So I played with the draft game that folks have been posting the link for. Its interesting...perhaps not the most realistic but a fun little exercise to pass the time.
Giving it a try, my thoughts were QB first and hoping we could land Bridgewater. I offered both firsts to move up to the top spot as well as a mid round and got rejected. Having learned from the RG3 debacle I then decided I'd stay put.
Instead, trade offer came in to move down in the draft and pick up second rounders. I gobbled a few of these up- ended up at landing at pick 18 in the first.
Here what made me pause....Manziel is still on the board... Bridgewater and Bortles are both gone. Manziel is a wildcard but is an amazing but polarizing player. Does his style cross over to the NFL? Can you ignore the talent?
So my question is this.... where is your tipping point on Johnny Football? At what point can you not pass him up?
Who else with a 1st round grade is still on the board at ALL positions? Who is the BEST player left on the board at ANY position? What other QB's are still available?
If you can get a sure-fire answer to another spot on the team at that pick, you do it. If nobody else available is more of a sure-fire answer than Manziel (which would be surprising), then you can think about rolling the dice.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
I think with our 2nd first round pick is the point I would draft him... I wouldn't move up or use our 1st pick.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
I have been thinking about this for a while now actually, trading down that is. The mocks I've see Bortles,Carr and Bridgewater aren't available. I would be looking to move down in the draft at that point.
I love Manzeil, he does lack ideal size (he is 6'1, Brian Hoyer is only 6'2) but his "Wildcard" ability doesn't scare me at at all. He is a smart kid from everything I've read and takes coaching well. Just look at his progression over the past year. He went from almost exclusively running and throwing to standing in the pocket a lot more in just a year.
He dominated the best team in the country two years in a row.
If we could trade down for a 2nd, I'd love to see us do that if the QB's are gone. Then I would use that 2nd and trade back up into the first round and grab a guy like Marquise Lee. Manziel, Lee and say a guy like Taylor Lewan or whoever we graded highly. Three first round picks in one year could set us up for a long time.
There are just too many possibilities, too much football to be played, combines, Pro days, interviews. There is just too much to happen yet to really gauge what our options will be.
I wouldn't even draft the guy. I really don't understand the love this guy is getting. Polarizing character, yes. Dynamic runner, yes. NFL Quarterback, no.
- His deep passes hang on him. He has arm strength to put good zip on short and intermediate routes. However, his deep passes hang on him or rainbow at times.
- He doesn’t step up to escape blindside pressure. He often plays Madden- runs backwards until he can chuck it deeper than he needs to rather than rolling from pressure or stepping up while still trying to pass.
- He overthrows or throws high a little too often, especially when scrambling. He lets his receivers highpoint the ball, which is good, but often does so at the expense of potential YAC- or leaves his receivers open for big hits.
- Occasionally pulls a Weeden- ie tosses a lame duck pass while under pressure either to throw the ball away or to a RB. Did it twice in two games, once it was incomplete the other time it was a pick.
- Appears to get frustrated with good coverage. When he wants to throw, he’s going to throw. There were times when he would force the ball into coverage rather than trying to run and it led to picks because he doesn’t have the arm strength to force the ball into tiny windows
- Occasionally feels phantom pressure and gets happy feet.
- Runs with the ball far away from his body- so far hasn’t come back to bite him.
- He has a garbage attitude and I don't see him as a leader.
Quote: I think with our 2nd first round pick is the point I would draft him... I wouldn't move up or use our 1st pick.
I think I'm with you there. Although, I don't think he lasts that long. I'm worried he's the next Russell Wilson and many teams will pass on him because of his perceived personality problems (which I don't think he's all that bad).
I like the guy, on and off the field. A rookie Heisman QB with family money should be living it up, if he wasn't I'd question if he was human. Sure, he needs to get more serious in the NFL, but I think he knows that.
Does he have the size, arm strength, accuracy, speed, ability to read defenses and will his body hold up? Those are variables I'll defer to you all and draft guru's. My eye test says he's worth a shot.
