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I'm so tired of seeing everyone. That includes people on this board, experts, random people at bars talking about how tough our schedule is going to be and how hard it is going to be to win 10 games this year. Maybe it will be, but I did a little research. And here's my question. How do you know the schedule is going to be so tough? Here's my point...
Starting off the 2007 season, we were supposed to have a pretty tough schedule with opponents having a . 508 winning percentage from 2006. Our strength of schedule this year is supposed to be .547.
Our strength of schedule last year ended up being only .429 (and that's with the 16-0 Patriots on the schedule last year).... Which is .079 lower than what it was "supposed" to be. Let's say the same hold true this year, our strength of schedule goes from .547 to .468.
Now maybe our schedule is going to be tougher this year, maybe it won't be. But my point is, with as fast at things change in the NFL, no one knows for sure how tough our schedule is going to be.
For example, the Redskins looked terrible last night. Do you think they are the same team this year that they were last year? I don't.
I see only about 3 teams (Giants, Colts, Cowboys) that I can honestly say are flat out better than us, the rest of them could take a step back, and make our schedule look easy, just like in 2007.
Anyone else tired of the strength of schedule talk, too?
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I think its ridiculous as well. I mean, strength of schedule garbage is predicated on a team performance last year along with their improvements on paper.
But in the end, you don't really know how good or bad a team is going to be until you get into the heart of the season. Pair that with the possibilities of injuries and then you have to admit that any strength of schedule analysis is speculative at best.
I wish to wash my Irish wristwatch......
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I totally agree.
Instead of SOS, it should be called the SOSBOLYRAG (Strength of schedule based on last years rosters and games). SOS means very little at this point. Each team is older, younger, better, worse, more or less injured and some having new coaches.
We all talk of the parity in the NFL and how a team can easily go from 2-14 to 14-2 with practically the same roster. Then some forget those facts when talking SOS for the upcoming season. Silly.
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/Punchsmack/punch.gif) “...Iguodala to Curry, back to Iguodala, up for the layup! Oh! Blocked by James! LeBron James with the rejection!”
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There's a difference between last year's SOS and this year's.
Last year I thought we had many beatable teams, despite many saying our schedule was so tough. This year, the teams we play have traditionally been tough and have been tough for years. While they may take steps up or down, they're not pushovers. They never are.
I think our roster stacks up with the very best of them, but every week is going to be a crapshoot. I'm not scared of any team but I understand the realities.
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I enjoy saying SOSBOLYRAG. Sos-bolly-rag. It's fun, try it. ...and I agree that the strength of schedule is overrated, but it's the best pre-season measuring tool that's out there (that I know of). Unfortunately, just as it could end up being easier for us than planned, it could also be harder. All I know is GO BROWNIES. 
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I see how they come up with the SOS and all, but what it never takes into account is that there are always teams every year that exceed expectations and those that don't meet expectations.
It's impossible for anyone to predict with any degree of certainty which teams will go which way.. thus making the SOS arguement meaningless..
UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR..
After it's all said and done, we can look back and see that we indeed had a tough schedule or that we didn't..
I've been saying this for about 2 months and I keep getting my head handed to me by those "in the know"! Drives me crazy.
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Is that Logan Tom in your sig? To the point of this thread. The SOS is what it is, the best indicator that the NFL has at this point in the year. Acutally, right now the Browns SOS is .500 based on games played to date  In the end it doesn't matter what the SOS is if we win games. We all know the schedule looks tough, the season won't be easy, and we need to play good football all year long - simple as that.
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Quote:
There's a difference between last year's SOS and this year's.
Last year I thought we had many beatable teams, despite many saying our schedule was so tough. This year, the teams we play have traditionally been tough and have been tough for years. While they may take steps up or down, they're not pushovers. They never are.
I think our roster stacks up with the very best of them, but every week is going to be a crapshoot. I'm not scared of any team but I understand the realities.
Completely healthy, I would agree. And that's what now makes it a crapshoot. We will be shooting our crap out there and hoping for the best. That's all the reality we have at this point.
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The problem being, we only beat one team last year that played above .500. Now how many teams on our schedule do you feel fall into that category "this year"? It is what it is. Whether you're sick of it or not. 
