Pick # 1 Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford Pick # 2 Skins (from Rams) – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor Pick # 3 Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC Pick # 4 Browns – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU Pick # 5 Bucs – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama Pick # 6 Rams (from Redskins) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State Pick # 7 Jaguars – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame Pick # 8 Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M Pick # 9 Panthers –Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina Pick # 10 Bears (from Bills) – Luke Kuechly, LB, BC Pick # 11 Chiefs – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State Pick # 12 Seahawks – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford Pick # 13 Rams (from Cardinals) – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Rams traded #33+#39+#65 for #13+#80....goes to show that many people don't like the value in the middle/end of the 1st as this is "only" a "by the chart trade"
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Pick # 1 Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford Pick # 2 Skins (from Rams) – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor Pick # 3 Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC Pick # 4 Browns – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU Pick # 5 Bucs – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama Pick # 6 Rams (from Redskins) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State Pick # 7 Jaguars – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame Pick # 8 Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M Pick # 9 Panthers –Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina Pick # 10 Bears (from Bills) – Luke Kuechly, LB, BC Pick # 11 Chiefs – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State Pick # 12 Seahawks – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford Pick # 13 Rams (from Cardinals) – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU Pick # 14 Cowboys – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama Pick # 15 Eagles – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama Pick # 16 Jets – Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina Pick # 17 Bengals (from Raiders) – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Still on the board and players I'm considering: OT Reiff, OT Martin, WR Wright, WR Sanu, RB Martin, DE Curry, S Barron, QB Weeden...torn on OT/G Glenn and DE Mercilus....not a fan of DE Perry, DT Poe
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
I would target Kendall Wright or Mercilus with #22.
At #37 take an explosive Rb. I like Lamar Miller myself, you obviously prefer Martin. Wilson would be an option there as well. We will definitely be able to draft one of them and likely have to choose between 2 if not all 3 of them. You can see what draft pick compensation it would take to pry Tate from Houston. I would give a 3rd and 6th. Maybe a 3rd and 5th depending on what out options are at 37.
You want to get a RT. So do I. I think we can get a starting caliber RT in round 3 for sure. Possibly round 4 but I would rather be aggressive and take one in round 3 than take the risk that we miss out. If we trade the 3rd round pick then I would package some mid/late round pick to move back up into the 3rd to make sure that we get one of the RT's that we are targeting.
Am I perfect? No Am I trying to be a better person? Also no
Problem I have with Wright and Mercilus is that they're 1 dimensional players...very good ones at that, but still 1 dimensional...Mercilus, if put in day 1 would be a liability against the run and also is reportedly still very raw in his pass rushing techniques....I also don't like 1 year wonder DEs as many of them either busted or crushed in their 2nd season...I like both Curry and Bequette over Mercilus as they play the run better and have produced multiple seasons
Wright has done most of his damage from the slot and wasn't very effective on the outside...he does have Wallace and S.Smith upside but those guys were drafted after the top 50 for a reason because for every one of them there are numerous busts...WR is too deep, both outside and at the slot, to gamble on Wright imho
RT otoh, we need a day 1 ready guy...and outside Riley and Martin I only think Schwartz can step in day 1 (though I think with some growing pains too) from the guys after pick 50...I never envisioned that even 1 of them would fall to 22, so I already had Schwartz in mind with the 3rd...
I really like Curry, but I can't go defense again and DE isn't the most urgent need after this FA...I also love both RB Martin and WR Sanu but they do not represent very good value here
San Diego picked S Barron at 18, so 3 picks left with the Bills, Titans and Bengals....I considered an uptrade to the Titans but I don't think Bengals will go OL with Whitworth, A.Smith and re-signed Collins on their OT depth chart..so it looks like I will get 1 of Reiff or Martin for RT (I fully expect the Bills to take Reiff)...and both are of the plug in day 1 and leave them there 10 years variety
So, it's OT Martin or trade down for me at this point (some value left with probably Poe, Wright etc)...we really need another top 75 pick to adress all day 1 needs (WR, RB, QB, RT)...hmm, tough decision.....my pick is otc in 7 hours
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
I understand the inclination to pass on Wright. There is a lot of Wr depth in this draft.