“...Iguodala to Curry, back to Iguodala, up for the layup! Oh! Blocked by James! LeBron James with the rejection!”
Quote: I wouldn't even draft the guy. I really don't understand the love this guy is getting. Polarizing character, yes. Dynamic runner, yes. NFL Quarterback, no.
The best gauge would be the best competition IMO. I think most would agree Alabama is the best team in the country. Manziel took them to the absolute limit and he beat them last year. I've already watched this, but I wanted to give my two cents on Manzeil.
30 seconds - NFL throw 1:40 seconds - NFL Throw 2:30 seconds - forget the throw, look how effortlessly he slides away from the pass rush. 8:28 - Fluidity in the pocket 9:00 - excellent timing back shoulder throw, but it is a floater. 9:30 - you just cannot coach that 13:03 - Excellent anticipation and timing throw. 13:30 - Showing he does have adequate arm strength 14:15 - An absolutely beautiful throw, deep and over the shoulder.
No doubt he has things he needs to work on, like throwing off his back foot, which he does very often.
7:50 - he floats one, showing lack of arm strength 8:35 - showing he is often a one read and run QB, he goes to the slot, he does LOOK at the crossing route, that is open, he just tucks and runs. 10:30 - Poor decision making, under thrown, just bad 11:17 - poor accuracy, even on a touchdown throw
General bad: he needs to learn to slide.
He has some work to do, but the other top guys have questions (minus birdgewater) as well and basically every last one of those top 3-4 QB's have played absolutely zero good competition in trash conferences playing cupcakes. Manziel won the Heisman and was a top end player in the best conference in football as a freshman and Sophmore. That is no luck, it's not coincidence.
I see a lot of Russel Wilson in Manziel. They run the read option in Seattle, they move the pocket (spot) for Wilson. I could absolutely see Manziel flourishing in a system like they run in Seattle.
I'm not saying he's "my guy" or anything, I've said I would prefer a top of the draft QB, but I think a lot of people are discrediting how good Manziel is because he's a "sandlot" QB.
- His deep passes hang on him. He has arm strength to put good zip on short and intermediate routes. However, his deep passes hang on him or rainbow at times.
- He doesn’t step up to escape blindside pressure. He often plays Madden- runs backwards until he can chuck it deeper than he needs to rather than rolling from pressure or stepping up while still trying to pass.
- He overthrows or throws high a little too often, especially when scrambling. He lets his receivers highpoint the ball, which is good, but often does so at the expense of potential YAC- or leaves his receivers open for big hits.
- Occasionally pulls a Weeden- ie tosses a lame duck pass while under pressure either to throw the ball away or to a RB. Did it twice in two games, once it was incomplete the other time it was a pick.
- Appears to get frustrated with good coverage. When he wants to throw, he’s going to throw. There were times when he would force the ball into coverage rather than trying to run and it led to picks because he doesn’t have the arm strength to force the ball into tiny windows
- Occasionally feels phantom pressure and gets happy feet.
- Runs with the ball far away from his body- so far hasn’t come back to bite him.
- He has a garbage attitude and I don't see him as a leader.
I was with you right until the end. I simply do not agree, he is a leader on the field and believe it or not, that's all guys really care about. WAY too much is put into "locker room leadership". You can't lead in the locker room or the sidelines.
He's never had legal trouble, he isn't into drugs, he comes from a good family and plays for the love of the game. Aside from Winston for FSU, I don't see a better leader of talented men in the country.
I go back and forth on him. I think he will end up having an OK combine and grade out as a 2nd round pick, which will still make him a first round pick because QB's come off the board fast. Half the league needs one.
I would love to know what Chud and Lombardi think of him though. I would love to hear their thoughts when they break down some of his games.
If you told me I could have any players on Texas A&M though, I'm taking Mike Evans. I could be wrong about that in 3 years when Manziel is the next Favre, but right now I think Evans is going to be a really really good pro.
