DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum A Quantitative Analysis of Frye and OL problems in the Chargers Game

As I scroll through these boards I continue to hear competing claims from many on whether the many sacks and knockdowns to have affected the Browns offense this year are mainly a problem with Frye holding the ball to long, or the offensive line's pure pass protection. I decided to try to find a quantitative solution, by timing how long Frye is holding the ball on every passing play vs. how long a similar QB (Rivers, first year starter, but 3rd year in league) holds onto the ball. I also track the times at which pressure first affects the quarterback (these times relate to when the QB is forced to move or react to an oncoming blitzer. While it sounds flaky, it is very obvious when the QB makes an escape move, or suddenly jerks to avoid a rusher.)

Also note, the last 1:40 of the game didn't come with my torrent for some reason, so I don't have data for that.

Procedure:

Using Multitrack Stopwatch (http://www.download.com/MultiTrack-Stopwatch/3000-2350_4-10146154.html?tag=lst-0-1) and the torrent of the Chargers game. I timed from the snap to the release of each passing play for both QBs. If the dropback did not end in a pass i timed to the point where there was either a sack (QBs arms were wrapped by defender), run (QB crossed the line of scrimmage), Fumble (ball left QB's hands), or throwaway (QB threw ball)

I also timed to the point where the QB first had to make some movement to avoid pressure. This does not include stepping up into the pocket if it is done with the QBs regular passing beat (i.e. the QB slides into the open area, as opposed to jerking to avoid an iminant threat) Although it sounds hard to define, watching the footage it is pretty obvious, and it was done equally for both QBs, so any errors should equal out.

Each time was checked twice, and if the times disagreed by more than 0.1 seconds, more datapoints were taken until a consensus was reached (I got really good at this near the end, and usually two datapoints agreed to within 0.02 or so.)

Data:
Charlie Frye ?
21 pressures in 55 dropbacks (38%)
Average time of pressure: 2.28s
Average time to passes before pressure: 2.43s (how long did he hold onto the ball on plays he got rid of the ball before pressure got to him?)


Philip Rivers -
6 pressures in 33 dropbacks (18%)
Average time of pressure: 2.24s
Average time to passes before pressure: 2.55s

Apparently, Frye is holding onto the ball about the same amount of time (and even a little bit shorter) than Rivers hold onto the ball, despite this fact, Frye is forced to flee from defenders more than twice as often. (Obviously Rivers gets to hold onto the ball against a mostly anemic Browns pass rush as well) however, San Diego rarely blitzed Frye this entire game, and in fact, every pass but one where Frye holds onto the ball over 3 seconds came at the very end of the game when San Diego is playing the prevent defense.

Here are the first half stats in comparison:

Charlie Frye ?
11 pressures in 23 dropbacks (48%)
Average time of pressure: 2.28s
Average time to passes before pressure: 2.18s (how long did he hold onto the ball on plays he got rid of the ball before pressure got to him?)


Philip Rivers -
3 pressures in 19 dropbacks (16%)
Average time of pressure: 2.34s (only 3 datapoints though)
Average time to passes before pressure: 2.62s

And we see that in a balanced part of the game, Frye is getting rid of the ball significantly earlier than Rivers, and still facing significantly more pressure.

Watching the plays in this way provided even more striking evidence than just the numbers themselves. Rivers had much more time than Frye in the pocket (due both to a better OL and an anemic Browns pass rush) and Frye never had much time at all until the end of the game when San Diego went into the prevent defense. Remember this is a San Diego defense without Merriman as well, they should not have been getting to Frye this early, or forcing him to throw this quickly.

There are obviously a lot of hard to keep track of variables in here (how many blockers were left back etc.) but the purpose of this is to show that Frye is not getting a lot of time in the pocket. (Hopefully I will be able to analyze a non-Browns game soon, to see what QBs get in the average NFL game. A quick run through of 20 plays from the first quarter of the Indy/Philly game tonight seemed to show it is far longer than 2.18 seconds that most QBs are holding the ball. You're free to interpret the data however you want of course, and if you have a better idea on how to quantitatively do this, I'm open to suggestions. I can also provide anybody a complete sheet of every play, if you want it, just PM me.

~Lyuokdea

[color:"white"]A worthwhile thread comes out of the chaos, hehe.

It's a good one Luk. Eventually, the evidence will continue to mount that the line is the biggest culprit here.

Frye carries his own cross, but if it weren't for Frye's escapability, let's say it was Couch under center, we'd be well over 50 sacks right now.

Priorities Opie, priorities.[/color]

Wonderful effort, but I don't want analysis anymore. I just want some linemen. Real men that play football,....

I don't discount our players' efforts. But this is the NFL, and our group is just not good enough for this level of play. Your analysis proves it. So does our record. We stink in the trenches, can't run, move or throw the ball against the worst defense in the league.

That is a great breakdown, thanks for the effort.

