|
|
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,338
Dawg Talker
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,338 |
Let's take it a step further shall we? These are all teams in the top 10 that have draqfted their so Called franchise QB in the first round. How's that working out for them?
2)St Louis- Bradford
3)Minnesota- Ponder
4)Cleveland- Couch/Quinn
5)Tamp Bay- Freeman
6)Washington-Campbell
7)Jacksonville-Leftwich/Gabbart
9)Carolina-Newton Year before took Clausen in 2nd
"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445
Hall of Famer
|
|
OP
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445 |
Quote:
Let's take it a step further shall we? These are all teams in the top 10 that have draqfted their so Called franchise QB in the first round. How's that working out for them?
2)St Louis- Bradford
3)Minnesota- Ponder
4)Cleveland- Couch/Quinn
5)Tamp Bay- Freeman
6)Washington-Campbell
7)Jacksonville-Leftwich/Gabbart
9)Carolina-Newton Year before took Clausen in 2nd
LMAO...Whateverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...
32) Giants---Manning
30) Frisco--Smith
29) Balt--Flacco
28) GB---Rogers
24) Pitt---Burger
23) Detroit---Stafford
22) Atlanta---Ryan
19) Chi---Cutler
18) SD---Rivers
So what's the point??????
The BEST shot at a Quality QB u can keep around 10+ years and WIN consistently with is happening HIGH in Round One...
It's a shame u brain can't wrap around that...Cause it's FACT...
Go Browns!!!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,338
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,338 |
Quote:
32) Giants---Manning
30) Frisco--Smith
29) Balt--Flacco
28) GB---Rogers
24) Pitt---Burger
23) Detroit---Stafford
22) Atlanta---Ryan
19) Chi---Cutler
18) SD---Rivers
So what's the point??????
The BEST shot at a Quality QB u can keep around 10+ years and WIN consistently with is happening HIGH in Round One...
It's a shame u brain can't wrap around that...Cause it's FACT...
It's a shame U can't read because if you go back one more post it is a reply to DJ about not being in a position to get a Franchise QB in the top 10. You can spin it any way you like my brother..but facts is facts..How is Sam Bradford and the Rams picking 2nd again? How do his numbers look Dawg? Wrap your Brain on that. 
Three of those QB's you listed have won a SuperBowl..One was considered a bust until this year after 8 years in the league. One isn't with the same team that drafted him.
Last edited by LOYALDAWG; 02/18/12 01:38 PM.
"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 17,284
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 17,284 |
Fun fact: Heckert drafted Kolb out of UH. Same Art Briles's system at Baylor for RGIII. Shurmur was the QB coach for Kolb in Philly.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
Quote:
If RGiii is a bust, the damage done to this franchise could take years to overcome.
mac you really do come across as not wanting to draft a QB simply because you are scared they could bust.
If we want to become a perennial 8-9 win team we could take running backs, WRs, right tackles and we could be decent if those picks all pan out (which isn't likely)... we might even sneak into the playoffs once in a while.... if we want to be great, we need a top notch QB.. whether you think RGIII is that guy or not, we need a top notch QB at some point and getting to 8-9 wins isn't going to help us get one... it's only going to make it harder.
For years we have used high draft picks (1st and 2nd round) to "build the team".. WRs, TEs, LTs, CBs, DEs, DTs, LBs, Cs, Ss.... and we still suck. Our one first round QB sucked (I don't count Couch because on an expansion team he never had a chance)... so to say if we draft a QB and if he sucks, then we will suck for years to come is rather disengenuous.. since we have tried all sorts of OTHER options.. and we still suck.
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445
Hall of Famer
|
|
OP
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445 |
Man that sounds pretty bad...  But you're right... 
Go Browns!!!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,398 Likes: 280 |
Quote:
Umm maybe we should ask the Rams and the Vikings how they feel first about drafting a 1st round QB and still drafting before us. Bradford Statistically and by the eye looked worse than McCoy this Year, Maybe they should think about drafting Griffin because 2 years after using the #1 overall pick on the "best QB in Years", they are drafting 2nd..say it out loud..The Rams with Sam Bradford are drafting Second in the 2012 NFL draft.
Maybe they should. My personal opinion is that the Vikings had a rookie first rounder so you obviously give him another year.. even Peyton went 3-13 in his first year, nobody here is asking the Browns to do anything quite as knee-jerk as taking back to back first round QBs..
