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well, Rodgers, Eli and Ben are on that list, so that's 5 superbowls right there. Peyton was further back than this article, but would have been included (+1 superbowl). drew brees missed being on this list by 1 pick.
that's the last 7 superbowls right there.
Yes, but 'from that list' only 3 have gone on to win the SB(s). That's not so great of odds in my book.
My question IIRC is how many have gone on to win the SB? (3) Not how many SB they won. Others from that list may still go on to win the SB, so it could be a little misleading, because the book is still very much open for some on that list.
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mac, this is going nowhere.
I don't know what percentage I would assign ... and you would point out that we really don't know anyway.
With injury potential, I would guess that every player starts with a 10% chance of busting, and works up from there based on any of a variety of factors.
I could be wrong about RG3. Others could be wrong on the other side. We'll see what kind of pro he eventually becomes.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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One thing we all can agree on,it's risky to draft a QB high.But then,it's risky to draft any position high.
I think we can also agree that it sucks going into each season, year after year after year, wondering who your QB is going to be or whether he is any good. 
what, it's fun that we've had a different starting QB in wk1 almost every year since we have been back, no?
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But,all the research you would do,would mean absolutely nothing.
BC...first, it's not my research, not my numbers...
...I search for the research because I'm willing to ask the tough questions that many seem to ignore or don't even want to think about...the possibility that RG3 could turn out to be a bust.
Like I said in a post above, if anyone should know about first round QBs turning out to be a bust, the Browns and their fans should know...Couch and Quinn.
Both of those draft picks set the franchise back...but compared to the deal needed to move up to draft RG#3 and the potential damage to the franchise should he bust, the Couch and Quinn deals were small potatoes.
The Browns are about half way built via the draft and on the verge of making a huge stride forward with the #4, #22 and #37 draft picks. Those picks could potentially add 3 of the best prospects at their position coming out of college, which should translate into 3 blue chip starters for the Browns.
The cheerleaders for making a trade up to get Griffin, need to consider the potential damage that could be done to the franchise, should Griffin turn out to be a bust.
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I'm just glad that we (the fans) don't get a vote in who we draft.
That would be ugly...
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Here is the article I was looking for...good info, based on draft history.
NFL QB Draft History: 2000-2011
sep 22, 2011
The rise and fall of an NFL team's destiny over the last decade is largely told in the accompanying article and attached chart (QBDraftHistory).
Observations from the last 12 NFL Drafts in Regards to QBs:
In 9 of the last 12 years a QB has been taken 1st overall. The years where they weren't were 2000, 2006 and 2008. 75% of the time a QB goes #1.
FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD
When considering the 1st QB taken off the board: 8 of the last 12 have "worked out" (subjective yes, but in my view) - (67%).
The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%).
There is nothing 100% in this business. 67-75% is the closest you will ever get to a sure thing.
SECOND QB OFF THE BOARD
When considering the 2nd QB taken off the board: 6 of 12 have worked out and if we give Locker the benefit of the doubt- that is 7 of 12 or 58%. Not bad.
The one's that didn't pan were: Giovanni Carmazzi 2000, Joey Harrington 2002, Matt Leinart 2006, Brady Quinn 2007 and Tim Tebow 2010.
THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD
Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.
The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.
The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%.
FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD
Yes to Rex Grossman? Uh...ok. Yes to Colt McCoy? Chad Henne? There is not a definite "good" NFL starter that was the 4th QB off the board in the last 12 years!
The for sure No group? Tee Martin, Matt Tuiasosopo, Josh Mccown, JP Losman, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, John Beck, Pat White.
Let's just be nice and say that Henne, Grossman, Mccoy and Ponder are not busts. 4 of 12 here. 33%. Eeks.
FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD
I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%.
The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton.
So in review- here are the rough numbers depending on how you classify the draft picks working out in terms of being a quality NFL Starting QB:
1st QB off the board: 67-75% success rate
2nd QB off the board: 50-58% success rate
3rd QB off the board: 42-50% success rate
4th QB off the board: 16-33% success rate
5th QB off the board: 25-33% success rate
See a pattern here?
If the Seahawks would have drafted a QB in 2011, he would have been the 5th QB off the board barring a trade up. I know every year is different and you can't go make calls based on history, but it is interesting to note.
