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Do the Indians pick up Ubaldo's $5.75M option next season?
I'm not trying to defend the Indians trade for Ubaldo with this question....just a question.
What do you think the going rate for a pitcher that can eat 170-175 innings and get you 10-12 wins? $5.75 millions ain't bad. Now, you wouldn't want him to be your #2 starter.....but considering Cole Hamels* just signed for $24 million per year, I would say about $6 million isn't bad.
*74-54 before this season - and that was over 6 years. Never had more than 15 wins in any season.
![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/Punchsmack/punch.gif) “...Iguodala to Curry, back to Iguodala, up for the layup! Oh! Blocked by James! LeBron James with the rejection!”
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because his history shows a consistency in his peripherals except for this season
because we gave up too much to get him (yes that plays into it)
adam dunn had one of the worst seasons for a hitter last year. but, this year, he is much closer to getting back to his statistical norm. we have to hope that Ubaldo does the same next year because we are not getting better "hope" out of that $$$
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Carmona-Hernandez though is a different animal. he was terrible last season. he was terrible in his minor league warm-ups. he has a $6mil option as well. I think there is a very real chance we dump him (and his declining stats) and use his money on someone like Joe Blanton if he doesn't impress over the next month and a half.
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Quote:
Quote:
Do the Indians pick up Ubaldo's $5.75M option next season?
I'm not trying to defend the Indians trade for Ubaldo with this question....just a question.
What do you think the going rate for a pitcher that can eat 170-175 innings and get you 10-12 wins? $5.75 millions ain't bad. Now, you wouldn't want him to be your #2 starter.....but considering Cole Hamels* just signed for $24 million per year, I would say about $6 million isn't bad.
*74-54 before this season - and that was over 6 years. Never had more than 15 wins in any season.
Yeah, but why do that when they can grab a washed-up vet who was good 10 years ago for half the price?
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Hey... Faus... er... Roberto Carm... er... Hernandez... Roberto Hernandez (I think) is pitching tonight! Woo hoo! I wonder if he'll keep it in the single digits before Manny lifts him in the 3rd or 4th. 
[color:"white"]"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
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So, home field advantage in the world series was largely determined by a guy on PED's. Sweet! Quote:
Melky Cabrera suspended for 50 games for positive testosterone test
Craig Calcaterra Aug 15, 2012, 2:47 PM EDT
7 Comments
Getty Images
Big, big news out of San Francisco that could have major playoff implications: Melky Cabrera has been suspended 50 games for a positive testosterone test.
That knocks him out for the rest of the season — the Giants only have 45 games left — and presumably the postseason. Though I’ll check to see whether suspensions can be counted off with postseason games. If they can. He’d be available for a theoretical NLCS.
Oh, and it appears that Melky lied to Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com about it too, so that’s fun.
Cabrera is hitting .346/.390/.516 on the year and, until Buster Posey‘s hot streak of late, was the Giants’ offensive MVP for most of the season. Now … he’s gone. And it hurts not just the Giants: Cabrera will be a free agent after the season is over, and now his free agent money drive is all gone.
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So home field advantage in the World Series was determined during an exhibition game that means nothing and the MVP of that game took illegal substances that no one cares about?
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Makes perfect sense, don't it? 
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wait, so you are telling me that a guy who hit like Matt LaPorta his first several seasons in MLB and all of a sudden busted out to become a premier power hitter was taking PEDs?
(I realize he's not a HR hitter. but he went from no power to one of the best doubles hitters in the game. also, 2011 Royals to have huge hitting increases were Alex Gordon, Jeff Francouer, and Hosmer sure looked better last year. Just saying).
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Jimenez peaked in the 1st half of 2010. His second half deteriorated. 2011 he continued to go down hill. We traded for him. He progressively worsened in 2011and has continued to worsen through out this season. He has shown nothing to suggest that there should be any hope for a turn around.
Proactive evaluators saw this coming before we traded for him.
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Quote:
Jimenez peaked in the 1st half of 2010. His second half deteriorated. 2011 he continued to go down hill. We traded for him. He progressively worsened in 2011and has continued to worsen through out this season. He has shown nothing to suggest that there should be any hope for a turn around.
