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Just for fun. No wagering please. It's weird that both candidates seem convinced that their models are correct, and both are convinced that they are going to win. Also, let's try to just make our predictions without any of the "Are you out of your freakin' mind?????" arguments? (because I'm sure that a few people will look at some of mine and think just that)  OK ..... here are my predictions. Romney wins with between 288 and 301 electoral votes. He takes 49.7% of the popular vote. I just don't see undecided voters turning out for the incumbent in large numbers. I don't see them heading to the polls and trying to figure things out in the poll. Undecided usually break away from the incumbent. Plus, every poll says that voters see Romney as better on jobs, the economy, healthcare, and other issues that poll high on the list of voter concerns. I just don't see it breaking towards Obama when all of the indicators would seem to indicate an anti-incumbent mood for the Presidency. Obama wins on likability, but I don't know if that's enough. Obama gets between 196 and 209 electoral votes, and takes 48.2% of the popular vote. My guess, if I have to give a firm number, is Romney 295 - Obama 243. I have Ohio going to Romney, based largely on the lack of excitement I see for Obama this time around. Democrat early voting is down in Ohio this time around by a fairly significant margin, and Republican early voting is up significantly, Republicans tend to win election day voting, so I see that being the case this time around as well. My surprise state is PA going to Romney. I see Wisconsin being close, but going with Obama, despite the presence of Ryan on the ticket. I could see it flipping though .... based on the 2010 elections, and the recall elections that Republicans won, it wouldn't surprise me to see it go Romney ..... but I don't see it happening. The Democrats barely hold the Senate. I truly have no great feel for how this part will turn out. My gut says 51 D, 1 Independent, and 48 R ....... but who knows? I truly hate the idea of Harry Reid staying in power in the Senate .... but it seems like that's what's going to happen. The House stays firmly in Republican hands. When a party sweeps into power like the Republicans did last time, that usually means that they flipped a few districts that usually vote for one Party to the other. In that election, there were some more strongly D districts that went R. With this in mind, I see the Republicans losing maybe 3 or 4 seats ..... but maintaining a safe majority. One thing I hope we don't see is a months long fight with chads, voter intention, and all of the other crap we saw in 2000. Hopefully all of the individual states have wins that won't be close enough to be disputed. OK, make your best (educated, or uneducated) guesses, and let's see who is closest. Maybe I'll hit up GM and see if he will put up a Hall of Fame gold jacket as a prize. 
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Easy. Redskins rule. Over the last 72 years (18 elections), it's been right 17 times.
I put as much faith in that as I do any poll. (mainly because polls don't mean much).
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I just did my map at http://www.270towin.com/ and I have it coming out like you did. Except it's for Obama. I see the Dems still holding the Senate and Repubs holding the house. But with smaller margins in both. Popular vote is going to be very close. Too close to call.
KeysDawg
The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. - Carl Sagan
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.htmlthey show 201 firm Obama - 191 firm Romney with 146 within margin for error. I have yet to see a poll that gives Ohio to Romney though. Same with Michigan, PA and Wisconsin. If you give him Florida, he still needs North Carolina and Virginia pretty badly to have a shot. Even then and if he squeaks out Iowa and Colorado, he's still coming up short (NV, NH also mildly strong on Obama).
#gmstrong
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I predict an Obama victory. It will be close but Obama nudges it out.
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Obama by the slightest of margins.
We also won't know who our President is for several days.
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I know that if Obama wins, I look to become an expat American.
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I know that if Obama wins, I look to become an expat American.
And so it begins.
I could see it go either way. I give Obama the incumbent edge, but I wouldn't bet money on it.
Either way, it will be amusing.
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Winner: The bloated dual party political machine
Loser: The American people
And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir
#GMSTRONG
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I don't like either candidate but I would not vote for Obama under any circumstance - even threat of death.
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Obama wins 303-235. Also wins popular vote 51 to 48. Democrats get Senate, Republicans the House.