OTHER TIDBITS
--Of the 15 second round QBs drafted in the last 12 years, only one is a legit star: Drew Brees, and only 4 more are starters in the NFL (Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Andy Dalton). Pretty low success rate in the 2nd round.
--If the Draft were held today, Brees would have been drafted in Round 1. In 2001 there were only 31 picks in the 1st Round and he was pick 32.
--There are nine Starting Quarterbacks (28%) in the NFL that were not drafted in Rounds 1 or 2:
Matt Hasselbeck - Rd 6
Tom Brady - Rd 6
Tony Romo- Undrafted
Matt Schaub - Rd 3
Luke Mccown - Rd 4
Kyle Orton - Rd 4
Matt Cassel - Rd 7
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rd 7
Colt Mccoy - Rd 3
-- There are five NFL Starters that were drafted in 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Luke Mccown).
-- There are six NFL Starters that were drafted in 2005- most of any year (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick)
-- Tarvaris Jackson was the 5th QB off the board in 2006 and Charlie Whitehurst was the 6th QB off the board.
-- In three of the last twelve years, four QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2003, 2004 and 2011.
-- In four of the last twelve years, three QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.
-- 18 of 32 NFL Starters were 1st rd Draft Picks- or 56%.
-- There have been 32 QBs drafted in Round 1 in the last 12 years for an average of 2.67 per year.
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Good read for me, LD! I always read (and usually agree with him) Pluto when I can. Usually he is on target, and I share his feelings like need for some receivers who can be dangerous and open. I almost regret knowing what our NFL ranking was for dropped passes and fewest long plays or thereabouts. I think McCoy is better if he has better targets and route combos and some protection, but his "better" demands better to be improved. Pluto points stuff out plainly. Good reading! 
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That's a long read at the end of it I don't think I can conclude anything.
The argument is the 1st round is higher percentage, sure.
But so much is in there, you can get other things from that too.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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well, Rodgers, Eli and Ben are on that list, so that's 5 superbowls right there. Peyton was further back than this article, but would have been included (+1 superbowl). drew brees missed being on this list by 1 pick.
that's the last 7 superbowls right there.
Yes, but 'from that list' only 3 have gone on to win the SB(s). That's not so great of odds in my book.
My question IIRC is how many have gone on to win the SB? (3) Not how many SB they won. Others from that list may still go on to win the SB, so it could be a little misleading, because the book is still very much open for some on that list.
wait a second. you are a reasonable guy. you use logic in most of your arguments. so, why are you abandoning it here? are you just playing with me?
the last 7 superbowls were won by guys that basically fit into those parameters (Brees outside by 1 pick, Peyton just a couple years before he arbitrarily started it). so, no matter what 'other' list of QBs you have drafted in this timeframe, you are going to get 0 superbowls won. therefore, this list is showing "great" odds for recent superbowls even if the odds of winning a superbowl overall are pretty poor.
i still hate the "superbowl winning QB" criteria when trying to find our own QB to compete for one. the sample size is just too small, there are too many other factors that play into it, and, as you can see, mini-dynasties are still ever-present.
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mac, this is going nowhere.
I don't know what percentage I would assign ... and you would point out that we really don't know anyway.
With injury potential, I would guess that every player starts with a 10% chance of busting, and works up from there based on any of a variety of factors.
I could be wrong about RG3. Others could be wrong on the other side. We'll see what kind of pro he eventually becomes.
I was wrong on Alex Smith and BQ and right on Cam... It happens but damn I would much rather be glad with a successful QB than either wrong or right...
For the record, I am in the pro RGIII camp as well but one thing I have learned from the failed drafts over the years is don't fall in love with the pics ahead of the draft because THIS franchise WILL disappoint you 9/10 times...
Maybe I should be like Damian more and just offer blind support and agree with the franchise on each and every decision..
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Maybe I should be like Damian more and just offer blind support and agree with the franchise on each and every decision..
He doesn't do that though ...... he hates every single one of our receivers because "they are the cause of our failures in the passing game". It's impossible, to him, that the receivers might be productive with a different QB. They simply suck ..... and that's all there is about it.
