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Since the other thread is about to get locked....carry on here.


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@YTown:

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Now, let me ask you a question. Do you honestly see Colt McCoy, no matter what we can realistically put around him, as a Super Bowl quality QB?




I don't see any reason why he couldn't be.

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Do you think that he can take a team, and overcome the inevitable setbacks and injuries that befall every single team in the NFL, and still lead his team to a championship?




Sure. Why not?

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I'm just trying to get a grasp on why you think that?

I mean, I like Colt. I wanted nothing more than for Colt to succeed. But as I watched some of the games, even early on this season (and they haven't got better), I noticed that Colt was literally doing nothing good. I was trying to think of all the things that make a good QB (good decisions, good pocket presence, good arm, accurate, hits receivers in stride, takes the team on his back, etc.) and Colt wasn't doing any of it.

Hell, he was not doing anything that he was supposed to be good at (quick smart reads, accurate short passes, etc.). We have had receivers slowing down all season in order to catch the ball, throws at the feet throws over heads, throws too far right and left, throws when receivers have to stop, throws when receivers 5 yards behind the ball, numerous should be interceptions, numerous knock downs at the line, tons of sacks because Colt doesn't step up in the pocket, sacks because he leaves the pocket to early. I mean, what can anyone say Colt did good this year (other than a pass or two a game--which I forgot to add, is SAD when that's all we have to go off of)? Escapability maybe. So I ask honestly, what has Colt showed you that made him appear like he could be the future?

Now, I'm really not trying to write Colt off completely (only as a starter for this team). While he hasn't done anything spectacular for this team, he really hasn't been terrible. He just hasn't showed me ANYTHING that made him look like he'd be a superstar (or even solid starter) in this league.

And I get it. I've heard it a thousand times for 13 years-- He doesn't have any WR's, or a running game, or the line sucks, or the defense sucks, etc. etc. etc. I don't really care about that. Good receivers don't help your accuracy, arm strength, or decision making. They do help timing, I'll give you that, but not the type of timing where your QB is blatantly late to throwing it. And despite what anyone says, our line has been pretty solid (all things considered) this year, especially in pass blocking.

You're judged by how you are playing in the moment. We can't keep making the excuse that "once we get a better team around him he'll improve." Well no sh*t he'll improve. Everyone in the league will improve with better players all around him.

I want a player at my most important position to help improve those around him, not the other way around.


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Quote:

I'm just trying to get a grasp on why you think that?




Okay.

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I mean, I like Colt. I wanted nothing more than for Colt to succeed. But as I watched some of the games, even early on this season (and they haven't got better),




You're right. The play by the Browns hasn't gotten any better as the year has gone on. It's actually gotten worse.

Quote:

I noticed that Colt was literally doing nothing good. I was trying to think of all the things that make a good QB (good decisions, good pocket presence, good arm, accurate, hits receivers in stride, takes the team on his back, etc.) and Colt wasn't doing any of it.




There have been bad decisions made by Colt. I'm not saying that there weren't. I don't think his pocket presence (but to be fair, there hasn't been much of a pocket) is too big of a problem.

When the team has to ad-lib the play from the moment that the ball has been hiked, it doesn't make a young QBs job any easier.

His arm strength isn't nearly as bad as many say that it is. Every QB doesn't have as much throwing power while on the run. They might have more accuracy because they're generally throwing to the side that they're running towards.

He's not seeing open receivers that can be hit in stride very often. I suppose that he if threw picks while targeting tightly covered receivers underneath that you might be saying something else to criticize him about. Of course, dropped passes mean nothing and first downs to continue drives are overrated.

Quote:

You're judged by how you are playing in the moment. We can't keep making the excuse that "once we get a better team around him he'll improve." Well no sh*t he'll improve. Everyone in the league will improve with better players all around him.




And that all goes to receivers holding onto the ball and our RBs (Ogbonnaya excepted) averaging 3 yards per carry. Absolutely, any player that gets surrounded by better talent will play better. Surround any player, including a good one with crap and they'll be effected negatively and their play will suffer.

Quote:

I want a player at my most important position to help improve those around him, not the other way around.




I just want competency at every position. The Browns lack competency in a lot of key positions.

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McCoy has had solid pockets in his past few games. He has had more time than most QBs get against those same defenses.

NO QB gets all day to throw on every single play. None. I go back to the Bernie Kosar days. Kosar loved when a team would blitz, because it gave him single coverage on the outside somewhere. He would attack that single coverage down the field, and hit the receiver at his break so that he could take a medium pass and break it big.

