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OK, granted, the season is not done and anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday.
However, looking at our schedule versus the other three teams that are contending for the #1 pick (Tampa, St Lou, Detroit), I doubt us picking first overall.
Here's the lineups
Tampa Bay plays
NY Jets
Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
If you ask me, thats about as close to a 0-4 stretch as possible. MAYBE they surprise the Jets with Clemens starting this week.
St Louis plays
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
San Fran 49ers
Pretty strong bet of an 0-4 here as well. However, both the niners and cards come out flat sometimes. Its a shame that apart from Steven Jackson the Rams have no one to exploit that with.
Detroit plays
Baltimore Ravens
Arizona Cardinals
San Fran 49ers
Chicago Bears
I'd guess Detroit has at least a puncher's chance against the niners and the bears...maybe even the Cards. I'd say they've got adequate chance to scrape out one win.
And finally us
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs and Raiders both seemingly play randomly good football from time to time. Jax is playing up so thats a likely W. Let's say, we get a W against either the Chiefs or the Raiders. Two wins in a row? I'd think I was hallucinating.
Given we lost to Detroit this year, an identical record will give us the nod over them for a higher draft spot.
I really don't see Tea Bag winning any of its last four. There's no real cupcakes there. I also doubt if St. Louis wins out as well....once again, not the easiest of schedules.
Hence, I'd bet the top 4 picks go
Tampa Bay
St Louis
Cleveland
Detroit
As such, I am reluctantly stepping away from the Suh bandwagon. Would love the guy but there's no way Tampa passes on him.
St. Louis takes a QB obviously....either Clausen, McCoy or Bradford.
So who do we grab here? Eric Berry?
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if we pick and suh is gone and berry is there that's the pick. It's not even a discussion IMO.
Elam isn't very good and Pool will probably need to be replaced. We don't hae a real playmaker on defense and he is the only other (high) potential all-pro on defense after Suh.
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if we pick and suh is gone and berry is there that's the pick. It's not even a discussion IMO.
and you don't even have to mention who we have there. he's BPA if Suh is gone (possible exception for Haden, but Berry plays a more important position, so he wins the tie).
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I don't know, we've played pretty well since the bye week. It wouldn't shock me to see us beat both KC and Oakland to get to 4-12. That would probably drop us in to the 5-8 range.
We'll see how it plays out but there's 4 players I think are worth a top 10 selection this year:
1.) DT Ndamukong Suh
2.) S Eric Berry
3.) OT Trent Williams
4.) QB Ryan Mallett (if he declares).
If we stay slotted at our pick (and don't trade down), I would hope we get 1 of those 4 players.
A lot of people will argue we don't need an OT but St. Clair is terrible. While it's a bit dicey to draft a RT that high, if you think Quinn is the long term solution, it's not a terrible pick.
Obviously Suh and Berry are the homeruns. Williams and Mallett probably come in to play more based on their value than anything else. The BPA approach if you will.
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How deep is the O-line draft this year. Would we entertain taking a a Right Tackle early? That is if Suh is gone that is.
Last edited by The Collector; 12/11/09 04:12 PM.
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This is my top10 ranking based purely on BPA:
1. Suh, DT/DE
2. Berry, S
3. Haden, CB
4. Kindle / Hughes, OLB (tie) - I've seen more of Kindle, so I would lean towards him.
6. McClain, ILB
7. Okung, OT
8. McCoy, DT
9. Bulaga, OT
10. Earl Thomas, S
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Quote:
Quote:
if we pick and suh is gone and berry is there that's the pick. It's not even a discussion IMO.
and you don't even have to mention who we have there. he's BPA if Suh is gone (possible exception for Haden, but Berry plays a more important position, so he wins the tie).
Sorry for being dumb, but I do not know Haden,....you're correct on Berry. (My man Herron stomped Mays and he ain't been right since.) So unless there is a Michael Oher out there at RT I am not aware of, Berry is good to go, assuming TB takes McCoy.
