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Saves, like wins, are awful at telling the story of how a player is actually performing. A player can come in with a three run lead, give up two runs, and still get a save. In any other situation that would be a failure, but because he gets a "save" it is a success.

Perez is an average reliever who, as a result of when he is brought in the game, gets lots of saves.

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There was an interesting poll on cleveland.com this past week right after the blown save vs Detroit last Monday:


Which Cleveland Indians closer would you pick to finish off a big game?

Doug Jones 39.92% (1,161 votes)

Jose Mesa 26.48% (770 votes)

Bob Wickman 23.62% (687 votes)

Chris Perez 9.97% (290 votes)

Total Votes: 2,908

**********

Before Monday's game he would probably have finished higher, if not at the top.

(P.S. I voted for Mesa. God help me.)

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How can you have a credible poll without Joe Borowski?

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Of that list my top 2 would be Jones and Wickman.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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At the risk that you are being sarcastic, the poll was based on guys with career saves over 100. Borowski had 46. Plus, he was excruciating to watch ... it was like a root canal every time he pitched.

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Quote:

Saves, like wins, are awful at telling the story of how a player is actually performing. A player can come in with a three run lead, give up two runs, and still get a save. In any other situation that would be a failure, but because he gets a "save" it is a success.

Perez is an average reliever who, as a result of when he is brought in the game, gets lots of saves.




Yes, and no.

Closers are a breed that takes immense pressure day after day. Sure they might get a game where they come in with a 3 run game, but they are also just as likely to come in damn close to being cold after their offense gets them a 1 run lead in the top of the 9th. Besides, fans usually don't remember when a "regular" reliever blows a game by giving up 4 runs in the 8th inning to take the loss ...... but let a closer give up 2 runs to blow the save, and they are dodging pitchforks and hellfire, and the fans can tell you exactly what happened 3 weeks later. It's a whole different ballgame.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I always like Dave LaRoche and Jim Kern.

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Quote:

Closers are a breed that takes immense pressure day after day.




I would argue that the guy who comes in the game in the 8th inning with two men on and no outs is under more pressure.

Quote:

but they are also just as likely to come in damn close to being cold after their offense gets them a 1 run lead in the top of the 9th.




Pitchers are generally given plenty of time to warm-up. If a guy is coming in cold someone is doing something wrong.

Quote:

Besides, fans usually don't remember when a "regular" reliever blows a game by giving up 4 runs in the 8th inning to take the loss ...... but let a closer give up 2 runs to blow the save, and they are dodging pitchforks and hellfire, and the fans can tell you exactly what happened 3 weeks later. It's a whole different ballgame.




Players that are that mentally fragile don't make it to the majors. They are weeded out in the minors. If you can pitch in the 8th inning, you can pitch in the 9th inning. You really think they are worried about what the fans think of them?

It's literally the same ballgame.

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Do you think that relievers are up and down from year to year strictly because of physical issues? I don't.

There are guys who are spectacular one year, and then can't see to get a guy out the next. They get traded, and suddenly they are unhittable again,Someone said that run blocking was 70% attitude on another thread .... well relievers are probably 50% - 90% mental. They blow up, they recover, and they are amazingly inconsistent.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Like I said, if you are a basket case as you are describing, then you probably never make it to the majors.

Pitching is pitching. Relief pitchers performances are so volatile because we rely on small sample sizes to show how good they are.

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That's not the case though. Relievers implode and revive their careers fairly regularly.

Many relief pitchers, (especially if they can throw left handed) are really inconsistent. So many knock around the Majors because teams always need relief pitchers, and many teams see a guy's stuff and think that they can fix him.

I think that middle relievers are probably the flakiest guys on a Major League roster. They can implode, and recover, at any time.Hell, look back over some of our own relievers who have been great one year, then had to be demoted from a role the next year, or even traded away, because they couldn't perform anymore. Then they recover the next year.

I think that it was terry Pluto who wrote a really good articly on this very subject a few months ago. I wish I could find it because he did more research than I care to do.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I'm not sure how this is argument supports Perez.

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It was actually in response to the part about "mentally weak" players.

Back to closers ..... I something think that it's worse for a closer to come in with a 3 run lead, because it's almost like they relax and give u a run or 2 because of it.

I do think that Perez has something physically wrong with him this year. His velocity has been so up and down, that it almost has to be the case.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:

because it's almost like they relax and give u a run or 2 because of it.




If that's true, then that player shouldn't have a spot on the roster.

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Perez's numbers indicate a pitcher who has been average for most of his career. Nothing has changed.

