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Its still early in the draft process but at this point I do not trade up to get RG3, if hes there at 4 we take him but this team still has a lot of holes and 1st round picks are a valued commodity.
It's Official...I'm not gonna make it to the Draft...
Every time I see that comment it lights me on fire...
That is flawed thinking...
If we are willing to take Griffin at 4...That means we think he is FRANCHISE QUALITY...
When u think a QB is Franchise Quality u do everything u can to MAKE SURE U SECURE HIM...
The damn building CAN continue...Jeeeezezzzzz...
Haha I may not make it either. People don't seem to realize that if teams want a QB and don't hold the #1 pick, they either trade up or reach for him. Rarely do teams just wait and hope that a guy they want will fall to them.
Over the last 5 years, of QBs taken in the 1st round.
2007 - JaMarcus Russell - #1 pick
2007 - Brady Quinn - Trade up to #23
2008 - Matt Ryan
2008 - Joe Flacco - Trade up to #18
2009 - Matthew Stafford - #1 pick
2009 - Mark Sanchez - Trade up to #5
2009 - Josh Freeman - Trade up to #17
2010 - Sam Bradford - #1 pick
2010 - Tim Tebow - Trade up to #25
2011 - Cam Newton - #1 pick
2011 - Jake Locker - Considered a reach at #8
2011 - Blaine Gabbert - Trade up to #10
2011 - Christian Ponder - Considered a big reach at #12
None of this is even considering that many of those #1 picks and guys traded up for were considered moderate-to-huge reaches. That makes 1/13 QBs drafted in the 1st in the past 5 years who a) wasn't a #1 pick but b) considered a reasonably appropriate value at a spot that c) didn't require trading up or reaching (and likely 1/15+ after this year).
It's just the nature of the beast. Getting a 1st round franchise QB is a high stakes game and teams that want one more often than not have to give up value through extra picks to beat other teams to the punch or give up value by reaching. If we want RGIII, we will likely have to give up more than we'd like... but you know what? That's what it takes these days and I'm more than willing to do that than cross my fingers and hope that we get the rare stud who comes from somewhere other than the 1st.
We're... we're good?
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J/C The good news is, if we sign Matt Flynn we won't have any more "move up to get RGIII" threads. Unfortunately, we'll have all the why it was good/horrible that we signed Flynn threads. At least we'll be beating a new dead horse until the draft! 
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
-Derek Jeter
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"Browns - 4 , 22 , 68 , 100" To move up TWO spots?? Ridiculous.
NO way I make that trade for RGIII. I would probably do it to move up to #1 for Luck. But then again it would probably take more to move up to #1.
Don't blame the clown for acting like a clown.
Ask yourself why you keep going to the circus.
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NO way I make that trade for RGIII. I would probably do it to move up to #1 for Luck. But then again it would probably take more to move up to #1.
Agreed on both counts.
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
-Derek Jeter
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The system shouldn't be changed. BUT things should be added to take advantage of his athleticism (more shotgun, a little option, etc.)
The "System" is always being tweaked and modified to take advantage of what your players can do, what they do best and to exploit match ups. It isn't this rigid stagnant entity.
I think the point of the original comment is that if we take RGIII, there are a lot of things that he can do that McCoy cannot so we need to exploit those talents.
Don't blame the clown for acting like a clown.
Ask yourself why you keep going to the circus.
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"Browns - 4 , 22 , 68 , 100" To move up TWO spots?? Ridiculous.
NO way I make that trade for RGIII. I would probably do it to move up to #1 for Luck. But then again it would probably take more to move up to #1.
That looks about right, maybe we keep #68 and have to forfeit a 2113 2nd round selection instead.
Just because I'm willing to take a gamble on a QB prospect at #4 doesn't mean I should be willing to give up more then he is worth.
That's flawed thinking.
It means that I am willing to gamble on the face value of that selection.
If I am trading up, then I am hedging my bets that I have better then 50/50 odds that said player will be "the guy".
If I am trading away picks to move up to grab said QB prospect and I am not overly confident that said player gives me better then 50/50 odds.
Then I'm stuck on stupid for making that trade.
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Legend
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I've just recently come around to taking RG3 at #4, but have NO interest in trading up for him...
By that logic, you might as well give up whatever the cost for Luck. Even I have my limits to trading for Luck now (#4, #22 OR 2013 #1, Plus 2-3 lower picks)
Do I expect Griffin to come out Cam Newton style and throw for 400 yards? Not really no, But I do think he could be a spark. And maybe, I dunno, we'll score more than 13 points a game...
RG3 at #4, Kendall Wright/Alshon Jefferies at #22, Resign Hillis, LaMichael James in the 3rd round, RT in the 2nd, offense is on it's way to being "fixed" IMO
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Legend
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Its still early in the draft process but at this point I do not trade up to get RG3, if hes there at 4 we take him but this team still has a lot of holes and 1st round picks are a valued commodity.
It's Official...I'm not gonna make it to the Draft...
Every time I see that comment it lights me on fire...
That is flawed thinking...
If we are willing to take Griffin at 4...That means we think he is FRANCHISE QUALITY...
When u think a QB is Franchise Quality u do everything u can to MAKE SURE U SECURE HIM...
The damn building CAN continue...Jeeeezezzzzz...
DinD this is my thinking as well.. if you are the front office and you are relatively sure Colt isn't the guy and you believe strongly that RGIII IS the guy, then go get him even if it costs you a couple picks.
