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this guy is a bit arrogant (or that is the character he writes with), but he puts out some good points:


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The Giants pounded the testosterone out of the Falcons Sunday, with a dominant 24-2 victory that left no doubt about who were the men and who were the boys in this NFC battle.

Atlanta's only points were a safety generated by the defense. That's right, folks: Here in a season when passing records are being shredded like old Enron balance sheets, Matt Ryan and his galaxy of so-called star receivers were shut out, blanked, zip-o-fied.

The entire punch-less offensive (in both senses of the word) effort was an indictment of the team's disastrous decision to mortgage its future to move up the board to grab Julio Jones in the first round of the 2011 draft. General manager Thomas Dimitroff should be forced to walk the pigskin plank for orchestrating this foul-sounding yet predictable disaster.

So the game was not just a win for the Giants. It was also a win for the only force in football since the 1972 Dolphins to go undefeated and untied: the Cold, Hard Football Facts Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law.


If you're new to the Mighty CHFF, this Man Law tells us that wide receivers are nothing more than Shiny Hood Ornaments decorating the engine of NFL teams. They look all nice and flashy and they cause fans to "ooh" and "ahh."

But they don't make the engine run any better. The Cold, Hard Football Fact, proven through all of NFL history, is that the impact of wide receivers is WILDLY overvalued by fans, by analysts and, most damningly, by teams, coaches and executives, like Dimitroff, who should know better ... but don't.

The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law proved so powerful in the 2010 season that we elevated it from the Shiny Hood Ornament Theory to its present status. It is no longer an idea or a concept. It is an irrefutable state of nature and exists all around us. Call it gravity for the gridiron.

The 2011 Falcons are the latest team to challenge the Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law, then hurt itself plummeting back to Earth in the process.

Atlanta torched badly chasing a Shiny Hood Ornament

The Falcons failed to study the Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law back in the 2011 draft. So they not only drafted wide receiver Jones in the first round, which is almost always a mistake. No, the Falcons did the unthinkable to make it happen: they mortgaged their future, trading five draft picks, to move up the draft board and grab Jones with the No. 6 overall pick.

In other words, the Falcons made other parts of the team worse in the belief that a Shiny Hood Ornament would make the entire Atlanta vehicle run better.

We knew it was a bad move the moment it happened, especially for a team that went 13-3 the year before but failed to win a single playoff game because of problems that were exposed so badly by the Packers. In fact, we issued Atlanta a D- in our Sports Illustrated draft grades. So we're not engaging in a little revisionist history. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law told us it was an impending disaster the second the deal unfolded.

The mistake on draft day proved to be a mistake all year, as Atlanta took a step back by every meaningful measure.


The Atlanta Falcons' decline
2010 2011
Record 13-3 10-6
Playoff seed No. 1 No. 5
Points scored 414 402
Points allowed 288 350

So here's what the Falcons got for their five draft picks: they won fewer games, scored fewer points, surrendered more points and tumbled from the No. 1 seed to the No. 5 seed -- all because they believed placing a bright Shiny Hood Ornament on the offense would make the team run faster.

Oh, and just for good measure, they have no No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft to help fix the obvious problems, like an offensive line that can't get a push when needed and a defense that fell off badly.

Other than that, it was a great decision to mortgage the future to pick up a Shiny Hood Ornament.


The disaster unfolds Sunday in front of Football Nation

The stupidity of the decision came crashing down on the Falcons for all of Football Nation to see on Sunday: the Atlanta passing game was a disaster, the Falcons were shut out, the offensive line was overmatched and its receivers were no-shows. Here's what we said Sunday in our Falcons-Giants grades on SI.com:

"Atlanta's star-studded pass-catching corps of Jones, Roddy White and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez were non-factors, unable to get separation. They combined for 16 ineffective catches for 160 yards. Decent numbers, but zero game-changing plays for such a high-profile trio."

And that statement, in a nutshell, is a very good explanation of why receivers are Shiny Hood Ornaments. They can't make game-changing plays if the QB can't get them the ball. A lot of things have to be working right for Shiny Hood Ornaments to first, get the ball and, second, do something meaningful with it.

Even the best Shiny Hood Ornaments touch the ball only four or five times a game -- a fact that seems lost on analysts and executives who habitually over-value their impact. (By the way, Gonzalez is another example of the Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law in action. He's the all-time leader in everything by a tight end. What's he got for it? He's got 16 catches, 157 yards, 2 TDs and zero wins in five career playoff games, including a quiet four catches for 44 yards on Sunday.)

