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Obama wins the EC, too close to call in the popular vote... Next 6 weeks are spent in and out of courts. Obama declared the winner in December.
We were talking about this last night (we meaning my wife and I and our neighbors). Sitting around, having some adult beverages. After hours of this, we came to the same conclusion., At the end of the night tonight, we are almost certain NOT to have an answer as to who won.
Unless by some miracle it's a landslide for one of them and I don't know of anyone predicting that.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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I also heard something on TV, and I have no idea how true it is, but they said that Republicans are less likely to answer polls. (they hang up)
Because they are too busy working to pay taxes to support the democrats spending all their time on the phone polls.   
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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I predict that if the candidate I want to win wins, then the polling models my candidate used were correct.
If the other candidate wins, the fix was in.
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Quote:
Quote:
I also heard something on TV, and I have no idea how true it is, but they said that Republicans are less likely to answer polls. (they hang up)
Because they are too busy working to pay taxes to support the democrats spending all their time on the phone polls.
No, it's because democrats are so excited to use their new obamaphones that they'll talk to anyone. 
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A FAKE Tim Tebow Twitter last night posted...
"I'm predicting Obama gets out to an early lead tomorrow ... Until all the Republicans get off work."
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J/C. Just for giggles this morning, I created an "exit poll" on Survey Monkey and posted it to facebook. I thought it'd be interesting to see how that vote stood up to the popular vote and electoral college. It is a private vote, so I can't see who voted for whom. Please feel free to spend 30 seconds and "vote" on it, and feel free to share it. I'd love to have a few hundred "votes" by the end of the day. So far, 18 votes, 13 for Obama and 5 for Romney, 0 for Other Candidate, and 0 for "Did not vote" http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/86PCYCL
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I wanna know how many people voted for Rosanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan. 
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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I can add them to the poll
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Legend
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Just a comment from the YTown area:
Last night there were about 300 or so people downtown to vote. That's less than a single day in the last election. I saw video of the early voting election sites in the last Presidential election, and there were hundreds and hundreds lined up around buildings. Not I'm sure that early absentee voting blunted some of that, but I don't think that it was a huge part of the vote in this area.
The news went around to some of the area polling places today. No lines. The biggest poll in Boardman had about 300 people through at noon. No lines. There doesn't seem to be massive turnout today, and this is a super heavy Democrat area.
I did hear that turnout in Cleveland was heavy, but heard no estimates.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I'm so glad to live in a state that votes by mail. I sent my ballot in last week. No lines. No hassle. Today there are ballot drop off sites all over the city. No need to get out of your car. Just pull up and drop it off. So easy.
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They have had the news people all around down here. (Well, not in the Keys, we're the red headed step kids to the media, but in Miami and Lauderdale). And there have been lines down the block and around the corner for about a week now. At 7 this morning there was a 2 hour wait to get in at some places. Miami and Ft Lauderdale are very heavily democratic districts.
KeysDawg
The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. - Carl Sagan
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Quote:
I'm so glad to live in a state that votes by mail. I sent my ballot in last week. No lines. No hassle. Today there are ballot drop off sites all over the city. No need to get out of your car. Just pull up and drop it off. So easy.
+1
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They said on the radio here that Cleveland wasn't near as heavy as the last presidential election so far. They said some heavily Republican areas in Cincinnati were seeing record numbers. It's a long day and this one is going to be pretty close. Too close for me to even guess at a prediction.
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That's interesting. It was really weird this time around, in that there were very few yard signs between the 2 candidates ...... almost a 50/50 split this time ...... and a lot of "issue" signs without what would normally be a corresponding candidate sign. I'm so hyed for this election that I'm gonna go take a nap.  I feel pretty confident that Obama is gonna be a one termer.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I was in and out in 20 minutes this morning.
Not sure Obama is even on the ballot in Oklahoma.
