DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum A Look at Downfield Passing in 2011

I was reading this on another forum and asked the author(Mercury529) for permission to use it and his reason's for posting it. I thought it was laid out nice and offered a clear look at how Colt stacked up against the rest of the league. Thanks Merc!

So to better understand league-wide trends in downfield passing, I decided to take a look at the actual numbers in 2011. My research is available below. For the purposes of this study, I consider a downfield pass one that is thrown 21+ yards through the air.

The following charts look at some areas of downfield passing I think are important. The chart includes all 34 qualified starters from 2011. All yardage numbers in the header refer to yards the ball was thrown through the air.

NOTE: All stats were gathered using ESPN's splits. All numbers were crunched/charts were generated programatically to minimize the chance for errors. If you see something you think is an error, please PM me so I can look into it.

QB Attempts per Start (21+ yards)
Eli Manning 6.13
Tim Tebow 5.27
Cam Newton 5.06
Carson Palmer 5
Joe Flacco 4.88
Matt Moore 4.5
Philip Rivers 4.44
Matthew Stafford 4
Sam Bradford 4
Michael Vick 4
Tarvaris Jackson 4
Matt Hasselbeck 3.88
Drew Brees 3.81
Aaron Rodgers 3.8
Christian Ponder 3.8
John Skelton 3.71
Rex Grossman 3.69
Ben Roethlisberger 3.67
Andy Dalton 3.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick 3.38
Matt Cassel 3.33
Matt Schaub 3.3
Tony Romo 3.25
Jay Cutler 3.2
Mark Sanchez 3.13
Tom Brady 3
Matt Ryan 2.94
Curtis Painter 2.88
Colt McCoy 2.85
Alex Smith 2.25
Josh Freeman 2.13
Kevin Kolb 2.11
Blaine Gabbert 2.07
Kyle Orton 1

QB Completions per Start (21+ yards)
Eli Manning 2.31
Aaron Rodgers 2
Drew Brees 1.94
Cam Newton 1.81
Carson Palmer 1.78
Matt Moore 1.58
Andy Dalton 1.5
Sam Bradford 1.5
Tony Romo 1.5
Matthew Stafford 1.44
Philip Rivers 1.44
Jay Cutler 1.3
Tim Tebow 1.27
Michael Vick 1.23
Colt McCoy 1.15
Joe Flacco 1.13
Matt Hasselbeck 1.13
Matt Schaub 1.1
Ben Roethlisberger 1.07
Matt Cassel 1
John Skelton 1
Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.94
Tom Brady 0.94
Tarvaris Jackson 0.93
Rex Grossman 0.92
Mark Sanchez 0.88
Alex Smith 0.81
Kevin Kolb 0.78
Curtis Painter 0.75
Josh Freeman 0.73
Christian Ponder 0.7
Matt Ryan 0.69
Blaine Gabbert 0.5
Kyle Orton 0.5

QB Completion% (21+ yards)
Aaron Rodgers 52.6
Drew Brees 50.8
Kyle Orton 50
Tony Romo 46.2
Andy Dalton 42.9
Jay Cutler 40.6
Colt McCoy 40.5
Eli Manning 37.8
Sam Bradford 37.5
Kevin Kolb 36.8
Alex Smith 36.1
Matthew Stafford 35.9
Cam Newton 35.8
Carson Palmer 35.6
Matt Moore 35.2
Josh Freeman 34.4
Matt Schaub 33.3
Philip Rivers 32.4
Tom Brady 31.3
Michael Vick 30.8
Matt Cassel 30
Ben Roethlisberger 29.1
Matt Hasselbeck 29
Mark Sanchez 28
Ryan Fitzpatrick 27.8
John Skelton 26.9
Curtis Painter 26.1
Rex Grossman 25
Blaine Gabbert 24.1
Tim Tebow 24.1
Matt Ryan 23.4
Tarvaris Jackson 23.2
Joe Flacco 23.1
Christian Ponder 18.4

QB Interception% (21+ yards)
Tom Brady 0
Matt Schaub 0
Aaron Rodgers 1.8
Matt Ryan 2.1
Sam Bradford 2.5
Alex Smith 2.8
Matthew Stafford 3.1
Tim Tebow 3.4
Joe Flacco 3.8
Tony Romo 3.8
John Skelton 3.8
Matt Hasselbeck 4.8
Drew Brees 4.9
Cam Newton 4.9
Christian Ponder 5.3
Eli Manning 6.1
Josh Freeman 6.3
Jay Cutler 6.3
Matt Cassel 6.7
Blaine Gabbert 6.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick 7.4
Andy Dalton 8.9
Carson Palmer 8.9
Tarvaris Jackson 8.9
Michael Vick 9.6
Philip Rivers 9.9
Mark Sanchez 10
Colt McCoy 10.8
Ben Roethlisberger 10.9
Matt Moore 13
Curtis Painter 13
Kevin Kolb 15.8
Rex Grossman 20.8
Kyle Orton 25