McCoy does not do this. He cannot hit the medium passes to the outside with any consistency. He does not put the ball on the receivers at their breaks with any consistency at all. I can remember one throw to Greg Little a few games back, a slant, that was perfect. The ball was in Little's hands as soon as he hit his break. It was beautiful. It is also the only time I can remember seeing it. It stands out so clearly.

McCoy's deep passes float. They wobble. They take all day to get to the receivers. The receivers have to slow down, or stop. I watch other offenses ... other QBs ....... and they hit their receivers with far greater consistency. They are able to attack the middle of the field effectively. They create big plays. McCoy is 8th in total passing attempts. He has 463 passes attempted. He has only 26 passes of 20+ yards. Before we attack the receivers ...... he had almost exactly the same receivers last year, and he had 23 such passes in only 222 pass attempts. He is not getting better. I have said it before, and I stand by it today ..... any QB, and I mean ANY QB can complete 5 yard passes. These are not the passes where a great QB cuts his teeth. These are not the passes that make a great QB. The attacking passes are what make a QB great. I can stand in a pocket and throw a ball to a guy standing still 5 yards away. Most people could. Any NFL QB can. These are the "gimmes". They are the last resort.

You say that play by the Brown has gotten worse over the years. Really? The OL has improved greatly. They are running the ball better. Their defense has had its ups and downs, but they have played decently in some games. They allow far far too many yards rushing ...... and their pass defense is not as good as their ranking ..... but they are far better than we had any right to expect when the season started, especially given the rookies, and complete change in scheme.

You talk about competency. I agree that we lack competency at many positions. Where we disagree is that I feel that the QB is a leading factor in the problems this team is having, and you feel that it is a reactive factor, and that he struggles because of the team around him.

I do agree that we have had far too many dropped passes, yet he has also had catches made for him by his receivers. It is much like INTs for a QB ..... he had had some dropped, actually, a lot dropped .... but in the end, he is what he is, and his numbers are what they are ..... and what his numbers say is that he is not a starter level QB.

I have laid out the things I see in depth. I have laid out my reasons for what I say in depth.


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Quote:

McCoy has had solid pockets in his past few games. He has had more time than most QBs get against those same defenses.




The Browns OL has allowed Colt McCoy to get hit 74 times this season. That's the fifth most in the NFL, behind STL, SEA, WAS, and MIA.

The Browns average 3.5 ypc in the running game. That's atrocious! If it wasn't for Ogbonnaya, those would be even worse.

They're doing a swell job though.

Quote:

NO QB gets all day to throw on every single play. None.




I'm not asking them to have all day to throw on every single play. At this point, I'd settle for mediocrity on the OL. We're not even getting that from the OL.

Quote:

I go back to the Bernie Kosar days. Kosar loved when a team would blitz, because it gave him single coverage on the outside somewhere. He would attack that single coverage down the field, and hit the receiver at his break so that he could take a medium pass and break it big.




Bernie Kosar had legitimate targets to throw the ball to. Are you seriously suggesting that these receivers compare? Or that Shurmur equates to Schottenheimer in coaching ability?

Quote:

McCoy does not do this. He cannot hit the medium passes to the outside with any consistency. He does not put the ball on the receivers at their breaks with any consistency at all. I can remember one throw to Greg Little a few games back, a slant, that was perfect. The ball was in Little's hands as soon as he hit his break. It was beautiful. It is also the only time I can remember seeing it. It stands out so clearly.




Then you aren't watching the games. Even the elite QBs don't hit every throw to their receivers. They do have incomplete passes too but with better receivers than what we have on this team. I'm one that supported (trusted Holmgren & Heckert) the selection of Greg Little and there were quite a few that criticized the pick. I'm here to say that they were right. Little is garbage! I don't care about the number of catches that he has. I'm concerned with the number of dropped passes that he has.

Quote:

McCoy's deep passes float. They wobble. They take all day to get to the receivers. The receivers have to slow down, or stop. I watch other offenses




How often have we thrown the ball down field? We don't have the weapons to go down field with passes and we run the WCO which relies heavily on timing and accurate route runners. We don't have the weapons for the WCO but we're trying to run it. That might be some of the reason why we're staring a 4-12 season in the face.

Quote:

...and they hit their receivers with far greater consistency.




They hit their receivers... not ours.