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Not to mention the ones we LOST to that were under .500,.... 
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Quote:
We all know the schedule looks tough, the season won't be easy, and we need to play good football all year long - simple as that.
I guess that's the point.. the season LOOKS tough based on what? Last years results and last years results are not an accurate indicator of what this year will bring..
But you are right, it's the only measure available and that's why they use it.. I just don't put much store in it really..
Anyone see the Skins/Giants game last night.. How does the strenght of schedule take into account the loss of Osi Umenyiora for the Giants or the addition of Jason Taylor to the Redskins? It doesn't.. But sure as I'm sitting here, the Giants didn't look as dominating to me last night as they did when Umenyiora was playing against us in preseason.
Are they still as tough as they were?
#GMSTRONG
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Daniel Patrick Moynahan
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Damanshot
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I love the optimism and I'm pumped up for the season. But at some point, reality must enter into the equasion IMO
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Me too,...we'll know in a short amount of time, like at about 4:05 EST Sunday.
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Oh yes. Those things ARE entered into the equasion. That's why the Giants were only favored by three and a half points. How much did they win by again?
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Quote:
The problem being, we only beat one team last year that played above .500.
Now how many teams on our schedule do you feel fall into that category "this year"?
It is what it is. Whether you're sick of it or not.
The problem with your theory is, you are assuming none of those teams are going to be worse, but you are also assuming that we are going to be no better.
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Good point, but that also assumes that no scheduled opponents have gotten better ? Yes, it's now a new season,...pre-season is over. But you think the big dogs at the networks aren't rethinking giving the Browns 5 prime-times this year ??
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Good point, but that also assumes that no scheduled opponents have gotten better ?
That's my point. Don't assume anything. Last season is over. Pre-season is over. Nothing matters. The only thing that matters right now is Dallas. Dallas could go 16-0 this year, or 0-16. no one knows. That's why no one should assume we have a difficult schedule. If we know for sure our schedule is going to be so hard, we might as well look at the draft now. How about Beanie Wells since we'll be in the top 5 draft picks since we have such a tough schedule? 
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Because Beanie is hurt,... 
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I'm with you there. And whoever pointed out our record against teams over .500 last year, that's a weak argument. How many of those teams would have made it to .500 if they could have beat us. I remember people thinking the Browns were going to get spanked every week. What happened there? Didn't happen did it. Ravens were supposed to own us, didn't happen. Seattle, nope didn't think so. Sure we stole a game from Baltimore, but lets not forget how we got robbed against Arizona and that crap time out by Oakland after Dawson hit the game winning field goal.
I say if you want to think the Browns don't have the talent to win 10 or 11 games and your more concerned about looking realistic in the name of saving face, then why even watch? If I bought what alot of you were selling I would think this was an expansion team. Please tell me how our roster doesn't compare to the top teams. And don't give me some crap about our weak secondary, that hasn't been proven yet.
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I don't need to save face,...the Browns do.
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Quote:
I love the optimism and I'm pumped up for the season. But at some point, reality must enter into the equasion IMO
Who says? 
I'm not saying that we should throw out the SOS and that it doesn't matter and we can beat anyone.. No No,, that's not at all what I'm talking about. My thinking doesn't have anything to do with optimism or pessimism..
I just don't think the SOS can be relied upon as the end all be all predictor that some think it is.
And I'd feel the same way if our SOS was weak looking.
#GMSTRONG
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Daniel Patrick Moynahan
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They don't have anything to prove to you or anybody. They just have to go play. They proved they can hang with anyone. So many people are looking at the preseason as the gauge. I will guarantee had they went 3-1 in the preseason people wouldn't be so negative. People do realize those games don't count right? They do realize we were with out 7-8 starters in every game after the Giants game, which by the way was more of a freakish thing than a tell all. If you dont believe me go watch it again. Jamal fumbling at the 1 for a giant touch down, thats a 14 point swing right there. A kick return for a touchdown. 2 poor plays by Wright doesn't sell me that the secondary is so terrible. Neither does Clowneys couple catches in the FIRST PRESEASON game.
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Good point. SOS aside, I'm more concerned with our health.