The Lions drafted Harrington 3rd overall in 2002.. he wasn't the guy... they floundered, tinkering with other QBs while "trying to build the team" for 7 years (never winning more than 7 games) before drafting Stafford, who it looks like is the guy.. we have to find the guy and if we try and fail, then we have to try again. Would Calvin Johnson or Javid Best or Suh be close to play in the playoffs if Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton was their QB? No, they would not.
yebat' Putin
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I think the press for RGIII is because Luck is a foregone conclusion at 1. It's more fun for the media to speculate about who will trade up to #2 (if anyone) and how much they'll have to give up than to say "It's Thursday, and the Colts are still drafting Andrew Luck at #1."
LOL...and Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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"Browns - 4 , 22 , 68 , 100" To move up TWO spots?? Ridiculous.
NO way I make that trade for RGIII. I would probably do it to move up to #1 for Luck. But then again it would probably take more to move up to #1.
That looks about right, maybe we keep #68 and have to forfeit a 2113 2nd round selection instead.
I would trade the entire 2113 draft for him. 
How does a league celebrating its 100th season only recognize the 53 most recent championships?
#gmstrong
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"Browns - 4 , 22 , 68 , 100" To move up TWO spots?? Ridiculous.
NO way I make that trade for RGIII. I would probably do it to move up to #1 for Luck. But then again it would probably take more to move up to #1.
That looks about right, maybe we keep #68 and have to forfeit a 2113 2nd round selection instead.
I would trade the entire 2113 draft for him.
 
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Mayock (who really cares) says RG3 is worth over-paying for and the supporters are coming out of the woodwork feeling vindicated! Good luck with that.  I'm sure glad that H&H are making these decisions and not Mayock! 
#GMSTRONG
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Thanks for doing this:
2007 - JaMarcus Russell - #1 pick Bust
2007 - Brady Quinn - Trade up to #23 Bust
2008 - Matt Ryan Probably good
2008 - Joe Flacco - Trade up to #18 Good
2009 - Matthew Stafford - #1 pick I like this kid,, but injury prone
2009 - Mark Sanchez - Trade up to #5 IMO,, will Bust
2009 - Josh Freeman - Trade up to #17 Too soon to call
2010 - Sam Bradford - #1 pick Probalby good, but so far ehh
2010 - Tim Tebow - Trade up to #25 Probably good
2011 - Cam Newton - #1 pick early to tell, but probably good
2011 - Jake Locker - Considered a reach at #8 Early not sure
2011 - Blaine Gabbert - Trade up to #10 not sure but too early
2011 - Christian Ponder - Considered a big reach at #12 Early but looks good
I'm not all that impressed with the results apparently...LOL
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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I've just recently come around to taking RG3 at #4, but have NO interest in trading up for him...
osu...I can respect you viewpoint..especially the value you put on the Browns hard earned draft picks. I'm of the opinion that the Browns can't just give draft picks away like some suggest.
For me, the jury is still out...I have seen nothing in the RG video that convinces me he worthy of a #4 and #22 draft pick.
There are other options, better options, imo.
Matt Flynn is a better NFL QB today than RG...years ahead of him.
Jason Campbell knows the WCO and had his best two years as a pro running Jim Zorn's WCO, which came from Holmgren.
Donavan McNabb might be a good veteran QB, to help mentor McCoy or any young QBs. Wallace does not see himself as a mentor yet and I question his value to the team.
Ryan Tannehill has QB talents that RG does not, but he is inexperienced and will require some time to develop.
There are other intriguing prospects in this draft that might do well at the pro level, but all will require time to develop.
Other than Luck, there are no qb in this draft capable of stepping in and starting for the Browns this coming year. All will need time to be molded into a Pro QB.
I watched video of Colt McCoy today, when he was a senior at Texas...those who claim he can't throw the deep ball need to take a look at his senior year.
When McCoy was a rookie for the Browns he showed some of those same capabilities, but far less frequent than he did in college.
In Shurmur's offense, McCoy lost confidence in either himself, his receivers, his offensive line or all of the above. Looking at the video available on line makes it tough to know for sure what the issue might be because it does not show all the receivers running their routes, so we have no idea if there is anyone open deep.
I will say this..especially early in the year, the Browns offensive line gave up real estate so fast, by the time McCoy set up, the pass rush was on him, allowing at the most a dump off pass.
It might be that McCoy's fight/flight response kicked in so quickly due to the early Oline issues, that McCoy developed a habit of dumping the ball off too soon to save a sack.
I have confidence that this coaching staff will figure out what is going on with the Browns passing game and do a much better job of addressing all the needs and issues.
If the Oline needs some fixing...fix it.
If the WRs are not good enough, get some better WRs.
If it's McCoy, work with him and help him develop. Why is it important to coach up McCoy?...because, if the Browns draft a rookie, the rookie will not be starting, McCoy will be.
Now if the Browns go the FA direction, McCoy will have competition for job.
I trust this coaching staff to make the best decision for the franchise. They are going to be able to stand 5 yds behind RGIII,Tannehill and the rest of the QBs at the combine and evaluate them better than any of us can.
We are the amatures...Holmgren, Heckert, Shurmur, Chilly and Whipple are the Pros when it comes to knowing how to evaluate QB talent.
Last edited by mac; 02/16/12 09:02 PM.
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Mayock (who really cares) says RG3 is worth over-paying for and the supporters are coming out of the woodwork feeling vindicated!
Good luck with that.
I'm sure glad that H&H are making these decisions and not Mayock!
Same here.
I like Mayock, but I don't think he would be so bold ... If he had to put his $ where his mouth is.