I wanted both Frye and Quinn dumped before it became fashionable. It wasn't because I hated them, it's because I hated what they were doing to my beloved Browns. I look at how McCoy plays the game, and I see a carbon copy of those guys. They were both tossed, one by this very administration. No receivers will be wildly successful with such a QB.
Look at Quinn's numbers from his final year here:
136-256 (53.1%) for 1339 yards, 5.23 yards/pass attempt, 8 TD, 7 INT, 12 plays of 20+ yards. Who does that remind you of?
And he had true rookie receivers to deal with.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Maybe I should be like Damian more and just offer blind support and agree with the franchise on each and every decision..
You say that like it's a bad thing 
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well, Rodgers, Eli and Ben are on that list, so that's 5 superbowls right there. Peyton was further back than this article, but would have been included (+1 superbowl). drew brees missed being on this list by 1 pick.
that's the last 7 superbowls right there.
Yes, but 'from that list' only 3 have gone on to win the SB(s). That's not so great of odds in my book.
My question IIRC is how many have gone on to win the SB? (3) Not how many SB they won. Others from that list may still go on to win the SB, so it could be a little misleading, because the book is still very much open for some on that list.
wait a second. you are a reasonable guy. you use logic in most of your arguments. so, why are you abandoning it here? are you just playing with me?
the last 7 superbowls were won by guys that basically fit into those parameters (Brees outside by 1 pick, Peyton just a couple years before he arbitrarily started it). so, no matter what 'other' list of QBs you have drafted in this timeframe, you are going to get 0 superbowls won. therefore, this list is showing "great" odds for recent superbowls even if the odds of winning a superbowl overall are pretty poor.
i still hate the "superbowl winning QB" criteria when trying to find our own QB to compete for one. the sample size is just too small, there are too many other factors that play into it, and, as you can see, mini-dynasties are still ever-present.
I totally agree with the parameters thing and that your odds of finding "the guy" the higher you draft them are better then later (I'm not disputing that fact), but that still does not excuse the fact that there are, but (3) of that list (the context) that have ever won a SB. Obviously others could still accomplish winning a SB.
Point of emphasis is on the teams and not the QB alone that determines who hoist the Lombardi trophy.
Good teams start from the top down and that all begins I think on draft week
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Maybe I should be like Damian more and just offer blind support and agree with the franchise on each and every decision..
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He doesn't do that though ...... he hates every single one of our receivers because "they are the cause of our failures in the passing game". It's impossible, to him, that the receivers might be productive with a different QB. They simply suck ..... and that's all there is about it.
I want you to show me where I said I hate our receivers?
If I throw it to a receiver, it hits him on the numbers,, and he drops it,, why the hell is that a QB's problem?
I say that, but I'm aware that Colt McCoy didn't hit them on the numbers on every pass.. But what QB does.
You know all those fantastic catchs that all pro receivers make.. they aren't really considered fantastic if it lands perfectly in thier hands.. Our receivers aren't fighting for it.
You say I blame it all on the receivers... I don't. I think there is a pretty fair amount of blame to go around to receivers, QB, RB's and the coaching and the line has had it's share of issues as well.
But you blame the QB and it seems ONLY the QB. And you are willing to mortgage the future to grab one that may or may not bust. That could set the team back years.
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Point of emphasis is on the teams and not the QB alone that determines who hoist the Lombardi trophy
agreed.
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Good teams start from the top down and that all begins I think on draft week
no doubt. NYG and GB sure didn't build their teams through FA.
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no doubt. NYG and GB sure didn't build their teams through FA.
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That's a long read at the end of it I don't think I can conclude anything.
The argument is the 1st round is higher percentage, sure.
But so much is in there, you can get other things from that too.
throw...concerning the subject of the Browns moving up to draft Griffin, this is probably the most applicable information to consider...
.....the success rate for 2nd qb drafted is 50-58%.
Based on historic NFL information, the odds of RG3 making it would be 50-50 at the worst and could be as high as 58% success-42% failure.
This information is not the holy grail for predicting qb success at the NFL level. It is a historical look back at the actual success/failure rates of QBs drafted over the last 12 years.
I realize some of the QBs listed as "not working out"...actually surprised us in 2011..Alex Smith for example. The article was written in Sep. 2011, so I would have to give the author a pass on some of his assumptions.