I don't believe there can be a tipping point. Having a tipping point is what landed us Weeden and Quinn. When your an NFL coaching staff and you draft a QB in the 1st your hitching your wagon to his success. If he fails you fail and you lose your job.
Other FO were dumb enough to hitch to a QB who "fell" when no one else wanted them. Hopefully this FO won't do it again. Either trade up, take the guy at our pick or draft a guy 3rd or later. No more getting a Franchise QB by BPA. It is the exception not the rule. I'm tired or hoping to be the exception instead of hedging your bets with a logical, well prepared decision.
At this point for me it's Teddy depending on availability and trade value(he's not perfect) or fill holes/trade for future picks/Hoyer/late round high potential project. I'd rather not use up all our chips on a bad bet. Gambling on a QB takes patience.
Mid to late first...possibly even 2nd round you get a more accurate feel for that stuff right before the draft. But realistically if we are targeting him...we don't let him past 18 if he is there.
thanks for the tape BPG...I still like the kid saw more than half his game this year. Many who don't like him bring up his current games a lot but he's playing with a banged up thumb on his throwing hand.
One year with Norv...taming those rough edges. Again I don't see how people cannot compare him to Wilson. The bad habits...throwing off that back foot under pressure should be eliminated.
Size...does anyone know the size of his hands? They seem over 9" which is just fine.
Hoyer, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson None are big and mostly why they dropped in the draft to become bargains (obviously not talking about Hoyer although if he turns out just good UDFA is a bargain...lol )
Go for it Canada!
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off! Go Browns! CHRIST HAS RISEN! GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
Quote:<üfont> I don't believe there can be a tipping point. Having a tipping point is what landed us Weeden and Quinn. When your an NFL coaching staff and you draft a QB in the 1st your hitching your wagon to his success. If he fails you fail and you lose your job.
This is a really good point. We'll use the tipping point/value process for the second QB we take in this draft. You get "your guy" when you pick a QB in the first round.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
With what Hoyer showed in limited action I'm confused by the mid round QB people are saying we should take. What are the odds that he's better than Hoyer, who already has time in the system and a familiarity with the players?
I mean when the Skins did it, they had an aging Grossman and John Beck so I get it.. but with a youngish Hoyer I don't see the need to draft a second QB... seems like a wasted pick. The only reason I can see doing that is if you don't have a lot of faith in your first QB, and if that's the case, don't draft him either.
Quote: With what Hoyer showed in limited action I'm confused by the mid round QB people are saying we should take. What are the odds that he's better than Hoyer, who already has time in the system and a familiarity with the players?
I mean when the Skins did it, they had an aging Grossman and John Beck so I get it.. but with a youngish Hoyer I don't see the need to draft a second QB... seems like a wasted pick. The only reason I can see doing that is if you don't have a lot of faith in your first QB, and if that's the case, don't draft him either.
I'm of the same opinion. Hoyer has shown more than any mid round QB may - or may not - do. Sure, we can't tell the future. However, if we need a QB we get him and make damn sure he is the one that we want for the system we want to run. No point drafting a QB who won't fit (Weeden and West Coast). I still think if Weeden had been in the same system 2 years he may - or may not - have been better than now
Hoyer / Campbell - Rookie for me next year.
Get a legit #2 WR.
Get an upgrade at OG and possibly ILB.
Get a running back who is faster than me, No offence Willis - the mind is willing, and all that. Obi is not the answer, Fozzy is a rotation back and Dion is not yet healed. Maybe the new guy - Baker / Barker - meh - just give me a guy who actually freezes people in the box on PA.
Quote: With what Hoyer showed in limited action I'm confused by the mid round QB people are saying we should take. What are the odds that he's better than Hoyer, who already has time in the system and a familiarity with the players?
I mean when the Skins did it, they had an aging Grossman and John Beck so I get it.. but with a youngish Hoyer I don't see the need to draft a second QB... seems like a wasted pick. The only reason I can see doing that is if you don't have a lot of faith in your first QB, and if that's the case, don't draft him either.
