DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Expectations

I've unfortunately hijacked the FA thread, so I'll move that discussion here.

I've been thinking about what, specifically, I expect to be improved with the team going into the season. This is what I came up with.

IMO, the biggest problems the Browns had last year, on both sides of the ball, were 3rd down conversion % and turnovers. I thought those areas got better down the stretch, but this year I expect a major improvement in those areas.

The QB and DB positions were major holes in last year's team. The QBs were terrible. Could not convert 3rd down at any acceptable rate. There were some drops, to be sure, and we had 2 rookies in the WR corps, but I believe the largest contributor to the problem was the QB position.

In comes JD and SW. IMO these guys should represent a significant upgrade to the position. Holmgren is on record saying he believes JD's struggles last year were not due to age or declining skill. I think Mangini might be a little more leery of all those INTs. I think SW has a good chance to play. In either case, these guys had better be able to deliver the ball much more effectively on 3rd down.

In addition to the new QBs being better players, they are coming into a better situation. There will not be the uncertainties and confusion associated with an evaluation/teardown year. The rest of the offensive skill players, for the most part, have had a year of continuity in the playbook, and Mangini isn't spending any time on anything besides coaching the team. Addition by Subtraction has occured with the replacement of St. Clair and Lewis as starters.

I expect 3rd down conversions, TOP and turnovers to be stats greatly improved right off the bat going into the season.

On to the D.

I can't count how many times the Browns put their opponents into a 3rd down situation, and was not surprised at all to see them convert. I believe this is directly attributable to two guys. Poteat and McDonald. It was not a good thing at all to be relying on these players to save the day on 3rd down. Elam gets picked on here a bit, but I don't think he was part of the problem nearly to the degree that starting a WR as the other safety and depending on those two. The defense could not get off the field, and often failed to make just that one last play we needed.

This offseason the braintrust has gone after that backfield with a vengance, bringing in a very good veteran corner in Brown, and drafting DB with the first two picks. There is not much uncertainty as far as what Brown is going to bring, he is an instant upgrade. Haden might not start right away, but Ward almost certainly will. He's only got to beat out Adams, Sorenson, and Ventrone.

I actually don't expect a huge, dramatic improvement right away, although they will be better. As the season goes on and the new players earn their way on the field and learn the system, we should see a much improved defense the last 3rd of our games.

The trickle down effect is going to be huge. Brown and Haden remove the liability which is McDonald from the field until we are in a Dime situation. This puts the Defense as a whole in a much better position to use more bodies in blitz packages, resulting in more sacks, turnovers and a much, much better 3rd down conversion rate. Ward almost cannot help but be an improvement at FS than what was there last year, and these are the guys we are going to be depending on come 3rd down.

Again, they are mostly rookies, and will experience some growing pains, we will see some breakdowns. But as the season progresses, and these guys grow and learn, I fully expect Ryan to start feeling comfortable enough to run his aggressive packages and leave these guys out on islands.

So, my expectations are specifically revolving around 3rd down and turnovers, on both sides of the ball. I expect the offense to improve immediately, the defense moreso down the line a bit.

JMHO

I look at the draft and FA signings and have set my expectations accordingly.

I expect to see a lot of progress in our secondary as the season goes on. With the additions of Brown and Haden, we shouldn't be getting burnt deep so other teams will be forced to earn yardage the hard way. Bit by bit.

With the additions of Hardesty and Hillis, I think we should be more efficiant on third and short yardage downs.

After seeing the team sort of "click overall" towards the end of the year last season, I expect a gradual progression as the season unfolds overall.

What do I think may be too high of an expectation? QB play. We don't know which JD we'll actually see this year and Wallace is a career back-up for a reason. I believe Wallace may be a slight upgrade to what we've seen, but my expectations aren't very high there.

Same pretty much with the OL. Is Pashois really an upgrade at RT? I believe he is, but not much of one. Lauvao being a rookie my take a while to seriously contribute. So overall, I expect some gradual improvement with the OL but I suspect that progress will be slow and limited.

jmho

jmho

I agree with everything you said Pitt. I'm actually really excited to see our running game next year. Harrison went on a tear and now he'll have quality guys to back him up and take pressure off of him. Most rookie RB's turn into studs early so I expect Hardesty to contribute early.

I expect the team to be better as a whole, and I expect that you are absolutely correct in assuming we'll have much better play from the QB position. It was simply atrocious last year, and we won the games we won in spite of them, not because of them, IMO.

