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cfrs15 #490555 04/29/10 12:54 PM
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Well we gave up 5.8 yards per offensive play tied for 3rd worst in the NFL. The average team gave up 5.3.

We gave up 336 1st downs, the most in the NFL. The average team gave up 299 1st downs.

We had only 10 INT's, 4th worst. 16.4 was the average.

Teams passed for 3,915 yards against us, 4th worst. The average team gave up 3,495.

We gave up a net of 6.9 yards per pass attempt (tied for 5th worst). 6.2 was the average.

We gave up 2,314 yards rushing (5th worst).The average team gave up 1,866.

We gave up 4.6 yards per carry (4th worst). The average team gave up 4.2.

We did have 40 sacks, tied for 6th most in the NFL.





I think the formula for success in the NFL in on defense is this. Stop the run. Force turnovers in the passing game. Most good teams in the NFL are going to be able to pass the ball no matter what.





I especially agree with the per play stats as better indicators of our team defense.

This thread is about our expectations and how we are going to judge this upcoming teams progress. The problem I'm finding is it is hard to develop a good baseline with the stats available.

pts against has serious flaws as well. in the balt vs. kc game last year, i believe KC had 24 points, but only 7 were given up directly by their defense (turnovers and ST accounting for the others). so, pts against looked bad for the Ravens that day even though they played well (i remember it because it was a severe outlier in the stat).

anyways, from what's been discussed here, I suppose the best indicators for our defense (by the stats readily available) would probably be:

pts against per game
yards allowed per play
yards per carry
yards per pass attempt
sacks
turnovers forced


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Lines like total defense and Points allowed are good indicators of weather that defense is good or bad, but won't help you figure out how to get better.

It's important to see how the individual stats affect each other. I'm not really a number cruncher guy, but I do tend to remember situations which occur over and over again. I can remember a bunch of times the team made a stand in short yardage situations. They were really pretty good a lot of the time in that regard. I don't think that yards per rush # is telling the whole story.

This team could not get off the field on 3rd down, and far too often a 5-6 yard gain became a huge play because one guy failed to contain the runner. We just didn't have good enough players in the secondary. When you can't get off the field, the front guys get tired, and that YP rush # gets all jacked up. Add that to the fact that the offense probably led the league in 3 n outs, and you are not going to see good run D stats.

However, that secondary was addressed as thoroughly as I could have hoped. This is why I am looking forward to a very improved defense overall. To start the season, the difference might not stand out as much, although Brown is a huge upgrade over McDonald, but as those 3 rookies learn their roles and grow, towards the 2nd half of the season I expect to see that side of the ball looking good. By the end of the year that defense should be in the top 15.

Another thing that is going to be vastly improved won't show in the stat line, and that is toughness and intimidation. Every one of those 4 DBs acquired or drafted can tackle and hit. I love that, and can't wait to see a new attitude on that side of the ball.



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hooter #490557 04/29/10 03:13 PM
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My expectations are 6-10....Defense continues to improve but we still can't score points to beat the good teams


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wojo_dew #490558 04/29/10 05:10 PM
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jc...I'm not worried about the stats from last year. that was last year this is this year. so back on topic of the thread..
I expect the team to show up and play football all 4 quarters and give it their all..
I expect to see them to COMPETE !!! win or lose at least compete..
I can see us going 8-8 (hopefully) I think we have a better team then last year.
I think we definately have a better front office then last year that understands what it takes to win..
Anyone with common sense knows we had to many things to fix, to expect it all to be done in 1 year and I think we plugged up some of those holes in the draft, trades and FA.
Even if we end up going 1-15.. I EXPECT to see us COMPETE in every game

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DJ, I nominate that for post of the year.




Agreed 100%.

Before last year I made the point that people were setting their expectations for 2009 way too high. What happened?

Have we improved from 2009? It's tough to say in a definitive way that we have.

Delhomme is a complete wildcard. He had a surrounding crew on offense far superior than our crew and was historically bad. I'm not expecting him, in a new offense with worse players, to be better than he was last year. To do so would be foolish.

Our WRs are historically bad as a group. I've never seen a worse collection on an NFL team in my life.

