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http://www.fieldgulls.com/2011/9/22/2440...nning-tom-bradyNFL QB Draft History: 2000-2011 Observations from the last 12 NFL Drafts in Regards to QBs: In 9 of the last 12 years a QB has been taken 1st overall. The years where they weren't were 2000, 2006 and 2008. 75% of the time a QB goes #1. FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD When considering the 1st QB taken off the board: 8 of the last 12 have "worked out" (subjective yes, but in my view) - (67%). The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%). There is nothing 100% in this business. 67-75% is the closest you will ever get to a sure thing. SECOND QB OFF THE BOARD When considering the 2nd QB taken off the board: 6 of 12 have worked out and if we give Locker the benefit of the doubt- that is 7 of 12 or 58%. Not bad. The one's that didn't pan were: Giovanni Carmazzi 2000, Joey Harrington 2002, Matt Leinart 2006, Brady Quinn 2007 and Tim Tebow 2010. THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot. The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%. The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%. FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD Yes to Rex Grossman? Uh...ok. Yes to Colt McCoy? Chad Henne? There is not a definite "good" NFL starter that was the 4th QB off the board in the last 12 years! The for sure No group? Tee Martin, Matt Tuiasosopo, Josh Mccown, JP Losman, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, John Beck, Pat White. Let's just be nice and say that Henne, Grossman, Mccoy and Ponder are not busts. 4 of 12 here. 33%. Eeks. FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%. The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton. Star-divide So in review- here are the rough numbers depending on how you classify the draft picks working out in terms of being a quality NFL Starting QB: 1st QB off the board: 67-75% success rate 2nd QB off the board: 50-58% success rate 3rd QB off the board: 42-50% success rate 4th QB off the board: 16-33% success rate 5th QB off the board: 25-33% success rate See a pattern here? If the Seahawks would have drafted a QB in 2011, he would have been the 5th QB off the board barring a trade up. I know every year is different and you can't go make calls based on history, but it is interesting to note. OTHER TIDBITS --Of the 15 second round QBs drafted in the last 12 years, only one is a legit star: Drew Brees, and only 4 more are starters in the NFL (Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Andy Dalton). Pretty low success rate in the 2nd round. --If the Draft were held today, Brees would have been drafted in Round 1. In 2001 there were only 31 picks in the 1st Round and he was pick 32. --There are nine Starting Quarterbacks (28%) in the NFL that were not drafted in Rounds 1 or 2: Matt Hasselbeck - Rd 6 Tom Brady - Rd 6 Tony Romo- Undrafted Matt Schaub - Rd 3 Luke Mccown - Rd 4 Kyle Orton - Rd 4 Matt Cassel - Rd 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rd 7 Colt Mccoy - Rd 3 -- There are five NFL Starters that were drafted in 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Luke Mccown). -- There are six NFL Starters that were drafted in 2005- most of any year (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick) -- Tarvaris Jackson was the 5th QB off the board in 2006 and Charlie Whitehurst was the 6th QB off the board. -- In three of the last twelve years, four QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2003, 2004 and 2011. -- In four of the last twelve years, three QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009. -- 18 of 32 NFL Starters were 1st rd Draft Picks- or 56%. -- There have been 32 QBs drafted in Round 1 in the last 12 years for an average of 2.67 per year.
Meh.
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Meh.
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I was mocking someone who had previously mocked someone else for making that same exact point.
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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that's a lot of mocking going on...
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That is a ridiculous point.
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Interesting article. Goes to show you, QBs are hard to find and there arent enough good ones to go around.
"The medium for the bad news was ESPN, which figured. The network represents much of what is loud, obnoxious and empty in sports today."
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Not killing the messenger, just found this interesting...
They are saying Mark Sanchez worked out and Alex Smith didn't...hmmm.
Sanchez has 47 games under his belt, Smith 70 - a few quick stats (to be fair, I didn't look at everything):
Completion Rate
Smith 58%
Sanchez 55.3%
TD:INT ratio
Smith: 1.17
Sanchez 1.07
our favorite stat , the QB Rating
Smith: 76.4
Sanchez: 73.2
Fumbles & Fumbles Lost
Call it even when looking at a per game average
Stats are pretty similar to have the one with the lower numbers considered "worked out" and the one with the slightly higher one not "worked out"...
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Well Mark has been to 2 AFC championship games in his first 2 years with a good team and Smith only has been to 1 with a crappy team building into his 6th. Heck Rodgers sat for 3 years yet won a SB to bad he had that guy Farve in his way. 
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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I'd argue that Smith could have taken those Jets teams to the AFC title game, and possibly done more than Sanchez did (And by more, I don't mean throw more than 6 INTs in one game)
And on the flip side of that, Do we really think Sanchez could have done any better with the situation Smith was put into?
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Guess i should have used purple but what you said was exactly my point and is why I added in Rodgers. 
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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Gotcha
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Quote:
Not killing the messenger, just found this interesting...
They are saying Mark Sanchez worked out and Alex Smith didn't...hmmm.
