DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum BCS - My Take On How Things Will Shake Out

Despite what all the OSU fans would say - HONESTLY - what do you think you would say if the shoe was on the other foot? If the scoreboard said Michigan by three.

I bet each and every Ohio State fan forgets the value of The Game and calls for a rematch. <img src="/images/graemlins/rolleyes1.gif" alt="" />

Your looking at it your way, and I am looking at it mine.

In this system, you have to go with the facts. After all the smoke clears, if USC wins out, The will have lost one game to an unranked team. Michigan will have one loss to the top ranked team in country.
I would agree with the notion that a loss should mean a drop in rank, but, I don't think it's fair to apply the "loss=drop" logic in this equation. I take this stance because if both teams end with one loss, the only way, in my mind, to differentiate who is better is to examine both losses, and then both teams. So, here it goes:

USC'S loss
-Came on the road
-Was at the hands of a team that is currently 7-4 &ranked third in the Pac 10
-The team that USC lost to has scored a total of 285 points
-The team that USC lost to has surrendered 213 points


Michigan's loss
-Came on the road
-Was at the hands of a team that is currently 12-0
-The team that Michigan lost to has scored a total of 436 points
-The team that Michigan lost to has surrendered 125 points.

Now lets examine USC, and Michigan:

USC has scored 311 points
USC has surrendered 142 points A differential of 169
USC has beaten 3 teams that are currently ranked in the top 25. They are ranked 21,19, and 17. If USC beats Notre Dame, that would give them one victory over a top 10 ranked team.

Michigan has scored 401 points
Michigan has surrendered 202 points a differential of 199
Michigan has played two teams that are currently in the top 25, those being sixth ranked Notre Dame, and first ranked Ohio State.

Summary:
Michigan's loss came at the hands of a much better opponent

USC has played a harder schedule than Michigan

USC has a 30 point advantage when it comes to points scored/surrendered. -Keep in mind that 39 of Michigan's points scored came against Ohio State. 42 of the points that Michigan surrendered cam against Ohio State.

Michigan beat Notre Dame 47-21.- That's a 26 point differential.

In order for my opinion to change, USC would have to beat Notre Dame by 26 points + 10 additional points to make up for the loss to Oregon State.

So, if USC beats Notre Dame by 36, then yes, they should be in the National Championship

and we thought previous years bcs polls were messed up...

The best bet for the bcs is problaly USC... even though their sole loss so far has been to an unranked team.. but lets look at others..

Michigan... The ole you've had your chance deal. but lets look further..

Notre Dame.. lost to Michigan.. 47-21

though I think Florida will problaly be the most deserving.. arkansas lost to USC. though How tested is Florida?

But then there's a big "what if" that will make this picture even more muddier... imagine if USC beats ND and Florida and Arkansas lose their last games and to put the nail in the coffin.....USC loses to UCLA in their final game.. Who goes in then? that only puts Michigan, wisconsin and rutgers as the only 1 loss teams in the rankings.. oh wait.. why not Boise State? <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

<img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" />

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

Just kidding. It's going to be either USC or Michigan. USC will have to beat Notre Dame handily, and then beat UCLA. If not, Michigan goes.

Well I can't speak for every Ohio State Fan but I was saying all last week that if we (tOSU) don't win the game we don't deserve the National Title game. So yes, I can honestly say that if the shoe was on the other foot I would be saying "Ok, Let's go win the Rose Bowl".

If ticking everyone off is the ideal solution, wouldn't sending undefeated Boise State be a better idea ?? <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/naughtydevil.gif" alt="" />

You're wrong, Phil. OSU fans on here said that of OSU lost, they shouldn't be in the championship game before the game was played. I was one of them. I said it before Tressell....if you can't win your conference in this format, you shouldn't be playing for a championship.

OoooRahJoice,

In your opinion, in the most simplistic terms that you can use; what would your criteria be for selection of the two top teams to play in the BCS Championship Game?

For example: #1 - Win/Loss Record
#2 - Strength of Schedule
#3 - Conference

Any tie-breakers you can think of.