QB % of Attempts that were 20 yards or less
Kyle Orton 94.8
Josh Freeman 94.2
Blaine Gabbert 92.9
Kevin Kolb 92.5
Tom Brady 92.1
Colt McCoy 91.9
Alex Smith 91.9
Matt Ryan 91.6
Mark Sanchez 90.8
Drew Brees 90.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick 90.5
John Skelton 90.5
Curtis Painter 90.5
Matthew Stafford 90.3
Tony Romo 90
Jay Cutler 89.8
Rex Grossman 89.5
Ben Roethlisberger 89.3
Andy Dalton 89.1
Matt Cassel 88.8
Sam Bradford 88.8
Matt Schaub 88.7
Aaron Rodgers 88.6
Matt Hasselbeck 88
Philip Rivers 87.8
Michael Vick 87.6
Tarvaris Jackson 87.6
Christian Ponder 86.9
Carson Palmer 86.2
Joe Flacco 85.6
Matt Moore 84.4
Cam Newton 84.3
Eli Manning 83.3
Tim Tebow 78.4


I had two main purposes with this post.

First of all, I wanted to present information most people do not have access to. It's hard to make informed opinions about how good a QB is in the deep passing game when you do not actually know how good the other starters in the league are. This let's people see the actual results.

Second of all, I wanted to generate some discussion about it. I think these numbers challenge a lot of the beliefs held by posters on this board such as:

Colt McCoy was inaccurate passing downfield

The reality is Colt was actually one of the most accurate passers in the league this year with regard to passes beyond 20 yards. He finished 7th in overall completion percentage out of 34 starters. You surely wouldn't guess that from the numerous comments made on these boards.

The Browns offense was hurt by an inability to complete downfield passes

The reality is with Colt at the helm, the Browns had the 15th highest number of completions per game on passes of 21+ yards. Considering the lack of established receiving talent on this team and an offensive system that de-emphasized deep passes, ranking 15th with a 2nd year QB seems pretty acceptable.

While I'd like to see us improve in this regard, the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Ravens, 49ers, and Patriots prove that hitting on deep passes is a luxury, not a necessity in this league. All had fewer completed passes of 21+ yards per game than the Browns. All made the playoffs. 3 out of the 4 teams represented in the Championship games fell into that category.

Colt should have been throwing the ball deep with more frequency

Colt was certainly near the bottom of the league on attempts of 21+ yards per game. One could argue that taking fewer attempts downfield, regardless of the result, hurt this team on passes within 20 yards. I think there is some merit to that argument. However, I think the numbers suggest that placing the blame on Colt is highly suspect.

Colt averaged 2.85 attempts per game of 21+ yards. The league median was 3.68 attempts per game, right near the Steelers total. Few, if anyone, would accuse Ben of having a weak arm. Few, if anyone, would accuse Ben of lacking aggressiveness on downfield passing. Few, if anyone, would accuse Ben of missing numerous open downfield opportunities. Few, if anyone, would accuse the Steelers of lacking a credible deep threat. And few, if anyone, would accuse the Steelers of running an offensive system that minimizes attempts downfield.

Yet, when all was said and done, Colt would only have 11 more passes downfield this year if he had thrown them with the regularity of Ben. I find it possible, if not probable, that our lack of a deep threat anywhere near the level of Wallace and an offensive system that was undoubtedly focused on short passes could have resulted in 11 fewer opportunities for Colt than Ben had. I am not saying Colt didn't miss open reads. I just don't think the numbers suggest that he misses open reads with greater regularity than other QBs in the league.

Colt throws too many interceptions on deep passes

I agree that Colt's interception numbers on deep passes are certainly bad. They are among the worst in the league. But, they are offset by how much better he is at protecting the ball inside of 20 yards than other QBs. If we made Colt the 6th most aggressive downfield passer with 4.5 attempts per game (a ridiculous number considering our lack of receiving talent), he would have attempted 21 more deep passes this year ((4.5 - 2.85) attempts/game * 13 games). At his 10.8% interception rate, you would expect him to throw 2 more picks on the year. That would give Colt 13 total interception this year on 463 attempts, or 2.81%.

