DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Numbers Don't Lie: Andra Davis

Numbers Don't Lie: Andra Davis

By Doug Farrar
FootballOutsiders.com
Posted Jul 12, 2008


You hear it all over: Andra Davis makes a lot of tackles, but they're all downfield. We asked our friends at FootballOutsiders.com about this, and Doug Farrar come back with an in-depth analysis of statistics for Browns inside linebackers Andra Davis, Leon Williams, and D'Qwell Jackson. The numbers may surprise...

When analyzing specific defensive players, the problem with statistics like tackles and sacks is that they’re not context-dependent. In other words, a defender gets the same credit for a tackle two yards downfield whether he’s making that tackle on first-and-ten or third and two. It’s the same on offense – should a running back get the same credit for a four-yard run on second-and-twelve that he does on third-and-three?

At Football Outsiders, it’s our goal to bring as much in-game context to those base stats as possible. To that end, over the last few years, we have been assembling official play-by-play data for the things that it can reveal. In addition, between out staff and an army of volunteers, we’ve been charting every NFL game for three seasons. This allows us to get a much better handle on things like offensive formations, quarterback actions, the involvement of specific defenders, incomplete passes, and blown blocks. The goal is to bring a new level of statistical analysis to a game that didn’t start recording quarterback sacks until 1982. We’re making inroads, and the defensive stats we’ve invented are the insightful byproducts.

For the purposes of this article, we’ll be using these FO stats:

Plays: The total number of defensive plays in which a player is involved, This includes tackles, pass deflections, interceptions, fumbles forced, and fumble recoveries.

Percentage of Team Plays: The percentage of team plays involving this defender.

Defeats: The total number of plays which prevent an offense from gains first down yardage on third or fourth down, stop the offense behind the line of scrimmage, or result in a fumble (regardless of which team recovers) r interception.

Stop Rate -- The percentage of all plays that are stops; i.e., the number of plays in which a defense prevents a success, based on 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third down. We’ll show this for overall and for Run Stops.

Average Yards – The average number of yards gained by the offense when this player is credited with making the play. We’ll do this for overall and against the run.

Linebackers have a few specific stats, which are proprietary and created by our game charting data. There are Targets (the number of pass plays in which the player was listed in coverage), Success Rate (the percentage of plays in which passing successes were prevented – same numbers per down as Stop Rate), and Adjusted Yards per Pass (the average number of yards gained on plays on which this defender was in coverage, adjusted for the quality of the receiver covered). These stats can be found in Pro Football Prospectus 2008, our season preview book that was just released this week (Plug! Plug!), and we’re gong to focus more on run stops because we’re talking about inside guys.

Opponent adjustment is a big part of what we do, and the commanding principle behind our DVOA and DYAR stats. Obviously, it’s more impressive to shut Randy Moss down then, say, Arnaz Battle or Keary Colbert. Plugging a hole that Adrian Peterson’s running through is going to get you far more “ooohs” and “ahhhs” than blowing out Shaun Alexander, who’s been shutting himself down for two years.

So, that’s the preamble. Let’s get specific, on the request of Art Bietz and all who follow him, and talk about three Cleveland inside linebackers. We’re going to compare and contrast with other inside linebackers who play in 3-4 defenses, to get as clear a read as possible. Rankings will eliminate all linebackers who play primarily in 4-3 sets. This leaves us with 22 primary (full-time starting) inside linebackers.

Plays/Pct (NFL Leader: Ray Lewis, 132)
Andra Davis – 70 (Rank: 15, 8.3%)
D’Qwell Jackson – 105 (Rank: 4, 14.2%)
Leon Williams – 83 (Rank: 13, 9.8%)

Stop Rate (NFL leader: Bart Scott, 72%)
Andra Davis – 66% (Rank: 3)
D’Qwell Jackson – 58% (Rank: 17)
Leon Williams – 60% (Rank: 16)

Run Stop Rate (NFL Leader: Bart Scott, 82%)
Andra Davis – 76% (Rank: 3)
D’Qwell Jackson – 52% (Rank: 15)
Leon Williams – 51% (Rank: 16)

Average Yards per Play (NFL Leader: Tully Banta-Cain, 2.5)
Andra Davis – 3.4 (Rank: 8)
D’Qwell Jackson – 5.5 (Rank: 21)
Leon Williams – 5.2 (Rank: 18)

Average Yards per Run (NFL Leader: Bart Scott, 1.8)
Andra Davis – 2.1 (Rank: 3)
D’Qwell Jackson – 4.3 (Rank: 18)
Leon Williams – 3.1 (Rank: 11)

