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WSJ Source

The housing market has turned—at last.

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing "experts" that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing.

Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. "We finally saw some rising home prices," S&P's David Blitzer said a few weeks ago as he reported the first monthly increase in the slow-moving S&P/Case-Shiller house-price data after seven months of declines.


The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing "experts" that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing, according to David Wessel on The News Hub. (Photo: Bloomberg News)


Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier, many purchased by investors who plan to rent them for now and sell them later, an important sign of an inflection point. In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months' worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.

The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won't happen again this year, he says.


Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.

"Even with the overall economy slowing," Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, "the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum."

Economists aren't always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don't. (The full results of the Journal's July survey will be released at 2pm ET)

Housing is still far from healthy despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to resuscitate it by helping to push mortgage rates to extraordinary lows: 3.62% for a 30-year loan, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. Single-family housing starts, though up, remain 60% below the 2002 pre-bubble pace. Americans' equity in homes is $2 trillion, or 25%, less than it was in 2002 and half what it was at the peak. More than one in every four mortgage borrowers still has a loan bigger than the value of the house, though rising home prices are reducing that fraction slowly.

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Still, the upturn in housing is a milestone, a particularly welcome one amid a distressing dearth of jobs. For some time, housing has been one of the biggest causes of economic weakness. It has now—barely—moved to the plus side. "A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind," says economist Chip Case, the "Case" in Case-Shiller.

From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses. "Manufacturing had led growth and construction had lagged," JPMorgan Chase economists said last week."Now the roles are reversed: Manufacturing growth has slowed as private construction comes to life."

Plenty could go wrong. The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won't put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures; a flood could reverse the recent rise in prices. Or the still-dysfunctional mortgage market could get worse. Or overly zealous regulators or a post-election change in government policy could unsettle mortgage lenders or home buyers.

But the housing bust is over.

Write to David Wessel at capital@wsj.com


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From personal experience, I'd say this is right on track. I see more construction lately than I have in a while. As well, for 2-3 years the only houses sold that I could use as a comp for re-fi were short sales, but my neighbor 2 doors down just sold for $30k more than the last short sale. From talking to her real estate agent, the inventory has reduced so much lately, we're starting to see full price offers too (my neighbor had 3 people visit on day 1, and the first person put in an offer $3k over her selling price just to make sure she got it).

For someone who wanted to be in the place only 5 years (I just hit 9), this is very good news...

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We've been looking at houses since April ... and most of the houses in the price range we were looking at evaporated by July. Granted, this is also the summer market, and lots of houses seem to sell after school is out and families are more willing to uproot. It will be interesting to see what happens in the later months, as more of these foreclosures are put back on the market. There are still a large number of houses that banks are just sitting on. Rather than glut the market, they are hoping to balance supply and demand by holding on to a lot of these foreclosures.

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Our best friends, who live in the sister building next to ours, just sold their place a tad over their purchase price from about 8-9 years ago. To say that 2 years ago would be crazy. And the market is still going up in our area (River North).

Sure, it's not growing as fast as everyone would like...and it's growing from a very low place, but growth is growth.


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hard to say from here as the home values only dipped ~10% (and then remained relatively flat and are staying steady there). new home builders still seem to be sluggish in the developments near mine.

but, good news to hear that overall it's recovering a bit.


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You're in River North area? When I'm in Chicago for work, they put us up at the Westin River North. I really like that area.

As for the topic at hand, it appears to be true, at least the start of a turn around. My mom had a hOuse far sale and ended up with 3 people making offers on it!


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Put me in the not convinced column , not in any way shape or form ..

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OK ... I'm confused .......

Quote:

In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months' worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.




How can this be when we have had years of foreclosures, lost homes, and bank owned homes at all time highs?

I doubt that we've had that big of an increase in new home sales.

Foreclosures have been put on hold because of a lot of government programs. What happens when those foreclosures start up again?

Quote:

The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won't happen again this year, he says.





Again, the inventory has reduced ..... but what about all of those bank owned properties that haven't hit the market?

Quote:

"Even with the overall economy slowing," Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, "the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum."




Interest rates are at all time lows ....... the government has given out tons of incentives for new buyers ........ we should see massive movement among young and first time buyers who actually have jobs.

I'm still not convinced. Maybe if we get more than a month or 2 of positive data, then I'll believe it.


