DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Which NFL Team Is Set to Make the Biggest Leap in 2013?

Very interesting read. Maybe my expectations for this year are realistic?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1735000-which-nfl-team-is-set-to-make-the-biggest-leap-in-2013

Every season, at least one NFL team makes an improbable leap from the NFL's basement to its penthouse.

Maybe it's a top-five draft pick or a new coach who makes a huge impact. Maybe an underachieving team finally finds a catalyst, like a new formation or alignment. Maybe Lady Luck just smiles on a team that's been on long odds for too long.

This year, that team will be the Cleveland Browns.



Not a Typo

Wait, what? The Browns?

Hi-res-158430628_crop_exact Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

The team with a second-year quarterback who posted a 72.6 NFL passer rating in his rookie season and turns 30 in October? The team built around the running of a second-year tailback who averaged 3.6 yards per carry in his debut campaign?

The Browns, whose new head coach's claim to fame is mentoring one of the most talented quarterback prospects ever to two maddeningly inconsistent seasons? The Browns, whose new owner's company is under federal investigation for defrauding customers out of millions of dollars?

Yes, those Browns.



What the Browns Were in 2012

The Cleveland Browns finished last season at 5-11, last in the AFC North. They scored an average of 18.9 points per game, which ranked 24th in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference. They allowed 23 points per game, 19th best in the NFL.

The Browns had an unremarkable plus-three turnover ratio, so they weren't helped or hurt by turnover margin.

Overall in 2012, the Browns performed on the low end of the NFL's giant "mediocre" tier—or maybe the high end of the "subpar" tier.

Let's look a little deeper.

One of the strongest predictive stats in football is the Simple Ranking System. Pro Football Reference explained SRS in depth, but the upshot is SRS adjusts margin of victory by strength of schedule. It's not a great way of explaining what happened, but it's fantastic at projecting what's about to happen.

Here's how the AFC stacked up, per SRS, at the end of the 2012 regular season. Think of this table as a statistical "power ranking" going into imaginary Week 18:

AFC SRS Rankings TEAM W L T W-L% MoV SoS SRS ▾ OSRS DSRS
Patriots 12 4 0 0.75 14.1 -1.4 12.8 12.2 0.5
Broncos 13 3 0 0.813 12 -1.9 10.1 6.3 3.8
Texans 12 4 0 0.75 5.3 -1.8 3.5 1.8 1.7
Ravens 10 6 0 0.625 3.4 -0.5 2.9 1.9 1
Bengals 10 6 0 0.625 4.4 -2.4 2.1 1.2 0.9
Steelers 8 8 0 0.5 1.4 -2 -0.7 -2.8 2.1
Chargers 7 9 0 0.438 0 -2.3 -2.3 -2 -0.4
Dolphins 7 9 0 0.438 -1.8 -0.8 -2.6 -5.5 2.9
Colts 11 5 0 0.688 -1.9 -2.8 -4.7 -1.9 -2.8
Browns 5 11 0 0.313 -4.1 -1.2 -5.3 -4.6 -0.7
Jets 6 10 0 0.375 -5.9 0 -5.9 -5.1 -0.9
Bills 6 10 0 0.375 -5.7 -1 -6.7 -0.9 -5.8
Titans 6 10 0 0.375 -8.8 -1.2 -10 -2.6 -7.4
Raiders 4 12 0 0.25 -9.6 -1.3 -10.8 -4.6 -6.2
Jaguars 2 14 0 0.125 -11.8 -1.1 -13 -8.1 -4.9
Chiefs 2 14 0 0.125 -13.4 -0.6 -14 -10.3 -3.7

Pro Football Reference

We see Cleveland's SRS number is minus-5.3. That sounds poor—and in terms of the rest of the NFL, it is.

With that minus-4.1 average margin of victory, the Pythagorean Wins formula says the Browns "should have" won 6.2 games in 2012. This means their win-loss results could be primed for a bounce back in 2013, as their "luck" regresses toward the mean.

Further, the Browns were 2-5 in 2012 games decided by a touchdown or less. Similarly poor records in close games by the 2011 Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts caused Grantland's Bill Barnwell to (correctly) predict big things for both teams in 2012.

