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Long post. Thought I'd do it leading up to the draft.

I've been trying to find the interview with Tom Heckert that dealt with this but I remember the gist.

In order to compete for a championship you need to have 16 or more "plus" players.

This was discussed in Philadelphia with Andy Reid and to their credit did just that. They never won the SuperBowl but did make it to 5 NFC Championship games and 1 SuperBowl.

Where are we as it stands today? I thought I'd break it down by position and use the following system.

++ Top 25% at his position in the NFL
+ Top 50% at his position
- Bottom 50% at his position
- - Bottom 25% at his position

LT: ++ Joe Thomas is the best at his position
LG: - - Jason Pinkston is currently right around the bottom 25% with a chance to be a slight plus player in the future.
C: + Mack is rated lower by me than others but I do think he's in the top 50%
RG: - Shaun Lauvao had too many mental errors last year but has the athleticism and ideal build to potentially be a marginal ++ player.
RT: - - Oneil Cousins is currently stealing an NFL paycheck.
WR1: - Greg Little could develop into a + player as soon as this coming year.
WR2: - - Massaquoi? Norwood? neither would start for most other teams.
RB: - - Hardesty had the potential to be good coming out of college. Not sure if he'll ever be productive at this point.
FB: - - Marecic is the worst starting FB in the NFL as I'm typing this.
TE: + Watson and this is generous to perhaps a fault. Right on the edge for me.
QB: - - McCoy might not start for another NFL team.

RDE: - - Rucker probably doesn't start for too many other NFL teams
DT: ++ Rubin is a very solid player
DT: + Taylor is solid and has surprising stamina but we need a pretty good rotational guy badly
LDE: ++ Sheard was great and will only get better. On the edge of ++ now may be a top guy two more years from now.
SAM: + Gocong is borderline here but is so good attacking the LOS I'm giving him this.
MIKE: + I can't give DQ a top 25% ranking even though it's close
WILL€ - - Maiava would be the starter today. He would not start for another 43 defense.
CB1: ++ Haden is really good but not sure how much better he can get. On the edge and I gave it to him.
SS: - Ward is pretty good. Should be a plus player this year or next.
FS: - Young I like but not top 50% at his position like.
CB2: - Brown is now on the steep side of not being able to play anymore. Could be a - - player this year.

My tally:

9 Plus Starters
13 Minus Starters

Breakdown:

4 Top 25% Starters
5 Top 50% Starters
5 Bottom 50% Starters
8 Bottom 25% Starters

Kind of sobering isn't it. Ugh

Now how this pertains to the draft...

We really need to concentrate on the MINUS MINUS positions with our picks. They are in order of my perceived need:

QB
RT
WILL
RB
WR
RDE
FB
LG

2012 is not going to solve all our problems but hopefully we replace four of these positions with plus talent. Maybe we get lucky later in the draft and get a plus guy or two there as well. One can hope.

That's one man's state of the state.

And it's why we're not considered a threat for the playoffs in 2012.


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Is this Heckerts theory or your interpretation of his theory?


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Love many of the pieces that has been added but until we get the QB, we will be a cellar dwellar.

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Interesting post.

I'd be interested in seeing a similar breakdown for all of the playoff teams last year. Not asking anyone to do it. Just the first thought that popped into my mind.

I'm also wondering if the weighting scale needs to somehow take into account position. 16 plus players with no QB might not get you very far.

But I agree....as currently constructed we are no better than a 4 win team right now. We would not win more than 4 games if the season started today. This draft is so important.


LOL - The Rish will be upset with this news as well. KS just doesn't prioritize winning...
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No it's Heckerts. I thought it was an interesting concept too.


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I can agree with it, to a point.

He has also said that the most important pieces for a team to find are a franchise QB, cover CB, LT, and pass rusher.

Most important doesn't always mean 1st round though, as he has also said that he feels that he can find pass rushers outside the first round.

Further, he has said that his board does not change much from the end of the season to draft day. He puts very little credence on workout wonders, or interviews..... sometimes even if they are not good. (like when Haden ran poorly at his workout) For those wanting a certain QB at 4, they better pray that he somehow had the player as the 4th rated player when the season ended. That seems unlikely to me, but we will see. Plus, of course, Holmgren could influence a pick at that position.