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Alright, I'm going on a rant... (feel free to ignore)

There are definitely some disappointments thus far. Swisher being THE biggest one. Myers getting $7 mil to be injured is another. Reynolds and his $6mil deal getting released can also be added to the list. I'm not writing off Swisher and his contract yet, but Chris Antonetti has pissed away nearly $15million in contracts for Myers/Reynolds similarly to what he did in 2012 with one year contracts/trades for players like Sizemore (5mil), Lowe (5mil), Kotchman (3mil). In my opinion, there needs to be some pressure and accountability placed by the fans towards the GM's office. Since CAs been in charge...we've authorized the burning of tens of millions. I know people want to immediately hate the ownership for a lack of spending money, but when they chose to do so, these big contracts have failed miserably. Antonetti is becoming known for making poor offseason deals and little in-season deals come the trade deadline. It's frustrating to say the least.

Francona takes some heat from me as well. Outside of him keeping starting pitchers in far too long than they need to be (a prior rant), I personally think our lineup is in complete disarray. Switching spots of Swisher for Cabrera? Are you serious? I was against this move the minute it happened and was against Swisher batting 4th the day he was signed. Both Santana and Brantley provide more production than Swisher ever will at this point in his career. Cabrera has also been a major disappointment who, for whatever reason, thinks he is a long ball hitter. His value has dropped consistently since 2010 or 2011. I can't remember the good year he had.

Anyways, here is my recommended daily lineup.

Bourn
Cabrera
Kipnis
Santana (DH)
Brantley
Swisher
Gomes (C)
Chisenhall
Stubbs

These DAILY lineup changes Francona is compelled to do have really effected the team, I think. Surely, against a dominant LHP stack it with righties and vice-versa. But with Francona, each day provides a different lineup structure. How can players like...

--Brantley get in a grove when he's batted in 8 of 9 positions in the order THIS YEAR? OR

--Santana who rotates, DH, C, 1B every other day and will hit anywhere from 4-7? OR

--Having a rookie in Chisenhall that we play twice a week who supposedly "needs more at-bats" at the major league level to see his worth. OR

-- Batting Rayburn (who I know has been playing well) ahead of Santana and Brantley on occasion. That's crazy.

-- Yes, Terry. Giambi was a great player. That doesn't mean you need to DH him every other time a RHP is starting....he's batting .200 at best.

There is zero consistency to this lineup in any way, thus no environment of regularity for the players. What ever happened to the Mike Hargrove lineups that only changed on Sundays and double-headers?

Again, sorry for the rant.


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Hitters should be able to hit no matter where they are in the lineup. The Rays, and Joe Maddon, constantly change lineup positions.

There is no way Cabrera and his sub-.300 OBP should be batting second. I would bat Kipnis 2nd.

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Quote:

Hitters should be able to hit no matter where they are in the lineup. The Rays, and Joe Maddon, constantly change lineup positions.

There is no way Cabrera and his sub-.300 OBP should be batting second. I would bat Kipnis 2nd.




I don't necessarily disagree with you about Cabrera, but who else is fits the profile of being a legit #2 batter in the lineup? Kipnis would be a good argument but has much better production that makes a difference before your cleanup hitter. Would you switch Kipnis and Cabrera? And someone like Brantley behind a power hitter protects he makes good contact and gets on base..Said power hitter may get more strikes because the pitcher knows how much contact Brantley can make after him. If guys are already on base, it exacerbates the issue for the pitcher. He protects the guy in front of him.

But honestly, Cabrera batting 2nd is almost a default spot for me. I don't know where else you'd put him if hitting is all the same for you. He does put the ball in play and that can make a difference when someone like Bourn is on base, and in and some instances, Stubbs too if he starts off an inning. Either way, he is becoming a concern. I wouldn't bat him 4th is the point of my previous point.

You don't like Cabrera at batting second. OK, where would you put him?


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An ideal lead off hitter would be a high OBP guy with speed. Bourn or Brantley would fit that role pretty well, so I would have one of them lead off.

Bourne/Brantley

I would then bat Kipnis second as it would maximize his at-bats with men on base.

Brantley/Bourn
Kipnis

Batting third/fourth I would have either Swisher or Santana, the teams two best power hitters. They would have a good chance of batting with someone on base and have the power to drive many guys on base in. (I would play Santana at catcher where his bat is well above average).

Brantley/Bourn
Kipnis
Santana/Swisher
Santana/Swisher

Lately Raburn has been the Indians best hitter, but he doesn't have the track record of Santana or Swisher, so I would bat him fifth against RHP and third against LHP (moving down the Santana/Swisher spot down one each). He is a below average fielder so I would have him DH.

