DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum BCS - My Take On How Things Will Shake Out

OSU will end up playing USC in Arizona next January. USC will defeat UND as the difference will be in their D, especially fast linebackers. No, Michigan should not be playing in the BCS; they had their chance.

Just for clarification purposes, I've always been an ND fan first and OSU fan second. Nice to see my two teams doing so great this year.

I really think that ND is still ranked too high and s/b ranked around 8th spot. If they had a better defense, especially the Linebackers then, I would rank them closer to the top 2 or 3 teams.

Teams who are hot now and are just beginning to peak:

Arkansas (Changed QBs and have Marcus Monk, WR & Darren McFadden, RB)

Boston College (M. Ryan, QB; Whitworth, RB and Jolonn Dunbar, LB)

BC has 2 losses already,....you're right about Arkansas, and since LSU has nothing to play for, my guess is they roll over for the SEC. Florida has to beat FSU first though,.....

If ND beats USC, no telling what or how the aftermath looks then,....

Better ideas to be spewed this afternoon with the poll releases,....

no way FSU beats UF... I know it's a rivalry game... but I think UF spanks them

Don't know about the computer, but the Coaches and Harris polls have USC at 2. That should be enough to give them the 2 spot in the BCS.; can't wait for the release,.....

And I still say ND has a shot if they destroy USC.

With the smack down that ND took from UM I don't see them jumping UM... I think it's USC or UM... possibly the SEC champ... but doubt it.

Well here they are:
link
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Notre Dame
6. Arkansas
7. West Virginia
8. Wisconsin
9. Louisville
10. LSU
11. Boise State
12. Auburn
13. Texas
14. Rutgers
15. Oklahoma
16. Georgia Tech
17. Virginia Tech
18. Boston College
19. California
20. Tennessee
21. Wake Forest
22. Nebraska
23. Brigham Young
24. Clemson
25. Penn State

USC can jump Michigan if they beat ND IMO.
As great of a game as OSU/UM was, they had their chance, now it's time for another team to have theirs.

The computer(s) will give Michigan a lotta love for losing close to the Big One; don't know if it will be enough to negate USC's two # 2 rankings in the Coaches and Harris,.....we'll see soon here,....

After that, you've got teams playing important games while you (Michigan) sit idle after losing your chance. I see no problem with these parochially nostalgic voters swinging for Notre Dame with a big win vs USC,....just my opinion. You also have Arkansas now maybe losing to LSU, not so far-fetched, and then winning the SEC. That puts both them and Florida OUT. Florida can ONLY survive the BCS polls IF the 'Hogs beat LSU and then the Gators take out the 'Hogs,....even then, the Gators have to fend off the winner of the USC/ND game, let alone Michigan (even while idle). I pretty much think the SEC is out of the picture as a result.

[color:"white"] Thanks for the link nasty.

I didn't ever think I would say this, but I really hope that USC wins out. I just don't want to see Michigan again. That is a compliment to them and I do believe the Buckeyes would prevail again (Tress prepares better than anyone in the NCAA his record proves it), but in the world of "what ifs", what if the team up north does make it to Glendale and wins? Is it appropriate to award them the title when all they did was split with us?

On that note, Go Trojans.[/color]

I just don't think that the #2 team should lose its big rivalry game and not have any penalty whatsoever. What's the point in playing the game if you go in #2 ..... lose ... and emerge #2 anyway?

Can you imagine how pissed off the SEC and Pac-10 are going to be if they both have a one loss team that won their conference and didn't get into the National Championship game.

I think it was Tressel that said "You can't play in the national championship if you don't win youro wn conference"

Good point,...I gotta look closer at the math,....how far away is Florida ??

Mich had a nice lead - gotta look at it again... dunno if big wins over Arkansas or ND would move UF or ND ahead of UM

USC is a lot closer to Michigan than Florida even is to USC. I guess if you're anti-rematch, we become USC fans ???

According to ESPN,
Michigan: .9263
USC: .9188
Florida: .8838


I think if either team wins, especially USC, they will get the nudge.

The problem with running down Michigan is that they are already finished with the season. To use the old golf adage, they're already in the clubhouse with the lead.

USC is going to have to win against ND and win big, especially with how bad Michigan beat them in South Bend. I think it will be a measuring stick for the voters......If USC barely beats ND, I think Michigan is going to solidify the second spot and the eventual second spot in the national championship game. USC also needs arkansas to win out because if they lose, that will hurt USC's BCS average. Right now they're the only team USC beat in the BCS top 10.

