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Lots of people want to "fire Mangini" or "fire Daboll" or "get a real QB" etc. I decided to take a look at every aspect of our football team and see just EXACTLY where we are over/under performing so we can establish what needs fixed going forward.

In parenthesis is our league rank followed by our statistic and the league average to this point in the NFL season.

Offensive Passing:
Pass attempts/game (23rd) : 31.0 - NFL average : 33.7
Pass completions/gm (23rd) : 18.3 - NFL average : 20.8
Completion Pct (23rd) : 59.1% - NFL average : 61.8%
Pass Yds/gm (22nd) : 197.7 - NFL average : 224.2 {It's not good, but it's right in line with the amount we are throwing the football}
Pass Yds/attempt (19th) : 6.38 - NFL average : 6.66
Pass TD/gm (21st) : 1.00 - NFL average : 1.42
Pass INT/gm (13th) : 1.00 - NFL average : 1.05 {Our QBs have a done a good job not throwing interceptions...it's just that when they do they have been of the devastating pick-6 variety}
Sacks allowed/gm (4th) : 1.00 - NFL average : 1.98 {In terms of pass-blocking our offensive line is elite even with Lauvao out and a below avg RT}
QB rating (19th) : 75.3 - NFL average : 82.3 {And as an aside Seneca Wallace has a QB rating of 86.2 ABOVE AVG QB PLAY!...who'd have thunk it?}

Offensive Rushing:
Rush Att/gm (20th) : 26.0 - NFL average : 26.9 {Good lord run the football more}
Rush Yds/gm (11th) : 116.7 - NFL average : 108.4 {More yards with less attemps}
Rush Yds/att (9th) : 4.49 - NFL average : 4.03 {This is playoff caliber}
Rush TD/gm (5th) : 1.00 - NFL average : 0.68
Fumble/gm (27th) : 0.67 - NFL average : 0.27 {Ouch! Turnovers kill...again...sensing a theme with our offense yet?}

Total Offense:
Plays/gm (24th) : 57.0 - NFL average : 60.6 {looks like we're losing the TOP battle...need the ball more}
Yds/gm (19th) : 314.3 - NFL average : 332.6
Yds/play (15th) : 5.51 - NFL average : 5.49 {We are actually ABOVE AVG at gaining yards...we just don't get enough plays! Combination of TOP and TO's}
TD/gm (14th) : 2.00 - NFL average : 2.09
TO/gm (22nd) : 1.67 - NFL average : 1.32 {Again, ouch}
Pts/gm (19th) : 15.0 - NFL average : 20.2

So to summarize:
Passing : 19th
Rushing : 9th
Total : 15th
Points : 19th

So let's see what needs upgraded/fixed based on the numbers and how would I do it?

OLine : Add a RT either via FA/mid level draft pick (it's already an excellent unit)
RB : none (especially considering we get to add Hardesty next year)
QB : none (why? because our QB play is already avg to above avg. I think we have too many other needs to justify using a 1st round pick on this position for one more year. We aren't going to get an upgrade via FA and we already have our mid round pick in McCoy)
TE : none (I think this group is performing quite well)
WR : let's see...every other spot is either average to above average yet our offense as a whole is below average...one of these things is not like the other, one of these things doesn't belong. We might have the worst WR group in the NFL. We must must MUST upgrade this position. I spend our #1 draft pick right here and add a 2nd WR either via FA or mid-level draft pick.

Special Teams and Defense to come next!

Last edited by GraffZ06; 09/28/10 08:40 PM.

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Nice work!


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I think we can still be a good offense if (like you said) we run the ball more, which will help our passing game working off of play action (which we need to run more of).

Also the TOP get's a little skewed because of our defensive woes, there are only so many minutes in a football game and our defense hasn't been able to get us alot of 3 and outs.

If we can eliminate the penalties and bone headed plays in key situations, eliminate turnovers and run the ball more our offense should be able to make a significan't turn around.

I just can't see by those numbers how our coaches don't realize that running the ball effectively is what won us our last few games of the season last year. And it's not like we have been getting blown out top where we have to pass the ball. Every game we have played has been a close one.