Defeats (NFL Leader: James Farrior, 26)
Andra Davis – 15 (Rank: 13)
D’Qwell Jackson – 14 (Rank: 12)
Leon Williams – 11 (Rank: 14)

Now, here’s the problem with defensive stats above and beyond even the ones you just read: Unlike in baseball, there’s no way to completely isolate the performance of a single linebacker form the performances of those around him. So, if Cleveland’s interior defensive line was a problem in 2007 (it was, judging by Phil Savage’s desire to spend eleventy billion dollars to upgrade it), that’s going to affect the number of plays in which Cleveland’s linebackers are overwhelmed by offensive linemen or other blockers. Conversely, in a 3-4 defense, if you have a Shawne Merriman or DeMarcus Ware (Kamerion Wimbley seems to be on the precipice of excellence) grabbing double teams as a matter of offensive survival, that opens things up for those behind and around him.

Clearly, Andra Davis is the best of the three linebackers detailed here from a run-stopping perspective, but remember – so many things go into these numbers if you want to know what they really mean. The hope in Cleveland is that, one year after completely redefining his offensive line (which I wrote about here), Savage will do the same on the other side of the ball. If that’s the case, all three of these players could see their totals looking better.

Check out Football Outsiders and Pro Football Prospectus 2008 for more on the Browns and the NFL, and feel free to shoot me a note at doug_at_footballoutsiders.com if you have any questions.


http://cle.scout.com/2/768780.html

You can't isolate the player, so what is the point of these? I wonder how much Andra's lack of filling the hole and the lack of a defensive line effect these numbers.

Wow, that is some in depth doo doo.

Clevelands offense, has to play against the top LBs in the division, based on these stats. Farrior, Scott, Lewis. That should show how good of an offense Cleveland really has.

So, how did these guys decide to do 3 years of research on Clevelands 3 inside LBs. Are they fans of the Browns or hired by Davis' agent?

Those numbers are a little surprising but do help make the case that AD is not nearly as bad as some would have us think. That said, his playing time is decreasing year to year and it's clear (at least to me) the team intends to supplant him sometime soon. I'm very excited to see how the LBs (and the D in general) step up this year with the revamped line. Facing Dallas game one, with their excellent O-line, RBs and passing game may be an indicator of how we'll fare this season. I can't wait!

These statistics are not only misleading, they portend to be accurate. Numbers don't lie?!? WOW. Only from a company that makes their money on numbers. LMFAO

It doesn't show a multitude of things, not the least of which was that player's responsibility.

This is one of the most useless things I've ever read on this board. No offense to the person who posted it (because they didn't write it).

I disagree. To completely disregard these stats seems somewhat ignorant to me, that or it doesn't fit your agenda. Do I think his last season was a bit of a disappointment in terms of health and tackles? Yes, but I think his numbers were down due to several things such as terrible NT, and better lbers next to him that can make some plays. I think these stats show that he is a pretty good lb. The leaders of many of the stats are considered very good linebackers in the NFL so I think they show at least some validity.

I think the board has a bit of a bandwagon approach to some things at times to pour on a guy because he made a mistake in the game, and it turn other people agree with the statement, and before you know it everyone hates on one player without any real substance to the claim.

Two years ago the boards were saying that he was the most underrated lber in the league and snubbed for pro bowls. Two years later the guy is a bum who should be cut. Something doesn't add up there. Anyway you slice it I think Andra Davis is a very good lber and the Browns are lucky to have him and his leadership on the team. It hasn't been voted a team captain the last 4 years for nothing.

I do think that the rubber band is just swinging back the other direction.

I don't think he's as good as we thought he was 2 years ago and he was overpaid, but I don't think he's as bad as some make him out to be now.

That is bound to make a few people crazy.

Good read...I agree with the analysis.

Actually, Davis was slower because the coaching staff asked him to add some weight. The DL was terrible and the staff thought if he added weight, he would be better at shedding blocks that the DL couldn't absorb. Davis has lost the extra weight, so it will be interesting to see if he plays better. He's not nearly as bad as many claim on here.

I understand what you are saying. I was just pointing out what has slowed Davis down and that it's possible that he will not be as slow with the weight off. I'm not offering excuses, just possible reasons.

We gotta get Bart Scott.

Didn't Andra just get forced to have his contract restructured?

I just post the stories as I see em'. Personally, I think that Davis looked better than the rest (Ben Taylor, Matt Stewart, etc) a few years back because he was the least stinky of the stinkiest. Don't think he's putrid but I also don't think he's that good.

