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I kind of feel like this is Tim Tebow arguments all over again  I'm choosing this "angle" because I've made enough actual football points that seem to fall on deaf ears. All Tebow does is "win games." Well he's unemployed for a reason. A lot of it has to do with the media circus that follows him (some of that is his own doing). Manziel is like Allen Iverson. The small, exciting, flashy and feel good underdog story. Unless you build your entire system around his shortcomings (was extremely hard for Philly to do for AI and that's just a 15 man roster) I don't see how his style of play will work. Even if you do, that doesn't mean you will win come playoff time against the big boys, if he even survives that long. People just don't want to admit that he absolutely 100% has to improve from the pocket or it won't work. When a dominantly scrambling QB that doesn't really pass from the pocket with a weak arm wins the Superbowl I will possibly buy in to Manziel. It's never happened before and I don't see it happening. I think a huge part of the problem is that some fans haven't experienced winning in so long they'll settle for flash over winning. I'll try to explain with this example: -Manziel in a bad play - Pressure arrives, read isn't open. He runs out of the pocket and scrambling for his life for a dozen seconds until the entire play has completely broken down to nothing and everyone on the field has resorted to scramble mode as well. Then throws up a pass to Mike Evans. -Bridgewater in a bad play - He favours a more suitable play, tosses a boring 5 yard completion for a first down, avoiding the entire chaos of the Manziel play. One of those examples is 'special' and 'exciting' to watch, but also one that tends to rely heavily on an athletic advantage and breakdown in discipline that are unlikely to be at the NFL level consistently.
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Ok, I only watched a couple of Manziel games before (LSU and Bama), but since every Johnny fanboy on here was gushing about his Bowl game, I watched the condensed version with every Manziel play from that game.
I will preface this by saying that since this thread is 90% a love fest that I will concentrate on his negatives and why I ultimately think that he will bust in the NFL:
1. I'll start with the probably most controversial one: he's NOT an accurate passer. Not sure what most of you see when saying this, but in that Duke game he didn't hit a receiver in stride for almost an entire half. The last TD before the half qualifies, but was more of a good read and throw to a spot, he's good at that btw, especially on the boundary. His best throw was the TD deep with 5min left to make it a 3p game.
1.1 He threw behind his receivers ALL DAY. It was the biggest constant in this game. Especially on routes over the middle, even on screens. I saw wide open receivers wait for the ball or slow down to make the catch. I doubt he will have that luxury in the NFL, where there's tighter coverage.
2. I'll follow it up with another shocker: he sucks vs pressure.
Sure, most NFL QBs, esp. College QBs do, but since everyone and their mom gush over how "electric" Johnny is at that, I was incredibly disappointed. That's the part where having 2 Top 15 OL helped him out BIG TIME. When he was rushed, he was good at evading the first rusher, but it was all backyard football after that, which won't work in the NFL. You'll never see him make that jump-in-trenches pile-hop back for a TD in the NFL. If he ever thinks about jumping into a handful of DL like that, chances are much better that he will never do it again than throwing a TD out of it. It was an electric great looking play, but it was an electric great looking COLLEGE play. Forget it.
Anyway, when he was rushed, most of his throws didn't produce. He even had a couple of those stupid rainbow passes where he didn't even know where he threw it (think the Bama game completion). In the NFL, where every 5yd of the field is covered by some defender, someone will pick it up and jog for an INT-Ret TD. Those are as bad as Weeden's flippers and like Weeden, he does them constantly. They're part of his game. To make it worse, he does them while taking big hits. I applaud him for his toughness and not wanting to give up yds, but that's anything but smart.
3. Without the threat of his feet, we would not even talk about a top 5 round QB here and considering the longevity of "feet QBs" in the NFL, it would be incredibly stupid to waste a top 10 pick on this guy.
4. His passes are in the air a long time. Sure, he covers a lot of the field. He CAN throw deep and all over, no doubt. But he's more a "dropper" than thrower. His passes lack zip, add that to the tighter NFL coverages, more rush/less protection he'll face.