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Very nicely done. This offense is leaps and bounds better than last year's - no question.


Can you add some data on Offensive penalties as well?
I think that will go a long way to show why we gain yards at an above average rate, yet are failing in TOP.


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You're inevitably going to get the "stats are for losers" reply.

I think you just need to add some sort of "Bonehead Error" or "Gamebreaking Gaff" column, and that would accurately depict this team.


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I couldn't find anywhere that broke down penalties between offense and defense but here are our total penalty ranks:

Penalties/gm (21st) : 7.3 - NFL average : 6.5
Pen Yds/gm (23rd) : 61.7 - NFL average : 55.9


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What I have seen from the team so far....

I think that the biggest problem with the team over the offseason was not moving and standing pat with the Massaquoi/Robiski combination. A wide reciever should have been added.

There has been way too much made of the errors of the team. There will be bad plays and turnovers in every game. The Browns are sitting at -1 for the season in turnover ratio, this is pretty good, but needs to be on the positive side. The two pick-6's hurt for sure and probably cost the team at least 1 win.

The have played better than 0-3, and not being blown out like last year when I was in full "fire Mangini" mode. I still have concerns about him as the long term solution for this team.


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lol I see a lot of the bottom half of the leagues stats. Pretty terrible in my opinion especially after drafting two WRs in the second half. DaBoll needs to go at the minimum.


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The great thing about #'s is that you can spin them to say what you want.

To say that we are good at QB with an old vet + career backup is just crazy. Neither of these guys is the answer now or for the future. No other team wanted them, yet they are what we need here? No thanks.


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Special Teams:

Kick Return Yds/Att (32nd) : 14.0 - NFL average : 23.7 {umm...hello? Where is Josh Cribbs? We're dead last, and it's not even close.}
Punt Return Yds/Att (25th) : 6.8 - NFL average : 9.1 {paging Josh Cribbs??}

Kick Return Yds Allowed/Att (11th) : 21.4 - NFL average : 23.7
Punt Yds Allowed/Att (7th) : 4.9 - NFL average : 9.1 {at least we can still cover kicks!}

It's absolutely amazing to me how far our return game has fallen so far this year. If we limit penalties and turnovers we can be an average or maybe even slightly above average offense but we're never going to be "elite". To make up for that we MUST start getting more production in terms of field position from our "special" teams. Let's hope Cribbs didn't take the money and run so to speak.


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Quote:

lol I see a lot of the bottom half of the leagues stats. Pretty terrible in my opinion especially after drafting two WRs in the second half. DaBoll needs to go at the minimum.




But way ahead of last year

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Quote:

Special Teams:

Kick Return Yds/Att (32nd) : 14.0 - NFL average : 23.7 {umm...hello? Where is Josh Cribbs? We're dead last, and it's not even close.}
Punt Return Yds/Att (25th) : 6.8 - NFL average : 9.1 {paging Josh Cribbs??}
.




As we all know - stats can be skewed to fit any angle - especially if the whole picture isn't looked at.

Have you noticed other teams kick away from Cribbs? Perhaps a better stat to look at would be our average starting point after the other team kicks off - in relation to what the nfl average is after a kickoff.

Same with punt returns.

A guy can't return that which is not kicked to him.

I'm not defending his production this year - just saying there may be more to look at than actual return yards. Stats - they can say anything you want them to.

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Quote:

Quote:

Special Teams:

Kick Return Yds/Att (32nd) : 14.0 - NFL average : 23.7 {umm...hello? Where is Josh Cribbs? We're dead last, and it's not even close.}
Punt Return Yds/Att (25th) : 6.8 - NFL average : 9.1 {paging Josh Cribbs??}
.




As we all know - stats can be skewed to fit any angle - especially if the whole picture isn't looked at.

Have you noticed other teams kick away from Cribbs? Perhaps a better stat to look at would be our average starting point after the other team kicks off - in relation to what the nfl average is after a kickoff.

Same with punt returns.

A guy can't return that which is not kicked to him.

I'm not defending his production this year - just saying there may be more to look at than actual return yards. Stats - they can say anything you want them to.