Our OL is pretty darn good. Our RBs/FBs I'd complement as average.

What does that make....bottom 1/3 nfl offense no doubt.

Our DL is old and slow. They played better when their best player got injured. What that tells me is Rogers was freelancing and we got gashed for it.

Our LBs are undertalented, hardworking, easy to root for players. Jackson has no business starting over Bowens. Our defense was not cover your eyes awful with him starting in the middle.

CB is now the second best group behind OL. I love the Sheldon Brown signing. Haden I like a lot as a pick and I expect him to play in the nickle package outside while Brown slides inside.

S is a weakness. Anyone who thinks a rookie can come in and make a positive impact is bucking history. Most elite safeties struggle early. Hell even Polamalu was awful early. TJ Ward and Larry Asante...please.

Overall I don't see anything better than 6 wins. Even that'll be tough. But I'm crossing my fingers I'm wrong.


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1 thing stats don't tell you and what our 21st in pts allowed hides: since our Offense was so bad and unable to move the ball through the air and most teams were leading by multiple scores often in the 2nd half teams simply ran out the clock and settled for FGs at best....heck I've even seen 2nd stringers being brought in...we were that bad

a much better "indicator" for improvement and long term guidepost is AVG per play, on O and D...I've listed those for our last 5 seasons in this thread

That said: here's what I expect:

I actually expect us to overachieve a little bit.....we won't have a much better record but we'll be more competitive than last season...I expect a mediocre "Crennel-season" with ups and downs, I just don't hope homers consider this an "improvement" and want to keep Mangini around another season ...Delhomme really is the wildcard here....I really don't know what to think of him: is he really finished? or can put together 1 last halfway decent year? He's the key...

On paper we haven't upgraded SHORT TERM...next to nothing....if a rookie comes in and plays at AVG NFL level on day 1, he'd have to be a ProBowler in the making...it's not easy for rookies, even for studs...just look at Mack last year....he was easily the worst starting C in the league for over the 1st half of the season, then something clicked or he calmed his nerves down, or both....point is, as has been said by other posters: it takes time for rookies, even good ones


Watson is a below AVG starting TE, he's better than Royal....but the position is still below AVG....same applies to Delhomme and QB position...or Fujita-Barton at ILB....going from bad to below AVG or horrible to just bad can be considered an upgrade but you'll still end up losing more and maybe as many games as before....that's why I think we'll be more competitive.....instead of being down 3 scores starting the 4th we will mabye only be down 1-2 scores etc....but we'll still lose more games....Holmgren/Haskell influence also should boost the Offense in some way


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I agree with everything you said...

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or Fujita-Barton at ILB




Are you saying those two will be starting? Or that Fujita/Barton are the same player?

I think that Barton won't even make the team. And I think that Fujita, while not a great player, is better than Barton by a lot.

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I was referring to the "upgrade" (Watson-Royal, Delhomme-Quinn etc), so I expect Fujita to start in Barton's role ..I also hope and think he will be cut....we have too many young guys at LB who need the playing time more than keeping him as a backup at the salary he's making....the signing of Fujita pretty much sealed Barton's fate...he's only still around as injury insurance


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it's not easy for rookies, even for studs




I agree with everything you said. Out of all our rookies I think Hardesty could be a stud for us early because rookie runningbacks usually "get it" pretty early and have decent years. I don't think he'll make the pro bowl but I think he will make the most significant impact for us this year out of all the rooks.

Bard Dawg #490564 04/29/10 09:43 PM
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Lampdogg, I agree. But the sidelines are a wildcard. If we get Daboll to call as aggressive a game as the D, if we get afew decent receivers, limit the 3 & out of it O, and if we can get some stops, maybe some takeaways, we could be in some games. I am hoping the Walrus might edge us into a wildcard slot. We gave up too many games to lame gamepreps with RAC. So optimistic, not stupidly so, that if we steal afew we might be in the mix more this season. Fingers & toes crossed. Go, Browns!




No worries, bard. I ain't throwing up the white flag on 2010 quite yet. LIke I said, I'd be surprised if we contended into December, but it's certainly possible.When I said 6-8 wins at best, I meant that as a realistic expectation.