5. Last but not least: I know many love his on-field personality and absolute will to win games, but I think it is a result of his overall personality, which is that of a spoiled idiot, who always got what he wanted and never had to experience losing. Imagine he pulls the crap he did with Evans with some of the no1 WR divas in the NFL, including Gordon or with the older and smarter OL who are going to block for him in the NFL, when they lose a couple of games early in his career and he faces adversity for the first time in his life. It'll be ugly. If you want a potential 1-2 win season with a good shot at the no1 overall pick and chance at a real franchise QB, go ahead and draft Johnny. He has locker room cancer/divider written all over him imho. The NFL are grown men with harsh backgrounds. They won't be impressed by a golden spoon crybaby, because that's how he will be perceived and greated, even within his own locker room.
RG3 was a model citizen, without Johnny's ego, and even with him you see and hear some light version of what I am alluding to.
After watching this game, he reminded me of another QB: Brian Hoyer, the quicker version….He isn't afraid to take risks, even though he lacks ability (arm AND accuracy)….and like him, he's all hype and unlike Hoyer, not only on this board, but nation wide.
Of course, the QBs I backed in the past (Roethli, Gabbert and Weeden) were all prototypical pocket QBs and two of them busted hard, so what do I know. It's just my opinion, but Johnny Football is not an NFL starting QB. At best he becomes a much shorter version of Kaepernick, who I think is overrated to begin with. That's his absolute high end ceiling imho, which he will never reach because of injuries and/or off field drama/ego. I pray we don't pick him. Like RG3 it'd be "electric" at first, but if you want SUSTAINED success and a FRANCHISE QB, then STAY. THE HELL. AWAY.
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I'm iffy on that Kaep comparison. Colin can rifle the hell out of a football. Manziel doesn't get half the zip he does.
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Absolutely no mistake about it. The worst possible scenario here would be if we passed up one of the big 3 with the sole thought that Hoyer is our guy going forward.
I agree with what you're saying, but if we miss out on the big 3 it won't be because they are counting on Hoyer to be the man, it'll be because we stood pat at 4 and those QBs (Teddy, Johnny, Bortles) went 1-2-3.
At least I hope it's not because they think Hoyer is the man. While Hoyer showed us something positive in the small sample set we were given before the injury, it would be a huge gamble to stand pat with him when we are in position to draft one of these 3 QBs.
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I'm iffy on that Kaep comparison. Colin can rifle the hell out of a football. Manziel doesn't get half the zip he does.
I'd agree with that. DJ is right in that Kaep is a bit overrated and has been somewhat exposed this year. Without his feet he'd be a bottom third QB. Still damn good though, and he has a hell of a strong arm.
Btw, I appreciate the breakdowns you and DJ did on why you think Manziel won't make it in the NFL. Definitely gives me food for thought.
DJ, I thought your breakdown of the bowl game was well thought out ...until you hit point #5 ...which made zero sense and was filled with personal bias. It reminded me of all your Weeden posts. I am still amazed that someone who knows as much about football as you do continue to make posts that claim there was no difference between Wedeen and Hoyer.
LOL - The Rish will be upset with this news as well. KS just doesn't prioritize winning...
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1.1 He threw behind his receivers ALL DAY. It was the biggest constant in this game. Especially on routes over the middle, even on screens. I saw wide open receivers wait for the ball or slow down to make the catch. I doubt he will have that luxury in the NFL, where there's tighter coverage.
If you think he did that vs. Duke, then don't watch Teddy in his Bowl game (I'm assuming you haven't). Duke's got three good corners. Miami's got one good one and a bunch of bad ones.
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You and Candy are right, Kaep wasn't the best comp and it wasn't meant as an ability-comp, just general/overall high end "success ceiling"…and again, that's the absolute best case I see. Whoever sees a Wilson is being delusional imho btw and is putting a lot of makeup on Johnny. Wilson was much smarter and more accurate.