I think the people who think Romney will win think so because of their own bias, not because of any analytically approach. Obama can lose Ohio and Virginia and still win. I would honestly be shocked if Romney won. It would have to be the biggest national polling mistake in the history of presidential elections (even moreso than the Dewey/Truman fiasco).
Also Arch, one of the "rules" will be broken this year.
The Redskins Rule: Romney wins
Halloween mask: Obama wins
Scholastic Election: Obama
Vigo County, IN: unknown
Summer Olympics: Obama
Oscars: The Artist has a happy ending (IMO) so apparently Obama.
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Popular vote is 50/50, Obama crushes in EC.
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I'm by no means an expert, not that the supposed experts get it right all the time or anything, but I suspect Obama takes it again.
Much Much closer margin this time as Romney is about as close to a liberal as a conservative can get LOL
Anyway... It's Obama.
But the big winner is us. NO MORE FREAKING COMMERCIALS...LOL
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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Quote:
Winner: The bloated dual party political machine
Loser: The American people
285-253 Romney
I think there are A LOT of independant/conservative voters out there that aren't as outspoken as their liberal counterparts and will be showing up in very large numbers. I've already voted for Romney as I am out of town for work currently.
Another prediction - if Obama wins everyone's retirement accounts takes a massive hit on Wednesday.
Should be an interesting day tomorrow.
Last edited by columbusdawg; 11/05/12 09:45 PM.
#gmstrong
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Easy. Redskins rule. Over the last 72 years (18 elections), it's been right 17 times.
I put as much faith in that as I do any poll. (mainly because polls don't mean much).
Does the Redskins rule take into account if BOTH the QB and Incumbent are black?
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
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Quote:
Obama wins 303-235. Also wins popular vote 51 to 48. Democrats get Senate, Republicans the House.
I think the people who think Romney will win think so because of their own bias, not because of any analytically approach. Obama can lose Ohio and Virginia and still win. I would honestly be shocked if Romney won. It would have to be the biggest national polling mistake in the history of presidential elections (even moreso than the Dewey/Truman fiasco).
Also Arch, one of the "rules" will be broken this year.
The Redskins Rule: Romney wins
Halloween mask: Obama wins
Scholastic Election: Obama
Vigo County, IN: unknown
Summer Olympics: Obama
Oscars: The Artist has a happy ending (IMO) so apparently Obama.
November 6th Presidential Election: Romney(Republican) wins.
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](http://i.imgur.com/FUKyw.png) "Don't be burdened by regrets or make your failures an obsession or become embittered or possessed by ruined hopes"
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I was kind of thinking Willard might get the popular vote, but will lose the electorate
I think Ohio will be closer this time around but Barry will get it just due to the demograpics of a state that has three urban areas that control the states electoral college votes.
Either way, i will be so happy to have this debacle over.
You may be in the drivers seat but God is holding the map. #GMSTRONG
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Winner: citizens of Ohio who like to watch television
Loser: advertising salespeople at television stations
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Seems too close to call. Perhaps a slight edge to Obama but I wouldn't be surprised if the based is rallied up enough over a "red scare" that Romney ended up POTUS. My surprise, wildcard prediction would be that the Green Party takes more than a full percentage point of the election. Outside of the GOP/Dems, two to four percent get the "other" check.
Politicians are puppets, y'all. Let's get Geppetto!
Formerly 4yikes2yoshi0
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Quote:
Obama wins 303-235.
Cleveland Browns, Space Browns ![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/iVP5Po2.png)
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I predict one of these clowns will narrowly win and absolutely nothing will change because of it. We will have flushed as much as $5.8 BILLION down the proverbial toilet to elect another batch of clueless idealogues into the presidency and Congress who will fail (miserably) to address ANY of the serious issues this country faces because they will be too busy raising MORE money for the NEXT campaign to do the job we elected them to do.
No matter who wins, America will come out the loser. Again.
[color:"white"]"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
-- Mark Twain [/color]
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I also heard something on TV, and I have no idea how true it is, but they said that Republicans are less likely to answer polls. (they hang up)
I know that I have hung up on at least 40 polls without answering them, and since I am closest to the Republican party, there may be some truth to it. Further, the machines would have no way of knowing which way I am going to vote, because I am registered Independent.
