DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Addressing three common misperceptions in the NFL

It is often stated 'round these parts that there is not enough 'Football Talk' going on and that we should spend more time addressing real issues that pertain to Pure Football instead of endless QB debates, media myths, and whether or not we should sign another nobody DB just to add depth. So I thought I'd post this article, which I found to be pretty interesting and could spark some good debate about topics that pertain to Pure Football. Enjoy!

Myth busters: Addressing three common misperceptions in the NFL
by Mike Lombardi

Nothing drives me crazier than watching an NFL game on television and hearing announcers trot out tired clichés when describing the action. What's worse -- many of these commonly used phrases aren't even true. Here are three NFL misperceptions I'd like to clear up:

You Must Establish The Run Early In The Game
The first comment that makes me hit the mute button is when announcers start talking about establishing the running game and the virtues of how the running game will set up the entire offensive playbook. Hogwash. Is anyone paying attention to what is going on in the NFL today? The running game in the first half does not set up anything other then field goal attempts and potentially low-scoring games. In fact, the team that ran the ball in the first half the most last season, the Minnesota Vikings, failed to make the playoffs. No. 2 was the Oakland Raiders, another non-playoff team. Who is behind this "establish the running game early" myth?

Football is very complicated and complex. It's a chess match each and every week. "They have a very smart coaching staff and we have a very smart coaching staff," New York Jets wide receiver Laveranues Coles said prior to opening last season against the Patriots. "They [the coaches] basically use us as chess pieces. How they position us to play this game, that's the main thing now. Whoever can make the adjustments the best and the fastest will probably have the edge."

Coles clearly understands today's NFL and he's well aware that the chess pieces are moving through the air now. Teams are more proficient throwing the ball and are establishing the pass earlier in the game. And when you throw the ball in the first half, you can score points and build a lead, giving your team an excellent chance to win.

One of the masters of the pro football version of chess was the late Bill Walsh. He built the West Coast offense and many teams in the NFL run a variation of his well-designed attack. But the West Coast offense is really a philosophy, not a system of plays. It's based on throwing the ball early in the game, building a lead, then running the ball to keep the lead. Walsh wanted to take short passes and use the skill and quickness of the wideouts to run with the ball, instead of trying to design running plays that would gain the NFL average of 4.0 yards per attempt.

Teams that build the lead at the half and have the greatest first half point differential are the teams that understand the philosophy of the West Coast. When you make a team play from behind, their margin of error shrinks and a potentially fatal, game-costing mistake will soon occur. That's why all of Walsh's teams had a complementary defense that could rush the passer and force turnovers. He wanted a dynamic pass rusher, not for the sacks, but for the pressure to get the ball out of the quarterback's hand earlier, thus creating turnovers.

The NFL is a passing league and teams that come out and try to find balance with their play-calling in the first half are doomed to fail. You have to throw to score in the NFL. Check out these eye-opening stats of five playoff teams from last season:


Team NFL rank for runs called in first half
NFL rank for runs called in second half
Seattle 31st 13th
Green Bay 29th 19th
Indianapolis 28th 7th
Dallas 27th 11th
New England 26th 14th


These statistics are exactly what the West Coast offense is all about.

During game weeks, the Wednesday and Thursday practices throughout the NFL feature a period called 9-on-7. It's a drill that features nine offensive players against seven defensive players to work exclusively on the run aspect of the game. The drill is quickly becoming obsolete. Teams are rarely in two backs in the back field and very few teams will play with a seven-man defensive box. The most compelling runs in the NFL right now are nickel runs, or space runs that create problems for the defense. The 9-on-7 periods of practice in the NFL will only help a team determine and develop toughness; the teams that practice their space runs each week are the successful ones.

So when watching your team play this coming season, look for more passes in the first half, look for more spread runs and hopefully look for more first-half points.

Shut-Down Corners Are The Key To Good Pass Defense
No disrespect to any of the great athletes that play cornerback in the NFL, but if an offensive line provides good pass protection, no one can keep a wide receiver from making a play. Much like no one is going to hit Nolan Ryan when his fastball is measuring over 100 mph, no corner can stop a wideout from getting open if he has to cover him for a long time. No matter how great a corner may play, if the pass rush is not putting pressure on the quarterback, then the defensive back is in trouble.

Now, there are some corners who are clearly better than others, but the term "shut-down" does not apply to the NFL. Because of recent rule changes and the NFL being a pass-friendly league, the corner position is almost impossible to play at a shut-down level.