Proactive evaluators saw this coming before we traded for him.
ok, no doubt that 2010 was likely non-repeatable. however, it's folly to suggest that he was pitching all that worse in 2011 compared to his other seasons. 2012 is a different story.
I could break down all the peripheral categories (go to fangraphs.com if you want to see them), but FIP and xFIP combine them and demonstrate it just as well:
year FIP xFIP
2008 3.83 4.16
2009 3.36 3.59
2010 3.10 3.60
2011 3.67 3.71
2012 5.30 5.01
Now do you see why I have some hope that he can get back to his previous numbers? He was remarkably consistent for 4 seasons and then fell off a cliff this year.
Peripheral stats that have gotten worse this year include K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB%, HR/FB%. Remarkably all while his BABIP and LOB% have remained consistent. He needs to fix himself and maybe he doesn't get back to where he was, but it seems awfully strange he would just lose all that without injury.
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1st - I don't know what FIP and xFIP are.
2nd - He could possibly have an injury.
3rd - How often does a player who has not had an injury fall off for an extended period of time then return to form? Note: extended, all players go through hot and cold spells.
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1st - I don't know what FIP and xFIP are.
takes all the numbers that statisticians feel a pitcher can control and gives an "expected ERA" with them. I don't like xFIP very much because it factors in HR rate being standard and too many pitchers have shown that isn't really true.
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2nd - He could possibly have an injury.
true, in fact, I sort of hope he does. one that can be fixed with an offseason of rest at least.
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3rd - How often does a player who has not had an injury fall off for an extended period of time then return to form? Note: extended, all players go through hot and cold spells.
Jason Werth and Adam Dunn are the two most recent glaring examples that came to mind (both hitters obviously).
the pitchers I initially thought of all came back from injury (those tend to get more publicity - Sheets, Johan Santana, etc.). Ervin Santana and Ubaldo will make interesting case studies for next season though.
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Felix Hernandez, perfect game. He is really good.
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Thanks for the FIP info. I pitched in college and the stats I like to use are ERA but a modified ERA. I noticed that relievers tend to have the best ERA's. I think that number is skewed because as a starting pitcher, if I let a guy on 1st then get pulled for the reliever lets him score the starter only gave up one base but gets credited with the earned run even the he advanced 3 bases on the reliever. I would give 2 bases (one half earned run) to the starter (because home to 1st is the most difficult base for a batter/runner to advance) and 3 bases (three-fourths of an earned run). I personally think that this gives a more accurate measure of performance.
The other number I like to look at is strikeout to walk ratio. I think this gives the best indication of dominance and control.
I hope he has a minor injury that is easily recovered from. Otherwise I don't think he turns around. Pitching is such a cerebral position. Both strategy (which a good catcher can compensate for) and state of mind. Once a pitcher gets his head screwed up (Rocker?, Ankiel?), he just doesn't recover.
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Quote:
Quote:
Do the Indians pick up Ubaldo's $5.75M option next season?
I'm not trying to defend the Indians trade for Ubaldo with this question....just a question.
What do you think the going rate for a pitcher that can eat 170-175 innings and get you 10-12 wins? $5.75 millions ain't bad. Now, you wouldn't want him to be your #2 starter.....but considering Cole Hamels* just signed for $24 million per year, I would say about $6 million isn't bad.
*74-54 before this season - and that was over 6 years. Never had more than 15 wins in any season.
I agree. Some people just don't understand the economics of baseball. Pitchers who can win 15 games get paid a ton of money.
There just aren't that many people who can actually do that.
It's why pitchers are drafted high and often. Teams know washout and injury rates are high. You get a guy to make it through and have success, he's going to make a boatload.
Last edited by Ballpeen; 08/15/12 07:43 PM.
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I have often wondered how a little testosterone could really d much for someone ..... but I gotta tell you ..... I am on testosterone therapy right now because of the medications I have been taking. I went from zero energy to being able to get through the whole day without having to go lie down out of complete exhaustion. This is with a minimal type dose too.
I can't imagine how much higher doses effect someone who already has a normal level of testosterone in their system.