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IMO, our below average play will be at these areas

1. Both guard positions look to be below average.
2. the safety positions are still questionable unless the rookies perform right away. It may take to mid-season or later for them to "get it"
3. the wide receivers are a mystery and could go either way.
4. I'm not sold on the ROLB position

I think we will be average or darn close to it everywhere else with the exception of Thomas, Rogers and Cribbs.

We need to get average play from every position and work up from there .I don't see that happening this coming season. A below average team earns a below avearge record. Seven games look "winnable" at this point. That's my prediction.

My expectations:

Get better at the below average positions for 2011.
IOW, wait until next year.

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Thanks, Lampdogg. My point was that we COULD have been in more games, just made ourselves more vulnerable, and we didn't challenge and exploit some opponents. I agree with realistic. Coached up, and flush some of the dumb and heartless play, we could have been in those games. But FG's aren't the answer, and neither is a string of draws. We addressed the sefense with people. The offense will only increase production if it goes after people early and often. The kneel down is an insult to fans unless you have the lead. Just sayin'.


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PitDAWG #490567 04/30/10 10:02 AM
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Quote:

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My expectations on this season have to be given an "Incomplete".. I can't possibly be expected to speculate on how it will turn out until at least 3 years from now.




Well DC, if you wait three years to say what you expect this season, you'll be two years too late won't you?



At that point you'd be talking about history, not expectations!





But that seems to be how everybody wants to grade the draft.. through the comfortable lens of history, as opposed to expectations...

You want my expectations... I think we will be better. I think the team will enter the season with a ton more confidence than in most years past and will benefit from having one year under its belt with the current staff. I think we will benefit from having a couple winnable games early and if we can win a couple (Tampa Bay and KC) we might just build on that confidence and have a decent season. Based on last years results our schedule gets pretty darn tough in the middle but we won't know how tough those games are until we get there. I think our division is down, I think the Rats will be really good but I think we should EXPECT to at least split with the Bengals and Steelers... in the end, I EXPECT to win 7 or 8 games, I just hope we win some early to keep it interesting unlike last year where, of the few games we did win, we won them all late so it was hard to get excited about it.


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1. Both guard positions look to be below average.




I know Steinbach isn't as good as he used to be, but he is definitely not below average.

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1 thing stats don't tell you and what our 21st in pts allowed hides: since our Offense was so bad and unable to move the ball through the air and most teams were leading by multiple scores often in the 2nd half teams simply ran out the clock and settled for FGs at best




that is a good point. Baltimore in the second game just got a lead and sat on it in the 2nd half.

need something better than yds/play though too...that tends to just show how poor our team was at letting big plays happen and skew the number.

but, like I mentioned, it doesn't look like there are any free sites giving better stats right now, so unless we want to do the grunt-work, we might not have an option.


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Watch on 3rd down.

The good teams can get it done in that situation. Wait and see.


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I really still think this year is a feeling out year for Mangini.. I think MH has a backup plan.. not getting rid of Mangin's Coaches on the Offense, tells me he is giving him enough rope to hang himself with, while giving him no excuses when it happens. Because we hear MH always talking about QB's - West Coast Offense, WHERE did our coaches last year even give anyone including MH the feeling he could jump from that horrible offense to being able to sceme a west coast style????

Saying all that if it works great! If we are in most of all the games and dont get blown out, thats improvement.

I see us winning 6 or 7 games. But if we get off to a bad start, MH will take over or get something ready with Gruden for the following year.

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I just don't hope homers consider this an "improvement" and want to keep Mangini around another season




Still don't know what you have against Mangini the Coach. There may be some residual effect of Mangini the Personnel Guy, but at least that damage was held to one year.

Preaches and demands accountability ... check.
Preaches and demands teamwork ... check.
Preaches and demands hard work ... check.
Preaches respect for others ... check.
Expects everyone to up their IQ level a bit ... understand what everyone else is doing ... check.
By all accounts, is very hard working and very intelligent ... check.
Has EARNED his way to where he is through hard work ... check.

Tell me the last time you saw a Browns team play so well together with so little talent and so little at stake than last season. The opponent is irrelevant in this context. That said a lot about what the players thought about Mangini, IMO and his plan.