As always, in the draft mode, I am calling it CRAPSHOOT !! You just cannot predict what's going to happen, even with all things remaining the same, and what if they don't ?? (i.e suppose Brady gets hurt and Belichick trades the farm to move up,..or Jerry Jones says he "has to have Suh" and pulls out all the stops,...)
But I will say one thing,....with eleven picks, and to keep him out of harm's way --that is, out of MY way-- I say we steal in a sneaky pick/round where no one expects it, and take Tebow off the board. If someone else doesn't, I bet the house Belichick does,..... that kid is a football player.
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no worries.....he doesn't get the publicity he deserves, but he will once the mock drafts start coming out full steam.
Haden is the best player at Florida (you can even tell Ammo I said that).
He is a CB and is unworldly good....he covers, he tackles, he is blazing fast and he has started for the Gators since his true freshman year. I don't know that you can select him over Berry though because S is such more of an important position on the field.
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I don't know that you can select him over Berry though because S is such more of an important position on the field.
so what your saying is we should trade down in the first round.... 
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Crapshoot stuff is BS. I predicted 7 of the first 8 picks in '07 and 12 of the first 15. It's not a crapshoot.
Tampa or Detroit will take Suh if they are ahead of us, but the Rams will go QB.
I wouldn't touch a tackle or QB in the top 5. Only good tackle IMO is Okung, and he is too finesse for the right side, and the QB's all suck. Even if Mallett and Locker declare, they are way too raw for me. I wouldn't take Mallett in the 1st even.
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If we pick third, Berry is the easy choice. If a nightmare occurs and we lose out on Berry AND Suh, you trade down and take McClain, Hughes or Brandon Graham, IMO.
you had a good run Hank.
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Quote:
Crapshoot stuff is BS. I predicted 7 of the first 8 picks in '07 and 12 of the first 15. [color]
I believe you did predict 7 of 8 and 12 of 15.
I do not, however, believe that you made those predicions in early December.
Right now, it is a crapshoot. NFL teams put so much stock into the combine, and you have no idea what's going to happen there.
Rey Maualuga was a Top 5 pick this time last year.
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I have been impressed with DE Corey Wootton out of Northwestern, he hasnt got alot of press due to the fact that he plays at Northwestern, kind of reminds me of Aaron Maybin of the Bills. Not Sure if he is worth the 3rd pick, but he deserves a strong look if he is still around later in the draft.
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Quote:
Quote:
Crapshoot stuff is BS. I predicted 7 of the first 8 picks in '07 and 12 of the first 15. [color]
I believe you did predict 7 of 8 and 12 of 15.
I do not, however, believe that you made those predicions in early December.
Right now, it is a crapshoot. NFL teams put so much stock into the combine, and you have no idea what's going to happen there.
Rey Maualuga was a Top 5 pick this time last year.
Thanks,... Predicting is not "knowing." Nobody knows anything yet.
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I have been impressed with DE Corey Wootton out of Northwestern, he hasnt got alot of press due to the fact that he plays at Northwestern, kind of reminds me of Aaron Maybin of the Bills. Not Sure if he is worth the 3rd pick, but he deserves a strong look if he is still around later in the draft.
I agree....I have only seen 2 of his games, but he was all over the field against Iowa. I look forward to seeing him against Auburn.
I'm not sure where people see him going in the draft, but my guess right now would be he seems like a late 2nd, early 3rd type of guy from his play.
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Right now he's projected as a 1st rounder.
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well, there goes getting him as a steal 
#gmstrong
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Quote:
Crapshoot stuff is BS. I predicted 7 of the first 8 picks in '07 and 12 of the first 15. It's not a crapshoot.
Tampa or Detroit will take Suh if they are ahead of us, but the Rams will go QB.
I wouldn't touch a tackle or QB in the top 5. Only good tackle IMO is Okung, and he is too finesse for the right side, and the QB's all suck. Even if Mallett and Locker declare, they are way too raw for me. I wouldn't take Mallett in the 1st even.