As for my 5th point: I really don't have any bias towards Manziel, why should I at this point? I just don't like him as a top 5/10 pick. He's a roll of the dice and I don't see enough upside with him to roll it that early, that's simply my opinion. Maybe my words sounded harder than meant, but I think he is overconfident to a fault and that's risky when you play in a league with thousands of former College stars, with many of them being similar in mindset. I see a total boom/bust pick with a capped boom.
As for Weeden/Hoyer: I really don't want to go there again, but what I actually said was that they are totally different in style but comparable in effectiveness. It looks like I was way off with that now, probably because I overrated Weeden's abilities and underrated Hoyer's, but as long as that yds/PA is the same, it's hard to maintain that Hoyer is so much better too imho, as much better QBs tend to be much better there too. I think there's some overrating going on on the other side too, but that's a discussion for next season's QB-disappointment. We will see.
It's all about odds for me, that's why I was ok to roll the dice with Weeden, who I knew was a boom bust player and said so from day one. I would not have picked him in the top 10 though because of this risk attached. Same with Manziel, although I see an even lower ceiling (I know that's sounds stupid now, as Weeden as failed). Of course, he has his feet to make up for it….that's probably a part of a QB's game I still tend to underrate, but if the intent is to draft a true franchise/championship caliber QB, than take a look around the league who are those QBs and where they earn their money's worth. It's not playing hop-around-jump ball football. Anyway, I'd be ok to roll the dice on him in the low 1st/early 2nd, simply because he'd be a clear talent upgrade to Hoyer, although being similar in style.
I'd be ok if we draft Evans first and THEN Johnny, but chances for that are looking slim right now, but you never know what happens (and transpires) from here until draft weekend.
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j/c... Oh, dammit. http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamihea...-johnny-manzielLeBron supports Johnny Manziel NEW YORK -- LeBron James has been mentoring Johnny Manziel for months and soon hopes to formalize a business alliance with the star quarterback. James James Earlier this week, ESPN reported Manziel had chosen to sign with James' marketing company, LRMR. On Thursday, James said he didn't know if the deal was official but said he was looking forward to working with Manziel. Manziel said in a recent interview that he sought out James' advice last summer when he was being investigated by the NCAA this summer for signing autographs for memorabilia brokers. "We're happy we're able to be a friend of his and be able to help," James said before the Miami Heat played the New York Knicks on Thursday night. "He reached out to me when he was going through a lot of off-the-field things that I didn't really -- that I thought it was just overblown. He's not the only kid who went to a college frat party or the only college kid to have fun. But obviously he's Johnny Manziel, so it is blown out of proportion." James said he routinely sent text messages to Manziel before and after Texas A&M games to offer encouragement to the QB. Manziel recently spent time in Miami before he made his decision to enter the NFL draft and was seen sitting courtside at a Heat-Golden State Warriors game last week. LRMR is run by James' friend and business partner Maverick Carter, who has close ties with Nike and has negotiated numerous marketing deals for James in the past nine years. "When the opportunity was brought to me, I just told him if he's willing to listen to my advice, I was willing to give it," James said. "I was texting him weekly, before the games and after the games. I didn't know it would lead to us being together with business, but I was happy to help."
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Quote:
Ok, I only watched a couple of Manziel games before (LSU and Bama), but since every Johnny fanboy on here was gushing about his Bowl game, I watched the condensed version with every Manziel play from that game.
I will preface this by saying that since this thread is 90% a love fest that I will concentrate on his negatives and why I ultimately think that he will bust in the NFL:
1. I'll start with the probably most controversial one: he's NOT an accurate passer. Not sure what most of you see when saying this, but in that Duke game he didn't hit a receiver in stride for almost an entire half. The last TD before the half qualifies, but was more of a good read and throw to a spot, he's good at that btw, especially on the boundary. His best throw was the TD deep with 5min left to make it a 3p game.