And now he has someone to keep that big ego in check. We all have a little bit of ego. I would venture to say yours is pretty big. We all need that. He's got that now.

Who would you rather have than Mangini and why?

I want to see what this guy can do over the next couple of years with this structure in place. This just might be an epiphany for him. I think he has the core characteristics to be successful ... everyone sometimes needs a little direction.

Quote:

...Delhomme really is the wildcard here....




The QB always is. This whole team will look better if we can get better play from the QB.


LOL - The Rish will be upset with this news as well. KS just doesn't prioritize winning...
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Quote:

Tell me the last time you saw a Browns team play so well together with so little talent and so little at stake than last season.




You're going to blame the talent? Seriously are you going to base your argument on the team success of last year?

Quote:

Who would you rather have than Mangini and why?




Just about anyone that would be a serious candidate and the team would select for the job.

Because they lost 9 in a row last year, including to Detroit and almost to Buffalo, they lost 11 total, and this is the one responsible for draining the team of talent, ( at least it appears so).


The last time I saw a Browns team play so well together? Weren't they 0-4? I do have some memory of ALL of those post game press conferences in September and October and November.

Wasn't this team 1-11?
Isn't Mangini a defensive coach? (next in a long line)
Didn't the defense look BAD last year? Didn't they even make Detroit look good?
Weren't there times when the players were completly out of position like on a touchdown play,(or huge gain play) in the San Diego game?


HOW ABOUT THIS!
I expect to watch a team that competes, I expect to watch a performance where it looks like they did everything possible to win the game.
I expect to have an offseason where I don't read Browns fans expectations on the upcoming season to be 6 to 8 wins realistically.
This is the NFL
I expect them to climb out of the 30th's in ranks of offense and defense.
I expect them to reach a point where they average 9+ wins a season over 11 years, instead of 5.9 wins since 99.


This is not an expansion team anymore, they shouldn't look like one. This team replaced 3 quarterbacks, and much of the rest of the roster in the past 18 months, And the head coach, And the director of just about everything, And all of the scouts, and the General Manager, just about everything except the owner and the fans.

The last time a Browns team played so well together? Every other year.
Alright not 1991, but just about every other year I can remember.


Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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So you think you have a better idea of who should be the HC than MH?

Sorry, don't buy it.



BTW- Could you list for us all of the talent we had last year that could have unseated starters for another NFL team?

I could see Cribbs, Rogers, Stieny, JT.

Please expound on this list of supposed "good talent" we had here last season please.

Sorry, had to edit. I forgot Pontbriand and Phil Dawson.


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I forgot to qualify the statement about playing so well with 'at the end of the year'.

One thing I don't believe you are taking into consideration is that sometimes it takes time to see a plan start to work.

If you were just named the boss at some new company with a bunch of employees you didn't know well and where there was a culture of no accountability, do you think it would take some time to turn things around?

I mean that's just common sense. If you continue to argue that point, it only means you hate Mangini and nothing will change your mind.


LOL - The Rish will be upset with this news as well. KS just doesn't prioritize winning...
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Mack, Wright, potentially Rubin.

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If you continue to argue that point, it only means you hate Mangini and nothing will change your mind.




Of course it would take some time to turn things around.

But until we see some results this year we don't really know if anything has been turned around. At this point last year's final record means virtually nothing. Either good or bad.

Personally, I still have my doubts about Mangini. The team's efforts this year will go a long, long way to deciding my final opinion of EM.

I will say that it is my belief that if this year's first five games are anywhere close to last year's first five games then Mangini won't make it to the end of the year. I hope that is not the case.


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So let me see if I understand you Otto.

If you see the team putting forth a solid effort in their play in the beginning of the season, and gradual progression as the season moves forward, you will be okay with that?

Because IMO, with the large turnover of players over the course of the last two seasons, I believe that's all anyone can really expect of this squad.


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I don't disagree with any of what you said.

I believe Mangini earned one more year at least, and we'll see how that goes.


LOL - The Rish will be upset with this news as well. KS just doesn't prioritize winning...
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I expect to run the football and I expect to run the football well.