I'd expect the running game to continue to improve, especially with the additions in the backfield and on the right side of the line. We are obviously setting up to give the QBs the running tools, so that they can effectively manage the games without needing to do too much this first year. I see our situation as being very similar to the situations both the Jets found themselves in last year, and the Ravens in Flaco's first year.

I expect the receiving corps to take a step forward. This is a very weak squad on paper, but as we know, paper don't play on Sunday. Robo must, MUST step up. Momass needs to continue to develop and we need some serious help from one of those two big youngsters. (Dagnabit!) Cribbs will do his Cribbs things, but I expect him to catch a few, (not a lot,) more balls. Maybe Wallace lines up wide a few times? I also expect to see Hardesty lined up outside more than once or twice, because the dude can catch and that is a real freaking premium on this team.

I expect our D to rail! Really rail! I like that the team started to gel last year. I love Rob Ryan. I love the improvements in the secondary, and now that we actually have a pass rush, I expect great things from the DB squad as well.

I expect to win more than five games. But not too many more. 1, 2 or 3 maybe. but I expect to see a better team playing in all 16 games, starting with game 1.

When it comes to sports I've found that having expectations almost always leads to disapointment.

Yes, it's better to pretend you don't care.

We got so much better...Mangini did a great job of upgrading the roster:

we now have Royal, a great blocking TE and got rid of that primadonna Winslow who was a locker room cancer anyway and couldn't block a fly....we also drafted 2 very talented young WRs and signed Furrey who should be a significant upgrade at slot-WR or maybe even #2 WR if the rooks need more time...Robo was labeled the "most polished" WR prospect though, so I expect him to start day 1 and improve our consistency at catching balls....you know...where this moron Edwards sucked at, hahaha...I'm so glad we got rid of him, those Jets morons won't go anywhere with the rookie QB and primadonna WR we gave them and they will ask to get rid of him after a couple of games, no way they will tender him at 1st&3rd round value, that's for sure....we have much more reliable receivers now and I expect Cribbs to improve as a WR too, we will be fine here

Mangini signed Womack and StClair and drafted C Mack after numerous trade downs, bypassing the likes of Sanchez, Crabtree, Moreno, Orakpo, Matthews, Harvin and Oher....what a great deal....we got some much needed experience with Coleman, Elam, Trusnik and Ratliff and another 2nd rounder he then used on some intruiging guy named Veikune, who could be our Bruschi-version....I'll take this package any day over some "maybe" franchise QB or "maybe" playmakers or pass rushers....I like it...because let's face it: as much as we like Fraley: he was the worst link in our OL and needed replaced the most...we solidified the C-position for years and got some guys Mangini knows and can help teach his schemes..and then Veikune on top of that....this was pure ManGenius

We will finally see Quinn for a full season and the power blocking scheme along with the run-1st mentality Mangini seems to install should fit Quinn's play much better than DA's....we have some big maulers in Thomas, Steinbach, Mack, Womack and StClair up front...along with Lewis and Harrison and wildcard rookie Davis we should be a force running the ball to set up the pass

We also improved on D...Mangini brought in Coleman, Mosley, Barton, Bowens, Trusnik, Poteat, Elam, Ventrone, Costanzo...this is a huge upgrade over Savage bums like Leon Williams, Holly or Purcell or C.Thompson, A.Davis, S.Jones and Ralph Brown...along with the natural improvement from young guys like Wright, Pool, Rubin, Hall and DQ this D looks very much improved, we finally have great depth....and again: he got some much needed experience and guys that know his system....Mangini was a SB-winning DC and along with his great DC-hire Ryan there's even a good chance that they will probably finally fix Wimbley and get him back to rookie form

Man I'm pumped...I think we're headed in the right direction...I really like what Mangini is doing here, he's doing it the right way finally...can't wait for the season to start....we're much improved, no doubt