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They are able to attack the middle of the field effectively. They create big plays. McCoy is 8th in total passing attempts. He has 463 passes attempted. He has only 26 passes of 20+ yards. Before we attack the receivers ...... he had almost exactly the same receivers last year, and he had 23 such passes in only 222 pass attempts.




That tells me that Mangini & Daboll are better than Shurmur. If pressed to declare whether I thought that Mangini was better than Shurmur, it would be difficult to deny it.

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You say that play by the Brown has gotten worse over the years. Really? The OL has improved greatly.




How? When has the right side of the line ever been addressed? And prior to drafting Joe Thomas, the left side was never addressed either. Who knew that Eric Steinbach would mean so much to that OL unit? Can you honestly tell me that Lauvao and Pashos are better than what we've had there in the past? If you do then there isn't much for us to talk about regarding the OL.

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They are running the ball better.




Averaging 3.5 ypc for the season is better? If it wasn't for Ogbonnaya, the Browns would have been under 3 ypc against Putzburgh last Thursday.

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Their defense has had its ups and downs, but they have played decently in some games. They allow far far too many yards rushing ...... and their pass defense is not as good as their ranking ..... but they are far better than we had any right to expect when the season started, especially given the rookies, and complete change in scheme.




All defenses have ups and downs, but the Browns linebackers flat-out suck!

Quote:

You talk about competency. I agree that we lack competency at many positions. Where we disagree is that I feel that the QB is a leading factor in the problems this team is having, and you feel that it is a reactive factor, and that he struggles because of the team around him.




I think that the Browns suffer because of poor play by the offensive weapons that the Browns have and utilize. I'd like to see the offense use the TEs more as receiving threats, but apparently Shurmur has other ideas.

Quote:

I do agree that we have had far too many dropped passes, yet he has also had catches made for him by his receivers.




There have been a few great catches by the receiving corps, but that's what you should expect from them. McCoy should be able to trust his WRs to go up and get high balls or to make plays on imperfectly thrown passes. All QBS (even good ones) expect that their receivers will do it.

Quote:

It is much like INTs for a QB ..... he had had some dropped, actually, a lot dropped .... but in the end, he is what he is, and his numbers are what they are ..... and what his numbers say is that he is not a starter level QB.




Okay. In the end, it's what his numbers are. That applies to the receivers as well. And they lead the league in dropped passes. How many of those dropped passes would have been first downs or scores? How many of dropped passes were drive killers?

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I have laid out the things I see in depth. I have laid out my reasons for what I say in depth.




Yep, you have. So have I.

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We play defenses. I know that's hard to believe, but we also play some defenses are damn good at stopping the run.

We are 13 games in. It is easy now to see who is good at what.

The Steelers allow 97 yard rushing per game on average. We ran for 98 yards.

The Ravens allow 85 yards/game. We ran for 59.

Cincinnati allows 100 per game. We ran for 134.

Jacksonville allows 110 per game,. We ran for 148.

St Louis allows 156 per game. We ran for 126.

Houston allows 91 yards rushing per game. We ran for 44.

San Francisco allows 70. We ran for 65.

Seattle allows 104. We ran for 141.

So in 5 of our last 8 games, we ran for more yards than the defenses allow on average. We were well behind in the Baltimore and Houston games, which stifled rushing opportunities. We weren't exactly shut down rushing against St Louis, but we did not rush for what the normally allow.

We are really not being destroyed in the run game. We are getting about what defense susually allow, except, of ourse, when we get way behind.

Quote:

I'm not asking them to have all day to throw on every single play. At this point, I'd settle for mediocrity on the OL. We're not even getting that from the OL.




This OL has given nice pockets quite often over the past few games. Look at Baltimore. They are the very best pass rushing team in the NFL. They sacked Smith 9 times the week before they played us. They sacked the Colts QBs 4 times the week after they played us. They sacked McCoy 3 times. Nothing extraordinary there. The Steelers sacked him 3 times. Cincinnati sacked him twice. he is not under extraordinary pressure. He gets pressure on plays. He gets pressure when blitzed. There are also times where the line reacts beautifully, and even picks up overloads. This OL is about average for the NFL.

It will be interesting to see how Arizona does against our OL with a different QB. They have more sacks than San Francisco, Miami, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee, and Indianapolis.

Teams that we have played, and with more sacks than Arizona are St Louis, Cincinnati, Houston, and Baltimore. Arizona has sacked the QB 10 times in the past 2 weeks.