We'll know for sure what direction we take inn just 5 short days .......


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Well we lack the 2 most important pieces in my opinion that being QB and pass rusher. Would love to see Merciless opposite sheard. Maybe Marcus Benard can be what many of us thought he would be in this scheme.

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Quote:

I can agree with it, to a point.

He has also said that the most important pieces for a team to find are a franchise QB, cover CB, LT, and pass rusher.

Most important doesn't always mean 1st round though, as he has also said that he feels that he can find pass rushers outside the first round.

Further, he has said that his board does not change much from the end of the season to draft day. He puts very little credence on workout wonders, or interviews..... sometimes even if they are not good. (like when Haden ran poorly at his workout) For those wanting a certain QB at 4, they better pray that he somehow had the player as the 4th rated player when the season ended. That seems unlikely to me, but we will see. Plus, of course, Holmgren could influence a pick at that position.

We'll know for sure what direction we take inn just 5 short days .......




You mean 5 long days

Anyway I believe that is very much the case with our board. Perhaps a few tweaks, but after the board is set, then they go threw the scenario process and other stuff, so they are still working on the Draft.

The media always pushes the hype machine after the Combine and then acted surprised when one of their workout darlings falls in the Draft in their belief. The other side to that coin is that sometimes it takes the media to come up to speed with knowledge the experts already knew


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Kind of sobering isn't it. Ugh





What would be really sobering is if the Browns agreed with your assessments and didin't so anything about it.

But I suggest they would rate thier players higher than you do.. Especially the younger guys that have room to grow like Pinkston Lauvao, Norwood, Ward, Mericic and yes, McCoy.

this upcoming draft may tell us a lot about what they think. if they take QB high for instance, I think I'd have to think they agree with your thoughts on McCoy.


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Interesting read, I think I would rather see it scaled like college recruiting does with high school players. 5 star players, 4 star players, 3 star players, etc...

***** - Elite, top 2 or 3 at their position in the NFL
**** - Very good player, borderline pro bowl
*** - Solid starter
** - Hurting your team if they see significant amount of plays
* - Roster filler/practice squad

Joe Thomas is a 5 star player, I think Rubin is as well (debatable)

I think Sheard and Haden are 4 star players

Some of these other guys are tough to figure out, I think Jackson is potentially a 4 star player, I think TJ Ward is a solid 3-star guy who could one day be a 4-star player.

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Quote:

Quote:


Kind of sobering isn't it. Ugh





What would be really sobering is if the Browns agreed with your assessments and didin't so anything about it.

But I suggest they would rate thier players higher than you do.. Especially the younger guys that have room to grow like Pinkston Lauvao, Norwood, Ward, Mericic and yes, McCoy.

this upcoming draft may tell us a lot about what they think. if they take QB high for instance, I think I'd have to think they agree with your thoughts on McCoy.




I think trying to trade 3 no.1 picks for a QB tells me all I need to know.


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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:


Kind of sobering isn't it. Ugh





What would be really sobering is if the Browns agreed with your assessments and didin't so anything about it.

But I suggest they would rate thier players higher than you do.. Especially the younger guys that have room to grow like Pinkston Lauvao, Norwood, Ward, Mericic and yes, McCoy.

this upcoming draft may tell us a lot about what they think. if they take QB high for instance, I think I'd have to think they agree with your thoughts on McCoy.




I think trying to trade 3 no.1 picks for a QB tells me all I need to know.




Yeah but we didn't ACTUALLY do it...

So that means it means nothing...


Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Good work...