Then again, my doctor said that testosterone levels can fluctuate a great deal throughout the day, and that different tests can yield different results even if taken on the same day.
I can't remember what the normal levels are .... but it was a huge wide range.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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You talk like pitcher wins is a meaningful stat. The fact that a pitcher that has been as bad as Jimenez might end up with 12 wins just shows how horrible a stat that is.
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Quote:
You talk like pitcher wins is a meaningful stat. The fact that a pitcher that has been as bad as Jimenez might end up with 12 wins just shows how horrible a stat that is.
Cliff Lee is 2-7 on the season. Are you trying to say that Ubaldo isn't better than Cliff Lee?
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Quote:
You talk like pitcher wins is a meaningful stat. The fact that a pitcher that has been as bad as Jimenez might end up with 12 wins just shows how horrible a stat that is.
A win isn't the best way to determine how effective a starting pitcher is....but it's a decent measure. It says the starter lasted at least 5 innings, pitched with the lead and kept his team in the game. That to me says something.
Sure, a starter could go 5 innings and give up 8 ERs....while his team scored 10 in the same 5 innings. He would get the win, assuming the lead was maintained through the end of the game. While he would get the win, it was indeed an horrible outing. However, in my book, every pitcher has games like that or is pitching in a stadium on a day where the wind is blowing out and that's the best you could hope for....what counts is how much they battle to give the team a chance to win.
So yes, a win doesn't prove everything, but it says a lot about how the pitcher is giving your team a chance to win, and that's the overall goal of every team, to win games.
And for me, using pitching metrics isn't all that perfect either. Say your offense exploded on the opposing pitcher and you're up 11-0 after 3 innings. The starter is going to want to keep the score zero, but he won't really have to. He can be more aggressive in the zone knowing a solo homer won't really jeopardize the win (or letting a walked batter steal 2nd). And what about the day games after the bullpen was used heavily....in the same 11-0 situation, the manager might leave his starter in the game longer even if he starts giving up runs in the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings....because he wants the guy to eat some innings even though he's giving up a few runs. In those scenario's the starter is piling up bad stats....but is doing his job for the team.
Both of these situations, using the W as the almighty stat or other pitching metrics, really proves the old saying, "stats are for losers". 
Last edited by Punchsmack; 08/16/12 09:56 AM.
“...Iguodala to Curry, back to Iguodala, up for the layup! Oh! Blocked by James! LeBron James with the rejection!”
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but it says a lot about how the pitcher is giving your team a chance to win
No it doesn't. It says. "this guy was in the game for at least five innings and had the lead when he left."
That's it.
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but it says a lot about how the pitcher is giving your team a chance to win
No it doesn't. It says. "this guy was in the game for at least five innings and had the lead when he left."
That's it.
Sure that's what it means for any given game, heck he could leave the game having given up 8 runs but have a 10-8 lead and still win... but when taken over a longer period, a good winning percentage begins to mean something.
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I think given a large enough sample size, it can have merit. But, I also think that the sample sizes for it to have merit are longer than a single season and thus too many variables (team hitting, defense, etc) to mean much to us talking about it.
Best example continues to be:
Cliff Lee
14-8 w/ 5.47 ERA in 2004 (8K/9, 4BB/9)
2-7 w/ 3.85 ERA in 2012 (8K/9, 1.5BB/9)
which season was he a better pitcher?
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Quote:
but when taken over a longer period, a good winning percentage begins to mean something.
No it doesn't.
How does it not matter when taken individually, but when you add them up they now matter?
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but when taken over a longer period, a good winning percentage begins to mean something.
No it doesn't.
How does it not matter when taken individually, but when you add them up they now matter?
Because patterns develop over time. If you go out with a girl who turns out to be a psycho, then that's on her... if over 5 years you date 10 girls and 9 of them turn out to be psychos... then it appears that the problem is with you. 
yebat' Putin
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So what you're saying is that people who value pitcher wins are psycho?
What about good pitchers who are on bad offensive teams for most of their careers? They don't get as many wins, so they obviously aren't as good.
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So what you're saying is that people who value pitcher wins are psycho?
What about good pitchers who are on bad offensive teams for most of their careers? They don't get as many wins, so they obviously aren't as good.
