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I understand that. I just mean that the notion of 10TB for a Joe PC user on his home computer won't seem that astonishing. I also think that the optical disc for media storage/archival usage is on its way out as flash-based storage becomes less and less expensive. It's still dirt cheap as a method of distributing files, but gone are the days of burning your files to a CD to back them up or take them with you when you can use cheap redundant backup solutions, and affordable, ultraportable flash media or cloud-based storage for smaller files. It's definitely a strange, and somewhat unsettling, time for the optical disc as a whole. The music-purchasing world (emphasis on purchasing, not stealing) has seen a giant shift to the intangible model of buying music from services like iTunes and Amazon. The popular thing to do in the underground music scene is to sell vinyl LPs that come with either a code that can be redeemed for a downloadable copy of the album, or have a CD copy (sans packaging, disc art, and liner notes) of the album bundled with it.
The one place I do see optical media having some staying power is in high-quality digital video distribution, because while streaming movies and TV shows is great, even the quasi-HD streams from Netflix and its ilk don't compare to a 1080p BluRay. They're more along the lines of well-upconverted DVD for the most part. I don't think the infrastructure for today's ISPs is going to improve quickly enough and reach a high percentage of its target audience fast enough to keep pace with the increasing demand for high quality video. Screens are getting bigger month by month. 3 years ago $1500 bought me a top-of-the-line 42" plasma television. Today $1500 can buy me an HD projector, 100"+ screen, and BluRay home-theater-in-a-box. And on a screen that large, you want the best video quality possible.
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Quote:
The one place I do see optical media having some staying power is in high-quality digital video distribution, because while streaming movies and TV shows is great, even the quasi-HD streams from Netflix and its ilk don't compare to a 1080p BluRay.
Uhhh... .that's the point.
A standard Blu-Ray is *only* 25GB. That disk is 10TB... 400 times as much, which is potentially quite the MASSIVE improvement in video and audio quality.
Nobody cares about data storage.... we're talking about movies.
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I misunderstood your intention then. I thought you were pointing it out as a means for end users to store data. My mistake.
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Quote:
Quote:
The one place I do see optical media having some staying power is in high-quality digital video distribution, because while streaming movies and TV shows is great, even the quasi-HD streams from Netflix and its ilk don't compare to a 1080p BluRay.
Uhhh... .that's the point.
A standard Blu-Ray is *only* 25GB. That disk is 10TB... 400 times as much, which is potentially quite the MASSIVE improvement in video and audio quality.
Nobody cares about data storage.... we're talking about movies.
Better get a much faster internet speed to download those ..... and set aside a few days to burn one to the new disk.  LOL
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I have a collection of CD's about 2000 strong, that are already on the computer, It takes up about a 1.5 of a TB drive. They are in uncompressed (not mp3 or AAC form)
Movies... I am stumbling around with putting the DVD's on the media center, they range from 4 to 9 GB per disc. Blue ray can be put on the computer as well. An 8TB network drive is not out of the question.
That is more than the companies servers, by a bunch, and we do 3-D CAD,
Just a matter of time before everything is digital. I am a firm believer in Moore's law.
Welcome back, Joe, we missed you!…. That did not age well.
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I was just trying to imagine a kid on Napster (or whatever) trying to download a movie 10 years from now that has 10 TB of data. lol I also cannot imagine how much "better" the quality can get. We would almost need a wall sized screen to accomodate a 600X Blu Ray quality picture, or the additional quality would be wasted. Of course, maybe we'll move to a true 3D by then where you sit in the middle of the room, surrounded by screens .... and the action explodes all around you ....... Even that might not be enough to justify 600X Blu Ray. Maybe a complete interactive movie and question and answer session with the cast where every question imaginable is programmed in along with every answer imaginable ..... Of course, now we might be bordering on creepy ....
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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In movie terminology blue ray is about 2k technology, (the 1920 width) There are plans to go to 4K and 8K technology in the future.