Mercilus would pair up nicely with the run stopping FA DE's that we signed, until he matures and develops into a full time DE. If you are that high on Curry then wait. There is a good chance that we can get one of those guys at #37.
I cannot argue against Martin. Though I disagree with your assessment of RT's. I think that there are 3 or 4 more that could easily start day 1.
Am I perfect? No Am I trying to be a better person? Also no
Martin at 22 would be a steal!!! If he is there we BETTER get him.
I also really like Curry.. If we get Blackmon at 4 and Martin at 22 I'd like to possibly go defense there at 37. With Rucker signing, I've been looking more at olb additions. Ronnel Lewis could be a good addition.
I picked OT Martin...not really enamoured with the pick, but since our QB will be either McCoy or a rook, we need a day 1 ready RT and this draft (or any) doesn't have many that can step in day 1 and play consistently...Martin would have been picked by the Lions right after me btw
Consideration list for pick #37: QB Weeden, RB Martin, WR Sanu, DE Curry, WR Hill, OLB McClellin....how would you list them? and what would your personal Top5 look like for this pick?
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Who are your mid round WRs? I like a ton of WR too...but a closer look at them shows that not many are left that project well to play on the outside in the NFL...Sanu, Hill...after that I see M.Jones (and he's not that physical too) and maybe Criner...Toon and McNutt are outside guys but lower tier than Sanu/Hill imho and there are the 2 wildcards Jeffery and D.Jones, but both are lazy against press...the rest: Adams, AJ Jenkins, J.Wright, Broyles, Hilton are all slot WR with maybe no2 upside down the road but they would all be eaten up by press CB play on day 1
Sanu has some Hakeem Nicks, Greg Little to him as he is physical and has the mental part down too....if I was strictly going BPA I would pick DE Curry as has aced all of my personal "tests": 1. own eye/impression, 2. consistent production and 3. good offseason (SR Bowl week, workouts)
then again, Sanu and Weeden passed those 3 too...I gues that's wh they are on my consideration list
FYI, Givens, Randle, Posey and Quick are all off my board completely for different reasons
I really like Martin...he was a great mid round value 2 months ago, now that everyone has caught up on him he's still good but I still don't like the RB value this early...I might punt RB all together in this draft as there are still plenty of FA stop gap options available (Addai, Grant, Benson) and I really think that there will be great value in rounds 3 to 5 at RB as this position really is saturated around the league (Tolbert and Jacobs signing for no3 jobs is proof for that)
I'd really like to somehow nab 2 of those 6 guys...so the question becomes: who of those is most likely to fall past pick 50, so that I can trade back up?
edit: 1st pick in the 2nd round by the Cards (trade with STL) was WR Randle
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Looks like the CB position will be great for a long time and the oline should be one of the best out there in a short time.
ranking just the players you list.IMO:
WR Hill - I might be blinded by his combine numbers. WR Sanu- Need a WR deperately. RB Martin- Probably the safest pick OLB McClellin. DE Curry. QB Weeden- I think this would be a reach.
My list : WR Jeffery, WR Hill, WR Sanu, OLB Z. Brown, RB Martin.
I agree with the Sanu / Nicks comparison though Sanu doesn't quite have Nicks hands (Hakeem Nicks might have the best hands since Kevin Johnson - he just catches everything).
I'd be worried about having Little and Hill as our 2 primary WRs (2 guys who were not route-running guys in the WCO?). I'm worried Hill will have the same issues Little did when he had to focus more on those routes (more focus on routes led to less focus on catching the ball IMO). Sanu already is more natural in the route-running.
Of the later round WRs, I think Criner can handle the outside.
I would go Weeden .... we desperately need help at the position, at the very least in case McCoy struggles again. I just don't see reasonable targets later in the draft who might be able to step in this coming year and play.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
I don't really think there's a realistic #1 WR out there for our offense after Blackmon and possibly Floyd and possibly K. Wright. Only guy I'd consider for that role would be Greg Childs. He's got enough speed, he's got toughness, big hands.