You play the teams you play. Sometimes you face teams with tough pass rushes., You cannot just throw your hands up and go "Oh well, they pressured our QB so we just couldn't do anything." Tom Heckert said that QBs are going to get sacked. The implication is that they still have to make plays. McCoy is not making plays. People talk about Gabbert. He has 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 330 attempts. McCoy has 26 in 443 attempts. They are similar quality QBs ... yet some people love one and disparage the other. One is a rookie, one is a guy with almost 2 years under his belt. Gabbert has (now) has 11 TD and 10 INT on the year. (12 starts) McCoy has 14 TD and 11 INT in 13 games. Gabbert has been sacked 38 times on the year in 352 attempts. . McCoy has been sacked 32 times in 13 games, and 463 pass attempts. They are similar QBs ..... except that Gabbert wasn't supposed to be ready this year ..... yet got thrown into the fire in his 2nd game. McCoy had half a season to watch and learn, then has had the 2nd season as undisputed starter.

I am not impressed.

Quote:

Even the elite QBs don't hit every throw to their receivers.




No they don't. They have bad throws. They have dropped passes. They have tipped balls. We might have some problems with receivers, but the way you can judge a QB is how he throws the ball. Does he throw catchable passes? Does he put the ball in a position where the receiver can run with it after the catch? Does he make the receiver stop or slow down for a pass, or does he hit them in stride, or at their break. I see in McCoy a guy who is most comfortable with very short routes where the receiver is stationary. He is terrible on outs. I can remember one effectively thrown out this year. He is not hitting the seams. he throws short passes, and he does not throw them where receivers can make plays.

McCoy has completed 74% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage.

He completes 60% from 1-10 yards.

These are the "gimmes".

11-20, 44.6%
21-30, 55.6% (only 18 attempts)
31-40, 23.5%. (only 17 attempts)
41 and up he is 1 of 2.

I am trying to think of a comparable QB, and decided to look at Matt Moore.(and I decided on him without peeking ahead)

Behind the LOS: 81%
1-10 yards: 66.1%
11-20 yards: 58%
21-30 yards: 25% (5 of 20)
31-40 yards: 50% (5-50)
41+ yards: 0-4.

I think that I would take Moore.

Who else can I compare ...... Maybe Tavaris Jackson:

Behind the LOS: 71.4%
1-10 yards: 69.2%
11-20 yards: 53.6%
21-30 yards: 24% (6-25)
31-40 yards: 18.8% (3-16)
41+ yards: 25% 1-4


McCoy and Jackson are very similar QBs.

Are Matt Moore and Tavaris Jackson the QB you want to hitch your star to? I wouldn't want to.


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Quote:

How often have we thrown the ball down field? We don't have the weapons to go down field with passes and we run the WCO which relies heavily on timing and accurate route runners. We don't have the weapons for the WCO but we're trying to run it. That might be some of the reason why we're staring a 4-12 season in the face.




We have excellent receiving TEs and RBs. Comparing McCoy to the above QBs shows that we have rthrown the ball down the field 21+ yards 37 times. Moore has done so 44 times. Jackson has done so 45 times. Limited QBs don't throw the ball down the field, because they are not capable of doing so, and it is outside of their comfort zone.

Quote:

How? When has the right side of the line ever been addressed?




The right side has improved over the course of the season. We have faced some quality pass rushes. We have done better than other teams have done blocking their pass rushes. NO QB will ever escape pressure. Some, like Rodgers, will have far superior pass blocking lines, but even he gets pressure from time to time. The difference is that he makes plays, and McCoy wilts.

Quote:

I think that the Browns suffer because of poor play by the offensive weapons that the Browns have and utilize. I'd like to see the offense use the TEs more as receiving threats, but apparently Shurmur has other ideas.




If the QB does not have the ability to hit the TE down the seam, is that the coach's fault? The fact is that teams have figured out what McCoy can, and cannot do, and have adjusted to what he does. They know what he prefers to do. They know what his favorite passes and tendencies are. They have adjusted, and McCoy has been unable to adjust in turn.


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One thing that I just saw and found rather surprising ......