[color:"orange"]It's a shame this thread was ignored, nice effort. [/color]

Went through and used the same methods from above on the Jets game. Where Frye looked pretty good (except for one ridiculous pass):

Frye:
9 pressures in 28 dropbacks (32%)
Average time to pressure: 2.70 seconds
Average time to passes before pressure: 2.41 seconds

Pennington:
11 pressures in 30 dropbacks (37%)
Average time to pressure: 2.51 seconds
Average time to passes before pressure: 2.54 seconds

A couple things to note. We're playing a very equivilent team, the Jets don't have much of an offensive line (they will, but it's very young at key positions). So Pennington is also getting knocked around. They also don't have much of a pass rush without Abraham, so Frye was definately getting more time here than in the chargers game. Also, Droughns had 125 rush yards and we were able to successfully set up play action on several occasions. (And we got noticiably more time on the play action, as it was being respected by the jets pitiful run D.) We also continued to blitz late into the game instead of just playing prevent defense as we did against Pittsburgh, it made a big difference.

And given time and a similar amount of pressure to Pennington this game, Frye far outperformed Pennington on the field.

I am planning to go through the Indy/Patriots game at some point in the future. (It might not be awhile because I'm getting close to finals.) Why this game? Because these are the types of games we hope to be able to play soon, both QBs are known to have good protection, but both defenses also have a good pass rush. This is a championship quality game, and we need to be able to play like these teams do in games this good in the future.

~Lyuokdea

CF makes mistakes like a lot of QBs, yet despite his lack of experience, some posters, following a bad game, want to draft Brady Quinn instead of focusing on the real problem:

offensive line. Yeah let's draft a QB in the 1st. LOL that'l work out.

Lyuokdea, thanks for the effort.

Real interesting stuff. I'd like to see what CF can do if we actually get a line. I'm not saying he's Canton bound but you gotta give the kid a line before you throw him to the curb.

This is actually information that the Browns have probably broken down.

It confirms my perceptions, after watching and rewatching the games, that Frye is not the problem.

[color:"orange"]I was rewatching the Pittsburgh game, and noticed that the delayed blitz Pittsburgh was bring was absolutely killing us.

Frye would get the snap and Pittsburgh would seemingly bring 4 guys leaving Fraley to help clean up for the Guards (who kept getting beat), as soon as Fraley would go help the guard Pittsburgh would send a LB who had a clear shot at Frye, thus flushing him out of the pocket. It happened a handful of times against Pittsburgh.

Using playcation so much is also hurting, because no team respects the run, yet we continue to have Frye turn his back on the defense to fake the hand off. [/color]

Wow! It's amazing the difference that that little half second makes in the performance. Of course there are a myriad of other factors involved there, but looking at just this one metric is pretty damned eye-opening.

Maybe I am looking at it wrong, but the time difference is minimal from a Oline standpoint.....the problem could be Chucks.....slower release or just takes a fraction longer to decide what to do with the ball.......or....the receivers don't get open soon enough.

At any rate.....I don't know what to make of the information, but it was indeed a great effort on Lukes part.

Thanks for the effort!

[color:"orange"]Regardless of CF being "IT" or not - He is not at the top of the list of things to fix without a doubt.

JMHO...good study Luk.

We all know why you do not know what to make of this information, and the word you give for that reason is not allowed to be posted on this message board. It's not a bad word either, it's a word to describe one's knowledge.

LOL....

I think people will be able to identify the dumbass in this conversation.

Excellent work. I was working on something like this myself because I was caught in the middle as well -- I couldn't decide where the problem was -- with Charlie or with the OL. This certainly points me in the other direction.

Thank you very much for your extensive work! I'll have to re-evaluate a few of my opinions now.

That is awesome work! I appreciate all your efforts on this! I am intrigured to see what indy's time's are. I am really impressed great job!

Nice work.
Most important info is the number of pressures...but the times seem to indicate that he's not holding the ball too long to cause pressures.

The pressures is a big number. We also see a small difference in time to throw.



2.43 v 2.55....1/10 of a second....Is that really that much in the scheme of things?? Maybe it is....I don't know.

Is Frye breaking out in that 10th because he has to, because he doesn't see open receivers, are all the receivers covered??

Is the time we have in line with the real NFL average and the other teams inflated because we just have a bad pass rush?? Charlies time might be right in line and other qbs just get more time when they face us.....what kind of time does Rivers get when he faces teams other than the Browns??


It's good information but I still don't know what to make of it.??

[color:"white"] I think people will be able to identify the dumbass in this conversation. [/color]

LMFAO <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" />

Right now the polls are at 85 percent vs 15 percent <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

By the way the word is 'stupidity'. I was warned by the hire ups that it's an unacceptable word on here to describe posters.

I was warned after I wrote, "The stupidity on this site has hit an all time high."

[color:"white"]Well Hell, stop posting and it'll start going back down again <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> [/color]

So what are you telling me for <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" />

[color:"white"]Well, apparently you're not as smart as he is so he's doing you the courtesy of informing you <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" /> [/color]

Well written post, the reason it's getting little response is because it's easier to bash Frye than to look the the true problem in the eye. Next, look at the rushing difference from SD to Cleve and then look at it from NYJ to Cleveland. Your eyes will open wider.

J/C on you Soup...

Questions for all the OL gurus: Is the OL's decrease in productivity because their skills have declined from last year? Is the problem at all related to the scheme? Are we using the right blocking scheme for the personnel we have?

These are questions I've had. Any thoughts?

Not always.

For example. We have a play where the RG and RT pull to the right on a toss play. Heiden is supposed to block the defensive end. The DE beats Heiden the majority of the time blowing up the play on a regular basis. Yet the O-Coordinators continue to call that play, and we continue to have trouble executing it.

I would just stop calling that play, but hey, that's just me.