I'm of the same opinion. Hoyer has shown more than any mid round QB may - or may not - do. Sure, we can't tell the future. However, if we need a QB we get him and make damn sure he is the one that we want for the system we want to run. No point drafting a QB who won't fit (Weeden and West Coast). I still think if Weeden had been in the same system 2 years he may - or may not - have been better than now
Hoyer / Campbell - Rookie for me next year.
Get a legit #2 WR.
Get an upgrade at OG and possibly ILB.
Get a running back who is faster than me, No offence Willis - the mind is willing, and all that. Obi is not the answer, Fozzy is a rotation back and Dion is not yet healed. Maybe the new guy - Baker / Barker - meh - just give me a guy who actually freezes people in the box on PA.
The Browns have to have a QB in this draft....even if he sits for a year and learns (which I still think is the way to do it). Have an honest competition between Hoyer, Campbell and the rook. But we HAVE to find a leader for this team. Campbell is a good stand-in but not the guy who can really carry a team. Hoyer is very much an unknown. We need a legitimate QB. As we currently have two question marks, we need to cover ourselves and invest in a new hope.
At this point, the only guy I'm 100 percent comfortable with in the first is Bridgewater. As it is likely we don;t get him, I'm ok then waiting to get someone who is more developmental. I'm starting to become a believer in Tajh Boyd.
Quote: With what Hoyer showed in limited action I'm confused by the mid round QB people are saying we should take. What are the odds that he's better than Hoyer, who already has time in the system and a familiarity with the players?
I mean when the Skins did it, they had an aging Grossman and John Beck so I get it.. but with a youngish Hoyer I don't see the need to draft a second QB... seems like a wasted pick. The only reason I can see doing that is if you don't have a lot of faith in your first QB, and if that's the case, don't draft him either.
I think it's an issue of insurance but your right in that we already have that insurance in Hoyer. However a 6th or 7th round QB? Yeah I'd take one and stash him on the PS every other year. If Hoyer fails it would be nice to have another option plus who knows what he could fruit to. You can never have too many QB's. And at a low pick it's worth it.
Yep Hoyer n Campbell are great for us...Just grab a late round guy with the things you want in ur QB, for me id say mobility cuz if we get to you, you better be better than our other guys at avoiding getting hit...
and 1st round get watkins n lee and ur golden
"It has to start somewhere It has to start somehow What better place than here? What better time than now?"
At 18 i take Manziel and never look back its that simple and anyone questioning his leadership doesnt know anything about the kid. He is a bit of a pompous ass but his teammates rally behind him. He brings a spark.
Quote: At 18 i take Manziel and never look back its that simple and anyone questioning his leadership doesnt know anything about the kid. He is a bit of a pompous ass but his teammates rally behind him. He brings a spark.
I agree, pretty much my feeling. I would even take a flyer on another Qb in the mid rounds too. Sort of like the RGIII/Cousins thing. But I know it's not really possible with having Campbell and Hoyer on the roster too.
Quote: Other FO were dumb enough to hitch to a QB who "fell" when no one else wanted them. Hopefully this FO won't do it again. Either trade up, take the guy at our pick or draft a guy 3rd or later. No more getting a Franchise QB by BPA. It is the exception not the rule.
Is it?? Who are some of the top QBs in the league? Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Rothlisberger are usually mentioned among the Top 5, and all 4 of them "slipped" in the draft to varying degrees. Some of the top new guys are Kaepernick and Wilson, both of which slipped past the first round, and both have a higher QB rating this year than Andrew Luck and RG3. Speaking of QB rating ... two of the top 3 this year (granted in less games) are Nick Foles and Josh McCown, who were picked after the first round. Last year's playoff MVP, Joe Flacco, was picked 18th in the first round. Then there's guys like Tony Romo, who went undrafted.