In 2012, though, the AFC was significantly weaker than the NFC. Note the massive gap between the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and everyone else. At the bottom of the table, the Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs were far weaker than everyone else in the AFC.

In fact, the difference in strength between the second-ranked Patriots and third-ranked Texans (6.6) was nearly as big as the spread between the Texans and the Browns (8.8). At the end of the season, the Browns weren't much stronger than the New York Jets or Buffalo Bills, but they weren't much weaker than the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins or San Diego Chargers.

Unlike those other teams, though, the Browns were a team in limbo.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the sale of the Browns to Jimmy Haslam on Aug. 2, 2012; the Browns were already on their sixth day of training camp.

New Browns CEO Joe Banner was introduced Wednesday, Oct. 17, beginning an awkward lame-duck period for president Mike Holmgren. General manager Tom Heckert and head coach Pat Shurmur—along with the rest of the front office and coaching staff—knew last season that they were auditioning for their next jobs.

With a shaky rookie quarterback drafted by leaders on their way out, and a rookie tailback slow to get up to speed, the entire Browns organization was turned over in the middle of the season. By the end of the season, they were in the middle of the AFC pack.

How did that happen?

For starters, the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. Anchored by left tackle Joe Thomas, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded the Browns at plus-41.9 in pass-blocking, fifth best in the NFL. In run-blocking, PFF graded the Browns at plus-10, 14th best in the league.

None of the four teams the Browns finished below in pass-blocking (Broncos, Bengals, Lions, Bills) were anywhere near as good as the Browns in the run game. Only the Patriots (ninth-best pass-blocking, second-best run-blocking) and San Francisco 49ers (seventh-best pass-blocking, best run-blocking) boasted better two-way offensive lines.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns were an average unit that got better as the season wore on. Football Outsiders ranked the Browns 22nd with a DVOA of plus-4.5 percent; offenses facing the Browns thus produced 4.5 percent better than average.

FO also generates a weighted average that emphasizes end-of-season performance. In this metric, the Browns defensive DVOA improved to 0.9 percent, and a 19th-best rank.

Pro Football Focus was even kinder to the Browns; they graded Cleveland's defense at plus-25.6, 13th best in the NFL. PFF graded Cleveland's run-stuffing at plus-26.3, 14th best. Cleveland's back seven stood out in pass coverage; PFF graded them sixth best in the NFL at plus-30.9.

The weak link in the Browns defense, according to PFF, was the pass rush. The minus-28.2 rank was fourth from the bottom.



House: Cleaned

Banner completed the housecleaning at the end of the season.

Former top Oakland Raiders executive Mike Lombardi was brought in to serve as general manager. Lombardi had spent five seasons as a media observer, with stints at Sports Illustrated and NFL.com sandwiched around the launch of his brainchild, the National Football Post.

Lombardi has fans and detractors in the media, but he knows the Browns. He was a high-ranking personnel man in Cleveland from 1987 until the franchise's relocation in 1996. He was promoted to director of player personnel while Bill Belichick was the coach in Cleveland, and he remains close to Belichick.

Banner identified seven head coaching candidates, according to the Associated Press (via Sports Illustrated), but ultimately hired another one of Cleveland's own. Rob Chudzinski, nicknamed "Chud," grew up as an ardent Browns fan in Toledo, Ohio, and had served as a Browns assistant two separate times.

In his last stint with the Browns, Chudzinski engineered a high-flying offense. Powered by the big arm of quarterback Derek Anderson, Chudzinksi's 2007 Browns finished eighth in the NFL in scoring—the Browns' only top-10 offense since 1987, per Pro Football Reference.

In 2008, Anderson's injuries and poor performance caused a quarterback implosion of rarely-before-seen magnitude. Four different Browns started at least one game under center in 2008, and Chud's offense scored fewer points than all but one other team. After the 2008 season, the coaching staff (along with general manager Phil Savage) was broomed.