I don't know what that means except a disc will have to be about 4 times as large.
Welcome back, Joe, we missed you!…. That did not age well.
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Yeah .. but that's why I have trouble imagining what could be done with a disk 400 times as large.
I can imagine that they could create living movies that could play out any of a million ways depending on the viewer's choices. Even that probably wouldn't take that much data capacity though. lol
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Increased numbers of uncompressed audio channels. Imagine several main channels split by frequency range to be sent to separate amps for highs, mids, and lows, eliminating the need for external crossovers. Multiple subs, perhaps subwoofers for the upper low frequencies, and "buttkicker" style transducers for the ultra low subsonic frequencies. 4 or 6 surrounds. 20 channels of uncompressed audio for a 90 minute film would take up quite a lot of space.
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I just don't need that much sound .... lol I must be weird. I like a decent surround ..... but I don't need something that is more lifelike than lifelike could ever hope to be on this or any other earth ...... 
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Holographic video may be possible by then, which could/would be 1080p in a 3rd dimension for true depth of field.... if it is 400 pixels/layers deep, that is your 400x Blu-Ray.
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Now that I would pay extra for.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
I just don't need that much sound .... lol
I must be weird.
I like a decent surround ..... but I don't need something that is more lifelike than lifelike could ever hope to be on this or any other earth ......
I hear ya. I have 5.1 in my living room and its more than enough for me. Even 7.1 is excessive in my opinion, and I read about people doing stuff like 11.2 and 20.3 and it just seems totally ridiculous. Still, some people will want it, and they're likely also the people that can afford to pay for it.
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jc...
Personally I think disc in general will be out in about 10 years, replaced by memory cards. Blu-ray is what 25gb single layer, 50gb dual layer. SDMicro cards are readily available in 32GB already and even more at premium price. I have an 80GB SSD 3.5" drive in my home PC. I keep all our work programs and utilities on a 8GB USB Thumb drive, and a second one with all the printer software, PC source drivers, O/S installs, etc on it. No need to keep the CD's/DVD's anymore.
And with fiber optic lines in the future, downloading a 1 to 2 TB movie won't be that bad. FiOS is capable of 50MB/s, although fiber optic is capable of 10-40GB/s and more in higher quality systems.
But then you figure in 10 years almost any movie you could want to watch will be online to stream over your fiber, on a unlimited usage monthly fee like Netflix, so downloading and storing them would be unnecessary. (except for those that are too impatient to wait for a release and DL bootlegs)
If you sit back and think about computers and the internet in the past 20 years, in the past 10 years, you almost can't even predict what it will be like in another 10.
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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Flash memory will need to change drastically for that to happen. Currently you can get an 8gb flash drive for around $20. I can get a pack of 15 Blank 4x BD-R with 25gb of storage for $25.
Flash has been around a lot longer and is already in heavy use so I can't see the price dropping that much but Blu Ray still isn't even the market share but give it a few years and you will see that same pack for under $10.
IMO, memory cards are too expensive. It is the reason game consoles got away from Cartridge games in favor of disc format. Eventually everything will be online but there is still a large number of consumers that like to have the product in hand. That will change eventually as the younger generation grow up used to being able to press a button to play a movie instead of inserting a disc into a player.
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I can even see some of the current content companies transitioning into content/equipment companies.
Pay a $100/month fee and get a nice audio/video/internet system that will access the internet, and play a modest amount of 1st day/1st run content. Instead of just getting the DVR box and a wireless modem/router ...... the equipment could be built in together so that a subscriber could get their equipment along with their service ala the current cell phone model.
They are already giving away DVRs, and Modems, and satellite dishes, and damn near everything else. Sign a 2 year deal with an appropriate service plan and get the equipment necessary to live out your multimedia fantasies. lol How much more would a decent surround sound and 42' flat screen cost? Maybe $300 at cost? Given that the DVR and Satellite Dishes would become almost meaningless in an internet driven media .... they could afford to give away different equipment with a service agreement.