Anyway .... should be an interesting night tomorrow night. There are going to be some pollsters and pundits who are going to be really, really wrong.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
I predict one of these clowns will narrowly win and absolutely nothing will change because of it. We will have flushed as much as $5.8 BILLION down the proverbial toilet to elect another batch of clueless idealogues into the presidency and Congress who will fail (miserably) to address ANY of the serious issues this country faces because they will be too busy raising MORE money for the NEXT campaign to do the job we elected them to do.
No matter who wins, America will come out the loser. Again.
+1
#gmstrong
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Quote:
Quote:
I predict one of these clowns will narrowly win and absolutely nothing will change because of it. We will have flushed as much as $5.8 BILLION down the proverbial toilet to elect another batch of clueless idealogues into the presidency and Congress who will fail (miserably) to address ANY of the serious issues this country faces because they will be too busy raising MORE money for the NEXT campaign to do the job we elected them to do.
No matter who wins, America will come out the loser. Again.
+1
Can we just stop voting for these clowns already? The American public needs to step out of their comfort zone and enact real change. Relying on our two parties are not doing it. Of course, both sides do have gems, but they never seem to be included in the big dance and we just continue to vote for one over the other because the other does not fit our ideology and we are too frightened and cowardly to step up and try to change things.
Of course, if you truly like Obama or Romney, by all means vote for them. But I'm getting sick and tired after every election hearing people complain about how we had no choice but to vote for either one of the bad choices and hope that next time the product will be better, especially when they are the ones who continue us down the same path. The product is not going to get better when we keep voting for the same product.
"Don't be burdened by regrets or make your failures an obsession or become embittered or possessed by ruined hopes"
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I tend to believe in people who can do statistics correctly.
Either every poll is systematically biased in the same way, or Obama will win.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God." Leviticus 19:33-34
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I'm predicting Obama by the slimmest of margins. After their first debate, I think Romney would have taken it. I base my prediction on a few factors that I feel are "The Deciders".  After a very weak showing in the first debate, Obama came on to at least break even in the last two. Romney has really turned off the Latino vote. Over 1 million American born Latinos have been added to the voting roles since 2008. Sandy hitting the east coast shown Obama as a good president and kind of took the spotlight off Romney for a few days kind of killing his momentum. The Obama/ Christie love fest. GOP politicians restricting early voting hours. It gives a very negative light in the press especially in important swing states like Florida and Ohio. I'm not saying these factors should decide the election. I'm not saying the perception on these issues is the reality. I just honestly believe this election was too close to call before these latest events of Sandy and the press is having a field day with the restrictions on early voting. Many in this country have a lot of reservations about the integrity of voting in Florida already and I think the GOP did itself a huge injustice by taking on this one the early voting issue. It's very easy to spin that into looking like they are trying to restrict people's right to vote no matter if that's true or not. In an election this close, it's the small things towards the end of them that can decide the whole shooting match. And I'm not saying that's a good thing either....
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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I honestly think that the media coverage of people suffering in the wake of Sandy will take away any good visions of Obama. When you see people saying stuff like "Please President Obama, we need help or we're going to die", it tends to take away the idea that the President is doing everything he can to help save those people. The coverage hasn't been as slanted as the Katrina coverage was, but the networks have still covered it. I think that blunts the impact of Obama "looking Presidential".
It will be interesting to see which pollsters and pundits are right, and which are completely wrong.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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You know, I would have thought the same thing accept for how Christie seemd so sincere in his appreciation for Obama's help. I think it's kinda hard to take the wind out of Obama's sails on that one with a GOP gov. taking that approach. We'll see soon enough and I'll be SO GLAD when it's over!!! All of these political TV ads are killing me from both sides and my waste basket is overflowing from flyers in the mail! I love living in Ohio...... accept for presidential election years!