Chud landed in San Diego, where he'd worked in between Browns stints, this time under head coach Norv Turner. Incredibly, in the four years Chudzinski coached the Chargers offense (2005, 2006, 2009 and 2010), they never finished lower than fifth in the NFL in scoring.

Chudzinski resumed coordinator duties in 2011, when he took the reins for Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Just how much of Newton's success Chudzinski can take credit for is debatable; whether Newton has been truly successful isn't an open-and-shut case either.

Besides raw passing yards and completion percentage, though, Newton showed progress or held steady in every major stat from his rookie year to his second:

Cam Newton Statistics Year Cmp% Yds TD% Int% Y/A AY/A Y/C Rate NY/A ANY/A Sk%
2011 60 4051 4.1 3.3 7.8 7.2 13.1 84.5 6.87 6.24 6.3
2012 57.7 3869 3.9 2.5 8 7.6 13.8 86.2 6.96 6.65 6.9

Pro Football Reference

These are great signs.

Newton's interception percentage dropped from 3.3 percent to 2.5 percent while average yards per attempt and completion each increased. In fact, Newton's 13.8 average yards per completion led the NFL in 2012. Nobody was chucking it further downfield than the big No. 1, yet he was still more effective and more efficient than during his rookie season.

That's exactly the kind of progress the Browns want to see from Brandon Weeden.

Chudzinski's deep-drop, deep-route downfield offense is a perfect fit for Weeden, unlike the modern West Coast offense favored by Shurmur (an Andy Reid protege). Unlike many first-time head coaches, though, Chudzinski's smart enough to know he needs strong veteran coordinators to rely on.

To run the offense, Chudzinski hired his last boss in San Diego: Norv Turner.

Turner has long been considered one of the top offensive minds in football, but as a head coach, Turner's teams have underachieved. Now Turner can focus on getting the best out of Weeden (as he did with Troy Aikman, Brad Johnson and Philip Rivers, among others). Fortunately, Turner also likes his quarterbacks to set up and throw downfield.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Ray Horton is switching the defense from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base. Normally, this spells disaster for a season while the starters adjust to new roles, and most of the backups are let go and replaced over a two-season period.

The Browns, though, have been in a 4-3 for just two seasons; quite a few key players are holdovers from Crennel's 3-4. Further, Horton doesn't run a strict two-gap 3-4 all the time.

This outstanding piece from Brendan Leister of DraftBrowns.com explains Horton's hybridized multiple-gap 3-4 fronts, as well as his 2-4-5 nickel and 2-3-6 dime packages.

Horton should also put the bite back in the Dawgs' pass rush. According to ESPN, Horton's 2012 Arizona Cardinals blitzed with five or more pass-rushers 42.3 percent of the time, second most in the NFL. The Browns, meanwhile, sent five or more at the quarterback just 26.5 percent of the time.



Talent: Added

The Browns were aggressive in free agency. The centerpiece of their acquisitions was outside linebacker Paul Kruger, whose standout performances in the playoffs helped his former team, the Baltimore Ravens, get to (and win) the Super Bowl.

Hi-res-7526076_crop_exact Ron Schwane-USA TODAY Sports

Even during the regular season, though, Kruger stood out. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Kruger was the sixth-best 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL in 2012. Most of that came from his plus-15.1 pass-rush rating, better than everyone other than Aldon Smith, Clay Matthews and DeMarcus Ware.

Jamison Hensley of ESPN reports Kruger looked "even better" during Hensley's camp visit than Kruger did in 2012. Those are strong words.

Though he got more offseason attention for his stunning criminal mugshot than his play or first-day free-agent deal, new Browns defensive end Desmond Bryant was secretly one of the most effective interior pass-rushers in 2012.

Pro Football Focus charted Bryant with four sacks, 11 quarterback hits and 20 hurries on 352 passing downs. That's a Pass Rush Productivity figure of 7.8, better than every defensive tackle in the NFL save Geno Atkins, Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Williams.

Bryant, playing in Oakland's 4-3, will have a transition to make to play right defensive end in Horton's 3-4, but there's no question he has the talent to make an instant impact up front.

The Browns couldn't add a lot of rookie talent due to a lack of picks. They'd already spent those picks acquiring receivers Josh Gordon (in last year's supplemental draft) and Davone Bess (in a draft-day trade).