Some disagreements:

Ward is easily + if not ++...you should take a closer look at other starting S in this league...there aren't many other Pola's around...Ward is a well above AVG SS and I personally think he's a Top 10 if not 5 SS (and profootballfocus agrees btw)

Sheard is "just" a + (still impressive considering his position and experience)

Watson is a -...still a decent starter, but there are 10+ better TEs around by now

Rucker/Parker should be considered 1 player since they will split RDE duty 2/3 to 1/3 and that combo is easily +...I honestly think this combo has ++ potential, you will see...Rucker was one of the best run stopping DEs and Parker is a pretty good pass rusher-only if kept fresh (and he will be since Rucker will do the grunt work)

You will regret calling Marecic the worst starting FB...I willl take bets on that....prepare yourself to eat major crow, he's a football player...Vickers is a backup btw if your still mourning him (and he was hated as a rook too, remember? "I want Terrelle Smith back, wahaa")


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Your team can't compete if the head coach messes it up, the head coach may be the single most important feature to any football teams success because he can make a few bad decisions and mess up an overpowering day by many players.

The quarterback is the most important player on the field and only sometimes can a really all star runninback have a larger influence on a game.

A coach and a quarterback can make everyone on the field look better. Someone is saying, Ben Watson is only 10th best or worse as a tight end, well a quarterback not getting the ball there or even keeping drives alive can be responsible for that.
The quarterback could be looking worse because the Head coach is doing him in on gameday. The coach can put the team and quarterback in bad situations by making bad decisions according to the situation the game presents at any given time.
I think it's 1/3rd Coach. 1/3rd Quarterback. 1/3rd everybody else.

The coach has to be accountable for the offense, the Quarterback and everyone else also.


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The only oversights I saw:

Scoring Rucker is debatable. Someone posted some stats where he is the best run stopper in the entire league per down. At a minimum I would put him at - until we see this season. I actually expect him to be +.

Watson is in a tricky spot where he is a good tight end, but there are just a lot of very good tight ends. He is a + as far as what he needs to do, so placing him based on comparison might not be necessary.

Sheard is somewhere between ++ and +, It is hard to place a rookie in ++ (Wimbley comes to mind) without waiting for a repeat performance.

Ward is also either + or ++. As Django said you need to pay attention to safety play throughout the league, it is bad right now. We just happen to play against the two top safeties in 4 games every year.

I tend to go with what mourg was saying. Winning depends on your QB first, and then this comes into play.

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I still don't like Rucker ...... but as far as Parker, someone (and I wish I could remember who so I could give them credit) brought up a good point: He's been a solid situational pass rusher for the Eagles, until they went to that "Wide 9" defense. He probably is not well suited to such a defense at his age, but might very well do a solid job for us in a more traditional 4-3.


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Quote:

Now how this pertains to the draft...

We really need to concentrate on the MINUS MINUS positions with our picks. They are in order of my perceived need:

QB
RT
WILL
RB
WR
RDE
FB
LG

2012 is not going to solve all our problems but hopefully we replace four of these positions with plus talent. Maybe we get lucky later in the draft and get a plus guy or two there as well. One can hope.

That's one man's state of the state.

And it's why we're not considered a threat for the playoffs in 2012.







QB...may not be a potential ++ available to the Browns in this draft
RT...there will be potential ++ available to Browns in this draft
WILL...depends on Heckert's priorities
RB...++ available in this draft
WR...++ available in this draft
RDE...again team priorities
FB...got one that might turn into a +
LG...got one that might develop into a +

When we consider the fact that some of - positions have already been addressed and need time to develop, the Browns could be closer to the 16 ++ than some think.

All the + players need to raise their level of play and have the potential to become ++ players.

If a the Browns have already addressed areas of need in Heckert's first and second drafts, it is up to the coaching staff to develop and teach these potential ++ players. After 2 seasons of experience, if a player is still rated a - or - -, it may be a reflection of the quality of the coaching rather than the quality of the player.

The Browns cannot address all the - - areas in one draft. This draft and the next draft will be needed and those players already drafted by Heckert need to raise their level of play.

Not this year, Browns fans...but after next years draft when most of the areas of need have been filled via the draft...that is when the Browns begin winning more games than they lose.



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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:


Kind of sobering isn't it. Ugh





What would be really sobering is if the Browns agreed with your assessments and didin't so anything about it.