I expect our defense to record a similar amount of sacks (40 is plenty), if not more due to a better secondary, and I expect the D to force more turnovers and get off the damn field on 3rd down more often. (channel the voice of Michael Reghi when you read that, he says "damn" a lot)

How does this translate in the win column? I don't know. A lot of that rests on the arm of Jake Delhomme. But I expect the light that turned on last season to carry over to this season as we add on top of that foundation that was built. Mack, Massaquoi and Robiskie are in their second years and I expect progression. I expect Veikune to stop "thinking" and get after it. I expect signs of progression from last year's late rounders. I expect the wildcat to expand with Seneca Wallace added to the roster.

Last season near the end we found a formula: Pound the rock, get after the QB and use the wildcat. We weren't "good" by any means considering our "quality" wins are Pittsburgh and Jacksonville (although that is debatable)...but I think we put the necessary pieces in place this year to build off that...(better secondary so we don't get shredded when we blitz, Pashos as a runblocking RT and drafting a lineman early along with Hardesty, for example)

I have no idea how many games we win. If Delhomme rebounds, the Browns could seriously be wildcard contenders, if he stinks, we'll be an average team at best.

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I expect to go 8-8.

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I'm, thus far, rolling with no expectations at all.... aside from my standard annual expectation of an 8-8 record as I always expect no less than that.

I have things that I am hoping for and looking forward to, but I'm not actually expecting anything.... and it's quite liberating. I'm not fretting over anything, I'm actually just having fun watching things unfold week by week.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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I may be optimistic but we have a really easy schedule. Really Easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We could easily, accidentally go 6-2 the first half of the season.

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Quote:

I may be optimistic but we have a really easy schedule. Really Easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We could easily, accidentally go 6-2 the first half of the season.




Really?

At Bucs: OK, Should be winnable

Chiefs at home. Should be winnable.

At Ravens. Tough game.

Bengals at Home. Tough game.

Falcons at home. Tough game.

At Steelers. Tough game.

At Saints. Defending Super Bowl Champs at their house.

Patriots at home.


Forgive me if i don't see a ridiculously easy schedule here. What games do
you see as "tough" ... and which as "rieally easy"?


I should add that our opponents had a 2009 rerord of 132 - 124, which is tenth hardest in the NFL for 2010.


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The real wild card is that how will the schedule plays into this whole thing.

Our 1st 2 games are very winnable and from there the team could begin to build some confidence and surprise even us.

When I look at the Browns as if they where a jig saw puzzle there were several key pieces that were missing last season. This season at least we have the pieces, now the key becomes how will they fit together, and how soon will they fall into place.

We have 2 WR’s that are still very young and still learning, I look for them to improve on what they where able to do last season, and with better QB play and continued success in the running game our offense hopefully will be much improved.

My expectations are that this team continues to play hard #1, and to be at worst competitive and continue to improve over the course of the season. I can live with that, but like I said if this team (and they could) can get off to a quick start then they can begin to build some confidence and that can actually build some momentum thru the remainder of the season. Will see ??????? And that would be the best case scenario.

I actually don’t think will be a bad team this year but will continue to struggle through the growing pains of a team that is in transition.

JMHO


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Quote:

Quote:

I may be optimistic but we have a really easy schedule. Really Easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We could easily, accidentally go 6-2 the first half of the season.




Really?

At Bucs: OK, Should be winnable

Chiefs at home. Should be winnable.

At Ravens. Tough game.

Bengals at Home. Tough game.

Falcons at home. Tough game.

At Steelers. Tough game.

At Saints. Defending Super Bowl Champs at their house.

Patriots at home.


Forgive me if i don't see a ridiculously easy schedule here. What games do
you see as "tough" ... and which as "rieally easy"?


I should add that our opponents had a 2009 rerord of 132 - 124, which is tenth hardest in the NFL for 2010.




All are winnable to me except the Saints (who just have too much offensive firepower and the 2nd best QB in the game). Some will be tougher than others. The Bengals don't scare me whatsoever...Rob Ryan seems to have a formula for Carson Palmer as he didn't play well in either game last year.

We know how to beat the Steelers now and Roethlisberger won't have his timing down.