He would have the 19th lowest interception rate in the league. That number isn't thrilling. But considering that would be the number for a second year QB with a ridiculous number of downfield passing attempts, being middle of the pack would certainly be acceptable. And if I am forced to choose between my QB throwing picks 21+ yards downfield or within 20 yards, I am going to go with 21+ yards downfield.

I'm gonna go hide in the corner until the fireworks die down....

Good job Loyal....

Loyal...job well done my fellow dawg...thank you for sharing.

Makes me wonder what McCoy might be able to produce if the Browns actually improved the supporting cast...such as WRs and OL.

I heard something yesterday, or maybe read it ...... about Alex Smith and the fact that he had only 5 INT last year. Anyway, it was something about how just having a low INT percentage doesn't mean a thing, except that the QB never takes shots down the field.

Colt McCoy falls into that category.

Any QB can hit a receiver who is wide open, and that's generally the kind of passes McCoy threw. He would wait, and wait, and wait till the receiver was so wide open that there was no way he could miss ..... and even then, like in the case of the Cribbs long non-TD pass, the pass took so ...... damned ...... long ..... to get there, that by the time it did, coverage had reacted and covered the receiver again. The pass was completed, but it should have been completed and a TD at the same time. Now not every situation was like that ... he had a nice deep pass to Moore for a TD that was rifled in decisively ..... but many of his longer passes were either way off target, or so late that the receiver had no opportunity to do anything after the catch.

Look at where McCoy is in attempts of 230+ yards/game. Who is he ahead of? Blaine Gabbert? Kyle Orton had 8 such passes in 4 games. (3 starts) so "1" is the wrong answer there. Alex Smith threw only very safe, wide open passes, and Kevin Kolb had 23 passes of 20+ yards in 9 games. That works out to 2.55, not 2.1.

Then we have Colt McCoy, who you have credited with 2.85 such passes per game. However, he had 26 such throws in 13 games, which would translate to 2.

I think I see the problem ..... I think that you added the 20+ and 40+ together, however, I checked once and 40+ are included in the 20+ number.

The bottom line is that McCoy is a caretaker type QB ....... the kind who gets you beat by "not getting you beat". He doesn't take smart chances down the field, and in fact, some of his INT are the dumbest throws imaginable.

I could go play QB and never throw an INT. I could just play it super safe, and only throw down the field at all when the receiver was wide open and waving his hands in the air. If I hit a guy or 2 on the right read, he might break it for 20+ yards now and again.

Look at the ultimate "throw short/run long QB in the game today, Tom Brady. He almost never throws anything over 20 yards in the air. According to his splits on ESPN, he only threw 50 passes of 20+ yards in the air last year, but he had 71 plays of 20+ yards. (and 14 of 40+) This was in a total of 611 attempts.

By comparison, and granted it's against one of the best in the game, but still ... McCoy had only 26 20+ yard plays in 463 attempts. (with 5 of those going 40+ yards)

No one will accuse the Patriots of having thrown huge dollars at their receivers, or of having drafted tons of receivers in the 1st round of any draft. The difference is that Brady puts a pass on his receiver, in position for that receiver to do something with the ball. He's not a mad bomber, but he takes his shots to loosen up the defense when they are there.With Brady such throws are immediate. With McCoy, they generally take a long time for him to decide to throw the ball.

Anyway ... you may want to rerun your numbers the correct way. You can check a guy like Mike Kafka if you like, he had only a few pass attempts, yet had a 40+ yarder. Check the play by play and you'll see what I mean about them having the 40+ in with the 20+.

ESPN Splits

Tom Brady passes thrown 21-30 yards.
-14/33, 476 yards, 42.4%, 14.42avg.,6TD 0int., 129.1 QBR
McCoy passes thrown 21-30 yards.
-10/18, 272 yards, 55.6%, 15.1 avg., 5TD 1int., 116.9 QBR

Tom Brady passes thrown 31-40 yards.
0-9
McCoy passes thrown 31-40yards.
4/17, 177 yards, 23.5%, 10.41 avg., 1TD 3 int. 50.5QBR

Tom Brady passes thrown 41+yards.
1/6, 46 yards, 16.7%, 7.67avg., 0TD 0int, 59 QBR
McCoy passes thrown 41+yards.
1/2, 52yards, 50%, 26avg, 0TD 0int, 95.8QBR

Which offense?
The "game manager" of his 1st few years?
The vertical attack after that?
or the short passing 2 TE of the past few years?
Y-town should have known better than to put Mccoy and Brady in the same sentence,hell the same universe,some apologist would take offense.