Meanwhile, Eli Manning is having a disastrous year. Andrew Luck is being slightly out-played (stats-wise) By 8th pick Ryan Tannehill. (Tanne has better yards, comp%, and TDs). Number one picks Palmer, Smith and Luck are all ranked in the 20's in QB Rating, one spot behind 3rd round pick Mike Glennon. Cam Newton's QB Rating is .1 percentage points less than ... get this ... Jason Campbell!.
The point is, trading your entire draft away to move up to a top 1 or 2 pick isn't going to guarantee anything. I'd say getting a guy like Peyton Manning with your #1 pick is more the exception than the rule.
He's some combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Vick, and Ryan Leaf. He's going to madden his head coach and OC for not running the offense they want him to run it, ala Mike Vick when he first came out. He has great escapability and has enough arm to make unique plays when things break down. When scrambling around he keeps his eyes downfield and looks to make a throw, not to immediately run. And he does have an innate ability to play football.
Manziel is going to measure something under 6'1. People are going to point at Brees, Vick, and Wilson as proof that short guys can make it in the league. The comparisons fail because he doesn't have the arm of any of those three, and the mad-scrambles that won him the Heisman are going to get him crushed in the NFL. When he's put to the measurables he's going to come in somewhere around 6' 200, where his frame isn't nearly that of Wilson. The ability to escape without getting popped in college won't translate as well to the pro's, where he's going to get crushed. Often. 'Berger can take that punishment. Guys like Vick, Griffin, and Manziel can't. He also has a horrific habit of carrying the ball away from his body. That stuff won't fly in the NFL.
I'm not even going to talk about his mental state, other than to say the guy has had very public struggles with success, so how is he going to handle the failure of the NFL?
In my not-so humble opinion, if you're drafting a guy like Manziel you're trying to catch lightning in a bottle, and those kinds of guys are very poor bets in the 1st round.
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy. Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
Can we stop using Russell Wilson as an example, please? Wilson was prolific but understood that there was a time and place not to throw a pick. Wilson was an incredibly smart QB at both NCState and Wisconsin before he went pro. The guy always had a future in the NFL, although not many saw him being as good as he has been.
Manziel is far too risky, and they both play a far different game.
I'd also be concerned that grown men would not take kindly to Manziel's style of leadership.
But most importantly, I don't think Manziel has the tools with either arm strength, accuracy, or decision making to be a good NFL QB.
Toad -Please get out of my brain! Those are almost my exact thoughts on Manziel.
I would like to add that many times I've watched him he seems to throw a fair number of 50-50 balls that his receivers always seem to make the play on. Those become INTs or worse in the NFL.
Also, in today's NFL there is no time taken to develop a QB. Either they are drafted highly enough to be expected to play day 1 (Weeden) or they were drafted late enough to stick around as a backup for a few years to develop (Hoyer/Campbell). There is no time for a high draft pick (Weeden/Quinn) or high name recognition guy (Colt McCoy) to wait around. Team's want to know what they have and the success of a 3rd round like Russell Wilson increases that pressure on high-mid round QBs.
Personally, I don't think Johnny Football translates to NFL QB. I think Derek Carr, Bridgewater (I a little worry about his slight frame), and my sneaky sleeper Keith Wenning (Ball St.) project as better pros than Manziel. There are others I'm sure but those are my top 3 right now today.
Just curious, was Marquise Lee available when you chose Mike Evans?
Also, Bradley Roby has the physical tools but he just doesn't show up on gameday, I'd stay away from him. He is so over rated by Buckeye fans, same goes for Carlos Hyde, just over rated.
If I'm taking any Buckeye in this draft it's an offensive lineman or Christian Bryant. Bryant is a true leader.
Quote: The point is, trading your entire draft away to move up to a top 1 or 2 pick isn't going to guarantee anything. I'd say getting a guy like Peyton Manning with your #1 pick is more the exception than the rule.
Of course getting a guy like Peyton Manning, who is probably one of the best 2 or 3 QBs of all time, is the exception... That's like saying drafting a running back that's like Walter Payton is the exception...
so if the playoffs started today, these teams and their QBs would be in..