Neither I, nor anybody else said it was the ONLY indicator, just one of several... and I will say that now that pitchers rarely go past the 6th or 7th inning, its become even less important.. but to dismiss it as totally irrelevant isn't right either.
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Quote:
Quote:
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but when taken over a longer period, a good winning percentage begins to mean something.
No it doesn't.
How does it not matter when taken individually, but when you add them up they now matter?
Because patterns develop over time. If you go out with a girl who turns out to be a psycho, then that's on her... if over 5 years you date 10 girls and 9 of them turn out to be psychos... then it appears that the problem is with you.
I have that problem. Any advice on a cure? Notice, not in purple.
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How do you guys feel about Carlos Santanas defense behind the plate this year? I am still believe he can be a stud.
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How do you guys feel about Carlos Santanas defense behind the plate this year? I am still believe he can be a stud.
overall vastly improved, but concerns:
1. too many brain farts. he'll make 3-4 great throws in a row and then the next one is 10feet off target. or he'll get lazy about blocking a ball and an easy one will get by him. again, still vastly improved.
2. how does he handle a pitching staff? how much was on him, how much on Radinsky and how much on the pitchers? i think all need some measure of blame (need to see breakdown of Marson v. Santana and how pitchers did comparatively).
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Barring a miraculous (by the Indians' standards) comeback, today's loss will make them sole proprietors of fourth place in the AL Central, 13 games under .500 and 11.5 back. Masterson got beat up pretty badly today. 7 runs in 5 2/3 innings...ouch.
A fourth-place finish should have some heads rolling, but I highly doubt it does.
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Jiminez is washed up man. I have no idea how a guy throws near 100 just 2 season ago, and now it's rare for him to hit mid 90's. his fastball is now 92 94. even last year when he faced Texas in his 1st appearance he got up to 98-99. I never have seen a loss of velocity over 2 years. Obviously the rockies knew something, you don't trade guys like Ubaldo's ability, especially with his contract, without knowing something. I thought it was a good trade, but this isn't the same guy that was pitching like a cy young, just 2 years ago.
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A fourth-place finish should have some heads rolling, but I highly doubt it does.
it's not just falling to 4th place either. we aren't even losing close games in this stretch. we are getting blown off the friggin field.
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Yeah... They look like a team that can't get to game 162 soon enough. Same thing as last season (kinda). Sad. 
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Second-worst record in the AL, fifth-worst in baseball, but the Dolans will continue to blame the fans and Antonetti will continue to talk about how there just isn't anyone available. The worst part is that people will continue to eat it up, too. This sad excuse for a team won't win 75 games this season, and will be lucky to win 70. That is 1000% unacceptable.
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who is eating it up? there are truthful bits to the fans not showing up even during contention times, but the FO has to make good moves to show they aren't inept.
as far as who should go after this season, I think Acta will need to leave. you cannot just get blown out in most games during a 4-18 slide that we are in right now and keep the manager.
and Antonetti should be shown the door too. I know he is handcuffed with alot, but NONE of his moves have worked out so far. the best move he can hang his hat on is that Carlos Pena turned down more money to go to TB and we signed Kotchman who has been better. We missed out narrowly on Willingham, Cuddyer and Cespedes (according to reports) and never filled the LF spot.
the only highlight on this team right now is that the low minors are flush with talent according to alot of reports (DiaTribe discusses Paulino who is absolutely tearing things up as a supposed 17yo from the Dominican). but, that means Bud Grant is doing his job.
if Antonetti somehow gets 1 more shot (1.5 seasons so far at the helm), then he needs to know that he's under the gun and that his trades and acquisitions better start bearing some fruit (again, none have thus far).
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Quote:
Jimenez peaked in the 1st half of 2010. His second half deteriorated. 2011 he continued to go down hill. We traded for him. He progressively worsened in 2011and has continued to worsen through out this season. He has shown nothing to suggest that there should be any hope for a turn around.
Proactive evaluators saw this coming before we traded for him.
And even so, it was worth the gamble.
The rotation is / was awful and the price was two rather unproven prospects at the MLB level.