But I suggest they would rate thier players higher than you do.. Especially the younger guys that have room to grow like Pinkston Lauvao, Norwood, Ward, Mericic and yes, McCoy.

this upcoming draft may tell us a lot about what they think. if they take QB high for instance, I think I'd have to think they agree with your thoughts on McCoy.




I think trying to trade 3 no.1 picks for a QB tells me all I need to know.




Yes and no. Yes, they saw a shot at a (perceived) serious Upgrade with RG and they took that shot. But that doesn't necessarly mean they think they can't win with McCoy.

Now, if they go after say, Tannehill anywhere in the first,, I'd agree with ya..100%. But let's say they go for a Weeden or Oswieler (sp) in the Latter rounds,, I"m not sure it means anything other than what Holmgren always did..find a QB in just about every draft.


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Quote:

Yeah but we didn't ACTUALLY do it...

So that means it means nothing...





There's one thing that always seems to be absent whenever this subject is brought up.......And that is Heckert came out & said that the #22 was not for sale. This was when they (the media) first starting talking about the Browns moving up for RGIII. I think that tells a big part of why we did not get him. We Knew We Were not going to Get Him. Otherwise we would have offered the #22 and anything else we thought it would take. But like I said before, H&H had to do something to appease the fan base. I think we offered just enough to be in the running, but I also think we knew without that #22 on the table we were out. Which is fine with me, That trade would have set us back 2-3 yrs. Go Browns!


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I agree - if they really wanted Griffin, they would own the #2 pick today. That's not the same as saying they wouldn't have taken him at #4 with their own pick (although its arguable), but there was never a chance they were going to give up the ransom Washington paid, imo.

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I don't think they were ever sold on him to begin with. But, in keeping with the subject....Hel, I think ya did a good job. I would go easy on the FB, he's still learning. I think Pinky did a good job & will get better. The only one I'm not sure about is JC, the TE. Although the staff seems to think he made strides during the yr. I did not see it, but, I don't really look at anyone player during the game.

You guys are a blessing to me. I've learned alot during these years, It makes the Doom & Gloom a little easier to take


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Quote:

I agree - if they really wanted Griffin, they would own the #2 pick today. That's not the same as saying they wouldn't have taken him at #4 with their own pick (although its arguable), but there was never a chance they were going to give up the ransom Washington paid, imo.





I think you guys are kidding yourselves. We didn't start making offers just to drive up the price for the Skins.

We wanted him in a bad way.


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I think you guys are kidding yourselves. We didn't start making offers just to drive up the price for the Skins.




No, we started making offers to get the wolfs off our back and to show the fans that were trying to compete. Were just not doing it the way everyone wants us to.

Giving away 2 drafts defeats that purpose. When the Gov. tells us that inflation is down & the un-employment rate is falling, do we follow them along that path? Most of us don't. I don't think this is any different, H&H were trying to sooth the fans, they need the money makers as much as the next team.


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I don't think their aim was to drive up the price for the "Skins, more like getting cover with the fans who had fallen for the hype surrounding Griffin. The Indians do it every time they lose a free agent - claim they made a representative offer that fell just short - when the truth was they had no intention of paying the price that free agent would require. Its Public Relations; I don't think they wanted the guy.

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Quote:

Quote:

I think you guys are kidding yourselves. We didn't start making offers just to drive up the price for the Skins.




No, we started making offers to get the wolfs off our back and to show the fans that were trying to compete. Were just not doing it the way everyone wants us to.

Giving away 2 drafts defeats that purpose. When the Gov. tells us that inflation is down & the un-employment rate is falling, do we follow them along that path? Most of us don't. I don't think this is any different, H&H were trying to sooth the fans, they need the money makers as much as the next team.




Oh my God ..... do you really believe that? Really?

Why would we drive up the price of a player for another team? What benefit would that have for us?

Why would the front office feel the need to fake trying to get a player? Do you really think that trying and failing helped us in any way whatsoever?

Wow.


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I agree, that theory is a little far fetched.

It's not like we where privy to what the other teams offer would be. Speculate yes, but that's a far cry from certainty.

Unless we have a double agent working in their FO.