It's gotta be offseason....I don't know how many of those posts I read in a similar thread exactly 1 year ago....then the season started and we looked sooo lost on O and D and got trashed by everyone...we had no running game, no passing game whatoever and couldn't stop anyone getting gashed on underneath pitches all day....we lost 11of 12 games and the only game we won we had something like 20 passing yds and it was the worst NFL game since mankind winning it on a muffed punt.....then everything clicked we beat the Steelers thanks to a great Cribbs KR and several Cribbs-WCat plays and sacked Roethlisberger a million times because theay refused to run the ball in a winter game, we then barely beat the almighty Chiefs, we needed 2 all time NFL days from Cribbs and Harrison to "barely" beat 1 of the worst teams in football....so great, 2 wins in a row....then we beat the Raiders who turned the ball over to us in the most inappropriate moments of the game...the had way more yds than us but we won again, wohooo....and finally we absolutely DOMINATED the JAX who refused to play football the moment the left their airplane in cold Cleveland.....man, there's hope and all those incredibly ... 12 games before are all forgotten because we were finally halfway competitive and (even luckily) won all 4 of them against minor competition for the most part

I'd really love to have short memories like you guys, that's pretty much the only thing I envy you

I am still a bit puzzled by the departure of Holly and L. Williams, but Holly appears to be out of the league and williams is probably on the bubble with Dallas.

I am not sure what to make of the Pashos pick up. San Fran made it pretty clear that he was not in their plans.

DelHomme has a lot on him, and has not looked very good the past couple of years. I really hope the change of scenery makes for a better year.

The rest of the moves, I am fine with.

I think that if the Browns were smart, they would go after a WR to complement what we have now.

The draft was acceptable, and I was surprised by the lack of a WR or TE.

On paper we should be a bit better, but we will have a better idea after preseason, and a few games.

I don't expect much, to be honest.

We are throwing in 2 rookies into a defensive backfield with two guys who are neither field generals and Elam isn't exactly a world beater at safety. By the end of the year they'll click, but the beginning of the year will be rough.

I'm undecided on the front 7. If Gocong brings the ability to contain the run and Fujita brings the thunder inside, they could be decent at their job. Pass rush, for me, is not a concern because we have several guys who can be pass rushers or at the very least, situational pass rushers.

I do expect for us to be able to run the ball. Our oline is huge outside of Steiny, Mack is in his second year and we added a good run blocker in Pashos. Our RB situation is better because we don't have a RB who is slow and have plenty of options. Even if Harrison goes down, I have faith in our RB situation.

Passing game is going to be...I don't know. Either Delhomme turns back into 08 Jake and the Browns passing game is a total surprise and amazing upgrade, or he proves he is done and we are minimally better than last year in the passing game. It cannot be worse than BQ and DA.

Overall, I don't expect a much better record, 6 wins, 7 or 8 if we get really lucky, but I expect another late season run to give us hope again. I also don't expect to get our asses handed to us early in the season either.

My expectations on this season have to be given an "Incomplete".. I can't possibly be expected to speculate on how it will turn out until at least 3 years from now.

DJ, I nominate that for post of the year.

Really? He reminded me of lemons and burnt coffee.

I'm pretty hopeful. I think we improved in most parts of our team. QB pretty much has to be better. RB will be better w/o lewis, and with Harrison *(who I think is awesome since we've had him). WR is bad, but not any worse. They could step up. I think MoMass was very impressive for a rookie. I''ll be excited to watch him grow this year. I expect us to suck at Throwing for the most part and hope for better OC calls. (Please, please please play action pass for once). Still he should grow too. TE should be ok. I like the addition of Ben.
Defense I think will be pretty good if no one gets hurt for once. We have some good LBs. I like the new additions plus our late season additions from last year. Secondary should be better and that will help the pass rush and run D. Our line is old at end, but skilled when on the field. Injuries could kill us there. I wish we had more depth there.
Special teams will likely be special. Cribs is awesome, and Mangini seems to love SP players and develops them well. (even Django would agree to that.)

I say SUPERBOWL!!!..............but I say that every year. Makes me feel better.

The team appears to be better this year than last. How much better? Well .. if I could answer that with absolute certainty, I could clean up in Vegas.

I certainly hope for the best, but suspect that this year will be one in which 3rd place in the division would be a huge accomplisment.

You are much more likely to be right then me!

Still what if I'm right?

We'll see.....that's why football is so great. I agree we aren't all that talented compared to many, many other teams. I still think they can gel and who knows?
I think our division is much weaker than most think (again though, I'm a homer). Steelers might be getting old, has a bad o line, issues at QB with the suspensions (AND he holds on to the ball to long). RB..well Mendenhall doesn't scare me much (well unless I had to tackle him then I'd be very scared). Ravens will be good. Cincy.........well who knows? Most likely good and better than us,..........but you never know with them.

We at least won't be the worst team in football most likely. I still think we could be the Saints and land in the superbowl somehow. (I know we don't have Brees but who knows?).