Brantley/Bourn (LF/CF)
Kipnis (2B)
Santana/Swisher (C/1B)
Santana/Swisher (C/1B)
Raburn (DH)

After Raburn I would try and get the best remaining batters the most at-bats possible. That would be Bourn or Brantley, then Cabrera, then Chisenhall, and then Stubbs.

Brantley/Bourn (LF/CF)
Kipnis (2B)
Santana/Swisher (C/1B)
Santana/Swisher (C/1B)
Raburn (DH)
Brantley/Bourn (LF/CF)
Cabrera (SS)
Chisenhall (3B)
Stubbs (RF)

*Side note* This lineup would look a whole lot better if Choo was in right instead of Stubbs. I know Choo is going to be a free agent at the end of the season, but this could have been a very good lineup if Choo was included. And with the Bourn, Reynolds, Swisher, and Myers signings it seems like the owners were interested in winning this year.

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Man there is so much suck with this team right now. Season is done, no chance at any playoffs, Bring up the farm and look for some bats. If i'm the dolan's, I'm looking for a new FO, shappy and co are bad...they have had more than enough time to do something. Finally get some money to spend and they waste it. I wish MLB had an amnesty clause like NBA...i'd nominate swisher


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Perez has been the least of our problems. Unless your comparing him to Mo Rivera, he has been pretty consistent to most closers over the past 4 years. In fact, I would welcome the guy back. It's probably mutual that both sides move forward, but you won't find too many closers that have 115 saves, and close to a 90% conversion clip. Just look at Valverde. he hit on all of his saves 2 years ago, now he doesn't have a job. Finding good, consistent closers isn't an easy task.Not everyone is cut for it, as we seen with Pestano this year.

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Quote:

Perez has been the least of our problems. Unless your comparing him to Mo Rivera, he has been pretty consistent to most closers over the past 4 years. In fact, I would welcome the guy back. It's probably mutual that both sides move forward, but you won't find too many closers that have 115 saves, and close to a 90% conversion clip. Just look at Valverde. he hit on all of his saves 2 years ago, now he doesn't have a job. Finding good, consistent closers isn't an easy task.Not everyone is cut for it, as we seen with Pestano this year.




Yep. That was the point I as trying to make earlier.


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The indians are in baseball purgatory. Good enough to contend, until the last month or so. that's why so many wondered why they signed swisher and bourn. those 2 weren't going to put us over. many thought we should've started from scratch or go all in to get some talent to actually beat detroit.

3 years in a row, getting humilated by detroit.

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The Choo trade is a total diaster if Bauer continues to stink.

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I will agree there. Albers and Shaw have disappointed, stubbs is ok, but not an impact player. In theory we could've have given choo, swisher's money, and called it a day. But from what I recall boras never wanted to extend him.

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But if you are going all in with Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds, Myers, etc. then you might as well keep Choo. I guess they thought Bauer would be able to contribute this season.

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Quote:

The Choo trade is a total diaster if Bauer continues to stink.




He wasn't going to resign with us, and we got a legitimate #1 pitching prospect for him. Whether or not Bauer develops is on the Tribe's coaches throughout the organization, but really, that's about as good as you can do trading a rent a player.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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I thought it was a good trade at the time as well. But, correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't it before the Swisher and Bourn signings? That seems counterproductive.

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Quote:

I thought it was a good trade at the time as well. But, correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't it before the Swisher and Bourn signings? That seems counterproductive.




In what way?


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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The Swisher and Bourn signings seemed like moves to win right away, while the Choo trade was made for prospects.

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I would also add that we got Drew Stubbs in that trade, and he's been a solid OF for us as well. He has excellent speed and excellent defense. With Stubbs we might have the best defensive OF in the Majors.

Further, Stubbs is hitting .242 with 7 HR, 37 RBI, 44 runs scored, and 13 SB. It's not Choo, who is hitting .280 with 15 HR, 35 RBI, and 12 SB ..... but Stubbs actually has more RBI and SB than Choo, in 84 fewer AB..

Again, given that Choo wasn't going to re-sign here, getting a very solid defensive OF with speed to go along with a #1 starter, I'd say that the trade worked out well for everyone.

I would also say that many times a pitcher needs a little time to become a finished product. Bauer has some amazing stuff, he just has to learn how to harness it. I wouldn;t write him off after just this one season in our system.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Quote:

The Swisher and Bourn signings seemed like moves to win right away, while the Choo trade was made for prospects.