McCoy is tied with another NFL QB in terms of being sacked. He has been sacked 32 times ...... same as ......... Aaron Rodgers. McCoy has been sacked 32 times in 463 pass attempts, and Rodgers 32 times in only 438 attempts.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:

Another Hypothetical (for those in the "trade up for Luck" camp)

Assume we obtain the 6th and 25th pick - which Scenario do you prefer? (Going off the McShay Big board)

A: Trade #6, #25, 2013 1st Rounder for #1 Overall Pick
Sign Andrew Luck

B:
#6 - Matt Barkley
Trade #25, 2013 1st Round Pick for #10
10 - Justin Blackmon

C:
#6 - Justin Blackmon
Trade #25, 2013 1st round pick for #10
10 - RG3

In this scenario I'm getting people exactly where they are slotted (which is somewhat lucky) -- but my points is:

Is Luck a Justin Blackmon better than the next two QBs in the draft? Because that's what the extra first round picks are worth.




I do A or B...Both FIX our biggest problem...McCoy...

BUT...Barkley won't be there at 6 because either Miami or Washington would be at 4 or 5...

AND...Blackmon's gone at 2 or 3 to St Louis...

SO...Don't screw around and win one of these last 3 MEANINGLESS games...Take our lumps and end up at FOUR...We will then do our talkin' to Indy for Luck...If they don't wanna hear it we then SIT at 4 and listen for action at 2 or 3 from Miami and/or Washington...IF they r makin' noise we then make our move and secure Barkley...

Our consolation prize would be Blackmon...

Indy--Luck
Rams/Minny---One trades out with Washington or Miami for Barkley to get ahead of US...The other takes the Left Tackle...
Browns--Blackmon...

WE MUST GET THE 4 SPOT!!!!!!!!!!!


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Quote:

One thing that I just saw and found rather surprising ......

McCoy is tied with another NFL QB in terms of being sacked. He has been sacked 32 times ...... same as ......... Aaron Rodgers. McCoy has been sacked 32 times in 463 pass attempts, and Rodgers 32 times in only 438 attempts.




That should tell you something right there. But, how many QB hits has Rodgers taken compared with Colt McCoy?

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I will tell you what that tells us....it's that Rodgers gets sacked and then comes back the next play and still gets a 1st down and the drive going...with McCoy any false start penalty or sack and the drive is essentially over as a 3rd&10+ for him is like a 3rd&30 for other QBs....we often do not even try to convert them....remember the inside handoff to Obi vs PIT on 3rd&20?


To get back to the thread: I'm reading more and more that Blackmon isn't in the same class of AJ Green/Julio Jones...he reminds me more of Crabtree...still good but not as elite and not sure I'd spend a Top 5 pick on a perimeter player in that class...just get the best QB available


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I'm not asking them to have all day to throw on every single play. At this point, I'd settle for mediocrity on the OL. We're not even getting that from the OL.




Bull crap. The O-line is playing well this year. Our RT SUCKS, but the other four guys are doing a good job.


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Graff...for reference purposes only, I'm posting your draft info from the other thread...

Also, the Falcons beat the Jags last night 41-14...the Falcons are now 9-5 and the Jags are 4-10.


Re: Atlanta and Draft Order Part III [Re: Flap]
#878198 - 12/13/11 02:45 PM

I can't post my normal spread sheet of the updated draft order this week b/c my laptop is dead at the moment....but here is the text version of the current draft order.

Any differing orders are either incorrect, or they are including the rest of the teams opponents into their strength of schedule even though they haven't actually played them yet. My list only includes those opponents whom each team has actually played to this point. So it's literally a "if the season ended today" draft order.

Without further ado...

Pos/Team/Record/SoS

1. Indianapolis Colts 0-13 .5503
2. St Louis Rams 2-11 .5562
3. Minnesota Vikings 2-11 .5740
4. Carolina Panthers 4-9 .4793 (Conf% tie-breaker)
5. Washington Redskins 4-9 .4793
6. Cleveland Browns 4-9 .4970
7. Miami Dolphins 4-9 .5089
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 .5325
9. Tampa Bay Bucs 4-9 .5503
10. Kansas City Chiefs 5-8 .4793
11. Philadelphia Eagles 5-8 .4911
12. Buffalo Bills 5-8 .5030
13. Arizona Cardinals 6-7 .4675
14. Seattle Seahawks 6-7 .4852
15. San Diego Chargers 6-7 .5089
16. Dallas Cowboys 7-6 .4675
17. Tennessee Titans 7-6 .4970
18. Cincinnati Bengals 7-6 .5207 (Div% tie-breaker)
19. Chicago Bears 7-6 .5207
20. Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK) 7-6 .5325
21. New York Giants 7-6 .5148 *
22. Cleveland Browns (from ATL) 8-5 .4734 *
23. New York Jets 8-5 .5030 *
24. Detroit Lions 8-5 .5148 (Conf% tie-breaker) *
25. Denver Broncos 8-5 .5148 *
26t. San Francisco 49ers 10-3 .4497 (coin flip) *
26t. New England Patriots 10-3 .4497 (coin flip) *
28. New Orleans Saints 10-3 .4615 *
29. Houston Texans 10-3 .4675 *
30. Baltimore Ravens 10-3 .4970 *
31. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3 .5089 *
32. Green Bay Packers 13-0 .4438 *