I'll look forward to your predictions this year. When can we expect them?
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Wooton has good size but I can only see him going in the late first round at best
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I have been giving them and will continue to do so. Obviously, only my last predictions count. 
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I won't doubt the skills....yet. I'm thinking of setting up some kind of draft fantasy football competition so we can actually start keeping track of the people who start announcing who we SHOULD have picked midseason and how they were supporting them the whole time. We should do something for first round picks too.
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If Eric Berry is available and Suh is not available Eric Berry is the pick no matter where we are picking.
I don't want Suh mostly because I would have to learn how to spell his first name.
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Quote:
This is my top10 ranking based purely on BPA:
1. Suh, DT/DE
2. Berry, S
3. Haden, CB
4. Kindle / Hughes, OLB (tie) - I've seen more of Kindle, so I would lean towards him.
6. McClain, ILB
7. Okung, OT
8. McCoy, DT
9. Bulaga, OT
10. Earl Thomas, S
Haven't really been following the mocks and rankings, but I like the top 4 you have there.
The pick HAS to be Berry if he's there. He was the guy I wanted a few weeks ago, before Suh proved he was far and away the best player in college. If we were #1, I'd take Suh ... but I doubt we will be now. If Berry is still there when we're on the board, he's the guy we absolutely NEED. Just look at how the Steelers struggle without Troy P. playing for them.
I'd also be happy with Haden or McClain as well. We need a defensive playmaker, and I think those guys would give it to us. There just aren't any Peyton Mannings or Adrian Petersons to be had in this draft, so I say we go for defense and bring back the dawgs. The best players this year are on defense, so lets get those guys.
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I don't want Suh mostly because I would have to learn how to spell his first name.
If he's there, you have to take him ... only because he's far and away the best player in the draft. Sure, that would give us to big-time DT's and not exactly fill a position of need ... but he's the best in the draft. You just can't pass on him.
Berry is arguably the next best in the draft, but he is exactly what we need. I will turn cartwheels if we can draft him.
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I say that even if Suh IS there, we still should take Berry... and yes, even at #1 overall.
We run a two-gap 3-4... folks should stop and ask themselves if a get-up-the-field guy like Suh is really the best fit for what we do on our DLine?
A stud safety makes the entire defensive back 8 better. A guy like Polamalululu or Reed can cover so much ground and impact such a huge portion of the field that they are true game-changers. Suh may be able to have a similar impact, but not so likely in the scheme we run, and it would be a horrible idea to alter the scheme that everybody else has been learning and working in just to accomodate one new player.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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Can't really say I disagree with you there. Berry is the guy we really need.
Suh is far and away the best player in the draft though, and I think he would do just fine as a DE in a 3-4 as well. I'll be happy if we can get either.
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Don't get me wrong, the idea of a player alongside a player like Shawn Rogers is VERY intriguing... but I'm just not sure that it is the right choice for us or this defense.
If we were to go that route, this team needs to put some serious thought into the direction we are taking with the defense, and then we need to stick with that... because we cannot do that and then potentially just decide to shift gears again the following year or whatever.
I understand the argument for BPA and I can't really argue it, but I'm more of a firm believer in "BPA within the context of need". I don't fell that you can do an absolute separation of BPA & Need unless both players absolutely fit what it is you are trying to do.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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I would say we could realistically win two of our last four games.
That would give us four wins.
I would say there is a good chance that we end up drafting out of the top five.
The Redskins, Lions, Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, and Bills could call end the season with four wins or less.
I would love to draft out of the top five this year, mostly because the draft will be so deep. And we would save a significant amount of money.
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Until we know who declares it's hard to even guess.
If McCoy declares is is a top 5 pick.....maybe a top 2.
It is easier to talk draft once we know who is going to be in the draft, and Lord knows we have a long enough time to talk that.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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This year we don't have to wait as long though. The 1st round is on Thursday instead on Saturday. That means we have to start talking about it sooner.