The basic point I'm trying to bring to everyone's attention is first round draft picks "do fail" to make it in the NFL. Some who failed were highly rated "can't miss" QBs coming out of college and looked like a sure thing when they were drafted..but they didn't make it.
David Carr 2002
Vince Young 2006
JaMarcus Russell 2007
Joey Harrington 2002
Matt Leinart 2006
Brady Quinn 2007
Kyle Boller 2003
Patrick Ramsey 2002
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Sorry .... but you have said that we have "no talent to surround" McCoy with ....... so what would you infer from such a statement?
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
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Sorry .... but you have said that we have "no talent to surround" McCoy with ....... so what would you infer from such a statement?
But I never said I hate anyone..
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No, you never specifically used that word ...... just that you think that they should all be replaced ..... this year. Oh ... and I have never said that I hate any player either ...... just that I don't see a bright shiny future for some of them.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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No, you never specifically used that word ...... just that you think that they should all be replaced ..... this year.
Oh ... and I have never said that I hate any player either ...... just that I don't see a bright shiny future for some of them.
If I didn't say it, don't say I did.
Having that out of the way,, Are you happy with our receivers
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No, you never specifically used that word ...... just that you think that they should all be replaced ..... this year.
Oh ... and I have never said that I hate any player either ...... just that I don't see a bright shiny future for some of them.
Such irony here, I may have to puke!
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No, you never specifically used that word ...... just that you think that they should all be replaced ..... this year.
Oh ... and I have never said that I hate any player either ...... just that I don't see a bright shiny future for some of them.
Such irony here, I may have to puke!
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The basic point I'm trying to bring to everyone's attention is first round draft picks "do fail" to make it in the NFL. Some who failed were highly rated "can't miss" QBs coming out of college and looked like a sure thing when they were drafted..but they didn't make it.
While all that is true and the numbers are what they are and they are factual. The trouble with those numbers, and the same trouble with most stats, is that the outcome is not all dependent of the just QB himself.
Meaning that "can't miss" doesn't mean "can't miss regardless how bad a team he has to play for". It means that if his WR's, running game, coaching or any other part of the team for which he is dependent upon for his success is faulty, incompetent, negligent or otherwise sub-par he will be at the mercy of that organization and may fail regardless of his own ability. Check out the number of QB's who made good but not for their original team who drafted them.
If a team drafts him high and has good WR's, a decent running game, quality coaching and a good FO then his chances are much better to succeed. And none of that has anything to do with the QB's own ability.
So here is the same guy who in one instance is destined to fail and in the other has reasonable expectations to succeed. Keep in mind it's the same guy.
The basic point I'm trying to bring to everyone's attention is first round draft picks are highly dependent on the quality of those who draft them every bit as much as on the player himself.
So when we compare #1, #2, #3 QB's on a historical level we also have to ask how were they handled? Were they put in a position to succeed or thrown to the wolves with little help around them. David Carr was a freaking punching bag behind a horrid OL. Kyle Boller never had decent WR's. Then there's QB's whose skill-set doesn't necessarily match the offense they're being asked to run, especially after a regime change.
There are so many variables, as with stats, that produce the final outcome that we can't just say that pick number "blank" has this or that percentage of success or failure.
Sure history's stats say this or that but it all depends on where he lands, how he's handled and what kind of talent is around him.
Was Big Ben, who was picked at #11 the exception? No. Because he was not even a top 10 pick who landed on a very good team who needed only a QB. Was Tom Brady an exception? I don't know, you decide. But he started his career as a starter on a playoff team whose QB went down and so he stepped in.
Of course there are always a certain number of chumps like Russel and Ryan Leaf but give most of them an even chance and they can succeed.
Look at the teams those failures you mentioned played for. What were their chances considering the teams they were drafted by?
I think any QB who comes here will be handled properly and that includes Colt McCoy, RGlll or anyone else. Their success wouldn't be as quick as Big Ben's because we need much more than a QB for a major turnaround. But we are drafting well, have a superior coaching staff for handling a QB in the right manner and are on the cusp of being on the rise. That's a decent chance to succeed in a reasonable amount of time.
But as you say, that doesn't mean it WILL happen. Especially if the QB himself is inadequate and it is a bit of a crap shoot concerning any player. All you can do is your best evaluation given the available information and make your decisions.