As for the question if this does happen (rematch)........ If Michigan loses to OSU by 3 on the road and then turns around and beats them by 10-14, I think they'll get the outright title. If UM wins by 7 or less I think it splits.

The sheer possibility of a split is good enough reason for me not to have a rematch,....however if it's to happen so be it. I personally believe that the Ohio State D has a better chance of improving how to shut down Michigan than the Wolverines do in shutting down the Buckeye O. We knew our defense was porous, but I would never have bet on Michigan's being a sieve.

If the Irish O-line shows up, the Irish WILL win. USC has been a little shakey this year. The other factor will be the ND secondary, if they handle Jarrett and Smith well, they've got 'em. IMO, the National Championship would be icing on the cake as long as the Irish beat SC.

You might win, but no way you jump Michigan and the SEC fallout,...

well when nd kills usc by 40 nd will be going to the national chamionship

If that is to happen I agree, and I'm definitely hoping for it.

<img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" />

ok... <img src="/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif" alt="" />

Stab, this is not directed solely at you, rather, this is for everybody.

Michigan lost by 3 points to the undisputed #1 ranked team in the country.

USC lost to an unranked Oregon State team.

As far as I'm concerned, there is no debate. Michigan deserves to be in the national championship.

You're probably right. That's what I meant by icing on the cake <img src="/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif" alt="" />

This seems to be point of contention for the day. One side is for rematch vs you only get one chance. I tend to lean toward "UM had their chance, there was doubt in their minds what was at stake and they lost (due to stupid head tackle on QB play).

How about a rematch between ND and UM then? That could happen also maybe but, I doubt they would meet in a bowl game.

No, the Irish will get beat by a faster and bigger D by USC; who's Linebackers will be all over Quinn. I think Weis will have to have a lot of out-side the pocket plays planned to get away from the USC D blizting and explosive linebackers. I wish ND had the running back depth that USC has but they just don't and Quinn is not fast enough on his feet to avoid USC defenders. I wish it wasn't so but, what I've seen of the two teams play, that is what I have perceived with the utmost clarity. Of course, I will still be cheering for my beloved Irish as I do likewise for my beloved Browns. Hey, who knows, turnovers, bounce of the ball, penalties, maybe a miracle can happen, like at Lake Placid, NY one year when team USA beat a supposed superior Russian hockey team. JMHO <img src="/images/graemlins/azzangel.gif" alt="" />

The math is telling me that only USC has a shot at getting past Michigan. If that is the case, then I have to root against ND. I do not like that much, but I am against the rematch; it doesn't feel right. And actuallly the only other team that would be as formidable an opponent at the moment is Arkansas.

I hear 'ya.

My logic is simple. Somebody please tell me where I go wrong.

USC lost to an UNRANKED, UNRANKED, UNRANKED TEAM!

MICHIGAN LOST BY 3 POINTS TO THE #1 RANKED TEAM!

I'm an Ohio State fan. I can't stand Michigan either, but, I will not take their rightful place away from them. Ohio State, and Michigan, are clearly the two best teams in the nation, and they should meet in the National Championship.

I care less about them either, but so be it. I stated earlier, the Buckeyes will get better on D than Michigan will on O, and their D is apparently a sieve. Assuming truth on that basis, the outcome is the same. What is then gained from a rematch ?? A chance bygone for some other team "deserving;" we keep hearing said about Michigan they "deserve." I'm sick of that. It's like saying Michigan "deserved" to win yesterday. The only team that's earned anything "deserved" is Ohio State.

If Michigan gets the # 2 spot, I would like to see Wisconsin then get a "deserved" Rose Bowl berth, but I'm told that won't happen.

There's still a lot of games that have a lot to do with the outcome yet.

All that said, we "deserve" a playoff,.... <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Because every other team who loses a game drops in the rankings. To go into your big rivalry game and lose, then have it not impact the ranking at all completely devalues the game. Why play the game at all if it doesn't matter at all?

This is the problem with the computers,....Michigan did drop in both the Coaches and Harris polls, but their computer ranking(s) stayed solid. That's why they're still # 2 in the BCS,....