Personally, I like Jenkins as he has elite change of direction ability and quickness. I get your concern about the jam, but i think he's quick enough to avoid the jam at the line. I think he can be a very productive receiver out wide. There's no question to me that he can get open way more than anyone we've got on the team now.
I like Criner as a solid all-around receiver with a good catch radius. However, not an elite target. A "#2" guy again.
I am starting to cool off on McNutt a little... he was able to produce all through college but I am concerned about his ability to separate. Dennard completely ate his lunch this year. I like his toughness, though. That's something I think most of the receivers outside those top 3 guys lack.
Toon and M. Jones... maybe if we were Buffalo I'd like them better, but I don't like them for us. Posts, corners, go routes. Deep stop routes. Things where they can get isolated deep I like from them, but not so much getting free at the LOS. Not hard cuts in the short and intermediate routes. I don't like Randle or Quick, either. I don't like Hilton as much as most people.
J. Wright and D. Wylie I think can be very productive in the slot. Broyles should be a great value, I think it's kind of crazy how far he's fallen off of one injury.
I really need to watch some video on Sanu. I've been pretty quiet about him because I just haven't seen him play.
Jeffrey I've seen a lot of and still don't know what to make of him. I see him as an improved version of Toon and M. Jones. Probably be great for the Pats or Chargers. Not so sure how he'd fit here. He's really a guy I'm most torn on in this whole draft.
Dwight Jones looked pretty good against Hosley. I might try to track down some more stuff on him, but it's tough to get good videos of receivers.
If we were picking up a 7th round receiver, I'd probably kick the tires on Jermaine Kearse.
The only game I saw Eric Page play was the game where he scored 5 TDs, so I'm not even going to comment on him.
Thanks for this CS, great post and exactly what I was looking for when I opened this thread...still torn betweem Weeden-Sanu-Curry-Martin...Hill just got picked by the Colts
I also like AJ Jenkins and think that of all speedsters I listed he has the best shot at developing on the outside..but lately I've been reading some stuff about him clashing with his coach, showboating, inconsistent play etc (quick look at his per game stats confirm that issue)
They way I look at this...there still are some WR and RB options and I even have 2 other mid round DEs I'm really high on (Crawford and Bequette) but there's only 1 QB left that I think can upgrade the position...from a pure position scarcity argument I should go Weeden...my BPA is Curry and I like Sanu/Martin...this is a strange draft as it's very hard to predict who the teams like and who could fall from that group...I'd really like to draft 2 of those 4 and think Heckert will trade back into the 2nd like he did 2 years ago for Hardesty...last year he had ATL's late 2nd rounder...he values an extra pick in that 50-60 range and likes to pick up a falling prospect he had a much higher grade on...and so do I, particularly in this class
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Which player would impact the team more IYO ...... a strong WR, or a strong QB?
I would like Weeden at 37 ..... mainly because he could have a chance to show what he can do ...... and if he shows promise, we have a steal ..... but if he doesn't we haven't massively overdrafted on position alone. (although 37 would still be somewhat of an overdraft)
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
I think if there's not a prospect you're really set on and you think Weedon is an answer at QB you have to take him. Especially if you don't see any other QBs that fit into that potential-QB category. Not saying I agree with the pick, but in general if that's how you view what's available.
I think the value at #37 is at the RB position. If we don't go Richardson in the 1st (which you didn't) I would look for us to grab a Rb here. Personally I like Lamar Miller out of Miami but if you like the Boise St guy or the Va Tech guy it's pota-toe/pota-ta. I think that if you do not get a Rb here then you don't get one this draft who will come in and challenge for a starter role. Wr on the other hand has so much depth that you will likely get some similarly talented players as you would here in the next round maybe even the next two.
Am I perfect? No Am I trying to be a better person? Also no
I picked Weeden...this is probably the 1st and last time I had the same Top 5 with back to back picks in the top 50 and didn't take my personal BPAs BOTH times, but I think QB and RT are too huge a need and there aren't many day 1 ready prospects later in the draft as there are at RB, WR and even DE...if 1 of Martin, Sanu, Curry or McClellin makes it past pick 50 I will trade picks 67+100 to move up
like you I am a Weeden fan. If we draft him with one of our 1st 3 picks we should have the plan of giving him a legitimate shot at winning the starting Qb job.