They could also make it so their equipment would not work on anyone else's network ... like current cell phones ..... and if someone didn't pay, they could shut them down and GPS the equipment.
There really are a whole lot of ways service providers could wind up going in the next decade.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Flash memory will need to change drastically for that to happen. Currently you can get an 8gb flash drive for around $20. I can get a pack of 15 Blank 4x BD-R with 25gb of storage for $25.
Flash has been around a lot longer and is already in heavy use so I can't see the price dropping that much but Blu Ray still isn't even the market share but give it a few years and you will see that same pack for under $10.
I did say 10 years from now, remember about 2 years ago a 8gb flash drive was $100 or more, as they increase the size the smaller ones get cheaper, you can get a 2gb for $3-5 and even that is mostly markup. They give me 8GB free occasionally with orders from Office Depot.
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IMO, memory cards are too expensive. It is the reason game consoles got away from Cartridge games in favor of disc format. Eventually everything will be online but there is still a large number of consumers that like to have the product in hand. That will change eventually as the younger generation grow up used to being able to press a button to play a movie instead of inserting a disc into a player.
I think they quit using cartridges because 10-12 years ago when Sony released the PS1 using discs, cartridges couldn't hold the amount of data required. They just never switched back, partly because discs are dirt cheap anymore, as memory cards will be.
IPods and similar devices are nothing more than memory cards to carry around music and video data. The portable CD player is all but extinct.
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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I did say 10 years from now, remember about 2 years ago a 8gb flash drive was $100 or more, as they increase the size the smaller ones get cheaper, you can get a 2gb for $3-5 and even that is mostly markup. They give me 8GB free occasionally with orders from Office Depot.
But a package of disc's will still be cheaper with more total memory. The production of a disc is very inexpensive compared to the production of that Flash drive. Not to mention they already have disc's being developed that have over a Terabyte of information.
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I think they quit using cartridges because 10-12 years ago when Sony released the PS1 using discs, cartridges couldn't hold the amount of data required. They just never switched back, partly because discs are dirt cheap anymore,
Cartridges could hold the memory. The N64 still used cartridges and it competed against the PS1. By time the Gamecube came out they were using mini discs.
Basically a cartridge you have the PC board process, attached the chips and then make a case to house it, or you can burn the game to a disc and slap a label on it. Plus a Cartridge is bigger and bulkier.
Yes as time goes on flash memory will be cheaper in price but will it ever be cheaper in price/manufacturing and hold more data then a disc?
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I did say 10 years from now, remember about 2 years ago a 8gb flash drive was $100 or more, as they increase the size the smaller ones get cheaper, you can get a 2gb for $3-5 and even that is mostly markup. They give me 8GB free occasionally with orders from Office Depot.
But a package of disc's will still be cheaper with more total memory. The production of a disc is very inexpensive compared to the production of that Flash drive. Not to mention they already have disc's being developed that have over a Terabyte of information.
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Yo don't think flash memory will cost A LOT less in 10 years?
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I think they quit using cartridges because 10-12 years ago when Sony released the PS1 using discs, cartridges couldn't hold the amount of data required. They just never switched back, partly because discs are dirt cheap anymore,
Cartridges could hold the memory. The N64 still used cartridges and it competed against the PS1. By time the Gamecube came out they were using mini discs.
Basically a cartridge you have the PC board process, attached the chips and then make a case to house it, or you can burn the game to a disc and slap a label on it. Plus a Cartridge is bigger and bulkier.
Yes as time goes on flash memory will be cheaper in price but will it ever be cheaper in price/manufacturing and hold more data then a disc?
Wonder how cheap cassettes and vinyl were compared to discs in the early days. From an energy standpoint alone, it is more efficient to read a card than spin a disc & laser, add in access times, read times, start up times. Care and storage space, cards have a lot of positives over discs.
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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