Bradford looked good his first year and his team was totally depleted by injury in his second.. he obviously gets another year because of the investment... The Rams are in a fairly good position as I see it, assuming they think Bradford is the guy.. they have their QB AND they have a very high pick they can either use on help for him or trade down to pick up more quality players... we are not in that position I don't think...
Right now we have very minimal investment in the QB spot, our best option on the roster is a 3rd year 3rd round pick.. who has looked shaky at best, much worse depending on who you ask...
yebat' Putin
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445
Hall of Famer
|
|
OP
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445 |
FYI... RGIII has his Pro Day March 21st per HIM... Does NFL Network cover Pro Days????????????????...I'd like to see this one... 
Go Browns!!!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,227
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,227 |
No one will argue that QBs can bust. That doesn't change the fact that it's the one risk that's worth taking every time the other one doesn't pan out. A franchise QB is a MUST in today's NFL. Starting with the Cowboys super team of the 90's, look at the caliber of QB that have won the Super Bowl in the past 20 years.
Hall of Fame
Troy Aikman (3) - 1992, 1993, 1995
Steve Young (1) - 1994
John Elway (2) - 1997, 1998
Future Hall of Fame
Brett Favre (1) - 1996
Tom Brady (3) - 2001, 2003, 2004
Peyton Manning (1) - 2006
Drew Brees (1) - 2009
Potential Hall of Fame
Kurt Warner (1) - 1999
Ben Roethlisberger (2) - 2005, 2008
Eli Manning (2) - 2007, 2011
Aaron Rodgers (1) - 2010
Non-Hall of Fame
Trent Dilfer (1) - 2000
Brad Johnson (1) - 2002
I don't know about you, but that list is striking to me. There's a legitimate chance that 18 of the past 20 Super Bowls have been won by Hall of Fame QBs and the two that didn't have one likely would rank in the Top 10 defenses of all time... not to mention it all took place before rules changes made passing superior.
Knowing that, if I'm an NFL GM, I ask myself 2 questions:
1) Do we have a potential stud QB on the roster? Doesn't look like we do.
2) Does the guy who we want to draft have the potential to be a stud QB? Based on his physical skills and intelligence/personality, I'd say the answer concerning RGIII is yes, he has that potential.
With that being the case, if I'm Heckert, I move up to 2 and get a QB who has the ability to be a stud in RGIII because it's ridiculously difficult to win it all without one. QB is THAT important that even if RGIII is a bit of a gamble, it's a gamble worthwhile because of the potential payoff.
We're... we're good?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 15,979 Likes: 83
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 15,979 Likes: 83 |
Would you trade the 4, and 22 picks for Aaron Rogers today, or Drew Brees today or even Matt Ryan today, sure, maybe, fine, your getting an NFL QB.
I don't think RG3 is going to be any good as any of them in the next year, or 2 years. Especially if on the Browns where he's gonna get mamed in the head by bad coaching .
All the talking heads, all of them have an investment in the Browns continuing to stink, I doubt any one of them wants to see the Browns succeed.
Theres 2 types of Qb's, pocket guys, and run around guys, the best run around guy I can remember is Steve Mcnair. Then Doug Floutie, Brady Quinn, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, and Troy Smith, and Vince Young.
If Barkley was in this draft, you maybe make the argument you trade 4 and 22 for Barkley, or Luck, or sure a proven commodity like a star in his prime, not Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, or even Chicago's own .
Woud I have traded 4 and 22 for Eli manning coming out of college, (shoot) YA I would have,, I would have traded 4 and 22 to draft him his sophmore year, he was a clear non bust.
RG3 is not a clear non bust.
The 22 pick took alot, ALOT, to get value. We fans have had to wait a YEAR for that 22 pick, which was the main value for moving out of #7 last year.
That 22 pick alread cost the Browns their 3 rd rounder last year or whatever it was to trade back up to secure Phil Taylor, because if they haddn't moved clear down to 28 they wouldn't have had to spend anything to get back to 22.
You can't just throw away the 22 pick. It's not the Browns fault that 2 of the better QB's in this draft returned to school, Landry Jones and Matt Barkley.
They won't make RG3 any better by their not being in the draft. He's still RG3 with all his faults, and compare him to any other QB in the NFL in about 6 months and he's not all that.
In 6 months, ... suppose you can somehow hang on to the 4 and 22 pick in the 2012 draft, and not use them , and then you go to trade them to any team for a QB in the league, are you gonna chose RG3 to trade them for? NO WAY.