As I said though, we also got Drew Stubbs, and while he's not on the same level as Choo, he has been very solid and useful for the Indians.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Choo's OBP is .112 points higher than Stubbs.

Quote:

Again, given that Choo wasn't going to re-sign here, getting a very solid defensive OF with speed to go along with a #1 starter, I'd say that the trade worked out well for everyone.

I would also say that many times a pitcher needs a little time to become a finished product. Bauer has some amazing stuff, he just has to learn how to harness it. I wouldn;t write him off after just this one season in our system.




Bauer is no longer a #1 starter. He has lost 5 MPH off his fastball.

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Quote:

Choo's OBP is .112 points higher than Stubbs.

Quote:

Again, given that Choo wasn't going to re-sign here, getting a very solid defensive OF with speed to go along with a #1 starter, I'd say that the trade worked out well for everyone.

I would also say that many times a pitcher needs a little time to become a finished product. Bauer has some amazing stuff, he just has to learn how to harness it. I wouldn;t write him off after just this one season in our system.




Bauer is no longer a #1 starter. He has lost 5 MPH off his fastball.




It's still too soon to tell what he'll be.

Baseball trades can never be "won or lost" in a single season, even if fans and pundits often want to make it seem like they are.

If Choo does not re-sign with the Reds, and the Reds don't make a splash in the playoffs, was the trade worthwhile for them?

The Indians received Bauer, Stubbs, along with relievers Shaw and Albers. (1 future player, and 3 to help this year) The Reds got Choo and Jason Donald. (along, ironically, with $3.5 million from the Indians) The Reds also gave up a solid young SS in Didi Gregorius.

Who "won"? Way too early to tell. Arizona is probably happy with Gregorius. Sipp has been his normal, productive self from the looks of things. I don't see anything about Anderson with a quick look. He's probably back in the Minors.

The Reds got Choo, and they are happy with him. Jason Donald has no Major League stats this year, so he's probably back in the Minors.

The Indians got Bauer, who is a work in progress, with great stuff. They also for Drew Stubbs, who they control through 2016. Further, the Indians added a pair of solid relievers. Albers will be a free agent next year, IIRC, but the Indians control Shaw for a few more years as well.

The Indians had reportedly offered Choo contract extensions numerous times, but Choo said that he wanted to test free agency. He wasn't going to re-sign here. He was gone. We have a couple of useful pieces in Stubbs and Shaw, and a potential upper ortation type starter down the road in Bauer.

That's a pretty solid trade if you ask me.


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John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Like I said, I liked the trade at the time. But if the Indians were going all in they should have just kept Choo and gone all in on this season.

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Why?

What did he give us last year that was irreplaceable this year? He was a solid bat, but that was about it. He hit .280, with 16 HR, and 67 RBI. That was a very solid, very good year ..... but it wasn't some legendary season. He also made it very clear that he wasn't coming back.

I would rather have Stubbs and Bourne for the next few years than to have Choo for this year only.

I could see if we hadn't replaced Choo, but we turned our outfield into a team strength, defensively and offensively.

Bourne hits ,276, with 17 SB, and plays a superior CF.

Brantley moved to LF seamlessly, and is hitting .282 with 8 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, and he is a superior defender. He has 10 outfield assists this year ...... and NO errors. That's incredible, especially given his range that gets him to a lot of balls other guys can't reach.

Stubbs is hitting .242, with 7 HR, 37 RBI, and 13 SB. He's also speed plus in the outfield.

Then add in Raburn as a super sub, and he gives us a .274 average with13 HR, and 38 RBI. He is also a plus speed type guy in the outfield, able to run down balls some other guys never get to.

We could have kept Choo, but then we would have had to pass on at least one of these guys ... and maybe we might have passed on 2 of them. What would we have next year in that case? Teams have to look at this year and future years when making player decisions. It's not exclusively 1 year decisions. I happen to love what the Indians did in the outfield, both in terms of this year and next. I think that we are stronger without Choo than we would have been with him. (especially given that he sometimes seemed unhappy here)


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Two points on this:

1) Trevor Bauer is 22 years old and has a 3.82 ERA in AAA. For comparison, that is 5 years younger than Corey Kluber. Bauer is struggling with many different mechanical ideas right now, that have cost him some speed, as he's trying to get better control. The great news is there is no speculation of medical issues, and the 96-99 mph velocity is still tucked away in that arm somewhere. I'm guessing that at some point over the next five years, he'll come to that middle ground and be a good pitcher. I'm not sure that he'll ever be the #1 that people predicted, but I still think he'll be a very, very solid pitcher in the majors for a long period of time. He needs to find a pitching coach that he respects and listens to, because he has too many voices tinkering with his mechanics right now.