Sanchez has 47 games under his belt, Smith 70 - a few quick stats (to be fair, I didn't look at everything):
Completion Rate
Smith 58%
Sanchez 55.3%
TD:INT ratio
Smith: 1.17
Sanchez 1.07
our favorite stat , the QB Rating
Smith: 76.4
Sanchez: 73.2
Fumbles & Fumbles Lost
Call it even when looking at a per game average
Stats are pretty similar to have the one with the lower numbers considered "worked out" and the one with the slightly higher one not "worked out"...
this was written in sept of 2011 I'm sure the writer changed their tune a little. 
the stats are what is most interesting to me
Meh.
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yeah, I agree with you.
My first though when I started reading names was "where is Sanchez?", so I had to take a look...
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Quote:
THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD
Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.
The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.
FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD
I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%.
The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton.
So Gabbert makes it with a 50.8% completion ratio and a 65.4 QB rating but Dalton's a bust with a 58.1% completion ratio and an 80.4 QB rating and voted as a Pro Bowl alternate.
#GMSTRONG
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I just noticed this Quote:
THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD
Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.
The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.
The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter , Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%.
I presume the writer meant Quincy Carter, though maybe I just don't recall this guy being in the draft:
Though, this sums up both:
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What a bunch of subjective, biased, lopsided crap.
The only thing that "article" proved is that the author is an idiot.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Kind of like that 26/42/60 ( or whatever it was ) dribble you posted a few days ago
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Shoot, that made a rather solid case. This goofball, on the other hand, gave passes to rookie QB's who played like crap.
He might as well have been throwing darts at a dartboard.
I actually clicked on that dope's name. Here's what his bio says when I did:
Quote:
Danny lets me write about the Seahawks, the NFL, and the NFL Draft. I live in Kirkland- am a husband and dad, am a Husky and have a non-football day job.
Who the Hell is Danny?!  
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Quote:
Shoot, that made a rather solid case. This goofball, on the other hand, gave passes to rookie QB's who played like crap.
He might as well have been throwing darts at a dartboard.
I actually clicked on that dope's name. Here's what his bio says when I did:
Quote:
Danny lets me write about the Seahawks, the NFL, and the NFL Draft. I live in Kirkland- am a husband and dad, am a Husky and have a non-football day job.
Who the Hell is Danny?!
I think it's a type and he meant Daddy...
#GMSTRONG
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Quote:
I think it's a type and he meant Daddy...
Well it mentions he has a wife and a kid, so I don't know if he'd need Daddy's permission. Maybe it's his life partner/wife/husband type person. I guess Danny could be male and/or female.
I can't believe I wasted that much time trying to figure out who this person is!!
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
-Derek Jeter
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Quote:
Kind of like that 26/42/60 ( or whatever it was ) dribble you posted a few days ago
I do have to laugh at that one...Favre was one of the QBs who didn't make the cut scoring 22 on his wonderlic..McNabb scored 14 on his wonderlic...Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
GM strong...
Home of the Free, Because of the Brave...
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Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
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well done sir, well done.
#gmstrong
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Quote:
Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Quote:
Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
Nomination for the posts of the year.
I might add that he missed the ones deep down the page as well.
Nice work.
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Quote:
Well Mark has been to 2 AFC championship games in his first 2 years with a good team and Smith only has been to 1 with a crappy team building into his 6th. Heck Rodgers sat for 3 years yet won a SB to bad he had that guy Farve in his way.
And yet Mark will probably be replaced by a guy who 'didn't work out' in Tebow... 
Interesting article... as others have said I don't totally agree to the winners and losers this guy picked... but interesting
<><
#gmstrong
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Bear in mind that most QBs who are dumped by their drafting team usually don't wind up doing much.
It's possible ...... but I don't see Tebow ever really being a long term solution at QB because he simply is not very accurate. He's a phenomenon ..... he might even be a gimmick player ..... but I don't think that he's anyone's long term answer at QB.
I also don't think that Rex Ryan is looking for a guy like that as his starter.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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OK, so drop it back one year, and you get the trio of Couch, McNabb and Smith, and the first round stats look slightly less impressive.
Welcome back, Joe, we missed you!…. That did not age well.
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Quote:
Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
He was lambasted with questions on the right side of the paige and had no time to read the Left.
"Going from 4-12 to 6-10 isn't good enough. I believe we are going to be better than that. We're going to be a lot better than that." - Mike Holmgren (3/15/12)
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
He was lambasted with questions on the right side of the paige and had no time to read the Left.
And then halfway through the test he just assumed the right side would be too difficult and just froze completely....
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Quote:
Quote:
.Colt McCoy missed getting the "stamp of approval" by 1 point, scoring a 25 on the wonderlic instead of the needed 26...
He would have done better but he didn't see the quetions on the left side of the page.
mourg...I guess Dan Marino didn't see the questions either...he scored a "16" on the wonderlic.
...if that doesn't prove how worthless the wonderlic and 26-27-60 rule are, I don't know what does...Dan Marino, one of the best QBs in NFL history scored a 16 on the wonderlic... 
GM strong...
Home of the Free, Because of the Brave...
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You love pointing out guys that buck trends, but ignore the trends...
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Quote:
You love pointing out guys that buck trends, but ignore the trends...
pretty much...
that was my point- accepting the raw data without the opinion of the writer.
Meh.
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Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Awesome stats about Drafting a QB
since 2000 (article)
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