Andrew Luck is not even a sure thing but they say he's the closest thing.
I don't like Luck like I liked Eli, but I SURE don't like RG3 that much at ALL.
Let some other poor team get saddled with his bad play for the next 5 years.
The bottom line is IF you trade the 22 pick away to Move up in the draft, then ..
You went from 7 to 28, so in a year you could go from 4 to 2... It's like having a pick about 15 overall and not using it on ANYBODY, it is completely Ludicris.
It would be like giving up golf to focus on tennis, selling all your clubs, then a year later giving up tennis to play golf and looking for a bunch of golf clubs.
Last edited by THROW LONG; 02/18/12 03:07 PM.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 16,195
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 16,195 |
Personally I'm not as opposed to drafting RG3 at #4 as I am moving up to get him. We have a somewhat rare opportunity to draft two firsts this year and a lot of holes to fill besides QB.
I'd rather sign Flynn and save both picks for our other needs, but he only knows our offense and has played QB in a couple of NFL games; instead of our savior (doing the tebow) who's not played in any NFL games and doesn't fit the offense we've installed.
One guy though isn't going to instantly make this team a contender, regardless of position. We need to maximize the ammunition we have in a combination of FA moves and the draft, grouping picks for one guy isn't maximizing anything.
#GMSTRONG
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445
Hall of Famer
|
|
OP
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,445 |
Quote:
I don't think RG3 is going to be any good as any of them in the next year, or 2 years. Especially if on the Browns where he's gonna get mamed in the head by bad coaching .
U a pessimist...
Quote:
All the talking heads, all of them have an investment in the Browns continuing to stink, I doubt any one of them wants to see the Browns succeed.
What the hell r u talking about?
Go Browns!!!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 Likes: 87
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 Likes: 87 |
Quote:
Quote:
Let's take it a step further shall we? These are all teams in the top 10 that have draqfted their so Called franchise QB in the first round. How's that working out for them?
2)St Louis- Bradford
3)Minnesota- Ponder
4)Cleveland- Couch/Quinn
5)Tamp Bay- Freeman
6)Washington-Campbell
7)Jacksonville-Leftwich/Gabbart
9)Carolina-Newton Year before took Clausen in 2nd
LMAO...Whateverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...
32) Giants---Manning
30) Frisco--Smith
29) Balt--Flacco
28) GB---Rogers
24) Pitt---Burger
23) Detroit---Stafford
22) Atlanta---Ryan
19) Chi---Cutler
18) SD---Rivers
So what's the point??????
The BEST shot at a Quality QB u can keep around 10+ years and WIN consistently with is happening HIGH in Round One...
It's a shame u brain can't wrap around that...Cause it's FACT...
32) Giants---Manning #1, 04
30) Frisco--Smith #1, 05
29) Balt--Flacco #18, 08
(2nd, QB)
28) GB---Rogers #24, 05
(2nd, QB)
24) Pitt---Burger #11, 04
(3rd, QB)
23) Detroit---Stafford #1, 09
22) Atlanta---Ryan #3, 08
(1st, QB)
19) Chi---Cutler #11, 06
(3rd, QB)
18) SD---Rivers #4, 04
(2nd, QB)
(Note '06' Bust);
Vince Young #3, Matt Leinart #10
(Note '04 Bust);
J. P. Losman #22
(Note)= Draft years in illustration above.
Bold= Top 10 selections.
'07' Clean sweep Bust ;
JaMarcus Russell #1
Brady Quinn #22
DND, I don't know if the above facts conclusively supports your argument here.
Your odds are naturally better the higher your selection, but as the facts clearly show ... is that in fact a .500 team still has a chance to hit on a QB in the first round (if they haven't already traded that option away).
Still others such as the Patriots (31), and the Bengals (21) got lucky after the first round.
Alex Smith took what 8 years to take the 9ers to his first playoffs.
Only 3 QB's from that list have won a SB(s) and of that list only Manning was a Top 10 selection.
This Draft won't make or break us (if) we don't find "the guy" (if we draft one or pass). It would sure be nice and long over due, but this draft is not the end all to end all.
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/FL_Dawg/Logo5_1.gif)
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,187 Likes: 209
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,187 Likes: 209 |
Quote:
Knowing that, if I'm an NFL GM, I ask myself 2 questions:
1) Do we have a potential stud QB on the roster? Doesn't look like we do.