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Check out the number of QB's who made good but not for their original team who drafted them.
I'm curious who you would put in this category?
Brees started to really turn it on while in San Diego. He then got hurt, and became a free agent.
In our division, every starting QB was drafted by his team.
In the AFCE, Brady and Sanchez were drafted by their teams, and Moore and Fitzpatrick were UDFA.
The AFCS would have had Manning, and the Colts have had, seemingly, a cast of thousands play. So have the Texans. They traded for their starter Schaub from the Falcons. The Titans signed Hasselbeck as a free agent, and Jacksonville drafted their guy.
IN the AFCW, the Broncos drafted Tebow, and San Diego drafted Rivers. Oakland traded for Palmer, and KC traded for Cassel, and then claimed Orton off of waivers.
That's the AFC, and I don't see a lot of reclamation projects in there .. as in guys who flopped for their original team only to go on to be really good, or great, elsewhere.
There were a lot of people who thought that Brady Quinn would do really well when he left here, and I looked it up at the time and couldn't find hardly any high draft pick QBs who failed with their original team, and then went on to star elsewhere. You get a guy like Kerry Collins every once in a while ..... but not really much more that I can think of.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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While all that is true and the numbers are what they are and they are factual. The trouble with those numbers, and the same trouble with most stats, is that the outcome is not all dependent of the just QB himself.
ddub...so true...I agree, qb can't become a success without a good supporting cast around him.
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If a team drafts him high and has good WR's, a decent running game, quality coaching and a good FO then his chances are much better to succeed. And none of that has anything to do with the QB's own ability.
Again, we agree...
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The basic point I'm trying to bring to everyone's attention is first round draft picks are highly dependent on the quality of those who draft them every bit as much as on the player himself.
So when we compare #1, #2, #3 QB's on a historical level we also have to ask how were they handled? Were they put in a position to succeed or thrown to the wolves with little help around them. David Carr was a freaking punching bag behind a horrid OL. Kyle Boller never had decent WR's. Then there's QB's whose skill-set doesn't necessarily match the offense they're being asked to run, especially after a regime change.
There are so many variables, as with stats, that produce the final outcome that we can't just say that pick number "blank" has this or that percentage of success or failure.
ddub...again, I can't disagree. But the QBs considered busts may not have gotten what you would call a fair shake, but they had their chance. Some are on the second or third team and remain backups.
How QBs are handled and the supporting cast their teams provide does play a part. Maybe the best quality a QB can have is the ability to forget about the lack of support and concentrate on doing their own job to the best of their ability...and hope it will be enough.
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I think any QB who comes here will be handled properly and that includes Colt McCoy, RGlll or anyone else. Their success wouldn't be as quick as Big Ben's because we need much more than a QB for a major turnaround. But we are drafting well, have a superior coaching staff for handling a QB in the right manner and are on the cusp of being on the rise. That's a decent chance to succeed in a reasonable amount of time.
A QB drafted in the 3rd round who becomes a starter in the NFL...should a 3rd round QB get the same kind of support we claim a 1st round QB needs, to become a success in the NFL?
The Browns coaching staff is still being developed with what might be the final member of the coaching team added just a couple of weeks ago. Shurmur and the Browns found out the hard way, a first time HC pulling double duty as the teams OC does neither job well enough to produce the results the franchise hoped for.
FOOTBALL IS NOT BASEBALL
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It would be weird to know who the QB was going into the season. I'm so used to some type of controversy. Tim Couch may have had a year or two as the undisputed QB but then not before Belichick cut Kosar.
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Check out the number of QB's who made good but not for their original team who drafted them.
Steve Young is probably the example that would be my first thought from that group.
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You get a guy like Kerry Collins every once in a while ..... but not really much more that I can think of.
There really hasn't been a ton I can think of either. But that wasn't the star witness in my post.
Steve Young immediately comes to mind. He had an awful time in Tampa Bay. Rich Gannon was another who found success later. You mentioned Kerry Collins. Brett Favre was given up on by his original team. I'm sure there were more.
But my point was that there is a lot of variables that help a QB to his success or demise that are completely out of the QB's control.
