. “If Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and they all have some, I would say that in relative proportion, I think it’s okay” for Iran to have ballistic missiles as well.

“Missiles aren’t the problem… They hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet (like nuclear weapons do),” Trump said.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-de...or-iran-to-have-some-ballistic-missiles/

Senate Republicans raise alarm over Trump’s deal with Iran

President Trump’s deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions on Iran is getting strong pushback from Senate Republicans on Capitol Hill who warn that giving Iran’s theocratic regime access to billions of dollars in economic relief would be a major “blunder.”

Some Republicans are warning that the likely outcome of the more than 100-day conflict is not worth the cost to the nation: the lives of 13 American service members and more than $100 billion spent.

“Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” fumed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a social media post, calling the war and its outcome the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”

“Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal,” he wrote on the social platform X.

“Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped,” he continued.

Most concerning to some Senate GOP critics is that the deal will immediately lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports and may lead to the unfreezing of Iranian assets around the world.

“History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

The deal leaves open the future of Iran’s nuclear program and does not clearly prohibit Iran from levying tolls on the Strait of Hormuz at some point in the future, according to senators who reviewed the deal.

It also leaves open the future of Iran’s missile program, which remains robust even after weeks of American and Israeli bombardment, according to intelligence estimates.

A classified CIA assessment estimated that Iran still had 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile and 75 percent of its mobile missile launchers, according to a report by The Washington Post.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said the lack of significant Iranian concessions on its nuclear program, its weapons arsenal and its long-standing practice of funding militant proxies throughout the Middle East raises serious concerns. He pointed out the deal doesn’t prevent Iran from continuing to enrich uranium or toll the strait, and “it gives them a lot of money they can use to fund their proxies.”

The agreement would only guarantee that Iran does not impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz for a period of 60 days. After that time, Iran will negotiate with Oman to define the future administration of, and maritime services through, the strait.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said it’s hard to argue that Trump’s decision to order joint missile strikes with Israel against Iran in late February produced an outcome to justify the cost in lives and munitions.

Tillis said the deal appears weak “on its face.”

“You got to do the balance of accounts: a hundred billion roughly, maybe more, spent today; 13 dead, 365 wounded, injured; our partners in the Middle East bombed, they’ve had casualties. There’s got to be a lot of return on that,” Tillis said, summing up the cost of the conflict.

He said Trump appears to have fallen well short of his objectives at the start of the war.

“We set out by saying we were going to drive down to zero their nuclear capability. Now we’re equivocating on that. We said that we were not going to make the mistake that Obama did by sending them a plane full of cash. I got to reconcile the numbers there,” he said.

“There’s a lot of work to be done to convince me that we’re on the right path,” Tillis added.

The Trump administration has conducted briefings with Senate allies such as Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) to highlight the benefits of the deal, such as the reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Moreno says that while Iran will benefit from the easing of sanctions on its oil exports, U.S. consumers will also benefit from lower fuel and fertilizer prices, which factor heavily into the cost of food and other goods and services.

“That helps us. Yes, of course it helps the Iranians also. It helps us lower energy prices,” he said.

Speaking on the Senate floor Wednesday evening, Moreno expressed his hope that the memorandum of understanding (MOU) would lead to a lasting agreement to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“We’re on the verge of a historic possibility in a world that is not under threat by Iran, where we don’t live in fear of an Iranian regime with a nuclear weapon,” he said.

But Republican critics of the deal aren’t taking much comfort in the prospect of lower oil and gas prices when Trump’s decision to start the conflict caused prices to spike upward in the first place.

West Texas Intermediate crude was priced at $67 a barrel before the conflict and surged up to $120 a barrel. It dropped to $76 a barrel on Wednesday.

“It’s an awful deal. It’s kind of JCPOA-plus,” Cassidy told The Hill, comparing the MOU to the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which former President Obama negotiated with Iran in 2015.