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they tapped out alot of the 1st time buyers with all of their incentives a few years ago. as such, no matter the current incentives, there are only so many 1st time buyers to go around.

i agree that the banks holding onto the foreclosures can be making this look better than it really is, but that also means the banks are being smarter about how they release homes for sale (rather than just flooding the market) and hopefully will continue to do so (it'll mean a slower but steadier overall recovery if it is indeed headed uphill)


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I was getting unaccustomed to good news.. this qualifies..


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Quote:

We've been looking at houses since April ... and most of the houses in the price range we were looking at evaporated by July. Granted, this is also the summer market, and lots of houses seem to sell after school is out and families are more willing to uproot. It will be interesting to see what happens in the later months, as more of these foreclosures are put back on the market. There are still a large number of houses that banks are just sitting on. Rather than glut the market, they are hoping to balance supply and demand by holding on to a lot of these foreclosures.




The last part of your post is what scares me. When the banks release their inventory, what happens? My mom is coming out in 3 weeks to visit, I have a goal to have my house on the market within a couple weeks of that - seeing how fast hers went (it is identical, though I've upgraded more), I am hoping I can get out before the glut. Unfortunately, I'll end up with only $10-12k equity after closing/realtor fees, but that is more than just a few months ago.

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j/c This is very odd. On the Today Show this morning, they had a segment on how the banks are gearing up for a new rush of foreclosures, and how it will be devastating to the housing market. You really don't know what to believe anymore, especially during an election year.

I also found this Ohio related article on the topic:

Reuters

(Reuters) - Half a decade into the deepest U.S. housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is finally nearing its end. House sales are picking up across most of the country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in 2011, hitting a four-year low.

But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.

"We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.

"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.

In 2011, the "robo-signing" scandal, in which foreclosure documents were signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold back on new foreclosures pending a settlement.

Five major banks eventually struck that settlement with 49 U.S. states in February. Signs are growing the pace of foreclosures is picking up again, something housing experts predict will again weigh on home prices before any sustained recovery can occur.

Mortgage servicing provider Lender Processing Services reported in early March that U.S. foreclosure starts jumped 28 percent in January.

More conclusive national data is not yet available. But watchdog group, 4closurefraud.org which helped uncover the "robo-signing" scandal, says it has turned up evidence of a large rise in new foreclosures between March 1 and 24 by three big banks in Palm Beach County in Florida, one of the states hit hardest by the housing crash

Although foreclosure starts were 50 percent or more lower than for the same period in 2010, those begun by Deutsche Bank were up 47 percent from 2011. Those of Wells Fargo's rose 68 percent and Bank of America's, including BAC Home Loans Servicing, jumped nearly seven-fold -- 251 starts versus 37 in the same period in 2011. Bank of America said it does not comment on data provided by other sources. Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank did not comment.

Housing experts say localized warning signs of a new wave of foreclosure are likely to be replicated across much of the United States.

Online foreclosure marketplace RealtyTrac estimated that while foreclosures dropped slightly nationwide in February from January and from February 2011, they rose in 21 states and jumped sharply in cities like Tampa (64 percent), Chicago (43 percent) and Miami (53 percent).

RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore said the "numbers point to a gradually rising foreclosure tide as some of the barriers that have been holding back foreclosures are removed."

One big difference to the early years of the housing crisis, which was dominated by Americans saddled with the most toxic subprime products -- with high interest rates where banks asked for no money down or no proof of income -- is that today it's mostly Americans with ordinary mortgages whose ability to meet payment have been hit by the hard economic times.

"The subprime stuff is long gone," said Michael Redman, founder of 4closurefraud.org. "Now the folks being affected are hardworking, everyday Americans struggling because of the economy."

"HARD TO CATCH UP"

Until December 2010, Daniel Burns, 52, had spent his working life in the trucking industry as a long-haul driver and manager. When daily loads at the small family business where he worked tailed off, he lost his job.

Unable to cover his mortgage, Burns received a grant from a government fund using money repaid from the 2008 bank bailout. That grant is due to expire in early 2013 and Burns is holding out on hopeful comments from his former employer that he might get his job back if the economy recovers.

"If things don't pick up, I will be out on the street," he said, staring from his living room window at two abandoned houses over the road in the middle-class Cleveland suburb of Garfield Heights, the noise of traffic from a nearby Interstate highway filling the street.

Underscoring the uncertainty of his situation, Burns' cell phone rings and a pre-recorded message announces that his unemployment benefits are due to be cut off in April.

A bit further up the shore of Lake Erie, Cristal Fell, who works night shifts entering data for a trucking company in Toledo, has fallen behind on her mortgage a second time because her ex-husband lost his job and her overtime was cut.

"Once you get behind it's so hard to catch up," she said.