Which is why I'm trying to give all the stats in order to better see the entire picture. Anyway, our average starting field position this year is our 25.4 yard line (28th). The NFL average is the 29.7 yard line. That doesn't look any better. Not to mention, we are averaging FOURTEEN yards per kick return...you almost have to double that just to get to average. This from a team that has prided itself in having elite special teams units in the past (we were 7th in kick return yards/attempt last year and 3rd in punt return yards).


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You missed on of my favorite stats!

We have a running back in the top ten! When was the last time that happened?

Also, while both O and D are well up from last year, we are at #27 in points scored.

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Quote:

Quote:

lol I see a lot of the bottom half of the leagues stats. Pretty terrible in my opinion especially after drafting two WRs in the second half. DaBoll needs to go at the minimum.




But way ahead of last year




Point? Whoopie we're not being blown out by 21 pts now? I fail to follow your logic. These stats are horrible.


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How do you define progress?

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W's


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Quote:

Quote:

Special Teams:

Kick Return Yds/Att (32nd) : 14.0 - NFL average : 23.7 {umm...hello? Where is Josh Cribbs? We're dead last, and it's not even close.}
Punt Return Yds/Att (25th) : 6.8 - NFL average : 9.1 {paging Josh Cribbs??}
.




As we all know - stats can be skewed to fit any angle - especially if the whole picture isn't looked at.

Have you noticed other teams kick away from Cribbs? Perhaps a better stat to look at would be our average starting point after the other team kicks off - in relation to what the nfl average is after a kickoff.

Same with punt returns.

A guy can't return that which is not kicked to him.

I'm not defending his production this year - just saying there may be more to look at than actual return yards. Stats - they can say anything you want them to.




stats can be skewed or manipulated.But......

in this case the conclusions most of us reach make sense and confirms what we already know.

I'll bet when Graf posts the defense stats it will confirm what we already know as well.

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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

lol I see a lot of the bottom half of the leagues stats. Pretty terrible in my opinion especially after drafting two WRs in the second half. DaBoll needs to go at the minimum.




But way ahead of last year




Point? Whoopie we're not being blown out by 21 pts now? I fail to follow your logic. These stats are horrible.




Progress is the point. We're better than last year, point blank. You fail to follow my logic because either you have unrealistic expectations on how the team should be winning, or you don't know what logic is.

We progress from the last 2 or 3 teams in the league statistically last year to high teens/low 20s this year, and improve again next year - what happens? Well, we go from being blown out by 21 to losing close games to winning close games. Add a year, and maybe we're blowing teams out by 21.

That is called progress, that is how good teams are made - not the flash in the pan one season wonders.

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We went from the worst team in the league to bottom 3 teams in the league. Not something I am jumping up and down over. Our coaching staff is a joke, and we will be rebuilding again next year with a new coaching staff. But hey, stats wise we're very mediocre!

Teams are rebuilt in a year, see the Falcons after Matt Ryan, the CHargers who in one yr went from 4-12 to 12-4. As long as we have Holmgren pulling rank and reaching for Colt McCoy in the 3rd, an imbecile as an OC, lack of adjustments as a whole in the coaching staff we're not going anywhere.


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thanks for posting

it's nice to see some progress but definitely too many categories in the 20's (hence being 0-3). hopefully, we continue to make strides.


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WOW,, Nice work Graf.,.

I wonder how these stats stack up against our stats from the first three games of last season....

Statistically, that would tell us if we've gotten some improvement.. 0-3 is still 0-3 however..


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great work summarizing all my thoughts into one concise post. those stats look better than last year but we are still 0-3. we did lose by less than 10 each game, but still it feels like we suck worse than ever. it *feels* that way being the key word. it isn't reality. reality is we've been competitive in each of our games and led at the 4th quarter. reality is we are also 0-3. reality is we are statistically better than last season? which reality do you want? is the glass half full or half empty?

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Quote:

is the glass half full or half empty?




Usually, it just means that the glass is twice as big as it needs to be


We ARE better than we were last year, and we ARE bad this year.
This is what an improving hasn't-yet-arrived team looks like.




My hope is that the current trend continues and that we begin to see more an more positives (and Wins) as the season goes on. If so, we'll be able to view ourselves as being a team on the cusp of making the jump to the next level.