Trump withdrew from Obama’s Iran deal in May of 2018. At the time, the Trump administration said the Obama deal “enriched the Iranian regime and enabled its malign behavior.” The administration at the time also said it had delayed Iran’s “ability to pursue nuclear weapons” while “allowing it to preserve nuclear research and development.”

Cassidy said Trump’s new MOU with Iran “is going to leave Iran stronger, and it’s going to leave our allies weaker, and it may commit U.S. taxpayer dollars.”

The memorandum states the U.S. will work with “regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Cassidy said Iran now has leverage over the rest of the world through its demonstrated ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

“Now, Iran recognizes they can use their leverage over the Strait of Hormuz to extract from the other countries of the world whatever they want. And whereas before there was a credible threat that something would happen if they attempted to do so, I think that threat under this president seems to be exhausted,” he said.

Many Republican senators are skeptical that Iran will negotiate an end to its nuclear enrichment in good faith.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) warned last month that agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran would be a “disaster.”

“The rumored 60-day ceasefire — with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith — would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” he warned in a post on X.

Wicker on Wednesday declined to comment on the deal.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), one of Trump’s closest allies in the Senate, acknowledged Iran probably won’t agree to a deal to give up its nuclear enrichment program but argued it would be worth a try to reach a lasting deal to stop it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

“It opens up the strait, it continues the suspension of hostilities, it creates space to see if you can get a deal — I doubt if they can — on the nuclear program, but why not try?” Graham said.

“If you can find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear ambitions, go for it. The MOU puts that in place,” he added.

GOP senators say there will now be a lot of pressure on the Trump administration to come up with a strong agreement to end Iran’s nuclear program in the next 60 days.

“When you say this is on the ledger for Iran, certainly helping them, what we need to look at then is what is the corresponding win for the United States?” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). “I think we actually need to look at the agreement itself. I think we need to have it presented to us with an opportunity for us to ask those questions.”

Republican senators and a senior Senate GOP aide said they were not aware of any plan to brief the broader Senate on the details of the agreement and what to expect from the negotiations over the next 60 days.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5929430-trump-iran-deal-republican-backlash/

From what I've managed to gather the total of the money will come from sanction relief. Iranian funds were frozen all around the globe. This would release those funds. It's the same exact thing Obama did only Obama did in on a much smaller scale with a lot less cash.

'Help is on its way,' Trump tells Iranians as he urges them to keep protesting

12 January 2026

Iranian authorities will 'pay a big price', Trump says, as more than 2,000 killed in protest crackdown

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj691w2e840t

This seems to no longer be on the list.

As it pertains to the Strait of Hormuz it was open before the war and now it's going to be back to normal. So on the surface it appears that all he did there was help temporarily fix a situation he created in the first place. At least for 60 days supposedly.

Trump is agreeing for Iran to keep their missiles.

No agreement yet on recovering the enriched uranium.

And this is nothing more than a 60 day extension of the cease fire. Not a peace deal as Trump would like to make it sound.

but trump is the master negotiator

the world has never seen a deal as good as this one

Vance warns Israel: Don't fight "only ally" Trump on Iran deal

Vice President Vance on Thursday issued a blunt warning to members of the Israeli government who have been attacking the deal with Iran: President Trump is the only friend you have left, and it would be unwise to cross him.

Why it matters: Vance gave public voice to the consternation many on Trump's team have felt with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government over the past three months. He also issued a veiled threat that if Israel undermines the deal, U.S. military support could be impacted.

What he's saying: Asked about an Axios report that Netanyahu and his political allies were "fuming" over the deal, Vance said he'd read the story but hadn't experienced any fuming from Netanyahu — though he had been "bothered" by members of the Israeli cabinet attacking Trump over the deal.

"Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world's superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world," Vance said.

Vance added that Israel should consider that "two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars."

"The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the President of the U.S. needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in," Vance said.

The other side: Netanyahu has kept his frustrations with the deal private, but has been venting in private conversations, sources say.