So here's what the Falcons got Sunday for those five draft picks in the biggest game of the year:

1. They got an offense that scored 0 points against a team that surrendered 400 points during the regular season, the most by any playoff team.

2. They got seven ineffective catches for 64 yards -- just 9.1 YPC -- from a guy who's supposed to be a once-in-a-lifetime game-changer.

3. They got zero movement from their offensive line in one key short-yardage situation after another -- a nail-spitting animal at right guard would have been a lot more valuable to the Falcons in the biggest game of the year than an over-valued Shiny Hood Ornament.

There was also a certain irony to the fact the Falcons and their Shiny Hood Ornament were overwhelmed by the Giants.

New York's leading receiver this year was Victor Cruz, who set a franchise record with 1,536 receiving yards, including a signature record-tying 99-yard touchdown reception in a must-win game over the Jets on Christmas Eve.

The record-setting Cruz was an undrafted free agent out of UMass. Yes, he's a Shiny Hood Ornament, too. He still only touches the ball four or five times per game. But the Giants found him with their morning coffee one day in 2010. They didn't make their team worse in the effort to land him. He's productive because he's paired with a great quarterback.

QBs make WRS; WRs do not make QBs

All of which brings us to the elephant in the room in Atlanta's 2011 post-mortem of pigskin: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan simply can't get it done.

He's consistently had trouble getting the ball downfield throughout his career, and has now played poorly in three straight playoff games. In fact, Ryan has statistically stagnated somewhere well below mediocre in his three postseason games, all losses: 72.8 rating in the 2008 playoffs; 69.0 rating in the 2010 playoffs; and 71.1 rating here in the 2011 playoffs.

And it was never uglier than it was Sunday: Ryan and the Atlanta offense, loaded with over-valued Shiny Hood Ornaments, failed to produce a single point against a New York defense that surrendered 400 points this season -- one of the worst defenses that's ever reached the playoffs.

It doesn't matter how many so-called "weapons" you put around. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law tells us that quarterbacks make wide receivers, not the other way around. And right now we have four years of evidence saying that Ryan is not good enough to make his receivers better.

In either case, executives and coaches who are unaware of the Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law are like physicists are unaware of Newton's Laws of Motion. They have no business being in the field and need to find another line of work.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/wr...l#ixzz1j5cyRbbk





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Good points and an interesting take....but did he really have to write "Shiny Hood Ornament" 7,567 times? I had to stop reading at points to get a break.


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*cough* AJ Green *cough*

I think the Atlanta WRs didn't do much, but I also don't think the Atlanta OL did a whole heluva lot, either. And Matt Ryan didn't look too stellar.


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I counted - he said "Shiny Hood Ornament" 19 times.

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Is he really saying that the reason they lost that game was because of a rookie WR? I'm calling shenanigans.

Here in Cleveland, we're blaming our terrible offense on not having a true #1 WR (at least, one of the main causes).

This clown makes it seem like the Julio Jones trade is what broke the Falcons this year and that it was a bad idea. I say you gotta wait and see because Jones wasn't a finished product like AJ Green, and is expected to improve through his first couple years.

Writers like this is why the general fanbases are the way they are (you know what I mean).


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There is no doubt that we fleeced them in order for them to move up that far to select Jones... but to blame their loss on them taking that one player when that one player was helping them have a winning season is kinda asinine.

There is a strong likelihood that they wouldn't have even been IN that game to begin with without Jones, so how do you lay the loss at the feet of Jones?
Jones played in only 13 games and still had 54 receptions and almost 1,000 yards with 8 TD's. That's a pretty damned good rookie year, and totally unfair of this "author" to hang so much on his neck.


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QBs make WRS; WRs do not make QBs

Annoying read but he did get that line right.

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I think his point was that they needed help at other spots and that getting even a good WR isn't as important as building the entire team. So, even though they had a top-WR have a good year, their offense still took a dip.

so, they could have kept their picks, taken Torrey Smith, Greg Little, or Randall Cobb in the 2nd + had their 1st round pick for Carimi/Sherrod on the OL or helped their defense with Jimmy Smith (CB) or Cam Heyward(DL)

that's at least how I read it.