The league is riddled with one-hit-wonder teams - we were one in 2007 - that then fall back to their crappy level the following year.
The teams that build true lasting success usually preceded their jump to the next level with a season or two of always playing tough, close games and winning more as the season goes on... and the next offseason is what helps them over the hump to finally getting more wins than losses.


As long as we don't implode... and as long as Heckert and Holmgren don't blow the whole thing up... we should be on our way to being in good shape.


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Teams are rebuilt in a year, see the Falcons after Matt Ryan, the CHargers who in one yr went from 4-12 to 12-4.




Those are the exceptions, not the rule. Add to that we didn't have the opportunity to bolster our roster as those teams did in free agency this year due to the CBA issue and it was even more unfeasible. Your expectations are simply too lofty. I'm not a moral victory guy myself, but progress is improvement of the roster overall. Taking a look at our secondary, running backs, and QB play (mediocre stopgaps are upgrades to last year still), we're making progress.

The "Rome wasn't built in a day" adage applies.


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We went from the worst team in the league to bottom 3 teams in the league. Not something I am jumping up and down over. Our coaching staff is a joke, and we will be rebuilding again next year with a new coaching staff. But hey, stats wise we're very mediocre!

Teams are rebuilt in a year, see the Falcons after Matt Ryan, the CHargers who in one yr went from 4-12 to 12-4. As long as we have Holmgren pulling rank and reaching for Colt McCoy in the 3rd, an imbecile as an OC, lack of adjustments as a whole in the coaching staff we're not going anywhere.




We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm ok with making progress and having this take a couple years under Holmgren/Heckert - and you want it now. I can respect that. I truly believe we're a much better team than last year, despite the record. If we can not make the big mistakes (2 pick6's that cost us 2 games) and if we could hold onto a 4th quarter lead (cost us all 3 games), I think we'll turn the corner quickly. That being said, I don't (and didn't before the season) think we're a playoff team this year- but still think we can eek out 6-7 wins and surprise a few teams.

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We'll have to agree to disagree. I'm ok with making progress and having this take a couple years under Holmgren/Heckert - and you want it now. I can respect that. I truly believe we're a much better team than last year, despite the record. If we can not make the big mistakes (2 pick6's that cost us 2 games) and if we could hold onto a 4th quarter lead (cost us all 3 games), I think we'll turn the corner quickly. That being said, I don't (and didn't before the season) think we're a playoff team this year- but still think we can eek out 6-7 wins and surprise a few teams.




Not that I have a want it now attitude, I just dont find the results very encouraging. I dont see the progress that everyone here seems to have.


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I understand the value of doing this right now, when everyone is in panic mode, but I think stats are very easily skewed with only 3 games under our belt. We need to get a couple more games in there to normalize the data.

Also, someone mentioned that we don't have that many boneheaded plays, and that turnovers will happen. Well, discipline and smart/reliable play is supposed to be one of our strengths, and is supposed to offset our lack of talent. When that strength isn't there, it IS a big deal.


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You need to get with the program.
Losing,while not being blown out is an exceptable display of progress.This is year one of the current rebuilding cycle.But it could also be year two,depending on your particular point of view.
This team is much improved from last year's,and by god those stats prove it.
We are marching headlong into mediocrity and you better get on board,or one of Mangini's chior boys will politely ask you to step aside.


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.. " We are marching headlong into mediocrity.. "

I suspect this is some what the truth !

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Quote:

Not that I have a want it now attitude, I just dont find the results very encouraging. I dont see the progress that everyone here seems to have.



Not for nothing because as was stated, we have a limited sample but last year after 3 games, we were 0-3.. we had been outscored 95-29.. our average margin of defeat was 22 points...

Our offense was averaging 218 ypg and 13 points.. our defense was giving up 412 ypg and 32 points..

This year we are 0-3 but our average margin of defeat is 4 points and our offense is averaging 314 ypg and 15 points.. our defense is giving up 321 ypg and 19 points...