1.1 He threw behind his receivers ALL DAY. It was the biggest constant in this game. Especially on routes over the middle, even on screens. I saw wide open receivers wait for the ball or slow down to make the catch. I doubt he will have that luxury in the NFL, where there's tighter coverage.
2. I'll follow it up with another shocker: he sucks vs pressure.
Sure, most NFL QBs, esp. College QBs do, but since everyone and their mom gush over how "electric" Johnny is at that, I was incredibly disappointed. That's the part where having 2 Top 15 OL helped him out BIG TIME. When he was rushed, he was good at evading the first rusher, but it was all backyard football after that, which won't work in the NFL. You'll never see him make that jump-in-trenches pile-hop back for a TD in the NFL. If he ever thinks about jumping into a handful of DL like that, chances are much better that he will never do it again than throwing a TD out of it. It was an electric great looking play, but it was an electric great looking COLLEGE play. Forget it.
Anyway, when he was rushed, most of his throws didn't produce. He even had a couple of those stupid rainbow passes where he didn't even know where he threw it (think the Bama game completion). In the NFL, where every 5yd of the field is covered by some defender, someone will pick it up and jog for an INT-Ret TD. Those are as bad as Weeden's flippers and like Weeden, he does them constantly. They're part of his game. To make it worse, he does them while taking big hits. I applaud him for his toughness and not wanting to give up yds, but that's anything but smart.
3. Without the threat of his feet, we would not even talk about a top 5 round QB here and considering the longevity of "feet QBs" in the NFL, it would be incredibly stupid to waste a top 10 pick on this guy.
4. His passes are in the air a long time. Sure, he covers a lot of the field. He CAN throw deep and all over, no doubt. But he's more a "dropper" than thrower. His passes lack zip, add that to the tighter NFL coverages, more rush/less protection he'll face.
5. Last but not least: I know many love his on-field personality and absolute will to win games, but I think it is a result of his overall personality, which is that of a spoiled idiot, who always got what he wanted and never had to experience losing. Imagine he pulls the crap he did with Evans with some of the no1 WR divas in the NFL, including Gordon or with the older and smarter OL who are going to block for him in the NFL, when they lose a couple of games early in his career and he faces adversity for the first time in his life. It'll be ugly. If you want a potential 1-2 win season with a good shot at the no1 overall pick and chance at a real franchise QB, go ahead and draft Johnny. He has locker room cancer/divider written all over him imho. The NFL are grown men with harsh backgrounds. They won't be impressed by a golden spoon crybaby, because that's how he will be perceived and greated, even within his own locker room.
RG3 was a model citizen, without Johnny's ego, and even with him you see and hear some light version of what I am alluding to.
After watching this game, he reminded me of another QB: Brian Hoyer, the quicker version….He isn't afraid to take risks, even though he lacks ability (arm AND accuracy)….and like him, he's all hype and unlike Hoyer, not only on this board, but nation wide.
Of course, the QBs I backed in the past (Roethli, Gabbert and Weeden) were all prototypical pocket QBs and two of them busted hard, so what do I know. It's just my opinion, but Johnny Football is not an NFL starting QB. At best he becomes a much shorter version of Kaepernick, who I think is overrated to begin with. That's his absolute high end ceiling imho, which he will never reach because of injuries and/or off field drama/ego. I pray we don't pick him. Like RG3 it'd be "electric" at first, but if you want SUSTAINED success and a FRANCHISE QB, then STAY. THE HELL. AWAY.
You and I saw different Bowl games. He definitely started slow and the Duke defense had him on his heels but he recovered great and was very accurate for the latter half of the game.
There's argument that his "escapability" won;t be as effective in the pros and it very well may not but what it speaks to is the kid's awareness in the pocket. He feels the pressure incredibly well and acts accordingly. In the NFL, you can coach that up to pass it off to your safety valve receiver or jsut scramble for a couple.