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Actually, he had a lot of good points ...... and I think that because they are points that I have brought up in the past. lol


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Getting any singular player is never as good as building the team as a whole.... however, if you feel you have a solid team and are ready to make a run, you have the luxury of paying a high price for a single player that you think is going to be something truly special.


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Is it really a good thing to be on the same page as the person who wrote that article?

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I'll agree in part .......



Quote:

Getting any singular player is never as good as building the team as a whole....




I will add this caveat:

Unless you feel that the player you are pursuing is a legitimate franchise QB.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

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No, never.
It is still just one player. It takes all 22, plus depth.
QB falls into the same category as every other position..... if you feel it is the missing piece that you need to make a legitimate run, THEN you can go for it.


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His ponts are pointless considering that the Giants have one of the best Wide Receiving groups in the league. Hakeem Nicks, Manningham and Cruz. Without the other two and Manning starting to play better every year Cruz would be Anquan Boldin in Baltimore.


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I think it's funny that the Giants magically seem to keep finding these WRs.

Steve Smith, Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz. Whoever starts for them seems to put up really good statistics. Wonder if there might be 1 constant in the ever-changing WR corps of the Giants these past few years that could account for such a thing


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Quote:

I think it's funny that the Giants magically seem to keep finding these WRs.

Steve Smith, Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz. Whoever starts for them seems to put up really good statistics. Wonder if there might be 1 constant in the ever-changing WR corps of the Giants these past few years that could account for such a thing


Yeah, I'm sure Joe Montana Made Jerry rice too and Warner made Fitzgerald and Schaub makes Andre Johnson and Stafford makes Calvin Johnson and Romo Make Miles Austin and Dalton made AJ Green..I get what you are saying. It is amazing.


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Yes, and Nicks was a 1st round selection.... the very thing this guy says you shouldn't have, hehe.
Quite frankly, it boils down to the fact that ya just have to get a little lucky. Manningham was a 3rd rounder, but plays well above that. Cruz was what... a 2nd rounder? Well, he's playing like it.


When you have receivers producing, things go well. You also need a QB to get the ball there.... you have to have BOTH sides of the equation, and even so, the Defense will sometimes STILL win the battle.


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Quote:

Here in Cleveland, we're blaming our terrible offense on not having a true #1 WR (at least, one of the main causes).




That's what the homers say...there are a number of posters who have pointed to the QB

To the article: his best argument is that even the best WRs only touch the ball for 4-6 times a game on AVG...a QB throws the ball 5 to 6 times more than that....that's something worth thinking about when discussing "value"...especially in the Top 5-10 in a draft


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Quote:

Quote:

Here in Cleveland, we're blaming our terrible offense on not having a true #1 WR (at least, one of the main causes).




That's what the homers say...there are a number of posters who have pointed to the QB

To the article: his best argument is that even the best WRs only touch the ball for 4-6 times a game on AVG...a QB throws the ball 5 to 6 times more than that....that's something worth thinking about when discussing "value"...especially in the Top 5-10 in a draft


And as we saw with Blackmon and Cruz it only takes 1 or 2 balls in the hands of a playmaker to make a difference.


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Cruz was an UDFA...just like Welker, Amendola, L.Moore, Bess...Colston was a late 7th

Sure, the top picks still probably have a better hit rate....but when you compare the hit rate "gap" from WR to QB it's not even close...there's a Colston or Welker out of nowhere almost EVERY season....otoh, Brady is a once in a decade lucky hit


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Quote:

Cruz was an UDFA...just like Welker, Amendola, L.Moore, Bess...Colston was a late 7th

Sure, the top picks still probably have a better hit rate....but when you compare the hit rate "gap" from WR to QB it's not even close...there's a Colston or Welker out of nowhere almost EVERY season....otoh, Brady is a once in a decade lucky hit


Warner?


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Quote:

No, never.
It is still just one player. It takes all 22, plus depth.
QB falls into the same category as every other position..... if you feel it is the missing piece that you need to make a legitimate run, THEN you can go for it.




I disagree. I feel that today's NFL begins at the QB position, and if you don't have a good one, then nothing else you do matters unless you get damn neat everything else right.

Look at San Francisco.

Average (or so) QB, #2 scoring defense, #4 overall defense, started the year with 3 former 1st round WRs on the roster as well as a #6th overall 1st round TE, 8th ranked rushing offense, a 1st rounder at LT, a 1st rounder at RT, a 1st rounder at LG, and a 3rd rounder at RG.