If we were a Marine rifle squad, I'd have to tell the CO to get someone else for tonite's patrol,.....
Just trying to keep my sense of humor,....this is the NFL. The only thing that counts is performance.
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Quote:
The problem being, we only beat one team last year that played above .500.
Now how many teams on our schedule do you feel fall into that category "this year"?
It is what it is. Whether you're sick of it or not.
Pittsburgh only beat two teams (one being us).
It doesn't mean a thing, we are a different team playing different teams.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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I think the SOS calculation would be much more relevant if they used the last 3 years average. Teams can bounce up or down from year to year but the consistant teams stay about the same for better or worse.
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They don't have anything to prove to you or anybody. They just have to go play.
And if they do that--and do it well--they'll have saved face. All I'm saying is this road is not as paved as nicely as some would like to believe. The schedule IS tougher than last year's by any measure, and again, as I said up top, that aside, we are banged up.
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Quote:
I'm with you there. And whoever pointed out our record against teams over .500 last year, that's a weak argument. How many of those teams would have made it to .500 if they could have beat us.
It wasn't me, just throwing out stats since so many people have opinions on this...I'm not sure really what you were asking, so I won't try to answer it...
Teams we played over .500 were Pit (lost twice) who ended up 10-6, New England (lost) who ended up 13-0, Seattle (won) who ended up 10-6.
Teams we played at .500 were Houston (won) who ended up 8-8 and Arizona (won) who ended up 8-8.
Teams we played under .500 were:
Cincy (won, lost) ended up at 7-9
Oakland (lost) ended up 4-12
Baltimore (won twice) ended up 5-11.
Miami (won) ended up 1-15
St Louis (won) ended up 3-13
NYJ (won) ended up 4-12
Buffalo (won) ended up 7-9
SF (won) ended up 5-11
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Well, believe it or not, the amount of games you win in any give year depends not only on the strength of your team but on the strength of the opponent you play.
If you played New England 16 times a season, you're record wouldn't be very good and as a result, your win-loss record wouldn't be any reflection of the actual strength of your team, other than to indicate that you were not as good as NE.
Conversely, if you played San Francisco 16 times a year, your may win all 16 games, but again, your win-loss record would have very little reflection on the actual strength of your team and would only prove you were better than SF.
All strength of schedule tries to do is put some value on the fact that some teams potentially have harder schedules than other. I think you can clearly see that the strenght of schedule would be a valid consideration if you played NE 16 times a year versus a team who played SF 16 times a year.
Now, as the season progresses, things clearly change. Teams that were considered to be good aren't, bad teams become good teams and the actual strength of your schedule becomes increasingly less relevant.
But, I get the impression that alot of people on this board don't appreciate either of these considerations. Strength of schedule is a meaningful thing, but perhaps not as meaningful as some portray it to be, especially as the season progresses.
That said, to ignore the fact that our team is facing much stiffer competition this year than last year and pretending that our win-loss record is in no way related to the strength of the teams you play, is extremely short-sighted.
**Insert clever signature here attributed to some historical figure that sounds interesting but has been taken completely out of context.
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Pittsburgh only beat two teams (one being us).
That's a good point. On top of that, don't you have to take into account the fact that if you beat a team, it becomes less likely that said team will finish with 9 or more wins? But while I don't completely buy the SOS stuff, I do have to respect that the NFC East is perenially a pretty tough division.
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What about the Bears of 2006? If you played them 16 times, you might lose all 16. But, if you played them 16 times in 2007, you might win all 16. That's my point.
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Well, believe it or not, the amount of games you win in any give year depends not only on the strength of your team but on the strength of the opponent you play.
Your entire post was and is dead on. Your "oponents" can make or break your year.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Heh... heh... SOS gives us all something to talk/argue about until the bullets start flying for real and the games start counting. Even then, so much happens DURING the season that pre-season projections and SOS analyses are generally irrelevant come mid-season (if not sooner). In the end, we're all guessing when it comes to who got better or worse during the off-season and absolutely nobody knows what will happen once the regular season starts (particularly injury-wise). Consequently, I don't get too worked-up one way or the other about our schedule. It is what it is and, IMO, if we're going to get to the "Promised Land," we're going to have to beat at least nine of the teams the NFL schedulers put in our way.