Let's say we draft RGlll and do nothing about our WR's and Heckert blows the rest of the draft in his worst draft yet. To cap it off our running back situation goes bad again. 2012 is another 4-12 season. In 2013 we lose two of our OL and the 1st round WR we drafted to IR. RGlll gets injured mid season and we have another 4-12 year. Shurmur gets fired and we bring in another coach who eventually turns out to be a dud after being given 3 years at the helm. Holmgren leaves due to his age, (he's been here 7 years now) and we have a total regime change. The new guys want to go back to the 3-4 and run the ball. He drafts "his franchise" QB early and RGlll is phased out in his seventh year. A bust.
Now change the scenario and Heckert has a brilliant draft after getting RGlll. We sign a 3rd round RB who becomes elite. We sign a first tier veteran RT, Pinky and Lavaou stud out and we have the a top 5 OL. Chilly and Shurmur run a WCO that no one can stop and RGlll saves the franchise and we become a contender for the next 10 years winning two super bowls. RGlll gets inducted into the HOF in his later years.
That's the kind of stuff I'm talking about. It's not all on the QB and his skills. Nor does it have anything whatsoever to do with the slot in which he was drafted. (Yes, high 1st rounders are more successful but it's still a 50/50 crap shoot). So much of a QB's success has to do with the team that drafted him and how he's handled as well as the talent around him.
I always find it utterly stupid when we have pick number "blank" and there are articles written showing the history of the "blank" pick to check the success or failure of that slot over that past 10 years or so. It's not the slot, it's the combination of the player and the team and the scheme and how he's used.
Same deal here.
Hell, the greatest QB in the history of the game my have been ruined early in his career by a bad team and we never even got to see him start. 
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That could be ....... but we'll never know for sure. It's impossible to prove what could have happened with anyone. Obviously football is a team sport, and no one will succeed with complete crap around them. The Rams lost both starting Tackles, and both starting wide receivers ... plus their 3rd string guy this past season. That absolutely had a negative impact on the entire team. It would have been like us starting Carlton Mitchell and Rod Windsor .... and playing Hicks and Cousins at the Tackle positions. *shudder*  I don't know if any QB could be expected to do much in that situation. There certainly is a relationship between the talent a guy is given to work with on the field, and his success. However, there is also a huge relationship between what that talent can do with a talented QB, compared to what they can do with a so-so QB. Let's look at a team in our division ... the Ravens. They had Kyle Boller at QB. They struggled mightily with their passing game. They had Clayton and Mason and Head, and Lewis and Taylor ......... all in all, a lot of talent around the QB. They brought in 33 year old Steve McNair, a guy obviously no longer at the top of his game ,,,,, and a guy who had seen age and injuries rob him of much of the capability he had shown earlier in his career ...... but regardless, he helped that team to a 13-3 record. He was all but washed up, yet he was a far, far superior QB to Boller. Kyle Boller, meanwhile, has gone on to play for St Louis and Oakland, and is 0-5 over that 3 year stretch. He is best at getting the team lined up, and executing very simple plays. If you need a big play from him, it is just as likely to be a big play against you. I don't think that the talent around a QB raises him up as much as a QB raises the talent around him up. The Lions have had Calvin Johnson, quite possibly the best WR in the past decade, for the past 4 years. He catches everything, and breaks more big plays out of nothing than anyone I can think of. He went 0-16, 2-14, and 6-10 before breaking through with a playoff team at 10-6 this year. The Lions had Matthew Stafford this season for the entire year. He came through with a 41 TD season. Johnson may have been the premium, speed rated tires, and the high performance transmission ...... but Stafford was the engine. How has Arizona fared with the great Larry Fitzgerald? How about without Kurt Warner? They have had Fitzgerald for 8 years now. They had Warner for 5 years. (one lost to injury) Want to guess who was QB during their only 2 winning seasons during Fitzgerald's 8 year career? There is no argument that the team that is put around a QB matters. No QB can make chicken salad out of chicken crap. However, a great QB can raise an average team to greatness, while a good team with an average QB languishes. I look around the league and look at how many really good WR play on really bad teams. We had Braylon Edwards .... and he had exactly one great season. So did the team. Steve Smith has 2 sub par years with a declined Jake Delhomme and Jimmy Claussen at QB ...... yet rebounded in a huge way with Cam Newton's arrival. Brandon Marshall has had good years in Miami .... but has the team? He did have a much better year this year than last year, and so did the team, despite starting out 0-7 . What was the difference? What