Statistically from this time last year.. it's night and day even though the record hasn't changed.. it's also night and day to watch.. we have been competitive this year last year at this time we were 0-3 and there wasn't a single person that could have made the argument that we were close to winning any of those games.. we've led every game this year at some point in the second half... we just need to stop with the stupid mistakes and learn how to finish.....


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You need to get with the program.
Losing,while not being blown out is an exceptable display of progress.This is year one of the current rebuilding cycle.But it could also be year two,depending on your particular point of view.
This team is much improved from last year's,and by god those stats prove it.
We are marching headlong into mediocrity and you better get on board,or one of Mangini's chior boys will politely ask you to step aside.




Its actually year 11 of the rebuilding process. By god those stats prove we still suck, congrats! Get a real OC here and we might have something. A loss is a Loss is a Loss plain and simple. You can get all worked up over a little offensive stats if you want to, but I wont, I want to live in the real world thanks. Mangini/DaBoll will be gone next year, so I will politely step aside as they leave town, hell I'll drive him to the city limits myself.


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Not for nothing because as was stated, we have a limited sample but last year after 3 games, we were 0-3.. we had been outscored 95-29.. our average margin of defeat was 22 points...

Our offense was averaging 218 ypg and 13 points.. our defense was giving up 412 ypg and 32 points..

This year we are 0-3 but our average margin of defeat is 4 points and our offense is averaging 314 ypg and 15 points.. our defense is giving up 321 ypg and 19 points...

Statistically from this time last year.. it's night and day even though the record hasn't changed.. it's also night and day to watch.. we have been competitive this year last year at this time we were 0-3 and there wasn't a single person that could have made the argument that we were close to winning any of those games.. we've led every game this year at some point in the second half... we just need to stop with the stupid mistakes and learn how to finish.....




I understand your point, but I still a team with almost no passing game to the WRs, a coach with his head up his ass, an OC that sucks and needs to go, terrible atrocious playcalling, devoid of any talent particually at the skills positions. Stop the "stupid mistakes" is a nice call to arms, but penalties happen for every team. I watched the Packers play and get two false starts only for Rodgers to complete a 2nd and 18. It happens, cant expect your team to play a perfect game every time. Its not going to happen. But I see when a mistake happens with our team its like the OC throws his hands up and says oh well, maybe next drive. Its frustrating as all hell. Sorry I am not going to get excited because our QB didnt throw 4 ints, he only threw one for a TD this game! I am not going to get excited about 180 yds passing and 17 pts. Thats pathetic. Thats what a good team does in a half.


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Quote:

We are marching headlong into mediocrity




Bad/Horrible team >>>>>>>>Mediocrity>>>>>>>>>>Good Team>>>>>>>Playoff caliber>>>>>>>SB Winner

What that demonstrates is that in order to move from a Bad/Horrible team to a SB Winner, you have to go through stages.. one of those stages is Mediocrity..

So, In our case anyway, Marching headlong into mediocrity is actually a good thing.. It's an improvement. I'm not a big stats guy, but that's also what the stats are saying.. Thats one of those for what it's worth kinda things I know,,

Quote:

and you better get on board,or one of Mangini's chior boys will politely ask you to step aside.




am I reading this right.. Are you saying that anyone that isn't ready to slit thier wrists over this team must be a Mangini chior boy? and that we'd ask naysayers to step aside?


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Daniel Patrick Moynahan

"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
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Defensive Passing:
Opponent Pass attempts/game (6th) : 29.3 - NFL average : 33.7 {opponents really don't pass on us much}
Opponent Pass completions/gm (9th) : 18.7 - NFL average : 20.8
Opp Comp Pct (18th) : 63.6% - NFL average : 61.8% {they don't pass often but they do it successfully}
Pass Yds/gm (12th) : 199.0 - NFL average : 224.2
Pass Yds/attempt (17th) : 6.78 - NFL average : 6.66 {again, we don't give up tons of yards because they just don't pass much, but when they do they get more yards than average}
Pass TD/gm (19th) : 1.67 - NFL average : 1.42
Pass INT/gm (10th) : 1.00 - NFL average : 1.05 {There are 12 teams tied with us so really we're average}
Sacks/gm (23rd) : 1.33 - NFL average : 1.98 {Hard to get sacks when they don't pass much but this HAS to get better}
QB rating (22nd) : 88.9 - NFL average : 82.3 {I'd venture to say this shows our pass defense isn't really all that great...again they just don't HAVE to throw much on us}