Someone mentioned in the discussion of the Choo trade how the pieces haven't done anything, specifically mentioning Shaw and Albers. Albers has a 3.45 ERA and has been quite good for the front end of the bullpen role that he's been pegged for. Is he lights-out? No, but he's a definite major league bullpen guy. He's 30, so he may be on the downside, but you cannot complain about him this year. One of my favorite measuring tools for hitters is OPS+. While its not perfect, the idea behind it is to measure hitters against others relative to positions. They now have ERA+. Albers ERA+ is 111. League average would be 100. Shaw hasn't been as effective. Shaw has been much more effective at times than Albers, but has also gone through much worse stretches. However, Shaw has a much better fastball and is only 25 years old.

2) Chris Perez is a legitimate MLB closer. He's probably a top-10 closer in baseball right now, as much as Cleveland fans doesn't want to believe that. Unfortunately, he's also going to be in the final year of arbitration, and his salary will be around $8-9 million next year. The Indians should not pay him that, because with a limited salary structure, you cannot overpay a reliever that much money. Whether its Pestano, Allen, Shaw, or somebody else, the Indians need a different closer next year. Hopefully they can trade him, but I doubt that will be possible and the Indians will end up giving him his outright release before arbitration next year. Francona won't do it, because he's too traditional, but some manager in the near future is going to become very rich off of ditching the closer role and going entirely to the "relief ace" strategy. Your best reliever goes into the highest leverage situation, regardless of whether that is the 6th or 9th inning. It only makes sense.

What has worked so well for the Indians the past few years is that Perez has been an effective closer, but hasn't been the best reliever. So Acta was able to use Pestano/Smith/Sipp was able to pitch in higher leverage situations and save Perez for the traditional closer role. Speaking of, Tony Sipp was designated for assignment by the D-Backs (I would be on the phone with them yesterday) and Rafael Perez is in AA for the Red Sox. Anybody wanting to speak to the volatility of relievers need look no further. Those two were the most dominating LH options in baseball just a few years ago and now there's a good chance they'll both be in the minors by year's end.


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I always thought Choo was a good outfielder with a plus throwing arm in RF, but last year he played some of the crappiest OF I've seen in a long time. He got really late breaks on flies and took bad angles for most of the season. Thats hard to understand when you've seen a guy perform at a high level before. I think Stubbs might be one of the best defensive outfielders I've ever seen - great speed, good breaks on balls, and a strong arm. I like watching him play - just wish he could hit for a higher average because he'd create havoc on the basepaths with his speed. Its off the point but I wish the Indians would work with Bourn, Stubbs, Brantley, Asdrubal, and Kipnis on their bunting ability. They could have had a field day with Miguel Cabrera in that Tigers series, because he could barely run.

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Quote:

I think that we are stronger without Choo than we would have been with him. (especially given that he sometimes seemed unhappy here)




So you think Stubbs is better than Choo? Because that was essentially the trade-off. If you think that then I don't know what to tell you other than you are way way way way wrong.

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Quote:

Quote:

I think that we are stronger without Choo than we would have been with him. (especially given that he sometimes seemed unhappy here)




So you think Stubbs is better than Choo? Because that was essentially the trade-off. If you think that then I don't know what to tell you other than you are way way way way wrong.




The trade off is Choo for one year, plus Sipp and Donald, for Stubbs, and Shaw for several years ...... and Albers for this year ....... plus Bauer.

Yeah, one year of an unhappy Choo isn't worth what we receiver IMHO. He is a different player in Cincinnati because he seems happy there. He wasn't here. Further, we might not have added Bourn if we'd kept Choo to go along with Brantley. Who knows? I am quite happy with Bourn, so I would consider any scenario that takes him away from us as a failure.

It's almost impossible to look at one trade in the offseason without taking the larger picture into consideration. Donald was a so-so fill in. Sipp was a high quality reliever for us. Choo was an unhappy plus level player, who was not going to re-sign here under any circumstances, and who has made it clear that he is looking for the best offer he can get. So again ....

1 year of Choo, plus Donald and Sipp

Or .......

Multiple years of Stubbs and Shaw, plus Bauer, and Bourn .......

Sign me up for the latter 100 times out of 100.

You want to make this trade like it was Stubbs for Choo, but that's in no way what the trade was.


Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.

John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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