* - Projected playoff team, actual order to be determined from playoffs


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Are the PIT and BAL records factored in twice? or will it be added AFTER we play them the 2nd time? Not sure how the SOS math works....we could fall behind some teams even if we don't win since we play those 2 .750+ teams

If we win even 1 game we could fall back to 10+...so I'm sure we'll manage to win 1...we always win those late season crapfests


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DJ...any questions you might have concerning the info would be best answered by Graff...I simply went back to the old thread and copied his last update and posted it here for info purposes.

I do agree, winning games now will drive the Browns down the draft board and could dramatically change the teams draft strategy.



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That's a good question, I would think they do, no?

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Quote:

The Steelers allow 97 yard rushing per game on average. We ran for 98 yards.

The Ravens allow 85 yards/game. We ran for 59.

Cincinnati allows 100 per game. We ran for 134.

Jacksonville allows 110 per game,. We ran for 148.

St Louis allows 156 per game. We ran for 126.

Houston allows 91 yards rushing per game. We ran for 44.

San Francisco allows 70. We ran for 65.

Seattle allows 104. We ran for 141.

So in 5 of our last 8 games, we ran for more yards than the defenses allow on average.



The Steelers allow 179 yard passing per game on average. We threw for 209 yards.

The Ravens allow 192 yards/game. We threw for 192.

Cincinnati allows 214 per game. We threw for 151.

Jacksonville allows 196 per game. We threw for 199.

St Louis allows 208 per game. We threw for 218.

Houston allows 183 yards per game. We threw for 146.

San Francisco allows 234. We threw for 241.

Seattle allows 230. We threw for 178.

So in 5 of our last 8 games, we THREW for more yards than the defenses allow on average. Yet our running game is solid and our passing game is awful.. go figure.



Quote:

People talk about Gabbert. He has 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 330 attempts. McCoy has 26 in 443 attempts. They are similar quality QBs ... yet some people love one and disparage the other. One is a rookie, one is a guy with almost 2 years under his belt. Gabbert has (now) has 11 TD and 10 INT on the year. (12 starts) McCoy has 14 TD and 11 INT in 13 games. Gabbert has been sacked 38 times on the year in 352 attempts. . McCoy has been sacked 32 times in 13 games, and 463 pass attempts. They are similar QBs ..... except that Gabbert wasn't supposed to be ready this year ..... yet got thrown into the fire in his 2nd game. McCoy had half a season to watch and learn, then has had the 2nd season as undisputed starter.




LOL.. Gabbert was the 10th pick overall.. Colt was a third round pick who, after his first year, had the entire coaching staff change and a whole new system brought in.. but Colt has what, 8 more NFL starts in a system different than the one he is running now.. .so yea, I can see where Colt should be lightyears ahead of him..

Quote:

We have excellent receiving TEs and RBs. Comparing McCoy to the above QBs shows that we have rthrown the ball down the field 21+ yards 37 times. Moore has done so 44 times. Jackson has done so 45 times. Limited QBs don't throw the ball down the field, because they are not capable of doing so, and it is outside of their comfort zone.




If your best receiving options are your TEs and RBs, doesn't it sort of make sense that you don't throw the ball down the field as much? It's like you are contradicting your own argument.

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Some, like Rodgers, will have far superior pass blocking lines, but even he gets pressure from time to time. The difference is that he makes plays, and McCoy wilts.



Why don't you compare any of our other positions to the undisputed best player in the game? Let's compare our 3rd round draft pick QB in his second year in the league and his first year in a new system to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in their prime and use it to prove that Colt sucks because he can't do the things they do...


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@YTown:

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Now, let me ask you a question. Do you honestly see Colt McCoy, no matter what we can realistically put around him, as a Super Bowl quality QB?




I don't see any reason why he couldn't be.




Then you haven't been watching.



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Our winning days are over.

@Arizona - We're a 6.5 point underdog.
@Baltimore - Probably lose by 3 TD's.
Pittsburgh - Probably lose by 2 TD's.