So ... let's review ......

1st rounders at WR (2, and started the year with 3) TE, LT, LG, RG, and 3rd/4th round picks at RB. Add in the #2 scoring defense ..... and that's all you need to get by with an average to very slightly above average QB.

That's all. Oh, and add in a top 10 special teams unit that is 1st in the league in kick returns and in punting.

Funny thing is that their defense has very few 1st round picks, and it is, by far, the better unit.

Given all of that, I think that there is still a good chance that they don't win a playoff game this year. They have to beat New Orleans, and I think that New Orleans is a better team, , in large part, because of the fact that they have a far superior QB.


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Of course, it's a numbers game.
There are several WR's on every team in college... there is only one QB per team that will ever get looked at in any given year; the rest go by the wayside.

Thus, the QB's that show talent early get snapped up quickly while talented WR's can get lost in the mix.


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Quote:

Cruz was an UDFA...just like L.Moore,





who the Browns picked up first.


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Quote:

Quote:

Cruz was an UDFA...just like Welker, Amendola, L.Moore, Bess...Colston was a late 7th

Sure, the top picks still probably have a better hit rate....but when you compare the hit rate "gap" from WR to QB it's not even close...there's a Colston or Welker out of nowhere almost EVERY season....otoh, Brady is a once in a decade lucky hit


Warner?




Romo (undrafted), Fitzpatrick (7th), Hasselbeck (6th)

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Quote:

Quote:

No, never.
It is still just one player. It takes all 22, plus depth.
QB falls into the same category as every other position..... if you feel it is the missing piece that you need to make a legitimate run, THEN you can go for it.




I disagree. I feel that today's NFL begins at the QB position, and if you don't have a good one, then nothing else you do matters unless you get damn neat everything else right.

Look at San Francisco.

Average (or so) QB, #2 scoring defense, #4 overall defense, started the year with 3 former 1st round WRs on the roster as well as a #6th overall 1st round TE, 8th ranked rushing offense, a 1st rounder at LT, a 1st rounder at RT, a 1st rounder at LG, and a 3rd rounder at RG.

So ... let's review ......

1st rounders at WR (2, and started the year with 3) TE, LT, LG, RG, and 3rd/4th round picks at RB. Add in the #2 scoring defense ..... and that's all you need to get by with an average to very slightly above average QB.

That's all. Oh, and add in a top 10 special teams unit that is 1st in the league in kick returns and in punting.

Funny thing is that their defense has very few 1st round picks, and it is, by far, the better unit.

Given all of that, I think that there is still a good chance that they don't win a playoff game this year. They have to beat New Orleans, and I think that New Orleans is a better team, , in large part, because of the fact that they have a far superior QB.


I couldn't disagree more with this. Every Team this decade that has tried to build a team around a first round pick has failed. From Jamarcus to David Carr, Couch, Akili Smith, Quinn, etc..Most successful QB's in the First round go to established teams and offense and or Defense.. The other way is more fails than not.

Last edited by LOYALDAWG; 01/10/12 06:16 PM.

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I disagree as well.

I'll put it in the form of this scenario.

If every player was suddenly a draftable free agent. Would anything other than QB be drafted in the first 10 picks?


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Quote:

Quote:

Cruz was an UDFA...just like Welker, Amendola, L.Moore, Bess...Colston was a late 7th

Sure, the top picks still probably have a better hit rate....but when you compare the hit rate "gap" from WR to QB it's not even close...there's a Colston or Welker out of nowhere almost EVERY season....otoh, Brady is a once in a decade lucky hit


Warner?




and Romo


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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Cruz was an UDFA...just like Welker, Amendola, L.Moore, Bess...Colston was a late 7th

Sure, the top picks still probably have a better hit rate....but when you compare the hit rate "gap" from WR to QB it's not even close...there's a Colston or Welker out of nowhere almost EVERY season....otoh, Brady is a once in a decade lucky hit


Warner?




and Romo


Schaub


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Warner and Romo are the only UDFA QBs I can think of in the last 15 years that had any success...there are probably 10+ WRs in that time span

edit: Schaub was a 3rd rounder....and he's pretty much one of the few 3rd round QBs that are any good...I'd bet there are numerous more 3rd round WRs too

You can throw exception names all you want...it'd be stupid trying to argue that the probability of finding a good UDFA or late round QB is as good as at WR


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Quote:

Quote:

I think it's funny that the Giants magically seem to keep finding these WRs.