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Cleveland Browns must out-bid Washington Redskins to trade up for pick to draft Robert Griffin III, says ESPN's Todd McShay Published: Thursday, February 16, 2012, 8:56 PM Updated: Thursday, February 16, 2012, 9:11 PM Mary Kay Cabot, The Plain Dealer By Mary Kay Cabot, The Plain Dealer CLEVELAND, Ohio -- ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay thinks the Browns will have to win a bidding war with the Washington Redskins to trade up to No. 2 with the St. Louis Rams to select Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. And if it were him, he wouldn’t hesitate to surrender the No. 4 and No. 22 picks to pull off the deal. The Redskins own the No. 6 and No. 39 overall picks. “I would do it,” McShay said of the Browns trading their two first-round picks. “I wouldn’t do it for any other position, but I would do it for quarterback.” McShay said the Heisman Trophy winner doesn’t have much to prove physically at the NFL Combine next week, but he must sell himself in interviews to the Browns and Redskins. “I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t floor both of those teams with his intelligence and his understanding of the game,” McShay said. “I think it’s going to be a competition between the two to see who can get up there when it’s all said and done,” he said. McShay ventured to say that if not for Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck — who’s expected to go No.1 to the Colts — Griffin would be competing for the top spot on the board. “I think he’s every bit worth the [No. 2] pick,” McShay said. “I’ve got him as the third prospect overall in this class, and I think that if the Browns want him, they need to move up and get him. I’ll be surprised if he lasts until four, and I’ll be even surprised if he gets to No. 3 because I think that No. 2 pick is up for public auction. I think the Rams are going to get a good deal to move back and can still get a player they want at tackle or wide receiver. “And if it’s not Cleveland, then it’s probably going to be Washington [at No. 6] right behind them leapfrogging Cleveland to get up to No. 2.” According to the NFL’s draft value chart, the Browns’ No. 4 and No. 22 picks would be almost equal to the value of the No. 2 pick, which is worth 2,600 points. The No. 4 is worth 1,800 and the No. 22 is worth 780 for a total of 2,580. Throw in a sixth-round pick worth about 20 points, and the Browns are right there. The Redskins, on the other hand, total 2,110 points with their first two picks. The No. 6 pick is worth 1,600 and the No. 39 overall pick is worth 510. In order to top the Browns’ offer, they’d likely have to throw in a third-rounder this year or a second-rounder next year. But the Browns’ offer guarantees the Rams will still be able to get either Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon or USC tackle Matt Kalil at No. 4. “It may seem like you’re giving up too much, but I’d much rather nail it at the quarterback position than sit there at four, miss out on the quarterback, get [Alabama’s] Trent Richardson at running back, Michael Floyd or someone at receiver and still not have anyone to get them the football that you feel great about,” McShay said. That’s not to say he thinks that Colt McCoy will never be a good starting quarterback in the NFL. “I think we’ve seen enough flashes, but I think we’ve also seen teams adjust to his inability to consistently throw the ball down the field with velocity and accuracy,” he said. “Those were the concerns. That’s why he was a third-round pick coming out. Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick and is one of the greatest of all time, so you never really know, but there’s a reason that guys end up going where they go in terms of what they can do at the next level. “I think with McCoy, we’ve kind of seen in the last couple of years that he has the intangibles — the toughness, the competitiveness, the ability to move and keep plays alive and accuracy underneath — but the limitations are there.” Therefore, the Browns should grab the brass ring when they have the chance, McShay said. “When you have an opportunity at the one position that just seems to change the franchise — it’s really the only correlation between all of the good teams is really good quarterback play,” he said. “There’s a reason the vast majority of teams drafting in the top 15 need a quarterback and the vast majority of the teams drafting in the bottom 15 don’t.” McShay said he wasn’t that impressed with Griffin’s 2010 season. In fact, he had a third-round grade on him then and wasn’t sure he’d work out as a pro quarterback. But he saw the light in 2011. “He really grew on me,” McShay said. “I got coach’s copy tape from this year and saw the improvement with his accuracy, with his anticipation, specifically with his accuracy down the field, too. I thought he showed a lot more touch and was able to drop the ball in and make accurate throws vertically. Can he still improve in that area? Of course he can. I think, sometimes, he’s got to learn to take a little bit of heat off his fastball and throw more catchable throws in the short to intermediate [range], but he has really made huge strides as a passer in terms of that accuracy, and it’s so important.” What impressed McShay even more than Griffin’s world-class speed was his terrific arm and football acumen. “You look at the athleticism, which is through the roof, his speed, which is exceptional, and it leads to a lot of potential big plays when he does decide to take off and run,” McShay said. “But what I like about him is he is a true passer first, and he’s not an impatient guy that’s always looking to get outside the pocket. He will sit in there, he’ll hang tough, he can throw from a lot of different launch points, he can snap the ball off and has a strong arm and I love his mental makeup. He’s a leader, he’s tough and, most importantly, he’s smart. He picks things up quickly, and I haven’t found a person I’ve talked to that says anything but great things about him in the classroom and understanding offensive concepts and just his natural intelligence.” web page
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Where have I seen this before.
1. Sign a stop gap QB
2. Wait until next draft
3. Repeat step 1 and 2
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Dawg Talker
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Quote:
That is flawed thinking...
If we are willing to take Griffin at 4...That means we think he is FRANCHISE QUALITY...
When u think a QB is Franchise Quality u do everything u can to MAKE SURE U SECURE HIM...
The damn building CAN continue...Jeeeezezzzzz...