Every season we hear about how Green Bay defensive backs Al Harris and Charles Woodson are shut-down corners. And trust me, both are very good at their jobs, but when the Giants offensive line dominated the Packers front in the playoffs, Harris and Woodson looked like they were no longer shutting down anyone, allowing the Giants to throw for 243 yards. When the Giants offensive tackles could block the rushers of the Packers, this placed the corners in a perilous position.

San Francisco made a bold financial statement last year, giving Nate Clements an eight-year, $80 million contract and then proceeded to have the 10th worse pass defense in the NFL in 2007. It's not Clements' fault the 49ers pass defense failed. The fact they finished 21st in the NFL with only 31 sacks had more to do with it than the actual play of Clements. But people expect when you give someone $80 million, you are getting a shut-down corner. Problem is they don't exist.

Minnesota clearly did the right thing this offseason. Instead of listening to the cries of many that they needed to improve their pass defense, the Vikings signed defensive end Jared Allen. Allen will singlehandedly improve a porous unit that allowed 4,500 yards in the air last season. Defensive backs are nice to have, but a special pass rusher is what can make a defense shine.

The Turnover Battle Is The Key To Football
"Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game." How many times have you heard someone -- a player, a coach, a TV broadcaster -- say that? There's no denying that protecting the ball is vital to a team's success. But do you think anyone has told this to the field goal kicker?

In my book, a missed field goal is a turnover. You gave the ball away, you did not score any points and, in fact, the ball is placed seven yards from the original line of scrimmage. That reads like a turnover to me. So the next time you see a team's turnover takeaway ratio on your TV screen, make sure they have added in missed field goals. The ball was definitely "turned over."

The Giants entered the playoffs with a minus-9 ratio in turnover/takeaway. Making the playoffs would be impossible with such a ratio, let alone winning the Super Bowl. But the Giants' opponents missed eight field goals last year, and even though New York missed four of its own, taking account of that stat still reduced their overall total to a minus-5.

Examine each and every turnover that is happening. Someone needs to explain to me why the desperation throws at the end of each half count in the turnover column. I have been around a few quarterbacks in my career who refused to throw the desperation throw at the end of the half because it would impact their passer rating.

What matters most is where the turnovers occur and what a team does with the ball after the turnover. Be careful to quote the turnover/takeaway argument without examining the missed field goal chart.

si.com

I can see many football traditionalists getting angry with this article.

But I see it, and I think Savage sees it too. I've been saying for a long time I've been a proponent of making us a pass-first team. Last year we passed to set up the run, not vice versa.

Defensively? I think willing to ship off Leigh Bodden for Shaun Rogers says a lot about the DL vs. corner debate. The Giants proved how valuable a good DL is as well.

It wouldn't surprise me next year if we draft another tweener with our first rounder.

I have to disagree with the turnover argument though.

Interesting takes.

Perhaps the cliche "You Must Establish The Run Early In The Game" should be changed to "You Must Be Able To Run The Ball When You Need To". It's clearly a passing league now, but the need to run the ball effectively is still very important to the success of teams. NE, Jags, Colts, Pit, Browns, and the Giants all ran the ball effectively at critical times last season. As to whether the run game was consistently established early is clearly debatable.

Shut-Down Corners Are The Key To Good Pass Defense - I don't know if I hear that one bandied about so much. It is clear and very much in the consciousness of players, coaches, fans and the media that a good pass rush is "The Key" to a good pass defense. Again, look at the successful teams, in particular the way the Giants handled Brady in the Superbowl. They kept one of the most prolific passers unsettled and off balance almost the entire game by applying pressure and not allowing him to get comfortable.

The Turnover Battle Is The Key To Football - I don't think pointing out that missed field goals are turnovers makes the point that the turnover battle isn't the key to football. It is clearly difficult to win a game when you turn the ball over 4,5 or 6 times in a game. Teams have overcome the turnover deficit to win before, but it is rare. Adding missed field goals into the equation would probably only strengthen the argument.

Another huge misconception in my opinion is that going for it on fourth down is a risk. So often you hear an annoucer say, after a third and one gains no yardage, "now they have to punt." BS. Going for it on fourth and short is actually safer than punting. In fact, going for it on ALL fourth downs is statistically better than punting on every fourth down (with the exception of field goal range). Gregg Easterbrook, who does TMQ, did a great analysis on it last year. Drives me nuts when we punt on fourth and short.

LOL Not that I disagree with much of what's said,, But you have to remember who this writer is,,

According to Bernie Kosar in that interview with Channel 8 this week, it's this Mike Lombardi that he blames for most of the Browns problems in the 90's that eventually lead to the team leaving town for Baltimore...