2) Does the guy who we want to draft have the potential to be a stud QB? Based on his physical skills and intelligence/personality, I'd say the answer concerning RGIII is yes, he has that potential.
I don't like the phrasing of the question Does the guy who we want to draft have the potential to be a stud QB?" Because you can argue most guys have that potential. Even if it is one in a million "so your saying there's a chance" (Dumb and Dumber quote). Is he likely to... Good possibility of... etc would be better ways to ask that question.
It might seem like a small distinction but I think most people would agree that RGIII has the potential to be a franchise QB but if you ask them if he had a better than 50/50 shot at being a franchise Qb then the answer is less clear cut. Which is why there is so much debate about RGIII whereas if we had the 1 overall then there would be little debate that Luck is the obvious choice (you know some yahoo would still the pot suggesting that we take RGIII over Luck). Then the question would be what do we think those percentages are? 70/30? 30/70? What we think those percentage are determine if you take RGIII or not.
Don't blame the clown for acting like a clown.
Ask yourself why you keep going to the circus.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 32,666 Likes: 673
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 32,666 Likes: 673 |
I'd like to see this headline after day 1...
Cleveland Trades #4, #22, 2013 1st rd pick and 3rd rd pick to select QB Luck.
Colts Trade #4, #22 and 2013 4th rd pick to select RG3.
Your feelings and opinions do not add up to facts.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 42,413 Likes: 501
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 42,413 Likes: 501 |
Quote:
FYI...
RGIII has his Pro Day March 21st per HIM...
Does NFL Network cover Pro Days????????????????...I'd like to see this one...
Some other QB also his Pro Day that same day. Some guy named Luck. Who cares about him?
Anyway, if NFL Network isn't there live, which they probably will be, then the schools website (in this case Baylor) usually have some sort of web cam live feed of the workout.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,370
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,370 |
Here's what I don't get. Why does anyone think that RG3 won't be there at #4? Because the Redskins at #6 may be desirous of a QB in the draft and high on RG3? Who says that the Rams can be bought out of the #2 spot? I have no doubt that the Rams will be looking to get their franchise QB some OL help. Unless Kalil stinks up the joint at the combine or has some serious legal issues that give them pause to pass on him, I don't see the Rams giving up the #2 spot and losing him.
The only way that I see them trading out of the #2 spot is if Indy somehow falls in love with RG3 and Andrew Luck falls to them and they auction off the pick to the highest bidder. If Luck somehow drops to them, I could even imagine a scenario where they draft him and send Bradford packing his bags to one of the teams seeking a QB.
As for the Vikings, they have protection issues too but they won't get a chance to draft Kalil (unless the scenario where RG3 goes #1 comes to fruition) and they could very well take Claiborne at #3 if the Colts take Luck #1 and Kalil is gone to the Rams at #2.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 42,413 Likes: 501
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 42,413 Likes: 501 |
Quote:
Rams head coach Jeff Fisher told me the team is open to the possibility of trading the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. And he views the pick as a pivotal moment for the Rams franchise.
"There are going to be teams that have some interest in that pick," Fisher said. "What we do will define the future of this franchise moving forward. If we stay there who do we take, if we move down who do we take. What if we move down and come back up. That's going to define the future.
"Because I promise you this. We will not be picking second again. This is the last time we're picking second."
I like Fisher's confidence. I like how he threw it down, making it clear that he won't have a team as bad as recent Rams' teams.
Link
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,528 Likes: 6
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,528 Likes: 6 |
Quote:
What if we move down and come back up. That's going to define the future
I really like this scenario for the Rams. Skins give up 1st next year and say a 2nd or 3rd this year. Rams then trade up from 6 back to 4with the browns giving up a 2nd rounder and select Blackmon.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 6,331
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 6,331 |
Quote:
Quote:
What if we move down and come back up. That's going to define the future
I really like this scenario for the Rams. Skins give up 1st next year and say a 2nd or 3rd this year. Rams then trade up from 6 back to 4with the browns giving up a 2nd rounder and select Blackmon.
Sounds like a deal to me. Now I assume you think we'll get Tannehill. But I don't really want him, we could get someone like Claiborne or Richardson (depends on Hillis), Kendall Wright, a DE (2nd round), and a RT (2nd round).
That would really upgrade this team.