I agree. I think it's a good thing that we're considering him to be middle of the road. It shows that our team as a whole has progressed.

I don't think Andra Davis is that bad but he's definitely not that good. The guys who wrote this article probably didn't even watch many games with him in them. Andra bites hard on fakes and it kills us. Last season he seemed to miss some tackles, but in the past he's been a pretty solid tackler IMO and he's a decent pass rusher as well as pass defender. His ability to rush the QB is something that really isn't talked about that much, he can be effective.

I think losing weight should help him, and I think he's a starting caliber ILB, but he's definitely nothing special at all. In years past he had so many tackles because nobody else would.

And as is known, tackle is a misleading stat.

For example, last year all the Celtics big-men were injured. Guess who suddenly was getting +10 rebounds every game, Paul Pierce. Why, because he was the best rebounder we had, nobody else was getting them. With Ben Taylor and Kevin Bentley, Andra Davis had to make all those tackles. He's a better LB than those two also.

But as someone said before, he's a great backup. IMO, an average player. He'll probably start this year, and I'm hoping D'Qwell really improves because I don't have much faith in Dra. Of course, all our LBs' jobs should be much easier now that we have a D-Line

Quote:

---

There are plenty of teams with worse starting ILB. Dolphins, Bills, KC, DET just off the top of my head

---

Those arent exactly the type of teams we are trying to keep pace with. That right there killed what you were saying for me.


Andra Davis might be the softest MLB in the league. I think he is good to very good coverage backer but I dont like what I see against the run. The DL additions might help immensely but I still dont think he brings enough thump. AD has been our starting MLB for 7 seasons or so???? Can anybody name a single instance when he filled the whole and completely blew somebody up? I cant and it drives me nuts. How can a starting MLB for the cleveland browns have no highlight reel slobberknockers? I think that speaks volumes for his game. I can think of a ton of huge hits from Eddie Johnson over his tenure in Cleveland. AD not a one (not saying he hasnt i just dont remember anything "special")

I read all of that, and now my head hurts...

Subjective analysis. Objective analysis.. who knows. Interesting however. It shows, depending on your point of view, that Davis isn't as bad as he was thought to be.

Perhaps those that were saying he's only as good as the line in front of him were correct..

But then I have to ask, why do the Browns seem to be doing everything then can to improve that position? What do they know that these stats don't make clear?

I mean, you don't take a guy like Davis, and ask him to take a pay cut, 1.5 years after giving him a new contract if there wasn't serious doubts about ability and performence or maybe health.. Line or no line issue.

I'm confused again.. someone help me

Ahhh,, I feel much better now

I already said I like the guy. He's a great guy. But on the field he's the reincarnation of Wali Rainer.

When Savage said that:

"In the past, when we'd go to hit someone in the hole, guys would fall forward for a first down," Savage said. "Hopefully, Beau gives us some knock-back ability."

he meant that we don't have that on our team right now. D'Qwell who is highly overrated right now as a 34ILB is primarily a speed backer and Davis is slow and carries a small stick. Not a great combo there.

When you see statistics that show Andra Davis as one of the Top 3 ILBs in many categories think...does that translate to what I see when I watch the games? No it doesn't. That's one of the reasons why I know those stats are bogus. The other is that they're almost non-sensical and don't hold for enough variables to make them valid.

There are so many things going on in a play against so many different formations with so many down and distances with so many situational instances with so many game scores that statistics can't possibly account. Period.

Over time some things even out to show decent approximations but still to hold them as rock solid is false.

You bring up a stat I can show you why it's warped. It's simple.

Quote:

---

"In the past, when we'd go to hit someone in the hole, guys would fall forward for a first down," Savage said. "Hopefully, Beau gives us some knock-back ability."

---

Good point. Hopefully Beau or some other ILB can come in and play that role for us. D'Qwell is speedy and can catch guys going to the sidelines. But a punishing run stuffer up the middle is what is needed to compliment him. Truthfully it is D'Qwell who should compliment this linebacker.

But yeah, overrated or not, D'Qwell does well in pass coverage and is a speedy linebacker to get to the runningbacks. With our beefed up D-Line I expect Andra and D'Qwell to perform better because they should get some real help in one of their biggest issues (being blocked out of the play). The extra meat on the D-Line may allow our LBs to excel, especially Jackson.

Davis helps our team out a lot IMO, and never gets much credit for doing so. I also love his locker room presence. He is a leader on this team for sure.