I don;t know what you're talking about that he has no zip on his passes. I think his arm has alot of pop and his release is quick. If you want to watch balls that hang (insert laugh here), watch Bortles throw.
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Excellent post. We disagree about the rankings of the three, but agree on most things.
My contention is that I noticed that Bortles did not recognize the safeties and look them off like the other two. He threw some balls into double coverage that bothered me.
I am not saying I am right. We are debating about smaller issues. Keep it coming. That was fun to read.
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I am not saying this because of our running feud, but man, you don't have a clue about QBs, do you?
You have always been off on these guys. Your evaluation of Manziel's accuracy is so far off it is scary.
I really am NOT saying that in a mean way, but you might want to watch that tone of authority when discussing qbs.
You are kinda like YTown in that you are a number and stat guy. When you try to "see" things...........well......I'm not sure what you are seeing. And being a numbers and stat guy is not a bad thing. It's just that some should probably stick to what they are good at.
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Bortles also let the play run right into the 8th man in the box twice in the bowl game...maybe even the same play call.
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I really am NOT saying that in a mean way, but you might want to watch that tone of authority when discussing qbs.
Sir, ok, Sir !
I'm starting to get why you're such a sucker for authoritarian regimes running the Browns, you really have a knack for backing the worst of the worst. Guess it takes one to see one….in the epic words of Eric Cartman: "RESPECT MY AUTHORITAH"
And thanks for staying "classy", lol
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Didn't mean it that way. Nevermind.
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I know and fully believe you. You just ARE that way, naturally, it's incredibly exhausting but ok….and funny too, cause your full of contradictories and double standards for a guy thinking he's a straight shooter, that's all. It's really like discussing with a child or a schizo and THAT I don't really mean as an insult, if anything, it's actually a compliment, considering it's about fandom on here. Back to Johnny….whatever happened to respecting minority opinions on a matter to balance the bad mob mentality? Is that not board en vogue anymore? Damn, I always miss trends
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I watch the kid and he is a better version of Steve young in almost every way and that is comparing Johny to Steve as a senior. Young had a quicker release and did a better job of setting his feet but the big difference is Young was a clean cut kid from a mormon school and Johny is an pompous ass that gets himself into frat party trouble.
If Houston goes QB at 1, I think its Manziel. If not, I think he goes to the Browns.
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Thought this was interesting 
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What strikes me the most about those numbers, however they are defined, is how close they are.
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Are we one year too early?
I like Manziel and Bridgewater in this draft, but I keep thinking about the what ifs.. What if Mariota came out early?
What if Jameis Winston was a Soph(RS) and could come out? What if this were the 2015 draft?
I think Winston and Mariota are better prospects than any other QB in this draft. I also think Hundley could shoot up the boards by next year. He kind of has a Terrelle Pryor feel about him now, but by next year, he could more of Cam Newton type player.
If we draft Manziel or Bridgewater and they are the answer then great, but if they are not and we go into the 2015 draft in the top 10, do we do it all over again with Mariota, Winston, and Hundley coming out. Also wouldn't forget about Bryce Petty
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JC Even though he's not who I want, this is for all of you that do: 
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jc, since the other Johnny thread is locked now...
I just watched the A&M vs LSU game and whoever still drafts him in the top 10 after that garbage of a performance is simply nuts. That's the kind of D he'll face in the NFL and he still had a top 5 pick LT protecting him and a 1st round WR to throw to...horrible game
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to be fair, DJ, every QB has a bad game.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
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Injured thumb which caused him to have trouble holding onto the ball. Cant hold it against him just like with Carr and his bowl game in which he hurt his shoulder early on.
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Thanks for that information, didn't know that, so he's partly excused. Was wondering as his passes were floating worse than I remember and he put up more than a handful of "Quinn"-like deep throws out of bounds
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Guy's a leader of men. We don't have that on this team. Nobody.
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Quote:
jc, since the other Johnny thread is locked now...