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
#gmstrong
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Per a prize, I'll send the winner a Nike Browns t-shirt. Ytown, PM me with the winner and I'll get his/her shirt preference, size, and address. I used to do it with the draft signing contest we used to have, why not with something just a little bigger  I have 282-256 Obama. I think popular vote will be just as close, but with the slight edge to Romney. I also think that it won't be over tomorrow, I've read several rumors of both sides lawyering up. I expect it will be controversial as 2000 was.
Last edited by clwb419; 11/06/12 02:22 AM.
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Quote:
I predict an Obama victory. It will be close but Obama nudges it out.
I'll play I see an Obama land slide victory the only reason the media is saying its close to scare the Obama votes to get out and actually vote. This is a no contest imho. I'm torn Rom is a jack and Oby is a muck up neither seems to even care about what is happening to this country. Then again that has been the norm for a long time. 
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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Oh, if there is a T-shirt at risk, then I'll go with the following:
From 301-330 electoral votes for Obama. The exact number depending on which direction Florida goes(i.e. 330-208 if Obama wins Florida, 301-237 otherwise). I expect there to be a recount in Florida, but it won't affect the national election.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God." Leviticus 19:33-34
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The first votes are in from Dixville Notch, NH are in, and Romney and Obama are tied at 5 votes each.
That's the first time this has happened in their history.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
I predict one of these clowns will narrowly win and absolutely nothing will change because of it. We will have flushed as much as $5.8 BILLION down the proverbial toilet to elect another batch of clueless idealogues into the presidency and Congress who will fail (miserably) to address ANY of the serious issues this country faces because they will be too busy raising MORE money for the NEXT campaign to do the job we elected them to do.
No matter who wins, America will come out the loser. Again.
Couldn't agree more thanks for saving me some typing.
I AM ALWAYS RIGHT... except when I am wrong.
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Quote:
Obama wins 303-235. Also wins popular vote 51 to 48. Democrats get Senate, Republicans the House.
I think this is pretty close to what will happen.
I think the networks/pundits want a close election because that means better ratings/higher viewership. So they've been pumping that for weeks. But it won't be nearly as close as they've been telling us.
But honestly, no matter who wins does anyone really think that much will change?
I also love the guys that claim they're leaving if a certain candidate wins. You know what I say? Don't let the door hit ya in the ass on your way out......
"People who drink light 'beer' don't like the taste of beer; they just like to pee a lot."
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Obama wins the EC, too close to call in the popular vote... Next 6 weeks are spent in and out of courts. Obama declared the winner in December.
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Quote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
they show 201 firm Obama - 191 firm Romney with 146 within margin for error.
I have yet to see a poll that gives Ohio to Romney though. Same with Michigan, PA and Wisconsin. If you give him Florida, he still needs North Carolina and Virginia pretty badly to have a shot. Even then and if he squeaks out Iowa and Colorado, he's still coming up short (NV, NH also mildly strong on Obama).
ok, now that there's a prize involved, I better add up what I said 
Obama: 201 + MI, OH, PA, WI, NV, NH
Romney: 191 + FL, NC, VA
Complete tossups: Iowa, Colorado. I'll give Iowa to Obama, Colorado to Romney.
Final Tally:
Obama = 281
Romney = 257
#gmstrong
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Quote:
The Redskins Rule: Romney wins
Halloween mask: Obama wins
Scholastic Election: Obama
Vigo County, IN: unknown
Summer Olympics: Obama
Oscars: The Artist has a happy ending (IMO) so apparently Obama.
Alabama vs. LSU - Obama wins
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Quote:
Can we just stop voting for these clowns already? The American public needs to step out of their comfort zone and enact real change. Relying on our two parties are not doing it. Of course, both sides do have gems, but they never seem to be included in the big dance and we just continue to vote for one over the other because the other does not fit our ideology and we are too frightened and cowardly to step up and try to change things.
I agree. I've written in candidates for president since 2000. This year I'll probably write in Huntsman. I was very excited when he announced he was running and really disappointed when he bowed out early.
[color:"white"]"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
-- Mark Twain [/color]
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