Just an FYI for ya all...

A similar read from 3 years ago that speaks of one of the mentionedmyths, turnovers:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Turnovers, early deficits lead to losses
Garber

By Greg Garber
ESPN.com
(Archive)

Updated: November 30, 2005, 11:50 AM ET



Vince Lombardi, the celebrated coach of the Green Bay Packers whose name adorns the sterling Super Bowl trophy, said that statistics are for losers. Point taken.

Still, culled from the most recent evidence -- the NFL's 2003 and 2004 regular-season statistics -- here are five leading sins of the game that are indisputably (did we mention amazingly?) and undeniably true, more often than not. Upon further review, notice that they are all, like the myriad creatures of the universe, interconnected.

Here, then, is the key to the matrix you never knew existed. The percentage in parenthesis refers to the probability of losing when committing that particular sin.

SINS AND MYTHS
There are a bunch of clichés and truisms tied to the NFL. After crunching some numbers, we figured out which ones are deadly sins … and which are myths.
• Truisms and untruths
• Five deadly sins
• Big-time myths
Sin No. 1: Trailing after the first quarter (75 percent)

While so much emphasis is placed on the fourth quarter and a team's finishing power, it's really how you start the game that matters. Teams that found themselves trailing after the first quarter lost a staggering 75 percent of their games in '03-04.

If you're pressed for time, this will eliminate the need to watch the last three quarters.

Seriously, teams that start slowly invariably lose. The 3-8 Arizona Cardinals have trailed at the end of the first quarter in nine of 11 games. They are 2-7 in those games (22 percent), a figure almost identical with the 23 percent achieved (if that's the word for it) over the course of the 2003 season.

By the same token, teams that set the tone early wind up prevailing -- three times out of four. Take the Indianapolis Colts, for example. The 11-0 Colts have trailed only once after the first quarter. Somehow, they recovered from a 17-0 deficit in spectacular fashion against the St. Louis Rams in Week 7 to win 45-28.

"Is that number right?" asked Insider Rick Spielman, who spent five seasons as the Dolphins' general manager. "That's unbelievable.

"Still, it makes sense. If you're playing with a lead, you can play solid defense and run the ball and control the clock. Your odds of winning will always be better when you can control the clock."

In Week 15 of the 2003 season, all 15 teams that led after one quarter won the game.

Said Green, "I guess that means the old cliché about halftime adjustments isn't true. After the first 15 minutes, the game is essentially over."

Sin No. 2: Losing the turnover battle (81 percent)

This is a tried-and-true truism of the NFL -- what's surprising is the gravity of the number. Lose the turnover battle and you'll lose four games out of five.

Steve McNair

AP Photo/John Russell

Steve McNair's fumble led to a touchdown for the Raiders in Week 8.

Take the Tennessee Titans. While the Titans are 3-2 when they have fewer turnovers than their opponent, they are a dead, solid 0-5 when they have more turnovers. Tennessee committed 13 turnovers in those five games, while opposing teams lost the ball a total of only two times. That kind of hole is difficult to escape.

During the first four weeks of the 2004 season, teams that won the turnover battle went a collective 43-6, a winning 87.8 percent of games.

It's common sense, really. When you lose the ball, you lose a chance to score, while the opposition receives that same opportunity. At worst, it can be a 14-point swing. At best, it's usually a loss of 40 yards in field position. One turnover, quite often, can swing a game.

In Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Chicago Bears scored their only touchdown after Alex Brown hit quarterback Chris Simms and induced him to fumble on his own 1-yard line. The ensuing one-yard scoring pass from Kyle Orton to John Gilmore held up as the difference in the 13-10 victory.

Good teams almost always tend to force more turnovers than they yield.

Of the nine top teams in turnover margin -- Cincinnati has the league's best figure, plus-20 -- only one isn't at least three games over .500. And the 4-7 Buffalo Bills (plus-8) are actually still in playoff contention in the anemic AFC East.

Sin No. 3: Allowing a 100-yard runner (75 percent)

On the five occasions the Rams (5-6) have allowed a 100-yard rusher, they are 1-4.

The season began uneventfully for the Rams, who didn't allow a 100-yard runner in the first three games. Then, all hell broke loose: In three successive games, Tiki Barber (24 carries, 128 yards, 1 TD), Shaun Alexander (25-119, 2 TDs) and Edgerrin James (23-143, 3 TDs) sliced up the Rams' defense. Needless to say, all three games resulted in losses.