With the one Browns pick that truly mattered, the No. 6 overall pick, Banner, Chudzinski and Horton got their man: Barkevious Mingo.

As Chuck Klosterman of Grantland explained after being embedded in the war room, almost all of Cleveland's draft strategy revolved around whether or not Mingo would be there at No. 6. When he was, Banner told the world it was "the outcome [they] were hoping for."

Mingo's standout performance in the first preseason game left no doubt as to why.



Talent: Developed

It's not just the players the Browns have added that make them such a candidate for breakout success, but the young players ready to take the next step.

Mingo is a huge part of Cleveland's present and future plans. Even so, Horton told Mary Kay Cabot of The Plain Dealer that underrated incumbent defensive end Jabaal Sheard has been "fantastic" in his transition to 3-4 outside linebacker.

Hi-res-133596581_crop_exact Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

Kruger and Sheard could be a fearsome pair of edge-rushers added to a defense that was already solid without much rush. With Mingo rotating in, that much pass-rushing depth and talent plugged into such an aggressive system could make the defense's biggest weakness its biggest strength.

Though Gordon combined well with fellow receiver Greg Little last season, his two-game drug suspension forced Banner to put Gordon on notice, according to Cabot. Whether Gordon gets it together or not, the developing Little and veteran Bess should be able to stretch defenses.

In the secondary, Hensley reported top cornerback Joe Haden's play and attitude appear to be on the rebound after a disappointing 2012 season that included a four-game suspension for use of a banned substance.

When a former No. 7 overall pick who's played as well as Haden has gets described as a "man on a mission," that's scary.

Stud tailback Trent Richardson? Well, flashes of his talent showed clearly last season, but his performance fell well short of "stud" level. Richardson fought through bumps and bruises last season; a shin knock is keeping him out of the preseason this year.

If, as Richardson claimed per Nate Ulrich of the Beacon Journal, Richardson is 100 percent healthy, he should run better behind that offensive line. It'll be even easier for Richardson to take another step forward if the defense respects the passing game.



The Brandon Weeden Project

It all comes back to Weeden, the much-maligned quarterback. Can Turner and Chudzinski really coax the upside out of Weeden's talent while eliminating the mistakes?

In Week 1 of last season, I broke down a Weeden interception as part of my weekly film review:

Weeden made two critical mistakes: He stared down the open receiver, and he airmailed the throw. Still, he got the really hard part right—that's breaking down the defense before the snap and identifying the correct receiver to throw to.

"Looking off the defense can be taught," I wrote at the time," and Weeden is a gifted enough thrower that his accuracy can improve. The part you either have or don't—the ability to read a defense and make a good decision quickly—Weeden's got."

Whether the Browns make a Colts- or Vikings-like jump to double-digit wins or just surprise some people comes entirely down to how much progress Weeden can make this offseason.

If the first preseason game is any indicator—and it's preseason, it might not be—Weeden's made a big leap.

After completing just 57.4 percent of his passes last regular season, and throwing touchdowns at the fourth-slowest rate of any starting quarterback, Weeden went 10-of-13 for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Again, it's just preseason, but watching Weeden find open receivers downfield, make the reads and throw great balls was intoxicating. If Weeden puts up a similarly outstanding performance against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland's other preseason opponents, the Browns will be in a great position to make the biggest leap of any NFL team.

It's a huge drag when I think about the success of the season and this team, and how much of it rides on Weeden...

Scary, very scary cause I don't have that much faith in him. JMO.

j/c

"It all comes back to Weeden". Yes, OK. But we have heard this ad nauseum...just let the season begin before any further professions of faith, or lack thereof.

It all sounds reasonable to me.

Hopefully he'll be proved absolutely correct.

Let's look at the other "Worst to first" contenders:

Buffalo. Starting a rookie QB (most likely) and there are usually growing pains associated with that decision. I don't see Manuel as being on the same level as Luck, RG3, and Wilson. I suspect that they will struggle this comng season.