So it's flawed that I don't want to give up another 1st round pick for a QB who has played most of his college ball from the spread, wasn't required to read defenses pre-snap and doesn't fit the mold of the QB our offense is being designed around. Don't get me wrong, there is a lot I like about Griffin but there are still questions about him as well.
If he's there at 4 I'd take him but we can add another starter with #22 be it a WR, OL, DL. If Griffin were taken at #2 by the Redskins I'd be perfectly fine with a Claiborne or Blackmon at #4 to go with another starter (CB, WR, OL, DL, LB) we can get at #22. Heck I'd even trade down if we could still nab Richardson and add more picks. Unlike past drafts Heckert seems to know what he's doing.
And if we should do whatever it takes to grab someone we think is a franchise QB then we should be trading our entire draft for Luck. He's the sure thing and the only person in this draft I would trade up from #4 to grab.
The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
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Legend
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I am not a huge fan of claiborne.
He is very raw and was never a true playmaker for LSU.
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Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Where have I seen this before.
1. Sign a stop gap QB
2. Wait until next draft
3. Repeat step 1 and 2
candy...it makes perfect sense to me to continue building the supporting cast surrounding the QB, rather than spend our hard earned 4th and 22nd first round picks, on just one position, a QB, who is not likely to even start next season.
Haven't Browns fans learned, it takes a "team" of 11 players to win consistently...not just 1 player?
Home of the Free, Because of the Brave...
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If the Browns feel Griffin is the guy, move up and never look back.
No doubt a unit is a team of 11. However, the one spot you have to have right is the QB.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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OP
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Quote:
Thanks for doing this:
2007 - JaMarcus Russell - #1 pick Bust
2007 - Brady Quinn - Trade up to #23 Bust
2008 - Matt Ryan Probably good
2008 - Joe Flacco - Trade up to #18 Good
2009 - Matthew Stafford - #1 pick I like this kid,, but injury prone
2009 - Mark Sanchez - Trade up to #5 IMO,, will Bust
2009 - Josh Freeman - Trade up to #17 Too soon to call
2010 - Sam Bradford - #1 pick Probalby good, but so far ehh
2010 - Tim Tebow - Trade up to #25 Probably good
2011 - Cam Newton - #1 pick early to tell, but probably good
2011 - Jake Locker - Considered a reach at #8 Early not sure
2011 - Blaine Gabbert - Trade up to #10 not sure but too early
2011 - Christian Ponder - Considered a big reach at #12 Early but looks good
I'm not all that impressed with the results apparently...LOL
Take a look at what u just did...And I'd argue Sanchez was a reach also...And that Russell was a major reach...Davis has always loved that deep vertical threat and he fell in love with Russell's arm throwing 70 yards on his knees...Great way to determine the quality of a QB...lmao...
So...All the rest were either the #1 pick in said draft or 3 in Ryan's case...And every single one of them r FRANCHISE QUALITY and have had alot of success...And I'd venture to say that will continue...Bradford being the exception due missed time and OC change each year...
And guess what else...Those teams taking those QB's that high all sucked and had major holes all over the place...And they r continuing to build around that QB...Did they trade up for these QB's???...NO...The Browns r possibly looking to HAVE to move up to 2 and the first pick they will depart with is an EXTRA first rounder from previous trade...
Now look at the rest of those QB's...And you're right about the Lockers/Gabberts/Ponders...Way 2 soon to tell...BUT...All 3 r considered MAJOR reaches because of the position they play in a QB needy league...Lots of trading up for alot of those guys...
Again...Take a LONG look at that list and your comments...Because if we do this YOUR way...Passing on the opportunity to secure RGIII...Even burning the 22 pick in lieu of keeping all picks...Adding more by moving down...Building the team first...THIS is what you're looking at in the next 2 or 3 years when we r stuck on 8-8/9-7 and drafting in the 20 area...
Guys...We r in the perfect set up to go get a SOLID QB...It doesn't get any better than this other than having the #1 pick...We r going to tear Griffin apart for the next 9-10 weeks...And I'm POSITIVE that this FO is NOT sold on a 3rd round QB who is physically limited...It's obvious we aren't...I think we will LOVE what Luck and RGIII will bring to this team...And Griffin is there for the taking...GO GET HIM...
Talents like Luck and Griffin r not available outside the Top 5...If we wait we will be moving up in coming years for MUCH lesser talent at QB...Simply because we will be drafting outside the Top 15...And that vicious cycle u refer to about QB's in Cleveland will continue...If we use this full draft and NOT get Griffin...Coupled with FA moves...We r ALOT closer to 8-8/9-7 than many think...
Go Browns!!!
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I don't want to trade up for Griffin.. but at the end of the day.. lets just say we DO select him..
Do you think we'll go after some of the older vets? Randy Moss? Chad Ochocinco? Terrell Owens?
I know in the past Heckert has said he doesn't like guys already in the NFL w/ previous issues.. SO the chances are slim to none most likely.. but I like all 3 of those guys..
Moss has potential to cause the most drama. He only shuts up if things are going his way.. Owns is right behind him, but lately has been a lot more humble. Ocho has proved himself to be a good sport and keep quiet.
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Actually, I think Randy Moss would be a terrific fit for RGIII.
And I think TO would be a terrific fit for the WCO. There aren't many receivers who have been better at YAC over the years than TO.
Thinking about it, it would be pretty awesome if we signed both TO and Randy Ratio and drafted a QB that could sling it.