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Quote:
This year we don't have to wait as long though. The 1st round is on Thursday instead on Saturday. That means we have to start talking about it sooner.
LOL.....good point!!
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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NO RBs in the early first round? Where are the stanford guy and the Bama RBs slotted at the moment? I want Berry but would take a RB at 5.
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Suh if we can get him, Berry if not Suh and he's available, G. McCoy if both Suh and Berry are gone.
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If Eric Berry is available and Suh is not available Eric Berry is the pick no matter where we are picking.
I don't want Suh mostly because I would have to learn how to spell his first name.
Even if he falls into Ryans SATs?
Im glad your not the GM if that what you go by (sarcasm) Mangini goes by IQ, Butch went by height, size, weight and speed intangibles; Clark went by god knows what; and cfrs goes by spelling. Why?  Remember Palmer and Clark had like 5 players with the last name Brown?
I actually would rather the Browns not pick 1st, save a few million and select a bigger need in Berry. Suh could be a once in a decade d-lineman. Some thought that about Glen Dorsey and now his own GM says he doesnt fit the 2 gap 3-4 scheme. Suh is more of a monster and I think Dorsey might have been 5th in Heisman voting. But with Pools concussion history, Adams as a good backup and Nickle back, and Furrey concentrate on offense unless the team has 3 injuries, Berry is also a Reed/Polamalu talent that needs to be selected and wiould be more beneficial to this team in the long run. I too like selecting BPA but I think this d-line could be younger, but isnt that bad at all. Corey Williams is stepping up, of course Rogers, I like what I saw out of the former Jets Coleman and Mosley more than any other former Jets, and the youngster Ruybin is doing just fine. The Steelers and Ratbirds were lucky to get those talents as late in the 1st round as they did. I never understood why people said you dont pick a safety too high in the 1st round 
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Suh if we can get him, Berry if not Suh and he's available, G. Mcøoy if both Suh and Berry are gone.
That should be the new draft question of the day. God forbid that if Berry and Suh are both gone, WHAT DO YOU DO?
At this point of the year... I would say draft back and get even more selections.... save even more money... and see if you can use that pick to draft McClain, Dez Bryant or want to see what you guys think.
I myself want to not use a high pick on a QB just yet and give Brady one more year to build weopens around him. If Brady isnt the awnser after next year (not expecting another 07 but would be rooting for it) then the Browns could still get a QB the next year in FA or pull a Flacco or Matt Ryan. This year, I myself havnt jumped on the Campbell bandwagon  and dont see it in rookies McCoy and I havnt seen enough of Lockler. Not with the weopens on this team teaching the would be new comers.
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My third pick was for Gerald McCoy, hence the G. McCoy, DT Oklahoma. Not the qb Colt McCoy.
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My third pick was for Gerald McCoy, hence the G. McCoy, DT Oklahoma. Not the qb Colt McCoy.
Gothya I didnt catch the G. I dont see any OLBs that I think could step in right away thats worth a top 5 pick. I wouldnt mind Dunlap, Kindle, etc.. but not top 5. Trade back a few spots.
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Given we lost to Detroit this year, an identical record will give us the nod over them for a higher draft spot.
Head to head record does not play a part in draft tie breakers. Remember it happened to us a few years ago. I can't remember the team we were tied with (and I am too lazy to look it up), but we had identical records as them, lost to them, but they picked ahead of us.
Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker.
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I would say we could realistically win two of our last four games.
That would give us four wins.
I would say there is a good chance that we end up drafting out of the top five.
The Redskins, Lions, Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, and Bills could call end the season with four wins or less.
I would love to draft out of the top five this year, mostly because the draft will be so deep. And we would save a significant amount of money.
I am not calling you out here, but with the kind of money these people make, the only danger is the holdout, not the amount. If we have the first pick then so be it. I don't care about saving money--it ain't mine.
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It aint yours but it could be Josh Cribbs
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Forums DawgTalk Tailgate Forum I'd bet we pick third...so who do
we get?
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