DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Browns Team Report: TSN

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Look, I know that this will be an unpopular opinion but we are in a position where we cannot afford to miss on picks this year. And Phil knows it. In the past, when we've had 7 full rounds, we could somewhat afford to tinker around with our Day 2 picks and "experiment" a bit. But this year is different.

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Being that I feel we have already hit 3 homeruns with our 1-3 picks, I can't agree with you. We drafted 2 Pro Bowlers already.... that's a pretty good first day.

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We still have needs to fill.

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As I said, Phil and his staff are working just as diligently as they normally would, but they're focusing on guys that most teams are considering afterthoughts. Maybe I put too much faith in Phil, but I believe he will make the most of our picks this year. His goal is to find two guys that can help this year and two more that can help in the future. And I bet he does just that. Perhaps, odds aren't in our favor, but the deck has never been stacked like this before. JMHO.

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Look, I know that this will be an unpopular opinion but we are in a position where we cannot afford to miss on picks this year. And Phil knows it. In the past, when we've had 7 full rounds, we could somewhat afford to tinker around with our Day 2 picks and "experiment" a bit.

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"Experiment"???

First and foremost, they don't screw around with picks. They line their boards up, then take guys as they come off the board in order with only a few exceptions. To suggest that they really focus on the first-day picks then start gambling with the 2nd-day picks because they matter less is totally false. The reality is that they focus just as hard on the 1st pick of the draft as they do with the 150th in terms of trying to take a guy that makes sense. Furthermore, the hit rate of 2nd-day selections is terribly low for the team that first selects those players. Of all of his drafts, this one is the LEAST important. I'm sure someone will say that because it's in the here-and-now that it's the most important, but in the big picture, his drafts with 1st-day selections were FAR more important.

I know where you're going. Still, this has suddenly become an urgent discussion about players in this draft that, for the most part, won't be doing much for us this year. All these 2nd-day picks are project guys, players we hope will be meaningful contriubtors in 2010.

Far more important than these players taken in the later rounds are the players we traded the picks for, but that's not this topic.

Look, all you have to do is look at the players that we've drafted over the last three years on the 2nd day of the draft to see just how UNIMPORTANT this draft really is for us in relation to drafts where we've had a set of 1st day selections.

Here are the names of the guys Savage has taken in the 4th round and later over the last three seasons:

McDonald, Pittman, Purcel, Steptoe, Sowells, Minter, Harrison, Vickers, Oshinowo, Hamilton, Perkins, McMillen, Speegle, Hoffman, Dunn.

Of those players, Vickers is starting, and McDonald is competing for a starting gig.

That's TWO out of FIFTEEN players, or for those keeping score at home, that's a 13% hit rate.

Those two players played very small roles in us becoming a winning team. The REAL factors were 1st round picks, great free agent acquisitions, a good trade here and there, and the stOOpidity of the Rats to try and sneak Anderson through waivers. The LEAST important factor were the contributions of the 4th round and later players of the past six years, unless you want to count a fullback, a long-snapper, and a MLB who's just been told to take a pay cut or GET cut.

Our average of successful hits on 4th round and later players is pretty much on par with the average of the rest of the league. If this draft is vital, and we hit on only 13% of our picks in those rounds, then we're doomed.

But that isn't the case, is it?

Prpl, I'd bet that if you went back through the history of the league over the last ten years and examined how many 4th round and later picks got starting gigs in their rookie year you'd probably change your opinion.

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And Phil knows it. In the past, when we've had 7 full rounds, we could somewhat afford to tinker around with our Day 2 picks and "experiment" a bit. But this year is different.

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I just want to note that you did forget Leon Williams in your listing there.

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Ok....I now see Toad followed my lead.

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Man, somebody here thinks he's the only poster around

I'm not saying that Leon Williams is a great player or a qualified starter. He can be a very good role player when you tell him exactly what he's supposed to do.

If we find a one-dimensional player in the fourth round (and it's possible) who can do only one thing well (ie. pass rusher) I'd pull the trigger. You have a much greater chance of finding a good role player than a good overall player in the fourth round.

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"Experiment"???

First and foremost, they don't screw around with picks. They line their boards up, then take guys as they come off the board in order with only a few exceptions. To suggest that they really focus on the first-day picks then start gambling with the 2nd-day picks because they matter less is totally false.

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All these 2nd-day picks are project guys, players we hope will be meaningful contriubtors in 2010.

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LOL!! Blast me for using the word 'experiment' and then turn around and call them 'project guys''? Right, I get you Toad. And I digress. I went out on a limb. My bad. You can list all the 4th round draft picks in the history of the NFL Draft and show me percentages all day long, but it won't change my mind that Phil is going to TRY to get the best bang for his buck with the first two guys he drafts on Sunday. I'm not saying the guy will be a starter or make it to the Pro Bowl. I'm hoping for that, but I never said that's what will happen. Heck, the guy might not even make the practice squad, but Phil has said he's looking for 2 guys to help us in 2008 and 2 guys who can help us down the road. And more often than not, when Phil says he's gonna do something, he does it. I just THINK (yes, that's all I'm going on) that Phil will try to find a gem or two. This is his Superbowl. I guess there's no use arguing about it now. We'll see what happens Sunday.

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LOL!! Blast me for using the word 'experiment' and then turn around and call them 'project guys''?

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I don't recall "blasting" you at all. I THOUGHT it was a friendly debate. I'll go back and delete my writings where I questioned your upbringings and your state of mind. My goodness Kard, we've posted around each other for a long time. Surely you'd recognize that I didn't "blast you."

All I questioned is your suggestion that the team would focus more in this drafts later rounds than usual just because they don't have any 1st day picks.

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I'm not saying the guy will be a starter or make it to the Pro Bowl. I'm hoping for that, but I never said that's what will happen.

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No, you didn't. But then again, I didn't argue that point with you. I think I was debating something Prpl said.

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I just THINK (yes, that's all I'm going on) that Phil will try to find a gem or two. This is his Superbowl. I guess there's no use arguing about it now.

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Why not? Debating is what this board is mostly about.

Kard, it's not as though I questions your parentage by suggesting someone in your family tree deviated from conventional practice and strayed to a branch that included mating rituals with things that run on all fours.

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Kard, it's not as though I questions your parentage by suggesting someone in your family tree deviated from conventional practice and strayed to a branch that included mating rituals with things that run on all fours.

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Nothin' but tha dawg in me.

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All I questioned is your suggestion that the team would focus more in this drafts later rounds than usual just because they don't have any 1st day picks.

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Queston: You sound resigned to not doing anything on the first day. What would it take to change yor mind?

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Well, trying to follow the path that is the wandering stream of consciousness of various posters thoughts is tough. It's not as though I'm resigned to anything as much as I was arguing against the belief that this is a very important draft for Savage.

Having gone there, I would fully expect the organization to stand a better chance of finding a "diamond in the rough" than usual because they don't have to focus on the top 50 players or so. But the reality of the situation is that our draft grade won't be measured by who we pick, but how the defensive line plays this year. That's the most important thing.

As for Savage's comments, well, let me just say that I wouldn't expect to read the following:

"Tony, we hope we can get lucky this year, and can pluck a guy or two that can help us down the road. The bottom part of the draft is a crapshoot, so keep your fingers crossed."

I do know this: If Savage decides to spend more time on the latter parts of the draft next year, I'm gonna put some you-know-what in a brown bag, put it on his doorstep, ring the doorbell, and run, because the first three rounds are always far more important than the 4th rounds and later. He's paying good lip service here, but........

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But the reality of the situation is that our draft grade won't be measured by who we pick, but how the defensive line plays this year. That's the most important thing.

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