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J/C
I find it a bit ironic that some writers are saying how great it would be for the Rams to trade back to get more picks since they have holes to fill. Yet, at the same time, they say a team like the Browns - who also has holes to fill, should give up picks to get 1 player. I know the argument will be that the Rams have Bradford, but is he going to be a top NFL QB?
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
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Quote:
I don't want to trade up for Griffin.. but at the end of the day.. lets just say we DO select him..
Do you think we'll go after some of the older vets? Randy Moss? Chad Ochocinco? Terrell Owens?
I know in the past Heckert has said he doesn't like guys already in the NFL w/ previous issues.. SO the chances are slim to none most likely.. but I like all 3 of those guys..
Moss has potential to cause the most drama. He only shuts up if things are going his way.. Owns is right behind him, but lately has been a lot more humble. Ocho has proved himself to be a good sport and keep quiet.
Not sure what Heckert thinks of Moss or Ocho,, but I bet given his experience with TO,, that would be a NO GO..
#GMSTRONG
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Quote:
Do you think we'll go after some of the older vets? Randy Moss? Chad Ochocinco? Terrell Owens?
Ochocinco has to prove that he can get his quickness back and get open before there's any chance we pick him up.
I also hear that he has issues with learning playbooks, and seeing as we run the WCO, which is based on structure, timing, and route running; I just don't see that going for him either.
Randy would have to show he's a shread of his former self also. His production in the NFL the last couple of years he played has been awful. And one year off just means one year older........
That's sort of the same case with TO, except TO has shown he could still play two years ago.
Still, after the Eagles had their issues with Owens, and I think you probably want a veteran QB with a strong.......will/personality (not so impressionable) to match Owens. So I think that would make Heckert hesitant
Plus Owens needs to show that he has't lost much physical ability due to A) The injury he faced and B) Another year of getting older
I just don't see it happening
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Quote:
J/C
I find it a bit ironic that some writers are saying how great it would be for the Rams to trade back to get more picks since they have holes to fill. Yet, at the same time, they say a team like the Browns - who also has holes to fill, should give up picks to get 1 player. I know the argument will be that the Rams have Bradford, but is he going to be a top NFL QB?
You answered your question.
As for Bradford, everything points to him being a good qb.
Let's put it this way, i don't think many teams would turn him down if given the chance to get him, and I don't think many teams would give up on him at this point.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Of the 3, I think Moss is the one who might still have something in the tank.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Quote:
J/C
I find it a bit ironic that some writers are saying how great it would be for the Rams to trade back to get more picks since they have holes to fill. Yet, at the same time, they say a team like the Browns - who also has holes to fill, should give up picks to get 1 player. I know the argument will be that the Rams have Bradford, but is he going to be a top NFL QB?
honestly, it doesn't matter because they are locked into him as starting QB for probably the next 2 seasons due to his contract (last of the ridiculous #1 overall deals - thankfully we didn't get that one)
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I bet if you lined up TO with all of our receivers today, he'd have more strength and speed than any of them. Maybe Carlton Mitchell beats him in a 40, but I wouldn't bet on it. The last guy to keep himself in shape like TO was Jerry Rice, who played in the NFL for 20 years.
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Quote:
Do you think we'll go after some of the older vets? Randy Moss? Chad Ochocinco? Terrell Owens?
hot...if the Browns spend both first round draft picks on RG, there goes any chance to land Blackmon, Floyd (ND), Jeffery (SC), Wright (Baylor) or Sanu (Rutgers).
The Browns will be forced to turn to free agency and to engage in a bidding war to land any of the top FA WRs. As for the old retreads you mentioned...lord I hope we don't to go that low to get a WR.
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hot...if the Browns spend both first round draft picks on RG, there goes any chance to land Blackmon, Floyd (ND), Jeffery (SC), Wright (Baylor) or Sanu (Rutgers).
When I first read this, I thought "man, mac must really hate Lauvao."
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I just worry about the knee surgery. Of all of them I like TO best. Maybe because he played his college ball here.
All I know is the Browns need to start signing some of these free agents. I have come to believe a poor team can't build through the draft alone. It just takes to long.
I don't think it possible to fill 10-12 holes in your roster over 3-4 drafts, and really, that's the window teams work with due to contract cycles. Teams change....even the good ones...just look at New England.
I look at all players more or less as "rental" players. Over time you keep some and lose some. Most of the good teams end up with 3-4- maybe 5 players on each side of the ball who become the core. You have to do something with the other 6-7-8 positions, and in that 4-5 year span you won't be able to fill all of those with drafted players. You have got to add some solid, proven players to keep you afloat.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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jc..
Those of you who get into this draft strategy stuff, try to wrap your brain around this...found it yesterday while researching...enjoy. Anyone who understands this and can explain it in a paragraph or two..please do..thanks.
Robert Griffin III Pre-Draft Value and Game Theory
February 15, 2012
–Mike Lombardi on the B.S. report, transciption via B/R
The NFL draft is more or less a strategic game. It’s an important one, and the winner of it isn’t always rewarded with the best draft, because there are a lot of post-draft factors that determine the success of a class. And winning this game is relative anyway. Some battles are already won and lost on the day the players declare.
There are essentially just six players in the Robert Griffin game. There are the potential sellers: the Rams and Vikings, there are the potential buyers: the Redskins, Seahawks, and Dolphins, and you have the most important player, the Cleveland Browns, the only team in position to both buy and sell. The game could theoretically be expanded to include the Tampa Bay Bucs and the Washington Redskins as sellers, but then we’re getting into situations that have less than a 10% chance of occurring. I will stick to the most likely six players in this discussion, and treat the Redskins as either a buyer or a non-player.