I agree that the Wr talent is deep. Not sure that the Rb's won't drop off.
I would have sought a RT in round 3. But no problem with Martin.
Am I perfect? No Am I trying to be a better person? Also no
I really like Cyrus Gray or Turbin in the 4th and I'm sure 1 of them will fall to me...Martin, Wilson and Miller are already dropping simply because most RB depth charts are already set and GMs (real or armchair) are trying to fill other needs 1st
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Pick # 33 Cardinals (from Rams) - Rueben Randle, WR, LSU Pick # 34 Colts – Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech Pick # 35 Vikings - Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama Pick # 36 Bucs - Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina Pick # 37 Browns - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State Pick # 38 Jaguars - Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska Pick # 39 Cardinals (from Redskins via Rams) - Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State Pick # 40 Panthers - Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson Pick # 41 Bills - Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina Pick # 42 Dolphins - Doug Martin, RB, Boise State Pick # 43 Seahawks – Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
Really surprised Dolphins took a RB over a WR or DE....next up are Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, Jets, Pats, Chargers, Bills (pick 50), Eagles, Titans, Bengals, Lions, Falcons....I will start offering picks 67 and 100 at pick 50 if 1 of Sanu/Curry (they've been my BPA's since pick 22 lol) makes it there...if only 1 is left by the time the Bengals pick (drafted CB Gilmore and G Glenn) I will probably up the price and throw in another 5th as they need both a WR and DE
From nfldraftscout's list the highest specs not yet picked: #23 DT Worthy, #37 G Zeitler, #38 RB Wilson, #42 RB Miller, #43 CB Dennard...I think it's safe to say that many participants use that list as their primary source
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Packers traded up for Curry (stupidly envisioning him as a OLB, which he is not imho, he's a 4-3 DE only)...I offered the Chargers picks 100 and 160 to swap 49 and 67, they denied...trying again with the Bills at 50 (from 1st round trade with Bears)....RBs dropping like crazy as I suspected, though I think 1 of Wilson/Miller will come off with the Bengals pick
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
With the draft you ran, I would be really happy if you would have taken Richardson at 4.
Richardson, Martin, Weeden, and Sanu is a complete offensive rebuild in a single year. I think that Richardson would be a huge safety net, either for McCoy, or for a rookie QB.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
Short term Richardson would be an upgrade, yes...not so sure long term though but in hindsight Richardson would be much closer to Claiborne, but I never thought I could get all 3 of Martin/Weeden/Sanu
I will go BPA from here on out but will try to add a RB, a speed/slot WR, OLB, OL depth and maybe a S prospect with the remaining 7 picks (2 of them are only valuable though, the other 5 are #200+ overall)
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
I like the Martin/Weeden/Sanu picks, and would love to see that really happen ..... with the Browns trading down to 6 for an extra 2nd, and taking Richardson, then using that extra 2nd for Sanu.
I think that's entirely possible too .... although Claiborne reportedly pulling a 4 on the Wonderlic doesn't help.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
Pick # 64 Colts – Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse Pick # 65 49ers (from Rams via Cardinals) - Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State Pick # 66 Vikings - Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa Pick # 67 Titans (from Browns) - Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt Pick # 68 Bucs - Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia Pick # 69 Redskins - Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State Pick # 70 Jaguars - Cam Johnson, DE, Virginia Pick # 71 Bills - Mychal Kendricks, LB, California Pick # 72 Dolphins - Mitchell Schwartz, OG/T, California Pick # 73 Dolphins (from Carolina via Chicago) - Billy Winn, DE, Boise State Pick # 74 Chiefs - Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State Pick # 75 Seahawks – Sean Spence, OLB, Miami
Still over 40 picks to go till I'm otc again...will go strictly BPA but think that RB (Turbin, Gray, Pierce) or speed WR (Jenkins, Wright, Broyles, Hilton) will represent the best value but will consider DE too esp. if 1 of Crawford (Boise St.) or Bequette make it there
#gmstrong
"Players come along at different points in time" - Ray Farmer
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
Lol I was at that draft. It was the last pick of a long day one. The shock in the room was audible, and explained the smirk on the face of the guy reading off the picks in the third round. It was a compensatory pick for the broncos and sent us all out of radio city buzzing.