Defensive Rushing:
Opp Rush Att/gm (27th) : 32.0 - NFL average : 26.9 {Talk about running it down our throats}
Opp Rush Yds/gm (21st) : 122.7 - NFL average : 108.4 {As good as we run the football we're STILL getting out-rushed}
Rush Yds/att (12th) : 3.83 - NFL average : 4.03 {Well look there, we're really not that bad at stopping the run...they just run on us SO MUCH (hello TOP and 4th quarter)}
Rush TD/gm (1st) : 0.00 - NFL average : 0.68 {We haven't given up a rushing TD all year!}
Fumble forced/gm (5th) : 0.33 - NFL average : 0.27 {Again tied with 17 other teams}

Total Defense:
Plays/gm (19th) : 61.3 - NFL average : 60.6 {Not good but not as bad as I expected...they are just using more clock with less plays. Why? Running the football a ton}
Yds/gm (16th) : 321.7 - NFL average : 332.6 {solidly average}
Yds/play (15th) : 5.24 - NFL average : 5.49 {We are actually ABOVE AVG at giving up yards! Lots of this has to do with the amount our opp. runs though}
TD/gm (9th) : 1.67 - NFL average : 2.09 {Can't complain about that}
TO forced/gm (21st) : 1.33 - NFL average : 1.32 {Our offense has killed itself with TO and our D hasn't come through with big plays to counter that}
Pts/gm (14th) : 19.0 - NFL average : 20.2

So to summarize:
Passing : 17th
Rushing : 12th
Total : 15th
Points : 14th

Does this sound familiar? 1st down and 2nd down they run and we stop them for minimal gain. 3rd and medium to long they pass and convert. Drive continues. Repeat. We have GOT to figure out a way to limit 3rd down conversions and get their offense off the field. Our offense is performing decent as well, we just need the ball more. Also somebody on defense has to step up and make a big play every now and then.

So what needs help here?

DLine: Rotational depth via FA/mid level draft They really aren't performing bad against the run at all, but our starters are aging and we'll need depth.
LB : HAVE to find a pass rusher (1st/2nd round draft pick). They're doing good against the run, but letting teams convert 3rd downs by throwing the ball screams for a pass rush.
DB : Statistically they haven't been as good as I thought. Let's hope it's just due to them being young, but if the numbers don't turn around we may need MORE help in the secondary again next year.


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Fear us, for we are the BROWNS, led by the mighty BM! Only in Cleveland.
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Quote:

Bad/Horrible team >>>>>>>>Mediocrity>>>>>>>>>>Good Team>>>>>>>Playoff caliber>>>>>>>SB Winner

What that demonstrates is that in order to move from a Bad/Horrible team to a SB Winner, you have to go through stages.. one of those stages is Mediocrity..




The funny thing is that the "mediocrity stage" and sometimes the "good team" stage are not always marked by a lot of wins... you see this a lot from the teams that go from being apparently bad to being pretty good almost "overnight"... typically they were playing much better just not winning a lot before, then they add a piece or two, make a change or two and viola, that's the difference between winning close games and losing them and people say they changed overnight when in fact, they changed over several years but the results were seen overnight.


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Quote:

I understand the value of doing this right now, when everyone is in panic mode, but I think stats are very easily skewed with only 3 games under our belt. We need to get a couple more games in there to normalize the data.




I completely agree with this and would love to revisit all these numbers again maybe at the mid-way point and end of the year and compare. Until then, it was meant to provide a little perspective and insight into our team beyond "wow we suck let's fire them all".


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That's fair. I don't see it in record, but see it in stats. That gives me some hope that we can still do well record-wise this year.

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Actually, what would be good is to see the change on a week to week basis in a graph.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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yeah, Houston has been stuck in that mediocrity stage for the past several seasons. they kept getting 4th quarter leads (see both Indy games last year) and just could not close them out.

so far this season, they were able to get over the hurdle of closing against Indy. still to be seen if they have really jumped up into the 'good' category or not.


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