Some senior members of Netanyahu's cabinet — including ultranationalist ministers Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, but also ministers from Netanyahu's Likud party — have attacked Trump over the deal. Pro-Netanyahu voices in the Israeli media have made personal attacks against Vance as well as Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

On Thursday, Netanyahu said the current situation requires the Israeli government to "remain calm, stand firmly on our security interests and at the same time preserve the important relationship with our American friends, who fought shoulder to shoulder alongside us, and for that we are deeply grateful."

At the same time Netanyahu said Israel will not withdraw from the territories it has occupied in southern Lebanon "as long as Israel's security needs demand it."

Friction point: The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding says the ceasefire includes the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel would have to withdraw from Lebanon under any final deal.

Vance said in a press conference on Thursday that the U.S. expects Hezbollah not to launch attacks against Israel, but also expects the Israelis "not to be going wild" in Lebanon.

"The Israelis have to respect this peace process...the president's expectation is that all of our friends, the Israelis, the Arabs in the region are gonna work together and actually see this deal to completion," he said.

A day earlier, Trump reiterated his criticism of Israel for knocking down "an apartment house every time you're looking for someone" in Lebanon.

The latest: After Vance's press conference, Trump posted on Truth Social encouraging "everyone in the Middle East Region" to allow the deal to unfold successfully. "We expect a complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel," he added.

https://www.axios.com/2026/06/18/vance-israel-only-ally-trump-iran-deal

Here is the deal for the memorandium

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Bloomberg
Read the 14-Point Draft Memorandum Between the US and Iran


Tue, June 16, 2026 at 6:09 PM EDT 4 min read


11.1k
(Bloomberg) -- The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war for good and putting strict new limits on Iran's nuclear program.



Below is the text of the 14-point draft memorandum, as seen by Bloomberg News.

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran's nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.

13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

Trump jokes he’ll blame Vance if Iran deal doesn’t work out

Comments:19
by Julia Manchester - 06/17/26 1:19 PM ET

Link copied
Play VideoSen. Bill Cassidy slams US-Iran deal, two days before the two sides are set to sign it

President Trump joked Wednesday that he will blame Vice President Vance if the preliminary deal with Iran falls through.

“I like that idea, sure,” Trump said when asked by Fox News’s Peter Doocy if his vice president would take the fall if the deal fails.

“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD. You better be careful, JD. He’s going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here,” he joked.

Asked why he wasn’t planning to attend the signing of the memorandum of understanding Friday, Trump said he might — but added he wasn’t sure it was “the kind of document I should be signing.”

Throughout the press conference, Trump sought to lower expectations over the durability of the preliminary agreement with Iran on Wednesday and left the door open to striking Iran if the country’s leadership does not honor the agreement.

“If they don’t honor the agreement, or some things aren’t even mentioned in the agreement, it’s a memorandum of understanding, but we have an understanding of certain things without writing it,” Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven press conference in Évian-les-Bains, France.

“If they don’t honor that, we’ll probably go back to bombing them until they honor it,” he continued, adding “it’s amazing what bombs can do.”

The remarks echoed comments from Trump earlier on Wednesday in which he threatened to bomb Iran “if they don’t behave.”

U.S. officials said details of the agreement would be publicly released this week, but according to copies of the 14-point agreement obtained by CNN and Bloomberg, the deal says Iran may get access to a $300 billion development fund if it meets commitments to scale back its nuclear program.

Iran says in the deal that it won’t pursue a nuclear weapon, as it has for years, but does not make specific commitments to stop nuclear enrichment or hand over weapons-grade uranium stockpiles.

Trump has tried to distance himself from the $300 billion fund after supporters of the war came out against the reported provision, saying the U.S. does not have plans to invest in Iran. However, Trump has not ruled out the idea of other entities investing in Iran.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5928503-trump-vance-iran-deal/

I think it will be in the verification process.

I also see this falling apart. I doubt that Iran will comply with the terms. We will see.
I don't have a problem with redevelopment funds except what redevelopment? We largely didn't touch non military targets.

I'm trying to hold my outrage until the Iranian nuclear program negotiations are spelled out. We were told that was really the main issue why this war was kicked off so if there are significant wins there, then one could argue this could've been worth it.