Michael Lombardi is typically wired into the inner-workings of teams’ thinking with regard to the NFL draft, but I believe I can use game theory and a couple of reasonable assumptions to prove that he’s not accurate in the above quote, and then I will be proven right as things break down. I don’t think it is likely that Robert Griffin goes second overall after Andrew Luck goes first, but I think the Washington Redskins ultimately determine how able the Rams are to trade their pick. And the story on the Redskins is that they want Griffin and are looking to name their price, but aren’t going to overpay for the Heisman trophy winner.
And even though Mike Shanahan has a tendency to go-it-alone on football decisions, I think his evaluation of Griffin as clearly the second best QB in the draft, but in a normal year, should be available at the 6th pick, is a lot closer — I think — than Lombardi’s assertion that he’s only not going to go no. 1 because Luck is going to force him to go no. 2.
This is relevant to the St. Louis Rams. It makes sense for the Rams to begin with the assumption that everyone is going to trade up for RG3. There are four potential buyers who are more likely to want RG3 than the Rams (or Colts): Cleveland, Washington, Miami, and Seattle. Here’s the problem: Cleveland and Washington don’t really want to consider a trade up for RG3. They certainly have the ammo to pull it off, but they talk, and Washington and Cleveland are not going to compete with each other for RG3. Seattle remains an RG3 longshot because if you’re the Rams, you don’t really want to take a year where you “earned” the second overall pick, and end up not picking in the top ten. The Rams are going to fall in love with a player they want, and even though they could pick up mulitple first round picks to move out of the top ten, the value of the 2012 first rounder declines so much with that move it is almost not worth doing.
If Miami wins the coin toss and picks 8th overall, things get really interesting. I could see the Rams being willing to drop down six spots — thinking the draft might be deep enough to offer an elite talent at no. 8 (some are, most aren’t) — and pick up Miami’s first round pick next year plus multiple additional 2012 picks to do so, headlined by a third rounder. There are multiple problems with the Miami scenario: Miami is going to be very active in the FA market as well as the trade market in the weeks leading up to the draft, and if they make a splashy move such as signing Peyton Manning, they will need their first round picks the next two years a lot more than they need RG3.
To recap: for Miami to be a serious player for the second overall pick, a couple of things need to happen. Miami must fail to acquire a veteran who they feel would be a significant upgrade over Matt Moore in 2012. St. Louis must feel that the draft is so deep with elite talent, that picking at no. 8 (or 9) would be preferable to reaching for someone they like at no. 2. There is no doubt that St. Louis would much rather pick at no. 4 or no. 6. I do think it is likely that if Miami doesn’t end up getting into the RG3 mix, someone else like Seattle or a mystery team (Denver? Kansas City? Philadelphia? New Orleans?) would be interested. Let’s say Miami makes no acquisitions and that the end up being the third player in this game.
I’m not ruling out an aggressive move from the Seahawks, I just don’t think it’s likely. So if the Rams are certain to trade the second pick to a team to take RG3, as Lombardi suggests, either the Dolphins are going to need to get really desperate (which is probably more likely than them not getting desperate in free agency first — this is where understanding game theory comes in), or there needs to be a Cleveland-Washington competition for RG3.
But if free agency eliminates all teams but Washington and Cleveland for Griffin (Flynn to Seattle; Manning to Miami; Alex Smith and Mark Sanchez stay), I don’t see how Lombardi’s position looks likely.
Let’s assume that Lombardi is completely correct, and Cleveland and Washington have both been hiding plans to give up an entire draft to the Rams and get RG3. Well, now St. Louis opens the bidding at multiple first round picks plus a second and a third. Neither franchise wants to pay that price and it’s an easy bluff to call. Cleveland is (still hypothetically) willing to package both first round picks for RG3, and possibly throw in their third rounder. That is both 1) a higher price than the Redskins can or will match, and 2) still significantly overpaying the market. So Cleveland wins the bidding for Griffin. That means the Rams get that price for Griffin, right?
Well, sure, according to Lombardi. But unless Cleveland is wreckless, why would they overpay the market by so much? There are no other bidders at that price. The Rams cannot execute a trade if they don’t have any other offers.
If Cleveland holds out to not put the third rounder in, what collateral would they have that would allow them to hold the Rams hostage as the clock winds down? Well, they have this: the Vikings pick third, and Cleveland picks fourth. If Roger Goodell was to suddenly outlaw draft pick trading, there is a very high probability that Cleveland would be able to select Griffin at fourth overall. That is the mock draft consensus. And in actuality, that’s is the “true pre-draft” value, of Robert Griffin. Competition can drive that price up, but as we’ve seen, free agency is going to limit the price of competition.
Back to the Rams. Now let’s say Cleveland, knowing all of the above, is willing to fork over their two first rounders — no more — for RG3. The Rams have three strategic plays: accept Cleveland’s deal, decline Cleveland’s deal and use the draft pick, or decline Cleveland’s deal and trade the pick to someone else. Washington is probably willing to offer their first round pick next year (remember: the assumption is they really value the chance to pick RG3), but that by itself isn’t better than the price Cleveland will play. The Redskins can probably throw in an additional 2012 pick to go over the top of Cleveland. But ultimately, you’re looking at a couple versions of the same value for the pick, and declining Cleveland’s best offer to take someone else’s best offer is probably more spiteful than rational.