Fell, a mother of four, hopes the economy will gather enough speed to help her avoid any risk of losing her home. Her ex-husband has found a new job and she is getting more overtime, so she hopes she can catch up on her mortgage by the fall.

Burns and Fell are the new face of the U.S. housing crisis: Middle class, suburban or rural with a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage at a reasonable interest rate, but unemployed or underemployed. Although the national unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent from its peak of 10 percent in October 2009, nearly 13 million Americans remain jobless, meaning many are struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments.

Real estate company Zillow Inc says more than one in four American homeowners were "under water" or owed more than their homes were worth in the fourth quarter of 2011. The crisis has wiped out some $7 trillion in U.S. household wealth.

"We're seeing more people coming through who have good loans with reasonable interest rates," said Ed Jacob, executive director of non-profit lender Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago Inc, which provides foreclosure counseling. "But in many households only one person works now instead of two, or they had their hours cut."

"The answer to the housing crisis now is job creation."

EARLY SIGNS OF UPTICK?

Zillow expects the resurgence in foreclosures this year, combined with excess inventory of unsold, bank-owned homes will contribute to a 3.7 percent national decline in prices before the market hits bottom in 2013 and stays there until 2016.

"The hangover from this crisis will far outlast the party of the boom years," said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries.

Getting through the remaining foreclosures and dealing with the resulting flood of homes on the market in the wake of the bank settlement is a necessary part of the healing process for the U.S. housing market, he added.

According to leading broker dealer Amherst Securities, some 9.5 million homes are still at risk of default and in February it said it expected to see the uptick in foreclosures start to hit in March and April.

There is other evidence that many of the foreclosures that did not happen in 2011 will happen this year.

A January report by the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project in New York found that in the first half of 2011 the number of 90-day pre-foreclosure notices in New York City outnumbered court foreclosure actions by a ratio of 14 to one, indicating that while proceedings were initiated against many homeowners, they were left incomplete.

"Now the banks have a settlement, foreclosure numbers for 2012 are going to be high," said NEDAP co-director Josh Zinner.

A recent survey by the California Reinvestment Coalition, an umbrella group of nearly 300 non-profit groups in the state, of member agencies found 75 percent of respondents expected increased demand for their foreclosure prevention services in 2012 but more than a third had to scale back services because of funding cuts.

"Funding is a major concern given what our members expect for this year," said associate director Kevin Stein.

All this has non-profits intensifying calls for the Federal Housing Finance Agency to drop its opposition to allowing the government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac it regulates to reduce principal for underwater homeowners.

Principal reduction involves reducing the amount borrowers owe in order to make a loan modification affordable for struggling homeowners. Republicans and the FHFA oppose principal reduction because of the risk of "moral hazard"- that homeowners who do not need help will seek to abuse largesse and have their mortgages reduced too.

ESOP in Ohio engages in "hits" on Chase branches -- they say Chase is the least accommodating major bank when it comes to working with struggling homeowners -- where they try to hand letters to bank mangers calling on chief executive Jamie Dimon to lobby FHFA head Edward DeMarco for principal reductions. A Chase spokeswoman said the bank has made "extensive efforts" to work with homeowners, helping 775,000 borrowers stay in their homes since early 2009, avoiding foreclosure "more than twice as often as we have had to foreclose." Housing groups like ESOP maintain, as they have throughout the housing crisis, that unless the FHFA embraces widespread principal reduction, many more under water borrowers face losing their homes.

"Until banks engage in meaningful principal reduction as a matter of course," ESOP's Seifert said after a recent protest at a Chase branch in Cleveland, "this crisis will not end."


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Thanks for the post, jf. It is tough to wade through all of this.

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Hopefully adjustable rate mortgages never become popular again.

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According to the tax records in my county my house is still worth 500 bucks more than I paid for it over 8 years ago


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Quote:

According to the tax records in my county my house is still worth 500 bucks more than I paid for it over 8 years ago




Eh - according to my county, my house is worth about 5 grand more than I bought it for 12 years ago.

Golly - I wonder why that is?

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I'm not ready to buy a house yet. This is bad news.


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I can see how banks have a wave of foreclosures coming. I know several people personally who haven't paid their mortgage in several years and have yet to get a notice.

Around here vacant houses are often vandalized or squatted and destroyed. So having the residents stay is a benefit to the bank until the market rises and they can recoup more of their losses than they could by foreclosing now and having the house sit unsold for months to years.


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Quote:

According to the tax records in my county my house is still worth 500 bucks more than I paid for it over 8 years ago




tax valuations don't mean a thing when gauging sales value..


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