If redevelopment funds for the bombed nation are standard practice, then I guess that's how it goes. I just find it curious that Obama got dragged for paying Iran via unfreezing their financial assets, and now here we are doing the same AND paying them to rebuild AND facilitating their oil exports AND allowing for them to start collecting tolls for Hormuz (see post below this one).

That didn't take long....

https://www.newsweek.com/did-iran-just-get-tolls-for-strait-hormuz-12090257

If it actually works that way, that is why I said I doubt the deal holds.

If it was up to me I would have never entered a cease fire in the first place. Every war we have been in since WWII has been this half way crap. I would have bombed bridges to start. Then to power plants.

You do your best to spare civilians from the bombing, but hey, crap happens. Iran has been jerking us around for decades.

Just finish them.

It seems as though breaking the MOU deal is a two way street. IMO you have two allies that have no interest in achieving the same goal here. I don't believe that Israel has any intention of going along with or keeping the MOU that trump made unilaterally.......................................

Lebanon says Israeli strikes kill 18 as Israel says four soldiers killed by Hezbollah

Both Israel and Hezbollah have carried out strikes against each other since the agreement was announced, raising questions about the future of the truce between the US and Iran.

The US-Iran deal calls for an end to hostilities on all fronts, and for Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty to be respected.

However, Israel has said it has no intention of withdrawing its forces from Lebanon and has insisted that its conflict with Hezbollah is separate from the war on Iran.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23ymz1n9rmo

I'll wait for the dust to settle. But it appears to be heading to a place where this whole thing was a giant waste of time, money and lives. And where the agreement will be worse than the one in place that trump nixed.

Oh and we tanked the economy too. Not just in the USA. Oh and we pushed Western allies even further away.

Winning.

And people will stump for this and claim it was somehow a success.

Hush now. Iran is closed for renovations when completed there will be a ballroom built that will be called mar a largo trump memorial ballroom.

the art of deal by ayatollah.

Rule #1 don't go to war unless you can go "All in"

See Vietnam...

Trump was unwilling to remove the mine in the strait, so this was his only option...

Dumb... he cant win at tic-tac-toe let alone checkers...

US push to get Iran talks started hits an early bump. Vance stays at home, for now

ZURICH (AP) — The American push to quickly begin high-stakes talks with Iran hit a snag Friday, just days after the signing of an agreement that opens a two-month window for negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program and returning oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to prewar levels.

Iranian officials did not travel as planned to Switzerland, insisting that Israeli strikes on Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon must stop before the talks can take place, according to three regional officials and a person familiar with the matter. They were not authorized to publicly discuss the ongoing mediation to try to get the talks rescheduled and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The situation was fluid as Israel and Hezbollah agreed on Friday to renew their ceasefire, according to a U.S. official and regional officials. It remains to be seen whether that could help put the U.S.-Iran talks back on track.

In Washington, President Donald Trump lashed out once again in the midst of the intensified fighting in Lebanon and the stalled nuclear talks.

“We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did,” Trump wrote in a social media post Friday. “They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!”

Vance was ready for Swiss talks

Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, had been prepared to make an overnight flight to meet with his Iranian counterparts at a mountainside resort in the tiny Swiss village of Obbürgen and begin the technical talks.

Vance’s staff and a small group of journalists had gathered at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington in anticipation of the trip. Dozens of White House officials, advance staffers and more media were already in Switzerland.

Then the trip was called off — abruptly and for the time being.

A White House statement said Vance, tapped by Trump to lead the negotiations, decided to postpone his travel. It made no mention of the escalating violence in Lebanon.

“The logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable,” the statement said.

But, according to officials, the Iranians made clear to the White House that they had balked at starting the talks with Vance because of the Israeli action in Lebanon.

While Iranian officials and Vance did not make it to Switzerland Friday, a mediator from the Gulf country of Qatar found his way to the resort near Lucerne, Switzerland, where the U.S.-Iran talks are to be held. Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, met with the Swiss foreign minister, Ignazio Cassis.