To be honest, if St. Louis can actually get both of Cleveland’s first round picks to move from second to fourth, I expect them to do it. It would make the current talk of two first rounders and two thirds (or a second and a third) seem like hot air, but it is. I just happen to think that two first rounders is a high water mark for what the second overall pick is worth to teams. There won’t be fierce competition for it, and like every trade up in recent memory, the buyer is going to be able to name their price.
The biggest problem from the Rams perspective is that all of the analysis above is predicated on acceptance of Lombardi’s assertion that teams are truly willing to get the no. 2 pick and spend it on Robert Griffin. If that’s not informed speculation, they have no actual trade offers for the second pick, and will just be using the pick on best available player.
The Minnesota Vikings are reportedly willing to trade the third overall pick, and that is incredibly problematic for the Rams. If Cleveland was willing to trade two firsts for the second overall pick, and the Vikings are willing to give the third pick to them for just a first and a second rounder (or maybe a first and a third), then all they have to do in order to ensure getting RG3 is to make sure that they always have best offer for the no. 2 pick, and that the Rams can’t do business with someone else, in this case the Redskins. They have a huge advantage there picking inside the top four. The Rams, obviously, want the 4th overall pick, but can’t afford to part with the second pick without being adequately compensated for their trade down. So the Rams want to do business with the Browns more than any other team.
But the Browns don’t want to actually trade anything of value to the Rams unless the Rams get a solid offer on the table that makes sense to them. Right now, they don’t have such an offer. And so the Browns, not the Rams, are in the driver’s seat on RG3. If the Browns make a trade with the Vikings after the Rams pick Justin Blackmon, Matt Kalil, or whoever, then they are on the clock to take Griffin. If they don’t trade, they are still the team best positioned to take Griffin. Mike Mayock said in a conference call today that the Rams should be “thrilled” to get a package of the 4th and 27th overall picks for the second pick, which means they are unlikely to receive that.
In fact, the more digging into the situation you do, the more you realize that the entire plan for the Rams and the Vikings to trade down is predicated on two things: the Washington Redskins being interested, and competition from a desperate team somewhere else in the draft. If one of those things doesn’t occur, then the highest Robert Griffin can go is 4th to either the Browns, or whoever the Browns select as their trading partner. It is, actually, very safe to pencil Robert Griffin in as the 4th overall pick in the 2012 draft, because if the Browns do not take him, they will likely trade the pick to someone who will. The Browns hold the key to who gets Robert Griffin (because the Browns hold all the cards and the first crack at him), but the Redskins are the team that determines how much the second and third picks are worth.
Lets do this exercise again with one assumption: let’s say that the Redskins have an identical grade on Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill, and therefore will give up nothing to go up from sixth overall, and would flip a coin to determine which to take at sixth. In this exercise, we don’t assume the Browns will take him at fourth overall, but we know that the Browns determine who will get him. This is just an example to show how the Redskins lack of interest would affect the value of picks 2 and 3 in this draft.
Without the Redskins, the ability to land two first round picks for pick no. 2 becomes something of a pipe dream for St. Louis. Just like the last scenario, enough desperation from Miami could create a scenario like the one suggested by Lombardi where Griffin is definitely going to go second overall, and then it is just about weighing the value of Cleveland’s offer against Miami’s, but that desperation was always possible. In the absence of a competitive trade offer from the Redskins, Cleveland’s pick at 4th remains the most viable landing spot for Griffin. And Cleveland can let the board come to them, knowing that if the get overbid, they conceded the price to another suitor.
But now, without Washington trying to position itself in front of Cleveland, the Vikings and Rams are in direct competition for the right to field offers to jump Cleveland. Without Washington involved, there is no reason for anyone but Cleveland to pay market rate to move up. If St. Louis is being unreasonable, you can try to acquire Minnesota’s pick. Or vice versa. If St. Louis bows out, and takes Blackmon, Cleveland is still going to get action on RG3 at the 4th pick. Minnesota might be able to leverage a cheap swap of picks and pick up a third or fourth rounder for their troubles, but with Washington out, it’s Cleveland’s show. A one team show.
There’s still a good chance Robert Griffin winds up with someone else besides Cleveland. It just means that teams that are going to jump Cleveland in order to get RG3 aren’t going to be able to do so on their own merits, because Cleveland can offer so much more. The fact that teams are already negotiating trade up terms relative to what Cleveland can offer means that since the cost of RG3 is roughly equal to what Cleveland is willing to pay for him, it’s more cost efficient to cut out the middle man and assume that with Griffin likely to slide out of the top two or three picks, the most direct trade you can make is to compensate the Browns for not having Griffin on their team. Essentially, the game theory suggests that whatever RG3 is worth to the Browns, teams will let the board come to them, and then any team can opt to pay the Browns THAT PRICE, and use the fourth overall pick on RG3.
The Browns hold all the cards anyway, and the Rams and Vikings have no choice but to involve the Redskins. Griffin is likely to be the 4th overall pick in the draft. It is anyone’s guess who will actually hand the card to Mr. Goodell with Griffin’s name on it. But we can establish even two months out that Griffin isn’t likely to go until fourth overall, and that any team willing to trade a first rounder to jump the Browns in the 2012 draft is probably willing to give that price to the Browns as a means to the same end.