I even put this in ...

"By comparison, and granted it's against one of the best in the game,"

Of course, no one ever reads the whole damn thing ......

However,McCoy does compete against these guys ........ so he better be somewhere in the same universe.

I'm no astrology guy,but I think Pluto and Saturn are in the same universe.You wouldn't compare one against the other,would you?

Only if they played against each other in the same game, for the same stakes.

You sir,are a glutton for punishment.

A+ for you, Loyal. Not all stats are telling something this direct. Had he gone downfield more often, worse numbers might be produced. If we had adequate protection, I suspect they improve further to some degree. As I read down the categories, all I could remember were the unholy numbers of drops. We need to get better in this department. Great post!

I'm not gonna dive into yet another McCoy thread. All I'm going to say is that McCoy better be thanking his lucky fruitcakes that a fruitcake sent 38 first round draft picks, his mother's eternal soul, and two tickets to the first shuttle ride to the moon to the Rams for the right to take RG3, otherwise he'd be following Charlie Frye's footsteps right outa town.

He may have one more crack at this thing by sheer dumb luck. That's one more shot than the organization wanted him to have, so he better make the best of it.

It's year three. Time to put up or shut up.

Good post Loyal, or Mercury as the case may be!

It might be good ..... if it was at all accurate.

His numbers are wrong though.

The 20+ includes passes that also went 40+. You can't add them together.

If a guy threw 5 passes, he could have 5 that went 10+ and 5 that went 40+. You must be adding the 2 categories together so that a guy showing 5 plays of 20+ and 4 plays of 40+ would be credited with 9 big plays. That's not how they count them.

Aha, I see what you did there .......

It really makes no sense, but OK.

So your conclusion, according to your data, is that Colt McCoy is one of the better QBs in the NFL?

You can pick and choose stats all you want, but the eye doesn't lie. if you want me to believe that Colt McCoy is much better than Tom Brady ....... well,sorry, I'm not buying it.

I could add that your data shows that maybe we have the best WR corp in the league.

How about that?

OK, let's look at your stats in depth here ......

QB1

21+ yard attempts per start: 6.13
21+ yard completions per start: 2.31
21+ yard completion percentage: 37.8%
21+ INT percentage: 6.1%
QB% Less than 21 yards: 83.3%


QB2

21+ yard attempts per start: 2.85
21+ yard completions per start: 1.15
21+ yard completion percentage: 40.5%
21+ INT percentage: 10.8%
QB% Less than 21 yards: 91.9%


Which one do you want?

OK, I'll take QB 1 and win the Super Bowl. You can take QB2 and go 4-12.

Look, when a QB is so super, super, super careful with the ball that he never takes the slightest chance, and only throws a pass when the receiver is so wide open that I could probably hit him, then of course that QB is going to "look" a little batter on paper.

However, the guy who takes a few chances, who opens up the offense and puts the fear of God into the defense will have far more opportunities both underneath and over the top as the defense has to guess what he's going to do.

Look at how defenses played us last year. They stacked the box tight, and they played single on the outside. Colt McCoy could not .... no would not take any chance at all to make a play outside. he would look ... and look ... and look ....... we had guys like Josh Cribbs running 20 yards open waving his hands and by the time the ball finally got to him he was covered.

A QB who only throws a pass when someone is completely, totally, and 100% uncovered will complete passes, but very few of them. He also gives defenses no reason to back out of the box at all. They stay stacked up, in tight, and ready to tackle the short stuff ..... those passes that they will give up all day long quite happily.

The greatest QBs in NFL history are not the guys who play with fear, afraid to make a mistake, afraid to trust what they see, afraid to trust their teammates. They are the guys who see one on one coverage and put the ball on their receiver.

They are the guys who see a guy streaking with the safety sliding over, but probably not going to be able to make a play, and so he puts the ball on his receiver. They are the guys who will throw a ball up for their guy to make a play on, because they trust their receivers. They understand that they are part of a team, and that the receiver has to sometimes make a play too.

This is stuff that eludes McCoy, and frankly has eluded every QB we've had since Kosar, except for DA for a short period of time. They play the game like 4 yard passes at a 60% clip make for great QB play. Great QBs give their receivers a chance to make plays. They take a chance of making a mistake sometimes to give their guy a chance to make a great play. They don't play scared, afraid to make a mistake, afraid that what they see isn't really what they see, afraid that a receiver will drop a ball, and so on.