Fighting in southern Lebanon intensifies

The fighting had intensified with at least 18 killed by Israeli airstrikes, while four Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, officials said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that Israel’s military would stay in a “security zone” of southern Lebanon as long as “Israel’s security needs require it.”

Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Iran insists Israel must withdraw from the large swath of southern Lebanon it is occupying, but the wording of the interim deal does not explicitly require that and only ensures Lebanon’s “territorial integrity.”

Hours before postponing his trip, Vance gave some indication of the state of flux when he told reporters at a White House briefing that he was uncertain if the talks were going to happen this weekend.

“We think these technical negotiations start sometime this weekend,” Vance said. “That’s still the plan. But that could change.”

Soon after Vance spoke to reporters, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, endorsed direct negotiations with the United States. His terse statement, read by state media, appeared to signal to the Islamic Republic’s leadership that it could move forward with a first round of talks.

“It is obvious that the face-to-face negotiations that will be held in the future will not mean accepting the enemy’s opinion,” Khamenei said.

The messaging seemed to give Khamenei, who was badly wounded in the U.S. strike on Feb. 28 that killed his father, some maneuverability. Hard-liners in the Iranian government, including Khamenei’s father, long opposed direct talks with the White House, especially after Trump, during his first term, pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration.

The meeting was initially supposed to be a signing ceremony

Vance was initially expected to go to Switzerland to sign the agreement at a formal ceremony. Instead, Trump signed the document Wednesday during a glitzy dinner at the Palace of Versailles with French President Emmanuel Macron. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, separately signed the agreement.

It says Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under rubble left by U.S. military strikes last year targeting Tehran’s key nuclear sites, must at minimum be diluted under international supervision.

It also says Iran shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons — a commitment Tehran has made previously. Other commitments remain to be worked out.

Iran believes it’s in a strong negotiating position

Iranians would be going into the talks with a measure of confidence after effectively shutting down the strait, causing global economic reverberations, said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities in Washington.

She said the U.S. is now “essentially trying to negotiate our way back to the prewar status quo.”

Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House think tank, said the “buoyant” Iranian leadership feels it has the upper hand. The endorsement of the talks by the Iranian supreme leader “sends a very strong signal domestically: ’We’re now on an equal footing with the U.S.’”

”‘Trump has gone from calling for regime change on Feb. 28 to this: Now they’re going to sit down with us directly and talk about these big issues,’” Quilliam said of the Iranians’ thinking. “So it’s intended more for the domestic audience, and telling them: ‘We are firmly in control of this. There can be no protests, no revolution: We are a new regime and we’re staying put.’”

Vance has to negotiate through political division

For Vance, a likely 2028 presidential contender, how the negotiations play out could have enormous ramifications for his political fortunes.

Vance’s skepticism of foreign wars was a core part of his political identity during his political rise, which included election as a U.S. senator. Now he finds himself the chief defender of negotiating an endgame to Trump’s conflict that Democrats have largely derided as a foolish gambit. Some hawkish Republicans are aghast that Trump is getting behind a settlement that could put billions of dollars into Iran’s coffers.

U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said aspects of the deal are “completely out of step” with Trump’s goals.

Trump fiercely criticized Obama for the 2015 nuclear agreement, which Trump argued failed to stop Tehran from advancing toward a weapon and funneled billions of dollars to the Islamic Republic. The Republican president exited the U.S. from the deal in 2018.

Trump has pushed back against comparisons to that earlier agreement, saying he had “negotiated from strength” after a major military campaign while asserting that Obama was paying the Iranians off and not receiving acquiescence.

Wicker, R-Miss., was particularly concerned about the $300 billion fund for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran mentioned in the 14-point agreement. Trump and Vance have said no U.S. taxpayer money would go to such a fund and it would not come without concessions and reforms by Tehran.

https://apnews.com/article/vance-trump-iran-switzerland-aee3839175b47b0b469879cfb835dce7