Super Bowl.......Win


Now what I think will actually happen, 6 - 10 or 8-8 depending on which way the ball bounces.....I do think were a better team, yes we have holes to fill and question to answer but it nothing MH isnt aware of and working towards,

This orginization & Fan base needs to stop whinning and get it's chin up and hold our heads high, we need to stop having a complant for everything that dosent work out perfect, dosent workout, keep pushing keep working were Browns fans dagnabit....were lake erie shore line tuff, were Ohio Winter tuff, were warm beer & stale Pretzel tuff.....Hold your head high guys will be ok, might take a couple years, but we will get there.

Quote:

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This orginization & Fan base needs to stop whinning and get it's chin up and hold our heads high, we need to stop having a complant for everything that dosent work out perfect, dosent workout, keep pushing keep working were Browns fans dagnabit

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So, what are you saying,, should be ban Django?

Sorry Jango,, just kidding around with you....

just clicking...

This is the second year in a row that the Browns roster is getting a major overhaul. The Browns signed 9 free agents and drafted 8 players this year, which translates into approx 1/3 of the roster will change.

The Browns are carrying 21 players (in addition to this years draft picks) who are listed with 1 or 2 years of NFL experience.

How quickly the team gels...how well the coaching staff teaches...how quickly the young players learn... all 3 factions will figure into the Browns success this year.

Add to these factors...new QBs and Holmgren's influence over Daboll's offensive playbook...the offense will be in "learning mode" again.

How quickly the offense gels will play a large part in how successful the Browns are this season. These are not excuses..they are reasons why the Browns might be slow to start the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

I look for the Browns to win 6 to 8 games this year.

only 13 or 14 guys left (expected to make the roster) from BEFORE Mangini....3 of them are Ponty, Dawson and Zastudil...then pretty much the nucleus of our best players left with Cribbs, Thomas, Rogers, Rubin, DQ, R.Smith, Vickers, Steiny, Harrison...plus McDonald and Adams....except the last 2, who are backup/spot starter guys, these players are all AVG and some (much) better at their positions....the rest of the projected roster are made of Mangini guys and now H/H players....just saying...

6-8 wins at best. I'd be suprised if we find ourselves contending for the playoffs in December.

WR is still a glaring problem unless MassQ and Robiskie step up, which they should - but how much is the question.
No FA wideout worth anything is gonna want to play in Cleveland with our QB situation... gotta be honest here.

I expect Haden and Brown will make our D better, but the DL worries me because it looks paper-thin.

I suspect D'Qwell will be gone which doesn't worry me because I don't think he's that good. Still need an impact player at LB, but I'm hopeful that collectively they can get the job done.

We play in a tough division. I think the Bengals will be favored to repeat as AFC North champs, hopefully the Ravens take a step back (is Ray Ray ever gonna get old?) but now they have some offense. The Steelers are gonna start sliding downward, IMO.

I thin you just missed my point

If those non-Mangini guys are AVG and better, then why did this team still stink? for me, either the players Mangini brought in must be pretty bad that despite the production of the aforementioned bunch the team placed dead last in O production and 31st on D...how come? OR Mangini and his staff were bad...I think it's a bit of both

It's all good weeding out crap talent you inherited and he did that for the most part but you're not going anywhere if "your" guys you bring in are bums as well...outside of Mack I see no above AVG or better starter 2-3 years down the line from his 25+ group of players he brought in...that just won't cut it

I hope and am confident that this year's group, esp. the draft class, will yield more though...I have a good feeling with Heckert...I just hope Holmgren and Mangini let him do his job

My thoughts coming into the season is that 8 wins is about our ceiling. I think around 6 wins is more realistic. I think out WR group leaves a lot to be desired. An injury along the Offensive/defensive line would be a critical blow as we lack some serious depth. I expect our defense to be improved with a ranking to be around 22nd mark in the league with 15th being their ceiling.

On offense I think the loss of Jamal greatly improves our horrendous offense specifically in the run game. With Harrison and Hardesty I think we should have a solid running game. I am still a believer in James Davis and think we have great depth at running back. I am not a believer in Jake Delhomme and expect 7 TOs in the first 3 games out of him. I dont expect him to be our QB after 8 games/bye week not sure which comes first. I dont see an improved passing game and it will be up to our RBs/Cribbs to put points on the board. End of the season I expect Delhomme to be cut and our offensive coach fired, as I think many of you forget his atrocious game/play calling. After the first four games last season I almost wished we had Mo Carthon back with his FB option pass play calling. If we're not in the bottom 5 on offense in the league I will be suprised. Harrison really bailed this team out last season.

web page

Nope 31st overall. 22nd would be a nice addition. I use total defense as it gives a better sense of the actual defense.