Clearly there is more than one way to get it done.. but when there are 7 #1 overall QBs starting in the NFL and 5 of them are in the playoffs (and one of the one that's not already has 2 rings), that has to mean something....
Now to be fair, there have been other QBs taken #1 overall since Peyton Manning that have washed out... a couple on the list are with a second teams, some are now back-ups, etc.. I get that..
So who are the others? Couch - Never had a chance Carr - Never had a chance J. Russell - Arguably the biggest bust of all time Bradford - Jury still out but struggling Vick - Had some success, on his way out Palmer - Had some success, on his way out
So since 1998, there have been 11 QBs taken #1 overall, 8 of them are still in the NFL and 5 of them are in the playoffs...
Quote: So since 1998, there have been 11 QBs taken #1 overall ... and 5 of them are in the playoffs...
So that's less than a 50% success rate.
Also, of your QBs in the playoffs, 7 of the 12 were picked 18th or less. And that doesn't include guys like Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo. I'm just saying, you don't have to mortgage your future to pick a guy #1, especially if there's no guarantee that they'll pan out. What's more important is putting them in a good situation, and giving them time to develop as a pro. Taking a guy outside of the #1 spot won't kill us, granted we do our homework, and give them time to develop.
Too soon we throw these guys to the wolves, and watch them struggle because they don't have an offensive line and develop Tim Couch disease within a few seasons. Or we throw them in before they're comfortable with the system or the speed in the NFL and they lose all confidence in their skills.
Quote: they were drafted late enough to stick around as a backup for a few years to develop (Hoyer/Campbell).
Not to detract from your post which I agree with but Campbell was a 1st round pick for the Redskins. He started for them for a few years, then started for the Raiders, then he backed up Cutler and was a psuedo-backup here. *edit* Campbell sat his first season behind Brunell and was named starter in November of his 2nd season..
Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins being mid-late round guys being forced into action is also another example of what you are talking about. (And a bunch of lower round guys get tossed in sometimes like Max Hall, John Skelton, and Jeff Tuel)
The only exceptions I can think of are Brock Osweiler and Ryan Mallett who are sitting behind elite QBs.
I'm still fascinated by Peter Lalich. I hope someone signs him eventually, I want to see how that turns out.
People are seemingly dismissing these odds, yet if they tried the odds on later picks they would be terrible.
What we see compared to what NFL GM's see are two different things. I just hope if this FO sees "their guy" in this draft, that they take the necessary steps it takes to draft him.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
Quote: ....if this FO sees "their guy" in this draft, that they take the necessary steps it takes to draft him.
Agreed, but without going the Washington/RGIII route. In retrospect, they overpaid and now the whole issue is in turmoil...
I guess that depends. RG3 had a great rookie year and now a bad second year. That's not so unusual. I don't know what the future holds for RG3. If over the course of his career he gets a couple of SB rings and makes regular trips to the playoffs, would you say the same thing?
I don't really look for this FO to do an "RG3 type deal". It's not Banners MO to overpay so heavily. I guess my point is that if they do see Manziel as their guy, I don't really think there is a tipping point.
People seem to try to treat the QB position like any other position sometimes. It's simply not. They get over drafted. They aren't often times seen as BPA. You usually won't land "your guy" by going the BPA route. So if you see a QB you consider "your guy", you shouldn't risk losing out on him if you feel there is ANY chance he'll be selected before your next pick.
A FO needs to be sold on that guy. And they need to make the investment it takes to get him. So many teams need QB's that if you use BPA on every pick, you won't get the QB you have targeted. And when it comes to QB, it's not an "insert name here" type of position.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
Quote: Your chances of success with a #1 overall QB are certainly better, but it is still a 50/50 proposition.
I think it really is a lot better than 50/50.. if you take out Couch and Carr, who had almost 0 chance of success the numbers get better.. then there was Russell, who even most of the people on this board knew was not worthy of a #1 pick...
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