Man, i'd love to be at the draft again this year. Our first child is due a week later though, so the timing doesn't allow it.
Quote: The game v. Arizona is what gave me the impressions he goes for the positioning rather than out-jumping... see the two fade route TDs.
He goes over the middle a lot, but also can get open on deeper routes.
Here's the full Blackmon reel against Stanford. He breaks a lot of tackles.
Here's another one... once again walling off the defender on the fades. Really terrible Braylon-esque jump and drop at 1:15. Seems all his drops are when he's wide open for a TD. Then he makes another one of his signature slant routes where he shakes the safety and runs into the end zone.
Thanks for the awesome videos!
Do you know who else looked really good in the first video? Weeden. That TD throw to the back right corner of the end zone was killer good. He was consistently hitting Blackmon in stride.
I've been saying I really think this is the QB to draft. Kurt Warner wasn't ready to start in the NFL either until he was 28 in 1999. The guy didn't retire until 2010. Other late arrivals with long careers after include Joe Theisman, Jeff Garcia and Warren Moon so I'm trying to keep that in mind.
Think about this folks. There's already a well established chemistry and continuity working between Weeden and Blackmon. We could snag Blackmon at #4 and Weeden in one of our next 2 picks. Those of you that can't stand another day of Colt McCoy should really consider how this already existing pitch and catch tandem could give Weeden an upper hand over McCoy in the very first camp. Something to consider.
As for the drops, they pretty much happen with everyone. All any New England fan remembers about their Superbowl is the pass Welker dropped. Speaking of which, I found some big surprises in 2010 regarding what players had the highest volumes of drops. Wes Welker had 14 drops, Brandon Marshall had 13, Steve Johnson had 13, Pierre Garcon had 13, DeSean Jackson had 12, Mike Wallace had 11, Jordy Nelson had 11, Miles Austin had 11, Mike Williams TB had 11, Steve Smith Car had 10. I didn't find it on an approved website so if you don't trust Flugel just Google. The main thing is that even productive WRs have a tendency to drop passes.
David doesn't beat Goliath without an accurate slingshot...
Quote: Many of you know that I mock the Browns FO in a private 32 GM mock that just started and ends right before the 1st round in April starts...every pick has a 4hour window (except "night" picks, they have 12) in the 1st round then less from the 2nd round on etc
Colts just picked Luck..yeah I know, shocker
My pick is otc in 16hours...in 20h I have to select and I've never been so torn on not only WHO to pick, but also WHAT to do...trade down? If so how much and for what return?
Tannehill, Richardson, Blackmon and Claiborne are the names....right now it's a battle between Tannehill and Claiborne for me...Richardson is kind of out when he had knee surgery...I know it's "minor" but he got his knee sliced open and he's a RB...just today Barber called it a career after only 7 seasons, only 4-5 of them as a workhorse...I just don't see the value, sorry Richardson fans
Feel free to act as my "scouts" and criticize and dispute my selections, thoughts and moves/non moves ...I will update the Mock regularly when picks are in
Pick # 1 Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Believe it or not, I think you're doing a great job with your mock draft so far. I appreciate you sharing it. Your point about Richardson is a valid concern.
I think we can land a RB like Chris Polk in round 3 with good hands and he weighs about 225. We can land some lighter guys later like Isaiah Pead or Cyrus Gray but I'm not sure their frames would give us every down use. I'm sure there's better ideas than that though.
Last edited by Ottomatic Flugel; 04/08/1210:56 AM.
David doesn't beat Goliath without an accurate slingshot...
More targets = more opportunities and that includes opportunities for drops.
Btw I have been on the Weeden to Blackmon bus to Cleveland for some time now. In between we need to draft a RT.
If Colt pans out at QB this year, then all the better.
If he doesn't, then we have another option next season and one who will not be a rookie and will be more ready to help us over next years said rookie QB.
Weeden to Blackmon sounded great, right up until Blackmon said he hoped he didn't get drafted by the Browns. Ever since then, I hope the Browns don't want him either. There are other receivers.
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