Ravens? We shall see. They're pretty well stacked but I'm not entirely sold on Flacco. We would have been competitive if we had any sort of offense that Monday night...

Falcons: Tough, no question, but they weren't invincible last year.

Pats: more winnable than people think. Receiving core is old (Moss) and battered (Welker) and the defense is in transition...plus Mangini (and the home crowd) wants to beat Belichick which should give the Browns some extra motivation.

Ammo #490587 05/03/10 08:07 AM
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Too many IFs to get a good read on any of it, IMO.

IF our new secondary is up to snuff.
IF our defense can be markedly better than last year.
IF our new offense can be MUCH better than last year.

Yada, yada, yada....


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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I love the term "winnable'.

I have to remember that every year every team is "improving". Every team is "finally healthy" at the start of the season. Usually it's only a few teams that haven't plugged most of it's holes with at least some hope filled warm body. Every team's fans point to the fact that 4 of the most glaring holes have been addressed even if 1.5 others have not.

The point is that practically every team in the league takes 3 steps forward in the offseason. If we take 2 steps, we've actually not improved, we've lost a step. If we take 4, we've actaully only improved comparitively by one. There is a tipping point, or tipping points where you go from being pathetic to basically competative, competative to competative and winning, from winning to consistantly winning. There's a bunch of factors that shape oll this stuff but none more important that quality of players. Seems obvious. Better players in more positions and better players in more important positions equals better averages and stuff starts "tipping"

That said, I think we took 4 steps forward. Which means we did a bit better than just keeping pace with the rest of the league. I doubt we're much better that 6-10 at the end of the year, maybe 7-9 if we're lucky. We made few draft improvements that will pay dividends this year. We got a few potential starters or rotation starters but not at positions that will tip the W-L column that much. Most of our FA action improved depth and brought in servicable average starting candidates. We still have major doubts at QB, WR, OL, FS. I'm as optimistic as anyone but the reality is exactly what Holmgren & Heckert (and every other 1st year GM we've had in the last decade ) has said... it's gonna take more than 1 year.




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Bone, I understand your puzzle comparison.

But we concentrated a lot on the secondary, which is fine. And we do have "some" of the missing pieces. But if you really feel all of those pieces are there, I feel you may be fooling yourself.

This team is still missing some pieces to the puzzle and we're not sure all of the new pieces we do have are going to fit and produce well.

jmho


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Ammo #490590 05/03/10 12:07 PM
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Quote:

All are winnable to me except the Saints




Any game is "winnable" ...... but easy? Man .... if the other poster called thar srretch an easy schedule, I'd hate to see a hard schedule.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
PitDAWG #490591 05/03/10 12:11 PM
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If you see the team putting forth a solid effort in their play in the beginning of the season, and gradual progression as the season moves forward, you will be okay with that?




Uh....yeah.....Is that a problem for you?

Honestly, if I just see them put forth maximum effort in the first game it'll be something I don't think I've seen in at least 10 years.

As far as expectations go......at this point I have none. My point in the previous post was aimed more towards the expectations Mike Holmgren may have. I suspect that starting out 0-5 or 1-4 will earn Eric Mangini a bench pass for the rest of the season. No matter how the last four games in 2009 went.

I hope that is not the case. But until I see THIS team play, basing any opinions about 2010 because of what happened in 2009 is just wishful thinking, IMO. And you know there is always an abundance of that around here at this time of year.


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Quote:

called thar srretch an




Put down the beer, you're starting to slur your words


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... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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j/c...

I expect improvement. I don't care if we go 6-10 this year (I realize this isn't our year to compete), I just want to see that the moves we've made are the first steps in a long process to make this team good again.

Record doesn't bother me this year, I want to see an improvement on the field.



TopDawg16 #490594 05/03/10 01:13 PM
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That made me realize one thing that I have an immovable expectation of:

I expect to see that the direction that this team is now headed, under the new leadership, is validated.
I expect to see the personnel choices made this off-season validated.

I expect to see that the one area of the team that has plagued us the most has FINALLY been fixed - The Front Office.


If those expectations are met successfully, then the future is a positive one for us indeed. If not, we'll be rebooting this thing - again - in the not too distant future.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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