Although Fred Taylor ran wild on St. Louis -- carrying 22 times for 165 yards -- the Rams managed to hold off Jacksonville 24-21 in Week 8 to even their record at 4-4. But, after their bye week, the Rams reverted to form in Week 10. Alexander savaged the Rams for 165 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries, and the Seahawks won another game on their way to the NFC's best record so far (9-2).

In 2004, teams that featured a 100-yard rusher had a collective winning record every single week. During Weeks 6-9, the overall record was an astounding 32-1.

Last year, Patriots running back Corey Dillon cleared 100 yards nine times during the regular season. New England won eight of those games; only a four-interception game by Tom Brady (see Sin No. 2) cost them a 29-28 decision at Miami. The Patriots, you might recall, won the Super Bowl and finished with a 17-2 record. This year Dillon has been injured and has produced only one 100-yard game. The Patriots are 6-5 and limping toward the playoffs.

Producing a 100-yard runner usually means that team has actually had the luxury of methodically handing the ball off. And thatsuggests the team is playing with a lead, which, in turn, means that passing is not a necessity.

As former Ohio State coach Woody Hayes used to say, three things can happen when you throw the ball -- and two of them are bad. A turnover (see Sin No. 2) can be deadly and sometimes produce an early hole (see Sin No. 1). A dropped ball counts for nothing and also stops the clock (see Sin. No. 5). And then there is the sack, which leads us to…

Sin No. 4: Allowing more sacks (70 percent)

When legendary Rams defensive end David "Deacon" Jones coined the term "sack" -- as in, sacking and pillaging a rival village -- he saw savage tackling of the quarterback as a means to an end. What he didn't know was that, far more often than not, allowing your quarterback to be sacked more than your opponent's means The End.

David Carr

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Don't be surprised to see quarterback David Carr land in Seattle.

Look no further than poor, unfortunate David Carr of the Houston Texans, the poster child of sackitis.

In 54 career starts, Carr has been sacked a ludicrous 190 times (more than 3.5 per game). Houston's record in those games is 15-39 (.278).

In his rookie season, he was decked 76 times -- an NFL record that is being threatened by this year's Texans. After a brutal stretch of three games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Tennessee -- when Carr was sacked a total of 22 times -- the dubious record appeared in jeopardy. But now, through 11 games, with Carr suffering a league-high 50 sacks, the projection is 73. Chances are, based on more recent results, the number will wind up in the high 60s.

The correlation between sacks allowed and losing is a powerful one. The Texans are 1-10, and in their only win (19-16 over the Browns) each quarterback was sacked twice.

This statistic, upon reflection, fits into the matrix. The flip side of a 100-yard runner is a team desperate to catch up. When teams are forced to abandon the run, opposing defenses can rush the passer with abandon. This usually results in increased sacks and all the bad things that come with them.

Teams that allowed more sacks in Week 10 in 2003 were 0-11; in Week 9 of 2004 they were 0-12.

Good teams, as you might expect, protect their quarterbacks. Is it a coincidence that the 11-0 Colts have allowed Peyton Manning to be sacked only nine times -- easily the league's lowest total (among full-time starting quarterbacks). Meanwhile, the Patriots' Brady has been decked 12 times in the last five games, two of them losses.

It is worth noting, too, that the Texans won their only game by avoiding Sins. No. 2 and No. 3 and, instructively, Sin No. 5.

Sin No. 5: Losing time of possession (67 percent)

Possession, they say, is nine-tenths of the law. But in today's NFL you'll have to settle for seven-tenths. OK, to split hairs, 6.7-tenths.

The Buccaneers, by today's air-it-out standards, are a conservative team. Watching them, you might think it's still 1950. Head coach Jon Gruden drafted Cadillac Williams in the first round so, along with fullback Mike Alstott, he could keep pounding teams into submission while the defense did its muscular job.

So far, it's worked out pretty well for the Bucs. They have outscored opponents by a paltry 20 points, but at 7-4 they've won three more games than they've lost. Their narrow margin of error can be seen in the time-of-possession statistics. In 11 games, they have held the ball an average of 2 minutes and 40 seconds longer than opponents.

The Bucs are 5-2 when they win time of possession; 2-2 when they don't. Sunday's 13-10 loss to Chicago underlines the fragile dynamic. The Bears possessed the ball for all of six more seconds than the Bucs -- and won.

Scan the 2005 team numbers and you'll find the usual suspects at the top of the list.