We're gonna finish 4-12.


We need Miami and Washington to win another game.

Miami gets Buffalo this week, then the Patriots and Jets. We need to root for Miami hard this week.

Washington get Giants (who knows which Giants team will show up), Minnesota (this is the game we need), and Philly (again, who knows)



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If we can get up to the #4 spot behind Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, we're going to get our Quarterback. Barkley?

Also, getting into the to 4 could help us make a move for Luck. Think about this ...


If Indy decides they can't draft Luck and keep both him and Manning on the roster, but they're also not ready to cut ties with Manning ...

They could be tempted to keep Manning and trade down, and STILL take a Quarterback, but one that would be okay with the "Aaron Rodgers treatment"

They trade back to us at #4, grab a QB of the future in Barkley, he sits behind Manning for a few years, and they pick up extra picks.



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And hopefully dropping them from #1 to #4 won't cost so much.

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Quote:

Are the PIT and BAL records factored in twice? or will it be added AFTER we play them the 2nd time? Not sure how the SOS math works....we could fall behind some teams even if we don't win since we play those 2 .750+ teams

If we win even 1 game we could fall back to 10+...so I'm sure we'll manage to win 1...we always win those late season crapfests




I think opponent's pct are factored in once the game is complete. So Balt and Pitt in there once each right now.

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Quote:

I will tell you what that tells us....it's that Rodgers gets sacked and then comes back the next play and still gets a 1st down and the drive going...with McCoy any false start penalty or sack and the drive is essentially over as a 3rd&10+ for him is like a 3rd&30 for other QBs....we often do not even try to convert them....remember the inside handoff to Obi vs PIT on 3rd&20?




Are you seriously comparing our WR corps to that of the Packers? It's not even as good as Miami's or the Bills or Kansas City.

Hells Bells! If you want to go comparing fruit, you're not even using apples and oranges. You're using grapes and watermelons!

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Quote:

Quote:

@YTown:

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Now, let me ask you a question. Do you honestly see Colt McCoy, no matter what we can realistically put around him, as a Super Bowl quality QB?




I don't see any reason why he couldn't be.




Then you haven't been watching.




...or I've been seeing things you haven't.

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I'm not asking them to have all day to throw on every single play. At this point, I'd settle for mediocrity on the OL. We're not even getting that from the OL.




Bull crap. The O-line is playing well this year. Our RT SUCKS, but the other four guys are doing a good job.




Lauvao is complete garbage! He's being outplayed by Pinkston. To be fair, that might be because Pinkston is playing between Thomas and Mack and not between Mack and Pashos.

I can't type on this website what I have to say about Pashos.

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Agreed on Pashos, but Lauvao is playing well this year. He is playing better than Mack.


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Quote:

Agreed on Pashos, but Lauvao is playing well this year. He is playing better than Mack.




Mack's play has suffered a bit. You can tell that he misses Steinbach between him and Thomas but in my estimation, saying that Lauvao is playing well this year (essentially his rookie season) is a bit of an exaggeration.

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I would bet that we have the same LT-RG next season ..... with a different RT in the mix. (If I were a betting man)


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

@YTown:

Quote:

Now, let me ask you a question. Do you honestly see Colt McCoy, no matter what we can realistically put around him, as a Super Bowl quality QB?




I don't see any reason why he couldn't be.




Then you haven't been watching.




...or I've been seeing things you haven't.







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I don't think we're signing Sam Hurd.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Quote:

I don't think we're signing Sam Hurd.




I think that the Texas Penal League has drafted him already.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

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Quote:

Agreed on Pashos, but Lauvao is playing well this year. He is playing better than Mack.


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Thanks for posting that mac.

Some people have had an issue with how I calculate the SoS. As I said with all my lists previous, I calculated SoS based on whom you had actually played to date but did not include future games. Since we're so late into the season I decided to go ahead and add in the opponents records for the rest of the year for all teams.

I've also explicitly shown the two 1st round trades (ATL to CLE and OAK to CIN), I've included last nights ATL-JAX game results as well and finally I've put the current playoff teams in the final 12 spots (actual order determined by playoff results).

So, again as of RIGHT NOW....with updated full year SoS rankings...here is the current 2012 draft standings:



Pittsburgh and Baltimore KILL our SoS.....just having them in our division and playing them 4 games a year costs us 4 spots in the draft at least.