Just be interested in your thoughts on how you would pick the final 2. Thanks. <img src="/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif" alt="" />

As a ND fan, I'm asking this to everyone... I know it's not likely, but if somehow my Irish could pull out a W against USC, is there a chance of playing in a national title game? I am just curious because im a HUGE ND fan, but im not overly familiar with the rankings system.

Here's my opinion--throw out the computer rankings, they destabilize the whole process. The voters have spoken--they have Michigan # 3. So my

Step One -- is where are you ranked ??

Step Two -- a no brainer, W/L record amongst the 6 major conference champions. But, no special rules for Boise State OR Notre Dame. This works because if the Irish are 12-0, where would they be ranked ?? Where is Boise currently ranked,....??

Step Three -- must be a conference champ or co-champ

Step Four -- no two teams from the same conference in the Title game. Period. That's a Jim Tressel rule I am on public record on this board that I would not whine about had Michigan won, despite inferences to the contrary from non-Buckeye fans.

Step Five -- still have a tie ?? Use the AP poll,

SOS anymore is a weak predictor--I could beat you up all day long about Michigan playing Ball State or USC losing to Oregon State. What about USC crushing the 'Hogs -- maybe that's what makes them so dang good now,...??Look at Ohio State's "cupcakes." We ALL have them,...throw out SOS (part of the get rid of the computer argument thereby,...)

I'm sure this input will raise a lot of questions from all of the other posters on here who are more knowledgeable, so if I forgot something, or it needs clarification, whiz away. <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

web page

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Expert: Michigan a temporary No. 2
If USC wins out, Trojans are likely opponent for OSU; Florida also has a shot

Monday, November 20, 2006
Ken Gordon
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

If Michigan players and coaches were thrilled with the Bowl Championship Series standings released last night, they shouldn?t be. Though the Wolverines stayed at No. 2 after their 42-39 loss to Ohio State on Saturday, BCS analyst Jerry Palm said they need help if they hope to get a rematch in the Jan. 8 title game.
"It says Michigan is No. 2, but don?t be deceived," said Palm, who runs the collegebcs.com Web site. "Michigan?s position is decorative at the moment; they are an honorary No. 2."

Southern California, Palm said, is the real No. 2.

Palm said if USC beats Notre Dame this week and UCLA on Dec. 2, the Trojans will be OSU?s opponent in Glendale, Ariz.

"If (USC) wins out, they will be the highest-rated one-loss team in the computers," Palm said. "And with the poll margins the way they are, Michigan has no chance."

Florida is the third and final team with a realistic chance to meet the Buckeyes, Palm said.

By clinching a Pacific-10 champion- ship with a win over California on Saturday, Southern Cal (9-1) jumped one spot to second in both the USA Today and Harris Interactive polls, leapfrogging the Wolverines (11-1).

Michigan stayed No. 2 in the BCS by claiming second among computer rankings. But the margins are slim.

That news likely will disappoint Mike Hart, the Wolverines tailback who on Saturday guaranteed a different outcome if the two rivals met again.

"I think we?re both the top teams in the country, regardless of what anybody says," Hart said. "On a neutral site, it would be a big game. If I won (Saturday), I?d probably be like, ?No, I don?t want a rematch.? Any time you lose, you want a rematch against that team."

Buckeyes offensive tackle Kirk Barton said he didn?t think a team coming off a loss deserved to play for a national championship.

OSU coach Jim Tressel stayed away from that debate. He said he thought Michigan was a "very deserving team," but he preferred to let the final two weeks play out.

Florida, No. 4 in the BCS, needs a Notre Dame victory over Southern Cal. The Gators would get a big boost by beating No. 6 Arkansas in the Southeastern Conference championship game on Dec. 2.

Palm doesn?t believe Notre Dame (10-1) can climb past Michigan because the Wolverines pounded the Irish 47-21 in September.

OSU is 9-11-1 against Southern Cal, including 3-4 in bowl games, all Rose Bowls. The teams have not met since a 35-26 Trojans victory in the 1990 regular season.

The Buckeyes have never played Florida.

The win Saturday was OSU?s 40 th over Michigan in 103 tries, with 57 losses and six ties.