Dallas (33:30) leads the NFL with Kansas City (32:26) and Denver (32:21) second and third, respectively. Those teams -- all in playoff contention -- are guided by old-school coaches Bill Parcells, Dick Vermeil and Mike Shanahan, who have always employed a run-first, pass-second philosophy.

There's one other thing they all have in common: Super Bowl rings.

Greg Garber is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And the list of 3 "myths" from three years ago per the linked article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2241159

Quote:

---

The Turnover Battle Is The Key To Football
"Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game." How many times have you heard someone -- a player, a coach, a TV broadcaster -- say that? There's no denying that protecting the ball is vital to a team's success. But do you think anyone has told this to the field goal kicker?

---

A missed FG is a lost scoring opportunity, but it is not a turnover. If so, then each time a team gives back the ball on downs is a turnover.

Along with that Sins article, there was also a Myth article.... both were archived on the old board and moved here and are in the Archives here


https://www.dawgtalkers.net/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3102&an=0&page=0#Post3102

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3106&an=0&page=0#Post3106

Quote:

---

Along with that Sins article, there was also a Myth article....

---

I know....I spoke of it and linked it in my post already.

That's what I get for skimming

I've been saying for a long time that you've got to be able to pass the ball first and foremost. If you get behind, you can't really RUN yourself back into the game.

Traditionalists would just love to watch a 14 to 3 game where we ran for 175 yds. But it's just not the way the game has evolved. We were good when Bernie was throwing the ball all over the place...and we were one game and out when we had 2 thousand yard rushers.

It's great to be able to pass AND run...but AT LEAST you've gotta be able to pass.

Agree.

Running shortens the field for the defense, they now only need to focus on the area around the LoS, where passing covers all open field, short, medium and long. A team that can not pass is likely doomed. But a team that CAN run, increases their chances when leading late in the game.

Quote:

---

You Must Establish The Run Early In The Game

---

running is the safest play thats for sure....but imo the best offense is the one that can do it all.....and i'm not talking "all-madden" team here....if a defense comes out stacking the box because you are a run first team....then you pass....if they come out to prevent the big play....you run....

its not rocket science imo....

if you took all the trickery and scheming out of football, and played a base offense vs a base defense it would come down to talent...whos better...thats who would win...

problems come for teams when they are weak in an area....take the browns of early expansion....they didn't have an oline, so they couldn't run, or pass deep.....that left quick passes most of the time....we were one dimensional due to talent, so teams just scheme against that dimension, and we have nothing else....

if a team has a great oline and crappy qb then they can run the ball all day, but a team can stack the box, making it harder.....this type of team isn't gonna be able to come from behind well because they can't pass.....see the ravens with bolier....

at team that can only pass well, will get blitzed from different places by players that don't fear the run....


the best type of offense imo is one that can adapt to whats in front of them on defense....the wco does this the best imo..as it streches the defense horizontally and laterally...quick passes are basically runs...and it causes the defense to spread out...and this opens up runs to the inside or passes over the top....

its not about being able to run the ball...its about moving it....scoring....once you have a lead, there comes a time when the other team has to become one dimensional (pass) then you have them.....add to that running the ball when you have it to kill the clock, and they are in big trouble.....

Quote:

---

Shut-Down Corners Are The Key To Good Pass Defense

---

good corners certainly help....they enable you to do more with your safeties....you can bring them into the box....you can blitz them.....but you better get to the qb...

here the front 7 is more important...but good corners can make it a front 8 or 9.....

Quote:

---

The Turnover Battle Is The Key To Football

---

in general this is true imo.....especially if they get points....you never wanna give a team a short field, or points when you were about to get them..

i would be willing to bet that the giants were the exception last year...if you turn the ball over, but stop them on defense, then you lost nothing but time and field position....if you o is good enough you just burn more time to score....this also takes time from them...and if you have a lead your sitting pretty....

Quote:

---

that three things can happen when you pass, and two of them are bad.

---

That's a rather outdated view. There are four things that can happen when you pass and two of them are good.

1. Completion
2. Incompletion
3. Interception
4. Pass Interference giving you the ball at the spot of the foul.

Oh, well crap, you might as well count offensive pass interference and illegal contact, holding, face masks, fans running on the field, meteors, and tsunamis...

Nah, fans running on the field, meteors, and tsunamis don't affect where the ball is spotted for the next play.

Illegal Contact, Holding and Face Masks can happen on running plays too, so that's moot.

Offensive PI.... ok, ya got me there ... but trying to draw a Def. PI call is a tactic used.