I just watched the A&M vs LSU game and whoever still drafts him in the top 10 after that garbage of a performance is simply nuts. That's the kind of D he'll face in the NFL and he still had a top 5 pick LT protecting him and a 1st round WR to throw to...horrible game
I looked at the draft break down footage of this game after hearing how badly Manziel played. Admittedly he didn't have his best performance. What I saw though was a guy extending plays, For the most part when he ran he was productive. Overall his poise in the pocket and decision making could still be seen. He made several nice throws on the run. Some of the lack of execution in the passing game goes to the receivers in that game.
Even with the great defensive game plan LSU employed in that game it was less decisive than say, the Seahawks dismantling of one of the greatest QBs in NFL history. If Manning with all of his accomplishments can be absolutely stifled by a defense then I can't be overly swayed by a single sub par outing by Manziel. Especially when measured against his entire body of work.
Last edited by guard dawg; 02/02/14 11:24 PM.
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Bortle Kombat #1 overall!?!? That would be an ideal scenario for us.
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Bortle Kombat #1 overall!?!? That would be an ideal scenario for us.
agreed and a half.
If we were guaranteed one of Carr, Manziel, or Bridgewater at 4 without having to move... 
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to be fair, DJ, every QB has a bad game.
Not Peyton Manning-- Oh wait... 
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/hfMNC7T.jpg) "I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
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So I take it Houston is the least likely team in the league to draft Carr right?  Houston taking Bortles would be my draft day Christmas. I really can't see that happening.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,693 |
Quote:
JC
Even though he's not who I want, this is for all of you that do:
Ditto
"I am undeterred and I am undaunted." --Kevin Stefanski "Big hairy American winning machines." --Baker Mayfield #gmstrong
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 17,850 |
Quote:
Quote:
Bortle Kombat #1 overall!?!? That would be an ideal scenario for us.
agreed and a half.
If we were guaranteed one of Carr, Manziel, or Bridgewater at 4 without having to move...
if Bortles, Carr go in the first 2 picks, then I'll be extremely happy! 
(I think it still goes Bridgewater, Manziel w/ someone trading up with the Rams for #2)
#gmstrong
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11,465
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11,465 |
Best case scenario would be Manziel going #1.
At that point, you do what you have to in order to get Bridgewater at #2, shy of some idiotic deal like the Redskins swung.
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Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,447
Dawg Talker
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Dawg Talker
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,447 |
I think the fact that we would easily win any trade up battle might shy any other teams from trying too hard. Sure they might make an offer but they know theyll lose if we are interested. For that reason I don't think we'll see any teams try to "run up the price". Huge bonus for us IMO.
All that said I'd still trade a heck of a lot if Teddy dropped to 2. Like 4, 26,+
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 40,399 |
I wish I could get on board with all of the Bridgewater love.. I really do, I just can't for some reason. I've watched him play a number of games and he looks fundamentally sound but nothing jumps out at me and screams, "This kid is special"...
yebat' Putin
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Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 55,499
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 55,499 |
That's because you can't see "brains."
There are actually people wanting Carr. The guy can't handle pressure, he gets nervous and his mechanics fall apart. He is Captain Check Down. However, people can "see" that he is big. They "see" he has a nice delivery. They "see" he has a big arm.
They saw that w/Weeden, too.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 39,682
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 39,682 |
Quote:
Quote:
JC
Even though he's not who I want, this is for all of you that do:
Ditto
Johnny reminds me of a actor. Starred in a movie.....maybe early 80's....he could jump in to dreams....Dream Jumpers maybe? I'll have to Google.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong ![[Linked Image]](http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/small-gator-chomp.gif)
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,234
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 7,234 |
All I can think of is Dennis Quaid in Dreamscape. Or Freddy Krueger. 
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,827
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,827 |
Yes dreamscape but not the Dennis Quaid. Who played the bad guy.
Am I perfect? No
Am I trying to be a better person?
Also no
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