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I just looked at the schedule again,....the only teams I see that PROBABLY won't be better than last year are the Bengals and the Ravens---teams that you have to beat anyway because they are in your division, AND against whom you can expect to have to battle, again, because they are division foes.
Now last night's game leaves the 'Skins very suspect,....OK. Giants, Boys, Eagles----all good teams.
Colts, Jags, Texans, Tennessee, might all be "worse?" Don't think so. Indy might slide a little, but not much. The Titans have Fisher--that alone makes 'em good on paper.
That leaves Denver and Buffalo to "beat up on."
We're banged up,....
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Don't forget 1 of Tenn. losses last yr was 35-6 to the Bungles. Of course they did beat the Colts in the Sorgie game.
nordawg
The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
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Can you tell me which of these teams you feel have suffered a "major downgrade" over last season Top? Steelers Cowboys Giants ( lost Shockey and two DL players ) But looked impressive last night. Jacksonville Denver Colts Eagles ( with a healthy McNabb ) I'm hearing what you're saying. But please explain how "much different" these teams are from last year? You can say it doesn't matter, but we have to face these teams. And I can't see where any of them took such a "huge step backwards". And in reality, the right side of the OL has looked horid without Tucker. Our DB's aren't looking good and the pressure just so far in pre-season has indicated DA is "less than stellar" under the heat. So I'm all about you "believing as you do", if there is something of substance that backs it up. I agree with you to the point that "teams change from year to year". But we aren't playing the other 31 teams in the NFL. Here's what I percieve as "the strongest teams" on our schedule. So let's "look at them". Please tell me where we have "improved so much" and they have "regressed so much" that you feel the playing field is so even. You see, those great quotes like, "Football games are played on the field, not on paper" is a great pre-game warm up speech. I'm sure Coach B has that one in his playbook somewhere. But you use that speech to try to motivate your players when they are overmatched in hopes of getting the most out of them. In reality, if you weren't overmatched, there would be no reason for such "speeches" that tells your team to "forget about how good they really are" in the first place.  So since we know for the most part who our toughest opposition is, can we dispense with the generalisations and tell everyone where and how you draw your conclusions based on OUR schedule? Thanks in advance.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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you make a great point...
we have a tough schedule now, on paper, but in december, we could not even be close... you don't really know...
washington looked decent last night... not great, decent...
the giants looked tough, but not perfect, and not as good as they looked against us a few weeks ago, people put too much stock into what happens in the preseason...
dallas by all means will be good, as will indy
most likely jax, as well as pittsburgh
but tennesee isn't guaranteed to be strong, nor is houston
and while philly is one of the most consistent teams in the league, if mcnabb goes down, they are quite average...
so basically, i think we have some guaranteed tough games... pit (x2), jax, indy, nyg, dal
the rest are pretty much a coin flip in terms of whether they will be as good or bad as projected...
and people often forget... despite some inconsistencies with our qb, and a bad defense, we were in every single game last year after the debacle that was week one
everyone is calling for dallas to blow the lids off us, but last year new england didn't even blow us out, they scored a trash touchdown in the final seconds, otherwise, they beat us by 10, not bad for a team that went on to go 16-0 en route to the supe bowl
and honestly, that is one huge reason why we are on nationally televised games this year...
win or lose, the browns are going to take it down to the wire, it's good tv.
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Pittsburgh only beat two teams (one being us).
I like your math.
So we had "one win" against teams above .500 and they had three.
How many games did we miss winning the division by again?
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
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Pit, I get your point. But like I said, things change so fast in the NFL. Tell me this... How different was last years Bears team on paper than the one that went to the Super Bowl the year before?
Games aren't played on paper.
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I think the SOS calculation would be much more relevant if they used the last 3 years average
I would think that the opposite is true.. over a three year period of time, teams can turn over 50% of thier players,, some more, some less. and with the change in personnel, only the uniforms remain the same... So a three year average wouldn't do a thing.
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I'm just going to call it a tossup and get out of the optimism/pessimism business.
We're banged up, BAD. And that's not on paper.
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