#GMSTRONG
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Quote:
They have had the news people all around down here. (Well, not in the Keys, we're the red headed step kids to the media, but in Miami and Lauderdale). And there have been lines down the block and around the corner for about a week now. At 7 this morning there was a 2 hour wait to get in at some places. Miami and Ft Lauderdale are very heavily democratic districts.
Here in Fort Myers, there's been a steady 2-3 hour wait at the early voting, and this morning I arrived 20 mins early at my station and it still took me 50 mins from when they opened the doors, and the line had trippled in size as I came out.
A co-worker stood in line saturday for early voting for 5 hours.
We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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That is going to hurt Obama's chances in Florida. His supporters don't wanna work for 8 hours in a day, I don't think they'll stand in a line for a couple hours to vote.
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Why not? More time in line = less time at work.
That's a joke, btw.
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Legend
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Quote:
They have had the news people all around down here. (Well, not in the Keys, we're the red headed step kids to the media, but in Miami and Lauderdale). And there have been lines down the block and around the corner for about a week now. At 7 this morning there was a 2 hour wait to get in at some places. Miami and Ft Lauderdale are very heavily democratic districts.
They were saying on NPR this morning that the newspapers were reporting the Miami area may not have enough ballots.
Reminds me of when Kent State had only two polling booths.
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Legend
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j/c
I got my Romney vote it... even though I wanted Paul
Meh.
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lol, mission accomplished I guess.
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I predict that no matter who wins, we're screwed.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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I predict that no matter who wins, we're screwed.
+1
I'll add that whoever is elected will be thrashed by 50% of America, while the other 50% tell us all how much of a savior he is. Meanwhile our gaze will be drawn towards these puppets while the real 'leaders' of this country pilfer our coffers behind the scenes.
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j/c.. Nat Silver Nate Silver has it 313-225 Obama. However, he's got Obama with a 50.3% chance to win Florida. A virtual coin flip. If Romney can take Florida, and steal Virginia and Colorado, you could be looking at 276-262 Romney. I think Obama squeezes it out. I'll take Silver to be right on every state but Florida and it ends up 284-254.
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[color:"white"]"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
-- Mark Twain [/color]
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All I know is, whatever happens, you can't blame me, I voted Weeden/Richardson.
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Quote:
j/c..
Nat Silver
Nate Silver has it 313-225 Obama.
However, he's got Obama with a 50.3% chance to win Florida. A virtual coin flip.
If Romney can take Florida, and steal Virginia and Colorado, you could be looking at 276-262 Romney.
I think Obama squeezes it out. I'll take Silver to be right on every state but Florida and it ends up 284-254.
BTW - that's not how Nate Silver's polling works - if he has 50.3% Obama in florida, then Obama has 50.3% of the electoral votes from Florida. The average electoral votes is given by the mean from his million election simulations.
If you take Silver's map, and then give Romney Florida, Virginia, Colorado, then Obama wins 292-246
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qorwrwr0nr0orwnxq
For Romney to win (changing states from Silver's map) you have to give Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Iowa to Romney.
Last edited by Lyuokdea; 11/06/12 05:54 PM.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God." Leviticus 19:33-34
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How do you vote for the things, when there are candidates and you don't know anything about either one.
Oh sure, we can all have a favorite for , President, or senate, ... or whatever, but here, we have to vote for judges and what not, and , well unless I stand before one, I don't know anythign about these people.
Don't expect me to beleive you know all about every candidate either.
So What do you do?
I leave alot of them blank. but the others.
I vote by first name. The Candidates first name, if , in my experience I've known someone else with that first name and they were a (bad word) , compared to someone else with that same first name who seemed to be nice and have common sense.
Well I vote for the candidate with the first name of someone who I liked.
Does anyone else vote by firstname?
Do you think this is an outrage, or idiocy, well, .... that's what I do, and you can't stop me. ( yet)
What wierd things do you do to pick a candidate, ... like for county animal carcase removal comissioner?
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Quote:
Quote:
j/c..
Nat Silver
Nate Silver has it 313-225 Obama.
However, he's got Obama with a 50.3% chance to win Florida. A virtual coin flip.