UCONN HUSKIES 2014 Champions of Basketball
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,528 Likes: 6
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 8,528 Likes: 6 |
I would take Claiborne over anyone not named Luck. Richardson and then Tannehill. I am higher on Martin and Kalil but we are set at LT.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,118 Likes: 134
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,118 Likes: 134 |
Quote:
If we had drafted Sanchez, We never would have brought in Jake Delhomme...
I can almost consider that a win...
So what?
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,488 Likes: 146
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,488 Likes: 146 |
NFL Draft: High Bust Rate With Top 10 Picks
April 18, 2011 12:21 pm
Do you wish your team had a top 10 pick in the draft this year? If you said yes, think again because you could very well be in for a major disappointment. After taking a look at the top 10 overall draft picks from 10 draft classes, it doesn’t appear to be all it’s cracked up to be.
They say it takes 3 years to give a fair assessment of a draft pick. With that being the case, the 2008 draft class just completed their 3rd year so I started with them and went back 10 years (draft classes from 1999 – 2008). What I wanted to find out was the hit and miss rate for top 10 picks with a secondary analysis to see which position had the highest bust rate.
At the end of the day, I wanted to see how beneficial it really is to have a top 10 draft slot. My findings were that if this was a scholastic test it would have received a big fat “F”! 10 draft classes of top 10 picks = 100 total players evaluated. Per my highly subjective analysis, I deemed that 43 of these players could be labeled as busts. So in exam terms that would equal a 57% grade, aka FAIL.
Opinions vary from person to person on whether or not a particular player should be labeled as a bust. Some people place very high expectations on a top 10 player because not only was he thought to be one of the best college players in the country, he was also getting paid a lot of money. If you’re being paid mega-money, people expect mega-results.
While that mindset has validity, it is not entirely the case for me. In my opinion, a player ultimately just needs to be a solid player and produce at a decent level for multiple years. I am not of the opinion that a top 10 pick has to be a perennial pro-bowler. If you draft a player in the top 10 and end up with a long term solid starting player…even if he doesn’t make the pro bowl…then you made a good choice.
When looking at the 100 players in those 10 drafts, I took the following into consideration to form my opinion:
Level of production
The hype that surrounded the player
Is the player a starter
How many years has he started and produced adequately
Did he switch teams (most teams retain their good players, especially top draft picks)
To a lesser extent, the general consensus from the fan base
Of course there are players who have been universally declared a bust, such as Jamarcus Russell, but there are many that are in the murky waters between bust and stud. For example, would you rate players like Reggie Bush, A.J. Hawk, or DeAngelo Hall as a bust given where they were drafted and the hype surrounding them? To me, those types of players aren’t exactly as easy to judge but I did my best to apply an unbiased analysis, albeit a completely personal opinion. Having said that, let’s break down these 10 draft classes with some details:
Position, total selections/number of busts, and ranked by highest BR (bust rate):
1. WR – 17/12 – 70% BR
2. QB – 15/9 - 60% BR
3. DE – 11/6 - 54% BR
4. TE – 2/1 - 50% BR
5. DT – 10/4 - 40% BR
6. RB – 11/4 - 36% BR
7-T. LB – 9/3 - 33% BR
7-T. CB – 9/3 - 33% BR
8. S – 5/1 - 20% BR
9. OL – 11/1 – 9% BR
Again, that breaks down to 57 hits and 43 misses for an overall 57% success rate for draft picks in the top 10. Also, it seems that certain positions are astoundingly over a 50% bust rate. Wide receivers had the most selections with 17 followed by quarterbacks with 15 selections. Out of the 17 WR’s, 12 turned out to be busts while 9 out of the 15 QB’s stunk up their stadiums. That is a 70% and 60% bust rate on those 2 positions respectively, which is an alarming rate of failure. The defensive end position comes bustin’ in at 3rd place with a 54% fail rate (6 out of 11). This is the main reason why a rookie wage scale is assured to be in place in the next CBA.
As you can see, selecting a WR in the top 10 is extremely risky. Maybe I’ve been listening to Andy Reid too long but I’m not sure I understand why that position had the most selections in the top 10…even beating out the most important position in all of sports, quarterback. I have to wonder if the reason why teams go for the star WR is for fan excitement rather than football reasons. Fans love the big play guys and offense sells tickets, right? But as Reid always says, games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage.
The rest of the positions with the most selections are more up Andy Reid’s alley with QB, DL, and OL. Offensive line also proved to be the least risky with only 1 bust out of 11. That’s why highly regarded offensive tackles are usually always considered the “safe pick” in a draft.
