DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Let's talk wins and losses...

didn't feel this warranted it's own thread, but interesting.

in 2011, we scored a pathetic 21 TDs (16pass, 4rush, 1return, 0defense)
how many games will it take us in 2012 to surpass this total?



I think it will take 7-8 games (average of 3TDs per game + an extra).

i know it's optimistic. but, i am also thinking we'll get more than 1 return&defensive TD this season total. so, if we can mix a couple of those in the first half of the year as well, then that helps.

and, in such a small sample size, all it takes is one crazy DA v. Cinci game to mess up the stats enough to hit on it

Quote:

---

and, in such a small sample size, all it takes is one crazy DA v. Cinci game to mess up the stats enough to hit on it

---

In 4 years we have scored over 30 points, 6 times... and not at all last year.. we broke 40 once 3 years ago.... I think having a DA type game against Cincy would be such a statistical anomoly that it shouldn't really be considered.

However, if it does happen, I bet it is offset by a few sub 10 point games.

it's still July, so I refuse to accept any attempts at weighing me back down into reality on the matter

http://www.ohio.com/news/top-stories/bro...season-1.323752

Browns hope to defy predictions of another dismal season

By Nate Ulrich
Beacon Journal sports writer
August 1, 2012 - 12:23 AM

The Browns have lost at least 10 games in eight of the past nine seasons, so it’s natural to expect more despair this year.

Some national pundits certainly do.

Pro Football Talk listed the Browns 32nd out of 32 NFL teams in its preseason power rankings. And Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com predicted the Browns will finish the upcoming season with a record of 1-15.

Those doom-and-gloom projections were issued before the news about owner Randy Lerner selling the Browns to Tennessee billionaire Jimmy Haslam III broke last Friday. Human nature suggests the impending ownership change could distract players, coaches and executives, giving skeptics of the franchise yet another reason to forecast a dismal season.

The Associated Press Pro32 NFL Power Rankings, as voted by a 12-member panel, were released Tuesday. The Browns are No. 30 on the list.

Browns coach Pat Shurmur acknowledged that he’s aware of such predictions. Still, he downplayed the notion of using them to motivate his team, which went 4-12 last season.

“I’m not concerned with that,” said Shurmur, whose team was off Tuesday and will resume practice at 2 p.m. today. “My concern is the players, their mindset, winning football games and the fans of this community who can go to work on Monday and be proud because their team won. That’s what my concerns are.”

The players, though, don’t need Shurmur to point out how some outsiders view them. They already know.

“We like that,” wide receiver and special-teams ace Josh Cribbs said. “We’ve always been the underdog. Every team hates to lose to us, so they play timid when they play against us. We’re a good team this year. They say we’re gonna be last on every category. We’ll see when the game cuts on and the lights come on.”

For now, the Browns are guilty until proven innocent.

“It’s a cliché to say we’re overlooked, but based on our 4-12 record, rightfully so,” strong safety T.J. Ward said. “We know we’re a much better team — and we want to prove that.

“We know what we’re capable of. So, for all I care, it can be the biggest secret in the world. We’ll come out and surprise people.”

The Browns hope overhauling their offense — which finished 30th in scoring last season (13.6 points per game) — with two first-round draft picks and two second-round selections in the offseason is a legitimate cause for optimism. Running back Trent Richardson, quarterback Brandon Weeden and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz are expected to start right away. Wide receiver Josh Gordon is on track to play a significant role immediately and perhaps start.

“The excitement level is through the roof just because of our draft picks,” Cribbs said. “Everybody can’t wait for football season. It’s finally here, so the anticipation is growing. [The fans] just want to see us win. We want to see us win, and that’s all that matters — us winning. We’ve got the key components to do that — new quarterback, new running back. We’re a strong team more than ever right now.”

The players also believe a turnaround is realistic because they lost six games by seven or fewer points last season.

“If we had a few more plays last year, it would have been a tremendous leap,” cornerback Sheldon Brown said. “I can remember where we bluffed some snaps, missed some kicks and little things like that. You don’t realize it until you lose 11 or 12. But if you focus on the minute things that affect wins and losses, that you guys may not see, but we know inside internally that happens, then those losses turn to wins.”

However, close isn’t good enough. And with the sale of the team on the horizon, the pressure to win this year has been cranked up, though the players are determined to prevent it from becoming an issue.

“Nobody’s really worried,” Cribbs said. “It’s not likely the team will move or anything like that. As long as the Cleveland Browns have a football season, that’s all we care about. Why really worry about it? It’s behind closed doors. It’s business. It really has nothing to do with our play on the field. It has nothing to do with the season. It’s something that happens. It’s a part of the NFL, and it doesn’t affect the players at all.”

The bottom line is fulfilling those dreadful projections by regressing would be unacceptable — no matter who owns the team.

“I think it’s going to be a better season for us, and that record alone is enough of a motivator to improve,” linebacker Scott Fujita said. “What the prognosticators say and what all their predictions are, I think most of us are professional enough to block all that out.