Though I do find tied for 21st in pts as shocking considering the amount they were on the field and the defense was constantly put on the opponents side of the 50 yd line, many times in the shadow of the goal post.

jc

When do the minicamps starts? I thought there was always a minicamp a week after the draft.

My expectations aren't very high. I expect to see some hitting. Real hitting. The kind that Paul Brown intended. I expect to see at least one display of the defense hitting a guy so hard the bottoms of his shoes are clearly above his helmet every game. Football is a violent sport and by golly I want to see some inflicted on the opposing team. I want to see guys running around like they know what the heck they're being paid for and enjoying it. I want to see a team that does it's darndest with whatever it's got to score points. I want to see a team that does likewise to prevent the other side from scoring. That's all I want. If they do that we'll see a few wins.

how is narrowing it down to total yards better than narrowing it down to total points?

if you have some sort of equation that takes into account the yards, points, and levels the effects of the offense's turnovers and field position from ST. Then great, that's how it a defense really should be rated.

i don't know of a free website that gives up that info, if anyone does, please forward (there's no way i'm putting the time in to do that stuff myself)

The total defensive ranking is derived from their rushing/passing rankings. Total we were 31st in the league, aka terrible. I would gladly take 22nd over that which is almost a 10 rank jump based on 2 corners and 2 safety additions.

Can also go on yahoo for the rankings as well if you dont like ESPN but its still the same results. web page

that is still yardage only based. i could just give you a list that is default point based and we're 21st:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2009/opp.htm


i looked around for a formula that would sort of do a "defensive efficiency" chart that we have for basketball (points per possession would be better as well), but I couldn't find anything of note.

my guess would be that our defense would fall between the 29th and 21st ranking (as our good STs had a say by pinning opponents back).

sort of surprised that stuff isn't more readily available with all the stat gurus out there now.

so, if anyone wants to do a 16games.com (nfl version of 82games.com), please get on the ball and get it up for all of us

Lampdogg, I agree. But the sidelines are a wildcard. If we get Daboll to call as aggressive a game as the D, if we get afew decent receivers, limit the 3 & out of it O, and if we can get some stops, maybe some takeaways, we could be in some games. I am hoping the Walrus might edge us into a wildcard slot. We gave up too many games to lame gamepreps with RAC. So optimistic, not stupidly so, that if we steal afew we might be in the mix more this season. Fingers & toes crossed. Go, Browns!

Well we gave up 5.8 yards per offensive play tied for 3rd worst in the NFL. The average team gave up 5.3.

We gave up 336 1st downs, the most in the NFL. The average team gave up 299 1st downs.

We had only 10 INT's, 4th worst. 16.4 was the average.

Teams passed for 3,915 yards against us, 4th worst. The average team gave up 3,495.

We gave up a net of 6.9 yards per pass attempt (tied for 5th worst). 6.2 was the average.

We gave up 2,314 yards rushing (5th worst).The average team gave up 1,866.

We gave up 4.6 yards per carry (4th worst). The average team gave up 4.2.

We did have 40 sacks, tied for 6th most in the NFL.





I think the formula for success in the NFL in on defense is this. Stop the run. Force turnovers in the passing game. Most good teams in the NFL are going to be able to pass the ball no matter what.

I am following you line of thinking now. A more comprehensive system that takes everything into account would be nice. The more I think about it the less happy I am looking at a defense based purely on yards or points. Something that incorporates both into account would be very nice.

Just based upon the "eye" test from last season I thought we improved in both areas as the season went on no matter which way you chose to look at it. I anticipate a better defense moving forward into this season, the more I tend to look into it, baring injuries (specifically Dline) I think we could even make a push into the upper half. I still have a huge question mark in the back end of our defense (safety) as I am nto a huge Elam fan (he's ok, solid but nothing great). If the safeties step up and either Rogers decides to start playing the run or moves to DE I think we could have a very solid unit and something to build on moving forward.

I am trying to take numbers out here and just go on what I see since I think a lot can be made of rankings and differ greatly based upon which way you view them.