OSU is 3-0 in BCS games, all played in the Phoenix area. This season will be the first time the Buckeyes will play in the new University of Phoenix Stadium (capacity 72,886) in Glendale, rather than in Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.

BCS title game president John Junker and other bowl officials clad in yellow blazers followed Tressel into the interview room Saturday night in Ohio Stadium. They can?t officially extend the Buckeyes an invitation until the BCS pairings are announced Dec. 3.

No matter who OSU ends up playing, it will be the third time the Buckeyes will face a No. 2-ranked team this season; OSU already owns wins over Texas on Sept. 9 and Michigan.

No top-ranked team has played three games against No. 2 in a season.

That?s why the Buckeyes think they?re on the brink of something huge, running back Antonio Pittman said, even if they have to wait seven weeks to make it happen.

"If you win them all," he said, "you?d probably have to say you were the best team in college football history."

Dispatch reporter Tim May contributed to this story.

kgordon@dispatch.com

After watching the game again, I'm changing my tune. The Buckeyes were in control of that game after the opening drive. Michigan put up points, but the Buckeyes answered every time. It wasn't just a matter of Michigan being a play, a call, a field advantage or just one of anything else away from winning that game. The OSU D stepped up everytime they absolutely had to, and there's no doubt in my mind they would have again if the onside kick were recovered. Michigan had no chance of winning that game.

To give Michigan a rematch if USC, Florida or Arkansas wins out would take away from the importance of a great game that was already played. If these three teams all falter, then and only then should Michigan be given the rematch.

Notre Dame should absolutely be out of the equation.

"Yeah,...What he said,...!!" Awesome post,....too many people putting too many credentials in the final score. Mike Hart said it best, yes, the outcome would be different,....and I don't think Mikey would like it much.

I seriously believe a huge ND win "could" vault them in the Coaches and Harris polls to # 2, maybe 3. But the computers don't like ND much this year,...the math is just not gonna get them to # 2. JMO. You're looking at a rematch with Michigan at this point.

Easier said when you don't have to face it.

I still think everyone would be crowing about how they were the best team in the country and deserve a shot. But we'll never know. <img src="/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif" alt="" />

You are wrong on this one. Not many people would think the Buckeyes were the best team in the country if they lost a home game and didn't even win a league title.

Actually, we were facing it. When discussing it before the Buckeyes won, most on here said if the Buckeyes lost they shouldn't get a rematch. How is that "not facing" it? Some of us can be objective. Look at the other side before the game when Nas was already claiming Michigan deserved a rematch if they lost but OSU wouldn't if they did. Now, THAT'S bias. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Yes, we never will know because Ohio State got it done,....they should be rewarded for it,...The Rematch penalizes them for winning.

The difference is Ohio State was ranked # 1 as the best team in the country and then went out and proved it. This was a tough year for Wisconsin and Michigan, and Ohio State to have all been in the same conference. Same for the SEC--they just didn't have that "survivor" at the end. This is the way it is, sometimes your team wins and sometimes they don't. The system is what it is.

Because Michigan lost by 3 points on the road. Had OSU lost they would have lost WITH the home field advantage.

I hear you barking there 'Dawg (pun intended <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />) about home and road wins,....I don't put much stock in that---Michigan came in here and did a great job--that's what you're supposed to do. (i.e., Texas HERE last year and Ohio State in Austin this)

I know, im not saying Michigan should be there in the NC game, Id like to see how the rest of the season plays out first, but I do believe with Michigan losing by 3 they would have more of a reason to play again than if OSU had lost by 3. JMO, but there is still a lot of games to be played.

Now what I do consider a big road win was the destruction in South Bend; they just don't have the defense(s) Michigan and Ohio State do (neither of whom showed up last week,.... <img src="/images/graemlins/rolleyes1.gif" alt="" />)

If only the game was as close as the score. The game was over when OSU scored with 5 minutes left. OSU let UM score to burn the clock. It's not like UM was right there knocking on the door to tie or win on the last play. You've always been better than a homer. It'd be a shame to start posting like one now <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

I think you guys are overreacting a little saying the game was over. Listen, im not taking anything away from Ohio State, they are phenom. And they won the game. But for as dominating as you guys are making them out to be, we just as easily could have won. You act like that last TD was a gimmie. Why would Ohio State let them score? If Michigan gets the onside they are in good field position and a FG away from OT, No way in hell OSU just GIVES a TD like that. And you take away that 3rd down helmet to helmet on Shawn Crable and we could all be in a different position.