In the end, it doesn’t seem like having a top 10 pick in the draft is especially beneficial although every year there is a premium value placed on them in regards to trading. Maybe that is the real benefit…the possibility of trading the pick to acquire more picks in order to draft players just as good but would come without the price tag of a top 10 pick.
If I were an owner, and unless I need a franchise QB or a left tackle, I’d prefer not to be in a position where I’m stuck paying huge money to a player who has almost a 50% chance of failing in the NFL. But as a fan I think having a top 10 pick makes the draft very exciting although the reason why you have it in the first place is usually NOT very exciting (aka, your team must stink).
Here is the run down of players in the past 10 “gradable” drafts. I listed them by position and crossed out the ones I think are/were a bust. Take a look and tell me if you disagree, or place your vote in the poll. I’d be very interested in hearing why or why not you feel one of these players is or isn’t a bust.
QB – Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith
WR – Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn Jr., Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick, Plaxico Burress, Travis Taylor, Torry Holt, David Boston
DE – Chris Long, Derrick Harvey, Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Mario Williams, Kevin Williams, Julius Peppers, Justin Smith, Andre Carter, Jamal Reynolds, Courtney Brown
DT – Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Amobi Okoye, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims, John Henderson, Gerard Warren, Richard Seymour, Corey Simon
LB – Vernon Gholston, Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Terrell Suggs, LaVar Arrington, Brian Urlacher, Chris Claiborne
RB – Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams
CB – Pacman Jones, Antrel Rolle, Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Dunta Robinson, Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer, Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister
S – LaRon Landry, Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Sean Taylor, Roy Williams
OL – Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Levi Brown, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Robert Gallery, Jordan Gross, Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Leonard Davis, Chris Samuels
TE - Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow
web page
Home of the Free, Because of the Brave...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 12,065 Likes: 1
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 12,065 Likes: 1 |
Quote:
Quote:
If we had drafted Sanchez, We never would have brought in Jake Delhomme...
I can almost consider that a win...
So what?
It was a sarcastic comment, I don't ALWAYS remember to use purple font... Because that's somewhat ridiculous...
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,575 Likes: 37
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,575 Likes: 37 |
Mac's post has me thinking about our 2008 draft..
Ouchie. Umm.. grading our 2008 draft? Oh man..
The Cleveland Browns didn't have a draft pick until round four this year (having traded away their early picks in last year's moves to acquire Brady Quinn and others). Below are is the 2008 draft class:
•Beau Bell- Linebacker - UNLV 4th round - Spokane Shock Arena Football League - BUST
•Martin Rucker - Tight End - Missouri 4th round - Signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars off the Dallas Cowboys practice squad - BUST
•Ahtyba Rubin - Defensive Tackle - Iowa State 6th round - Starter, Solid contributor NOT A BUST
•Paul Hubbard - Wide receiver - Wisconsin 6th round - Free agent / out of football BUST
•Alex Hall - Defensive End - St. Augustine's (division II) 7th round - Traded to Eagles for Gocong and Sheldon, waived July 2010. Claimed by Giants then waived by Giants. Signed and waived by Cardinals. Waived by Giants, worked out for squealers then re-signed by NY Giants on December 15 after linebacker Clint Sintim was placed on injured reserve. Should be considered a bust for Cleveland but did bring Gocong and Brown to Cleveland as part of trade Call it what you want I guess.
4 busts, one starter.
SaintDawg™
Football, baseball, basketball, wine, women, walleye
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 Likes: 87
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 Likes: 87 |
It makes me think of one of the most profound things I have ever heard a GM say after that Draft. When asked about Beau Bell Oppie said that he really knew little about him. Yet he was our first selection in that draft.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 14,477 Likes: 162
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 14,477 Likes: 162 |
With our first pick coming in the 4th I'm not surprised that was a busted up draft year.... totally a forgetable draft that year... I didn't even watch.....
<><
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,459 Likes: 59
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,459 Likes: 59 |
Honestly, it's not a bad draft to turn 4,4,6,6, 7 into a starter -- and a very good one at that.
Last edited by Lyuokdea; 02/18/12 10:44 PM.
~Lyuokdea
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,575 Likes: 37
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,575 Likes: 37 |
Fair enough.
IF that had been 2 thru 6 I would have wanted at least 2 starters and hoped for 1 additional contributor. (special teams or something)
Last edited by SaintDawg; 02/18/12 10:58 PM.