“We were 4-12 last year. That’s not good enough. That’s embarrassing for a lot of us. So we have to make huge strides. We know that. We know this isn’t an easy division to move up the ladder in, but we’ve got to find a way to do it.” Browns hope to defy predictions of another dismal season Browns hope to defy predictions of another dismal season

I'm always optimistic this time of year, and always wrong in January. But here's why I think they can be a .500 team: Great offensive line, stud running back and solid defense. That's enough to be decent right there. There's a lot of reason to hope the passing game can be much improved, but forgetting that, they could be a tough, boring team.

I actually think that this is going to be a far more exciting team. I see far, far more explosive big plays on offense than last year. We couldn't score 14 last year. I suspect that we will get to the 19-22 PPG range this coming year.

We had 32 pass plays of 20+ yards last year on 570 pass attempts. Ugh. For comparison's sake, Andy Dalton had 48 pass plays of 20+ yards on 516 pass attempts. Joe Flacco had 44 on 542 pass attempts. Roethlisberger had a staggering 56 big pass plays of 20+ yards on 513 pass attempts.

This was a gaping hole in our offense last year. We could not create any kind of big plays on offense that would loosen the defense up one bit.

Looking at the run game, we had Hillis with 1 running play of 20+ yards last year. (after having 5 the year before) Hardesty had 1 big play running the ball. Ogbonnaya actually had 3 runs of 20+ yards.

This year we upgraded the RT position, and added the most dynamic runner in this year's draft. I expect, at least, 10 running plays of 20+ yards this year. I don't think that opposing defenses will be able to stack the box like they did last year.

Now some may wonder why my fascination with big plays. Well, big plays generally lead to scores. They also open things up underneath for everyone. However, if a team doesn't think that you can burn them, then they will never back off. We really didn't have anything working in either the running game or the passing game last year that would cause any defense to worry about being burned.

I am so excited about this coming year. I really believe that this is the foundation on which great teams will be built going into the future. We may need this year to start to put it all together, but I think that we are on our way.

I too am very excited about this team for the same reasons and the #1 reason as you said is big play ability. You are correct to bring those to the table. No body respected us last year and rightfully so.
This year could be an exciting time for us Browns fan's and if we can score an avg of 19-22 pts per game 8 wins is a very real possiblity.

I'll go with between 5 and 7 wins. I think we win 2 or 3 in the division, along with wins vs Buffalo, Indianapolis, Washington, and maybe KC. 7-9 would be a good turnaround year, and put us in position to be playoff contenders in '13.

I think that our defense will be exposed a bit more this year because teams will actually have to "try" to win games.

Last year teams could get a lead going into the half, score again on the 1st drive of the 2nd half, then coast with a low, low risk offense the rest of the way. I forget the exact number, but it was something like 8 or 9 games saw the opposing QB throw 10 or fewer passes after their first drive in the second half. Many of those passes were incomplete because QBs took no chances at all. "If a guy isn't wide open, then throw it away".

I look at games like the last Bengals game, where we were tied with 1:51 to go ....... and the Bengals drove 45 yards for the winning FG.

Then the Browns took over on their own 26, and gained 4 yards on 4 pass attempts.

Look at the week 13 game against the Ravens. The Ravens 1st drive following half time had 3 or 4 pass attempts. The rest of the game they threw 5 passes, completing 2, for 40 yards.

Teams will have to play us deeper into games if we improve our scoring. They won't just hand off 10 plays in a row while not caring if they even make a 1st down as long as they don't make mistakes.

I was intrigued about this team and this year until this week and from what I saw of Weeden over the last few days, I am very excited. I really felt he was going to come in and be the QB version of Brian Robiskie in being a finished product with no upside left in him. I was wrong.

He may never be successful but he has vastly improved. His body mechanics have been overhauled. He is playing with a wider base and is really putting his hips into the throw, generating much more pop and he did have a strong arm to start with. Hell just look at that throw Gocong was hurt on. Bad route by someone but a terrific throw to Cameron.

No wonder Heckert has that evil little smile when talking Weeden.

Our youth is going to be a two edged sword:

1. We'll probably lead the leagueKin boneheaded plays, pick 6s and INTs.

2. We'll have the most dynamic individual plays since 2007. Maybe since the late 80s.

Should be a frustrating and fun year.

j/c

I made a poll regarding the Browns record this season. I wanted to see how people were feeling before the preseason. I'll also make another after the preseason and see if there's any changes.


https://www.dawgtalkers.net/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=950744&page=0&vc=#Post950744

On the Steelers:

1. Did you see how many key players/tone setters they lost this year? A lot.
Ward, Farrior, Aaron Smith.....All over 36 years old...Ward was made a backup last year...and A. Smith has been out more games than he has played the last few years..and Farrior was becoming a liability...

2. New OC Todd Haley and a recommitment to the running game.
Dont you believe it...You don't take the ball out of a top 5 QB hands....they want to run better when they do run...not more often...Ben will be throwing it all over the place....Haley is putting in more quick hit and timing routes...should help keep Ben upright

3. Roethlisberger is getting older and he's susceptible to injury due to his trying to extend plays. He also has a rookie LT who's not the definition of work ethic.
Ben is two years older than your rookie QB.......Adams just got promoted to first string this week....Max Starks might overtake him when healthy...not sure yet, but Adams will surely have his rookie issues...but all things point to him doing well so far.