Im not trying to play the what if game, it was a foul, and the called it, im just saying you guys are acting like you dominated and you didnt. These are the two best teams in the country and on that day you guys were better, congrats, but dont take anything away from Michigan. They just as easily could have won that game.

Good luck in Glendale, I hope to see you again.

Here's an idea that won't work because of the logistical nightmare(s) that would require changes in events that have already taken place (hotel & travel arrangements),...In the absence of the over-discussed need for a playoff, I would like to see the BCS/NCAA become "flexible" schedulers. This would lend The System some credibility we all agree it lacks, and restore some of the historical perspective that has been lost by the Bowl structure---

IF it's going to be Ohio State and USC, take the game back to the Rose Bowl. Let Phoenix and Hollywood trade for a year. (Sort that out later.)

Not a good idea ? (I ain't looking for no credit, just brainstorming) Discuss,...

The way Ohio State travels would negate any home field "advantage" for the Trojans.

If it were USC I think it would be great to see them play in the Rose Bowl and have a traditional matchup, now with that 5th BCS bowl it would be harder to make that a reality.

You're just still spitting venom from the Terps loss to BC.
<img src="/images/graemlins/saywhat.gif" alt="" />

I'm anti-rematch for one reason.
Michigan lost. They put up a hard fought game,but they had their chance.I look for USC to win out and end up in the #2 spot.

When you lose heads up with the #1 ranked team,you don't get a re-match.

JMHO

There's a little hole in your theory there Phil.

We didn't go into this game ranked #2. We went in ranked #1. So had we of lost? At that point,we may very well have been #2. But when you come in #2 and lose?

You're comparing apples to oranges there Bud.

JMHO

My only problem with the possibility of the rematch is the following:

Why should Ohio State have to beat Michigan 2 times and beat the #2 team in the country 3 times to win the national championship when the only top 5 team michigan played all year beat them.... and then Michigan would have to win only once against the Bucks.

I do not doubt that Michigan is the second best team. I do think that this is the year the BCS is just falling to pieces. Even if Michigan won a rematch in a close game, how do you think that is going to go over with the public and in that case wouldnt the championship be asterisked?


Or we could make the Michigan contingent happy and just keep playing them until they beat us. When that happens we can just declare that the National championship game and hand it to Michigan.

All week in Ann Arbor the game was touted as "THE REAL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME" now that they lost the game on the 8th is the real championship game.

Make up your minds.

Maybe Ohio State should just be given the title outright.

Why should an undefeated team that had to beat number two's have to play somebody who has one loss?

Do what I did and watch the game again. There's no way Michigan "just as easily could have won". Ohio State controlled that game. Michigan gave everything they had just to get their point defecit under double digits.

IF they recover the onside kick? Come on, even being in a position where you're depending on an onside kick.... and then having to score with two minutes left..... and no time outs.... just to tie the game..... isn't "just as easily could have won" in anybody's book.

Come on jfanent...

Michigan never gets beat.

They run out of time.

Or get hosed by the refs.

This year it is the BCS. "we should get a rematch"...

They can never just take a loss and accept it.

If Ohio State lost this game there would be ZERO talk of deserving a rematch.
<img src="/images/graemlins/rolleyes1.gif" alt="" />

Listen, in no way am I playing the "if" game, we lost, I know that. But to say you dominated and just gave us that final TD is ridiculous. And you may have dominated, but with that domination we had a shot at the end of the game, by getting that onside. Thats all im saying. The game very easily could have gone the other way, but it didnt, OSU was the better team. Quit acting like you won by 3 touchdowns. you won by 3 points, it was a great game, you won, dont diminish what UM did.