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Quote:

.just having them in our division and playing them 4 games a year costs us 4 spots in the draft at least.




I would say that by assuring us 3-4 losses per season they actually improve our draft spot.

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Sure, but then we lose those 3-4 draft spots right back again since our SoS is so high.

So we get 4 losses a year without much of any reward at the end of the year.

Haven't you ever wondered why, since the return, we suck every year but we never seem to end up with a top 5 pick? In fact I just went back and looked it up...since our 3 year stretch of infancy from 99-01 we've had exactly 2 top 5 picks.

Braylon at #3 in '05 and JT at #3 in '07.

Shoot we've only had 4 top 10 picks! The above two plus Winslow at #6 in '04 and Haden at #7 in '10. Next highest was Wimbley at #13 in '06.

That's just not enough top end talent...especially when 3/5 of them aren't on the team anymore.

Last edited by GraffZ06; 12/16/11 04:13 PM.

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Slots 1-3 are pretty much locked up. Indy has 0 wins, STL and MIN have 2 wins each. None of those teams are going on a 3-game winning streak. Everyone above them has at least 4 wins. Looking at the remaining 3 weeks, here are the remaining games for the 4-win teams:

Code:

WAS @ NYG MIN @ PHI
JAX @ ATL @ TEN IND
CAR @ HOU TB @ NO
MIA @ BUF @ NE NYJ
CLE @ AZ @ BAL PIT
TB DAL @ CAR @ ATL



Wash and Miami are basically shoe-ins to take QBs, as they needed them last year and didn't draft them since the choices were so terrible.

Hopefully Wash "wins" at home over MIN or at Philly in a divisional game against a completely mailed-in PHI team. Grossman will be working his butt off to not get replaced in those two games.

I fully expect JAX to lose at home to Indy. IND will have clinched #1 pick, the players won't want to be in the books with the Lions, and Gabbert will still suck. JAX has nothing to play for. Best chance is they get fired up for their rivals against TEN and Locker makes rookie mistakes.

The TB/CAR game could go either way. I can't understand either of those two teams. It seems like they CAR plays well enough every week but at the end of the game they look bad. TB is underperforming as much as anyone outside of Philly this year... or did they just vastly overperform last year? Don't rule out a victory over NO to close out the season for CAR, especially if NO has sewn up the #2 seed.

MIA I don't think will win another game. Not because they can't, but I believe they have a mandate to lose. I think they were just waiting for a single loss to fire Sparano once he started winning. Their entire season has been predicated around losing and Sparano/Matt Moore didn't follow the script. I'm sure the new HC has been "encouraged" to "see what they have in the young guys."

I still think we'll beat AZ. Especially with Wallace in there. I'd love to see victories over BAL AND PIT, but obviously it's not likely, especially with the two battling it out for home field advantage v. a wild card.

TB, in all likelihood, will lose out. They usually make division games interesting, but I think Newton will beat them and ATL is still trying to secure their playoff positioning.

I think WAS gets to 5 wins, CAR gets to 5 or 6 wins, JAX, MIA, TB lose out. There will be quite the logjam of teams with 5 wins when it comes to be draft time.

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Quote:

Sure, but then we lose those 3-4 draft spots right back again since our SoS is so high.

So we get 4 losses a year without much of any reward at the end of the year.

Haven't you ever wondered why, since the return, we suck every year but we never seem to end up with a top 5 pick? In fact I just went back and looked it up...since our 3 year stretch of infancy from 99-01 we've had exactly 2 top 5 picks.

Braylon at #3 in '05 and JT at #3 in '07.

Shoot we've only had 4 top 10 picks! The above two plus Winslow at #6 in '04 and Haden at #7 in '10. Next highest was Wimbley at #13 in '06.

That's just not enough top end talent...especially when 3/5 of them aren't on the team anymore.




How many top ten picks have the ravens/steelers had in that time?

The key to being a good football team is not in getting many top ten picks.


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what about trading out of #5 and #6?

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i'd like to note that Philly has tiebreakers over BOTH NYG and Dallas.

so, if you want them to mail-in wk17, then you need them to either lose in the next 2 weeks or NYG/DAL to both win the next 2 weeks.


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I would bet that we have the same LT-RG next season ..... with a different RT in the mix. (If I were a betting man)




So, you don't think that Steinbach will be back in the line-up with Pinkston replacing him and you think Lauvao will be back at RG?

You might be right. I think replacing Lauvao is necessary for OL improvement just as much as replacing Pashos at RT.

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