4. Mendenhall is out for a while and won't be 100 this year.
Don't sleep on Redman.

5. Polamalu's next concussion will be his 9th? Or close to it.
Troy is Troy.

6. Wallace is not getting paid and that has the potential to be a buzz kill.
Only to Wallace.....and everyone still thinks he will be there

7. Age is catching up with them at many positions.
Steelers players over 31

Troy P. 31 STARTER
Ryan Clark 32 STARTER
Larry Foote 32 STARTER
Bryon Leftwich 32
Ike Taylor 32 STARTER Cortez Allen, Curtis Brown, and Keenan Lewis
Brett Keisel 33 STARTER Ziggy Hood and Cam Heyward
Casey Hampton 34 STARTER Steve McLendon and Alameda Ta'amu
James Harrison 34 STARTER Here is where I am worried about depth
Charlie Batch 37

I think we're looking at an 8-8 season from them or worse.


HACK

Honest call Hack.

Hey Hack, you are a good fan and good poster. I don't get as involved as some with Hate Steelers and their fans. I'd hang with you any day of the week.

I think we'd have a good time tipping a few.

9 seasons' worth, really, when you factor in that Ben has played in 14 postseason games in his career.

You forgot to mention Rothlisberger's throwing shoulder rotator cuff that is tearing. What are the odds that he plays 12 games this year let alone 16?

The Steelers of old are either retired, concussed, currently injured, or aging and in decline. The new Steelers are beginning to take their place.

We shall see if its to remain the strong group of the past.

Inflated, 6-10 feels like the "realistically optimistic" pick with another 4-12 season being my gut cynical opinion. Despite what we have done, we have a tough schedule and key guys on D are injured. I think if we can go 6-10, win and lose some close battles or shootout's. Some true signs of progress, that can make those in the "wait til next year" crowd have some vindication. Show me more than the less than 14PPG we averaged last year. Richardson, Weeden, Gordon and Little, they're essential to our success.

Agreed as well. Hack has been posting here a long time, and he just talks football. Very knowledgeable, and defintely a great addition to the community here. And I will guess he will remain so in the event we ever manage to beat them in a game.

sigh

Were going to beat Pittsburgh twice. Cincy once. Indy, Wash, KC and Oakland are all winnable - we'll take 3 of 4 there. We will win one game between Buffalo and Denver and I'm thinking it will be Denver because Peyton might be injured and the Browns rookies will be better by December. We'll win one other game from one of our toughest games. I think that adds up to 8-8.

If the Browns sweep the Steelers this year...imo they make playoffs.


HACK

If we merely beat each team in the division one of two times, it'll be a small miracle and one of our best showings in the division in nearly a decade.
Anything beyond that is fully in the "pipe dream" category.

I didn't get to see any of the game....but after one preseason game have thoughts changed for the better/worse/or same


HACK

Pre-season 1 with 4 rookies starting on offense and a lot of people getting banged up during the game. Pretty much had no expectations although Weeden and the receivers clearly need to get on the same page. If there is one thing I am excited about it is Benjamin with Weeden's arm... Big play potential there.

I feel slightly more excited. I thought some good things happened. About what I thought we'd be........still wondering if/how/when TR will do to make the offense better. I am a little worried about Shwartz, but hey a rookie will look not so great at times. I still see us being a swing team......maybe go .500, but could also go better or worse. I agree that teams will run on us every game, all game. The danger with that is it will let us hang around. So hopefully we'll be luckier and better this year, and see some wins.

I haven't watched the Browns game yet, will see it tommorow but I feel better about the Browns chances.

Steelers OL is a major issue although I thought mixing in some sweeps, tosses, screens and quick hitters makes their offense much more dangerous. Again the OL was so bad, there is no way Ben is still playing when we see them if there isn't a major change there. Their issues weren't just chemistry and youth issues, it was stiff in the hips issues.

Bengals run game isn't nearly as potent with the Law Firm. Their issue however is a secondary that was beaten early and often last night but the jets QBs were either blind or incompetent. I think they are really going to have a lot of problems keeping these speedy receivers from beating them badly. They are strong in the trenches however.

Ravens won big but that defense would have given up 200 pts to Atlanta's first team if they had kept them in there. I know it was only game 1 in preseason but they have issues in both the run and pass.

Overall, Pitt is the only team that looks like they will be a hoss right out of the gate but their OL issues were glaring. I havent looked at their early schedule but if they get some pass rush happy teams early, big Ben will die.

Im really not even slightly worried right now about the OL....The Eagles base defense is the wide 9 where the ends play farther out than normal. There was ZERO practice prep to face this defense this week....you can bet there will be when they play them week 5

There was no TE or RB chip....both T's were on an island

Thats not to say that the Oline will not have issues...but they are on the verge of being very good IMO......Decastro and Adams get some reps...Willie Colon gets back in the line up at LG.....

We will see

HACK