If Romney can take Florida, and steal Virginia and Colorado, you could be looking at 276-262 Romney.
I think Obama squeezes it out. I'll take Silver to be right on every state but Florida and it ends up 284-254.
BTW - that's not how Nate Silver's polling works - if he has 50.3% Obama in florida, then Obama has 50.3% of the electoral votes from Florida. The average electoral votes is given by the mean from his million election simulations.
Why would he calculate it by that method when that's not how the electoral college works? 
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:
Quote:
j/c..
Nat Silver
Nate Silver has it 313-225 Obama.
However, he's got Obama with a 50.3% chance to win Florida. A virtual coin flip.
If Romney can take Florida, and steal Virginia and Colorado, you could be looking at 276-262 Romney.
I think Obama squeezes it out. I'll take Silver to be right on every state but Florida and it ends up 284-254.
BTW - that's not how Nate Silver's polling works - if he has 50.3% Obama in florida, then Obama has 50.3% of the electoral votes from Florida. The average electoral votes is given by the mean from his million election simulations.
If you take Silver's map, and then give Romney Florida, Virginia, Colorado, then Obama wins 292-246
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qorwrwr0nr0orwnxq
No. If you look over on the side, it says, "50.3% chance of Obama win"
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Quote:
Why would he calculate it by that method when that's not how the electoral college works?
He doesn't.
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That's how you calculate means from integer inputs?
e,g. the mean dice roll is a 3.5 - it is of course, impossible to roll a 3.5 - but that is how mean is defined.
What is more interesting is the percentage of simulations which Obama wins, which is right around 91%
Last edited by Lyuokdea; 11/06/12 05:55 PM.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God." Leviticus 19:33-34
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Quote:
Quote:
Why would he calculate it by that method when that's not how the electoral college works?
He doesn't.
He does - if I take Silver's map and give everything with a Blue color to Obama, and everything with a red color to Romney - then Obama wins 332-206
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqwr0nr0orwn0q
Fixed because topdawg pointed out I missed Indiana
Last edited by Lyuokdea; 11/06/12 06:23 PM.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God." Leviticus 19:33-34
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You still have Indiana blue.
And I'm not sure, but that makes zero sense to me. Why would it say 50.3% to win, if that's now how he's doing it?
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Quote:
You still have Indiana blue.
And I'm not sure, but that makes zero sense to me. Why would it say 50.3% to win, if that's now how he's doing it?
Sorry missed that, should be 332-206.
The number he's showing is the average number of electoral votes Obama gets in the million simulations he's done (using the above percentages for each state). He's not predicting Obama wins Florida, he's saying that in 50.3% of his simulations, Obama will win Florida, and Romney will win 49.7% of the time (that's about as much as a toss-up as is possible).
So some of these random simulations have obama winning 340-198. Some have Romney winning 280-258, etc. etc. Average all those numbers together and you get 313-225, with a standard deviation of +/- 48 on the winner's votes.
You can also count up the number of simulations that has Obama winning (or Romney winning) and it is 90.9% to 9.1%.
"When a foreigner resides among you in your land, do not mistreat them. The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God." Leviticus 19:33-34
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J/C
298-240 Obama.
Obama gets Ohio but Romney gets FL and PA.
Sherrod Brown beats Mandel.
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Mini Ditkas 350 - Packers 188
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From Drudge:
Exit polls show the youth vote the same as 2008, Latino vote up.
2008 numbers holding the same in age and race and party affiliation.
So the models on the last election appear correct.
Other notes that I have seen so far:
% White vote for the 5th straight election will fall another percent or 2 down to just above 70%.
Latino vote for George Bush was about 40%. John Mccain lost by about 36%. Exit polls today from what was on CBS showed Romney's Latino vote in the mid 20 and 2 separate polls show Romney losing the Latino vote by roughly 45%
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Quote:
Mini Ditkas 350 - Packers 188
+1
Nice.
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Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Make Your Election Predictions
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