Steve Smith, Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz. Whoever starts for them seems to put up really good statistics. Wonder if there might be 1 constant in the ever-changing WR corps of the Giants these past few years that could account for such a thing


Yeah, I'm sure Joe Montana Made Jerry rice too and Warner made Fitzgerald and Schaub makes Andre Johnson and Stafford makes Calvin Johnson and Romo Make Miles Austin and Dalton made AJ Green..I get what you are saying. It is amazing.




funny you mention Miles Austin. how well did Laurent Robinson do before he got to Dallas?

I think of it this way. Great WRs obviously help raise their QBs. And great QBs obviously raise their WRs. But, if a great WR raises a QB by 5%, then I would say a great QB raises the level of a WR by 40%.

Actually, that is a great sabremetric experiment to run. It should be wholly possible to plug in the numbers of WRs and see how much QBs affect them and vice versa. It would take a ton of time obviously.


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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I think it's funny that the Giants magically seem to keep finding these WRs.

Steve Smith, Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz. Whoever starts for them seems to put up really good statistics. Wonder if there might be 1 constant in the ever-changing WR corps of the Giants these past few years that could account for such a thing


Yeah, I'm sure Joe Montana Made Jerry rice too and Warner made Fitzgerald and Schaub makes Andre Johnson and Stafford makes Calvin Johnson and Romo Make Miles Austin and Dalton made AJ Green..I get what you are saying. It is amazing.




funny you mention Miles Austin. how well did Laurent Robinson do before he got to Dallas?

I think of it this way. Great WRs obviously help raise their QBs. And great QBs obviously raise their WRs. But, if a great WR raises a QB by 5%, then I would say a great QB raises the level of a WR by 40%.

Actually, that is a great sabremetric experiment to run. It should be wholly possible to plug in the numbers of WRs and see how much QBs affect them and vice versa. It would take a ton of time obviously.


Good Luck with that! LOL He was playing With Fitzgerald, Breaston and that other guy so not sure how many chances he got. Plus wasn't Boldin there his first year?


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Let me ask you this.

Suppose the NFL suddenly had every single player become a free agent, and there were no tags. Every single player suddenly had no contract, and was free to sign with any team.

Under such a scenario, what position do you suppose would be the 1st position every team would be fighting over?

If every NFL player was put into a pool, and they started a draft where teams could select anyone currently in the league .... what do you suppose the odds are that the 1st 10 or so picks might include guys like

Brady
Brees
Roethlisberger
Rodgers
Stafford
Newton
Schaub
Rivers
Eli Manning

I bet they would. The NFL is a QB/passing league. They create more and more rules making it easier to pass each and every *ahem* passing year.

QBs not only make receivers, they make teams.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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i meant with WRs and QBs on a whole (in order to get the proper sample size).

but, laurent robinson never played in AZ (not sure who else you could be referring to). he was in ATL in '07 and '08 and StL in '09 and '10


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sigh...

jc

How are we still talking about the importance of the QB position? I mean... is it not immediately obvious when we look at the current state of the league along with the recent past? Shaking my head.....

I've pointed this out before but here goes again: There isn't a single team in the recent past that has has year-in, year-out success that doesn't have a franchise QB. None, nada, zip. Occasionally you see teams with 'game-manager' QBs have a flukey season where they run off a couple playoff wins or whatever but you NEVER see those teams consistently making deep playoff runs anymore.

Pats, Colts (pre-Manning injury), Steelers, Packers, Saints......

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Quote:

i meant with WRs and QBs on a whole (in order to get the proper sample size).

but, laurent robinson never played in AZ (not sure who else you could be referring to). he was in ATL in '07 and '08 and StL in '09 and '10


My bad! You mean the undrafted Romo made a star out of Robinson When Bradford couldn't? JK


"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
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yes because Romo is the better QB at this point of their careers.

(you have to remember I'm the proponent of signing 7th round Flynn. i care about the QB being good not where he was drafted. that doesn't matter once you've had some snaps under center)


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Agreed.

And that's why I'm in the Luck camp.


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a franchise QB + 21 scrubs is not going to win you a super bowl.


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And 21 pretty good players with an average QB gets you nowhere.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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