changed? Dwayne Bowe had a great year in KC. So did Vincent Jackson in San Diego, but I feel that situation is a mess because of the coach. Heyward-Bey, Harvin, Jackson, Wayne ...... there are a lot of top 25 receivers who have not been the difference maker for their teams. I do have a serious question, because I cannot think of such a situation off the top of my head ..... and because we just saw a really graphic example of the contrary situation ....... When has a team losing their main receiver caused them to go from playoffs to also-ran status? (while still playing the same QB) I can think of one example that runs against me as far as QB play goes, and that would be the Patriots losing Brady for a year to injury. They did seem to plug in Cassel and go on pretty well. They did drop from 16-0 to 11-5, but that was an impossible standard to maintain. The bigger thing was that they dropped from 589 points scored to 410. (Man, I'd love to just score that one year) So, anyway, can you think of an example where a playoff team became a non-playoff team because they lost their best WR? (while keeping the same QB)
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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j/c
THIS Browns team...RIGHT NOW...has no business drafting ANY player at #4 overall who has ANY reviews/ratings that include "boom or bust" or "might" or "could" in the text.
It is surely possible that any pick can bust...but at #4 overall...we'd best be picking a guy who is expected to have no noticeable bust potential.
I believe the above to be an absolute fact.
IMO, I would extend that same philosophy to our 1b pick.
We need one more year of significant personnel upgrades before we can go "boom or bust" in any first round.
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I know what you're saying, but any player can be a bust.
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Quote:
j/c
THIS Browns team...RIGHT NOW...has no business drafting ANY player at #4 overall who has ANY reviews/ratings that include "boom or bust" or "might" or "could" in the text.
It is surely possible that any pick can bust...but at #4 overall...we'd best be picking a guy who is expected to have no noticeable bust potential.
I believe the above to be an absolute fact.
IMO, I would extend that same philosophy to our 1b pick.
We need one more year of significant personnel upgrades before we can go "boom or bust" in any first round.
Interesting concept. I understand it and agree to some extent but...
We have lived through Savage talking about hitting singles and doubles in the draft. I often feel the urge to scream "screw that". I want the Browns to hit some home runs [I would call JT a HR, Haden/Sheard doubles (could improve their ratings) as our best picks].
I want to draft guys who are going to be good but MIGHT be great, who COULD be the next [insert name of hall of fame player at his position] AND I want the Browns to be right about it. I want players who have that BOOM potential AND I want the Browns to be right about him.
I hate the term "boom or bust". Tells me that the person who is talking about a player doesn't have a good enough evaluation of a player to have formed an opinion that he has faith in and can support. And to be honest there are a lot of players that show me something to make me think humm he could be something but there are some red flags that make me worry. I just don't have the time and film to form any better opinion than boom or bust on the guy. And that is fine for us fans but as a GM I would not accept that from my scouting department.
Am I perfect? No
Am I trying to be a better person?
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Didn't check but I think I remember Minnesota eating it pretty bad when they lost Sidney rice to injury.
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There certainly is a relationship between the talent a guy is given to work with on the field, and his success. However, there is also a huge relationship between what that talent can do with a talented QB, compared to what they can do with a so-so QB.
I wouldn't argue any of that as I agree. But again, my response to mac was that you cannot put a % of success/failure on a draft slot. It may be true that #2 drafted QB's have historically had a 43% (or whatever) success rate, but that has nothing at all to do with whomever is drafted in that same slot this year or next.
RGlll could be drafted #2 and end up in the HOF or be a complete bust. But that has nothing to do with historical numbers before he was drafted. It would have only to do with RGlll and the team who drafted him.
The percentage of success/failure may always and forever be 43% for a QB at that slot, but again, that has nothing to with the evaluation of any individual.
My point is that drafting RGlll at the #2 slot does not mean that he has a 43% chance of success. He may have a 100% chance of success as the success has everything to do with the individual and how he's handled and the team he is on and nothing to do with historical numbers.
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When has a team losing their main receiver caused them to go from playoffs to also-ran status? (while still playing the same QB)
I have no idea. But again, neither was talent at WR my star witness.