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That article made my eyes cross, mac . . .  Here's yet another Mary Kay article . . . Cleveland Browns must outbid Washington Redskins to trade up for pick to draft Robert Griffin III, says ESPN's Todd McShayFebruary 17, 2012 By Mary Kay Cabot, The Plain Dealer CLEVELAND, Ohio -- ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay thinks the Browns will have to win a bidding war with the Washington Redskins to trade up to No. 2 with the St. Louis Rams to select Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. And if it were him, he wouldn’t hesitate to surrender the No. 4 and No. 22 picks to pull off the deal. The Redskins own the No. 6 and No. 39 overall picks. “I would do it,” McShay said of the Browns trading their two first-round picks. “I wouldn’t do it for any other position, but I would do it for quarterback.” McShay said the Heisman Trophy winner doesn’t have much to prove physically at the NFL Combine next week, but he must sell himself in interviews to the Browns and Redskins. “I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t floor both of those teams with his intelligence and his understanding of the game,” McShay said. “I think it’s going to be a competition between the two to see who can get up there when it’s all said and done,” he said. McShay ventured to say that if not for Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck — who’s expected to go No.1 to the Colts — Griffin would be competing for the top spot on the board. “I think he’s every bit worth the [No. 2] pick,” McShay said. “I’ve got him as the third prospect overall in this class, and I think that if the Browns want him, they need to move up and get him. I’ll be surprised if he lasts until four, and I’ll be even surprised if he gets to No. 3 because I think that No. 2 pick is up for public auction. I think the Rams are going to get a good deal to move back and can still get a player they want at tackle or wide receiver. “And if it’s not Cleveland, then it’s probably going to be Washington [at No. 6] right behind them leapfrogging Cleveland to get up to No. 2.” According to the NFL’s draft value chart, the Browns’ No. 4 and No. 22 picks would be almost equal to the value of the No. 2 pick, which is worth 2,600 points. The No. 4 is worth 1,800 and the No. 22 is worth 780 for a total of 2,580. Throw in a sixth-round pick worth about 20 points, and the Browns are right there. The Redskins, on the other hand, total 2,110 points with their first two picks. The No. 6 pick is worth 1,600 and the No. 39 overall pick is worth 510. In order to top the Browns’ offer, they’d likely have to throw in a third-rounder this year or a second-rounder next year. But the Browns’ offer guarantees the Rams will still be able to get either Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon or USC tackle Matt Kalil at No. 4. “It may seem like you’re giving up too much, but I’d much rather nail it at the quarterback position than sit there at four, miss out on the quarterback, get [Alabama’s] Trent Richardson at running back, Michael Floyd or someone at receiver and still not have anyone to get them the football that you feel great about,” McShay said. That’s not to say he thinks that Colt McCoy will never be a good starting quarterback in the NFL. “I think we’ve seen enough flashes, but I think we’ve also seen teams adjust to his inability to consistently throw the ball down the field with velocity and accuracy,” he said. “Those were the concerns. That’s why he was a third-round pick coming out. Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick and is one of the greatest of all time, so you never really know, but there’s a reason that guys end up going where they go in terms of what they can do at the next level. “I think with McCoy, we’ve kind of seen in the last couple of years that he has the intangibles — the toughness, the competitiveness, the ability to move and keep plays alive and accuracy underneath — but the limitations are there.” Therefore, the Browns should grab the brass ring when they have the chance, McShay said. “When you have an opportunity at the one position that just seems to change the franchise — it’s really the only correlation between all of the good teams is really good quarterback play,” he said. “There’s a reason the vast majority of teams drafting in the top 15 need a quarterback and the vast majority of the teams drafting in the bottom 15 don’t.” McShay said he wasn’t that impressed with Griffin’s 2010 season. In fact, he had a third-round grade on him then and wasn’t sure he’d work out as a pro quarterback. But he saw the light in 2011. “He really grew on me,” McShay said. “I got coach’s copy tape from this year and saw the improvement with his accuracy, with his anticipation, specifically with his accuracy down the field, too. I thought he showed a lot more touch and was able to drop the ball in and make accurate throws vertically. Can he still improve in that area? Of course he can. I think, sometimes, he’s got to learn to take a little bit of heat off his fastball and throw more catchable throws in the short to intermediate [range], but he has really made huge strides as a passer in terms of that accuracy, and it’s so important.” What impressed McShay even more than Griffin’s world-class speed was his terrific arm and football acumen. “You look at the athleticism, which is through the roof, his speed, which is exceptional, and it leads to a lot of potential big plays when he does decide to take off and run,” McShay said. “But what I like about him is he is a true passer first, and he’s not an impatient guy that’s always looking to get outside the pocket. He will sit in there, he’ll hang tough, he can throw from a lot of different launch points, he can snap the ball off and has a strong arm and I love his mental makeup. He’s a leader, he’s tough and, most importantly, he’s smart. He picks things up quickly, and I haven’t found a person I’ve talked to that says anything but great things about him in the classroom and understanding offensive concepts and just his natural intelligence.”
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There's some sense and some hand waving in that article, but i like it!
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Quote:
I think, sometimes, he’s got to learn to take a little bit of heat off his fastball and throw more catchable throws in the short to intermediate [range],
McShay is a turd. This quote tells me he wasn't even watching Griffin's games until the Bowl game. He started off that game trying to prove Heldawg wrong by rocketing everything. His MO all year was as much touch as possible on all routes. Then you have guys who watch him play for two quarters and say he has a weak arm. 
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1st String
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When are McShay/Kiper right? They essentially have to make stuff up in order to have anything to write between the end of the NFL season and the draft. And we know that teams leak misinformation all the time anyways. Let's not forget that the same people (the media) saying that Cleveland needs RGIII and that he is our next franchise QB were also all on the Akili Smith bandwagon. If these guys were in any other industry, they would have been out of jobs long ago.
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