Browns: Listed by the writer above

Jaguars: Their QB situation is abysmal right now. They have some nice pieces, but I don't think that they have enough to put it all together this year.

Chefs: This is another team with the opportunity to make a jump. They have talent, and they signed a decent QB. I'm not a huge Alex Smith fan, but he is definitely better than Bradt Quinn. (if that's not damning with faint praise, I don't know what is)

Philly: 1st time NFL head coach and Pat Shurmur as the OC. Ugh. I really don't see the Eagles making a huge jump. I see them as maybe a couple of games better at best.

Detroit: This team might have the best opportunity to move up from worst in their division, just because last year was such an anomaly. They have Stafford, and Calvin Johnson, (does he get 2000 receiving yards this year?) which puts them in any game.

Tampa Bay: Well, they went 7-9 last year, but I think that they regress this year. Hard to improve if you regress.

Arizona: Could be an interesting team. I really like Arians as head coach, and they went and got a real QB in Carson Palmer. (who some may dislike, but who threw for 4000 yards and 22 TD on a flat awful Raiders team) QB was, by far, their biggest weakness. They do have some talent, and should improve.

I think that the last place team from last year that improves the most will come from the Browns, Chefs, and Lions. I could actually see the Cardinals improving as well. I'll take us, just so as not to be disagreeable. That said, I think that a few bad teams could improve a fair amount this coming season.

JC

I hope we do, but the team doesnt look night and day better.

I just read this article and came back to dawgtalkers and there it was posted.

Interesting article. The guy went into great detail as to why. Not sure if I am buying his stats but I do see his points.

When the dust settles though it is all about the performance of Brandon Weedon. Great quarterbacks lead teams to victory when the game is on the line.

You can slice and dice all kinds of stats, but when the game is on the line all eyes look to the quarterback.

I expect improvement. All players should improve yearly, especially from the first to second year.

At the same time I do not expect miracles. The NFL is a proving ground. If you have what it takes you rise up. If you do not you disappear.

Quote:

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Chefs: This is another team with the opportunity to make a jump. They have talent, and they signed a decent QB. I'm not a huge Alex Smith fan, but he is definitely better than Bradt Quinn. (if that's not damning with faint praise, I don't know what is)

---

Not sure how they'll do on the field, but I understand they can make a mean Pasta Sauce....

Neat article. While I love reading that we should be better, I just want to see it at this point. Here are a few teams who I think will have better records than last year:

1. Saints
2. Lions
3. Chiefs
4. Giants
5. Browns


Teams I that I think will have worse records:

1. Ravens
2. Redskins
3. Falcons
4. Seahawks
5. Patriots

I know Bleacher Report has become more respected over the past year or two, but I still have a bad perception about that site. They need to change their name or something.

I dont feel as reliant on Weeden as most of you. Our defense, almost complete. ST's should be a positive, better punter/kr threat still there/steady kicking game.
Offensively, I feel we have a great group in the OL, I honestly feel we have 4 guards of starting quality. WR's improved/upgraded. so the only real question is QB. Even if Weeden is unable to raise his level to atleast game manager, I think we have a solid QB in Campbell who can at minimum, manage the game.

Weeden's rise or failure, I think we can be solid enough to go .500 or better.

Quite questionable. Guards with the exception of Grecco, and now that Lava is out, is very thin and what I would label as our "weakest link" in terms of the o-line.

The best thing I got out of this article was this link detailing Ray Horton's defense. It is a very detailed informative look at what the Cardinals did under Horton. (Hint: They blitzed. A lot.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Another year in the new regime. They returned a lot of starters on offense and Josh Freeman had a very underrated year last year. They added Revis & Goldson on top of having an excellent draft. This team is set to rise up from the bottom of the NFC South and potentially win the division.

Carolina Panthers - They added some help on defense. If Cam Newton and that offense can score points like they did his rookie year, I look for them to win 10 games as well.

Kansas City Chiefs - Probably the best 2-14 team in NFL history (sending I think it was 6 players to the pro-bowl?!). They have a new coaching staff, added a good left tackle via the draft, and they brought in Alex Smith. Outside of the Broncos that division is terrible, I could see the Chiefs going 10-6 if they stay healthy on both sides of the football.