This is the single biggest reason that McCoy fails. He doesn't trust his guys. Even when they are wide open and waving their hands in the air, he still has to double and triple clutch, because he doesn't trust what he sees, he doesn't trust his receivers, and in the end, he probably doesn't trust his own ability to make a "hard" play.

No you wouldn't because that guy wouldn't have been on your team after his first year in the league. You would have ran him out of town and been stuck in QB Purgatory like we are here. That's only if you hold everyone to the same standards. Don't even consider that McCoy was a third round pick thrust into a bad situation and got dealt a bad hand. Take a look at those same number's after That QB1s first through third year in the league with much better conditions. int% of 21+ yards 26% and 15%. You would have drove him out of town saying he has no vision, can't read a defense, is careless, has bad accuracy, etc. Or maybe you would have just flat out overlooked that stuff considering your penchant for Top of the draft QB's. He was awful to put it nicely and they almost did run him out of town and even in his 4th year threw 23TD/20int. and had a 73.9 rating.

I don't know how much the 20 yard pass can be used as a measure.

Personally a better comparison would be 10 (or 15 perhaps) yards, and you may see more differences between the downfield throwers, and checkdown charlie's.

All I know is that if a QB only tosses it 5 yards, chances are that the player is tackled before the first down. At 15 yards, we are normally talking first downs.

I just thought this was interesting when I read it so I asked the original poster to use it to share.

Actually, no, I wouldn't.

I don't worry about a rookie or young QB making aggressive mistakes. Most great QBs have had to harness their abilities, and learn what they can, and cannot do.

Peyton Manning threw a lot of INTs in his rookie year. he was learning his way around the NFL, and that he couldn't get away with everything he could get away with in college. That wouldn't bother me. Manning learned that he couldn't hit every window, and he had to pull back slightly.

Ben Roethlisberger had the 2nd highest yards/attempt of his career as a rookie. He threw 17 TDs and 11 INTs. The next 2 years were kinda up and down, and he tried to harness the arm and attitude. (on the field anyway) He is throwing fewer INTs now, and he also throws more passes for big plays.

Matthew Stafford was finally healthy this year, and he doesn't play cautious football.

Tom Brady plays a little differently. he doesn't throw deep a lot, but he finds receivers open for big plays. He gets a lot of big plays out of limited WRs too.

Cam Newton threw 21 TDs, but also 17 INTs. He attacked the field though. He threw 65 passes that were 20+ yards. I am willing to bet that he will learn to harness his arm, and not make some of those passes that were unwise in the NFL. He'll learn those things. I think he's got a great future.

I then look at guys like Colt McCoy, Kevin Kolb, Tavaris Jackson, and guys like this. They play the game in this over-cautious manner where they never let a guy make a play for them at all. They never trust their guys to do their jobs. If they don't see an absolutely open receiver, then they shy away from the throw.

Look at Alex Smith. He had what most Colt McCoy supporters would consider to be a great year if McCoy put up the same numbers. And he did have a decent year. He completed 61% of his passes. He threw 17 TDs and only 5 INTs. However, they didn't ask him to throw very much. They handled him with kid gloves. I bet he probably left 10-12 TD passes on the field by being too cautious.

His 17 TD passes ranked 19th in the NFL. There were 4 QBs who threw more than twice as many TD passes as he did. Every one of those QBs threw more INTs than he did. They put up points, and helped their teams win. Smith just kinda went along for the ride. That's why a guy who went to the NFC Championship is still looking for a job.

Look, I actually had hope for McCoy last year. He threw the ball down the field. He attacked. He threw some INTs, but for the most part, he was trying to make plays. Last year Colt mcCoy threw 222 passes. He had 23 passes of 20+ yards. This year he had 26 pass plays of 20+ yards ...... but it took 463 pass attempts. That means in more than twice the pass attempts he had only 3 more passing big plays.

That's why I'm down on him. He's not playing QB this year. He's playing long handoff.

I focus on where Colt fell on the 1st and 5th of those lists.

edited, I meant 5th list, Colt is listed 6th from the bottom in attempts over 20 yards

and 6th from the top in attempts less than 20 yards.

Agreed....Nice Post !....IF we actually had a few reliable WRs who would catch balls that hit them in their hands , McCoy would have done significantly better....JMHO.

None of them compare to Uranus.

Sadly, our QB play does compare to Uranus, and not too favorably.