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Again, your missing the point. Heck said the other day that they would have to laugh sometimes at the reports that they heard or saw because some people had a player rated in the 1st. round, and the Team had them rated in the 3rd. round.

Look, I think they (the FO) have a plan. I also think that the way they want to go about it, is NOT the same way the Media wants us to go about it. Make sense?

We all want to get better, It might not be the same road that everybody else wants us to take. That's all I'm saying. Be Cool


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TE: + Watson and this is generous to perhaps a fault. Right on the edge for me.
LDE: ++ Sheard was great and will only get better. On the edge of ++ now may be a top guy two more years from now.
CB1: ++ Haden is really good but not sure how much better he can get. On the edge and I gave it to him.





A non-homer would knock these down one notch each.

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Well you could either hurl around smack in the wrong forum, or you could try to back your arguments.


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Watson is a reliable, if unspectacular, player when healthy. However, he's 31, has only played 10+ games three seasons in his career, and got his brain turned to mush last season.

Sheard had an excellent rookie season, but is by no means an elite player at this point. Let's see how he does in his second year.

Haden is on the cusp of being elite, but he has to hang on to the ball when it hits him in the hands if he wants to take that final step to elite status. Other than that, he's pretty much there.

JMHO on those three players.

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Quote:


TE: + Watson and this is generous to perhaps a fault. Right on the edge for me.
LDE: ++ Sheard was great and will only get better. On the edge of ++ now may be a top guy two more years from now.
CB1: ++ Haden is really good but not sure how much better he can get. On the edge and I gave it to him.





A non-homer would knock these down one notch each.





Watson- last year was rated as the 24th best TE in the NFL in terms of receiving yards and only playing 13 games.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?t...;seasonType=REG

Rubin rated as the 2nd best DL in terms of tackles (best DT)

phil taylor rated as the 8th best DL in terms of tackles (3rd best DT)

Sheared rated as the 15th best DL in terms of tackles (10th DE) rated 16th best in terms of sacks (tied with Dwight Freeney) 2nd best in the NFL in terms of FF

Haden constantly gets press about being a top 10 DB in the NFL...

here is one of many that ranks him not only top 10 but came in at #3 last year.
bleacherreport.com/articles/1118304-br-nfl-1000-top-100-cornerbacks/page/99
Haden came in behind Charles Woodson and Darrelle Revis


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By the way.....

Another Heckert ascertation that I agree with:

Positional Ranking:

QB
LT
RDE
CB

Doesn't it make the most sense to draft:

Tannehill - QB
Mercilus or Perry - RDE

to complement Thomas at LT and Haden at CB?

Just a thought...and my official prediction for the first round of the draft.


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This is out of left field, why did I just now think of this.

How good would Jeff Saturday have been in Cleveland? He would have been average. He was Peyton Mannings center for a long time.
The Quarterback makes the offensive line. At least helps them look bettter. That supports my arugment.


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Joined: Apr 2007
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It seems many browns fans are wowed by big athletic ability. The NFL is littered with physically gifted flops, for every dan marino, there are plenty od heath shulers out there. I'll take a guy that wins football games and makes game ending drives,


Ruining QB's since 1999.
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It seems many browns fans are wowed by big athletic ability. The NFL is littered with physically gifted flops, for every dan marino, there are plenty od heath shulers out there. I'll take a guy that wins football games and makes game ending drives,




we have that guy on our team... we just need to get him some guys to chatch the football and run the ball and a RT to block for him.


Hunter + Dart = This is the way.
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By the way.....

Another Heckert ascertation that I agree with:

Positional Ranking:

QB
LT
RDE
CB

Doesn't it make the most sense to draft:

Tannehill - QB
Mercilus or Perry - RDE

to complement Thomas at LT and Haden at CB?

Just a thought...and my official prediction for the first round of the draft.



Just because he ranks QB as the most important position doesn't mean you go with the best available QB if you aren't comfortable that he's THE GUY.

Because by that logic, in the first 2 drafts he would have taken Claussen or Locker or Gabbert if he just wanted to draft the best available QB at the time to fill the slot...


yebat' Putin
DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Heckert Theory on Competing for a Championship

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