As far as our Cleveland Browns. I personally don't see any better than a 6-10 season awaiting us. Too many questions across the board to predict anything better. How will the run game perform? How will Weeden perform? Will Richardson stay healthy? On the other side the ball we have question marks in the secondary. I think we'll be competitive in all 16 games (assuming we're healthy) but I don't see us winning more than 6 games this year. Hoping I'm wrong though obviously.

That's a very well thought out and presented best case scenario for our team. I know some people enjoy being negative to appear to be more learned but I agree with a lot of what this guy has to say.

In the end Weeden is the straw that stirs the drink. If he can make the jump, in an offense that suits him, the Browns could be a tough out all year.

Do I think he will?

Yes I do.

Parity in the NFL is kind of astounding.

In my mind results are generally some combination of qb play, coaching, and injuries.

Outside of injuries at the qb position or horrific offensive lines it is hard for me to guess where anyone outside of the clear elite QB teams will place.

I didn't pay attention to their failures. I assume losing their head coach, not having a 1st or 2nd round pick, having two interim coaches, and having a historically bad defense (worst in nfl since 1981 in yards given up), were the causes.

They still went 7-9. Thanks Drew

j/c...

we are either going to be thanking Heckert and Holmgren for Weeden and their high attempt to save their jobs by drafting an old QB.. or we'll be like..

I agree with the article. I see a team that was mostly 1st and 2nd year players and now they have a year under their belt. I also feel the AFC has slipped and we can beat anyone in this division.

The real difference imho is Weeden under Chud and Norv and we added a pass rush with an insane DC that is gonna get after it.

miami they could win 12 games this year
wallace
grimes
jordan
throw that in with a weak schedule big improvement.

I really doubt it. Those guys you mentioned really aren't special players. Wallace is very good at some things but he's not a top 10 receiver, so what is that? Tannehill isn't a top half quarterback. Grimes isn't a top 10 corner. Jordan isn't a top 20 pass rusher. Their RB situation is bottom 5 in the league. Outside of Wake who is a top 10 player at their position on that team? Ok, so they get to play buffalo and the jets twice each, but they might lose to the bills once or maybe even twice. I don't know, anything can happen, but double digit wins for that team doesn't seem likely to me.

How often does a team win a super bowl only to have to watch all off-season on espn about how much they are going to be bad in the coming year?

What? I'm not allowed to say the Ravens are going to make the biggest leap?

As long as Joe Flacco stays healthy.

I feel they have the best qb in the division. They have the best running back in the division. They have as stable of a coaching staff as anyone else in the division.

I feel pretty strongly that the AFC North goes through Baltimore and in recent years, if your team is good enough to win this division then you have a chance to win the Super Bowl. So I think the Ravens can repeat. I think their biggest competition is the Patriots, and T. Brady just took a shot to his knee today.

I just feel pretty strongly that Joe Flacco, well he's been on the up swing and he's had a lot to prove to prove he is the best, or one of the best in the world.
I just think Joe Flacco, has really been building up steam to where this will be his showcase year, and he will bust out, into all time greatness status if he can stay healthy.
When I look at the Ravens I see a team with really no weaknesses. Every time they have an injury or a player leaves for retirement, they go out and find a suitable veteran replacement who has proven he can play in this league.
The Ravens are really a team that is doing things the right way. T. Suggs will be back healthy for a whole season. They have added Dumerville.
When Pitta went down with an injury, oh they just go out and sign Dallas Clark.

The Bengals are paper tigers, the Browns are still in a state of trying to find themselves, and the Steelers are a team with many wounds.

I think the Ravens will put the NFL on notice en route to a repeat and I think they will be even more dominate this year than last.

So I think the Ravens are set to make the biggest leap in 2013, but I don't expect anyone to agree with me.
And I don't expect anyone to understand the caliber of big leap it would be if they did what I said.

I dont even give Miami 8-8, I think they will have 5-6 wins at most. Their OL is horrible, no running game, and Tannehill is just so-so. Like with Weeden, Tannehill will have a tougher time this year simply because teams have more game film on them.