Here is my only issue with Football Outsiders and KC Joyner...the creation of statistical categories. Some of these things are nice, but my feeling is that they can manipulate too much of it.

Numbers may not lie but it's all how you use them..
I don't need numbers to tell me what my eyes see..
AD is not a force at all..he has terrible instincts as has been pointed out for several years on this board ..
I'm not wavering from my stance on him..

This is silly..so now that these guys has put these numbers together , posters will now change their opinion on this?
Some will, because they're easily swayed..but not me.

Instead of compiling that from a entire season , why didn't they do it game to game..just like when QB's get their ratings broken down game to game?
If that was done..U all might be a bit dismayed..

AD might have one or two 10+ tackle games then go down the next...it's never the same consistantly and he is part of the problem.

Hmmm I wonder if people who are going to beat their chest and say AD is not that bad.. can answer something..remember the Bills game?
Did he have a game like that anytime during the season???
Interesting ..

The Browns gave up 2,072 yards rushing last year..a average of 4.5 and a average of 129.5 yards per game..
IF HE were making those stops EVERY GAME..that would change things..
Plus those rankings don't tell his individual stats..

He had 67 tackles he was credited with..and 16 of those were assisted tackles(usually the ones he jumps on when the play is about over.. lol)
Conversely..Bodden and DQ had 76 /75 credited tackles..(the CB had more than the MLB) and DQ had 26 assisted tackles out of his 75..
Wow I guess I can play the numbers game too..

Maybe you guys need to check this out..

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6027/situational;_y...enU6xqyFmDTchBf.uLYF
If the link doesn't work go to Yahoo sports go..to NFL ..search Andra Davis..and pull up his situational stats..

I agree with you in spirit. I think some of these numbers are hokey, no matter who they were talking about. I just think that there is too much of a movement in football to quantify EVERYTHING in numbers. Just watch the games, it gives you the answers you need!

Didn't know this kind of stst chopping block comparison was available. This was very kewl and quite telling.
Great post. I am not normally a numbereating stathead, but this was very good reading. My thanks are large!

I hear ya, it's tough for a lot of people on the board though unfortunately because they don't get to watch the games due to location and being too young for the bar.

I watch every game at the bar (on my personal TV that they give me, hehe), therefore my opinion is pretty close to being my own. Some people can't do that, and they pick and choose what other people are saying and use it as their own.

That's why I don't care for the stats, they mean nothing to me. Especially when it comes down to Andra Davis. This argument's gone on for awhile though (may be 3 or more years), those that say, "look at all those tackles" and then those that say that he only has to make so many because our D is always on the field, everybody else sucks, and it doesn't matter because it's not on the line of scrimmage.

I mean if you keep running the ball at Jackson's side, and he keeps stopping you. At some point you will stop running it toward his area, he will still make tackles, but the other guys you attack might make more.

Kind of like a CB who doesn't get INTs because QBs don't throw the ball near them

I think for the most part the whole Andra Davis debate is just...odd. The detractors claim him to be purely horrible, can't stop the run or the pass, has no instincts, and has farts that smell like dead rabbits, plus he worships Satan.

The supporters on the other side tend to be a bit more positive, saying he's a great 3-4 ILB, etc, the next Ted Johnson, etc.

I think in general the detractors don't give him enough credit, and the supporters tend to be a bit too positive.

I think what couples all of this is Leon Williams. Don't get me wrong, Leon has some upside and has been a solid sub, BUT a lot of people forget how big of a disappointment he was at Miami. He was a part of the reason that Coker lost so much support.

In the end, I think Davis does lose his job to Bell this year, but that won't mean a ton. Romeo used a deep ILB rotation his last two seasons in New England, where Roman Phifer, Tedy Bruschi, & Matt Chatham were all heavily rotated in. As long as Bell can handle his assignments, he'll be built into certain packages and their will be a four man rotation at ILB.

"Wow, that is some in depth doo doo."

All I know is this...

If it's 4th and inches, with the game on the line... I would prefer to have Andra Davis in there as one of my MLB's...

He's a keeper on this team, and with our new front 3... He will shine even more... Unfortunately, he won't be here for much longer though. I do hope I'm wrong.

I'll agree that I'd rather have him in than Williams, but I don't think he's better than DJ. I think he's just different.

I cant remember a game where he made a play to win the game.

However it doesn't matter what he did already, it matters what he's going to do next.

This is why preseason is going to be that much more exciting. We get to see what all that extra beef up front is going to do to our defense. Alot of questions we have right now will be answered.