There are too many variables to put the success/failure on one ingredient. Coaching, OL, WR's, RB and the FO all contribute to a QB's failure as well as the QB himself. Granted, some QB's just don't have it. But even those who do can be ruined if enough of the variables that support his success are flawed.
On the other hand a less than perfect QB can have success if enough of the variables that support his success are quality.
If there were any one answer to a QB's success or failure that one could know before the fact then I'm sure the success percentage would be much higher.
Some say get your QB early. Some say build the team first. Which is right? I'm sure it's been done both ways to success. But more than simply taking one approach or the other is the details in how it's all done toward success. Either method can fail just as either method can prove successful.
The devil is in the details.
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The devil is in the details
That's a good way to look at it and I got a good  out of your star witness statement.
The Draft has always been a gamble.
You would like better then 50/50 odds on any pick, you hope for more the higher your selections are, but really your odds are no better and if you trade away picks to move up, then I think that you are hedging your bets that your odds are greater then 50% and that's why these prospects are well evaluated, because the higher the selection the more you have to lose in face value to those selections.
I'm not saying a team should never trade up, just that they better feel safer then having but a 50/50 chance at finding a keeper if they do.
And even the best laid plans can fail.
Last edited by FL_Dawg; 02/15/12 03:41 PM.
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The problems I have with Robert Griffeth draft pick.
RG3 draft pick, at 2, or 4 or 6 or even 22 overall means Colt McCoy See you later, whether we like it or not, but game 8 of 2012, see ya McCoy. RG3, is he better than Troy Smith? I don't know, is he better than Jamarcus Russell? I don't know.
Brady Quinn with legs. There I said it. OK, He played for Baylor. ... Oh my gosh that's such a red flag in my book, just like Couch played for Kentucky, or Quinn played for Notre Dame.
Like it or not, the BEST of the BEST don't go to Baylor, or any school less than or equal to Purdue, when they are coming out of High School, and if MY GUY is going to be a top 1st round draft pick, I want him to have been the BEST of the BEST coming out of High School.
Baylor, Right away anyone at Baylor gives me red flags as to the competition they faced, so they are under the gun to PROVE they can do it against top competition. So I'm looking for that big bowl game or big game vs a top football school. Where is it?
Baylor vs Tennesee Tech, ain't LSU V florida, aint, Alab, vs Ark, aint Mich vs Ohio St, aint even North Carolina vs Virginia Tech.
Baylor , big 12 school, played vs Kansas', the Misouri's, the Okla, Okla st's, the Nebraska's .
You can hate on this post all you want, it won't change the red flags, in my book
If Barkley comes out, he's 3rd this year at best, their ain't no way Luck is not going #1 overall, unless he pops an achilles, or gets a head injury or something.
So it's not even like RG3 is facing averag year competition, he's locked in as take it or leave it, by the fact of Barkley returning to school and Luck being pre-selected. Robert Griffeth, is not a hall of famer yet, for anybody, in any situation he is a college player, prospect.
He, moved city to city in a military family. Plus for a patriot yes, for a football player no. He's a fine individual, who has his act together, does that mean he can play football? It doesn't yes or no have any to do with if he can play football.
Terry Bradshaw was a football player, Todd Marinovich was a fine individual.
He's a track athelte, great for a right defensive end, a distraction for a quarterback.
RG3 hasn't won a bowl game with a dominating performance, yet you want to in effect give him the starting Browns qb job.
( He's got that killer instinct, he's a winner he's a football player, he's gonna make his entire team better) or
( He's a great athlete, he's gonna make plays all by himself, he's gonna sling the ball all over the field, hes' gonna run around and make things happen.)
I think he's the 2nd, and I think that doesn't work for quarterback in the NFL.
Let the Steelers or Ravens or Bengals get him.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Roethlisberger went to Miami of Ohio.
Bradford went to Oklahoma. (a Big 12 team)
McCoy went to Texas. (also in the Big 12)
Rivers went to NC State. (ACC is hardly a monster conference)
and there are probably many others ......
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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man, why did we draft Phil Taylor. he's terrible because he went to Baylor. all this time I was so happy with what I saw on the field from him as a rookie but now I see it so much more clearly
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