I don't know all of Miami's personnel, but I do expect them to rush the passer more effectively (with Wake and Jordan despite early reports of Jordan's struggles). Plus, they'll play the Jets twice and the Bills twice, which gives them a fair shot to be at least .500 in the division. But I'm not buying them as a playoff favorite or surprise team. I think our game with them is a tossup.

I watched the first half of their preseason game.
I would be utterly disappointed if we dont destroy them in the first game. Good/Bad Weeds idc,.. we should win, convincingly.

Three touchdowns to Bess!

As someone who hasn't seen them play at all, I must ask you then. Why did Bill Polian say yesterday on the radio that the Dolphins had the "best talent outside of San Francisco" in the NFL? What would make him say that? Basically, he said they have a great chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles had great talent a few years ago too.

Talent alone doesn't always win ball games. It takes talent at specific positions, and the ability for players to play as a team.

I am still not sold on Tannehill as an NFL QB. I think that Wallace is a fairly undisciplined and selfish receiver. They spent a ton on him this off-season. Dustin Keller had a down year last year, even vefore he got hurt. They have zero experience behind him from what I have seen.The really only have 3 receivers with any degree of experience, IIRC. Wallace, Hartline, and their "new" 3rd down guy. (Gibson) Their OL is iffy, especially at LT. They have some decent looking pieces at RB, but really they are banking on Miller there, and he has 51 career carries. He did well on those carries, but he is a somewhat smaller back IIRC, more speed than power. They really don't have any experienced depth behind him. They lost Bush in free agency, so Smith has some fairly big shoes to fill.

I do like some of the talent that they have on their DL. (especially Wake, Jordan's potential, Starks and Odrick) Their LB corps really needs to prove itself to me. They signed Ellerbee, but he no longer has guys like Ray Lewis and Paul Kruger playing alongside him and demanding attention. I think that he's a good player, but they are really counting on him to be great. They gave up Dansby, who was a solid LB as well. They also signed Grimes, but lost Sean Smith. This could be a wash, or a negative. I don't know if I count on a guy coming off of Achilles surgery to be an upgrade.

Look at who the Dolphins lost in free agency, and they lost quite a bit. They lost Anthony Fasano at TE. (332 yards and 5 TD) They lost Reggie Bush at RB. (986 rush yards, 4.3 per run, 6 TD, plus 292 receiving yards and an additonal 2 TD) They lost Kevin Burnett but signed Phillip Wheeler to replace him. That's almost an even trade. They let Dansby go when they signed Ellerbe. Is that an upgrade? Maybe long term, but Dansby had a good season last year. They lost Jake Long, and I think that might be their biggest loss. The traded away Bess (to us, thankfully) and signed Wallace. That should be a plus for them, but he has never been a disciplined route runner. Last year Bess had 61 receptions for 778 yards. Wallace had 64 receptions for 836 yards. There's a difference there, but I tend to lessen Wallace's impact when you consider Ben Roethlisberger's ability to keep plays alive forever and a day. That gives his receivers more time to get open, and I think that Wallace will have to work harder in Miami to maintain his status qou.

I think that Miami has talent, but I would doubt that they have the 2nd most outside of San Francisco. Just off the top of my head I think that Seattle, Atlanta, Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati also have more talent than Miami. Miami went for name players, but the guys they replaced might have been some of their better players. That means that those guys have to be even better, because they weren't replacing real trouble spots. We'll see what happens.

Nice points Ytown. Admittedly, I don't know much about their personnel, but the area of strength based on your synopsis is clearly their DLine. That is a formidable group IMO. But they better hope that their FA acquisitions at the other spots pan out or else they may not have as much success as some think.

Also, I notice a lot of people mention their OLine as being very weak ... and I've seen nothing to dispute that point anywhere.

The biggest issue I see with what the Dolphins did this off-season is that they took areas of relative strength, and replaced players with other players of relatively similar abilities. (especially at LB and CB) It will be interesting to see how it works out for them. I don't see a huge jump forward for them.

They do have the benefit of being able to play the Bills and Jets four times this season.