OSU let UM march down the field. Watch it again as J suggested. They were rushing 4 and playing soft coverage to make the stop in front of them. Herbie even commented on it during the drive. This was simply nothing more than allowing yardage to eat the clock. It was a great move, but created alot of this denial by UM fans. The game was over with 5 minutes left. That's Tressel football, play the clock and play smart. There wasn't one blitz from a blitzing OSU defense in that final drive. 4 men rushing every play and soft zone playing deep behind it. Again, watch the film and you'll understand exactly what happened.

As to why they did it...they did it to win, just as they did.

Come on man, get real. Where have I, iam or nas not accepted this loss? Im just saying stop acting like you won by 3 TD's and take off your scarlett glasses when reading the posts. I havent taken anything away from this Ohio State team before or after the game.

I like(d) your argument, except that I don't think that the Bucks having beaten two # 2's, or three by the time this is all over has anything to do with it. Of course,....

A playoff would solve all of this,....

In the meantime, it is unfortunate that this is the year of the Big Ten and that the historical value of the best rivalry in all of sports had/has to be a part of the equation. There is "discount" value in the USC loss to an unranked team. I could hold equal discount to the value of the close win against Ball State,....if the SEC wants to continue to bemoan the system that all its coaches and presidents agreed to, then Auburn should have layed down against Florida or they should have beaten Arkansas. Not my problem.

The system is clearly set up to annoint an undefeated team from The Big Six conferences, and/or Notre Dame, a spot in the title match. You either get there, or you don't, no matter who or how many # 2's you've seen. Again unfortunate, that can happen more times than you want it to in the SEC. What a deep conference !! I highly doubt Michigan or Ohio State runs that table like you can in the Big Ten. One of the benefits of being a member. Remember, Ohio State did not have to play Whisky this year. The Big Ten could just as easily have been a 3-way tie after Michigan beat Ohio State. The cards were dealt, you play your hand.

Tressel made the statement earlier this season that, as long as he's there, Ohio State will play or attempt to schedule an historically highly ranked non-conference opponent. Texas was ranked # 2 based on last year's success. Michigan certainly earned their ranking this season and was given every opportunity to prove it incorrect by becoming # 1. The AP still has them at 2, which in the current system is meaningless. That's why the BCS allowed the computers in in the first place--to offset voter bias. Not my problem, you HAVE to win on the field,....that's the way it is.

it isnt necessarily directed at you 2119, Nas or iam.

I live and Work in Ann Arbor and am a proud buckeye Alum.

I went through 2 weeks of BS on every radio channel listening to the following garbage:

How Troy was gonna get knocked out

How Leon Hall is the best defender in the country

How Michigans D would completely shut us down.

Come game day, OSU proves that they are clearly the better team.

Now I get home and it is...


The refs hosed us on the penalty.

If we dont get the rematch the BCS is a sham (like it isnt already)

Nobody esle deserves it more than us.

I am tired of hearing Michigan arrogance before, during and after the game. They can never just accept a loss and live with it like we had to with Cooper.

Hell even Mike Hart mouthed off after the game.

Rematch or not, that kid drew a huge target on his head for next years game.

Again 2119 not directed at you, just kind of tired of hearing the whine.

How Michigans D would completely shut us down.

That was the one that bothered me the most,...

I don't think so.

I'd like to think i'm about as objective as any guy gets...I don't like OSU, I don't like Michigan...I will root for either if the wind blows the right way...

...but if OSU drops a close one...they were #1 all year and are far more deserving at a shot than the rest of the bunch.

Michigan did drop a close one, at #2, on the road, in a tough place to play.

I'm not pro or anti rematch...I just think that if OSU lost the game, Buckeye fans would be calling for a rematch.

I'll take it a step further and say that OSU fans don't want a rematch because they are scared to play Michigan again. No one else in the country has a shot against them, IMO and I think they share MO.

With all that said, my guess is that we're going to see OSU and Florida.

Scared?

Maybe you should ask Troy Smith and Jim Tressel if they are scared.

To me it just sounds like Michigan cant come to the grips that they lost and immediately have to have another chance or else the whining will just continue.

Im sorry you have to deal with that, but I dont think you will find much of that on this board.

And im sorry you heard about our D shutting you down, but if you listened to me or other knowledgable UM fans, I told you you guys could pass on us.

So again, sorry you had to hear a lot of idiots, welcome to my world.