They had a shot and lost... being a big ten man it's awesome that there's a possibility of two big ten teams in the championship - but it screws every other BCS conference.

i don't see how notre dame even gets brought up in this discussion...

i am against a rematch, but michigan deserves another shot more than notre deserves A shot...

notre dame is overrated... charlie weis is overrated...

that team can't play defense, they can't run the ball...

ohio state would blast them by 30+

i'm sorry but they have not beaten anyone this year...

I am anti-rematch which is why I'm hoping that Florida wins out and Notre Dame wins out and Ohio State plays Michigan in the NC game... but you said... Yea, I know what I said.. the only thing I'm more "anti" than rematch is the BCS.. so the more people that get screwed (or feel like they got screwed) the more pressure will be put on the BCS... and say what you will about college football fan bases, but hell hath no fury like a million scorned Notre Dame fans... So I hope WVU ends up with 1 loss, Florida, Notre Dame, Louisville, Wisconsin, and just for fun I hope Boise State goes undefeated... I want as many people feeling ticked off as possible... and to top it off, and this is not to tick off the Buckeye faithful, but I hope Michigan wins the game by a FG because then even the Buckeye fans will have a real sour taste in their mouth about it since both teams will be 12-1 with only a FG loss to each other...

Michigan has a Quality win over (5)Notre Dame that gives them style points. If USC beats Notre Dame they will drop in rank in and Michigans point value will drop as well.

...or, if OSU beats Michigan again, those other teams will really be ticked that Michigan had two chances and they weren't even allowed one.

exactly, either way LOTS of people are ticked.. that's why that's the best solution... <img src="/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif" alt="" />

Be honest here. You'd think Michigan should get the title if they lost 42-0.
<img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Not that there's anything wrong with that!
<img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Ohio State's opponent: Best one-loss team
Updated 11/19/2006 8:35 PM ET

MIKE LOPRESTI - From the Press Box





Only 49 shopping days until the Tostitos BCS national championship game, when it'll be Ohio State against (insert one-loss team here) in Glendale, Ariz.

But who (insert one-loss team here) will be is the question on the floor. Let's make it simple. There should only be two options.

Option A: If Southern California wins out, the Trojans should go.

"I'll be the last guy to campaign for us," coach Pete Carroll told the media after USC beat California.

We'll do it, then.

If they finish 11-1, they will have beaten two teams currently 10-1 (Notre Dame and Arkansas), two teams 8-3 (California and Nebraska) and four more with winning records. Good enough.

Option B: If USC loses, it's Michigan, even though rematches are usually wrong and unfair to the team that won the first game.

But between the Wolverines' near-miss at Ohio State in the shadow of Bo Schembechler's death and the fact no other team has as good an argument, that would be the most just call.

Did someone mention Arkansas? This just in from September: USC 50, Arkansas 14. In Fayetteville.

Florida? Barely beat Vanderbilt. Barely beat South Carolina.

Notre Dame? Absolutely not. Notre Dame instead of Michigan would be a travesty after the Wolverines drilled the Irish 47-21 in South Bend.

"It will be what it will be," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said. "And I know that it will be probably very controversial either way. So that's what we like."

Quite the kidder, that Lloyd.

"There can't be many teams in the nation better than Michigan," Ohio State coach Jim Tressel said. "But I'm not going to get into it."

Tressel probably doesn't have a big appetite for having to beat Michigan again. He knows the Buckeyes can score on the Wolverines. His use of four and five wide receivers was especially inspired and effective.

What he can't be sure is if his team can stop them.

But if USC wins out, he shouldn't have to.

Link

I agree and I am assuming you would be in favor of playoffs. I am, although I doubt the Bucks could have managed any more miracles in 2002 to make it through some type of playoffs. As a matter of fact, that year certainly bolstered the BCS system.

On the other hand I would have liked our chances last year in a playoff bracket. The Buckeyes were playing as well as anyone despite their two losses. After last year's Michigan game I thought we had a great chance to do exactly what has happened this year. The Fiesta Bowl convinced me.

YTown's point really hits home for me. I understand that Michigan has a fine club, but there is something to be said about The Game's value.

There certainly needs to be a playoff...even if it is 4 teams.

I tend to agree with the article above. If Florida and USC win out though, either of the two, I see them going over Michigan.

Either way, we will be ready and play a great game. I think we would beat Michigan again but because we have played them, I think it would be the hardest game to play.