SaintDawg™
Football, baseball, basketball, wine, women, walleye
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,187 Likes: 209
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,187 Likes: 209 |
Hard to know what to make of those numbers. They would be more meaningful if we knew what the "bust rates" were for other picks. That 57% success rate means something different if the success of picks 11-20 is 80% vs 57% vs 20%. What about the success rates of picks 21-32? Or the second round? This article is a good start to an article but incomplete.
Additionally, top ten picks tend to go to bad teams. Later picks in the 1st round go to better teams. Better teams are more likely to have stability at coaching resulting in the same system. The players enter an environment of winning. They get better coaching, they see players who work harder and are better at preparing for games so they pick up good habits rather than bad.
Don't blame the clown for acting like a clown.
Ask yourself why you keep going to the circus.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,227
Dawg Talker
|
|
Dawg Talker
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,227 |
This guy has a VERY loose definition of non-bust when it comes to some of these positions.
With just the OL alone, how doesn't he consider Gallery/Levi Brown/Leonard Davis busts? Gallery and Davis have both carved out decent careers for themselves but they both had to switch to guard (and Davis couldn't even play LG). Levi Brown can't play LT to save his life. If a guy goes Top 10 and isn't playing LT in the pros, that's a bust easy.
We're... we're good?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358 |
And now you see why I suggested a different font...
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 11,839 Likes: 11
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 11,839 Likes: 11 |
j/c..
if i remember correctly Alex Hall did pretty good here at one point.. I believe when Romeo was still the head chief... but when he got axed.. Hall got the boot.
He was definitely more of a 4-3 DE.. just like Wimbley should have been..
Beau Bell is actually doing pretty good in the other football league. He's still a bruiser.
Hubbard was just a track guy. Bad pick.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 12,065 Likes: 1
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 12,065 Likes: 1 |
I'm pretty sure changing his number from 96 to 51 ruined his career... It went straight downhill afterwards...
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,118 Likes: 134
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,118 Likes: 134 |
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
If we had drafted Sanchez, We never would have brought in Jake Delhomme...
I can almost consider that a win...
So what?
It was a sarcastic comment, I don't ALWAYS remember to use purple font... Because that's somewhat ridiculous...
Yeah,, I forgot the purple also with my So What? we are even...LOL
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,118 Likes: 134
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 42,118 Likes: 134 |
you have to go to the link to see exactly who he crossed off. for the most part, I agree with his Busts.. there are a couple I don't agree with...
Interesting bit of work by the writer..
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,761
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 5,761 |
a 7th rounder a bust?  Any 7th rounder who saw the field for 2-3 seasons is a successful pick and calling Rubin a "solid contributor"? Really? He is the heart of the D I'll still defend Savage for that draft class..it was a horrible class overall and the right one to trade away high picks for Rogers (who Crennel got 1 PB season out of...Mangini, as cold have been expected, not so much) and Corey Williams, who then was considered an up and coming DL...please take a look at the DL class of that draft We would have picked 22...here are the DL from there on picked in teh 1st/2nd: DE L.Jackson DE Balmer DE Merling DT Laws DE C.Campbell DE Groves DT J.Jones 1 good starter, 1 bad...the rest are only rotational players at best We had a HUGE DL need that offseason and Savage did the right thing to trade for 2 proven NFL vets instead of grabbing 1 or 2 of those guys listed above....and then he got Rubin in the 6th who might be the best DT out of that draft class....the way I look at it, it was a pretty good "haul" all things considered....the pick he missed and gott nooted for was whiffing on Quinn Savage wasn't good, he was barely AVG on draft day....but I'll always give him that he at least TRIED.....and many forget that our only 10 win season was under his watch too @ top 10 bust list Problem with this ist is that all those bust was from the old CBA....you throw way too many millions at spoiled kids and that's what happens...now that they get less some of them will work harder to get more of what they previously got handed...WR at no1 as primadonna-laden position really isn't surprising...QB and pass rushers are really hardest to evaluate thsu the high bust factor there
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 11,839 Likes: 11
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 11,839 Likes: 11 |
yea.. I can't hate on Savage either.. in my eyes he tried to put a decent team together. He drafted some pretty good guys, and brought in some pretty good free agents while he was here.
His downfall was he didn't always listen to the head coach wants/needs (according to reports of course).
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 7,189
Hall of Famer
|
|
Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 7,189 |
Quote:
Additionally, top ten picks tend to go to bad teams. Later picks in the 1st round go to better teams. Better teams are more likely to have stability at coaching resulting in the same system. The players enter an environment of winning. They get better coaching, they see players who work harder and are better at preparing for games so they pick up good habits rather than bad.