Just look at their 2012 numbers:
Alex White: (2-6) w/ a 5.76 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in 14 starts.
Drew Pomeranz: (1-7) w/ a 4.87 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 14 starts.
And those are numbers in the National League! With a free out every 9 batters.
Maybe Ubaldo never gets on track but it certainly doesn't look like Cleveland is going to miss either one of the players included in the trade.
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From local media to the fan reaction, the majority opinion has been that we have to keep going to the games "to show our support" regardless of how we feel about ownership or the direction in which the team is headed. When Chris Perez called out "the fans", the reaction was overwhelmingly in support of what he was saying, if not necessarily the manner in which he said it. If I'm not mistaken, you were rather vocal that it's the duty if the fans to keep showing up and supporting the team.
Essentially it's a vote of support for the Dolans' position that they're just handcuffed if we don't come out in droves to watch the atrocious product that they match out day after day. As if they'll start signing All-Star after All-Star if only 40k people would show up so that they have the money. Meanwhile they make moves like making Grady Sizemore the second-highest paid player on the team.
We didn't "miss out" on Willingham. He wanted to come here and they made him a low-ball two-year offer. He wanted three. They didn't want to pony up a third year so he went to the Twins. And then when we had a chance to get him on the trading block we stayed put, waiting for Johnny Damon to turn it on.
This franchise has been mismanaged for years now and somehow everyone gets blamed except those responsible.
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just wish we would have gone after Gio Gonzalez instead.
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we did miss out on willingham for just the reasons you stated. you failed to mention that he was a bit of an injury risk candidate coming into this season who basically hit at the same rates as Hafner the past 3 years and played 15-20 more games per year. the FO was worried about risking a 3yr deal on such a player.
what he has done this year (becoming a hitting monster) was unexpected by even the biggest Josh-W fans. i don't know what the Twins wanted for him on the trading block (i didn't see his name much at the deadline).
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yes, when the team is in 1st place and we are 5K lower than anyone else in attendance, it is a bad sign. when you can go back to look at '05 - '08 (years when the team had good talent and was legit) and there isn't a big attendance spike during good years, then yes there is a problem.
but, the key here is that he FO has to show it has talent and that the moves it makes are good enough to compete too. otherwise the bigger problem (and the easier to fix) is the FO. Shapiro kept us afloat for years despite Mirabelli's ineptness at drafting by making key little trades that panned out (Choo, Asdrubal, Santana, etc.). every move that Antonetti has touched has turned to dog poop.
Bud Grant has alot of good things written about him and the college players he drafted high made MLB rosters quickly (Chisenhall, Kipnis, White, Pomeranz). 2 of those guys have struggled though (luckily the 2 that are not with us - not his fault who we got for them). But, he has yet to prove he can scout pitching. He has focused on very young, high upside in the draft and Int'l FA (Paulino is being touted as the best IFA since Hanley Ramirez). The problem is that leaves us bereft with talent in AA and AAA (from Mirabelli's years).
We'll see what happens as I doubt Shapiro leaves (and not sure he doesn't deserve to stay - he picked Antonetti but he should get one more shot to pick a successor), but Antonetti should be shown the door.
#gmstrong
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Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,521
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,521 |
In 2005, coming off a 3rd-place finish and their third consecutive losing season, they put up a .500 record through the first four months of the season. In 2006, they played .500 ball through the end of May before going -8 in the win column for June and -6 for July. 14 games under .500 at the start of August. They did their typical "too little too late" routine and finished with a 78-84 record. In 2007 attendance was low at the beginning of the season, which is to be expected considering how they'd finished four of the last five seasons. By the end of the season though the crowds were consistently in the mid-30k range. In 2008 they didn't post a winning record for a month until August. They also traded away the reigning CY Young winner.
Several years with a track record moderate starts only to fall off after the All Star break gives fans very little reason to get invested for the long haul. Until they give the fans a reason to do that, attendance will suffer and your crowds will in no small part comprise people who are looking for an evening of cheap entertainment, who got the tickets for free or who want to see one of the premier teams when they come to town.
One more thing that absolutely can't be discounted is that April and part of May are awful weather for going to a baseball game in Cleveland.
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