That is a great point. It explains my argument that there are so many variables that go into a player's success or failure that it cannot all be blamed on the player himself. I believe many good players have been ruined by the variables on bad teams.
And it also explains individual stats as an individual player on a better team would likely have better stats than his peer on a bad team.
Variables are the culprits that make definitive assessments on players, and even teams, so hard to evaluate as the result is unreliable at best.
And if you'd look at and quantify/rate each and every variable numerically: a QB lacks WR's, a RB lacks an OL, the WR's lack a QB, the defense lacks a pass rush or secondary, the coaching staff lacks consistency or quality coaching, the FO lacks a successful plan, etc, etc, you'd end up with so many numbers that even Lyuokdea couldn't sort it all out. 
These are the very things an NFL General Manager has to look at in deciding what his team needs and who, from Free Agency or the Draft can fill those positions successfully given the variables of his team.
This is a daunting task as everyone knows.
So a team drafts a RB high, he never really pans out and is considered a bust. But given a closer look the offense their passing game gets no respect so teams load up the box to stop the run, and they do. A closer inspection shows the OL is lacking talent to the point that they can't pass block and that's why their passing game is deficient. So what they need is OL but what they draft is RB. It's a set up for a RB to fail. Drafted by a team with a better OL that same player could end up in the HOF.
Teams have to be honest about who they are and the talent level at each position when heading into FA and the Draft. I honestly believe many teams fools themselves just like many fans do. Fans have the excuse that they really don't intimately know the physical/talent level or the idiosyncrasies of each player on the team. But GM's have all this information. Still, they make mistakes in judgement of even their own players.
The article posted on the board by Mike Lombardi gives four common mistakes teams make in judgement/evaluation. It's hard to imagine that teams make these mistakes because it seems more like the mistakes that fans would make. But make them they do and it's often to the severe detriment of their success.
It's harder still to intimately know a draft eligible player even given the vast amount of film on a guy and bringing them in for a look. They get to ask probing questions and pick and prod the player medically as well as interview everyone who knows them. But it's not until they are on the team working with their teammates that the GM really gets a strong take on who he is and what he can do.
It's a crap shoot that works out well if the player, on his own merit, works out and if the GM has rightly decerned his team needs successfully taking everything into account.
Heckert seems to get it. He is patient in his building as he has not gone spending crazy on short-term FA fixes. He's also had a pretty good track record with us in his drafts. Hopefully this continues and the organization does not fold to fan pressure and draft any player for the "hype" or "making the big newsworthy splash".
I am not a draftnik. I know very little about college players, even the best ones. But something happened last draft that has never happened in all my years. I didn't recognize the names of any of our draft picks! That tells me that Heckert, along with the scouts are being complete and comprehensive in their evaluations. Because the picks seem to be working out even though they were not household names who are always newsworthy. That says a lot to me.
I get all my draft information on here from you guys. Considering that none of you know your ass from a hole in the ground as all you have to go on is watching some games and reading draft sites with other people's opinions, still, I have learned a great deal from all of you about the draft. The considerations of talent evaluation, of trading picks, of different philosophies to name only a few.
So the draft is exciting for me not to see whom of you are right. But to see what our GM does and how it fits into the general consensus along with all the different draft philosophies. That gives me some indication beforehand as to what our team will do and how it will effect our roster and overall success.
I don't know my ass from a hole in the ground either concerning the draft or FA. But it sure is fun to watch and fun to read all the different things you guys are saying leading up to those huge events.
#gmstrong
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 38,562 Likes: 814
Legend
|
|
Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 38,562 Likes: 814 |
For a glass half full guy, you sure keep worrying about busted picks.  Mac, no doubt busted picks hurt a team. I just don't think you can draft taking that in to account. You rate them out. You see how they will fit in to your program. If all that checks out, you draft them. You never sit there and wonder what's going to happen if the guy doesn't pan out. If you don't think he is going to pan out, you don't take him. So if you are saying we shouldn't take him simply because he isn't good enough, cool. We all have opinions. If you are saying we shouldn't take him because if he busts it will set us back, then I think you are off base.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
|
|
|
DawgTalkers.net
Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Mayock Says Go Get RGIII...
|
|
![[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]](https://i.ibb.co/6WV79RV/Browns-Coach-Sig.png)